不同环境因子组合和负样本选取策略对崩岗易发性评价结果存在较多不确定性。为探究其对评价结果的影响,该研究以江西省兴国县花岗岩区为例,利用地理探测器探测17个环境因子的统计量q值,根据累计q值百分比大小依次选择4、7、10和17个环...不同环境因子组合和负样本选取策略对崩岗易发性评价结果存在较多不确定性。为探究其对评价结果的影响,该研究以江西省兴国县花岗岩区为例,利用地理探测器探测17个环境因子的统计量q值,根据累计q值百分比大小依次选择4、7、10和17个环境因子进行组合;利用单随机欠采样、频率比法及改进频率比法等负样本选取策略构建与正样本等量的负样本数据集;采用随机森林模型进行易发性评价,并对评价结果进行对比分析。结果表明:1)3种负样本选取策略下的模型精度随着因子数量的增加先下降再上升,考虑4个环境因子的模型AUC(area under curve)值分别为0.729、0.909和0.909,较最优环境因子组合仅相差0.020~0.038,说明考虑主控环境因子,即可得到较为理想的精度;2)通过频率比法选取的负样本数据集更具合理性;3)研究区内高和极高易发区主要分布在兴国县西南部,而极低易发区主要分布在兴国县北部及东部,这与实际情况较吻合。该研究通过探究不同环境因子组合和负样本选取策略对崩岗易发性评价的影响,可为花岗岩区崩岗的防灾减灾提供科学依据。展开更多
Gas hydrate drilling expeditions in the Pearl River Mouth Basin,South China Sea,have identified concentrated gas hydrates with variable thickness.Moreover,free gas and the coexistence of gas hydrate and free gas have ...Gas hydrate drilling expeditions in the Pearl River Mouth Basin,South China Sea,have identified concentrated gas hydrates with variable thickness.Moreover,free gas and the coexistence of gas hydrate and free gas have been confirmed by logging,coring,and production tests in the foraminifera-rich silty sediments with complex bottom-simulating reflectors(BSRs).The broad-band processing is conducted on conventional three-dimensional(3D)seismic data to improve the image and detection accuracy of gas hydratebearing layers and delineate the saturation and thickness of gas hydrate-and free gas-bearing sediments.Several geophysical attributes extracted along the base of the gas hydrate stability zone are used to demonstrate the variable distribution and the controlling factors for the differential enrichment of gas hydrate.The inverted gas hydrate saturation at the production zone is over 40% with a thickness of 90 m,showing the interbedded distribution with different boundaries between gas hydrate-and free gas-bearing layers.However,the gas hydrate saturation value at the adjacent canyon is 70%,with 30-m-thick patches and linear features.The lithological and fault controls on gas hydrate and free gas distributions are demonstrated by tracing each gas hydrate-bearing layer.Moreover,the BSR depths based on broad-band reprocessed 3D seismic data not only exhibit variations due to small-scale topographic changes caused by seafloor sedimentation and erosion but also show the upward shift of BSR and the blocky distribution of the coexistence of gas hydrate and free gas in the Pearl River Mouth Basin.展开更多
文摘不同环境因子组合和负样本选取策略对崩岗易发性评价结果存在较多不确定性。为探究其对评价结果的影响,该研究以江西省兴国县花岗岩区为例,利用地理探测器探测17个环境因子的统计量q值,根据累计q值百分比大小依次选择4、7、10和17个环境因子进行组合;利用单随机欠采样、频率比法及改进频率比法等负样本选取策略构建与正样本等量的负样本数据集;采用随机森林模型进行易发性评价,并对评价结果进行对比分析。结果表明:1)3种负样本选取策略下的模型精度随着因子数量的增加先下降再上升,考虑4个环境因子的模型AUC(area under curve)值分别为0.729、0.909和0.909,较最优环境因子组合仅相差0.020~0.038,说明考虑主控环境因子,即可得到较为理想的精度;2)通过频率比法选取的负样本数据集更具合理性;3)研究区内高和极高易发区主要分布在兴国县西南部,而极低易发区主要分布在兴国县北部及东部,这与实际情况较吻合。该研究通过探究不同环境因子组合和负样本选取策略对崩岗易发性评价的影响,可为花岗岩区崩岗的防灾减灾提供科学依据。
基金supported by the State Key Laboratory of Natural Gas Hydrate(No.2022-KFJJ-SHW)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42376058)+2 种基金the International Science&Technology Cooperation Program of China(No.2023YFE0119900)the Hainan Province Key Research and Development Project(No.ZDYF2024GXJS002)the Research Start-Up Funds of Zhufeng Scholars Program.
文摘Gas hydrate drilling expeditions in the Pearl River Mouth Basin,South China Sea,have identified concentrated gas hydrates with variable thickness.Moreover,free gas and the coexistence of gas hydrate and free gas have been confirmed by logging,coring,and production tests in the foraminifera-rich silty sediments with complex bottom-simulating reflectors(BSRs).The broad-band processing is conducted on conventional three-dimensional(3D)seismic data to improve the image and detection accuracy of gas hydratebearing layers and delineate the saturation and thickness of gas hydrate-and free gas-bearing sediments.Several geophysical attributes extracted along the base of the gas hydrate stability zone are used to demonstrate the variable distribution and the controlling factors for the differential enrichment of gas hydrate.The inverted gas hydrate saturation at the production zone is over 40% with a thickness of 90 m,showing the interbedded distribution with different boundaries between gas hydrate-and free gas-bearing layers.However,the gas hydrate saturation value at the adjacent canyon is 70%,with 30-m-thick patches and linear features.The lithological and fault controls on gas hydrate and free gas distributions are demonstrated by tracing each gas hydrate-bearing layer.Moreover,the BSR depths based on broad-band reprocessed 3D seismic data not only exhibit variations due to small-scale topographic changes caused by seafloor sedimentation and erosion but also show the upward shift of BSR and the blocky distribution of the coexistence of gas hydrate and free gas in the Pearl River Mouth Basin.
