Deterministic compartment models(CMs)and stochastic models,including stochastic CMs and agent-based models,are widely utilized in epidemic modeling.However,the relationship between CMs and their corresponding stochast...Deterministic compartment models(CMs)and stochastic models,including stochastic CMs and agent-based models,are widely utilized in epidemic modeling.However,the relationship between CMs and their corresponding stochastic models is not well understood.The present study aimed to address this gap by conducting a comparative study using the susceptible,exposed,infectious,and recovered(SEIR)model and its extended CMs from the coronavirus disease 2019 modeling literature.We demonstrated the equivalence of the numerical solution of CMs using the Euler scheme and their stochastic counterparts through theoretical analysis and simulations.Based on this equivalence,we proposed an efficient model calibration method that could replicate the exact solution of CMs in the corresponding stochastic models through parameter adjustment.The advancement in calibration techniques enhanced the accuracy of stochastic modeling in capturing the dynamics of epidemics.However,it should be noted that discrete-time stochastic models cannot perfectly reproduce the exact solution of continuous-time CMs.Additionally,we proposed a new stochastic compartment and agent mixed model as an alternative to agent-based models for large-scale population simulations with a limited number of agents.This model offered a balance between computational efficiency and accuracy.The results of this research contributed to the comparison and unification of deterministic CMs and stochastic models in epidemic modeling.Furthermore,the results had implications for the development of hybrid models that integrated the strengths of both frameworks.Overall,the present study has provided valuable epidemic modeling techniques and their practical applications for understanding and controlling the spread of infectious diseases.展开更多
High HIV prevalence and incidence burdens have been reported in men who have sex with men(MSM)in Chongqing,China.We aimed to estimate the prevalence of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections(STIs),to appraise t...High HIV prevalence and incidence burdens have been reported in men who have sex with men(MSM)in Chongqing,China.We aimed to estimate the prevalence of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections(STIs),to appraise the knowledge and risk behaviors related to HIV/AIDS among MSM,and to analyze the possible causes of deviation between behavior and knowledge to make better strategies.We recruited 617 MSM from February to July in 2008 by using a respondent-driven sampling(RDS) method in Chongqing,China.Through the collection of questionnaire-based data and biological testing results from all objects,we launched a crosssectional survey.STATA/SE was used for data analysis by frequency,ANOVA,rank sum test and logistic regression models.MSM with syphilis(OR=4.16,95%CI:2.35-7.33,P<0.0001) were more likely to be HIV infected.Being a company employee(OR=3.64,95%CI:1.22-10.08,P<0.0001) and having bought male for sex(OR=3.52,95%CI:1.10-11.32,P<0.034) were associated with a higher probability of syphilis.MSM with younger age,higher education and greater monthly income had a higher mean knowledge score.MSM who had HIV testing had a higher mean knowledge score than those who never had.Students,venues for finding sex partners by Internet and homosexuals in MSM had a higher mean knowledge score compared to other occupations,venues for finding sex partners and sexual orientation.There is an urgent need for delivery of barrier and biomedical interventions with coordinated behavioral and structural strategies to improve the effect of HIV interventions among MSM.展开更多
This paper first applies the sequential cluster method to set up the classification standard of infectious disease incidence state based on the fact that there are many uncertainty characteristics in the incidence cou...This paper first applies the sequential cluster method to set up the classification standard of infectious disease incidence state based on the fact that there are many uncertainty characteristics in the incidence course.Then the paper presents a weighted Markov chain,a method which is used to predict the future incidence state.This method assumes the standardized self-coefficients as weights based on the special characteristics of infectious disease incidence being a dependent stochastic variable.It also analyzes the characteristics of infectious diseases incidence via the Markov chain Monte Carlo method to make the long-term benefit of decision optimal.Our method is successfully validated using existing incidents data of infectious diseases in Jiangsu Province.In summation,this paper proposes ways to improve the accuracy of the weighted Markov chain,specifically in the field of infection epidemiology.展开更多
Several studies investigated associations of IFN-γ rs2430561 T/A,IL28 B rs12979860 C/T and ERα rs2077647 T/C gene polymorphisms with outcomes of hepatitis B virus(HBV) infection,but the results were controversial.Th...Several studies investigated associations of IFN-γ rs2430561 T/A,IL28 B rs12979860 C/T and ERα rs2077647 T/C gene polymorphisms with outcomes of hepatitis B virus(HBV) infection,but the results were controversial.Therefore,we performed a meta-analysis of all published observational studies to address this inconsistency.Literature was searched in online database and a systematic review was conducted based on the search results.A total of 24 studies were included and dichotomous data were presented as odds ratio(OR) with a 95%confidence interval(CI).The rs2430561 T allele was associated with reduced persistent HBV infection risk(T vs.A:OR,0.690;95%CI,[0.490,0.971]),while the rs2077647 T allele significantly increased the risk of persistent HBV infection(T vs.C:OR.1.678;95%CI,[1.212,2.3231).Rs 2077647 CC might play a role in protecting individuals against HBV persistence(TT vs.CC:OR,4.109;95%CI,[2.609,6.473]).Furthermore,carriers of the rs2430561 TT genotype were more likely to clear HBV spontaneously compared with those of the AA genotype(TT vs.AA:OR,0.555;95%CI,[0.359,0.856]).For rs12979860 C/T polymorphism,no significant correlation with HBV infection outcomes was found.In subgroup analyses,the results were similar to those of overall analysis.However,for rs2077647 TT vs.TC+CC,significantly increased risks were observed in the Asian and hospital-based population,but not in the overall analysis.IFN-γrs2430561 T/A and ERα rs2077647 T/C genetic polymorphisms were associated with outcomes of HBV infection,but no association was found between IL28 B rs12979860 C/T and HBV infection.展开更多
A cross-sectional study using the snowball sampling method was conducted in May 2008 to investigate human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection status and related high risk factors among men who have sex with men (MS...A cross-sectional study using the snowball sampling method was conducted in May 2008 to investigate human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection status and related high risk factors among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Suzhou city of Jiangsu province. The researchers carried out a face-to-face questionnaire interview among MSM, and collected their blood samples to test for HIV and other sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). Among the 280 respondents, 91.1% had homosexual acts in the past 6 months and 87.5% had multiple homosexual partners; 46.4% had heterosexual sex in the past 6 months and 33.1% had multiple heterosexual partners. The rate of continued condom use was 44.3% in homosexual sex in the past 6 months, while the rate in heterosexual sex was 33.9%. Laboratory test results showed that the prevalences of HIV and syphilis were 7.1% (20/280) and 15.0% (42/280), respectively, but no HCV-positive person was found. In the multivariate logistic regression model, subjects with a monthly income of more than RMB $ 1,000 (OR=4.83,95% CI=1.44-16.22), subjects who often went to bars for sexual partners (OR=2.25, 95%CI=1.21-4.20), and subjects who had more than one sexual partner in the past 6 months (OR=0.49, 95%CI=0.25-0.97) and had sex with fixed sexual partners in the past 6 months (OR=0.42, 95%CI=0.25-0.75) were significantly associated with the rate of continued condom use in homosexual sex in the past 6 months. Unprotected sex and multiple sexual partners were more common among MSM in Suzhou city; furthermore, the prevalences of HIV infection and syphilis were relatively high. HIV preventive measures should be designed to address these risk factors and control the spread of HIV among MSM.展开更多
Due to the wide application of ceramics in electronic device packaging,the performance of ceramic metallization layer directly determines the performance of the whole package device.This paper introduces the main prep...Due to the wide application of ceramics in electronic device packaging,the performance of ceramic metallization layer directly determines the performance of the whole package device.This paper introduces the main preparation methods of ceramic metallization,discusses the influence of Mo powder size,metallization formula,sintering temperature and other factors on the performance of ceramic metallization layer prepared by activated Mo-Mn method,and introduces several kinds of methods that can be tested to test the performance of ceramic metallized sealing samples.A new research direction of Ceramic Metallization Technology in the advanced field is put forward.展开更多
Background:Evidence is inefficient about how meteorological factors influence the trends of influenza transmission in different regions of China.Methods:We estimated the time-varying reproduction number(Rt)of influenz...Background:Evidence is inefficient about how meteorological factors influence the trends of influenza transmission in different regions of China.Methods:We estimated the time-varying reproduction number(Rt)of influenza and explored the impact of temperature and relative humidity on Rt using generalized additive quasi-Poisson regression models combined with the distribution lag non-linear model(DLNM).The effect of temperature and humidity interaction on Rt of influenza was explored.The multiple random-meta analysis was used to evaluate region-specific association.The excess risk(ER)index was defined to investigate the correlation between Rt and each meteorological factor with the modification of seasonal and regional characteristics.Results:Low temperature and low relative humidity contributed to influenza epidemics on the national level,while shapes of merged cumulative effect plots were different across regions.Compared to that of median temperature,the merged RR(95%CI)of low tem-perature in northern and southern regions were 1.40(1.24,1.45)and 1.20(1.14,1.27),respectively,while those of high temperature were 1.10(1.03,1.17)and 1.00(0.95,1.04),respectively.There were negative interactions between temperature and relative humidity on national(SI=0.59,95%CI:0.57e0.61),southern(SI=0.49,95%CI:0.17e0.80),and northern regions(SI=0.59,95%CI:0.56,0.62).In general,with the increase of the change of the two meteorological factors,the ER of Rt also gradually increased.Conclusions:Temperature and relative humidity have an effect on the influenza epidemics in China,and there is an interaction between the two meteorological factors,but the effect of each factor is heterogeneous among regions.Meteorological factors may be considered to predict the trend of influenza epidemic.展开更多
The prediction system EpiSIX was used to study the COVID-19 epidemic in China's Mainland between November 2022 and January 2023,based on reported data from December 9,2022,to January 30,2023,released by The Chines...The prediction system EpiSIX was used to study the COVID-19 epidemic in China's Mainland between November 2022 and January 2023,based on reported data from December 9,2022,to January 30,2023,released by The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention on February 1,2023.Three kinds of reported data were used for model fitting:the daily numbers of positive nucleic acid tests and deaths,and the daily number of hospital beds taken by COVID-19 patients.It was estimated that the overall infection rate was 87.54%and the overall case fatality rate was 0.078%–0.116%(median 0.100%).Assuming that a new COVID-19 epidemic outbreak would start in March or April of 2023,induced by a slightly more infectious mutant strain,we predicted a possible large rebound between September and October 2023,with a peak demand of between 800,000 and 900,000 inpatient beds.If no such new outbreak was induced by other variants,then the current COVID-19 epidemic course in China's Mainland would remain under control until the end of 2023.However,it is suggested that the necessary medical resources be prepared to manage possible COVID-19 epidemic emergencies in the near future,especially for the period between September and October 2023.展开更多
基于传播动力学及普适SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered/removed)模型和程序Epi SIX (模型总参数只有10个),实时跟踪国家及各地卫生健康委员会(简称卫健委)自2019年12月12日以来发布的确诊数据,对新型冠状病毒肺炎(简称...基于传播动力学及普适SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered/removed)模型和程序Epi SIX (模型总参数只有10个),实时跟踪国家及各地卫生健康委员会(简称卫健委)自2019年12月12日以来发布的确诊数据,对新型冠状病毒肺炎(简称新冠肺炎)疫情的流行趋势进行了研判,对疾控策略的效率进行了评估,并将相应的建议提供给疾控方参考.特别地,厘清了这次疫情的流行病学基本参数,如基本再生数、平均潜伏期、平均传染期、非典型患者占比和流行趋势,包括流行时间、疫情拐点、流行规模,并分析了控制强度对传播的影响等.同时创建了一个网页来更新预测结果.展开更多
Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)is currently under a global pandemic trend.The efficiency of containment measures and epidemic tendency of typical countries should be assessed.In this study,the efficiency of prevent...Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)is currently under a global pandemic trend.The efficiency of containment measures and epidemic tendency of typical countries should be assessed.In this study,the efficiency of prevention and control measures in China,Italy,Iran,South Korea,and Japan was assessed,and the COVID-19 epidemic tendency among these countries was compared.Results showed that the effective reproduction number(Re)in Wuhan,China increased almost exponentially,reaching a maximum of 3.98 before a lockdown and rapidly decreased to below 1 due to containment and mitigation strategies of the Chinese government.The Re in Italy declined at a slower pace than that in China after the implementation of prevention and control measures.The Re in Iran showed a certain decline after the establishment of a national epidemic control command,and an evident stationary phase occurred because the best window period for the prevention and control of the epidemic was missed.The epidemic in Japan and South Korea reoccurred several times with the Re fluctuating greatly.The epidemic has hardly rebounded in China due to the implementation of prevention and control strategies and the effective enforcement of policies.Other countries suffering from the epidemic could learn from the Chinese experience in containing COVID-19.展开更多
The global pandemic of 2019 coronavirus disease(COVID-19)is a great assault to public health.Presymptomatic transmission cannot be controlled with measures designed for symptomatic persons,such as isolation.This study...The global pandemic of 2019 coronavirus disease(COVID-19)is a great assault to public health.Presymptomatic transmission cannot be controlled with measures designed for symptomatic persons,such as isolation.This study aimed to estimate the interval of the transmission generation(TG)and the presymptomatic period of COVID-19,and compare the ftting effects of TG and serial interval(S)based on the SEIHR model incorporating the surveillance data of 3453 cases in 31 provinces.These data were allocated into three distributions and the value of AIC presented that the Weibull distribution fitted well.The mean of TG was 5.2 days(95%C:4.6-5.8).The mean of the presymptomatic period was 2.4 days(95%CI:1.5-3.2).The dynamic model using TG as the generation time performed well.Eight provinces exhibited a basic reproduction number from 2.16 to 3.14.Measures should be taken to control presymptomatic transmission in the COVID-19 pandemic.展开更多
A new coronavirus disease(COVID-19)with infection by a novel coronavirus named severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2)has spread globally since December 2019.By 22th September 2020,more than 200 co...A new coronavirus disease(COVID-19)with infection by a novel coronavirus named severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2)has spread globally since December 2019.By 22th September 2020,more than 200 countries worldwide have reported about 30 million confirmed cases and more than 950,000 deaths.1 China has reported a total of 85,307(including 2,758 imported)cases and 4,634 deaths.展开更多
Dear Editor,The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2)has waged a global pandemic. As of April 15, 2022, more than 500 million cases of COVID-19 had ...Dear Editor,The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2)has waged a global pandemic. As of April 15, 2022, more than 500 million cases of COVID-19 had been reported, with more than 6 million deaths. The ultimate arsenal to fight against this pandemic is highly effective vaccines (Bok et al.,2021;Sadarangani et al., 2021).展开更多
The World Health Organization(WHO)declared monkeypox as a public health emergency of international concern(PHEIC)on July 23,2022,their highest level of alert.This raised concerns about the management of the global mon...The World Health Organization(WHO)declared monkeypox as a public health emergency of international concern(PHEIC)on July 23,2022,their highest level of alert.This raised concerns about the management of the global monkeypox outbreak,as well as the scientific analysis and accurate prediction of the future course of the epidemic.This study used EpiSIX(an analysis and prediction system for epidemics based on a general SEIR model)to analyze the monkeypox epidemic and to forecast the major tendencies based on data from the USA CDC(https://www.cdc.gov)and the WHO(https://www.who.int/health-topics/monkeypox).The global outbreak of monkeypox started in the UK on May 2,2022,which marked the beginning of an epidemic wave.As of October 28,2022,the cumulative number of reported cases worldwide was 77,115,with 36 deaths.EpiSIX simulations predict that the global monkeypox epidemic will enter a low epidemic status on March 1,2023 with the cumulative number of confirmed cases ranging from 85,000 to 124,000,and the total number of deaths ranging from 60 to 87.Our analysis revealed that the basic reproduction number(R0)of monkeypox virus(MPXV)is near to 3.1 and the percentage of asymptomatic individuals is 13.1%–14.5%,both of which are similar to the data for SARS.The vaccination efficiency against susceptibility(VEs)of individuals who have had monkeypox is~79%,and the vaccination efficiency against infectiousness(VEi)of individuals who have had monkeypox is~76%–82%.The mean incubation period for monkeypox is 8 days.In total,94.7%of infected individuals develop symptoms within 20 days and recover within 2 weeks after the confirmation of symptoms.Simulation results using EpiSIX showed that ring vaccination was remarkably effective against monkeypox.Our findings confirmed that a 20-day isolation for close contacts is necessary.展开更多
Background:A COVID-19 outbreak in the rural areas of Shijiazhuang City was attributed to the complex interactions among vaccination,host,and non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPIs).Herein,we investigated the epidemiolo...Background:A COVID-19 outbreak in the rural areas of Shijiazhuang City was attributed to the complex interactions among vaccination,host,and non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPIs).Herein,we investigated the epidemiological characteristics of all reported symptomatic cases by picking Shijiazhuang City,Hebei Province in Northern China as research objective.In addition,we established an age-group mathematical model to perform the optimal fitting and to investigate the dynamical profiles under three scenarios.Methods:All reported symptomatic cases of Shijiazhuang epidemic(January 2-February 3,2021)were investigated in our study.The cases were classified by gender,age group and location,the distributions were analyzed by epidemiological characteristics.Furthermore,the reported data from Health Commission of Hebei Province was also analyzed by using an age-group mathematical model by two phases and three scenarios.Results:Shijiazhuang epidemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 wild strain was recorded with the peak 84 cases out of 868 reported symptomatic cases on January 11,2021,which was implemented with strong NPIs by local government and referred as baseline situation in this study.The research results showed that R0 under baseline situation ranged from 4.47 to 7.72,and Rt of Gaocheng Distinct took 3.72 with 95%confidence interval from 3.23 to 4.35 on January 9,the declining tendencies of Rt under baseline situation were kept till February 3,the value of Rt reached below 1 on January 19 and remained low value up to February 3 for Gaocheng District and Shijiazhuang City during Shijiazhuang epidemic.This indicated Shijiazhuang epidemic was under control on January 19.However,if the strong NPIs were kept,but remote isolation operated on January 11 was not implemented as of February 9,then the scale of Shijiazhuang epidemic reached 9,482 cases from age group who were 60 years old and over out of 31,017 symptomatic cases.The investigation also revealed that Shijiazhuang epidemic reached 132,648 symptomatic cases for age group who were 60 years old and over(short for G2)under risk-based strategies(Scenario A),58,048 symptomatic cases for G2 under late quarantine strategies(Scenario B)and 207,124 symptomatic cases for G2 under late quarantine double risk strategies(Scenario C),and that the corresponding transmission tendencies of Rt for three scenarios were consistently controlled on Jan 29,2021.Compared with baseline situation,the dates for controlling Rt below 1 under three scenarios were delayed 10 days.Conclusions:Shijiazhuang epidemic was the first COVID-19 outbreak in the rural areas in Hebei Province of Northern China.The targeted interventions adopted in early 2021 were effective to halt the transmission due to the implementation of a strict and village-wide closure.However we found that age group profile and NPIs played critical rules to successfully contain Shijiazhuang epidemic,which should be considered by public health policies in rural areas of China's Mainland during the dynamic zero-COVID policy.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.82173620 to Yang Zhao and 82041024 to Feng Chen)partially supported by the Bill&Melinda Gates Foundation(Grant No.INV-006371 to Feng Chen)Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions.
文摘Deterministic compartment models(CMs)and stochastic models,including stochastic CMs and agent-based models,are widely utilized in epidemic modeling.However,the relationship between CMs and their corresponding stochastic models is not well understood.The present study aimed to address this gap by conducting a comparative study using the susceptible,exposed,infectious,and recovered(SEIR)model and its extended CMs from the coronavirus disease 2019 modeling literature.We demonstrated the equivalence of the numerical solution of CMs using the Euler scheme and their stochastic counterparts through theoretical analysis and simulations.Based on this equivalence,we proposed an efficient model calibration method that could replicate the exact solution of CMs in the corresponding stochastic models through parameter adjustment.The advancement in calibration techniques enhanced the accuracy of stochastic modeling in capturing the dynamics of epidemics.However,it should be noted that discrete-time stochastic models cannot perfectly reproduce the exact solution of continuous-time CMs.Additionally,we proposed a new stochastic compartment and agent mixed model as an alternative to agent-based models for large-scale population simulations with a limited number of agents.This model offered a balance between computational efficiency and accuracy.The results of this research contributed to the comparison and unification of deterministic CMs and stochastic models in epidemic modeling.Furthermore,the results had implications for the development of hybrid models that integrated the strengths of both frameworks.Overall,the present study has provided valuable epidemic modeling techniques and their practical applications for understanding and controlling the spread of infectious diseases.
基金funded by Natural Science Foundation of China(81001288)National S&T Major Project Foundation of China(No.2012ZX10001-001 and No.2011ZX 10004-902)+2 种基金Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD)Jiangsu Province Health Development Project with Science and Education(NO.ZX201109)National Science and Technology Support Program (2011BAI09B02)
文摘High HIV prevalence and incidence burdens have been reported in men who have sex with men(MSM)in Chongqing,China.We aimed to estimate the prevalence of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections(STIs),to appraise the knowledge and risk behaviors related to HIV/AIDS among MSM,and to analyze the possible causes of deviation between behavior and knowledge to make better strategies.We recruited 617 MSM from February to July in 2008 by using a respondent-driven sampling(RDS) method in Chongqing,China.Through the collection of questionnaire-based data and biological testing results from all objects,we launched a crosssectional survey.STATA/SE was used for data analysis by frequency,ANOVA,rank sum test and logistic regression models.MSM with syphilis(OR=4.16,95%CI:2.35-7.33,P<0.0001) were more likely to be HIV infected.Being a company employee(OR=3.64,95%CI:1.22-10.08,P<0.0001) and having bought male for sex(OR=3.52,95%CI:1.10-11.32,P<0.034) were associated with a higher probability of syphilis.MSM with younger age,higher education and greater monthly income had a higher mean knowledge score.MSM who had HIV testing had a higher mean knowledge score than those who never had.Students,venues for finding sex partners by Internet and homosexuals in MSM had a higher mean knowledge score compared to other occupations,venues for finding sex partners and sexual orientation.There is an urgent need for delivery of barrier and biomedical interventions with coordinated behavioral and structural strategies to improve the effect of HIV interventions among MSM.
基金supported in part by"National S&T Major Project Foundation of China"(2009ZX10004-904)Universities Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(09KJB330004),National Science Foundation Grant DMS-9971405National Institutes of Health Contract N01-HV-28183
文摘This paper first applies the sequential cluster method to set up the classification standard of infectious disease incidence state based on the fact that there are many uncertainty characteristics in the incidence course.Then the paper presents a weighted Markov chain,a method which is used to predict the future incidence state.This method assumes the standardized self-coefficients as weights based on the special characteristics of infectious disease incidence being a dependent stochastic variable.It also analyzes the characteristics of infectious diseases incidence via the Markov chain Monte Carlo method to make the long-term benefit of decision optimal.Our method is successfully validated using existing incidents data of infectious diseases in Jiangsu Province.In summation,this paper proposes ways to improve the accuracy of the weighted Markov chain,specifically in the field of infection epidemiology.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.81102165,81102164 and 81273146)Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions
文摘Several studies investigated associations of IFN-γ rs2430561 T/A,IL28 B rs12979860 C/T and ERα rs2077647 T/C gene polymorphisms with outcomes of hepatitis B virus(HBV) infection,but the results were controversial.Therefore,we performed a meta-analysis of all published observational studies to address this inconsistency.Literature was searched in online database and a systematic review was conducted based on the search results.A total of 24 studies were included and dichotomous data were presented as odds ratio(OR) with a 95%confidence interval(CI).The rs2430561 T allele was associated with reduced persistent HBV infection risk(T vs.A:OR,0.690;95%CI,[0.490,0.971]),while the rs2077647 T allele significantly increased the risk of persistent HBV infection(T vs.C:OR.1.678;95%CI,[1.212,2.3231).Rs 2077647 CC might play a role in protecting individuals against HBV persistence(TT vs.CC:OR,4.109;95%CI,[2.609,6.473]).Furthermore,carriers of the rs2430561 TT genotype were more likely to clear HBV spontaneously compared with those of the AA genotype(TT vs.AA:OR,0.555;95%CI,[0.359,0.856]).For rs12979860 C/T polymorphism,no significant correlation with HBV infection outcomes was found.In subgroup analyses,the results were similar to those of overall analysis.However,for rs2077647 TT vs.TC+CC,significantly increased risks were observed in the Asian and hospital-based population,but not in the overall analysis.IFN-γrs2430561 T/A and ERα rs2077647 T/C genetic polymorphisms were associated with outcomes of HBV infection,but no association was found between IL28 B rs12979860 C/T and HBV infection.
基金supported by National Natusal Seience Foundation of China (81001288)National S&T Major Project Foundation of China(No. 2008ZX10001-003+1 种基金 2009ZX10004-904)Universities National Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province (No. 09KJB330004)
文摘A cross-sectional study using the snowball sampling method was conducted in May 2008 to investigate human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection status and related high risk factors among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Suzhou city of Jiangsu province. The researchers carried out a face-to-face questionnaire interview among MSM, and collected their blood samples to test for HIV and other sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). Among the 280 respondents, 91.1% had homosexual acts in the past 6 months and 87.5% had multiple homosexual partners; 46.4% had heterosexual sex in the past 6 months and 33.1% had multiple heterosexual partners. The rate of continued condom use was 44.3% in homosexual sex in the past 6 months, while the rate in heterosexual sex was 33.9%. Laboratory test results showed that the prevalences of HIV and syphilis were 7.1% (20/280) and 15.0% (42/280), respectively, but no HCV-positive person was found. In the multivariate logistic regression model, subjects with a monthly income of more than RMB $ 1,000 (OR=4.83,95% CI=1.44-16.22), subjects who often went to bars for sexual partners (OR=2.25, 95%CI=1.21-4.20), and subjects who had more than one sexual partner in the past 6 months (OR=0.49, 95%CI=0.25-0.97) and had sex with fixed sexual partners in the past 6 months (OR=0.42, 95%CI=0.25-0.75) were significantly associated with the rate of continued condom use in homosexual sex in the past 6 months. Unprotected sex and multiple sexual partners were more common among MSM in Suzhou city; furthermore, the prevalences of HIV infection and syphilis were relatively high. HIV preventive measures should be designed to address these risk factors and control the spread of HIV among MSM.
基金The authors are grateful to National Science Foundation of China(51602347)Hunan Natural Science Foundation(2019JJ50282)for financial support.The authors are also grateful to Aid Program for Innovative Group of National University of Defense Technology and Aid Program for Science and Technology Innovative Research Team in Higher Educational Institutions of Hunan Province.
文摘Due to the wide application of ceramics in electronic device packaging,the performance of ceramic metallization layer directly determines the performance of the whole package device.This paper introduces the main preparation methods of ceramic metallization,discusses the influence of Mo powder size,metallization formula,sintering temperature and other factors on the performance of ceramic metallization layer prepared by activated Mo-Mn method,and introduces several kinds of methods that can be tested to test the performance of ceramic metallized sealing samples.A new research direction of Ceramic Metallization Technology in the advanced field is put forward.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(82073673)National Key R&D Program of China(2022YFC2304000).
文摘Background:Evidence is inefficient about how meteorological factors influence the trends of influenza transmission in different regions of China.Methods:We estimated the time-varying reproduction number(Rt)of influenza and explored the impact of temperature and relative humidity on Rt using generalized additive quasi-Poisson regression models combined with the distribution lag non-linear model(DLNM).The effect of temperature and humidity interaction on Rt of influenza was explored.The multiple random-meta analysis was used to evaluate region-specific association.The excess risk(ER)index was defined to investigate the correlation between Rt and each meteorological factor with the modification of seasonal and regional characteristics.Results:Low temperature and low relative humidity contributed to influenza epidemics on the national level,while shapes of merged cumulative effect plots were different across regions.Compared to that of median temperature,the merged RR(95%CI)of low tem-perature in northern and southern regions were 1.40(1.24,1.45)and 1.20(1.14,1.27),respectively,while those of high temperature were 1.10(1.03,1.17)and 1.00(0.95,1.04),respectively.There were negative interactions between temperature and relative humidity on national(SI=0.59,95%CI:0.57e0.61),southern(SI=0.49,95%CI:0.17e0.80),and northern regions(SI=0.59,95%CI:0.56,0.62).In general,with the increase of the change of the two meteorological factors,the ER of Rt also gradually increased.Conclusions:Temperature and relative humidity have an effect on the influenza epidemics in China,and there is an interaction between the two meteorological factors,but the effect of each factor is heterogeneous among regions.Meteorological factors may be considered to predict the trend of influenza epidemic.
基金This study was supported by grants from a Consultancy Project of the Chinese Academy of Engineering(CAE,2022-JB-06)Natural Science Foundation of Shaanxi Province,China(2023-JC-YB-676)+1 种基金Innovation Foundation of Medical Research Project of Xi’an City(2022YXYJ0040)Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province of China(2021 J01621).
文摘The prediction system EpiSIX was used to study the COVID-19 epidemic in China's Mainland between November 2022 and January 2023,based on reported data from December 9,2022,to January 30,2023,released by The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention on February 1,2023.Three kinds of reported data were used for model fitting:the daily numbers of positive nucleic acid tests and deaths,and the daily number of hospital beds taken by COVID-19 patients.It was estimated that the overall infection rate was 87.54%and the overall case fatality rate was 0.078%–0.116%(median 0.100%).Assuming that a new COVID-19 epidemic outbreak would start in March or April of 2023,induced by a slightly more infectious mutant strain,we predicted a possible large rebound between September and October 2023,with a peak demand of between 800,000 and 900,000 inpatient beds.If no such new outbreak was induced by other variants,then the current COVID-19 epidemic course in China's Mainland would remain under control until the end of 2023.However,it is suggested that the necessary medical resources be prepared to manage possible COVID-19 epidemic emergencies in the near future,especially for the period between September and October 2023.
文摘基于传播动力学及普适SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered/removed)模型和程序Epi SIX (模型总参数只有10个),实时跟踪国家及各地卫生健康委员会(简称卫健委)自2019年12月12日以来发布的确诊数据,对新型冠状病毒肺炎(简称新冠肺炎)疫情的流行趋势进行了研判,对疾控策略的效率进行了评估,并将相应的建议提供给疾控方参考.特别地,厘清了这次疫情的流行病学基本参数,如基本再生数、平均潜伏期、平均传染期、非典型患者占比和流行趋势,包括流行时间、疫情拐点、流行规模,并分析了控制强度对传播的影响等.同时创建了一个网页来更新预测结果.
基金The study was supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.81673275 and 91846302)the National S&T Major Project Foundation of China(Nos.2018ZX10715002-004 and 2018ZX10713001-001)the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(PAPD).
文摘Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)is currently under a global pandemic trend.The efficiency of containment measures and epidemic tendency of typical countries should be assessed.In this study,the efficiency of prevention and control measures in China,Italy,Iran,South Korea,and Japan was assessed,and the COVID-19 epidemic tendency among these countries was compared.Results showed that the effective reproduction number(Re)in Wuhan,China increased almost exponentially,reaching a maximum of 3.98 before a lockdown and rapidly decreased to below 1 due to containment and mitigation strategies of the Chinese government.The Re in Italy declined at a slower pace than that in China after the implementation of prevention and control measures.The Re in Iran showed a certain decline after the establishment of a national epidemic control command,and an evident stationary phase occurred because the best window period for the prevention and control of the epidemic was missed.The epidemic in Japan and South Korea reoccurred several times with the Re fluctuating greatly.The epidemic has hardly rebounded in China due to the implementation of prevention and control strategies and the effective enforcement of policies.Other countries suffering from the epidemic could learn from the Chinese experience in containing COVID-19.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(82041026,81673275,11961071,91846302)the Huai'an Key Laboratory for Infectious Diseases Control and Prevention(HAP201704).
文摘The global pandemic of 2019 coronavirus disease(COVID-19)is a great assault to public health.Presymptomatic transmission cannot be controlled with measures designed for symptomatic persons,such as isolation.This study aimed to estimate the interval of the transmission generation(TG)and the presymptomatic period of COVID-19,and compare the ftting effects of TG and serial interval(S)based on the SEIHR model incorporating the surveillance data of 3453 cases in 31 provinces.These data were allocated into three distributions and the value of AIC presented that the Weibull distribution fitted well.The mean of TG was 5.2 days(95%C:4.6-5.8).The mean of the presymptomatic period was 2.4 days(95%CI:1.5-3.2).The dynamic model using TG as the generation time performed well.Eight provinces exhibited a basic reproduction number from 2.16 to 3.14.Measures should be taken to control presymptomatic transmission in the COVID-19 pandemic.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(81950410639[L.Z.],11801435[M.S.],11631012[Y.X.],81673275[Z.P.],91846302[Z.P.])Outstanding Young Scholars Support Program(3111500001[L.Z.])+9 种基金Xi'an Jiaotong University Basic Research and Profession Grant(xtr022019003[L.Z.],xzy032020032[L.Z.])Xi'an Jiaotong University Young Scholar Support Grant(YX6J004[L.Z.])the Bill&Melinda Gates Foundation(20200344[L.Z.])China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2018M631134,2020T130095ZX)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(xjh012019055,xzy032020026)Natural Science Basic Research Program of Shaanxi Province(2019JQ-187)Xi'an Special Science and Technology Projects on Prevention and Treatment of Novel Coronavirus Penumonia Emergency(20200005YX005)Zhejiang University special scientific research fund for COVID-19 prevention and control(2020XGZX056)the National S&T Major Project Foundation of China(2018ZX10715002-004,2018ZX10713001-001)the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(PAPD).
文摘A new coronavirus disease(COVID-19)with infection by a novel coronavirus named severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2)has spread globally since December 2019.By 22th September 2020,more than 200 countries worldwide have reported about 30 million confirmed cases and more than 950,000 deaths.1 China has reported a total of 85,307(including 2,758 imported)cases and 4,634 deaths.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(82073673)the National Science and Technology Major Project of China(2018ZX10715002-004-002,2018ZX10713001-001)+2 种基金the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(PAPD)Key Research and Development Program of Department of Health of Jiangsu(ZDB2020036)Project of Nanjing Infectious Disease Clinical Medical Center Construction(NA2021062071)。
文摘Dear Editor,The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2)has waged a global pandemic. As of April 15, 2022, more than 500 million cases of COVID-19 had been reported, with more than 6 million deaths. The ultimate arsenal to fight against this pandemic is highly effective vaccines (Bok et al.,2021;Sadarangani et al., 2021).
基金This study was supported by grants from the Consultancy Project by the Chinese Academy of Engineering(CAE,2022-JB-06)the Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province(2021 J01621)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61873154)the National Key R&D Program of China(2021ZD0114102).
文摘The World Health Organization(WHO)declared monkeypox as a public health emergency of international concern(PHEIC)on July 23,2022,their highest level of alert.This raised concerns about the management of the global monkeypox outbreak,as well as the scientific analysis and accurate prediction of the future course of the epidemic.This study used EpiSIX(an analysis and prediction system for epidemics based on a general SEIR model)to analyze the monkeypox epidemic and to forecast the major tendencies based on data from the USA CDC(https://www.cdc.gov)and the WHO(https://www.who.int/health-topics/monkeypox).The global outbreak of monkeypox started in the UK on May 2,2022,which marked the beginning of an epidemic wave.As of October 28,2022,the cumulative number of reported cases worldwide was 77,115,with 36 deaths.EpiSIX simulations predict that the global monkeypox epidemic will enter a low epidemic status on March 1,2023 with the cumulative number of confirmed cases ranging from 85,000 to 124,000,and the total number of deaths ranging from 60 to 87.Our analysis revealed that the basic reproduction number(R0)of monkeypox virus(MPXV)is near to 3.1 and the percentage of asymptomatic individuals is 13.1%–14.5%,both of which are similar to the data for SARS.The vaccination efficiency against susceptibility(VEs)of individuals who have had monkeypox is~79%,and the vaccination efficiency against infectiousness(VEi)of individuals who have had monkeypox is~76%–82%.The mean incubation period for monkeypox is 8 days.In total,94.7%of infected individuals develop symptoms within 20 days and recover within 2 weeks after the confirmation of symptoms.Simulation results using EpiSIX showed that ring vaccination was remarkably effective against monkeypox.Our findings confirmed that a 20-day isolation for close contacts is necessary.
基金supported by Special Projects of the Central Government Guiding Local Science and Technology Development (2021L3018)the Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province of China (2021J01621)+2 种基金Consultancy Project by the Chinese Academy of Engineering (2022-JB-06)National Natural Science Foundation of China (12231012)Scientific Research Training Program in Fuzhou University (26040).
文摘Background:A COVID-19 outbreak in the rural areas of Shijiazhuang City was attributed to the complex interactions among vaccination,host,and non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPIs).Herein,we investigated the epidemiological characteristics of all reported symptomatic cases by picking Shijiazhuang City,Hebei Province in Northern China as research objective.In addition,we established an age-group mathematical model to perform the optimal fitting and to investigate the dynamical profiles under three scenarios.Methods:All reported symptomatic cases of Shijiazhuang epidemic(January 2-February 3,2021)were investigated in our study.The cases were classified by gender,age group and location,the distributions were analyzed by epidemiological characteristics.Furthermore,the reported data from Health Commission of Hebei Province was also analyzed by using an age-group mathematical model by two phases and three scenarios.Results:Shijiazhuang epidemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 wild strain was recorded with the peak 84 cases out of 868 reported symptomatic cases on January 11,2021,which was implemented with strong NPIs by local government and referred as baseline situation in this study.The research results showed that R0 under baseline situation ranged from 4.47 to 7.72,and Rt of Gaocheng Distinct took 3.72 with 95%confidence interval from 3.23 to 4.35 on January 9,the declining tendencies of Rt under baseline situation were kept till February 3,the value of Rt reached below 1 on January 19 and remained low value up to February 3 for Gaocheng District and Shijiazhuang City during Shijiazhuang epidemic.This indicated Shijiazhuang epidemic was under control on January 19.However,if the strong NPIs were kept,but remote isolation operated on January 11 was not implemented as of February 9,then the scale of Shijiazhuang epidemic reached 9,482 cases from age group who were 60 years old and over out of 31,017 symptomatic cases.The investigation also revealed that Shijiazhuang epidemic reached 132,648 symptomatic cases for age group who were 60 years old and over(short for G2)under risk-based strategies(Scenario A),58,048 symptomatic cases for G2 under late quarantine strategies(Scenario B)and 207,124 symptomatic cases for G2 under late quarantine double risk strategies(Scenario C),and that the corresponding transmission tendencies of Rt for three scenarios were consistently controlled on Jan 29,2021.Compared with baseline situation,the dates for controlling Rt below 1 under three scenarios were delayed 10 days.Conclusions:Shijiazhuang epidemic was the first COVID-19 outbreak in the rural areas in Hebei Province of Northern China.The targeted interventions adopted in early 2021 were effective to halt the transmission due to the implementation of a strict and village-wide closure.However we found that age group profile and NPIs played critical rules to successfully contain Shijiazhuang epidemic,which should be considered by public health policies in rural areas of China's Mainland during the dynamic zero-COVID policy.
