This study analyzed the spatial-temporal heterogeneity of green development efficiency and its influencing factors in the growing Xuzhou Metropolitan Area for the period 2000–2015.The slacks-based measure(SBM)model,s...This study analyzed the spatial-temporal heterogeneity of green development efficiency and its influencing factors in the growing Xuzhou Metropolitan Area for the period 2000–2015.The slacks-based measure(SBM)model,spatial autocorrelation,and the geographically weighted regression(GWR)model were used to conduct the analysis.The conclusions were as follows:first,the overall efficiency of green development of the Xuzhou Metropolitan Area decreased,the regional differences and spatial agglomeration shrunk and differences within the region were the main contributors to the regional differences of green development efficiency.Second,the counties with high-efficiency green development were distributed along the coast,and along the routes of the Beijing-Shanghai and the Eastern Longhai railways.A developing axis of the high-efficiency counties was the main feature of the spatial pattern for green development efficiency.Third,regarding spatial correlation and green development efficiency,the High-High type counties in the Xuzhou Metropolitan Area formed a centralized distribution corridor along the inter-provincial border areas of Henan and Jiangsu,whereas the Low-Low type counties were concentrated in the external,marginal parts of the metropolitan area.Fourth,the major factors(ranked in decreasing order of impact)influencing green development efficiency were innovation,government regulations,the economic development level,energy consumption,and industrial structure.These factors exerted their influence to varying extents;the influence of the same factor had different effects in different regions and obvious spatial differences were observed for the different regions.展开更多
This paper develops a conceptual model and an indicator system for measuring economic resilience of resource-based cities based on the theory of evolutionary resilience and the related concepts of persistence, adaptat...This paper develops a conceptual model and an indicator system for measuring economic resilience of resource-based cities based on the theory of evolutionary resilience and the related concepts of persistence, adaptation, and transformation. Nineteen resource-based cities in Northeast China were analyzed using the indicator system. The results showed that Liaoning and Jilin provinces had higher economic resilience than Heilongjiang Province. Panjin, Benxi, and Anshan in Liaoning Province were the top three cities, while Shuangyashan and other coal-based cities in Heilongjiang Province ranked last. Metals-and petroleum-based cities had significantly higher resilience than coal-based cities. The differences in persistence, adaptability, transformation, and resilience among resource-based cities decreased since the introduction of the Northeast Revitalization Strategy in 2003. Forestry-based cities improved the most in terms of resilience, followed by metals-based and multiple-resource cities; however, resilience dropped for coal-based cities, and petroleum-based cities falling the most. The findings illustrate the importance and the way to develop a differentiated approach to improve resilience among resource-based cities.展开更多
基金Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41671123,41971158,41671122)Major Project of Philosophy and Social Science Research of Jiangsu Universities(No.2018SJZDA010).
文摘This study analyzed the spatial-temporal heterogeneity of green development efficiency and its influencing factors in the growing Xuzhou Metropolitan Area for the period 2000–2015.The slacks-based measure(SBM)model,spatial autocorrelation,and the geographically weighted regression(GWR)model were used to conduct the analysis.The conclusions were as follows:first,the overall efficiency of green development of the Xuzhou Metropolitan Area decreased,the regional differences and spatial agglomeration shrunk and differences within the region were the main contributors to the regional differences of green development efficiency.Second,the counties with high-efficiency green development were distributed along the coast,and along the routes of the Beijing-Shanghai and the Eastern Longhai railways.A developing axis of the high-efficiency counties was the main feature of the spatial pattern for green development efficiency.Third,regarding spatial correlation and green development efficiency,the High-High type counties in the Xuzhou Metropolitan Area formed a centralized distribution corridor along the inter-provincial border areas of Henan and Jiangsu,whereas the Low-Low type counties were concentrated in the external,marginal parts of the metropolitan area.Fourth,the major factors(ranked in decreasing order of impact)influencing green development efficiency were innovation,government regulations,the economic development level,energy consumption,and industrial structure.These factors exerted their influence to varying extents;the influence of the same factor had different effects in different regions and obvious spatial differences were observed for the different regions.
文摘目的筛选肝硬化伴自发性细菌性腹膜炎(spontaneous bacterial peritonitis,SBP)的影响因素,建立肝硬化伴SBP的诊断模型。方法收集重庆A、B两家三甲医院2015年7月至2019年12月肝硬化患者7461例,根据患者住院期间是否发生SBP分为SBP组(1173例)和非SBP组(6288例)。随机抽取A院70%(3776例)患者作为训练集,剩余30%(1619例)作为内部验证集,B院患者(2066例)作为外部验证集。通过单因素分析和Logistic回归分析筛选变量,建立Logistic回归、随机森林、决策树、XGBoost和优化Logistic回归模型。在内部验证和外部验证中,比较并验证模型对肝硬化伴SBP的诊断价值。结果机器学习算法均提示指标失代偿(OR=5.354,95%CI:3.770-7.803),淋巴细胞百分比(OR=0.951,95%CI:0.939-0.962)、总胆红素(OR=1.003,95%CI:1.002-1.004)、C反应蛋白是否异常(OR=1.626,95%CI:1.310-2.017)、国际标准化比值(OR=1.346,95%CI:1.091-1.681)、前白蛋白(OR=0.990,95%CI:0.987-0.993)、终末期肝病模型评分(model for end stage liver disease,MELD)(OR=1.038,95%CI:1.015-1.063)为显著性因素,优化Logistic内部验证的AUC为0.860,灵敏度0.872,特异度0.719;外部验证的AUC为0.818;灵敏度为0.662,特异度为0.812。经过delong test检测优化Logistic回归模型和其余模型的AUC差异无统计学意义。结论基于机器学习算法建立的肝硬化合并SBP风险预测模型具有较高的诊断价值,其中优化Logistic回归模型的诊断效能在内部验证和外部验证中均表现良好,可为临床诊断SBP提供参考。
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41571152,41201160,41601124,41201159,71541021)the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.KSZD-EW-Z-021)the Key Consulting Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.Y02015005)
文摘This paper develops a conceptual model and an indicator system for measuring economic resilience of resource-based cities based on the theory of evolutionary resilience and the related concepts of persistence, adaptation, and transformation. Nineteen resource-based cities in Northeast China were analyzed using the indicator system. The results showed that Liaoning and Jilin provinces had higher economic resilience than Heilongjiang Province. Panjin, Benxi, and Anshan in Liaoning Province were the top three cities, while Shuangyashan and other coal-based cities in Heilongjiang Province ranked last. Metals-and petroleum-based cities had significantly higher resilience than coal-based cities. The differences in persistence, adaptability, transformation, and resilience among resource-based cities decreased since the introduction of the Northeast Revitalization Strategy in 2003. Forestry-based cities improved the most in terms of resilience, followed by metals-based and multiple-resource cities; however, resilience dropped for coal-based cities, and petroleum-based cities falling the most. The findings illustrate the importance and the way to develop a differentiated approach to improve resilience among resource-based cities.
