In 2022,four earthquakes with M_(S)≥6.0 including the Menyuan M_(S)6.9 and Luding M_(S)6.8 earthquakes occurred in the North-South Seismic Zone(NSSZ),which demonstrated high and strong seismicity.Pattern Informatics(...In 2022,four earthquakes with M_(S)≥6.0 including the Menyuan M_(S)6.9 and Luding M_(S)6.8 earthquakes occurred in the North-South Seismic Zone(NSSZ),which demonstrated high and strong seismicity.Pattern Informatics(PI)method,as an effective long and medium term earthquake forecasting method,has been applied to the strong earthquake forecasting in Chinese mainland and results have shown the positive performance.The earthquake catalog with magnitude above M_(S)3.0 since 1970 provided by China Earthquake Networks Center was employed in this study and the Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC)method was applied to test the forecasting efficiency of the PI method in each selected region related to the North-South Seismic Zone systematically.Based on this,we selected the area with the best ROC testing result and analyzed the evolution process of the PI hotspot map reflecting the small seismic activity pattern prior to the Menyuan M_(S)6.9 and Luding M_(S)6.8 earthquakes.A“forward”forecast for the area was carried out to assess seismic risk.The study shows the following.1)PI forecasting has higher forecasting efficiency in the selected study region where the difference of seismicity in any place of the region is smaller.2)In areas with smaller differences of seismicity,the activity pattern of small earthquakes prior to the Menyuan M_(S)6.9 and Luding M_(S)6.8 earthquakes can be obtained by analyzing the spatio-temporal evolution process of the PI hotspot map.3)The hotspot evolution in and around the southern Tazang fault in the study area is similar to that prior to the strong earthquakes,which suggests the possible seismic hazard in the future.This study could provide some ideas to the seismic hazard assessment in other regions with high seismicity,such as Japan,Californi,Turkey,and Indonesia.展开更多
‘Dragon king’theory of extreme events has been systematically proposed and discussed since 2012,the last‘year of dragon’in the Chinese lunar calendar(Sornette and Ouillon,2012;Yukalov and Sornette,2012;Sachs et al...‘Dragon king’theory of extreme events has been systematically proposed and discussed since 2012,the last‘year of dragon’in the Chinese lunar calendar(Sornette and Ouillon,2012;Yukalov and Sornette,2012;Sachs et al.,2012),and has been under discussion till present(e.g.,Eliazar,2017;Lin et al.,2018;Glette-Iversen and Aven,2021;Premraj et al.,2021;Lei et al.,2023).In this theoretical framework based on the physics of complexity,a‘dragon king’is defined as an event so extreme that it lies outside a power-law distribution.What is of special interest is that,according to its theory,a‘dragon king’event should pose significant predictability(Sornette and Ouillon,2012).As the next‘year of dragon’approaches soon,it is worth revisiting this concept.展开更多
After the September 5,2022(Beijing time).Luding Ms6.8 earthquake(29.59°N.102.08°E.depth 16 km.according to the initial determination by the China Earthquake Networks Center(CENC)).field investigation was car...After the September 5,2022(Beijing time).Luding Ms6.8 earthquake(29.59°N.102.08°E.depth 16 km.according to the initial determination by the China Earthquake Networks Center(CENC)).field investigation was carried out by the China Earthquake Administration(CEA).which associated the earthquake to the Moxi segment on the south part of the Xianshuihe fault system.This segment,with horizontal slip rate 5-10 mm/a.locates in the convergent part among the Xianshuihe fault.展开更多
The central-southern part of the eastern border of the Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic block provides the research strategy of ‘trade space for time' with an interesting fault system, where the segments have similar focal...The central-southern part of the eastern border of the Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic block provides the research strategy of ‘trade space for time' with an interesting fault system, where the segments have similar focal mechanisms and cover almost continuous spectra of elapse rates. We experiment to study the seismological characteristics of different segments with different elapse rates. We employed the de-clustered earthquake catalog for the calculation of b values for each segment. The analysis revealed that different segments have similar b values,which implies that, although different segments have different periods of earthquake recurrence, the 'natural time' for the whole fault system elapses with a homogeneous pace. We extended the earthquake potential score(EPS)for nowcasting earthquakes to a quasi-EPS(q EPS). It is found that q EPS increases with the increase of elapse rates,albeit for those fault segments whose elapse rates have exceeded 1, q EPS may better reflect the seismic hazard.展开更多
In the research of projection pursuit for seismic comprehensive forecast, the algorithm of projection pursuit regression （PPR） is one of most applicable methods. But generally, the algorithm structure of the PPR is ...In the research of projection pursuit for seismic comprehensive forecast, the algorithm of projection pursuit regression （PPR） is one of most applicable methods. But generally, the algorithm structure of the PPR is very complicated. By partial smooth regressions for many times, it has a large amount of calculation and complicated extrapolation, so it is easily trapped in partial solution. On the basis of the algorithm features of the PPR method, some solutions are given as below to aim at some shortcomings in the PPR calculation： to optimize project direction by using particle swarm optimization instead of Gauss-Newton algorithm, to simplify the optimal process with fitting ridge function by using Hermitian polynomial instead of piecewise linear regression. The overall optimal ridge function can be obtained without grouping the parameter optimization. The modeling capability and calculating accuracy of projection pursuit method are tested by means of numerical emulation technique on the basis of particle swarm optimization and Hermitian polynomial, and then applied to the seismic comprehensive forecasting models of poly-dimensional seismic time series and general disorder seismic samples. The calculation and analysis show that the projection pursuit model in this paper is characterized by simplicity, celerity and effectiveness. And this model is approved to have satisfactory effects in the real seismic comprehensive forecasting, which can be regarded as a comprehensive analysis method in seismic comprehensive forecast.展开更多
The diurnal variation of the geomagnetic vertical component is exhibited mainly by changes of phase and amplitude before strong earthquakes. Based on data recorded by the network of geomagnetic observatories in China ...The diurnal variation of the geomagnetic vertical component is exhibited mainly by changes of phase and amplitude before strong earthquakes. Based on data recorded by the network of geomagnetic observatories in China for many years, the anomalous features of the appearance time of the minima of diurnal variations （i.e, low-point time） of the geo- magnetic vertical components and the variation of their spatial distribution （i.e, phenomena of low-point displacement） have been studied before the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake. The strong aftershocks after two months＇ quiescence of M6 aftershocks of the Ms8.0 event were forecasted based on these studies. There are good correlativities between these geomagnetic anoma- lies and occurrences of earthquakes. It has been found that most earthquakes occur near the boundary line of sudden changes of the low-point time and generally within four days before or after the 27th or 41st day counting from the day of the appearance of the anomaly. In addition, the imminent anomalies in diurnal-variation amplitudes near the epicentral areas have also been studied before the Wenchuan earthquake.展开更多
Objective:To survey and analyze the radiation doses of pediatric CT in some provinces(autonomous region)or municipalities in China,and compare them with the data released by the relevant domestic and international org...Objective:To survey and analyze the radiation doses of pediatric CT in some provinces(autonomous region)or municipalities in China,and compare them with the data released by the relevant domestic and international organizations,so as to identify the current status of Chinese pediatric CT radiation doses.Methods:Radiation doses of pediatric CT were collected during August and December 2016 from 40 hospitals(including 18 children’s hospitals)in 15 provinces,municipalities or autonomous regions across the China.The procedures of head CT,chest CT and abdomen CT were selected in these hospitals,and 10 patients in each group of 0-<1 y,1-<5 y,5-<10 y and 10-<15 y were collected at random for every procedure.Weighted CT dose index(CTDI_(w)),volumetric CT dose index(CTDI_(vol))and dose length product(DLP)were used as survey quantities.An independent sample Kruskal-Wallis rank sum test was performed for CTDI and DLP for each procedure for different age groups,and pairwise comparisons were performed for intra-group data.The same statistical method was also conducted for CTDI and DLP of the same procedure and age group in different provinces or municipalities.Results:The 75th percentiles of the distribution of CTDI and DLP in different age groups of 0-<1 y,1-<5 y,5-<10 y and 10-<15 y were as follows:36.5,43.4,49.1,51.1 mGy and 488,635,723,852 mGy.cm for head,6.1,6.4,6.8,9.6 mGy and 108,136,187,293 mGy.cm for chest,10.5,10.3,11.4,13.0 mGy and 251,284,353,523 mGy.cm for abdomen.The 50th percentiles of the distribution of the radiation doses for the same procedure varied with the ages(head,CTDI_(w):H=155.66,DLP:H=212.35,P<0.05;chest,CTDI_(vol):H=85.43,DLP:H=197.36,P<0.05;abdomen:H=62.29,DLP:H=173.22,P<0.05)and with lower dose at lower age.Radiation doses were close for head between 5-<10 y and 10-<15 y groups,for chest between 1-<5 y and 5-<10 y groups and between 5-<10 y and 10-<15 y groups,and for abdomen between 0-<1 y and 1-<5 y groups,with no statistically significant difference(the adjusted P>0.05).The dose levels of different provinces or municipalities in the same procedure and age group were not consistent,and the differences were statistically significant(P<0.05).The data were different from the domestic and international values of DRL.The 75th percentiles of CTDI_(w) and DLP values of head CT were close to the data from Japan and UK(United Kingdom),higher than the data from Korea and EC(European Commission).The 75th percentiles of CTDI values of all age groups were lower than the values of Japan and UK,and larger than that of Korea and EC in chest CT and abdomen CT.Conclusions:The 75th percentile values of the distribution of the pediatric CT doses obtained from the survey were inconsistent with those released by the relevant national and international organizations.It is necessary to update the national DRLs for pediatric CT on the basis of the actual survey data.展开更多
The theory of the loading/unloading response ratio (LURR) was applied to the Jiashi earthquake sequence which occurred at the beginning of 1997 in Xinjiang, and found that, before the earthquakes with relatively high ...The theory of the loading/unloading response ratio (LURR) was applied to the Jiashi earthquake sequence which occurred at the beginning of 1997 in Xinjiang, and found that, before the earthquakes with relatively high magnitudes in the sequence, the ratio showed anomalies of high values. That is to say, the LURR theory can be applied to the short_term earthquake prediction in some cases, especially in the early period after a strong earthquake, such as the forecasts for some strong earthquakes in the Jiashi sequence.展开更多
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China Study on the Theory and Methods of Deterministic-Probabilistic(No.U2039207)the National Key Research and Development Program of China‘CSEP China in the Context of China Seismic Experimental Site’(No.2018YFE0109700).
文摘In 2022,four earthquakes with M_(S)≥6.0 including the Menyuan M_(S)6.9 and Luding M_(S)6.8 earthquakes occurred in the North-South Seismic Zone(NSSZ),which demonstrated high and strong seismicity.Pattern Informatics(PI)method,as an effective long and medium term earthquake forecasting method,has been applied to the strong earthquake forecasting in Chinese mainland and results have shown the positive performance.The earthquake catalog with magnitude above M_(S)3.0 since 1970 provided by China Earthquake Networks Center was employed in this study and the Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC)method was applied to test the forecasting efficiency of the PI method in each selected region related to the North-South Seismic Zone systematically.Based on this,we selected the area with the best ROC testing result and analyzed the evolution process of the PI hotspot map reflecting the small seismic activity pattern prior to the Menyuan M_(S)6.9 and Luding M_(S)6.8 earthquakes.A“forward”forecast for the area was carried out to assess seismic risk.The study shows the following.1)PI forecasting has higher forecasting efficiency in the selected study region where the difference of seismicity in any place of the region is smaller.2)In areas with smaller differences of seismicity,the activity pattern of small earthquakes prior to the Menyuan M_(S)6.9 and Luding M_(S)6.8 earthquakes can be obtained by analyzing the spatio-temporal evolution process of the PI hotspot map.3)The hotspot evolution in and around the southern Tazang fault in the study area is similar to that prior to the strong earthquakes,which suggests the possible seismic hazard in the future.This study could provide some ideas to the seismic hazard assessment in other regions with high seismicity,such as Japan,Californi,Turkey,and Indonesia.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC,contract number U2039207 and 41704093).
文摘‘Dragon king’theory of extreme events has been systematically proposed and discussed since 2012,the last‘year of dragon’in the Chinese lunar calendar(Sornette and Ouillon,2012;Yukalov and Sornette,2012;Sachs et al.,2012),and has been under discussion till present(e.g.,Eliazar,2017;Lin et al.,2018;Glette-Iversen and Aven,2021;Premraj et al.,2021;Lei et al.,2023).In this theoretical framework based on the physics of complexity,a‘dragon king’is defined as an event so extreme that it lies outside a power-law distribution.What is of special interest is that,according to its theory,a‘dragon king’event should pose significant predictability(Sornette and Ouillon,2012).As the next‘year of dragon’approaches soon,it is worth revisiting this concept.
基金This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.U2039207 and 42004038)National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2018YFE0109700)the Special Fund of the Institute of Earthquake Forecasting,China Earthquake Administration(No.CEAIEF2022030206).
文摘After the September 5,2022(Beijing time).Luding Ms6.8 earthquake(29.59°N.102.08°E.depth 16 km.according to the initial determination by the China Earthquake Networks Center(CENC)).field investigation was carried out by the China Earthquake Administration(CEA).which associated the earthquake to the Moxi segment on the south part of the Xianshuihe fault system.This segment,with horizontal slip rate 5-10 mm/a.locates in the convergent part among the Xianshuihe fault.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC, grant number U2039207)。
文摘The central-southern part of the eastern border of the Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic block provides the research strategy of ‘trade space for time' with an interesting fault system, where the segments have similar focal mechanisms and cover almost continuous spectra of elapse rates. We experiment to study the seismological characteristics of different segments with different elapse rates. We employed the de-clustered earthquake catalog for the calculation of b values for each segment. The analysis revealed that different segments have similar b values,which implies that, although different segments have different periods of earthquake recurrence, the 'natural time' for the whole fault system elapses with a homogeneous pace. We extended the earthquake potential score(EPS)for nowcasting earthquakes to a quasi-EPS(q EPS). It is found that q EPS increases with the increase of elapse rates,albeit for those fault segments whose elapse rates have exceeded 1, q EPS may better reflect the seismic hazard.
文摘In the research of projection pursuit for seismic comprehensive forecast, the algorithm of projection pursuit regression （PPR） is one of most applicable methods. But generally, the algorithm structure of the PPR is very complicated. By partial smooth regressions for many times, it has a large amount of calculation and complicated extrapolation, so it is easily trapped in partial solution. On the basis of the algorithm features of the PPR method, some solutions are given as below to aim at some shortcomings in the PPR calculation： to optimize project direction by using particle swarm optimization instead of Gauss-Newton algorithm, to simplify the optimal process with fitting ridge function by using Hermitian polynomial instead of piecewise linear regression. The overall optimal ridge function can be obtained without grouping the parameter optimization. The modeling capability and calculating accuracy of projection pursuit method are tested by means of numerical emulation technique on the basis of particle swarm optimization and Hermitian polynomial, and then applied to the seismic comprehensive forecasting models of poly-dimensional seismic time series and general disorder seismic samples. The calculation and analysis show that the projection pursuit model in this paper is characterized by simplicity, celerity and effectiveness. And this model is approved to have satisfactory effects in the real seismic comprehensive forecasting, which can be regarded as a comprehensive analysis method in seismic comprehensive forecast.
基金supported by National Key Technologies Research&Development Program of China (Grant No. 2008BAC35B00).
文摘The diurnal variation of the geomagnetic vertical component is exhibited mainly by changes of phase and amplitude before strong earthquakes. Based on data recorded by the network of geomagnetic observatories in China for many years, the anomalous features of the appearance time of the minima of diurnal variations （i.e, low-point time） of the geo- magnetic vertical components and the variation of their spatial distribution （i.e, phenomena of low-point displacement） have been studied before the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake. The strong aftershocks after two months＇ quiescence of M6 aftershocks of the Ms8.0 event were forecasted based on these studies. There are good correlativities between these geomagnetic anoma- lies and occurrences of earthquakes. It has been found that most earthquakes occur near the boundary line of sudden changes of the low-point time and generally within four days before or after the 27th or 41st day counting from the day of the appearance of the anomaly. In addition, the imminent anomalies in diurnal-variation amplitudes near the epicentral areas have also been studied before the Wenchuan earthquake.
文摘Objective:To survey and analyze the radiation doses of pediatric CT in some provinces(autonomous region)or municipalities in China,and compare them with the data released by the relevant domestic and international organizations,so as to identify the current status of Chinese pediatric CT radiation doses.Methods:Radiation doses of pediatric CT were collected during August and December 2016 from 40 hospitals(including 18 children’s hospitals)in 15 provinces,municipalities or autonomous regions across the China.The procedures of head CT,chest CT and abdomen CT were selected in these hospitals,and 10 patients in each group of 0-<1 y,1-<5 y,5-<10 y and 10-<15 y were collected at random for every procedure.Weighted CT dose index(CTDI_(w)),volumetric CT dose index(CTDI_(vol))and dose length product(DLP)were used as survey quantities.An independent sample Kruskal-Wallis rank sum test was performed for CTDI and DLP for each procedure for different age groups,and pairwise comparisons were performed for intra-group data.The same statistical method was also conducted for CTDI and DLP of the same procedure and age group in different provinces or municipalities.Results:The 75th percentiles of the distribution of CTDI and DLP in different age groups of 0-<1 y,1-<5 y,5-<10 y and 10-<15 y were as follows:36.5,43.4,49.1,51.1 mGy and 488,635,723,852 mGy.cm for head,6.1,6.4,6.8,9.6 mGy and 108,136,187,293 mGy.cm for chest,10.5,10.3,11.4,13.0 mGy and 251,284,353,523 mGy.cm for abdomen.The 50th percentiles of the distribution of the radiation doses for the same procedure varied with the ages(head,CTDI_(w):H=155.66,DLP:H=212.35,P<0.05;chest,CTDI_(vol):H=85.43,DLP:H=197.36,P<0.05;abdomen:H=62.29,DLP:H=173.22,P<0.05)and with lower dose at lower age.Radiation doses were close for head between 5-<10 y and 10-<15 y groups,for chest between 1-<5 y and 5-<10 y groups and between 5-<10 y and 10-<15 y groups,and for abdomen between 0-<1 y and 1-<5 y groups,with no statistically significant difference(the adjusted P>0.05).The dose levels of different provinces or municipalities in the same procedure and age group were not consistent,and the differences were statistically significant(P<0.05).The data were different from the domestic and international values of DRL.The 75th percentiles of CTDI_(w) and DLP values of head CT were close to the data from Japan and UK(United Kingdom),higher than the data from Korea and EC(European Commission).The 75th percentiles of CTDI values of all age groups were lower than the values of Japan and UK,and larger than that of Korea and EC in chest CT and abdomen CT.Conclusions:The 75th percentile values of the distribution of the pediatric CT doses obtained from the survey were inconsistent with those released by the relevant national and international organizations.It is necessary to update the national DRLs for pediatric CT on the basis of the actual survey data.
文摘The theory of the loading/unloading response ratio (LURR) was applied to the Jiashi earthquake sequence which occurred at the beginning of 1997 in Xinjiang, and found that, before the earthquakes with relatively high magnitudes in the sequence, the ratio showed anomalies of high values. That is to say, the LURR theory can be applied to the short_term earthquake prediction in some cases, especially in the early period after a strong earthquake, such as the forecasts for some strong earthquakes in the Jiashi sequence.
