Climate models are vital for understanding and projecting global climate change and its associated impacts.However,these models suffer from biases that limit their accuracy in historical simulations and the trustworth...Climate models are vital for understanding and projecting global climate change and its associated impacts.However,these models suffer from biases that limit their accuracy in historical simulations and the trustworthiness of future projections.Addressing these challenges requires addressing internal variability,hindering the direct alignment between model simulations and observations,and thwarting conventional supervised learning methods.Here,we employ an unsupervised Cycle-consistent Generative Adversarial Network(CycleGAN),to correct daily Sea Surface Temperature(SST)simulations from the Community Earth System Model 2(CESM2).Our results reveal that the CycleGAN not only corrects climatological biases but also improves the simulation of major dynamic modes including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the Indian Ocean Dipole mode,as well as SST extremes.Notably,it substantially corrects climatological SST biases,decreasing the globally averaged Root-Mean-Square Error(RMSE)by 58%.Intriguingly,the CycleGAN effectively addresses the well-known excessive westward bias in ENSO SST anomalies,a common issue in climate models that traditional methods,like quantile mapping,struggle to rectify.Additionally,it substantially improves the simulation of SST extremes,raising the pattern correlation coefficient(PCC)from 0.56 to 0.88 and lowering the RMSE from 0.5 to 0.32.This enhancement is attributed to better representations of interannual,intraseasonal,and synoptic scales variabilities.Our study offers a novel approach to correct global SST simulations and underscores its effectiveness across different time scales and primary dynamical modes.展开更多
Artificial intelligence(AI)models have significantly impacted various areas of the atmospheric sciences,reshaping our approach to climate-related challenges.Amid this AI-driven transformation,the foundational role of ...Artificial intelligence(AI)models have significantly impacted various areas of the atmospheric sciences,reshaping our approach to climate-related challenges.Amid this AI-driven transformation,the foundational role of physics in climate science has occasionally been overlooked.Our perspective suggests that the future of climate modeling involves a synergistic partnership between AI and physics,rather than an“either/or”scenario.Scrutinizing controversies around current physical inconsistencies in large AI models,we stress the critical need for detailed dynamic diagnostics and physical constraints.Furthermore,we provide illustrative examples to guide future assessments and constraints for AI models.Regarding AI integration with numerical models,we argue that offline AI parameterization schemes may fall short of achieving global optimality,emphasizing the importance of constructing online schemes.Additionally,we highlight the significance of fostering a community culture and propose the OCR(Open,Comparable,Reproducible)principles.Through a better community culture and a deep integration of physics and AI,we contend that developing a learnable climate model,balancing AI and physics,is an achievable goal.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42141019 and 42261144687)the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(STEP)program(Grant No.2019QZKK0102)+4 种基金the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDB42010404)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42175049)the Guangdong Meteorological Service Science and Technology Research Project(Grant No.GRMC2021M01)the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project“Earth System Science Numerical Simulator Facility”(EarthLab)for computational support and Prof.Shiming XIANG for many useful discussionsNiklas BOERS acknowledges funding from the Volkswagen foundation.
文摘Climate models are vital for understanding and projecting global climate change and its associated impacts.However,these models suffer from biases that limit their accuracy in historical simulations and the trustworthiness of future projections.Addressing these challenges requires addressing internal variability,hindering the direct alignment between model simulations and observations,and thwarting conventional supervised learning methods.Here,we employ an unsupervised Cycle-consistent Generative Adversarial Network(CycleGAN),to correct daily Sea Surface Temperature(SST)simulations from the Community Earth System Model 2(CESM2).Our results reveal that the CycleGAN not only corrects climatological biases but also improves the simulation of major dynamic modes including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the Indian Ocean Dipole mode,as well as SST extremes.Notably,it substantially corrects climatological SST biases,decreasing the globally averaged Root-Mean-Square Error(RMSE)by 58%.Intriguingly,the CycleGAN effectively addresses the well-known excessive westward bias in ENSO SST anomalies,a common issue in climate models that traditional methods,like quantile mapping,struggle to rectify.Additionally,it substantially improves the simulation of SST extremes,raising the pattern correlation coefficient(PCC)from 0.56 to 0.88 and lowering the RMSE from 0.5 to 0.32.This enhancement is attributed to better representations of interannual,intraseasonal,and synoptic scales variabilities.Our study offers a novel approach to correct global SST simulations and underscores its effectiveness across different time scales and primary dynamical modes.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42141019 and 42261144687)and STEP(Grant No.2019QZKK0102)supported by the Korea Environmental Industry&Technology Institute(KEITI)through the“Project for developing an observation-based GHG emissions geospatial information map”,funded by the Korea Ministry of Environment(MOE)(Grant No.RS-2023-00232066).
文摘Artificial intelligence(AI)models have significantly impacted various areas of the atmospheric sciences,reshaping our approach to climate-related challenges.Amid this AI-driven transformation,the foundational role of physics in climate science has occasionally been overlooked.Our perspective suggests that the future of climate modeling involves a synergistic partnership between AI and physics,rather than an“either/or”scenario.Scrutinizing controversies around current physical inconsistencies in large AI models,we stress the critical need for detailed dynamic diagnostics and physical constraints.Furthermore,we provide illustrative examples to guide future assessments and constraints for AI models.Regarding AI integration with numerical models,we argue that offline AI parameterization schemes may fall short of achieving global optimality,emphasizing the importance of constructing online schemes.Additionally,we highlight the significance of fostering a community culture and propose the OCR(Open,Comparable,Reproducible)principles.Through a better community culture and a deep integration of physics and AI,we contend that developing a learnable climate model,balancing AI and physics,is an achievable goal.
