Since China announced its goal of becoming carbon-neutral by 2060, carbon neutrality has become a major target in the development of China's urban agglomerations. This study applied the Future Land Use Simulation(...Since China announced its goal of becoming carbon-neutral by 2060, carbon neutrality has become a major target in the development of China's urban agglomerations. This study applied the Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS) model to predict the land use pattern of the ecological space of the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration, in 2060 under ecological priority, agricultural priority and urbanized priority scenarios. The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(In VEST) model was employed to analyse the spatial changes in ecological space carbon storage in each scenario from 2020 to 2060. Then, this study used a Geographically Weighted Regression(GWR) model to determine the main driving factors that influence the changes in land carbon sinking capacity. The results of the study can be summarised as follows: firstly, the agricultural and ecological priority scenarios will achieve balanced urban expansion and environmental protection of resources in an ecological space. The urbanized priority scenario will reduce the carbon sinking capacity. Among the simulation scenarios for 2060, carbon storage in the urbanized priority scenario will decrease by 112.26 × 10^(6) t compared with that for 2020 and the average carbon density will decrease by 0.96 kg/m^(2) compared with that for 2020. Carbon storage in the agricultural priority scenario will increase by 84.11 × 10^(6) t, and the average carbon density will decrease by 0.72 kg/m^(2). Carbon storage in the ecological priority scenario will increase by 3.03 × 10^(6) t, and the average carbon density will increase by 0.03 kg/m^(2). Under the premise that the population of the town will increases continuously, the ecological priority development approach may be a wise choice.Secondly, slope, distance to river and elevation are the most important factors that influence the carbon sink pattern of the ecological space in the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration, followed by GDP, population density, slope direction and distance to traffic infrastructure.At the same time, urban space expansion is the main cause of the changes of this natural factors. Thirdly, the decreasing trend of ecological space is difficult to reverse, so reasonable land use policy to curb the spatial expansion of cities need to be made.展开更多
人类活动导致土地利用与覆被变化(land use and cover change,LUCC)从而影响陆地生态系统碳储能力。然而LUCC受政策的限制,从而影响碳储量的变化。本研究基于2000、2010、2020年土地利用数据,运用PLUS-InVEST模型对广西国土空间2020—2...人类活动导致土地利用与覆被变化(land use and cover change,LUCC)从而影响陆地生态系统碳储能力。然而LUCC受政策的限制,从而影响碳储量的变化。本研究基于2000、2010、2020年土地利用数据,运用PLUS-InVEST模型对广西国土空间2020—2030年未来发展的3类情景的碳储情况进行预测,并通过标准椭圆差法、空间等级格局划分法、空间自相关模型分析碳储量空间分布特征,总结分区演变规律,基于此提出“分区分级”管控和要素优化对策。结果表明:①2030年3种情景下,广西国土空间碳储量仅在基于生态可持续的发展情景稳定提升,其他2类情景都大幅下降。②2020、2030年3类情景碳储量空间分布特征具有相似性,格局呈高碳储围绕式多核联动、中碳储片状镶嵌于中部、低碳储点状分布;变化趋势呈东北—西南朝向;碳储量高值区聚集于广西北部与西部区域,低值区聚集于中部及南部沿海。③2020、2030年碳储分区变化分析中,基于生态可持续的发展情景碳储核心区保持完整碳密度提升,而基于高强度的发展情景碳储变化分区形态最为剧烈,碳密度下降,基于中等强度的发展情景变化则位于另外两者中部。因此,依据碳储量空间分布特征进行分级分区管控和提出多情景要素优化对策,使碳储空间分析与国土空间规划相衔接,有助于广西碳储资源的精准保护以及为土地管理决策提供新思路,助力广西“碳中和”的实现。展开更多
As the last glimmer of the sunset fades into darkness,the yellow glow of ground lights warms the winding asphalt road of the Erhai Eco-corridor,flanked by crescent-shaped eco-lamps dotting the grass.Sounds of insects ...As the last glimmer of the sunset fades into darkness,the yellow glow of ground lights warms the winding asphalt road of the Erhai Eco-corridor,flanked by crescent-shaped eco-lamps dotting the grass.Sounds of insects and frogs rise from all directions while humans stroll in pairs and groups,rendering a beautiful composition of man and nature in harmony.展开更多
The beautiful Heihui River,a tributary of the Lancang River,runs through the lofty mountains of Qinghua Township in Weishan Yi and Hui Autonomous County in Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture,Yunnan Province.The Qinghua Gr...The beautiful Heihui River,a tributary of the Lancang River,runs through the lofty mountains of Qinghua Township in Weishan Yi and Hui Autonomous County in Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture,Yunnan Province.The Qinghua Green Peacock Nature Reserve in Weishan on the banks of the Heihui River is the only provincial nature reserve for green peacocks in China.Twenty to thirty years ago,the place was home to flocks of green peacocks,but none of their feathers have been found since 2006.Since the Administration of Qinghua Green Peacock Nature Reserve(Provinciallevel)of Weishan(hereinafter“the Administration”)was established,efforts towards green peacock protection have intensified,and the natural environment suitable for green peacocks has been restored,making it possible for green peacocks to come back.展开更多
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 52268008, 51768001)。
文摘Since China announced its goal of becoming carbon-neutral by 2060, carbon neutrality has become a major target in the development of China's urban agglomerations. This study applied the Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS) model to predict the land use pattern of the ecological space of the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration, in 2060 under ecological priority, agricultural priority and urbanized priority scenarios. The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(In VEST) model was employed to analyse the spatial changes in ecological space carbon storage in each scenario from 2020 to 2060. Then, this study used a Geographically Weighted Regression(GWR) model to determine the main driving factors that influence the changes in land carbon sinking capacity. The results of the study can be summarised as follows: firstly, the agricultural and ecological priority scenarios will achieve balanced urban expansion and environmental protection of resources in an ecological space. The urbanized priority scenario will reduce the carbon sinking capacity. Among the simulation scenarios for 2060, carbon storage in the urbanized priority scenario will decrease by 112.26 × 10^(6) t compared with that for 2020 and the average carbon density will decrease by 0.96 kg/m^(2) compared with that for 2020. Carbon storage in the agricultural priority scenario will increase by 84.11 × 10^(6) t, and the average carbon density will decrease by 0.72 kg/m^(2). Carbon storage in the ecological priority scenario will increase by 3.03 × 10^(6) t, and the average carbon density will increase by 0.03 kg/m^(2). Under the premise that the population of the town will increases continuously, the ecological priority development approach may be a wise choice.Secondly, slope, distance to river and elevation are the most important factors that influence the carbon sink pattern of the ecological space in the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration, followed by GDP, population density, slope direction and distance to traffic infrastructure.At the same time, urban space expansion is the main cause of the changes of this natural factors. Thirdly, the decreasing trend of ecological space is difficult to reverse, so reasonable land use policy to curb the spatial expansion of cities need to be made.
文摘人类活动导致土地利用与覆被变化(land use and cover change,LUCC)从而影响陆地生态系统碳储能力。然而LUCC受政策的限制,从而影响碳储量的变化。本研究基于2000、2010、2020年土地利用数据,运用PLUS-InVEST模型对广西国土空间2020—2030年未来发展的3类情景的碳储情况进行预测,并通过标准椭圆差法、空间等级格局划分法、空间自相关模型分析碳储量空间分布特征,总结分区演变规律,基于此提出“分区分级”管控和要素优化对策。结果表明:①2030年3种情景下,广西国土空间碳储量仅在基于生态可持续的发展情景稳定提升,其他2类情景都大幅下降。②2020、2030年3类情景碳储量空间分布特征具有相似性,格局呈高碳储围绕式多核联动、中碳储片状镶嵌于中部、低碳储点状分布;变化趋势呈东北—西南朝向;碳储量高值区聚集于广西北部与西部区域,低值区聚集于中部及南部沿海。③2020、2030年碳储分区变化分析中,基于生态可持续的发展情景碳储核心区保持完整碳密度提升,而基于高强度的发展情景碳储变化分区形态最为剧烈,碳密度下降,基于中等强度的发展情景变化则位于另外两者中部。因此,依据碳储量空间分布特征进行分级分区管控和提出多情景要素优化对策,使碳储空间分析与国土空间规划相衔接,有助于广西碳储资源的精准保护以及为土地管理决策提供新思路,助力广西“碳中和”的实现。
文摘As the last glimmer of the sunset fades into darkness,the yellow glow of ground lights warms the winding asphalt road of the Erhai Eco-corridor,flanked by crescent-shaped eco-lamps dotting the grass.Sounds of insects and frogs rise from all directions while humans stroll in pairs and groups,rendering a beautiful composition of man and nature in harmony.
文摘The beautiful Heihui River,a tributary of the Lancang River,runs through the lofty mountains of Qinghua Township in Weishan Yi and Hui Autonomous County in Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture,Yunnan Province.The Qinghua Green Peacock Nature Reserve in Weishan on the banks of the Heihui River is the only provincial nature reserve for green peacocks in China.Twenty to thirty years ago,the place was home to flocks of green peacocks,but none of their feathers have been found since 2006.Since the Administration of Qinghua Green Peacock Nature Reserve(Provinciallevel)of Weishan(hereinafter“the Administration”)was established,efforts towards green peacock protection have intensified,and the natural environment suitable for green peacocks has been restored,making it possible for green peacocks to come back.
