Hepatitis B is an infectious disease worthy of attention.Considering the incubation period,psychological inhibition factor,vaccine,limited medical resources and horizontal transmission,an SIRS model is proposed to des...Hepatitis B is an infectious disease worthy of attention.Considering the incubation period,psychological inhibition factor,vaccine,limited medical resources and horizontal transmission,an SIRS model is proposed to describe hepatitis B transmission dynamics.In order to describe the behavior changes caused by people's psychological changes,the non-monotonic incidence rate is adopted in the model.We use the saturated treatment rate to describe the limited medical resources.Mathematical analysis shows the existence conditions of the equilibria,forward or backward bifurcation,Hopf bifurcation and the Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation.During the observation of the case data of hepatitis B in China,it is found that there are mainly three features,periodic outbreaks,aperiodic outbreaks,and periodic outbreaks turns to aperiodic outbreaks.According to the above features,we select three different representative regions,Jiangxi,Zhejiang province and Beijing,and then use our model to fit the actual monthly hepatitis B case data.The basic reproduction numbers that we estimated are 1.7712,1.4805 and 1.4132,respectively.The results of data fitting are consistent with those of theoretical analysis.According to the sensitivity analysis of Ro,we conclude that reducing contact,increasing treatment rate,strengthening vaccination and revaccinating can effectively prevent and control the prevalence of hepatitis B.展开更多
Background and Aims:Chronic kidney disease(CKD)usually occurs during the chronic infection of hepatitis B virus(HBV).However,the risk factors of CKD in an HBV population have not been completely demonstrated.Our prese...Background and Aims:Chronic kidney disease(CKD)usually occurs during the chronic infection of hepatitis B virus(HBV).However,the risk factors of CKD in an HBV population have not been completely demonstrated.Our present study aimed to investigate the risk factors of CKD in chronic HBV infection using a hospital based cross-sectional study in the northern area of China.Methods:During January 2013 to December 2017,a total of 94 patients with CKD complicated by chronic HBV infection were consecutively enrolled in the study,as well as 548 age-and sex-matched hepatitis B patients without CKD who were enrolled as controls.Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were used to determine the effects of each variable after adjusting for cofounding factors.Results:Multivariate analysis showed that HBeAg-positive status(odds ratio[OR]=2.099,95%CI 1.128-3.907),dyslipidemia(OR:3.025,95%CI 1.747-5.239),and hypertension(OR:12.523,95%CI 6.283-24.958)were independently associ-ated with the incidence of CKD,while duration of HBV in-fection(≥240 months)(OR:0.401,95%CI 0.179-0.894),Log10 HBsAg(OR:0.514,95%CI 0.336-0.786),and coro-nary heart disease(OR:0.078,95%CI 0.008-0.768)were protective factors for the incidence of CKD.Duration of HBV infection,Log10 HBsAg,HBeAg-positive status and dyslipidemia remained the risk factors for CKD after adjusting for diabetes mellitus,hypertension,and coronary heart disease.Conclusions:Duration of HBV infection,Log10 HB-sAg,HBeAg-positive status and dyslipidemia contributed to the incidence of CKD during chronic HBV infection in a Chinese population.展开更多
文摘Hepatitis B is an infectious disease worthy of attention.Considering the incubation period,psychological inhibition factor,vaccine,limited medical resources and horizontal transmission,an SIRS model is proposed to describe hepatitis B transmission dynamics.In order to describe the behavior changes caused by people's psychological changes,the non-monotonic incidence rate is adopted in the model.We use the saturated treatment rate to describe the limited medical resources.Mathematical analysis shows the existence conditions of the equilibria,forward or backward bifurcation,Hopf bifurcation and the Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation.During the observation of the case data of hepatitis B in China,it is found that there are mainly three features,periodic outbreaks,aperiodic outbreaks,and periodic outbreaks turns to aperiodic outbreaks.According to the above features,we select three different representative regions,Jiangxi,Zhejiang province and Beijing,and then use our model to fit the actual monthly hepatitis B case data.The basic reproduction numbers that we estimated are 1.7712,1.4805 and 1.4132,respectively.The results of data fitting are consistent with those of theoretical analysis.According to the sensitivity analysis of Ro,we conclude that reducing contact,increasing treatment rate,strengthening vaccination and revaccinating can effectively prevent and control the prevalence of hepatitis B.
基金supported by grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.82070746,81670660,81970522,82000692)the Department of Science&Technology of Shandong Province(No.2019GSF108087)the Young Taishan Scholars(tsqn202103169).
文摘Background and Aims:Chronic kidney disease(CKD)usually occurs during the chronic infection of hepatitis B virus(HBV).However,the risk factors of CKD in an HBV population have not been completely demonstrated.Our present study aimed to investigate the risk factors of CKD in chronic HBV infection using a hospital based cross-sectional study in the northern area of China.Methods:During January 2013 to December 2017,a total of 94 patients with CKD complicated by chronic HBV infection were consecutively enrolled in the study,as well as 548 age-and sex-matched hepatitis B patients without CKD who were enrolled as controls.Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were used to determine the effects of each variable after adjusting for cofounding factors.Results:Multivariate analysis showed that HBeAg-positive status(odds ratio[OR]=2.099,95%CI 1.128-3.907),dyslipidemia(OR:3.025,95%CI 1.747-5.239),and hypertension(OR:12.523,95%CI 6.283-24.958)were independently associ-ated with the incidence of CKD,while duration of HBV in-fection(≥240 months)(OR:0.401,95%CI 0.179-0.894),Log10 HBsAg(OR:0.514,95%CI 0.336-0.786),and coro-nary heart disease(OR:0.078,95%CI 0.008-0.768)were protective factors for the incidence of CKD.Duration of HBV infection,Log10 HBsAg,HBeAg-positive status and dyslipidemia remained the risk factors for CKD after adjusting for diabetes mellitus,hypertension,and coronary heart disease.Conclusions:Duration of HBV infection,Log10 HB-sAg,HBeAg-positive status and dyslipidemia contributed to the incidence of CKD during chronic HBV infection in a Chinese population.
