亚太经合组织地震科学合作(APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Science,简称ACES)是亚太经合组织科技创新政策伙伴关系机制(Policy Partnership on Science,Technology and Innovation,简称PPSTI)下设的8个科技合作项目之一,参与合作的...亚太经合组织地震科学合作(APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Science,简称ACES)是亚太经合组织科技创新政策伙伴关系机制(Policy Partnership on Science,Technology and Innovation,简称PPSTI)下设的8个科技合作项目之一,参与合作的经济体主要有澳大利亚、中国、日本、美国、加拿大、新西兰、中国台湾、韩国等。自1997年提出建议获批至今,项目已经运行了20余年,获得了大量科技成果,本文概述了亚太经合组织地震科学合作项目的起源、运作机制、合作形式、合作方向、主要合作成果和未来展望。展开更多
Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is a new promising approach to earthquake prediction. In the previous years, a series of successful medium-term predictions have been made for strong earthquakes on the Chinese mainla...Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is a new promising approach to earthquake prediction. In the previous years, a series of successful medium-term predictions have been made for strong earthquakes on the Chinese mainland using this method. In order to investigate whether the LURR method applies to different tectonic regimes, i.e., whether it is universal, the San Andreas Fault and its vicinities are chosen as the study region in this paper. The spatial variation of LURR in the western United States (30°～50°N, 100°～130°W) is studied in detail and the earthquake tendency in this region is discussed based on historic earthquake cases.展开更多
Previous studies have shown that the active tectonic block boundaries in the Chinese mainland are the main belts and concentration areas of strong earthquakes occurring in the Chinese mainland.It is essential to carry...Previous studies have shown that the active tectonic block boundaries in the Chinese mainland are the main belts and concentration areas of strong earthquakes occurring in the Chinese mainland.It is essential to carry out follow-up analysis of strong earthquake risk of active tectonic block boundaries.In this paper,we carry out the analysis on the tendency of strong earthquakes along each active tectonic block boundary from three aspects respectively,including the evolutionary characteristics of the Load/Unload Response Ratio time series,the probability method based on the log-normal distribution function,and variation of b value.The estimation of strong earthquake criticality on each active tectonic block boundary is done based on the evolutionary characteristics of the Load/Unload Response Ratio time series,the cumulative probability and conditional probability,and the decrease of the b value.Finally,according to the results of analyses on the above three aspects,the potential strong earthquake areas in the forthcoming 5 years in the Chinese mainland are discussed.展开更多
The variation of Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) against time for earthquakes in Kerman Province, Iran, on February 22, 2005, M6.4 and in Lorestan Province, Iran, on March 31, 2006, M6.1, has been calculated and ana...The variation of Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) against time for earthquakes in Kerman Province, Iran, on February 22, 2005, M6.4 and in Lorestan Province, Iran, on March 31, 2006, M6.1, has been calculated and analysed in this paper. The tempo-spatial scanning of LURR in the region of Iran during January 1, 2003 to March 31, 2006 has been conducted, with 1 year as a time-window, 1 month as a time-step, and the comparison of the LURR anomalous regions in 2004 with the actual earthquakes with M≥5.0 in the next year (2005) is also given, which shows that 11 earthquakes with M≥5.0 occurred in LURR anomalous regions while 12 earthquakes with M≥5.0 in LURR regions in 2005. Furthermore, the seismicity in this region is studied by investigating the evolvement of the anomalous LURR regions.展开更多
文摘亚太经合组织地震科学合作(APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Science,简称ACES)是亚太经合组织科技创新政策伙伴关系机制(Policy Partnership on Science,Technology and Innovation,简称PPSTI)下设的8个科技合作项目之一,参与合作的经济体主要有澳大利亚、中国、日本、美国、加拿大、新西兰、中国台湾、韩国等。自1997年提出建议获批至今,项目已经运行了20余年,获得了大量科技成果,本文概述了亚太经合组织地震科学合作项目的起源、运作机制、合作形式、合作方向、主要合作成果和未来展望。
文摘Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is a new promising approach to earthquake prediction. In the previous years, a series of successful medium-term predictions have been made for strong earthquakes on the Chinese mainland using this method. In order to investigate whether the LURR method applies to different tectonic regimes, i.e., whether it is universal, the San Andreas Fault and its vicinities are chosen as the study region in this paper. The spatial variation of LURR in the western United States (30°～50°N, 100°～130°W) is studied in detail and the earthquake tendency in this region is discussed based on historic earthquake cases.
基金sponsored by the Special Basic Scientific Research Program of Institute of Earthquake Science(02092425),China Earthquake Administration
文摘Previous studies have shown that the active tectonic block boundaries in the Chinese mainland are the main belts and concentration areas of strong earthquakes occurring in the Chinese mainland.It is essential to carry out follow-up analysis of strong earthquake risk of active tectonic block boundaries.In this paper,we carry out the analysis on the tendency of strong earthquakes along each active tectonic block boundary from three aspects respectively,including the evolutionary characteristics of the Load/Unload Response Ratio time series,the probability method based on the log-normal distribution function,and variation of b value.The estimation of strong earthquake criticality on each active tectonic block boundary is done based on the evolutionary characteristics of the Load/Unload Response Ratio time series,the cumulative probability and conditional probability,and the decrease of the b value.Finally,according to the results of analyses on the above three aspects,the potential strong earthquake areas in the forthcoming 5 years in the Chinese mainland are discussed.
基金This project was sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China ( Grant No.10232050 , No.10572140)the State "973"Programme of China(2002CB412706)
文摘The variation of Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) against time for earthquakes in Kerman Province, Iran, on February 22, 2005, M6.4 and in Lorestan Province, Iran, on March 31, 2006, M6.1, has been calculated and analysed in this paper. The tempo-spatial scanning of LURR in the region of Iran during January 1, 2003 to March 31, 2006 has been conducted, with 1 year as a time-window, 1 month as a time-step, and the comparison of the LURR anomalous regions in 2004 with the actual earthquakes with M≥5.0 in the next year (2005) is also given, which shows that 11 earthquakes with M≥5.0 occurred in LURR anomalous regions while 12 earthquakes with M≥5.0 in LURR regions in 2005. Furthermore, the seismicity in this region is studied by investigating the evolvement of the anomalous LURR regions.
