电离层总电子含量(Total Electron Content,TEC)的监测与预报是空间环境研究的重要内容,对卫星通讯和导航定位等有重要意义.TEC值影响因素较多,很难确定精确物理模型来对其进行预测.本文设计了基于注意力机制的LSTM模型(Att-LSTM),采用...电离层总电子含量(Total Electron Content,TEC)的监测与预报是空间环境研究的重要内容,对卫星通讯和导航定位等有重要意义.TEC值影响因素较多,很难确定精确物理模型来对其进行预测.本文设计了基于注意力机制的LSTM模型(Att-LSTM),采用过去24小时TEC观测数据对未来TEC进行预测.选择北半球东经100°上,每2.5°纬度选择一个位置,共计36个位置来验证本文提出模型的性能,并与主流的深度学习模型如DNN、RNN、LSTM进行对比实验.取得了如下成果:(1)在选定的36个地区未来2小时单点预测上,基于本文的Att-LSTM模型的TEC预测性能明显优于其他对比模型;(2)讨论了纬度对Att-LSTM预测未来2小时TEC值时性能的影响,发现在北纬0°到60°之间,Att-LSTM预测性能随着纬度的升高而略有降低,在北纬62.5°~87.5°之间,模型预测性能出现扰动,预测效果略差;(3)讨论了磁暴期和磁静期模型的预测性能,发现无论是磁暴期还是磁静期,本文模型预测性能均较好;(4)还讨论了对未来多时点预测效果,实验结果表明,本文所提出的模型对未来2、4个小时的预测拟合度R-Square均超过0.95,预测结果比较可靠,对未来6、8、10个小时预测拟合度最高为0.7934,预测拟合度R-Square下降迅速,预测结果不可靠.展开更多
电离层天气变化正成为目前空间天气预报最重要的内容之一,建立一个可靠的、精确的电离层特征参量现报和预报系统对空间科学研究及军民用无线电信息系统保障均具有重要价值。基于国际GNSS服务组织(International GNSS Service,IGS)的地基...电离层天气变化正成为目前空间天气预报最重要的内容之一,建立一个可靠的、精确的电离层特征参量现报和预报系统对空间科学研究及军民用无线电信息系统保障均具有重要价值。基于国际GNSS服务组织(International GNSS Service,IGS)的地基GNSS和全球电离层无线电观测站(Global Ionospheric Radio Observatory,GIRO)数字测高仪的实时数据,以国际参考电离层(International Reference Ionosphere,IRI)模型为背景模型,采用高斯-马尔可夫-限带卡尔曼滤波同化技术,结合超大规模矩阵稀疏存储与处理方法,在云计算平台上构建完成了近实时全球电离层数据同化和预报系统(near-Real-Time Global Ionospheric Data AssiMilation and forecasting system,RT-GIDAM)。该系统具备了全球电离层TEC和电子密度的近实时(延时约5 min)、较高空间(5°×2.5°)和时间分辨率(15 min)的同化和预报功能,可为空间物理研究及相关无线电系统应用提供数据支撑。展开更多
The joint European Space Agency and Chinese Academy of Sciences Solar wind Magnetosphere Ionosphere Link Explorer(SMILE)mission will explore global dynamics of the magnetosphere under varying solar wind and interplane...The joint European Space Agency and Chinese Academy of Sciences Solar wind Magnetosphere Ionosphere Link Explorer(SMILE)mission will explore global dynamics of the magnetosphere under varying solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field conditions,and simultaneously monitor the auroral response of the Northern Hemisphere ionosphere.Combining these large-scale responses with medium and fine-scale measurements at a variety of cadences by additional ground-based and space-based instruments will enable a much greater scientific impact beyond the original goals of the SMILE mission.Here,we describe current community efforts to prepare for SMILE,and the benefits and context various experiments that have explicitly expressed support for SMILE can offer.A dedicated group of international scientists representing many different experiment types and geographical locations,the Ground-based and Additional Science Working Group,is facilitating these efforts.Preparations include constructing an online SMILE Data Fusion Facility,the discussion of particular or special modes for experiments such as coherent and incoherent scatter radar,and the consideration of particular observing strategies and spacecraft conjunctions.We anticipate growing interest and community engagement with the SMILE mission,and we welcome novel ideas and insights from the solar-terrestrial community.展开更多
开发地球电子辐射带的数据同化模型,对于理解辐射带电子的动态演化过程和辐射带空间天气预报具有重要意义.结合范阿伦卫星的辐射带电子观测数据和外辐射带三维扩散模型,采用卡尔曼滤波算法,本文开发了基于Fortran语言的外辐射带电子三...开发地球电子辐射带的数据同化模型,对于理解辐射带电子的动态演化过程和辐射带空间天气预报具有重要意义.结合范阿伦卫星的辐射带电子观测数据和外辐射带三维扩散模型,采用卡尔曼滤波算法,本文开发了基于Fortran语言的外辐射带电子三维数据同化模型(Three-dimensional Data Assimilative Model of Outer Radiation belt Electrons,简称TDAMORE),实现对L^(*)=3~7、能量范围为0.1~5 MeV、投掷角范围为5°~90°的外辐射带电子时空变化过程的三维重构.通过对2018年8月期间外辐射带电子通量演化过程的重构,证实TDAMORE模型可以较好地重现不同能量和不同投掷角电子通量在磁暴前后的演化特征.通过分析电子通量的观测和同化结果之间的相关系数、平均误差、平均绝对误差和均方误差,发现对于能量低于4 MeV的电子,观测与同化结果之间的相关系数基本大于0.8且误差相对较低.而对于更高能量的电子,观测与同化结果之间的误差相对较高,这可能是同化模型忽略了电磁离子回旋波对电子的散射损失导致的.展开更多
文摘电离层总电子含量(Total Electron Content,TEC)的监测与预报是空间环境研究的重要内容,对卫星通讯和导航定位等有重要意义.TEC值影响因素较多,很难确定精确物理模型来对其进行预测.本文设计了基于注意力机制的LSTM模型(Att-LSTM),采用过去24小时TEC观测数据对未来TEC进行预测.选择北半球东经100°上,每2.5°纬度选择一个位置,共计36个位置来验证本文提出模型的性能,并与主流的深度学习模型如DNN、RNN、LSTM进行对比实验.取得了如下成果:(1)在选定的36个地区未来2小时单点预测上,基于本文的Att-LSTM模型的TEC预测性能明显优于其他对比模型;(2)讨论了纬度对Att-LSTM预测未来2小时TEC值时性能的影响,发现在北纬0°到60°之间,Att-LSTM预测性能随着纬度的升高而略有降低,在北纬62.5°~87.5°之间,模型预测性能出现扰动,预测效果略差;(3)讨论了磁暴期和磁静期模型的预测性能,发现无论是磁暴期还是磁静期,本文模型预测性能均较好;(4)还讨论了对未来多时点预测效果,实验结果表明,本文所提出的模型对未来2、4个小时的预测拟合度R-Square均超过0.95,预测结果比较可靠,对未来6、8、10个小时预测拟合度最高为0.7934,预测拟合度R-Square下降迅速,预测结果不可靠.
文摘电离层天气变化正成为目前空间天气预报最重要的内容之一,建立一个可靠的、精确的电离层特征参量现报和预报系统对空间科学研究及军民用无线电信息系统保障均具有重要价值。基于国际GNSS服务组织(International GNSS Service,IGS)的地基GNSS和全球电离层无线电观测站(Global Ionospheric Radio Observatory,GIRO)数字测高仪的实时数据,以国际参考电离层(International Reference Ionosphere,IRI)模型为背景模型,采用高斯-马尔可夫-限带卡尔曼滤波同化技术,结合超大规模矩阵稀疏存储与处理方法,在云计算平台上构建完成了近实时全球电离层数据同化和预报系统(near-Real-Time Global Ionospheric Data AssiMilation and forecasting system,RT-GIDAM)。该系统具备了全球电离层TEC和电子密度的近实时(延时约5 min)、较高空间(5°×2.5°)和时间分辨率(15 min)的同化和预报功能,可为空间物理研究及相关无线电系统应用提供数据支撑。
基金supported by Royal Society grant DHFR1211068funded by UKSA+14 种基金STFCSTFC grant ST/M001083/1funded by STFC grant ST/W00089X/1supported by NERC grant NE/W003309/1(E3d)funded by NERC grant NE/V000748/1support from NERC grants NE/V015133/1,NE/R016038/1(BAS magnetometers),and grants NE/R01700X/1 and NE/R015848/1(EISCAT)supported by NERC grant NE/T000937/1NSFC grants 42174208 and 41821003supported by the Research Council of Norway grant 223252PRODEX arrangement 4000123238 from the European Space Agencysupport of the AUTUMN East-West magnetometer network by the Canadian Space Agencysupported by NASA’s Heliophysics U.S.Participating Investigator Programsupport from grant NSF AGS 2027210supported by grant Dnr:2020-00106 from the Swedish National Space Agencysupported by the German Research Foundation(DFG)under number KR 4375/2-1 within SPP"Dynamic Earth"。
文摘The joint European Space Agency and Chinese Academy of Sciences Solar wind Magnetosphere Ionosphere Link Explorer(SMILE)mission will explore global dynamics of the magnetosphere under varying solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field conditions,and simultaneously monitor the auroral response of the Northern Hemisphere ionosphere.Combining these large-scale responses with medium and fine-scale measurements at a variety of cadences by additional ground-based and space-based instruments will enable a much greater scientific impact beyond the original goals of the SMILE mission.Here,we describe current community efforts to prepare for SMILE,and the benefits and context various experiments that have explicitly expressed support for SMILE can offer.A dedicated group of international scientists representing many different experiment types and geographical locations,the Ground-based and Additional Science Working Group,is facilitating these efforts.Preparations include constructing an online SMILE Data Fusion Facility,the discussion of particular or special modes for experiments such as coherent and incoherent scatter radar,and the consideration of particular observing strategies and spacecraft conjunctions.We anticipate growing interest and community engagement with the SMILE mission,and we welcome novel ideas and insights from the solar-terrestrial community.
文摘开发地球电子辐射带的数据同化模型,对于理解辐射带电子的动态演化过程和辐射带空间天气预报具有重要意义.结合范阿伦卫星的辐射带电子观测数据和外辐射带三维扩散模型,采用卡尔曼滤波算法,本文开发了基于Fortran语言的外辐射带电子三维数据同化模型(Three-dimensional Data Assimilative Model of Outer Radiation belt Electrons,简称TDAMORE),实现对L^(*)=3~7、能量范围为0.1~5 MeV、投掷角范围为5°~90°的外辐射带电子时空变化过程的三维重构.通过对2018年8月期间外辐射带电子通量演化过程的重构,证实TDAMORE模型可以较好地重现不同能量和不同投掷角电子通量在磁暴前后的演化特征.通过分析电子通量的观测和同化结果之间的相关系数、平均误差、平均绝对误差和均方误差,发现对于能量低于4 MeV的电子,观测与同化结果之间的相关系数基本大于0.8且误差相对较低.而对于更高能量的电子,观测与同化结果之间的误差相对较高,这可能是同化模型忽略了电磁离子回旋波对电子的散射损失导致的.
