This study employs a chance-constrained data envelopment analysis (CDEA) approach with two models (model A and model B) to decompose provincial productivity growth in Vietnamese agriculture from 1995 to 2007 into tech...This study employs a chance-constrained data envelopment analysis (CDEA) approach with two models (model A and model B) to decompose provincial productivity growth in Vietnamese agriculture from 1995 to 2007 into technological progress and efficiency change. The differences between the chance - constrained programming model A and model B are assumptions imposed on the covariance matrix. The decomposition allows us to identify the contributions of technical change and the improvement in technical efficiency to productivity growth in Vietnamese production. Sixty-one provinces in Vietnam are classified into Mekong - technology and other -technology categories. We conduct a Mann-Whitney test to verify whether the two samples, the Mekong technology province sample and the other technology sample, are drawn from the same productivity change populations. The result of the Mann-Whitney test indicates that the differences between the Mekong technology category and the other technology category from two models are more significant. Two important questions are whether some provinces in the samples could maintain their relative efficiency rank positions in comparison with the others over the study period and how to further examine the agreements between the two models. The Kruskal - Wallis test statistic shows that technical efficiency from both models for some provinces are higher than those of them in the study period. The Malmquist results show that production frontier has contracted by around 1.3 percent and 0.31 percent from chance-constrained model A and model B, respectively, a year on average over the sample period. To examine the agreements or disagreements in the total factor productivity indexes we compute the correlation between Malmquist indexes, which is positive and not very high. Thus there is a little discrepancy between the two Malmquist indexes, estimated from the chance - constrained models A and B.展开更多
This study applies a stochastic frontier production approach to decompose the sources of total productivity (TFP) growth into technical progress and changes in technical efficiency of 8057 firms in Vietnamese manufact...This study applies a stochastic frontier production approach to decompose the sources of total productivity (TFP) growth into technical progress and changes in technical efficiency of 8057 firms in Vietnamese manufacturing industries during 2003-2007. Using both total manufacturing industry and sub-manufacturing industrial regressions, the analysis focuses on the trend of technological progress (TP) and technical efficiency change (TEC), and the role of productivity change in economic growth. According to the estimated results, the annual technical progress for the manufacturing industry and sub-manufacturing industries are calculated directly from the estimated parameters of the translog stochastic frontier production function by taking a partial derivative of output with respect to time t. The average technical changes in manufacturing industry and sub-manufacturing industries are positive, with an average technical change about 5.2%, 5.8%, 5.4%, 11.8%, 4.6%, 4.1%, 7.3%, 4.8%, 4.8% and 4.8% for total sample, food products & beverages, textile & wearing apparel, footwear, paper & products, industrial chemicals, rubber & plastic products, non- metallic mineral, basic & fabricated metal and other sub-industries, respectively. Total TFP in the manufacturing sector has grown at the annual rate of 0.052, although the rate of growth decreased continuously during the sample period. For the sub-industry estimates during the sample period, TFP grew fastest in the footwear sub-industry, with annual average growth rate of 11.8%, followed by the rubber & plastic products with a rate of 7.3%, and the food products & beverages with a rate of 5.8% per annum.展开更多
This paper proposes a new approach for ranking efficiency units in data envelopment analysis as a modification of the super-efficiency models developed by Tone [1]. The new approach based on slacks-based measure of ef...This paper proposes a new approach for ranking efficiency units in data envelopment analysis as a modification of the super-efficiency models developed by Tone [1]. The new approach based on slacks-based measure of efficiency (SBM) for dealing with objective function used to classify all of the decision-making units allows the ranking of all inefficient DMUs and overcomes the disadvantages of infeasibility. This method also is applied to rank super-efficient scores for the sample of 145 agricultural bank branches in Viet Nam during 2007-2010. We then compare the estimated results from the new SCI model and the exsisting SBM model by using some statistical tests.展开更多
The objective of this research is to examine impacts of exchange rate volatility and FDI on efficiency of the Vietnamese agricultural sector at the provincial level for the period 1998-2011. Due to the characteristic ...The objective of this research is to examine impacts of exchange rate volatility and FDI on efficiency of the Vietnamese agricultural sector at the provincial level for the period 1998-2011. Due to the characteristic of high uncertainty in agricultural production, the chance-constrained programming model would be used to estimate efficiency of the agricultural production sector. In order to study impacts of exchange rate volatility and FDI, we employ the two-stage model. In the first stage, we use the chance-constrained programming model to measure technical efficiency and ARIMA model to quantify exchange rate volatility. In the second stage, we use the fixed effect model to evaluate impacts of exchange rate volatility and FDI on efficiency of agricultural production in poor and rich provinces. The estimated results show that fluctuation in exchange rate volatility would reduce efficiency in agricultural production but FDI has an insignificant impact on the efficient production in Vietnam agricultural sector.展开更多
In this paper we consider the problem of determining the optimal time to buy an asset in a position of an uptrend or downtrend in the financial market and currency market as well as other markets. Asset price is model...In this paper we consider the problem of determining the optimal time to buy an asset in a position of an uptrend or downtrend in the financial market and currency market as well as other markets. Asset price is modeled as a geometric Brownian motion with drift being a two-state Markov chain. Based on observations of asset prices, investors want to detect the change points of price trends as accurately as possible, so that they can make the decision to buy. Using filtering techniques and stochastic analysis, we will develop the optimal boundary at which investors implement their decisions when the posterior probability process reaches a certain threshold.展开更多
Although cryopreservation of embryos has been used in most terrestrial animals, the application of this technique has not been succeeded for aquatic animals. In this study, the authors investigate the effect of differ...Although cryopreservation of embryos has been used in most terrestrial animals, the application of this technique has not been succeeded for aquatic animals. In this study, the authors investigate the effect of different combinations of sucrose （SUC, C12H22OH） and cryoprotectants （CPAs） on the survival of the catfish embryos （Pangasidae hypophthalmus） at low temperatures （4, 0 and -20 ℃） for short-term storage. For this aim, embryos with somites and optic cups were exposed to different combinations of sucrose with methanol （SUC ＋ MeOH）, 1.2-propylene glycol （SUC ＋ PROH） and ethylene glycol （SUC ＋ EG） at four concentrations ratios： （1） 0.5 M SUC ＋ 0.5 M CPA; （2） 1 M SUC ＋ 0.5 M CPA; （3） 0.5 M SUC ＋ 1 M CPA; （4） 1 M SUC ＋ 1 M CPA for 40 min at 4, 0 and -20 ℃. Embryos kept in water at room temperature （RT）, 4, 0 and -20℃ were used as controls. The survival rate was expressed as a percentage of hatched embryos per total embryos treated. The results showed that the hatching rate declined significantly when embryos were stored in water at 0 ℃ and -20℃. For embryos at 0 ℃ storage, the highest survival rate （87.78%） was obtained with 1 M SUC ＋ 1 M MeOH combination while at -20 ℃, only embryos in the combined treatments of 0.5 M SUC ＋ 1 MEG and 0.5 M SUC ＋ 1 M PROH reached the hatching stage （40% and 83.33%, respectively）. In conclusion, the results showed that the catfish embryos are sensitive to sub-zero temperatures and the combined treatment of 0.5 M sucrose and 1 M propylene glycol can be used to protect catfish embryos from damages caused by low temperature （0 ℃ and -20 ℃）.展开更多
In this paper, we present an application of Genetic Programming (GP) to Vietnamese CPI in?ation one-step prediction problem. This is a new approach in building a good forecasting model, and then applying inflation for...In this paper, we present an application of Genetic Programming (GP) to Vietnamese CPI in?ation one-step prediction problem. This is a new approach in building a good forecasting model, and then applying inflation forecasts in Vietnam in current stage. The study introduces the within-sample and the out-of-samples one-step-ahead forecast errors which have positive correlation and approximate to a linear function with positive slope in prediction models by GP. We also build Vector Autoregression (VAR) model to forecast CPI in quaterly data and compare with the models created by GP. The experimental results show that the Genetic Programming can produce the prediction models having better accuracy than Vector Autoregression models. We have no relavant variables (m2, ex) of monthly data in the VAR model, so no prediction results exist to compare with models created by GP and we just forecast CPI basing on models of GP with previous data of CPI.展开更多
This paper considered an autoregressive time series where the slope contains random components with non-negative values. The authors determine the stationary condition of the series to estimate its parameters by the q...This paper considered an autoregressive time series where the slope contains random components with non-negative values. The authors determine the stationary condition of the series to estimate its parameters by the quasi-maximum likelihood method. The authors also simulates and estimates the coefficients of the simulation chain. In this paper, we consider modeling and forecasting gold chain on the free market in Hanoi, Vietnam.展开更多
To solve the selling problem which is resembled to the buying problem in [1], in this paper we solve the problem of determining the optimal time to sell a property in a location the drift of the asset drops from a hig...To solve the selling problem which is resembled to the buying problem in [1], in this paper we solve the problem of determining the optimal time to sell a property in a location the drift of the asset drops from a high value to a smaller one at some random change-point. This change-point is not directly observable for the investor, but it is partially observable in the sense that it coincides with one of the jump times of some exogenous Poisson process representing external shocks, and these jump times are assumed to be observable. The asset price is modeled as a geometric Brownian motion with a drift that initially exceeds the discount rate, but with the opposite relation after an unobservable and exponentially distributed time and thus, we model the drift as a two-state Markov chain. Using filtering and martingale techniques, stochastic analysis transform measurement, we reduce the problem to a one-dimensional optimal stopping problem. We also establish the optimal boundary at which the investor should liquidate the asset when the price process hit the boundary at first time.展开更多
In this paper, we consider the problem to determine the optimal time to sell an asset that its price conforms to the Black-Schole model but its drift is a discrete random variable taking one of two given values and th...In this paper, we consider the problem to determine the optimal time to sell an asset that its price conforms to the Black-Schole model but its drift is a discrete random variable taking one of two given values and this probability distribution behavior changes chronologically. The result of finding the optimal strategy to sell the asset is the first time asset price falling into deterministic time-dependent boundary. Moreover, the boundary is represented by an increasing and continuous monotone function satisfying a nonlinear integral equation. We also conduct to find the empirical optimization boundary and simulate the asset price process.展开更多
Assume that we want to shell an asset with unknown drift but known that the drift is a two value random variable, and the initial distribution can be estimated. As time goes by, this distribution is updated and base o...Assume that we want to shell an asset with unknown drift but known that the drift is a two value random variable, and the initial distribution can be estimated. As time goes by, this distribution is updated and base on the probability of the drift takes the small one gives us the stopping rule. Research results show that the optimal strategy to sell the asset is if the initial probability that the drift receives a small value greater than a certain threshold then liquidates the asset immediately, otherwise the asset holder will wait until the probability of the drift receives a small value passing a certain threshold, it is the optimal time to liquidate the asset.展开更多
This study develops the approach by Minh & Khanh [1] to the classic Barro and Sala-i-Martin method [2], [3] named “expanded Barro regression method”, and applies this approach in analyzing the convergence of pro...This study develops the approach by Minh & Khanh [1] to the classic Barro and Sala-i-Martin method [2], [3] named “expanded Barro regression method”, and applies this approach in analyzing the convergence of provincial per capita GDP in Vietnam over the period of 1991-2007. Different aspects of provincial convergence are considered in this paper. The estimated result on conver-gence from our model is compared to other models.展开更多
Misallocation means that the source is not distributed efficiently. This leads to an important question of how the relationship between misallocation and efficiency is (see [1]). The purpose of this study is to addres...Misallocation means that the source is not distributed efficiently. This leads to an important question of how the relationship between misallocation and efficiency is (see [1]). The purpose of this study is to address the empirical relationship between misallocation and efficiency in the electric and computer industry in Vietnam during the 2005-2015 periods. To do this, we built a model that allowed us to evaluate the impact of misallocation and other factors on efficiency. The slack-based measured efficiency (SBM) model (Tone [2]), and the super-efficient model (Tone [3]) are used to estimate the firms’ efficiency. The approach of Hsieh and Klenow [4] is used to measure misallocation in the study area. Estimated results of the model about the relationship between misallocation and efficiency show that the variable representing the misallocation has a negative sign and statistical significance in all models. In other words, the misallocation negatively affects efficiency. The bigger the misallocation, the lower the efficiency.展开更多
Convergence problem of an economic variable represents an underlying forecast of neoclassical economic growth model. This paper aims to analyze the convergence of provincial per capita GDP stability in Vietnam over th...Convergence problem of an economic variable represents an underlying forecast of neoclassical economic growth model. This paper aims to analyze the convergence of provincial per capita GDP stability in Vietnam over the period of 1991-2007. This can be done by two approaches including bias data-based regression method for testing convergence and Markov chain model for describing features of long-term tendency of per capita income in Vietnam growth in provinces. The regression method results in the signs of convergence. To apply Markov process, we divide total pattern into 5 per capita income classes. Result estimated from the Markov chain model shows the poor convergence.展开更多
文摘This study employs a chance-constrained data envelopment analysis (CDEA) approach with two models (model A and model B) to decompose provincial productivity growth in Vietnamese agriculture from 1995 to 2007 into technological progress and efficiency change. The differences between the chance - constrained programming model A and model B are assumptions imposed on the covariance matrix. The decomposition allows us to identify the contributions of technical change and the improvement in technical efficiency to productivity growth in Vietnamese production. Sixty-one provinces in Vietnam are classified into Mekong - technology and other -technology categories. We conduct a Mann-Whitney test to verify whether the two samples, the Mekong technology province sample and the other technology sample, are drawn from the same productivity change populations. The result of the Mann-Whitney test indicates that the differences between the Mekong technology category and the other technology category from two models are more significant. Two important questions are whether some provinces in the samples could maintain their relative efficiency rank positions in comparison with the others over the study period and how to further examine the agreements between the two models. The Kruskal - Wallis test statistic shows that technical efficiency from both models for some provinces are higher than those of them in the study period. The Malmquist results show that production frontier has contracted by around 1.3 percent and 0.31 percent from chance-constrained model A and model B, respectively, a year on average over the sample period. To examine the agreements or disagreements in the total factor productivity indexes we compute the correlation between Malmquist indexes, which is positive and not very high. Thus there is a little discrepancy between the two Malmquist indexes, estimated from the chance - constrained models A and B.
文摘This study applies a stochastic frontier production approach to decompose the sources of total productivity (TFP) growth into technical progress and changes in technical efficiency of 8057 firms in Vietnamese manufacturing industries during 2003-2007. Using both total manufacturing industry and sub-manufacturing industrial regressions, the analysis focuses on the trend of technological progress (TP) and technical efficiency change (TEC), and the role of productivity change in economic growth. According to the estimated results, the annual technical progress for the manufacturing industry and sub-manufacturing industries are calculated directly from the estimated parameters of the translog stochastic frontier production function by taking a partial derivative of output with respect to time t. The average technical changes in manufacturing industry and sub-manufacturing industries are positive, with an average technical change about 5.2%, 5.8%, 5.4%, 11.8%, 4.6%, 4.1%, 7.3%, 4.8%, 4.8% and 4.8% for total sample, food products & beverages, textile & wearing apparel, footwear, paper & products, industrial chemicals, rubber & plastic products, non- metallic mineral, basic & fabricated metal and other sub-industries, respectively. Total TFP in the manufacturing sector has grown at the annual rate of 0.052, although the rate of growth decreased continuously during the sample period. For the sub-industry estimates during the sample period, TFP grew fastest in the footwear sub-industry, with annual average growth rate of 11.8%, followed by the rubber & plastic products with a rate of 7.3%, and the food products & beverages with a rate of 5.8% per annum.
文摘This paper proposes a new approach for ranking efficiency units in data envelopment analysis as a modification of the super-efficiency models developed by Tone [1]. The new approach based on slacks-based measure of efficiency (SBM) for dealing with objective function used to classify all of the decision-making units allows the ranking of all inefficient DMUs and overcomes the disadvantages of infeasibility. This method also is applied to rank super-efficient scores for the sample of 145 agricultural bank branches in Viet Nam during 2007-2010. We then compare the estimated results from the new SCI model and the exsisting SBM model by using some statistical tests.
文摘The objective of this research is to examine impacts of exchange rate volatility and FDI on efficiency of the Vietnamese agricultural sector at the provincial level for the period 1998-2011. Due to the characteristic of high uncertainty in agricultural production, the chance-constrained programming model would be used to estimate efficiency of the agricultural production sector. In order to study impacts of exchange rate volatility and FDI, we employ the two-stage model. In the first stage, we use the chance-constrained programming model to measure technical efficiency and ARIMA model to quantify exchange rate volatility. In the second stage, we use the fixed effect model to evaluate impacts of exchange rate volatility and FDI on efficiency of agricultural production in poor and rich provinces. The estimated results show that fluctuation in exchange rate volatility would reduce efficiency in agricultural production but FDI has an insignificant impact on the efficient production in Vietnam agricultural sector.
文摘In this paper we consider the problem of determining the optimal time to buy an asset in a position of an uptrend or downtrend in the financial market and currency market as well as other markets. Asset price is modeled as a geometric Brownian motion with drift being a two-state Markov chain. Based on observations of asset prices, investors want to detect the change points of price trends as accurately as possible, so that they can make the decision to buy. Using filtering techniques and stochastic analysis, we will develop the optimal boundary at which investors implement their decisions when the posterior probability process reaches a certain threshold.
文摘Although cryopreservation of embryos has been used in most terrestrial animals, the application of this technique has not been succeeded for aquatic animals. In this study, the authors investigate the effect of different combinations of sucrose （SUC, C12H22OH） and cryoprotectants （CPAs） on the survival of the catfish embryos （Pangasidae hypophthalmus） at low temperatures （4, 0 and -20 ℃） for short-term storage. For this aim, embryos with somites and optic cups were exposed to different combinations of sucrose with methanol （SUC ＋ MeOH）, 1.2-propylene glycol （SUC ＋ PROH） and ethylene glycol （SUC ＋ EG） at four concentrations ratios： （1） 0.5 M SUC ＋ 0.5 M CPA; （2） 1 M SUC ＋ 0.5 M CPA; （3） 0.5 M SUC ＋ 1 M CPA; （4） 1 M SUC ＋ 1 M CPA for 40 min at 4, 0 and -20 ℃. Embryos kept in water at room temperature （RT）, 4, 0 and -20℃ were used as controls. The survival rate was expressed as a percentage of hatched embryos per total embryos treated. The results showed that the hatching rate declined significantly when embryos were stored in water at 0 ℃ and -20℃. For embryos at 0 ℃ storage, the highest survival rate （87.78%） was obtained with 1 M SUC ＋ 1 M MeOH combination while at -20 ℃, only embryos in the combined treatments of 0.5 M SUC ＋ 1 MEG and 0.5 M SUC ＋ 1 M PROH reached the hatching stage （40% and 83.33%, respectively）. In conclusion, the results showed that the catfish embryos are sensitive to sub-zero temperatures and the combined treatment of 0.5 M sucrose and 1 M propylene glycol can be used to protect catfish embryos from damages caused by low temperature （0 ℃ and -20 ℃）.
文摘In this paper, we present an application of Genetic Programming (GP) to Vietnamese CPI in?ation one-step prediction problem. This is a new approach in building a good forecasting model, and then applying inflation forecasts in Vietnam in current stage. The study introduces the within-sample and the out-of-samples one-step-ahead forecast errors which have positive correlation and approximate to a linear function with positive slope in prediction models by GP. We also build Vector Autoregression (VAR) model to forecast CPI in quaterly data and compare with the models created by GP. The experimental results show that the Genetic Programming can produce the prediction models having better accuracy than Vector Autoregression models. We have no relavant variables (m2, ex) of monthly data in the VAR model, so no prediction results exist to compare with models created by GP and we just forecast CPI basing on models of GP with previous data of CPI.
文摘This paper considered an autoregressive time series where the slope contains random components with non-negative values. The authors determine the stationary condition of the series to estimate its parameters by the quasi-maximum likelihood method. The authors also simulates and estimates the coefficients of the simulation chain. In this paper, we consider modeling and forecasting gold chain on the free market in Hanoi, Vietnam.
文摘To solve the selling problem which is resembled to the buying problem in [1], in this paper we solve the problem of determining the optimal time to sell a property in a location the drift of the asset drops from a high value to a smaller one at some random change-point. This change-point is not directly observable for the investor, but it is partially observable in the sense that it coincides with one of the jump times of some exogenous Poisson process representing external shocks, and these jump times are assumed to be observable. The asset price is modeled as a geometric Brownian motion with a drift that initially exceeds the discount rate, but with the opposite relation after an unobservable and exponentially distributed time and thus, we model the drift as a two-state Markov chain. Using filtering and martingale techniques, stochastic analysis transform measurement, we reduce the problem to a one-dimensional optimal stopping problem. We also establish the optimal boundary at which the investor should liquidate the asset when the price process hit the boundary at first time.
文摘In this paper, we consider the problem to determine the optimal time to sell an asset that its price conforms to the Black-Schole model but its drift is a discrete random variable taking one of two given values and this probability distribution behavior changes chronologically. The result of finding the optimal strategy to sell the asset is the first time asset price falling into deterministic time-dependent boundary. Moreover, the boundary is represented by an increasing and continuous monotone function satisfying a nonlinear integral equation. We also conduct to find the empirical optimization boundary and simulate the asset price process.
文摘Assume that we want to shell an asset with unknown drift but known that the drift is a two value random variable, and the initial distribution can be estimated. As time goes by, this distribution is updated and base on the probability of the drift takes the small one gives us the stopping rule. Research results show that the optimal strategy to sell the asset is if the initial probability that the drift receives a small value greater than a certain threshold then liquidates the asset immediately, otherwise the asset holder will wait until the probability of the drift receives a small value passing a certain threshold, it is the optimal time to liquidate the asset.
文摘This study develops the approach by Minh & Khanh [1] to the classic Barro and Sala-i-Martin method [2], [3] named “expanded Barro regression method”, and applies this approach in analyzing the convergence of provincial per capita GDP in Vietnam over the period of 1991-2007. Different aspects of provincial convergence are considered in this paper. The estimated result on conver-gence from our model is compared to other models.
文摘Misallocation means that the source is not distributed efficiently. This leads to an important question of how the relationship between misallocation and efficiency is (see [1]). The purpose of this study is to address the empirical relationship between misallocation and efficiency in the electric and computer industry in Vietnam during the 2005-2015 periods. To do this, we built a model that allowed us to evaluate the impact of misallocation and other factors on efficiency. The slack-based measured efficiency (SBM) model (Tone [2]), and the super-efficient model (Tone [3]) are used to estimate the firms’ efficiency. The approach of Hsieh and Klenow [4] is used to measure misallocation in the study area. Estimated results of the model about the relationship between misallocation and efficiency show that the variable representing the misallocation has a negative sign and statistical significance in all models. In other words, the misallocation negatively affects efficiency. The bigger the misallocation, the lower the efficiency.
文摘Convergence problem of an economic variable represents an underlying forecast of neoclassical economic growth model. This paper aims to analyze the convergence of provincial per capita GDP stability in Vietnam over the period of 1991-2007. This can be done by two approaches including bias data-based regression method for testing convergence and Markov chain model for describing features of long-term tendency of per capita income in Vietnam growth in provinces. The regression method results in the signs of convergence. To apply Markov process, we divide total pattern into 5 per capita income classes. Result estimated from the Markov chain model shows the poor convergence.
