随着智能燃气网概念的普及和燃气智能表的发展,燃气负荷数据量呈指数级增长,燃气负荷预测面临新的挑战,传统的基于离线批量学习的数据预测方法已无法满足大数据量的实时数据预测需求。针对燃气负荷数据增量到达的预测场景,提出了一种增...随着智能燃气网概念的普及和燃气智能表的发展,燃气负荷数据量呈指数级增长,燃气负荷预测面临新的挑战,传统的基于离线批量学习的数据预测方法已无法满足大数据量的实时数据预测需求。针对燃气负荷数据增量到达的预测场景,提出了一种增量式的随机森林回归(Incremental Random Forest Regression,IRFR)算法。该算法将一定量的样本存储在叶节点,通过衡量样本集变异系数来控制叶节点分裂;针对大数据量的情况,设计了样本丢弃策略来控制内存空间。在对上海市燃气负荷数据进行特征选择、提取并建模后,将IRFR算法应用于燃气负荷预测。实验结果表明,IRFR算法相比于传统的随机森林算法具有相当的准确率,同时所需训练时间较短,更适用于大数据量的增量学习场景。展开更多
Based on daily precipitation data from 109 stations in the Yangtze River Basin(YRB)over the past 36 years(1980-2015),the Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF)is employed to analyze changes in autumn precipitation.We used...Based on daily precipitation data from 109 stations in the Yangtze River Basin(YRB)over the past 36 years(1980-2015),the Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF)is employed to analyze changes in autumn precipitation.We used the monthly mean re-analysis datasets of atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature(SST)to investigate the possible causes of the two leading modes,based on which the predictive equations were constructed and tested.The results of the EOF analysis show that the variance contribution of the first mode is 31.07%,and the spatial distribution shows a uniform variation over the whole region.The variance contribution of the second mode is 15.02%,and the spatial distribution displays a north-south dipole pattern in the YRB.The leading mode shows a dominant interannual variation,which is mainly due to the West Pacific subtropical high and anticyclones over the Philippine islands.The SST field corresponds to the positive phase of the eastern Pacific El Niño and the tropical Indian Ocean dipole.The second mode may be related to the Indian Ocean-East Asian teleconnection and early withdrawal of the summer monsoon.The SST field corresponds to a weaker central Pacific El Niño.Through a stepwise regression analysis,SST anomalies in some areas during summer show a good predictive effect on the autumn precipitation mode in the YRB region.展开更多
In the present scenario,modular multilevel converters(MMCs)are considered to be one of the most promising and effective topologies in the family of high-power converters because of their modular design and good scalab...In the present scenario,modular multilevel converters(MMCs)are considered to be one of the most promising and effective topologies in the family of high-power converters because of their modular design and good scalability;MMCs are extensively used in high-voltage and high-power applications.Based on their unique advantages,MMCs have attracted increasing attention from academic circles over the past years.Several studies have focused on different aspects of MMCs,including submodule topologies,modeling schemes,modulation strategies,control schemes for voltage balancing and circulating currents,fault diagnoses,and fault-tolerant control strategies.To summarize the current research status of MMCs,all the aforementioned research issues with representative research approaches,results and characteristics are systematically overviewed.In the final section,the current research status of MMCs and their future trends are emphasized.展开更多
The modular multilevel converter(MMC)has been a highly promising topology in the high-voltage direct-current(HVDC)transmission area,where each arm of the MMC may consist of hundreds of series-connected submodules and ...The modular multilevel converter(MMC)has been a highly promising topology in the high-voltage direct-current(HVDC)transmission area,where each arm of the MMC may consist of hundreds of series-connected submodules and an inductor.Due to its parameter inaccuracy,component aging,and so on,the component parameter in different arms of the MMC may be different,which may cause circulating current in the MMC-HVDC transmission system,and result in current deterioration,power losses,and electromagnetic interference,etc.In this paper,the circulating current suppressing(CCS)in the MMC-HVDC system,due to asymmetric arm impedance,is analyzed.Based on the mathematical analysis,a method of using an auxiliary circuit is proposed for the MMC to realize the CCS and improve the performance of the MMC-HVDC system.Simulation studies are conducted with PSCAD/EMTDC in the HVDC system,which confirms the feasibility of the proposed method.展开更多
文摘随着智能燃气网概念的普及和燃气智能表的发展,燃气负荷数据量呈指数级增长,燃气负荷预测面临新的挑战,传统的基于离线批量学习的数据预测方法已无法满足大数据量的实时数据预测需求。针对燃气负荷数据增量到达的预测场景,提出了一种增量式的随机森林回归(Incremental Random Forest Regression,IRFR)算法。该算法将一定量的样本存储在叶节点,通过衡量样本集变异系数来控制叶节点分裂;针对大数据量的情况,设计了样本丢弃策略来控制内存空间。在对上海市燃气负荷数据进行特征选择、提取并建模后,将IRFR算法应用于燃气负荷预测。实验结果表明,IRFR算法相比于传统的随机森林算法具有相当的准确率,同时所需训练时间较短,更适用于大数据量的增量学习场景。
基金This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(Nos.41975061 and 41605037).
文摘Based on daily precipitation data from 109 stations in the Yangtze River Basin(YRB)over the past 36 years(1980-2015),the Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF)is employed to analyze changes in autumn precipitation.We used the monthly mean re-analysis datasets of atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature(SST)to investigate the possible causes of the two leading modes,based on which the predictive equations were constructed and tested.The results of the EOF analysis show that the variance contribution of the first mode is 31.07%,and the spatial distribution shows a uniform variation over the whole region.The variance contribution of the second mode is 15.02%,and the spatial distribution displays a north-south dipole pattern in the YRB.The leading mode shows a dominant interannual variation,which is mainly due to the West Pacific subtropical high and anticyclones over the Philippine islands.The SST field corresponds to the positive phase of the eastern Pacific El Niño and the tropical Indian Ocean dipole.The second mode may be related to the Indian Ocean-East Asian teleconnection and early withdrawal of the summer monsoon.The SST field corresponds to a weaker central Pacific El Niño.Through a stepwise regression analysis,SST anomalies in some areas during summer show a good predictive effect on the autumn precipitation mode in the YRB region.
基金Supported by the Science and Technology Program of State Grid Corporation of China(5100-201999330A-0-0-00)。
文摘In the present scenario,modular multilevel converters(MMCs)are considered to be one of the most promising and effective topologies in the family of high-power converters because of their modular design and good scalability;MMCs are extensively used in high-voltage and high-power applications.Based on their unique advantages,MMCs have attracted increasing attention from academic circles over the past years.Several studies have focused on different aspects of MMCs,including submodule topologies,modeling schemes,modulation strategies,control schemes for voltage balancing and circulating currents,fault diagnoses,and fault-tolerant control strategies.To summarize the current research status of MMCs,all the aforementioned research issues with representative research approaches,results and characteristics are systematically overviewed.In the final section,the current research status of MMCs and their future trends are emphasized.
基金This work was supported by the Science and Technology Program of the State Grid Corporation of China(Grant No.5100-201999330A-0-0-00).
文摘The modular multilevel converter(MMC)has been a highly promising topology in the high-voltage direct-current(HVDC)transmission area,where each arm of the MMC may consist of hundreds of series-connected submodules and an inductor.Due to its parameter inaccuracy,component aging,and so on,the component parameter in different arms of the MMC may be different,which may cause circulating current in the MMC-HVDC transmission system,and result in current deterioration,power losses,and electromagnetic interference,etc.In this paper,the circulating current suppressing(CCS)in the MMC-HVDC system,due to asymmetric arm impedance,is analyzed.Based on the mathematical analysis,a method of using an auxiliary circuit is proposed for the MMC to realize the CCS and improve the performance of the MMC-HVDC system.Simulation studies are conducted with PSCAD/EMTDC in the HVDC system,which confirms the feasibility of the proposed method.
