The shrinkage of the Aral Sea,which is closely related to the Amu Darya River,strongly affects the sustainability of the local natural ecosystem,agricultural production,and human well-being.In this study,we used the B...The shrinkage of the Aral Sea,which is closely related to the Amu Darya River,strongly affects the sustainability of the local natural ecosystem,agricultural production,and human well-being.In this study,we used the Bayesian Estimator of Abrupt change,Seasonal change,and Trend(BEAST)model to detect the historical change points in the variation of the Aral Sea and the Amu Darya River and analyse the causes of the Aral Sea shrinkage during the 1950–2016 period.Further,we applied multifractal detrend cross-correlation analysis(MF-DCCA)and quantitative analysis to investigate the responses of the Aral Sea to the runoff in the Amu Darya River,which is the main source of recharge to the Aral Sea.Our results showed that two significant trend change points in the water volume change of the Aral Sea occurred,in 1961 and 1974.Before 1961,the water volume in the Aral Sea was stable,after which it began to shrink,with a shrinkage rate fluctuating around 15.21 km3/a.After 1974,the water volume of the Aral Sea decreased substantially at a rate of up to 48.97 km3/a,which was the highest value recorded in this study.In addition,although the response of the Aral Sea's water volume to its recharge runoff demonstrated a complex non-linear relationship,the replenishment of the Aral Sea by the runoff in the lower reaches of the Amu Darya River was identified as the dominant factor affecting the Aral Sea shrinkage.Based on the scenario analyses,we concluded that it is possible to slow down the retreat of the Aral Sea and restore its ecosystem by increasing the efficiency of agricultural water use,decreasing agricultural water use in the middle and lower reaches,reducing ineffective evaporation from reservoirs and wetlands,and increasing the water coming from the lower reaches of the Amu Darya River to the 1961–1973 level.These measures would maintain and stabilise the water area and water volume of the Aral Sea in a state of ecological restoration.Therefore,this study focuses on how human consumption of recharge runoff affects the Aral Sea and provides scientific perspective on its ecological conservation and sustainable development.展开更多
Landslides have occurred frequently in the Luoshan mining area because of disordered mining.This paper discusses the landforms and physiognomy,hydro-meteorology,formation lithology,and geologic structure of the Luosha...Landslides have occurred frequently in the Luoshan mining area because of disordered mining.This paper discusses the landforms and physiognomy,hydro-meteorology,formation lithology,and geologic structure of the Luoshan mining area.It also describes the factors influencing the slope stability of landslide No.Ⅲ,determines the general parameters and typical section plane,analyzes the stress-strain state of the No.Ⅲ slope,and calculates its safety factors with FLAC3 D under saturated and natural conditions.Based on a stability analysis,a remote real-time monitoring system was applied to the No.Ⅲ slope,and these monitoring data were collected and analyzed.展开更多
In order to understand failure mechanisms of the tunnel excavated in the stratified rock masses in deep mine, the physical modeling experiment by using the large-scale model was carried out. The field case simulated i...In order to understand failure mechanisms of the tunnel excavated in the stratified rock masses in deep mine, the physical modeling experiment by using the large-scale model was carried out. The field case simulated in the experiment is a main connection tunnel located at depth of 1000 m in Qishan coal mine,Xuzhou mining district. Tunnel deformation was monitored by using strain gauges and a video camera simultaneously. Crack initiation and propagation process during the test were analyzed based on image analysis of the captured video photographs. At the same time, deformation process of the key monitoring points around the tunnel section is given by the monitored strain plots. Under the increasing external loads, crack initiation occurs firstly on the left wall of the tunnel, then on the immediate roof.Complete failure of the tunnel occurs as a result of the slippage of the rock layers along the interfaces.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42230708)the Joint CAS (Chinese Academy of Sciences) & MPG (Max-Planck-Gesellschaft) Research Project (HZXM20225001MI)the Tianshan Talent Project of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China (2022TSYCLJ0056)。
文摘The shrinkage of the Aral Sea,which is closely related to the Amu Darya River,strongly affects the sustainability of the local natural ecosystem,agricultural production,and human well-being.In this study,we used the Bayesian Estimator of Abrupt change,Seasonal change,and Trend(BEAST)model to detect the historical change points in the variation of the Aral Sea and the Amu Darya River and analyse the causes of the Aral Sea shrinkage during the 1950–2016 period.Further,we applied multifractal detrend cross-correlation analysis(MF-DCCA)and quantitative analysis to investigate the responses of the Aral Sea to the runoff in the Amu Darya River,which is the main source of recharge to the Aral Sea.Our results showed that two significant trend change points in the water volume change of the Aral Sea occurred,in 1961 and 1974.Before 1961,the water volume in the Aral Sea was stable,after which it began to shrink,with a shrinkage rate fluctuating around 15.21 km3/a.After 1974,the water volume of the Aral Sea decreased substantially at a rate of up to 48.97 km3/a,which was the highest value recorded in this study.In addition,although the response of the Aral Sea's water volume to its recharge runoff demonstrated a complex non-linear relationship,the replenishment of the Aral Sea by the runoff in the lower reaches of the Amu Darya River was identified as the dominant factor affecting the Aral Sea shrinkage.Based on the scenario analyses,we concluded that it is possible to slow down the retreat of the Aral Sea and restore its ecosystem by increasing the efficiency of agricultural water use,decreasing agricultural water use in the middle and lower reaches,reducing ineffective evaporation from reservoirs and wetlands,and increasing the water coming from the lower reaches of the Amu Darya River to the 1961–1973 level.These measures would maintain and stabilise the water area and water volume of the Aral Sea in a state of ecological restoration.Therefore,this study focuses on how human consumption of recharge runoff affects the Aral Sea and provides scientific perspective on its ecological conservation and sustainable development.
文摘Landslides have occurred frequently in the Luoshan mining area because of disordered mining.This paper discusses the landforms and physiognomy,hydro-meteorology,formation lithology,and geologic structure of the Luoshan mining area.It also describes the factors influencing the slope stability of landslide No.Ⅲ,determines the general parameters and typical section plane,analyzes the stress-strain state of the No.Ⅲ slope,and calculates its safety factors with FLAC3 D under saturated and natural conditions.Based on a stability analysis,a remote real-time monitoring system was applied to the No.Ⅲ slope,and these monitoring data were collected and analyzed.
文摘In order to understand failure mechanisms of the tunnel excavated in the stratified rock masses in deep mine, the physical modeling experiment by using the large-scale model was carried out. The field case simulated in the experiment is a main connection tunnel located at depth of 1000 m in Qishan coal mine,Xuzhou mining district. Tunnel deformation was monitored by using strain gauges and a video camera simultaneously. Crack initiation and propagation process during the test were analyzed based on image analysis of the captured video photographs. At the same time, deformation process of the key monitoring points around the tunnel section is given by the monitored strain plots. Under the increasing external loads, crack initiation occurs firstly on the left wall of the tunnel, then on the immediate roof.Complete failure of the tunnel occurs as a result of the slippage of the rock layers along the interfaces.
