Natural gas hydrate(NGH)has been widely considered as an alternative to conventional oil and gas resources in the future energy resource supply since Trofimuk’s first resource assessment in 1973.At least 29 global es...Natural gas hydrate(NGH)has been widely considered as an alternative to conventional oil and gas resources in the future energy resource supply since Trofimuk’s first resource assessment in 1973.At least 29 global estimates have been published from various studies so far,among which 24 estimates are greater than the total conventional gas resources.If drawn in chronological order,the 29 historical resource estimates show a clear downward trend,reflecting the changes in our perception with respect to its resource potential with increasing our knowledge on the NGH with time.A time series of the 29 estimates was used to establish a statistical model for predict the future trend.The model produces an expected resource value of 41.46×1012 m3 at the year of 2050.The statistical trend projected future gas hydrate resource is only about 10%of total natural gas resource in conventional reservoir,consistent with estimates of global technically recoverable resources(TRR)in gas hydrate from Monte Carlo technique based on volumetric and material balance approaches.Considering the technical challenges and high cost in commercial production and the lack of competitive advantages compared with rapid growing unconventional and renewable resources,only those on the very top of the gas hydrate resource pyramid will be added to future energy supply.It is unlikely that the NGH will be the major energy source in the future.展开更多
China Geological Survey conducted the second trial production of natural gas hydrate(NGH)in the Shenhu Area in South China Sea(SCS)from 2019 to 2020.Compared with the first trial production in 2017,the second trial sh...China Geological Survey conducted the second trial production of natural gas hydrate(NGH)in the Shenhu Area in South China Sea(SCS)from 2019 to 2020.Compared with the first trial production in 2017,the second trial showed significantly increased daily gas production and total gas production,and removed some technical obstacles for large-scale NGH resource developments in the SCS.However,current NGH resource evaluation in the SCS is still at the stage of prospective gas content assessment,which is unable to guide further NGH exploration and development.This study utilized the hydrate phase balance to delineate the NGH distribution range and effective thickness and volumetric method to evaluate NGH resource.Based on the latest exploration and production data from the Shenhu Area,Monte Carlo simulation was performed to calculate the NGH resource amount with different probabilities.By assuming a 50%cumulative probability,the in-situ NGH resources in the SCS was estimated to be11.7×10^(12)m^(3) and the recoverable NGH resources was 2.8×10^(12)m^(3).These results will provide a more reliable resource basis for China to formulate comprehensive development strategies for oil and gas exploration in the SCS.展开更多
Natural gas hydrate(NGH)has attracted much attention as a new alternative energy globally.However,evaluations of global NGH resources in the past few decades have casted a decreasing trend,where the estimate as of tod...Natural gas hydrate(NGH)has attracted much attention as a new alternative energy globally.However,evaluations of global NGH resources in the past few decades have casted a decreasing trend,where the estimate as of today is less than one ten-thousandth of the estimate forty years ago.The NGH researches in China started relatively late,but achievements have been made in the South China Sea(SCS)in the past two decades.Thirty-five studies had been carried out to evaluate NGH resource,and results showed a flat trend,ranging from 60 to 90 billion tons of oil equivalent,which was 2-3 times of the evaluation results of technical recoverable oil and gas resources in the SCS.The big difference is that the previous 35 group of NGH resource evaluations for the SCS only refers to the prospective gas resource with low grade level and high uncertainty,which cannot be used to guide exploration or researches on development strategies.Based on the analogy with the genetic mechanism of conventional oil and gas resources,this study adopts the newly proposed genetic method and geological analogy method to evaluate the NGH resource.Results show that the conventional oil and gas resources are 346.29×10^(8)t,the volume of NGH and free dynamic field are 25.19×10^(4)km^(3) and(2.05-2.48)×10^(6)km^(3),and the total amount of in-situ NGH resources in the SCS is about(4.47-6.02)×10^(12)m^(3).It is considered that the resource of hydrate should not exceed that of conventional oil and gas,so it is 30 times lower than the previous estimate.This study provides a more reliable geological basis for further NGH exploration and development.展开更多
As an efficient clean energy,natural gas hydrate(NGH)has become a hot topic in recent researches.Since1990 s,China has made great achievements and progress in NGH exploration in the South China Sea(SCS),including dete...As an efficient clean energy,natural gas hydrate(NGH)has become a hot topic in recent researches.Since1990 s,China has made great achievements and progress in NGH exploration in the South China Sea(SCS),including determination of the favorable distribution areas and favorable strata thickness,identification of the dual source for accumulation,evaluation of the prospective gas contents,verification of the widespread existence,and confirmation of the technical recoverability of NGH resources.However,there are three major challenges in the NGH studies.First,all the 24 national key and major projects in the SCS focused on trial production engineering and geological engineering in the past 20 years,while 8 of the 10 international NGH research projects focused on resource potential.Second,resource evaluation methods are outdated and some parameter selection are subjective.Third,the existing resource evaluation results are low-level with a great uncertainty,and cannot be used to guide NGH exploration and production or strategic research.To improve the evaluation of NGH resources in the SCS,future researches should focus on four aspects:(1)improve the research on the criterion of the objective existence of NGH and the method of prediction and evaluation;(2)apply new theories and methods from the global NGH research;(3)boost the research on the difference and correlation of the conditions of hydrocarbon migration and accumulation in different basins;(4)innovate the theory and method of NGH resource potential evaluation.展开更多
Natural gas hydrate(NGH),considered as a type of premium energy alternative to conventional hydrocarbons,has been broadly studied.The estimate of the total NGH resources in the world has decreased by more than 90%sinc...Natural gas hydrate(NGH),considered as a type of premium energy alternative to conventional hydrocarbons,has been broadly studied.The estimate of the total NGH resources in the world has decreased by more than 90%since the first evaluation in 1973.Geographic and geophysical conditions of the South China Sea(SCS)are favorable for the formation of NGH,which has been proved by drilling results up to date.The recoverability of the NGH in the SCS has been confirmed by the production tests using both vertical and horizontal wells.Since 2001,35 estimates of NGH resources in the SCS have been made,with relatively stable results varying between 600 and 900×109 ton oil equivalent.In these estimations,the volumetric method was commonly adopted,but the geological conditions,the migration-accumulation mechanisms of NGH,and the practical recoverability were not considered.These estimates cannot be regarded as evaluated resources according to the international resource evaluation standards,but are at most about prospective gas content of NGH,thus inefficient for guiding explorations and developments.To solve these problems,this study divides the past NGH surveys in the SCS into seven stages,acquires key geological parameters of every stage based on previous studies and analogy with other areas,evaluates the NGH resources of these seven stages by using the volumetric method,then adopts a new trend-analysis method to simulate the downward trend of these estimates,and finally predicts the NGH resources in the SCS at 2025 and 2030.The downward trend is because of the continuous improvement of NGH understanding over time,which is consistent with the trend of global NGH estimates.At the present stage(from 2019 to 2021),the average technically recoverable resource(ATRR)is 7.0×10^(12)m^(3),and the estimates of 2025 and 2030 ATRR are 6.46×10^(12)m^(3) and 4.01×10^(12)m^(3)respectively,with a difference of less than 40%.Therefore,it can be inferred that the ATRR of NGH in the SCS is between 4.0 and 6.5×10^(12)m^(3),with an average of 5.25×10^(12)m^(3).展开更多
There have been at least 29 groups of estimates on the global natural gas hydrate(NGH)resource since1973,varying greatly with up to 10,000 times and showing a decreasing trend with time.For the South China Sea(SCS),35...There have been at least 29 groups of estimates on the global natural gas hydrate(NGH)resource since1973,varying greatly with up to 10,000 times and showing a decreasing trend with time.For the South China Sea(SCS),35 groups of estimations were conducted on NGH resource potential since 2000,while these estimates kept almost the same with time,varying between 60 and 90 billion tons of oil equivalent(toe).What are the key factors controlling the variation trend?What are the implications of these variations for the NGH development in the world and the SCS?By analyzing the investigation characteristics of NGH resources in the world,this study divided the evaluation process into six stages and confirmed four essential factors for controlling the variations of estimates.Results indicated that the reduction trend reflects an improved understanding of the NGH formation mechanism and advancement in the resource evaluation methods,and promoted more objective evaluation results.Furthermore,the analysis process and improved evaluation method was applied to evaluate the NGH resources in the SCS,showing the similar decreasing trend of NGH resources with time.By utilizing the decreasing trend model,the predicted recoverable resources in the world and the SCS are(205-500)×10^(12)m^(3)and(0.8-6.5)×10^(12)m^(3),respectively,accounting for 20%of the total conventional oil and gas resources.Recoverable NGH resource in the SCS is only about 4%-6%of the previous estimates of 60-90 billion toe.If extracted completely,it only can support the sustainable development of China for 7 years at the current annual consumption level of oil and gas.NGH cannot be the main energy resource in future due to its low resource potential and lack of advantages in recovery.展开更多
基金This research was financially supported by the CAS consultation project(Grant number-2019-ZW11-Z-035)the National Basic Research Program of China(973)(Projects:2006CB202300,2011CB201100)+1 种基金China High-Tech R&D(863)Program Project(2013AA092600)We would like to thank Gao Deli,Academician of Chinese Academy of Sciences,for his comments and recommendation in publishing this paper in Petroleum Science.
文摘Natural gas hydrate(NGH)has been widely considered as an alternative to conventional oil and gas resources in the future energy resource supply since Trofimuk’s first resource assessment in 1973.At least 29 global estimates have been published from various studies so far,among which 24 estimates are greater than the total conventional gas resources.If drawn in chronological order,the 29 historical resource estimates show a clear downward trend,reflecting the changes in our perception with respect to its resource potential with increasing our knowledge on the NGH with time.A time series of the 29 estimates was used to establish a statistical model for predict the future trend.The model produces an expected resource value of 41.46×1012 m3 at the year of 2050.The statistical trend projected future gas hydrate resource is only about 10%of total natural gas resource in conventional reservoir,consistent with estimates of global technically recoverable resources(TRR)in gas hydrate from Monte Carlo technique based on volumetric and material balance approaches.Considering the technical challenges and high cost in commercial production and the lack of competitive advantages compared with rapid growing unconventional and renewable resources,only those on the very top of the gas hydrate resource pyramid will be added to future energy supply.It is unlikely that the NGH will be the major energy source in the future.
基金funded by the major consulting project of“South China Sea Oil and Gas Comprehensive Development Strategy Research”led by Academician Gao Deli and the Faculty of Chinese Academy of SciencesConsulting Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences(2019-ZW11-Z-035)+1 种基金National Key Basic Research and Development Program(973)(2006CB202300,2011CB201100)China High-Tech R&D Project(863)(2013AA092600)。
文摘China Geological Survey conducted the second trial production of natural gas hydrate(NGH)in the Shenhu Area in South China Sea(SCS)from 2019 to 2020.Compared with the first trial production in 2017,the second trial showed significantly increased daily gas production and total gas production,and removed some technical obstacles for large-scale NGH resource developments in the SCS.However,current NGH resource evaluation in the SCS is still at the stage of prospective gas content assessment,which is unable to guide further NGH exploration and development.This study utilized the hydrate phase balance to delineate the NGH distribution range and effective thickness and volumetric method to evaluate NGH resource.Based on the latest exploration and production data from the Shenhu Area,Monte Carlo simulation was performed to calculate the NGH resource amount with different probabilities.By assuming a 50%cumulative probability,the in-situ NGH resources in the SCS was estimated to be11.7×10^(12)m^(3) and the recoverable NGH resources was 2.8×10^(12)m^(3).These results will provide a more reliable resource basis for China to formulate comprehensive development strategies for oil and gas exploration in the SCS.
基金supported by a major consulting project of"South China Sea Oil and Gas Comprehensive Development Strategy Research"led by Academician Gao Deli and the Faculty of Chinese Academy of SciencesCounsulting Project of Chinese Academy of Science(Approval Number:2019-ZW11-Z-035)+1 种基金National Key Basic Research and Development Program(973)(Nos:2006CB202300,2011CB201100)China High-tech R&D Program(863)(2013AA092600)。
文摘Natural gas hydrate(NGH)has attracted much attention as a new alternative energy globally.However,evaluations of global NGH resources in the past few decades have casted a decreasing trend,where the estimate as of today is less than one ten-thousandth of the estimate forty years ago.The NGH researches in China started relatively late,but achievements have been made in the South China Sea(SCS)in the past two decades.Thirty-five studies had been carried out to evaluate NGH resource,and results showed a flat trend,ranging from 60 to 90 billion tons of oil equivalent,which was 2-3 times of the evaluation results of technical recoverable oil and gas resources in the SCS.The big difference is that the previous 35 group of NGH resource evaluations for the SCS only refers to the prospective gas resource with low grade level and high uncertainty,which cannot be used to guide exploration or researches on development strategies.Based on the analogy with the genetic mechanism of conventional oil and gas resources,this study adopts the newly proposed genetic method and geological analogy method to evaluate the NGH resource.Results show that the conventional oil and gas resources are 346.29×10^(8)t,the volume of NGH and free dynamic field are 25.19×10^(4)km^(3) and(2.05-2.48)×10^(6)km^(3),and the total amount of in-situ NGH resources in the SCS is about(4.47-6.02)×10^(12)m^(3).It is considered that the resource of hydrate should not exceed that of conventional oil and gas,so it is 30 times lower than the previous estimate.This study provides a more reliable geological basis for further NGH exploration and development.
基金financially supported by the CAS consultation project“South China Sea Oil and Gas Comprehensive Development Strategy”(2019-ZW11-Z-035)the National Basic Research Program of China(2006CB202300,2011CB201100)the National HighTech R&D(863)Program of China(2013AA092600)。
文摘As an efficient clean energy,natural gas hydrate(NGH)has become a hot topic in recent researches.Since1990 s,China has made great achievements and progress in NGH exploration in the South China Sea(SCS),including determination of the favorable distribution areas and favorable strata thickness,identification of the dual source for accumulation,evaluation of the prospective gas contents,verification of the widespread existence,and confirmation of the technical recoverability of NGH resources.However,there are three major challenges in the NGH studies.First,all the 24 national key and major projects in the SCS focused on trial production engineering and geological engineering in the past 20 years,while 8 of the 10 international NGH research projects focused on resource potential.Second,resource evaluation methods are outdated and some parameter selection are subjective.Third,the existing resource evaluation results are low-level with a great uncertainty,and cannot be used to guide NGH exploration and production or strategic research.To improve the evaluation of NGH resources in the SCS,future researches should focus on four aspects:(1)improve the research on the criterion of the objective existence of NGH and the method of prediction and evaluation;(2)apply new theories and methods from the global NGH research;(3)boost the research on the difference and correlation of the conditions of hydrocarbon migration and accumulation in different basins;(4)innovate the theory and method of NGH resource potential evaluation.
基金financially supported by the CAS consultation project“South China Sea Oil and Gas Comprehensive Development Strategy”(2019-ZW11-Z-035)the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)(2006CB202300,2011CB201100)the National High-Tech R&D Program of China(863 Program)(2013AA092600)。
文摘Natural gas hydrate(NGH),considered as a type of premium energy alternative to conventional hydrocarbons,has been broadly studied.The estimate of the total NGH resources in the world has decreased by more than 90%since the first evaluation in 1973.Geographic and geophysical conditions of the South China Sea(SCS)are favorable for the formation of NGH,which has been proved by drilling results up to date.The recoverability of the NGH in the SCS has been confirmed by the production tests using both vertical and horizontal wells.Since 2001,35 estimates of NGH resources in the SCS have been made,with relatively stable results varying between 600 and 900×109 ton oil equivalent.In these estimations,the volumetric method was commonly adopted,but the geological conditions,the migration-accumulation mechanisms of NGH,and the practical recoverability were not considered.These estimates cannot be regarded as evaluated resources according to the international resource evaluation standards,but are at most about prospective gas content of NGH,thus inefficient for guiding explorations and developments.To solve these problems,this study divides the past NGH surveys in the SCS into seven stages,acquires key geological parameters of every stage based on previous studies and analogy with other areas,evaluates the NGH resources of these seven stages by using the volumetric method,then adopts a new trend-analysis method to simulate the downward trend of these estimates,and finally predicts the NGH resources in the SCS at 2025 and 2030.The downward trend is because of the continuous improvement of NGH understanding over time,which is consistent with the trend of global NGH estimates.At the present stage(from 2019 to 2021),the average technically recoverable resource(ATRR)is 7.0×10^(12)m^(3),and the estimates of 2025 and 2030 ATRR are 6.46×10^(12)m^(3) and 4.01×10^(12)m^(3)respectively,with a difference of less than 40%.Therefore,it can be inferred that the ATRR of NGH in the SCS is between 4.0 and 6.5×10^(12)m^(3),with an average of 5.25×10^(12)m^(3).
基金financially supported by the CAS consultation project(2019-ZW11-Z-035)the National Basic Research Program of China(973)(2006CB202300,2011CB201100)China High-Tech R&D(863)Program Project(2013AA092600)。
文摘There have been at least 29 groups of estimates on the global natural gas hydrate(NGH)resource since1973,varying greatly with up to 10,000 times and showing a decreasing trend with time.For the South China Sea(SCS),35 groups of estimations were conducted on NGH resource potential since 2000,while these estimates kept almost the same with time,varying between 60 and 90 billion tons of oil equivalent(toe).What are the key factors controlling the variation trend?What are the implications of these variations for the NGH development in the world and the SCS?By analyzing the investigation characteristics of NGH resources in the world,this study divided the evaluation process into six stages and confirmed four essential factors for controlling the variations of estimates.Results indicated that the reduction trend reflects an improved understanding of the NGH formation mechanism and advancement in the resource evaluation methods,and promoted more objective evaluation results.Furthermore,the analysis process and improved evaluation method was applied to evaluate the NGH resources in the SCS,showing the similar decreasing trend of NGH resources with time.By utilizing the decreasing trend model,the predicted recoverable resources in the world and the SCS are(205-500)×10^(12)m^(3)and(0.8-6.5)×10^(12)m^(3),respectively,accounting for 20%of the total conventional oil and gas resources.Recoverable NGH resource in the SCS is only about 4%-6%of the previous estimates of 60-90 billion toe.If extracted completely,it only can support the sustainable development of China for 7 years at the current annual consumption level of oil and gas.NGH cannot be the main energy resource in future due to its low resource potential and lack of advantages in recovery.
