Climate change affects the activity of global and regional tropical cyclones(TCs).Among all TCs,typical super typhoons(STYs)are particularly devastating because they maintain their intensity when landing on the coast ...Climate change affects the activity of global and regional tropical cyclones(TCs).Among all TCs,typical super typhoons(STYs)are particularly devastating because they maintain their intensity when landing on the coast and thus cause casualties,economic losses,and environmental damage.Using a 3D tidal model,we reconstructed the typhoon(TY)wind field to simulate the storm surge induced by typical STYs.The TY activity was then analyzed using historical data.Results showed a downtrend of varying degrees in the annual frequency of STYs and TCs in the Western North Pacific(WNP)Basin,with a significant trend change observed for TCs from 1949 to 2021.A large difference in the interannual change in frequency was found between STYs and TCs in the WNP and Eastern China Sea(ECS).Along the coast of EC,the frequency of landfall TCs showed a weak downtrend,and the typical STYs showed reverse micro growth with peak activity in August.Zhejiang,Fujian,and Taiwan were highly vulnerable to the frontal hits of typical STYs.Affected by climate change,the average lifetime maximum intensity(LMI)locations and landfall locations of typical STYs in the ECS basin showed a significant poleward migration trend.In addition,the annual average LMI and accumulated cyclone energy showed an uptrend,indicating the increasing severity of the disaster risk.Affected by the typical STY activity in the ECS,the maximum storm surge area also showed poleward migration,and the coast of North China faced potential growth in high storm surge risks.展开更多
Super Typhoon Hinnamnor(2022)was a rare and unique western North Pacific typhoon,and throughout its lifespan,it exhibited all of the major features that pose current challenges in typhoon research.Specifically,during ...Super Typhoon Hinnamnor(2022)was a rare and unique western North Pacific typhoon,and throughout its lifespan,it exhibited all of the major features that pose current challenges in typhoon research.Specifically,during different stages of its lifespan,it experienced a sudden change of track,underwent rapid intensification,interacted and merged with another vortex,expanded in size,underwent rapid weakening,produced a strong cold wake,exhibited eyewall replacement,and underwent extratropical transition.Therefore,a timely identification and review of these features of Hinnamnor(2022),as reported in this article,will help update and enrich the case sets for each of these scientific issues and provide a background for more in-depth mechanistic studies of typhoon track,intensity,and structural changes in the future.We also believe that Hinnamnor(2022)can serve as an excellent benchmark to quickly evaluate the overall performance of different numerical models in predicting typhoon’s track,intensity,and structural changes.展开更多
To explore the nourishment effect and disaster reduction efficiency of a fully dissipative dry beach under the impact of storms,this paper uses the measured topography and hydrodynamic data to establish a one-dimensio...To explore the nourishment effect and disaster reduction efficiency of a fully dissipative dry beach under the impact of storms,this paper uses the measured topography and hydrodynamic data to establish a one-dimensional numerical model of the XBeach beach profile.By numerically modeling the change in the nourished profile for different dry beach widths under normal waves and storm conditions and the recovery process of the profile after the storm,the degree of response in dry beach nourishment for the fully dissipative beach is analyzed.The results show that under normal wave conditions,the response of the nourished dry beach is obvious.Sediment on the dry beach erodes heavily,and the shoreline moves landward over a long distance.With the increase in the width and size of the dry beach,the wave height at the bottom of the backshore profile decreases,the wave height attenuation rate increases continuously,and the wave elimination effect is remarkable.When the storm incident wave intensifies,the wave height attenuation rate of the nourished dry beach decreases,indicating that the smaller the storm intensity is,the more significant the wave reduction effect of the nourished dry beach is.At the same time,different profile arrangements of nourished dry beaches suffer from different degrees of erosion under storm conditions,with significant changes in profile morphology.With intensified storm action,the intensity of sediment erosion in the nourished dry beach increases,the nourishment is weakened,and the recovery effect of the profile after the storm is not obvious.The results of the numerical modeling highlight that the dry beach nourishment method can resist storms to a certain extent,but the overall effect is relatively limited.展开更多
The main hazard-causing factors of tropical cyclones are strong wind,heavy rainfall,and storm surge.Evaluation of the hazard-causing degree of a tropical cyclone requires a joint intensity analysis of these hazard-cau...The main hazard-causing factors of tropical cyclones are strong wind,heavy rainfall,and storm surge.Evaluation of the hazard-causing degree of a tropical cyclone requires a joint intensity analysis of these hazard-causing factors.According to the maximum hourly mean wind speed,total rainfall,and maximum tide level at various observation stations in Hong Kong during these tropical cyclones,three hazard-causing indices for tropical cyclones are introduced:the strong-wind index(VI),total-rainfall index(RI),and tide-level index(LI).Through a joint probability analysis of VI,RI,and LI for a tropical cyclone affecting Hong Kong,the joint return period is calculated to evaluate its joint hazard-causing intensity.A limit state function of Hong Kong’s resistance to tropical cyclones is developed and used to evaluate the regional risk of tropical cyclones affecting Hong Kong.The results indicate that the joint return period of VI,RI,and LI can reflect the joint hazard-causing intensity of strong wind,heavy rain,and storm surge caused by tropical cyclones;if the overall design return periods of the regional structures decrease,the regional ability to defend against tropical cyclone disasters is degraded.展开更多
Beach erosion has occurred globally in recent decades due to frequent and severe storms.Dongsha beach,located in Zhujiajian Island,Zhejiang Province,China,is a typical embayed sandy beach.This study focused on the mor...Beach erosion has occurred globally in recent decades due to frequent and severe storms.Dongsha beach,located in Zhujiajian Island,Zhejiang Province,China,is a typical embayed sandy beach.This study focused on the morphodynamic response of Dongsha beach to typhoon events,based on beach topographies and surficial sediment characteristics acquired before and after four typhoon events with varying intensities.The four typhoons had different effects on the topography and sediment characteristics of Dongsha beach.Typhoons Ampil and Danas caused the largest(-51.72 m3/m)and the smallest erosion(-8.01 m3/m),respectively.Remarkable alongshore patterns of beach profile volumetric changes were found after the four typhoon events,with more erosion in the southern and central parts of the beach and few changes in the northern part.Grain size coarsening and poor sorting were the main sediment patterns on the beach influenced by different typhoons.Typhoons that occurred in the same year after another typhoon enhanced the effect of the previous typhoon on sediment coarsening and sorting variability,but this cumulative effect was not found between typhoons that occurred during different years.A comparison of the collected data revealed that the topographic state of the beach before the typhoon,typhoon characteristics,and tidal conditions were possible reasons for the difference in the responses of Dongsha beach to typhoon events.More severe beach erosion was caused by typhoons with higher intensity levels and longer durations,and high tide levels during typhoons can determine the upper limit of the beach profile erosion site.Taken together,these results can be used to improve beach management for storm prevention.展开更多
A statistical analysis of the initial vortexes leading to tropical cyclone(TC)formation in the western North Pacific(WNP)is conducted with the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis data from 1999 to 2018.It is found that TCs in the W...A statistical analysis of the initial vortexes leading to tropical cyclone(TC)formation in the western North Pacific(WNP)is conducted with the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis data from 1999 to 2018.It is found that TCs in the WNP basically originate from three kinds of vortexes,i.e.,a mid-level vortex(MV),a low-level vortex(LV),and a relatively deep vortex with notable vorticity in both the lower and middle troposphere(DV).Among them,LV and DV account for 47.9%and 24.2%of tropical cyclogenesis events,respectively,while only 27.9%of TCs develop from the MV,which is much lower than that which occurs in the North Atlantic and eastern Pacific.Such a difference might be ascribed to the active monsoon systems in the WNP all year round.Due to the nearly upright structure of mid-level convergence in the early pre-genesis stage,TC genesis efficiency is the highest in DV.Compared with MV,LV generally takes a shorter time to intensify to a TC because of the higher humidity and the stronger low-level cyclonic circulation,which is related to air-sea interaction and boundary-layer convergence.Further examination of the relationship between tropical cyclogenesis and large-scale flow patterns indicate that the TC genesis events associated with LV are primarily related to the monsoon shear line,monsoon confluence region,and monsoon gyre,while those associated with MV are frequently connected with easterly waves and wave energy dispersion of preexisting TC.Compared with other flow patterns,tropical cyclones usually form and intensify faster in the monsoon confluence region.展开更多
台风引起的风暴增水严重影响沿海地区的生产生活,是造成经济损失最严重的海洋灾害之一。深圳市位于中国南海北部沿岸,是易受风暴潮灾害影响的区域,对深圳近海海域风暴潮开展研究不仅能够提升对风暴潮物理机制的认识,同时对沿海城市有效...台风引起的风暴增水严重影响沿海地区的生产生活,是造成经济损失最严重的海洋灾害之一。深圳市位于中国南海北部沿岸,是易受风暴潮灾害影响的区域,对深圳近海海域风暴潮开展研究不仅能够提升对风暴潮物理机制的认识,同时对沿海城市有效防灾减灾预警有重要意义。在风暴潮模拟研究过程中,台风气象场是风暴潮模拟准确与否的关键因素。本文针对深圳近海区域海洋环境,以海流模型FVCOM(finite volume community ocean model)和海浪模型SWAN(simulation wave nearshore)为基础,建立了区域风暴潮–波浪耦合模型,分别用再分析气象数据(European center for medium weather forecasting,ECMWF)、理想台风模型(Holland)及大气模型台风模拟结果(weather research and forecast,WRF)作为驱动场条件,对台风“山竹”期间的风暴潮过程进行模拟。结果表明:分辨率较低的ECMWF再分析气象数据难以准确体现台风水平结构,从而导致模拟误差;Holland气象场在整体上能够对台风“山竹”进行准确模拟,但无法再现台风在近岸区域的结构形变,从而导致在蛇口及附近(深圳湾,珠江口内侧)区域的风暴潮模拟水位偏高;WRF对风速、气压、水位、波浪都有较好的模拟效果,且WRF很好的改善了Holland在靠近台风登陆点的区域风暴潮水位偏高的问题,对珠江口、深圳湾区域定量改进约20%~30%。在未来的风暴潮预报中,如果采用类似于Holland这样的理想台风场,需注意上述区域的模拟结果。此外,Holland理想台风场和WRF模型结果驱动下的波浪场模拟效果都较好。展开更多
基金supported by four funds,including the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2022YFC3106102)the Marine Science and Technology Innovation Project of Jiangsu Province(Nos.JSZRH YKJ202105,JSZRHYKI202303)+1 种基金the Nantong Social and Livelihood Science and Technology Project(Nos.MS12022009,MS22022082,MS22022083)the Project on Excellent Post-Graduate Dissertation of Hohai University(No.422003470).
文摘Climate change affects the activity of global and regional tropical cyclones(TCs).Among all TCs,typical super typhoons(STYs)are particularly devastating because they maintain their intensity when landing on the coast and thus cause casualties,economic losses,and environmental damage.Using a 3D tidal model,we reconstructed the typhoon(TY)wind field to simulate the storm surge induced by typical STYs.The TY activity was then analyzed using historical data.Results showed a downtrend of varying degrees in the annual frequency of STYs and TCs in the Western North Pacific(WNP)Basin,with a significant trend change observed for TCs from 1949 to 2021.A large difference in the interannual change in frequency was found between STYs and TCs in the WNP and Eastern China Sea(ECS).Along the coast of EC,the frequency of landfall TCs showed a weak downtrend,and the typical STYs showed reverse micro growth with peak activity in August.Zhejiang,Fujian,and Taiwan were highly vulnerable to the frontal hits of typical STYs.Affected by climate change,the average lifetime maximum intensity(LMI)locations and landfall locations of typical STYs in the ECS basin showed a significant poleward migration trend.In addition,the annual average LMI and accumulated cyclone energy showed an uptrend,indicating the increasing severity of the disaster risk.Affected by the typical STY activity in the ECS,the maximum storm surge area also showed poleward migration,and the coast of North China faced potential growth in high storm surge risks.
基金supported in part by the National Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42192554, 41876011, 61827901, and 41775065)the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant Nos. 2020YFE0201900 and 2022YFC3004200)+2 种基金Shanghai Typhoon Research Foundation (TFJJ202201)S&T Development Fund of CAMS 2022KJ012Basic Research Fund of CAMS 2022Y006
文摘Super Typhoon Hinnamnor(2022)was a rare and unique western North Pacific typhoon,and throughout its lifespan,it exhibited all of the major features that pose current challenges in typhoon research.Specifically,during different stages of its lifespan,it experienced a sudden change of track,underwent rapid intensification,interacted and merged with another vortex,expanded in size,underwent rapid weakening,produced a strong cold wake,exhibited eyewall replacement,and underwent extratropical transition.Therefore,a timely identification and review of these features of Hinnamnor(2022),as reported in this article,will help update and enrich the case sets for each of these scientific issues and provide a background for more in-depth mechanistic studies of typhoon track,intensity,and structural changes in the future.We also believe that Hinnamnor(2022)can serve as an excellent benchmark to quickly evaluate the overall performance of different numerical models in predicting typhoon’s track,intensity,and structural changes.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.41930538the Scientific Research Foundation of the Third Institute of Oceanography,Ministry of Natural Resources under contract No.2022017。
文摘To explore the nourishment effect and disaster reduction efficiency of a fully dissipative dry beach under the impact of storms,this paper uses the measured topography and hydrodynamic data to establish a one-dimensional numerical model of the XBeach beach profile.By numerically modeling the change in the nourished profile for different dry beach widths under normal waves and storm conditions and the recovery process of the profile after the storm,the degree of response in dry beach nourishment for the fully dissipative beach is analyzed.The results show that under normal wave conditions,the response of the nourished dry beach is obvious.Sediment on the dry beach erodes heavily,and the shoreline moves landward over a long distance.With the increase in the width and size of the dry beach,the wave height at the bottom of the backshore profile decreases,the wave height attenuation rate increases continuously,and the wave elimination effect is remarkable.When the storm incident wave intensifies,the wave height attenuation rate of the nourished dry beach decreases,indicating that the smaller the storm intensity is,the more significant the wave reduction effect of the nourished dry beach is.At the same time,different profile arrangements of nourished dry beaches suffer from different degrees of erosion under storm conditions,with significant changes in profile morphology.With intensified storm action,the intensity of sediment erosion in the nourished dry beach increases,the nourishment is weakened,and the recovery effect of the profile after the storm is not obvious.The results of the numerical modeling highlight that the dry beach nourishment method can resist storms to a certain extent,but the overall effect is relatively limited.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China—Shandong Joint Fund under contract No.U1706226the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.52171284。
文摘The main hazard-causing factors of tropical cyclones are strong wind,heavy rainfall,and storm surge.Evaluation of the hazard-causing degree of a tropical cyclone requires a joint intensity analysis of these hazard-causing factors.According to the maximum hourly mean wind speed,total rainfall,and maximum tide level at various observation stations in Hong Kong during these tropical cyclones,three hazard-causing indices for tropical cyclones are introduced:the strong-wind index(VI),total-rainfall index(RI),and tide-level index(LI).Through a joint probability analysis of VI,RI,and LI for a tropical cyclone affecting Hong Kong,the joint return period is calculated to evaluate its joint hazard-causing intensity.A limit state function of Hong Kong’s resistance to tropical cyclones is developed and used to evaluate the regional risk of tropical cyclones affecting Hong Kong.The results indicate that the joint return period of VI,RI,and LI can reflect the joint hazard-causing intensity of strong wind,heavy rain,and storm surge caused by tropical cyclones;if the overall design return periods of the regional structures decrease,the regional ability to defend against tropical cyclone disasters is degraded.
基金The Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.LHZ22D060001the Scientific Research Funds of the Second Institute of Oceanography,Ministry of Natural Resources under contract Nos JG2315 and XRJH2309the National Key R&D Program of China under contract No.2022YFC3106200.
文摘Beach erosion has occurred globally in recent decades due to frequent and severe storms.Dongsha beach,located in Zhujiajian Island,Zhejiang Province,China,is a typical embayed sandy beach.This study focused on the morphodynamic response of Dongsha beach to typhoon events,based on beach topographies and surficial sediment characteristics acquired before and after four typhoon events with varying intensities.The four typhoons had different effects on the topography and sediment characteristics of Dongsha beach.Typhoons Ampil and Danas caused the largest(-51.72 m3/m)and the smallest erosion(-8.01 m3/m),respectively.Remarkable alongshore patterns of beach profile volumetric changes were found after the four typhoon events,with more erosion in the southern and central parts of the beach and few changes in the northern part.Grain size coarsening and poor sorting were the main sediment patterns on the beach influenced by different typhoons.Typhoons that occurred in the same year after another typhoon enhanced the effect of the previous typhoon on sediment coarsening and sorting variability,but this cumulative effect was not found between typhoons that occurred during different years.A comparison of the collected data revealed that the topographic state of the beach before the typhoon,typhoon characteristics,and tidal conditions were possible reasons for the difference in the responses of Dongsha beach to typhoon events.More severe beach erosion was caused by typhoons with higher intensity levels and longer durations,and high tide levels during typhoons can determine the upper limit of the beach profile erosion site.Taken together,these results can be used to improve beach management for storm prevention.
基金supported in part by the Nature Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.41875046,42175004National Key Research and Development Program of China under Grant No.2017YFC1501601Shanghai“Science and Technology Innovation Action Plan”Yangtze River Delta Science and Technology Innovation Community Field Project Grant 21002410200。
文摘A statistical analysis of the initial vortexes leading to tropical cyclone(TC)formation in the western North Pacific(WNP)is conducted with the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis data from 1999 to 2018.It is found that TCs in the WNP basically originate from three kinds of vortexes,i.e.,a mid-level vortex(MV),a low-level vortex(LV),and a relatively deep vortex with notable vorticity in both the lower and middle troposphere(DV).Among them,LV and DV account for 47.9%and 24.2%of tropical cyclogenesis events,respectively,while only 27.9%of TCs develop from the MV,which is much lower than that which occurs in the North Atlantic and eastern Pacific.Such a difference might be ascribed to the active monsoon systems in the WNP all year round.Due to the nearly upright structure of mid-level convergence in the early pre-genesis stage,TC genesis efficiency is the highest in DV.Compared with MV,LV generally takes a shorter time to intensify to a TC because of the higher humidity and the stronger low-level cyclonic circulation,which is related to air-sea interaction and boundary-layer convergence.Further examination of the relationship between tropical cyclogenesis and large-scale flow patterns indicate that the TC genesis events associated with LV are primarily related to the monsoon shear line,monsoon confluence region,and monsoon gyre,while those associated with MV are frequently connected with easterly waves and wave energy dispersion of preexisting TC.Compared with other flow patterns,tropical cyclones usually form and intensify faster in the monsoon confluence region.
文摘台风引起的风暴增水严重影响沿海地区的生产生活,是造成经济损失最严重的海洋灾害之一。深圳市位于中国南海北部沿岸,是易受风暴潮灾害影响的区域,对深圳近海海域风暴潮开展研究不仅能够提升对风暴潮物理机制的认识,同时对沿海城市有效防灾减灾预警有重要意义。在风暴潮模拟研究过程中,台风气象场是风暴潮模拟准确与否的关键因素。本文针对深圳近海区域海洋环境,以海流模型FVCOM(finite volume community ocean model)和海浪模型SWAN(simulation wave nearshore)为基础,建立了区域风暴潮–波浪耦合模型,分别用再分析气象数据(European center for medium weather forecasting,ECMWF)、理想台风模型(Holland)及大气模型台风模拟结果(weather research and forecast,WRF)作为驱动场条件,对台风“山竹”期间的风暴潮过程进行模拟。结果表明:分辨率较低的ECMWF再分析气象数据难以准确体现台风水平结构,从而导致模拟误差;Holland气象场在整体上能够对台风“山竹”进行准确模拟,但无法再现台风在近岸区域的结构形变,从而导致在蛇口及附近(深圳湾,珠江口内侧)区域的风暴潮模拟水位偏高;WRF对风速、气压、水位、波浪都有较好的模拟效果,且WRF很好的改善了Holland在靠近台风登陆点的区域风暴潮水位偏高的问题,对珠江口、深圳湾区域定量改进约20%~30%。在未来的风暴潮预报中,如果采用类似于Holland这样的理想台风场,需注意上述区域的模拟结果。此外,Holland理想台风场和WRF模型结果驱动下的波浪场模拟效果都较好。
