[Objective] The aim was to study the refined forecast method of daily highest temperature in Wugang City from July to September. IM[ethod] By dint of ECMWF mode product and T231 in 2009 and 2010 and daily maximum temp...[Objective] The aim was to study the refined forecast method of daily highest temperature in Wugang City from July to September. IM[ethod] By dint of ECMWF mode product and T231 in 2009 and 2010 and daily maximum temperature in the station in corresponding period, multi-factors similar forecast method to select forecast sample, multivariate regression multi-mode integration MOS method, after dynamic corrected mode error and regression error, dynamic forecast equation was concluded to formulate the daily maximum temperature forecast in 24 -120 h in Wugang City from July to September. [ Result] Through selection, error correction, the daily maximum temperature equation in Wugang City from July to September was concluded. Through multiple random sampling, F test was made to pass test with significant test of 0.1. [ Conclusionl The method integrated domestic and foreign forecast mode, made full use of useful information of many modes, absorbed each others advantages, con- sidered local regional environment, lessen mode and regression error, and improved forecast accuracy.展开更多
文摘[Objective] The aim was to study the refined forecast method of daily highest temperature in Wugang City from July to September. IM[ethod] By dint of ECMWF mode product and T231 in 2009 and 2010 and daily maximum temperature in the station in corresponding period, multi-factors similar forecast method to select forecast sample, multivariate regression multi-mode integration MOS method, after dynamic corrected mode error and regression error, dynamic forecast equation was concluded to formulate the daily maximum temperature forecast in 24 -120 h in Wugang City from July to September. [ Result] Through selection, error correction, the daily maximum temperature equation in Wugang City from July to September was concluded. Through multiple random sampling, F test was made to pass test with significant test of 0.1. [ Conclusionl The method integrated domestic and foreign forecast mode, made full use of useful information of many modes, absorbed each others advantages, con- sidered local regional environment, lessen mode and regression error, and improved forecast accuracy.
