Due to the complexity and variability of carbonate formation leakage zones, lost circulation prediction and control is one of the major challenges of carbonate drilling. It raises well-control risks and production exp...Due to the complexity and variability of carbonate formation leakage zones, lost circulation prediction and control is one of the major challenges of carbonate drilling. It raises well-control risks and production expenses. This research utilizes the H oilfield as an example, employs seismic features to analyze mud loss prediction, and produces a complete set of pre-drilling mud loss prediction solutions. Firstly, 16seismic attributes are calculated based on the post-stack seismic data, and the mud loss rate per unit footage is specified. The sample set is constructed by extracting each attribute from the seismic trace surrounding 15 typical wells, with a ratio of 8:2 between the training set and the test set. With the calibration results for mud loss rate per unit footage, the nonlinear mapping relationship between seismic attributes and mud loss rate per unit size is established using the mixed density network model.Then, the influence of the number of sub-Gausses and the uncertainty coefficient on the model's prediction is evaluated. Finally, the model is used in conjunction with downhole drilling conditions to assess the risk of mud loss in various layers and along the wellbore trajectory. The study demonstrates that the mean relative errors of the model for training data and test data are 6.9% and 7.5%, respectively, and that R2is 90% and 88%, respectively, for training data and test data. The accuracy and efficacy of mud loss prediction may be greatly enhanced by combining 16 seismic attributes with the mud loss rate per unit footage and applying machine learning methods. The mud loss prediction model based on the MDN model can not only predict the mud loss rate but also objectively evaluate the prediction based on the quality of the data and the model.展开更多
Zabuye Salt Lake(ZSL)in Xizang is the only saline lake in the world with natural crystalline lithium carbonate.As it is an important lithium production base in China,any changes of this lake are concerning.Global clim...Zabuye Salt Lake(ZSL)in Xizang is the only saline lake in the world with natural crystalline lithium carbonate.As it is an important lithium production base in China,any changes of this lake are concerning.Global climate change(CC)has affected the hydrological conditions of glaciers,lakes,and ecosystems in the Tibetan Plateau(TP).With the aim of monitoring dynamic hydrological changes in ZSL and Lunggar Glaciers(LG)to identify factors governing lake changes,and to estimate the potential damage to grasslands and salt pans,Landsat remote sensing(RS)and meteorological data were used to do a series of experiments and analysis.Firstly,according to the spectral characteristics(SC),salt lake,glaciers,grasslands,and salt pans around the salt lake were extracted by band calculation(BC).Secondly,basin and water areas of the expanded lake were estimated using a shuttle radar topography mission(SRTM)digital elevation model(DEM).Thirdly,comprehensive analyses of lake and glacier area changes,and regional meteorological factors(annual average temperature,annual precipitation,and evaporation)were performed,and the results show that ZSL expanded at a rate of 5.28 km^(2)/a,it is likely to continue expanding.Expansion was closely related to the large-scale melting of a glacier caused by rising temperatures.Continued lake expansion(LE)will exert different effects on surrounding grasslands and salt pans,7.84 km^(2)of grassland and 2.7 km^(2)of salt pan will be submerged with every meter of water increase in the lake.Similar prediction methods was used to monitor other lakes on the TP.Mami Co,Selin Co,and Chaerhan salt lakes all expanded at different rates,and may potentially cause different levels of potential harm to surrounding grasslands and roads.Our study contributes to salt lake research and demonstrates the superiority of RS technology for monitoring saline lakes.展开更多
基金the financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52104013)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2022T150724)。
文摘Due to the complexity and variability of carbonate formation leakage zones, lost circulation prediction and control is one of the major challenges of carbonate drilling. It raises well-control risks and production expenses. This research utilizes the H oilfield as an example, employs seismic features to analyze mud loss prediction, and produces a complete set of pre-drilling mud loss prediction solutions. Firstly, 16seismic attributes are calculated based on the post-stack seismic data, and the mud loss rate per unit footage is specified. The sample set is constructed by extracting each attribute from the seismic trace surrounding 15 typical wells, with a ratio of 8:2 between the training set and the test set. With the calibration results for mud loss rate per unit footage, the nonlinear mapping relationship between seismic attributes and mud loss rate per unit size is established using the mixed density network model.Then, the influence of the number of sub-Gausses and the uncertainty coefficient on the model's prediction is evaluated. Finally, the model is used in conjunction with downhole drilling conditions to assess the risk of mud loss in various layers and along the wellbore trajectory. The study demonstrates that the mean relative errors of the model for training data and test data are 6.9% and 7.5%, respectively, and that R2is 90% and 88%, respectively, for training data and test data. The accuracy and efficacy of mud loss prediction may be greatly enhanced by combining 16 seismic attributes with the mud loss rate per unit footage and applying machine learning methods. The mud loss prediction model based on the MDN model can not only predict the mud loss rate but also objectively evaluate the prediction based on the quality of the data and the model.
基金Supported by the Academician Workstation Projects of the Institute of Mineral Resources,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences(Nos.HE 2205,HE 2206,KK 2012)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42172332)+1 种基金the China Geological Survey Project(No.DD 20221684)the Basic Research Projects of the Institute of Mineral Resources,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences(No.KK 2102)。
文摘Zabuye Salt Lake(ZSL)in Xizang is the only saline lake in the world with natural crystalline lithium carbonate.As it is an important lithium production base in China,any changes of this lake are concerning.Global climate change(CC)has affected the hydrological conditions of glaciers,lakes,and ecosystems in the Tibetan Plateau(TP).With the aim of monitoring dynamic hydrological changes in ZSL and Lunggar Glaciers(LG)to identify factors governing lake changes,and to estimate the potential damage to grasslands and salt pans,Landsat remote sensing(RS)and meteorological data were used to do a series of experiments and analysis.Firstly,according to the spectral characteristics(SC),salt lake,glaciers,grasslands,and salt pans around the salt lake were extracted by band calculation(BC).Secondly,basin and water areas of the expanded lake were estimated using a shuttle radar topography mission(SRTM)digital elevation model(DEM).Thirdly,comprehensive analyses of lake and glacier area changes,and regional meteorological factors(annual average temperature,annual precipitation,and evaporation)were performed,and the results show that ZSL expanded at a rate of 5.28 km^(2)/a,it is likely to continue expanding.Expansion was closely related to the large-scale melting of a glacier caused by rising temperatures.Continued lake expansion(LE)will exert different effects on surrounding grasslands and salt pans,7.84 km^(2)of grassland and 2.7 km^(2)of salt pan will be submerged with every meter of water increase in the lake.Similar prediction methods was used to monitor other lakes on the TP.Mami Co,Selin Co,and Chaerhan salt lakes all expanded at different rates,and may potentially cause different levels of potential harm to surrounding grasslands and roads.Our study contributes to salt lake research and demonstrates the superiority of RS technology for monitoring saline lakes.
