A previously developed hybrid coupled model(HCM)is composed of an intermediate tropical Pacific Ocean model and a global atmospheric general circulation model(AGCM),denoted as HCMAGCM.In this study,different El Ni...A previously developed hybrid coupled model(HCM)is composed of an intermediate tropical Pacific Ocean model and a global atmospheric general circulation model(AGCM),denoted as HCMAGCM.In this study,different El Niño flavors,namely the Eastern-Pacific(EP)and Central-Pacific(CP)types,and the associated global atmospheric teleconnections are examined in a 1000-yr control simulation of the HCMAGCM.The HCMAGCM indicates profoundly different characteristics among EP and CP El Niño events in terms of related oceanic and atmospheric variables in the tropical Pacific,including the amplitude and spatial patterns of sea surface temperature(SST),zonal wind stress,and precipitation anomalies.An SST budget analysis indicates that the thermocline feedback and zonal advective feedback dominantly contribute to the growth of EP and CP El Niño events,respectively.Corresponding to the shifts in the tropical rainfall and deep convection during EP and CP El Niño events,the model also reproduces the differences in the extratropical atmospheric responses during the boreal winter.In particular,the EP El Niño tends to be dominant in exciting a poleward wave train pattern to the Northern Hemisphere,while the CP El Niño tends to preferably produce a wave train similar to the Pacific North American(PNA)pattern.As a result,different climatic impacts exist in North American regions,with a warm-north and cold-south pattern during an EP El Niño and a warm-northeast and cold-southwest pattern during a CP El Niño,respectively.This modeling result highlights the importance of internal natural processes within the tropical Pacific as they relate to the genesis of ENSO diversity because the active ocean–atmosphere coupling is allowed only in the tropical Pacific within the framework of the HCMAGCM.展开更多
By using the multi-taper method(MTM)of singular value decomposition(SVD),this study investigates the interdecadal evolution(10-to 30-year cycle)of precipitation over eastern China from 1951 to 2015 and its relationshi...By using the multi-taper method(MTM)of singular value decomposition(SVD),this study investigates the interdecadal evolution(10-to 30-year cycle)of precipitation over eastern China from 1951 to 2015 and its relationship with the North Pacific sea surface temperature(SST).Two significant interdecadal signals,one with an 11-year cycle and the other with a 23-year cycle,are identified in both the precipitation and SST fields.Results show that the North Pacific SST forcing modulates the precipitation distribution over China through the effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)-related anomalous Aleutian low on the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and Mongolia high(MH).During the development stage of the PDO cold phase associated with the 11-year cycle,a weakened WPSH and MH increased the precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin,whereas an intensified WPSH and MH caused the enhanced rain band to move northward to North China during the decay stage.During the development stage of the PDO cold phase associated with the 23-year cycle,a weakened WPSH and MH increased the precipitation over North China,whereas an intensified WPSH and the weakened MH increased the precipitation over South China during the decay stage.The 11-year and 23-year variabilities contribute differently to the precipitation variations in the different regions of China,as seen in the 1998flooding case.The 11-year cycle mainly accounts for precipitation increases over the Yangtze River Basin,while the 23-year cycle is responsible for the precipitation increase over Northeast China.These results have important implications for understanding how the PDO modulates the precipitation distribution over China,helping to improve interdecadal climate prediction.展开更多
It has been recognized that salinity variability in the tropical Pacific is closely related to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation(IPO).Here,we use model simulations from 1900 to 2017 to illustrate obvious asymmetrie...It has been recognized that salinity variability in the tropical Pacific is closely related to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation(IPO).Here,we use model simulations from 1900 to 2017 to illustrate obvious asymmetries of salinity variability in the tropical Pacific during positive and negative IPO phases.The amplitude of salinity variability in the tropical Pacific during positive IPO phases is larger than that during negative IPO phases,with a more westward shift of a large Sea Surface Salinity(SSS)anomaly along the equator.Salinity budget analyses show that the asymmetry of salinity variability during positive and negative IPO phases is dominated by the difference in the surface forcing associated with the freshwater flux[FWF,precipitation(P)minus evaporation(E)],with a contribution of 40%–50%near the dateline on the equator.Moreover,the relationships between the salinity variability and its budget terms also show differences in their leadlag correlations during positive and negative IPO phases.These differences in salinity variability during different IPO phases produce asymmetric effects on seawater density which can reduce or enhance upper-ocean stratification.Therefore,the salinity effects may modulate the intensity of El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO),resulting in an enhanced(reduced)El Nino but a reduced(enhanced)La Ni?a during positive(negative)IPO phases by 1.6℃psu^(-1)(1.3℃psu^(-1)),respectively.It is suggested that the asymmetry of salinity variability may be related to the recent change in ENSO amplitude associated with the IPO,which can help elucidate ENSO diversity.展开更多
Despite the diverse roles of tripartite motif(Trim)-containing proteins in the regulation of autophagy,the innate immune response,and cell differentiation,their roles in skeletal diseases are largely unknown.We recent...Despite the diverse roles of tripartite motif(Trim)-containing proteins in the regulation of autophagy,the innate immune response,and cell differentiation,their roles in skeletal diseases are largely unknown.We recently demonstrated that Trim21 plays a crucial role in regulating osteoblast(OB)differentiation in osteosarcoma.However,how Trim21 contributes to skeletal degenerative disorders,including osteoporosis,remains unknown.First,human and mouse bone specimens were evaluated,and the results showed that Trim21 expression was significantly elevated in bone tissues obtained from osteoporosis patients.Next,we found that global knockout of the Trim21 gene(KO,Trim2^(1-/-))resulted in higher bone mass compared to that of the control littermates.We further demonstrated that loss of Trim21 promoted bone formation by enhancing the osteogenic differentiation of bone marrow mesenchymal stem cells(BMSCs)and elevating the activity of OBs;moreover,Trim21 depletion suppressed osteoclast(OC)formation of RAW264.7 cells.In addition,the differentiation of OCs from bone marrow-derived macrophages(BMMs)isolated from Trim21^(-/-)and Ctsk-cre;Trim21^(f/f)mice was largely compromised compared to that of the littermate control mice.Mechanistically,YAP1/β-catenin signaling was identified and demonstrated to be required for the Trim21-mediated osteogenic differentiation of BMSCs.More importantly,the loss of Trim21 prevented ovariectomy(OVX)-and lipopolysaccharide(LPS)-induced bone loss in vivo by orchestrating the coupling of OBs and OCs through YAP1 signaling.Our current study demonstrated that Trim21 is crucial for regulating OB-mediated bone formation and OC-mediated bone resorption,thereby providing a basis for exploring Trim21 as a novel dual-targeting approach for treating osteoporosis and pathological bone loss.展开更多
Based on an intermediate coupled model (ICM), a probabilistic ensemble prediction system (EPS) has been developed. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation approach is used for generating the initial ensemb...Based on an intermediate coupled model (ICM), a probabilistic ensemble prediction system (EPS) has been developed. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation approach is used for generating the initial ensemble conditions, and a linear, first-order Markov-Chain SST anomaly error model is embedded into the EPS to provide model-error perturbations. In this study, we perform ENSO retrospective forecasts over the 120 year period 1886–2005 using the EPS with 100 ensemble members and with initial conditions obtained by only assimilating historic SST anomaly observations. By examining the retrospective ensemble forecasts and available observations, the verification results show that the skill of the ensemble mean of the EPS is greater than that of a single deterministic forecast using the same ICM, with a distinct improvement of both the correlation and root mean square (RMS) error between the ensemble-mean hindcast and the deterministic scheme over the 12-month prediction period. The RMS error of the ensemble mean is almost 0.2°C smaller than that of the deterministic forecast at a lead time of 12 months. The probabilistic skill of the EPS is also high with the predicted ensemble following the SST observations well, and the areas under the relative operating characteristic (ROC) curves for three different ENSO states (warm events, cold events, and neutral events) are all above 0.55 out to 12 months lead time. However, both deterministic and probabilistic prediction skills of the EPS show an interdecadal variation. For the deterministic skill, there is high skill in the late 19th century and in the middle-late 20th century (which includes some artificial skill due to the model training period), and low skill during the period from 1906 to 1961. For probabilistic skill, for the three different ENSO states, there is still a similar interdecadal variation of ENSO probabilistic predictability during the period 1886–2005. There is high skill in the late 19th century from 1886 to 1905, and a decline to a minimum of skill around 1910–50s, beyond which skill rebounds and increases with time until the 2000s.展开更多
A four-dimensional variational(4D-Var) data assimilation method is implemented in an improved intermediate coupled model(ICM) of the tropical Pacific. A twin experiment is designed to evaluate the impact of the 4D-Var...A four-dimensional variational(4D-Var) data assimilation method is implemented in an improved intermediate coupled model(ICM) of the tropical Pacific. A twin experiment is designed to evaluate the impact of the 4D-Var data assimilation algorithm on ENSO analysis and prediction based on the ICM. The model error is assumed to arise only from the parameter uncertainty. The "observation" of the SST anomaly, which is sampled from a "truth" model simulation that takes default parameter values and has Gaussian noise added, is directly assimilated into the assimilation model with its parameters set erroneously. Results show that 4D-Var effectively reduces the error of ENSO analysis and therefore improves the prediction skill of ENSO events compared with the non-assimilation case. These results provide a promising way for the ICM to achieve better real-time ENSO prediction.展开更多
The initial errors constitute one of the main limiting factors in the ability to predict the El Nio–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) in ocean–atmosphere coupled models. The conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNO...The initial errors constitute one of the main limiting factors in the ability to predict the El Nio–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) in ocean–atmosphere coupled models. The conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP) approach was employed to study the largest initial error growth in the El Nio predictions of an intermediate coupled model(ICM). The optimal initial errors(as represented by CNOPs) in sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs) and sea level anomalies(SLAs) were obtained with seasonal variation. The CNOP-induced perturbations, which tend to evolve into the La Nia mode, were found to have the same dynamics as ENSO itself. This indicates that, if CNOP-type errors are present in the initial conditions used to make a prediction of El Nio, the El Nio event tends to be under-predicted. In particular, compared with other seasonal CNOPs, the CNOPs in winter can induce the largest error growth, which gives rise to an ENSO amplitude that is hardly ever predicted accurately. Additionally, it was found that the CNOP-induced perturbations exhibit a strong spring predictability barrier(SPB) phenomenon for ENSO prediction. These results offer a way to enhance ICM prediction skill and, particularly,weaken the SPB phenomenon by filtering the CNOP-type errors in the initial state. The characteristic distributions of the CNOPs derived from the ICM also provide useful information for targeted observations through data assimilation. Given the fact that the derived CNOPs are season-dependent, it is suggested that seasonally varying targeted observations should be implemented to accurately predict ENSO events.展开更多
Large biases exist in real-time ENSO prediction, which can be attributed to uncertainties in initial conditions and model parameters. Previously, a 4 D variational(4 D-Var) data assimilation system was developed for a...Large biases exist in real-time ENSO prediction, which can be attributed to uncertainties in initial conditions and model parameters. Previously, a 4 D variational(4 D-Var) data assimilation system was developed for an intermediate coupled model(ICM) and used to improve ENSO modeling through optimized initial conditions. In this paper, this system is further applied to optimize model parameters. In the ICM used, one important process for ENSO is related to the anomalous temperature of subsurface water entrained into the mixed layer(T_e), which is empirically and explicitly related to sea level(SL) variation.The strength of the thermocline effect on SST(referred to simply as "the thermocline effect") is represented by an introduced parameter, αT_e. A numerical procedure is developed to optimize this model parameter through the 4 D-Var assimilation of SST data in a twin experiment context with an idealized setting. Experiments having their initial condition optimized only,and having their initial condition plus this additional model parameter optimized, are compared. It is shown that ENSO evolution can be more effectively recovered by including the additional optimization of this parameter in ENSO modeling.The demonstrated feasibility of optimizing model parameters and initial conditions together through the 4 D-Var method provides a modeling platform for ENSO studies. Further applications of the 4 D-Var data assimilation system implemented in the ICM are also discussed.展开更多
Previous studies indicate that ENSO predictions are particularly sensitive to the initial conditions in some key areas(socalled "sensitive areas"). And yet, few studies have quantified improvements in predic...Previous studies indicate that ENSO predictions are particularly sensitive to the initial conditions in some key areas(socalled "sensitive areas"). And yet, few studies have quantified improvements in prediction skill in the context of an optimal observing system. In this study, the impact on prediction skill is explored using an intermediate coupled model in which errors in initial conditions formed to make ENSO predictions are removed in certain areas. Based on ideal observing system simulation experiments, the importance of various observational networks on improvement of El Ni n?o prediction skill is examined. The results indicate that the initial states in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are important to improve El Ni n?o prediction skill effectively. When removing the initial condition errors in the central equatorial Pacific, ENSO prediction errors can be reduced by 25%. Furthermore, combinations of various subregions are considered to demonstrate the efficiency on ENSO prediction skill. Particularly, seasonally varying observational networks are suggested to improve the prediction skill more effectively. For example, in addition to observing in the central equatorial Pacific and its north throughout the year,increasing observations in the eastern equatorial Pacific during April to October is crucially important, which can improve the prediction accuracy by 62%. These results also demonstrate the effectiveness of the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation approach on detecting sensitive areas for target observations.展开更多
The flow curves of an ultra-high nitrogen austenitic steel containing niobium(Nb) and vanadium(V) were obtained by hot compression deformation at temperatures ranging from 1000°C to 1200°C and strain rates r...The flow curves of an ultra-high nitrogen austenitic steel containing niobium(Nb) and vanadium(V) were obtained by hot compression deformation at temperatures ranging from 1000°C to 1200°C and strain rates ranging from 0.001 s-1 to 10 s-1. The mechanical behavior during hot deformation was discussed on the basis of flow curves and hot processing maps. The microstructures were analyzed via scanning electron microscopy and electron backscatter diffraction. The relationship between deformation conditions and grain size after dynamic recrystallization was obtained. The results show that the flow stress and peak strain both increase with decreasing temperature and increasing strain rate. The hot deformation activation energy is approximately 631 k J/mol, and a hot deformation equation is proposed.(Nb,V)N precipitates with either round, square, or irregular shapes are observed at the grain boundaries and in the matrix after deformation. According to the discussion, the hot working should be processed in the temperature range of 1050°C to 1150°C and in the strain rate range of 0.01 to 1 s-1.展开更多
As salinity stratification is necessary to form the barrier layer(BL), the quantification of its role in BL interannual variability is crucial. This study assessed salinity variability and its effect on the BL in the ...As salinity stratification is necessary to form the barrier layer(BL), the quantification of its role in BL interannual variability is crucial. This study assessed salinity variability and its effect on the BL in the equatorial Pacific using outputs from Beijing Normal University Earth System Model(BNU-ESM) simulations. A comparison between observations and the BNU-ESM simulations demonstrated that BNU-ESM has good capability in reproducing most of the interannual features observed in nature. Despite some discrepancies in both magnitude and location of the interannual variability centers, the displacements of sea surface salinity(SSS), barrier layer thickness(BLT), and SST simulated by BNU-ESM in the equatorial Pacific are realistic. During El Ni n?o, for example, the modeled interannual anomalies of BLT, mixed layer depth, and isothermal layer depth, exhibit good correspondence with observations, including the development and decay of El Ni n?o in the central Pacific, whereas the intensity of the interannual variabilities is weaker relative to observations. Due to the bias in salinity simulations, the SSS front extends farther west along the equator, whereas BLT variability is weaker in the central Pacific than in observations. Further, the BNU-ESM simulations were examined to assess the relative effects of salinity and temperature variability on BLT. Consistent with previous observation-based analyses, the interannual salinity variability can make a significant contribution to BLT relative to temperature in the western-central equatorial Pacific.展开更多
Salinity variability and its causes in the tropical Pacific are analyzed using observations, reanalysis products and model simulations. The mixed-layer salinity(MLS) budget analyses from observations and reanalysis pr...Salinity variability and its causes in the tropical Pacific are analyzed using observations, reanalysis products and model simulations. The mixed-layer salinity(MLS) budget analyses from observations and reanalysis products indicate that its interannual evolution is closely related to ENSO and is predominantly governed by surface forcing and surface advection in the western-central equatorial Pacific. It is found that the observed MLS tendency leads Nin?o3.4 by about 12 months due to the effect of negative freshwater flux(evaporation minus precipitation). These observation-based analyses are used to evaluate the corresponding simulation using GFDL-ESM2 M. It is evident that the model can simulate the spatiotemporal variations of MLS with some discrepancies compared to observations. In the warm pool of the equatorial Pacific the MLS tendency in the model is sensitive to ocean dynamics, however model biases cause the tendency to be underestimated. In particular, the freshwater flux is overestimated while the ocean surface zonal current and vertical velocity at the base of the mixed layer are underestimated. Due to model biases in representing the related physics, the effects of surface forcing on the simulated MLS budget are overestimated and those of subsurface and surface advection are relatively weak. Due to weaker surface advection and subsurface forcing than observed, the simulated compensations for surface forcing are suppressed, and the simulated MLS tendency that leads Nin?o3.4 by 8–10 months, which is shorter than the observed lead time. These results are useful for the interpretation of observational analyses and other model simulations in the tropical Pacific.展开更多
After its maturity,El Niño usually decays rapidly in the following summer and evolves into a La Niña pattern.However,this was not the case for the 2018/19 El Niño event.Based on multiple reanalysis data...After its maturity,El Niño usually decays rapidly in the following summer and evolves into a La Niña pattern.However,this was not the case for the 2018/19 El Niño event.Based on multiple reanalysis data sets,the space-time evolution and triggering mechanism for the unusual second-year warming in late 2019,after the 2018/19 El Niño event,are investigated in the tropical Pacific.After a short decaying period associated with the 2018/19 El Niño condition,positive sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs)re-intensified in the eastern equatorial Pacific in late 2019.Compared with the composite pattern of El Niño in the following year,two key differences are evident in the evolution of SSTAs in 2019.First,is the persistence of the surface warming over the central equatorial Pacific in May,and second,is the re-intensification of the positive SSTAs over the eastern equatorial Pacific in September.Observational results suggest that the re-intensification of anomalous westerly winds over the western and central Pacific,induced remotely by an extreme Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD)event,acted as a triggering mechanism for the second-year warming in late 2019.That is,the IOD-related cold SSTAs in the eastern Indian Ocean established and sustained anomalous surface westerly winds over the western equatorial Pacific,which induced downwelling Kelvin waves propagating eastward along the equator.At the same time,the subsurface ocean provided plenty of warm water in the western and central equatorial Pacific.Mixed-layer heat budget analyses further confirm that positive zonal advection,induced by the anomalous westerly winds,and thermocline feedback played important roles in leading to the second-year warming in late 2019.This study provides new insights into the processes responsible for the diversity of El Niño evolution,which is important for improving the physical understanding and seasonal prediction of El Niño events.展开更多
After the strong 2015/16 El Nino event,cold conditions prevailed in the tropical Pacific with the second-year cooling of the 2017/18 La Ni?a event.Many coupled models failed to predict the cold SST anomalies(SSTAs)in ...After the strong 2015/16 El Nino event,cold conditions prevailed in the tropical Pacific with the second-year cooling of the 2017/18 La Ni?a event.Many coupled models failed to predict the cold SST anomalies(SSTAs)in 2017.By using the ERA5 and GODAS(Global Ocean Data Assimilation System)products,atmospheric and oceanic factors were examined that could have been responsible for the second-year cooling,including surface wind and the subsurface thermal state.A time sequence is described to demonstrate how the cold SSTAs were produced in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific in late 2017.Since July 2017,easterly anomalies strengthened in the central Pacific;in the meantime,wind stress divergence anomalies emerged in the far eastern region,which strengthened during the following months and propagated westward,contributing to the development of the second-year cooling in 2017.At the subsurface,weak negative temperature anomalies were accompanied by upwelling in the eastern equatorial Pacific,which provided the cold water source for the sea surface.Thereafter,both the cold anomalies and upwelling were enhanced and extended westward in the centraleastern equatorial Pacific.These changes were associated with the seasonally weakened EUC(the Equatorial Undercurrent)and strengthened SEC(the South Equatorial Current),which favored more cold waters being accumulated in the central-equatorial Pacific.Then,the subsurface cold waters stretched upward with the convergence of the horizontal currents and eventually outcropped to the surface.The subsurface-induced SSTAs acted to induce local coupled air–sea interactions,which generated atmospheric–oceanic anomalies developing and evolving into the second-year cooling in the fall of 2017.展开更多
A significant strong, warm “Blob”(a large circular water body with a positive ocean temperature anomaly) appeared in the Northeast Pacific (NEP) in the boreal winter of 2013 2014, which induced many extreme climate ...A significant strong, warm “Blob”(a large circular water body with a positive ocean temperature anomaly) appeared in the Northeast Pacific (NEP) in the boreal winter of 2013 2014, which induced many extreme climate events in the US and Canada. In this study, analyses of the temperature and salinity anomaly variations from the Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanography (Argo) data provided insights into the formation of the warm “Blob” over the NEP. The early negative salinity anomaly dominantly contributed to the shallower mixed layer depth (MLD) in the NEP during the period of 2012 2013. Then, the shallower mixed layer trapped more heat in the upper water column and resulted in a warmer sea surface temperature (SST), which enhanced the warm “Blob”. The salinity variability contributed to approximately 60% of the shallowing MLD related to the warm “Blob”. The salinity anomaly in the warm “Blob” region resulted from a combination of both local and nonlocal effects. The freshened water at the surface played a local role in the MLD anomaly. Interestingly, the MLD anomaly was more dependent on the local subsurface salinity anomaly in the 100-150 m depth range in the NEP. The salinity anomaly in the 50-100 m depth range may be linked to the anomaly in the 100-150 m depth range by vertical advection or mixing. The salinity anomaly in the 100-150 m depth range resulted from the eastward transportation of a subducted water mass that was freshened west of the dateline, which played a nonlocal role. The results suggest that the early salinity anomaly in the NEP related to the warm “Blob” may be a precursor signal of interannual and interdecadal variabilities.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFCGrant No.42275061)+3 种基金the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDB40000000)the Laoshan Laboratory(Grant No.LSKJ202202404)the NSFC(Grant No.42030410)the Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology.
文摘A previously developed hybrid coupled model(HCM)is composed of an intermediate tropical Pacific Ocean model and a global atmospheric general circulation model(AGCM),denoted as HCMAGCM.In this study,different El Niño flavors,namely the Eastern-Pacific(EP)and Central-Pacific(CP)types,and the associated global atmospheric teleconnections are examined in a 1000-yr control simulation of the HCMAGCM.The HCMAGCM indicates profoundly different characteristics among EP and CP El Niño events in terms of related oceanic and atmospheric variables in the tropical Pacific,including the amplitude and spatial patterns of sea surface temperature(SST),zonal wind stress,and precipitation anomalies.An SST budget analysis indicates that the thermocline feedback and zonal advective feedback dominantly contribute to the growth of EP and CP El Niño events,respectively.Corresponding to the shifts in the tropical rainfall and deep convection during EP and CP El Niño events,the model also reproduces the differences in the extratropical atmospheric responses during the boreal winter.In particular,the EP El Niño tends to be dominant in exciting a poleward wave train pattern to the Northern Hemisphere,while the CP El Niño tends to preferably produce a wave train similar to the Pacific North American(PNA)pattern.As a result,different climatic impacts exist in North American regions,with a warm-north and cold-south pattern during an EP El Niño and a warm-northeast and cold-southwest pattern during a CP El Niño,respectively.This modeling result highlights the importance of internal natural processes within the tropical Pacific as they relate to the genesis of ENSO diversity because the active ocean–atmosphere coupling is allowed only in the tropical Pacific within the framework of the HCMAGCM.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42030410)Laoshan Laboratory(No.LSKJ202202403-2)+1 种基金the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDB40000000)the Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUIST。
文摘By using the multi-taper method(MTM)of singular value decomposition(SVD),this study investigates the interdecadal evolution(10-to 30-year cycle)of precipitation over eastern China from 1951 to 2015 and its relationship with the North Pacific sea surface temperature(SST).Two significant interdecadal signals,one with an 11-year cycle and the other with a 23-year cycle,are identified in both the precipitation and SST fields.Results show that the North Pacific SST forcing modulates the precipitation distribution over China through the effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)-related anomalous Aleutian low on the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and Mongolia high(MH).During the development stage of the PDO cold phase associated with the 11-year cycle,a weakened WPSH and MH increased the precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin,whereas an intensified WPSH and MH caused the enhanced rain band to move northward to North China during the decay stage.During the development stage of the PDO cold phase associated with the 23-year cycle,a weakened WPSH and MH increased the precipitation over North China,whereas an intensified WPSH and the weakened MH increased the precipitation over South China during the decay stage.The 11-year and 23-year variabilities contribute differently to the precipitation variations in the different regions of China,as seen in the 1998flooding case.The 11-year cycle mainly accounts for precipitation increases over the Yangtze River Basin,while the 23-year cycle is responsible for the precipitation increase over Northeast China.These results have important implications for understanding how the PDO modulates the precipitation distribution over China,helping to improve interdecadal climate prediction.
基金supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences [grant number XDA 19060102]supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 42030410]+2 种基金the Laoshan Laboratory [grant number LSL202202402]the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences [grant number XDB40000000]the Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUIST
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFCGrant No.42030410)+3 种基金the Laoshan Laboratory(Grant No.LSKJ202202403)the National Key Research and Development Program on Monitoring,Early Warning and Prevention of Major Natural Disaster(Grant Nos.2019YFC1510004,2020YFA0608902)supported by the NSFC(Grant No.41976026)supported by the Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUIST。
文摘It has been recognized that salinity variability in the tropical Pacific is closely related to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation(IPO).Here,we use model simulations from 1900 to 2017 to illustrate obvious asymmetries of salinity variability in the tropical Pacific during positive and negative IPO phases.The amplitude of salinity variability in the tropical Pacific during positive IPO phases is larger than that during negative IPO phases,with a more westward shift of a large Sea Surface Salinity(SSS)anomaly along the equator.Salinity budget analyses show that the asymmetry of salinity variability during positive and negative IPO phases is dominated by the difference in the surface forcing associated with the freshwater flux[FWF,precipitation(P)minus evaporation(E)],with a contribution of 40%–50%near the dateline on the equator.Moreover,the relationships between the salinity variability and its budget terms also show differences in their leadlag correlations during positive and negative IPO phases.These differences in salinity variability during different IPO phases produce asymmetric effects on seawater density which can reduce or enhance upper-ocean stratification.Therefore,the salinity effects may modulate the intensity of El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO),resulting in an enhanced(reduced)El Nino but a reduced(enhanced)La Ni?a during positive(negative)IPO phases by 1.6℃psu^(-1)(1.3℃psu^(-1)),respectively.It is suggested that the asymmetry of salinity variability may be related to the recent change in ENSO amplitude associated with the IPO,which can help elucidate ENSO diversity.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant number 42276008]the Laoshan Laboratory[grant number LSKJ202202403-2]+2 种基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant number 42030410]the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences [grant number XDB40000000]the Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUIST
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation with grants from the National Key R&D Program of China(2018YFC2002500)National Natural Science Foundation of China(81602360,82072470,82350003,92049201)+6 种基金Key Laboratory Construction Project of Guangzhou Science and Technology Bureau(202102100007)supported by the Clinical Frontier Technology Program of the First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University,China(No.JNU1AF-CFTP-2022-a01221)Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province(2021A1515012154,2019A1515011082,2017A030313665,2018A030313544,2020B1515120038)Science and Technology Projects in Guangzhou(201707010493,202102010069)Macao Foundation for Development of Science and Technology(0029/2019/A)Youth Talent Support Project of Guangzhou Association for Science&Technology(X20200301018)pilot project of clinical collaboration from National Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine and National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China and Logistics Support Department of the Central Military Commission。
文摘Despite the diverse roles of tripartite motif(Trim)-containing proteins in the regulation of autophagy,the innate immune response,and cell differentiation,their roles in skeletal diseases are largely unknown.We recently demonstrated that Trim21 plays a crucial role in regulating osteoblast(OB)differentiation in osteosarcoma.However,how Trim21 contributes to skeletal degenerative disorders,including osteoporosis,remains unknown.First,human and mouse bone specimens were evaluated,and the results showed that Trim21 expression was significantly elevated in bone tissues obtained from osteoporosis patients.Next,we found that global knockout of the Trim21 gene(KO,Trim2^(1-/-))resulted in higher bone mass compared to that of the control littermates.We further demonstrated that loss of Trim21 promoted bone formation by enhancing the osteogenic differentiation of bone marrow mesenchymal stem cells(BMSCs)and elevating the activity of OBs;moreover,Trim21 depletion suppressed osteoclast(OC)formation of RAW264.7 cells.In addition,the differentiation of OCs from bone marrow-derived macrophages(BMMs)isolated from Trim21^(-/-)and Ctsk-cre;Trim21^(f/f)mice was largely compromised compared to that of the littermate control mice.Mechanistically,YAP1/β-catenin signaling was identified and demonstrated to be required for the Trim21-mediated osteogenic differentiation of BMSCs.More importantly,the loss of Trim21 prevented ovariectomy(OVX)-and lipopolysaccharide(LPS)-induced bone loss in vivo by orchestrating the coupling of OBs and OCs through YAP1 signaling.Our current study demonstrated that Trim21 is crucial for regulating OB-mediated bone formation and OC-mediated bone resorption,thereby providing a basis for exploring Trim21 as a novel dual-targeting approach for treating osteoporosis and pathological bone loss.
基金supported by the Chinese Academy of Science (Grant No. KZCX2-YW-202)National Basic Research Program of China (2006CB403600)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40437017 and 40805033).
文摘Based on an intermediate coupled model (ICM), a probabilistic ensemble prediction system (EPS) has been developed. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation approach is used for generating the initial ensemble conditions, and a linear, first-order Markov-Chain SST anomaly error model is embedded into the EPS to provide model-error perturbations. In this study, we perform ENSO retrospective forecasts over the 120 year period 1886–2005 using the EPS with 100 ensemble members and with initial conditions obtained by only assimilating historic SST anomaly observations. By examining the retrospective ensemble forecasts and available observations, the verification results show that the skill of the ensemble mean of the EPS is greater than that of a single deterministic forecast using the same ICM, with a distinct improvement of both the correlation and root mean square (RMS) error between the ensemble-mean hindcast and the deterministic scheme over the 12-month prediction period. The RMS error of the ensemble mean is almost 0.2°C smaller than that of the deterministic forecast at a lead time of 12 months. The probabilistic skill of the EPS is also high with the predicted ensemble following the SST observations well, and the areas under the relative operating characteristic (ROC) curves for three different ENSO states (warm events, cold events, and neutral events) are all above 0.55 out to 12 months lead time. However, both deterministic and probabilistic prediction skills of the EPS show an interdecadal variation. For the deterministic skill, there is high skill in the late 19th century and in the middle-late 20th century (which includes some artificial skill due to the model training period), and low skill during the period from 1906 to 1961. For probabilistic skill, for the three different ENSO states, there is still a similar interdecadal variation of ENSO probabilistic predictability during the period 1886–2005. There is high skill in the late 19th century from 1886 to 1905, and a decline to a minimum of skill around 1910–50s, beyond which skill rebounds and increases with time until the 2000s.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41490644,41475101 and 41421005)the CAS Strategic Priority Project(the Western Pacific Ocean System+2 种基金Project Nos.XDA11010105,XDA11020306 and XDA11010301)the NSFC-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers(Grant No.U1406401)the NSFC Innovative Group Grant(Project No.41421005)
文摘A four-dimensional variational(4D-Var) data assimilation method is implemented in an improved intermediate coupled model(ICM) of the tropical Pacific. A twin experiment is designed to evaluate the impact of the 4D-Var data assimilation algorithm on ENSO analysis and prediction based on the ICM. The model error is assumed to arise only from the parameter uncertainty. The "observation" of the SST anomaly, which is sampled from a "truth" model simulation that takes default parameter values and has Gaussian noise added, is directly assimilated into the assimilation model with its parameters set erroneously. Results show that 4D-Var effectively reduces the error of ENSO analysis and therefore improves the prediction skill of ENSO events compared with the non-assimilation case. These results provide a promising way for the ICM to achieve better real-time ENSO prediction.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NFSC Grant Nos. 41690122, 41690120, 41490644, 41490640 and 41475101)+5 种基金the Ao Shan Talents Program supported by Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Grant No. 2015ASTP)a Chinese Academy of Sciences Strategic Priority Projectthe Western Pacific Ocean System (Grant Nos. XDA11010105, XDA11020306)the NSFC–Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers (Grant No. U1406401)the National Natural Science Foundation of China Innovative Group Grant (Grant No. 41421005)the Taishan Scholarship and Qingdao Innovative Program (Grant No. 2014GJJS0101)
文摘The initial errors constitute one of the main limiting factors in the ability to predict the El Nio–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) in ocean–atmosphere coupled models. The conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP) approach was employed to study the largest initial error growth in the El Nio predictions of an intermediate coupled model(ICM). The optimal initial errors(as represented by CNOPs) in sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs) and sea level anomalies(SLAs) were obtained with seasonal variation. The CNOP-induced perturbations, which tend to evolve into the La Nia mode, were found to have the same dynamics as ENSO itself. This indicates that, if CNOP-type errors are present in the initial conditions used to make a prediction of El Nio, the El Nio event tends to be under-predicted. In particular, compared with other seasonal CNOPs, the CNOPs in winter can induce the largest error growth, which gives rise to an ENSO amplitude that is hardly ever predicted accurately. Additionally, it was found that the CNOP-induced perturbations exhibit a strong spring predictability barrier(SPB) phenomenon for ENSO prediction. These results offer a way to enhance ICM prediction skill and, particularly,weaken the SPB phenomenon by filtering the CNOP-type errors in the initial state. The characteristic distributions of the CNOPs derived from the ICM also provide useful information for targeted observations through data assimilation. Given the fact that the derived CNOPs are season-dependent, it is suggested that seasonally varying targeted observations should be implemented to accurately predict ENSO events.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41705082, 41475101, 41690122(41690120))a Chinese Academy of Sciences Strategic Priority Project-the Western Pacific Ocean System (Grant Nos. XDA11010105 and XDA11020306)+1 种基金the National Programme on Global Change and Air–Sea Interaction (Grant Nos. GASI-IPOVAI06 and GASI-IPOVAI-01-01)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation, and a Qingdao Postdoctoral Application Research Project
文摘Large biases exist in real-time ENSO prediction, which can be attributed to uncertainties in initial conditions and model parameters. Previously, a 4 D variational(4 D-Var) data assimilation system was developed for an intermediate coupled model(ICM) and used to improve ENSO modeling through optimized initial conditions. In this paper, this system is further applied to optimize model parameters. In the ICM used, one important process for ENSO is related to the anomalous temperature of subsurface water entrained into the mixed layer(T_e), which is empirically and explicitly related to sea level(SL) variation.The strength of the thermocline effect on SST(referred to simply as "the thermocline effect") is represented by an introduced parameter, αT_e. A numerical procedure is developed to optimize this model parameter through the 4 D-Var assimilation of SST data in a twin experiment context with an idealized setting. Experiments having their initial condition optimized only,and having their initial condition plus this additional model parameter optimized, are compared. It is shown that ENSO evolution can be more effectively recovered by including the additional optimization of this parameter in ENSO modeling.The demonstrated feasibility of optimizing model parameters and initial conditions together through the 4 D-Var method provides a modeling platform for ENSO studies. Further applications of the 4 D-Var data assimilation system implemented in the ICM are also discussed.
基金supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA19060102)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41475101, 41690122, 41690120 and 41421005)the National Programme on Global Change and Air–Sea Interaction Interaction (Grant Nos. GASI-IPOVAI-06 and GASI-IPOVAI-01-01)
文摘Previous studies indicate that ENSO predictions are particularly sensitive to the initial conditions in some key areas(socalled "sensitive areas"). And yet, few studies have quantified improvements in prediction skill in the context of an optimal observing system. In this study, the impact on prediction skill is explored using an intermediate coupled model in which errors in initial conditions formed to make ENSO predictions are removed in certain areas. Based on ideal observing system simulation experiments, the importance of various observational networks on improvement of El Ni n?o prediction skill is examined. The results indicate that the initial states in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are important to improve El Ni n?o prediction skill effectively. When removing the initial condition errors in the central equatorial Pacific, ENSO prediction errors can be reduced by 25%. Furthermore, combinations of various subregions are considered to demonstrate the efficiency on ENSO prediction skill. Particularly, seasonally varying observational networks are suggested to improve the prediction skill more effectively. For example, in addition to observing in the central equatorial Pacific and its north throughout the year,increasing observations in the eastern equatorial Pacific during April to October is crucially important, which can improve the prediction accuracy by 62%. These results also demonstrate the effectiveness of the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation approach on detecting sensitive areas for target observations.
基金financially supported by the Natural Science Foundation–Steel and Iron Foundation of Hebei Province(No.E2013203110)the Foundation for Young Scholars in Yanshan University(No.14LGA004)
文摘The flow curves of an ultra-high nitrogen austenitic steel containing niobium(Nb) and vanadium(V) were obtained by hot compression deformation at temperatures ranging from 1000°C to 1200°C and strain rates ranging from 0.001 s-1 to 10 s-1. The mechanical behavior during hot deformation was discussed on the basis of flow curves and hot processing maps. The microstructures were analyzed via scanning electron microscopy and electron backscatter diffraction. The relationship between deformation conditions and grain size after dynamic recrystallization was obtained. The results show that the flow stress and peak strain both increase with decreasing temperature and increasing strain rate. The hot deformation activation energy is approximately 631 k J/mol, and a hot deformation equation is proposed.(Nb,V)N precipitates with either round, square, or irregular shapes are observed at the grain boundaries and in the matrix after deformation. According to the discussion, the hot working should be processed in the temperature range of 1050°C to 1150°C and in the strain rate range of 0.01 to 1 s-1.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41376039,41376019 and 41421005)the NSFC-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers(Grant No.U1406401)+1 种基金the IOCAS through the CAS Strategic Priority Project[the Western Pacific Ocean System(WPOS)]the WPOS in the "Strategic Priority Research Program" of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA11010304)
文摘As salinity stratification is necessary to form the barrier layer(BL), the quantification of its role in BL interannual variability is crucial. This study assessed salinity variability and its effect on the BL in the equatorial Pacific using outputs from Beijing Normal University Earth System Model(BNU-ESM) simulations. A comparison between observations and the BNU-ESM simulations demonstrated that BNU-ESM has good capability in reproducing most of the interannual features observed in nature. Despite some discrepancies in both magnitude and location of the interannual variability centers, the displacements of sea surface salinity(SSS), barrier layer thickness(BLT), and SST simulated by BNU-ESM in the equatorial Pacific are realistic. During El Ni n?o, for example, the modeled interannual anomalies of BLT, mixed layer depth, and isothermal layer depth, exhibit good correspondence with observations, including the development and decay of El Ni n?o in the central Pacific, whereas the intensity of the interannual variabilities is weaker relative to observations. Due to the bias in salinity simulations, the SSS front extends farther west along the equator, whereas BLT variability is weaker in the central Pacific than in observations. Further, the BNU-ESM simulations were examined to assess the relative effects of salinity and temperature variability on BLT. Consistent with previous observation-based analyses, the interannual salinity variability can make a significant contribution to BLT relative to temperature in the western-central equatorial Pacific.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41690122, 41690120 and 41475101)the NSFC–Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers (Grant No. U1406401)+1 种基金the NSFC Innovative Group Grant (Project No. 41421005)Taishan Scholarship
文摘Salinity variability and its causes in the tropical Pacific are analyzed using observations, reanalysis products and model simulations. The mixed-layer salinity(MLS) budget analyses from observations and reanalysis products indicate that its interannual evolution is closely related to ENSO and is predominantly governed by surface forcing and surface advection in the western-central equatorial Pacific. It is found that the observed MLS tendency leads Nin?o3.4 by about 12 months due to the effect of negative freshwater flux(evaporation minus precipitation). These observation-based analyses are used to evaluate the corresponding simulation using GFDL-ESM2 M. It is evident that the model can simulate the spatiotemporal variations of MLS with some discrepancies compared to observations. In the warm pool of the equatorial Pacific the MLS tendency in the model is sensitive to ocean dynamics, however model biases cause the tendency to be underestimated. In particular, the freshwater flux is overestimated while the ocean surface zonal current and vertical velocity at the base of the mixed layer are underestimated. Due to model biases in representing the related physics, the effects of surface forcing on the simulated MLS budget are overestimated and those of subsurface and surface advection are relatively weak. Due to weaker surface advection and subsurface forcing than observed, the simulated compensations for surface forcing are suppressed, and the simulated MLS tendency that leads Nin?o3.4 by 8–10 months, which is shorter than the observed lead time. These results are useful for the interpretation of observational analyses and other model simulations in the tropical Pacific.
基金This work is jointly supported by grants from the National Key Research and Development Program(Grant No.2018YFC1505802)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41576029,42030410,41690122(41690120),41420104002)the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant Nos.XDA19060102,XDB 40000000 and XDB 42000000).
文摘After its maturity,El Niño usually decays rapidly in the following summer and evolves into a La Niña pattern.However,this was not the case for the 2018/19 El Niño event.Based on multiple reanalysis data sets,the space-time evolution and triggering mechanism for the unusual second-year warming in late 2019,after the 2018/19 El Niño event,are investigated in the tropical Pacific.After a short decaying period associated with the 2018/19 El Niño condition,positive sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs)re-intensified in the eastern equatorial Pacific in late 2019.Compared with the composite pattern of El Niño in the following year,two key differences are evident in the evolution of SSTAs in 2019.First,is the persistence of the surface warming over the central equatorial Pacific in May,and second,is the re-intensification of the positive SSTAs over the eastern equatorial Pacific in September.Observational results suggest that the re-intensification of anomalous westerly winds over the western and central Pacific,induced remotely by an extreme Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD)event,acted as a triggering mechanism for the second-year warming in late 2019.That is,the IOD-related cold SSTAs in the eastern Indian Ocean established and sustained anomalous surface westerly winds over the western equatorial Pacific,which induced downwelling Kelvin waves propagating eastward along the equator.At the same time,the subsurface ocean provided plenty of warm water in the western and central equatorial Pacific.Mixed-layer heat budget analyses further confirm that positive zonal advection,induced by the anomalous westerly winds,and thermocline feedback played important roles in leading to the second-year warming in late 2019.This study provides new insights into the processes responsible for the diversity of El Niño evolution,which is important for improving the physical understanding and seasonal prediction of El Niño events.
基金jointly supported by grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China[Grant Nos.41576029 and 41690122(41690120)]the National Program on Global Change and Air–Sea Interaction(Grant No.GASIIPOVAI-03)+1 种基金the National Key Research and Development Program(Grant No.2018YFC1505802)the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant Nos.XDA19060102 and XDB 40000000)。
文摘After the strong 2015/16 El Nino event,cold conditions prevailed in the tropical Pacific with the second-year cooling of the 2017/18 La Ni?a event.Many coupled models failed to predict the cold SST anomalies(SSTAs)in 2017.By using the ERA5 and GODAS(Global Ocean Data Assimilation System)products,atmospheric and oceanic factors were examined that could have been responsible for the second-year cooling,including surface wind and the subsurface thermal state.A time sequence is described to demonstrate how the cold SSTAs were produced in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific in late 2017.Since July 2017,easterly anomalies strengthened in the central Pacific;in the meantime,wind stress divergence anomalies emerged in the far eastern region,which strengthened during the following months and propagated westward,contributing to the development of the second-year cooling in 2017.At the subsurface,weak negative temperature anomalies were accompanied by upwelling in the eastern equatorial Pacific,which provided the cold water source for the sea surface.Thereafter,both the cold anomalies and upwelling were enhanced and extended westward in the centraleastern equatorial Pacific.These changes were associated with the seasonally weakened EUC(the Equatorial Undercurrent)and strengthened SEC(the South Equatorial Current),which favored more cold waters being accumulated in the central-equatorial Pacific.Then,the subsurface cold waters stretched upward with the convergence of the horizontal currents and eventually outcropped to the surface.The subsurface-induced SSTAs acted to induce local coupled air–sea interactions,which generated atmospheric–oceanic anomalies developing and evolving into the second-year cooling in the fall of 2017.
基金The National Key Research and Development Program for Developing Basic Sciences under contract Nos 2016YFC1401601 and 2016YFC1401401the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41376026,41690122,41690120 and 41475101+2 种基金the NSFC–Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers under contract No.U1406401the NSFC Innovative Group Grant under contract No.41421005the Taishan Scholarship
文摘A significant strong, warm “Blob”(a large circular water body with a positive ocean temperature anomaly) appeared in the Northeast Pacific (NEP) in the boreal winter of 2013 2014, which induced many extreme climate events in the US and Canada. In this study, analyses of the temperature and salinity anomaly variations from the Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanography (Argo) data provided insights into the formation of the warm “Blob” over the NEP. The early negative salinity anomaly dominantly contributed to the shallower mixed layer depth (MLD) in the NEP during the period of 2012 2013. Then, the shallower mixed layer trapped more heat in the upper water column and resulted in a warmer sea surface temperature (SST), which enhanced the warm “Blob”. The salinity variability contributed to approximately 60% of the shallowing MLD related to the warm “Blob”. The salinity anomaly in the warm “Blob” region resulted from a combination of both local and nonlocal effects. The freshened water at the surface played a local role in the MLD anomaly. Interestingly, the MLD anomaly was more dependent on the local subsurface salinity anomaly in the 100-150 m depth range in the NEP. The salinity anomaly in the 50-100 m depth range may be linked to the anomaly in the 100-150 m depth range by vertical advection or mixing. The salinity anomaly in the 100-150 m depth range resulted from the eastward transportation of a subducted water mass that was freshened west of the dateline, which played a nonlocal role. The results suggest that the early salinity anomaly in the NEP related to the warm “Blob” may be a precursor signal of interannual and interdecadal variabilities.
