Electricity demand is also known as load in electric power system.This article presents a Long-Term Load Forecasting(LTLF)approach for Malaysia.An Artificial Neural Network(ANN)of 5-layer Multi-Layered Perceptron(MLP)...Electricity demand is also known as load in electric power system.This article presents a Long-Term Load Forecasting(LTLF)approach for Malaysia.An Artificial Neural Network(ANN)of 5-layer Multi-Layered Perceptron(MLP)structure has been designed and tested for this purpose.Uncertainties of input variables and ANN model were introduced to obtain the prediction for years 2022 to 2030.Pearson correlation was used to examine the input variables for model construction.The analysis indicates that Primary Energy Supply(PES),population,Gross Domestic Product(GDP)and temperature are strongly correlated.The forecast results by the proposed method(henceforth referred to as UQ-SNN)were compared with the results obtained by a conventional Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average(SARIMA)model.The R^(2)scores for UQ-SNN and SARIMA are 0.9994 and 0.9787,respectively,indicating that UQ-SNN is more accurate in capturing the non-linearity and the underlying relationships between the input and output variables.The proposed method can be easily extended to include other input variables to increase the model complexity and is suitable for LTLF.With the available input data,UQ-SNN predicts Malaysia will consume 207.22 TWh of electricity,with standard deviation(SD)of 6.10 TWh by 2030.展开更多
Aircraft engine design is a complicated process,as it involves huge number of components.The design process begins with parametric cycle analysis.It is crucial to determine the optimum values of the cycle parameters t...Aircraft engine design is a complicated process,as it involves huge number of components.The design process begins with parametric cycle analysis.It is crucial to determine the optimum values of the cycle parameters that would give a robust design in the early phase of engine development,to shorten the design cycle for cost saving and man-hour reduction.To obtain a robust solution,optimisation program is often being executed more than once,especially in Reliability Based Design Optimisations(RBDO)with Monte-Carlo Simulation(MCS)scheme for complex systems which require thousands to millions of optimisation loops to be executed.This paper presents a fast heuristic technique to optimise the thermodynamic cycle of two-spool separated flow turbofan engines based on energy and probability of failure criteria based on Luus-Jaakola algorithm(LJ).A computer program called Turbo Jet Engine Optimiser v2.0(TJEO-2.0)has been developed to perform the optimisation calculation.The program is made up of inner and outer loops,where LJ is used in the outer loop to determine the design variables while parametric cycle analysis of the engine is done in the inner loop to determine the engine performance.Latin-Hypercube-Sampling(LHS)technique is used to sample the design and model variations for uncertainty analysis.The results show that optimisation without reliability criteria may lead to high probability of failure of more than 11%on average.The thrust obtained with uncertainty quantification was about 25%higher than the one without uncertainty quantification,at the expense of less than 3%of fuel consumption.The proposed algorithm can solve the turbofan RBDO problem within 3 min.展开更多
Accurate prediction of wind turbine power curve is essential for wind farm planning as it influences the expected power production.Existing methods require detailed wind turbine geometry for performance evaluation,whi...Accurate prediction of wind turbine power curve is essential for wind farm planning as it influences the expected power production.Existing methods require detailed wind turbine geometry for performance evaluation,which most of the time unattainable and impractical in early stage of wind farm planning.While significant amount of work has been done on fitting of wind turbine power curve using parametric and non-parametric models,little to no attention has been paid for power curve modelling that relates the wind turbine design information.This paper presents a novel method that employs artificial neural network to learn the underlying relationships between 6 turbine design parameters and its power curve.A total of 198 existing pitch-controlled and active stall-controlled horizontal-axis wind turbines have been used for model training and validation.The results showed that the method is reliable and reasonably accurate,with average R^(2)score of 0.9966.展开更多
基金the Ministry of Higher Education Malaysia,under the Fundamental Research Grant Scheme(FRGS Grant No.FRGS/1/2016/TK07/SEGI/02/1).
文摘Electricity demand is also known as load in electric power system.This article presents a Long-Term Load Forecasting(LTLF)approach for Malaysia.An Artificial Neural Network(ANN)of 5-layer Multi-Layered Perceptron(MLP)structure has been designed and tested for this purpose.Uncertainties of input variables and ANN model were introduced to obtain the prediction for years 2022 to 2030.Pearson correlation was used to examine the input variables for model construction.The analysis indicates that Primary Energy Supply(PES),population,Gross Domestic Product(GDP)and temperature are strongly correlated.The forecast results by the proposed method(henceforth referred to as UQ-SNN)were compared with the results obtained by a conventional Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average(SARIMA)model.The R^(2)scores for UQ-SNN and SARIMA are 0.9994 and 0.9787,respectively,indicating that UQ-SNN is more accurate in capturing the non-linearity and the underlying relationships between the input and output variables.The proposed method can be easily extended to include other input variables to increase the model complexity and is suitable for LTLF.With the available input data,UQ-SNN predicts Malaysia will consume 207.22 TWh of electricity,with standard deviation(SD)of 6.10 TWh by 2030.
基金The project is funded by the Ministry of Higher Education Malaysia,under the Fundamental Research Grant Scheme(FRGS Grant No.FRGS/1/2017/TK07/SEGI/02/1).
文摘Aircraft engine design is a complicated process,as it involves huge number of components.The design process begins with parametric cycle analysis.It is crucial to determine the optimum values of the cycle parameters that would give a robust design in the early phase of engine development,to shorten the design cycle for cost saving and man-hour reduction.To obtain a robust solution,optimisation program is often being executed more than once,especially in Reliability Based Design Optimisations(RBDO)with Monte-Carlo Simulation(MCS)scheme for complex systems which require thousands to millions of optimisation loops to be executed.This paper presents a fast heuristic technique to optimise the thermodynamic cycle of two-spool separated flow turbofan engines based on energy and probability of failure criteria based on Luus-Jaakola algorithm(LJ).A computer program called Turbo Jet Engine Optimiser v2.0(TJEO-2.0)has been developed to perform the optimisation calculation.The program is made up of inner and outer loops,where LJ is used in the outer loop to determine the design variables while parametric cycle analysis of the engine is done in the inner loop to determine the engine performance.Latin-Hypercube-Sampling(LHS)technique is used to sample the design and model variations for uncertainty analysis.The results show that optimisation without reliability criteria may lead to high probability of failure of more than 11%on average.The thrust obtained with uncertainty quantification was about 25%higher than the one without uncertainty quantification,at the expense of less than 3%of fuel consumption.The proposed algorithm can solve the turbofan RBDO problem within 3 min.
基金the Ministry of Higher Education Malaysia,under the Fundamental Research Grant Scheme(FRGS Grant No.FRGS/1/2016/TK07/SEGI/02/1).
文摘Accurate prediction of wind turbine power curve is essential for wind farm planning as it influences the expected power production.Existing methods require detailed wind turbine geometry for performance evaluation,which most of the time unattainable and impractical in early stage of wind farm planning.While significant amount of work has been done on fitting of wind turbine power curve using parametric and non-parametric models,little to no attention has been paid for power curve modelling that relates the wind turbine design information.This paper presents a novel method that employs artificial neural network to learn the underlying relationships between 6 turbine design parameters and its power curve.A total of 198 existing pitch-controlled and active stall-controlled horizontal-axis wind turbines have been used for model training and validation.The results showed that the method is reliable and reasonably accurate,with average R^(2)score of 0.9966.
