Climate change resulted in changes in crop growth duration and planting structure, northward movement of planting region, and more severe plant diseases and insect pests in Northwest China. It caused earlier seeding f...Climate change resulted in changes in crop growth duration and planting structure, northward movement of planting region, and more severe plant diseases and insect pests in Northwest China. It caused earlier seeding for spring crop, later seeding for autumn crop, accelerated crop growth, and reduced mortality for winter crop. To adapt to climate change, measures such as optimization of agricultural arrangement, adjustment of planting structure, expansion of thermophilic crops, and development of water-saving grassland and livestock were enhanced. agriculture have been taken. Damaging The deterioration trend of grassland was consequences of imbalance between intensified; both grass quantity and quality declined. With overgrazing, proportions of inferior grass, weeds and poisonous weeds increased in plateau pastoral areas. Returning farmland to grazing, returning grazing to grassland, fence enclosure and artificial grassland construction have been implemented to restore the grassland vegetation, to increase the grassland coverage, to reasonably control the livestock carrying capacity, to prevent overgrazing, to keep balance between grassland and livestock, and to develop the ecological animal husbandry. In Northwest China, because the amount of regional water resources had an overall decreasing trend, there was a continuous expansion in the regional land desertification, and soil erosion was very serious. A series of measures, such as development of artificial precipitation （snow）, water resources control, regional water diversion, water storage project and so on, were used effectively to respond to water deficit. It had played a certain role in controlling soil erosion by natural forest protection and returning farmland to forest and grassland. In the early 21st century, noticeable achievements had been made in prevention and control of desertification in Northwest China. The regional ecological environment has been improved obviously, and the desertification trend has shown sign of under control.展开更多
In this study, observational data from 141 meteorological stations in Northwest China, including temperature, precipitation, dust storm, gale days and wind speed, were analyzed statistically to gain insight of the fea...In this study, observational data from 141 meteorological stations in Northwest China, including temperature, precipitation, dust storm, gale days and wind speed, were analyzed statistically to gain insight of the features of basic climate index and extreme climate events. The results showed that the annual mean temperature and seasonal mean temperature rose significantly, and the rising rate of the annual mean temperature is 0.27℃ per decade; the extreme high temperature days have increased; the interdecadal change of annual precipitation is marked, and the precipitation in winter and summer increased slightly, while decreased slightly in spring and autumn. The annual precipitation increased in the area west of the Yellow River, whereas decreased in the area east of the river. The drought had an increasing trend. There were 17 droughts during 1961-2010, and 10 droughts from 1991 to 2010. The number of droughts in spring and autumn increased, while decreased in summer.展开更多
PM_(2.5)对大气环境和人类健康危害极大,及时准确地掌握高时空分辨率的PM_(2.5)浓度对空气污染防治起着重要作用.基于粤港澳大湾区2015~2020年多角度大气校正算法(MAIAC)1 km AOD产品、ERA5气象资料和站点污染物浓度(CO、O_(3)、NO_(2)...PM_(2.5)对大气环境和人类健康危害极大,及时准确地掌握高时空分辨率的PM_(2.5)浓度对空气污染防治起着重要作用.基于粤港澳大湾区2015~2020年多角度大气校正算法(MAIAC)1 km AOD产品、ERA5气象资料和站点污染物浓度(CO、O_(3)、NO_(2)、SO_(2)、PM10和PM_(2.5)),分别建立了估算PM_(2.5)浓度的时空地理加权模型(GTWR)、BP神经网络模型(BPNN)、支持向量机回归模型(SVR)和随机森林模型(RF).结果表明,RF模型的估算能力优于BPNN、SVR和GTWR模型,BPNN、SVR、GTWR和RF模型的相关系数依次为0.922、0.920、0.934和0.981,均方根误差(RMSE)分别为7.192、7.101、6.385和3.670μg·m^(-3),平均绝对误差(MAE)分别为5.482、5.450、4.849和2.323μg·m^(-3);RF模型在季节PM_(2.5)的预测中以冬季效果最佳、夏季次之、春季和秋季再次,预测值与实测值的相关系数在0.976以上;RF模型可用于大湾区PM_(2.5)浓度的预测分析研究.在时间上,大湾区各市2021年逐日ρ(PM_(2.5))呈“先减后增”的变化趋势,最高值在65.550~112.780μg·m^(-3),最低值介于5.000~7.899μg·m^(-3);月均浓度变化呈“U”型分布,1月开始降低至6月达到谷值后逐渐升高;季节上表现为冬季浓度最高、夏季最低、春秋季节过渡的特点;大湾区年均ρ(PM_(2.5))为28.868μg·m^(-3),低于年均二级浓度限值.空间上,2021年PM_(2.5)呈“西北-东南”递减的特征,高污染区域聚集在大湾区的中部,以佛山为代表;低浓度区主要分布在惠州东部、港澳和珠海等沿海地区;不同季节PM_(2.5)浓度在空间分布上也表现出异质性和区域性.RF模型估算了高精度PM_(2.5)浓度,为大湾区PM_(2.5)污染相关的健康风险评估提供了科学依据.展开更多
基金supported by the Special Climate Change Research Program of China Meteorological Administration(No.CCSF2010-5)
文摘Climate change resulted in changes in crop growth duration and planting structure, northward movement of planting region, and more severe plant diseases and insect pests in Northwest China. It caused earlier seeding for spring crop, later seeding for autumn crop, accelerated crop growth, and reduced mortality for winter crop. To adapt to climate change, measures such as optimization of agricultural arrangement, adjustment of planting structure, expansion of thermophilic crops, and development of water-saving grassland and livestock were enhanced. agriculture have been taken. Damaging The deterioration trend of grassland was consequences of imbalance between intensified; both grass quantity and quality declined. With overgrazing, proportions of inferior grass, weeds and poisonous weeds increased in plateau pastoral areas. Returning farmland to grazing, returning grazing to grassland, fence enclosure and artificial grassland construction have been implemented to restore the grassland vegetation, to increase the grassland coverage, to reasonably control the livestock carrying capacity, to prevent overgrazing, to keep balance between grassland and livestock, and to develop the ecological animal husbandry. In Northwest China, because the amount of regional water resources had an overall decreasing trend, there was a continuous expansion in the regional land desertification, and soil erosion was very serious. A series of measures, such as development of artificial precipitation （snow）, water resources control, regional water diversion, water storage project and so on, were used effectively to respond to water deficit. It had played a certain role in controlling soil erosion by natural forest protection and returning farmland to forest and grassland. In the early 21st century, noticeable achievements had been made in prevention and control of desertification in Northwest China. The regional ecological environment has been improved obviously, and the desertification trend has shown sign of under control.
基金supported by the Special Project on Climate Change in China Meteorological Administation(No. CCSF2010-5)
文摘In this study, observational data from 141 meteorological stations in Northwest China, including temperature, precipitation, dust storm, gale days and wind speed, were analyzed statistically to gain insight of the features of basic climate index and extreme climate events. The results showed that the annual mean temperature and seasonal mean temperature rose significantly, and the rising rate of the annual mean temperature is 0.27℃ per decade; the extreme high temperature days have increased; the interdecadal change of annual precipitation is marked, and the precipitation in winter and summer increased slightly, while decreased slightly in spring and autumn. The annual precipitation increased in the area west of the Yellow River, whereas decreased in the area east of the river. The drought had an increasing trend. There were 17 droughts during 1961-2010, and 10 droughts from 1991 to 2010. The number of droughts in spring and autumn increased, while decreased in summer.
文摘PM_(2.5)对大气环境和人类健康危害极大,及时准确地掌握高时空分辨率的PM_(2.5)浓度对空气污染防治起着重要作用.基于粤港澳大湾区2015~2020年多角度大气校正算法(MAIAC)1 km AOD产品、ERA5气象资料和站点污染物浓度(CO、O_(3)、NO_(2)、SO_(2)、PM10和PM_(2.5)),分别建立了估算PM_(2.5)浓度的时空地理加权模型(GTWR)、BP神经网络模型(BPNN)、支持向量机回归模型(SVR)和随机森林模型(RF).结果表明,RF模型的估算能力优于BPNN、SVR和GTWR模型,BPNN、SVR、GTWR和RF模型的相关系数依次为0.922、0.920、0.934和0.981,均方根误差(RMSE)分别为7.192、7.101、6.385和3.670μg·m^(-3),平均绝对误差(MAE)分别为5.482、5.450、4.849和2.323μg·m^(-3);RF模型在季节PM_(2.5)的预测中以冬季效果最佳、夏季次之、春季和秋季再次,预测值与实测值的相关系数在0.976以上;RF模型可用于大湾区PM_(2.5)浓度的预测分析研究.在时间上,大湾区各市2021年逐日ρ(PM_(2.5))呈“先减后增”的变化趋势,最高值在65.550~112.780μg·m^(-3),最低值介于5.000~7.899μg·m^(-3);月均浓度变化呈“U”型分布,1月开始降低至6月达到谷值后逐渐升高;季节上表现为冬季浓度最高、夏季最低、春秋季节过渡的特点;大湾区年均ρ(PM_(2.5))为28.868μg·m^(-3),低于年均二级浓度限值.空间上,2021年PM_(2.5)呈“西北-东南”递减的特征,高污染区域聚集在大湾区的中部,以佛山为代表;低浓度区主要分布在惠州东部、港澳和珠海等沿海地区;不同季节PM_(2.5)浓度在空间分布上也表现出异质性和区域性.RF模型估算了高精度PM_(2.5)浓度,为大湾区PM_(2.5)污染相关的健康风险评估提供了科学依据.
