Babies react to changes in the characteristics of objects,presenting haptic recognition after a period of familiarization.We aimed to verify if infants responded to the different spatial orientations of an ergonomic p...Babies react to changes in the characteristics of objects,presenting haptic recognition after a period of familiarization.We aimed to verify if infants responded to the different spatial orientations of an ergonomic pacifier in the mouth.With informed consent,10 babies(271.6±60.8 days),users of ergonomic pacifiers,revealed motor behaviors that were divisible into three categories,sometimes through successive actions(i.e.,perception-action cycles were present):(i)repositioned correctly the pacifier,through different modes;(ii)repositioned it,but incorrectly,through different modes;and(iii)rejected the pacifier.So,these babies detected the incorrect position of the pacifier,and acted according to the principle of motor equivalence,since they implemented variations of a solution for the same need.展开更多
Innovation in forestry education is needed to address changing contexts of the positionality of forests.This is particularly signifi cant in the Asia–Pacifi c region,where deforestation and degradation are high.Howev...Innovation in forestry education is needed to address changing contexts of the positionality of forests.This is particularly signifi cant in the Asia–Pacifi c region,where deforestation and degradation are high.However,the accessibility of high-quality forestry education to address changing regional and global contexts is lacking.A series of innovative sustainable forest management(SFM)open education resource(OER)courses were developed and implemented to improve the accessibility of SFM education to enhance teaching quality,curriculum,and research capacity of universities in the Asia-Pacifi c Region.To evaluate the SFM-OER program in terms of student experiences,this study investigated student achievement,perceived success of the pedagogical approach and instructional design,and perceived eff ectiveness of the learning activities in promoting active and transformative learning through the assessment of a 1,191-course feedback survey between 2018 and 2020,including the global pandemic.This study revealed that the program attracted diverse student demographics,including a higher proportion of female students majoring in forestry,ecology,and other environmental studies.Their primary motivation to participate in the courses was to gain international experience,followed by the fl exibility of online learning,mandatory course requirements,and earning course credits.Students were satisfi ed with the Canvas learning management system.Most students spent less than 5 to 10 h of their weekly time in the course and agreed or strongly agreed that the workloads were manageable.Students refl ected positively on various learning activities and assignments,such as watching lecture videos,taking quizzes,reading and summarizing,having discussions,and peer review writing.However,they did not clearly prefer specifi c learning activities,signifying the importance of using diverse learning activities to satisfy diverse individual learning styles in online settings.This analysis contributes to the further development of student-centered pedagogical development for online learning and provides insight into the ways forward for online higher forestry education,while repurposing existing OER courses in a post-Covid-19 era.展开更多
Objective: The present study was conducted to evaluate the risk factors that reduce the rate of breastfeeding among Iranian women in the first six months after delivery. Materials and Methods: This cross sectional stu...Objective: The present study was conducted to evaluate the risk factors that reduce the rate of breastfeeding among Iranian women in the first six months after delivery. Materials and Methods: This cross sectional study was performed on 542 mothers with infants less than six months old who came to Taleghani Hospital, Tehran, Iran, for vaccination follow up, from 2012 to 2014. Trained examiners filled a predesigned questionnaire including information about breastfeeding and factors that may affect the mode of infant feeding. The results were analyzed using SPSS software. Results: Out of 542 breastfeeding infants 53.2% were female;the average birth weight was 3217 ± 40 gr and 57.7% were first born. The age of mothers was from 17 to 43 years with the average of 27.7 ± 4.9. Among mothers 58.1% had a high school diploma or less education and 41.9% had higher education. The rate of cesarean section was 62.2%. The rate of breastfeeding showed a reducing trend from the first month after birth to the sixth month: 91.7% of mothers reported breastfeeding in the first month which was reduced to 70.1% in the sixth month. Multivariate analysis using logistic regression analysis showed the risk factors reducing the rate of breastfeeding as follow: use of pacifier (P 0.000, OR = 3.695, CI<sub>95%</sub> = 2.460 - 5.553), cesarean section delivery (p 0.000, OR = 2.717, CI<sub>95%</sub> = 1.690 - 4.369), lack of breastfeeding training (P = 0.004, OR = 2.347, CI<sub>95%</sub> = 1.354 - 4.063), and mothers’ higher education (P = 0.029, OR = 1.614, CI<sub>95%</sub> = 1.014 - 2.569). Conclusion: Use of pacifiers, cesarean section, lack of breastfeeding training, and mothers’ higher education were the risk factors for reduced breastfeeding among Iranian mothers.展开更多
Increasing numbers of approaches to assess eutrophication, such as estuarine trophic status, the Oslo-Paris Commission Common Procedure, and the Water Framework Directive, focus on the symptoms of eutrophication. In C...Increasing numbers of approaches to assess eutrophication, such as estuarine trophic status, the Oslo-Paris Commission Common Procedure, and the Water Framework Directive, focus on the symptoms of eutrophication. In China, however, nutrient index methods dominate the assessment of coastal waters. In this study, an integrated method that includes both water quality and ecological response was compared with the Northwest Pacifi c Action Plan (NOWPAP) Common Procedure. Observation data from Jiaozhou Bay, Shandong, China, were used in a comparison of the two methods in a trophic status study. Overall, both clearly revealed a high level of nutrient enrichment in the bay, indicated by high nutrient concentrations. Though the two methods diff ered in their methodological design in the assessment of the ecological eff ects of nutrient enrichment, they have acquired similar results: the integrated method suggested that the status was good, and the NOWPAP Common Procedure suggested that the status was low (indicating that the bay had no serious eutrophication problem). The introduction of fi lter feeders (shellfi sh aquaculture) into the bay on a reasonable scale may have been eff ective in mitigating eutrophic conditions, and perhaps explains the low ecological impacts there. Our results will be useful to ecosystem-based eutrophication management in the bay and in similar areas.展开更多
Subsurface eddies(SSEs)are common features of the ocean interior.They are particularly abundant in oceanic basins and the vicinity of major intermediate water outfl ows.They are responsible for subsurface transport of...Subsurface eddies(SSEs)are common features of the ocean interior.They are particularly abundant in oceanic basins and the vicinity of major intermediate water outfl ows.They are responsible for subsurface transport of mass,heat,and salt.Analysis of high-resolution general circulation model data has revealed the existence of subsurface anticyclonic eddies(SSAEs)and subsurface cyclonic eddies(SSCEs)in the northwestern tropical Pacifi c Ocean.SSEs are abundant east of the Philippines(0°–22°N,120°E–140°E)and in latitude bands between 9°N–17°N east of 140°E.The composite structure of SSEs was investigated.SSEs had a core at about 400-m water depth and their maximum meridional velocity exceeded 10 cm/s.They exhibited two cores with diff erent salinity polarities in the surface and subsurface.Additionally,spatial distributions of heat transport induced by SSEs in the northwestern tropical Pacifi c were presented for the fi rst time.A net equatorward heat fl ux toward a temperature up-gradient was observed.The analysis of eddy-mean fl ow interactions revealed that the circulation is baroclinically and barotropically unstable at diff erent depths and to diff ering degrees.The energy conversions suggest that both barotropic and baroclinic instabilities are responsible for SSE generation east of the Philippines,whereas baroclinic instability caused by a horizontal density gradient and vertical eddy heat fl ux are important between 9°N and 17°N east of 140°E.Meridional movement of the north equatorial current and the north equatorial undercurrent can contribute to SSE generation in our study region.展开更多
The dimensional and temporal distribution of Antarctic Intermediate Water(AAIW)and North Pacifi c Intermediate Water(NPIW)in the Philippine Sea were explored using Argo profi les and gridded Argo data.As the salinity ...The dimensional and temporal distribution of Antarctic Intermediate Water(AAIW)and North Pacifi c Intermediate Water(NPIW)in the Philippine Sea were explored using Argo profi les and gridded Argo data.As the salinity minimum of intermediate water from mid-high latitude of the southern and northern hemisphere of the Pacifi c Ocean,the properties of AAIW and NPIW merge at about 10°N with diff erent properties in the Philippine Sea.The core of AAIW is located below 600 dbar with potential density of 27≤σθ≤27.3 kg/m 3 and salinity of 34.5≤S≤34.55.The core of NPIW is located between 300–700 dbar with potential density of 26.2≤σθ≤27 kg/m 3 and salinity of 34≤S≤34.4.The volume of AAIW and NPIW during January 2004 to December 2017 is negatively correlated.The time series of AAIW and NPIW is dominated by signifi cant periods of 6 and 8 months,respectively.The variations of AAIW and NPIW are mainly aff ected by volume transport through a 130°E section by the North Equatorial Current(NEC)and North Equatorial Undercurrent(NEUC).展开更多
An eddy-resolving four-dimensional variational(adjoint)data assimilation and state estimate was constructed for the low-to mid-latitude Pacifi c,Indian Oceans,and South China Sea based on the framework of“Estimating ...An eddy-resolving four-dimensional variational(adjoint)data assimilation and state estimate was constructed for the low-to mid-latitude Pacifi c,Indian Oceans,and South China Sea based on the framework of“Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Oceans(ECCO)”.It is named as the Two Oceans One Sea State Estimate(TOOSSE).It fi ts a model to a number of modern observations of 2015-2016,including the Argo fl oat temperature and salinity,satellite altimetric sea surface anomalies,by adjusting initial temperature and salinity,sea surface boundary conditions,and background diapycnal diff usivities.In total,~50%of the original model-data misfi ts have been eliminated,and the estimated state agreed well with a variety of independent observations at meso-to large scales,and on the intra-seasonal to interannual timescales.Mesoscale variability is systematically strengthened in TOOSSE and closer to observations than that without data assimilation,which is especially evidenced by the improved simulation of the mesoscale tropical instability waves(TIWs).Adjustments to ocean surface forcing parameters exhibit both large and frontal/mesoscale structures,and the magnitude reach 20%-100%of the fi rst guesses;the adjustments to diapycnal diff usivity exhibit an obvious elevation(decrement)in(below)the thermocline in the equatorial band.The results indicate that TOOSSE represents a dynamically and thermodynamically consistent ocean state estimate of the 2015-2016 Indo-Pacifi c Ocean,and can be widely utilized for regional process studies.展开更多
Ophiopholis mirabilis is a common species with a high population density on the western coasts of the northern Pacifi c Ocean.The number of O.mirabilis has been increasing recently in the scallop aquaculture zone(the ...Ophiopholis mirabilis is a common species with a high population density on the western coasts of the northern Pacifi c Ocean.The number of O.mirabilis has been increasing recently in the scallop aquaculture zone(the Zhangzi Island area,northern Yellow Sea)in China.To explore the mechanism of its population variation,the reproductive cycle of O.mirabilis was investigated in this area(39°04′N;122°51′E)from February 2017 through January 2018 and determined by the monthly gonad index(GI),histological examinations of the gonads and the oocyte size-frequency distribution.O.mirabilis had a clear annual reproductive cycle that was synchronous between males and females.Sea temperature and food availability played important roles in O.mirabilis reproduction.The GI value was less reliable for determining reproductive activity in O.mirabilis because the nutritive tissues within the gonads may be utilized to synthesize gametes,leading to a decrease in GI during maturation.The histological results also show that abundant nutritive phagocytes were present in the gonads of O.mirabilis,which,together with the germ cells,aff ected the weight of the gonads.In addition,the mature oocytes of O.mirabilis were relatively small(75–150μm),indicating that the larval development was planktotrophic.This study provided insights into the reproductive patterns and biology of O.mirabilis and is an essential basis for the quantity control of this species in aquaculture areas.展开更多
This paper assesses published findings on projections of future tropical cyclone(TC)activity in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Region under climate change scenarios.This assessment also estimates the projected change...This paper assesses published findings on projections of future tropical cyclone(TC)activity in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Region under climate change scenarios.This assessment also estimates the projected changes of key TC metrics for a 2℃anthropogenic global warming scenario for the western North Pacific(WNP)following the approach of a WMO Task Team,together with other reported findings for this region.For projections of TC genesis/frequency,most models suggest a reduction of TC frequency,but an increase in the proportion of very intense TCs over the WNP in the future.However,some individual studies project an increase in WNP TC frequency.Most studies agree on a projected increase of WNP TC intensity over the 21 st century.All available projections for TC related precipitation in the WNP indicate an increase in TC related precipitation rate in a warmer climate.Anthropogenic warming may also lead to changes in TC prevailing tracks.A further increase in storm surge risk may result from increases in TC intensity.The most confident aspect of forced anthropogenic change in TC inundation risk derives from the highly confident expectation of further sea level rise,which we expect will exacerbate storm inundation risk in coastal regions,assuming all other factors equal.展开更多
文摘Babies react to changes in the characteristics of objects,presenting haptic recognition after a period of familiarization.We aimed to verify if infants responded to the different spatial orientations of an ergonomic pacifier in the mouth.With informed consent,10 babies(271.6±60.8 days),users of ergonomic pacifiers,revealed motor behaviors that were divisible into three categories,sometimes through successive actions(i.e.,perception-action cycles were present):(i)repositioned correctly the pacifier,through different modes;(ii)repositioned it,but incorrectly,through different modes;and(iii)rejected the pacifier.So,these babies detected the incorrect position of the pacifier,and acted according to the principle of motor equivalence,since they implemented variations of a solution for the same need.
基金Asia-Pacifi c Network for Sustainable Forest Management and Rehabilitation SFM-ORE-2018。
文摘Innovation in forestry education is needed to address changing contexts of the positionality of forests.This is particularly signifi cant in the Asia–Pacifi c region,where deforestation and degradation are high.However,the accessibility of high-quality forestry education to address changing regional and global contexts is lacking.A series of innovative sustainable forest management(SFM)open education resource(OER)courses were developed and implemented to improve the accessibility of SFM education to enhance teaching quality,curriculum,and research capacity of universities in the Asia-Pacifi c Region.To evaluate the SFM-OER program in terms of student experiences,this study investigated student achievement,perceived success of the pedagogical approach and instructional design,and perceived eff ectiveness of the learning activities in promoting active and transformative learning through the assessment of a 1,191-course feedback survey between 2018 and 2020,including the global pandemic.This study revealed that the program attracted diverse student demographics,including a higher proportion of female students majoring in forestry,ecology,and other environmental studies.Their primary motivation to participate in the courses was to gain international experience,followed by the fl exibility of online learning,mandatory course requirements,and earning course credits.Students were satisfi ed with the Canvas learning management system.Most students spent less than 5 to 10 h of their weekly time in the course and agreed or strongly agreed that the workloads were manageable.Students refl ected positively on various learning activities and assignments,such as watching lecture videos,taking quizzes,reading and summarizing,having discussions,and peer review writing.However,they did not clearly prefer specifi c learning activities,signifying the importance of using diverse learning activities to satisfy diverse individual learning styles in online settings.This analysis contributes to the further development of student-centered pedagogical development for online learning and provides insight into the ways forward for online higher forestry education,while repurposing existing OER courses in a post-Covid-19 era.
文摘Objective: The present study was conducted to evaluate the risk factors that reduce the rate of breastfeeding among Iranian women in the first six months after delivery. Materials and Methods: This cross sectional study was performed on 542 mothers with infants less than six months old who came to Taleghani Hospital, Tehran, Iran, for vaccination follow up, from 2012 to 2014. Trained examiners filled a predesigned questionnaire including information about breastfeeding and factors that may affect the mode of infant feeding. The results were analyzed using SPSS software. Results: Out of 542 breastfeeding infants 53.2% were female;the average birth weight was 3217 ± 40 gr and 57.7% were first born. The age of mothers was from 17 to 43 years with the average of 27.7 ± 4.9. Among mothers 58.1% had a high school diploma or less education and 41.9% had higher education. The rate of cesarean section was 62.2%. The rate of breastfeeding showed a reducing trend from the first month after birth to the sixth month: 91.7% of mothers reported breastfeeding in the first month which was reduced to 70.1% in the sixth month. Multivariate analysis using logistic regression analysis showed the risk factors reducing the rate of breastfeeding as follow: use of pacifier (P 0.000, OR = 3.695, CI<sub>95%</sub> = 2.460 - 5.553), cesarean section delivery (p 0.000, OR = 2.717, CI<sub>95%</sub> = 1.690 - 4.369), lack of breastfeeding training (P = 0.004, OR = 2.347, CI<sub>95%</sub> = 1.354 - 4.063), and mothers’ higher education (P = 0.029, OR = 1.614, CI<sub>95%</sub> = 1.014 - 2.569). Conclusion: Use of pacifiers, cesarean section, lack of breastfeeding training, and mothers’ higher education were the risk factors for reduced breastfeeding among Iranian mothers.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2016YFE0101500)the Aoshan Talents Cultivation Program(No.2017ASTCP-OS16)+1 种基金the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2017YFC1404306)the NSFC-Shandong Joint Fund for the Marine Science Research Center(No.U1606404)
文摘Increasing numbers of approaches to assess eutrophication, such as estuarine trophic status, the Oslo-Paris Commission Common Procedure, and the Water Framework Directive, focus on the symptoms of eutrophication. In China, however, nutrient index methods dominate the assessment of coastal waters. In this study, an integrated method that includes both water quality and ecological response was compared with the Northwest Pacifi c Action Plan (NOWPAP) Common Procedure. Observation data from Jiaozhou Bay, Shandong, China, were used in a comparison of the two methods in a trophic status study. Overall, both clearly revealed a high level of nutrient enrichment in the bay, indicated by high nutrient concentrations. Though the two methods diff ered in their methodological design in the assessment of the ecological eff ects of nutrient enrichment, they have acquired similar results: the integrated method suggested that the status was good, and the NOWPAP Common Procedure suggested that the status was low (indicating that the bay had no serious eutrophication problem). The introduction of fi lter feeders (shellfi sh aquaculture) into the bay on a reasonable scale may have been eff ective in mitigating eutrophic conditions, and perhaps explains the low ecological impacts there. Our results will be useful to ecosystem-based eutrophication management in the bay and in similar areas.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Plan(Nos.2016YFC1400505SQ,2017YFSF070166)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41676005)the NSFC Innovative Group(No.41421005),the CAS“Huiquan Scholar”,and the CAS Youth Innovation Promotion Association。
文摘Subsurface eddies(SSEs)are common features of the ocean interior.They are particularly abundant in oceanic basins and the vicinity of major intermediate water outfl ows.They are responsible for subsurface transport of mass,heat,and salt.Analysis of high-resolution general circulation model data has revealed the existence of subsurface anticyclonic eddies(SSAEs)and subsurface cyclonic eddies(SSCEs)in the northwestern tropical Pacifi c Ocean.SSEs are abundant east of the Philippines(0°–22°N,120°E–140°E)and in latitude bands between 9°N–17°N east of 140°E.The composite structure of SSEs was investigated.SSEs had a core at about 400-m water depth and their maximum meridional velocity exceeded 10 cm/s.They exhibited two cores with diff erent salinity polarities in the surface and subsurface.Additionally,spatial distributions of heat transport induced by SSEs in the northwestern tropical Pacifi c were presented for the fi rst time.A net equatorward heat fl ux toward a temperature up-gradient was observed.The analysis of eddy-mean fl ow interactions revealed that the circulation is baroclinically and barotropically unstable at diff erent depths and to diff ering degrees.The energy conversions suggest that both barotropic and baroclinic instabilities are responsible for SSE generation east of the Philippines,whereas baroclinic instability caused by a horizontal density gradient and vertical eddy heat fl ux are important between 9°N and 17°N east of 140°E.Meridional movement of the north equatorial current and the north equatorial undercurrent can contribute to SSE generation in our study region.
基金Supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2016YFC1401702)the National Program on Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction(No.GASI-IPOVAI-01-01)+3 种基金the State Key Program of National Natural Science of China(No.41730534)the NSFC Innovative Group Grant(No.41421005)the NSFC-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers(No.U1406401)ZANG Nan and WANG Fan.Janet SPRINTALL was supported by NOAA’s Climate Program Offi ce,Climate Variability and Predictability Program(No.NA17OAR4310257)。
文摘The dimensional and temporal distribution of Antarctic Intermediate Water(AAIW)and North Pacifi c Intermediate Water(NPIW)in the Philippine Sea were explored using Argo profi les and gridded Argo data.As the salinity minimum of intermediate water from mid-high latitude of the southern and northern hemisphere of the Pacifi c Ocean,the properties of AAIW and NPIW merge at about 10°N with diff erent properties in the Philippine Sea.The core of AAIW is located below 600 dbar with potential density of 27≤σθ≤27.3 kg/m 3 and salinity of 34.5≤S≤34.55.The core of NPIW is located between 300–700 dbar with potential density of 26.2≤σθ≤27 kg/m 3 and salinity of 34≤S≤34.4.The volume of AAIW and NPIW during January 2004 to December 2017 is negatively correlated.The time series of AAIW and NPIW is dominated by signifi cant periods of 6 and 8 months,respectively.The variations of AAIW and NPIW are mainly aff ected by volume transport through a 130°E section by the North Equatorial Current(NEC)and North Equatorial Undercurrent(NEUC).
基金Supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2016YFC1401703)the Strategic Priority Research Program of CAS(No.XDB42000000)+2 种基金the Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences of CAS(No.QYZDB-SSW-DQC030)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41976012,41730534,41806015,Y72143101B)the Aoshan Talents Program by the QNML(No.2017ASTCPES03)。
文摘An eddy-resolving four-dimensional variational(adjoint)data assimilation and state estimate was constructed for the low-to mid-latitude Pacifi c,Indian Oceans,and South China Sea based on the framework of“Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Oceans(ECCO)”.It is named as the Two Oceans One Sea State Estimate(TOOSSE).It fi ts a model to a number of modern observations of 2015-2016,including the Argo fl oat temperature and salinity,satellite altimetric sea surface anomalies,by adjusting initial temperature and salinity,sea surface boundary conditions,and background diapycnal diff usivities.In total,~50%of the original model-data misfi ts have been eliminated,and the estimated state agreed well with a variety of independent observations at meso-to large scales,and on the intra-seasonal to interannual timescales.Mesoscale variability is systematically strengthened in TOOSSE and closer to observations than that without data assimilation,which is especially evidenced by the improved simulation of the mesoscale tropical instability waves(TIWs).Adjustments to ocean surface forcing parameters exhibit both large and frontal/mesoscale structures,and the magnitude reach 20%-100%of the fi rst guesses;the adjustments to diapycnal diff usivity exhibit an obvious elevation(decrement)in(below)the thermocline in the equatorial band.The results indicate that TOOSSE represents a dynamically and thermodynamically consistent ocean state estimate of the 2015-2016 Indo-Pacifi c Ocean,and can be widely utilized for regional process studies.
基金Supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Nos.XDA23050501,XDA19060201)the Key Program for International S&T Cooperation Projects:Sino-Australian Center for Healthy Coasts(No.2016YFE0101500)+1 种基金the Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Ecology and Environmental Sciences(No.U1606404)the Taishan Scholars Project to SUN Song。
文摘Ophiopholis mirabilis is a common species with a high population density on the western coasts of the northern Pacifi c Ocean.The number of O.mirabilis has been increasing recently in the scallop aquaculture zone(the Zhangzi Island area,northern Yellow Sea)in China.To explore the mechanism of its population variation,the reproductive cycle of O.mirabilis was investigated in this area(39°04′N;122°51′E)from February 2017 through January 2018 and determined by the monthly gonad index(GI),histological examinations of the gonads and the oocyte size-frequency distribution.O.mirabilis had a clear annual reproductive cycle that was synchronous between males and females.Sea temperature and food availability played important roles in O.mirabilis reproduction.The GI value was less reliable for determining reproductive activity in O.mirabilis because the nutritive tissues within the gonads may be utilized to synthesize gametes,leading to a decrease in GI during maturation.The histological results also show that abundant nutritive phagocytes were present in the gonads of O.mirabilis,which,together with the germ cells,aff ected the weight of the gonads.In addition,the mature oocytes of O.mirabilis were relatively small(75–150μm),indicating that the larval development was planktotrophic.This study provided insights into the reproductive patterns and biology of O.mirabilis and is an essential basis for the quantity control of this species in aquaculture areas.
基金sponsored by the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Operating Project
文摘This paper assesses published findings on projections of future tropical cyclone(TC)activity in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Region under climate change scenarios.This assessment also estimates the projected changes of key TC metrics for a 2℃anthropogenic global warming scenario for the western North Pacific(WNP)following the approach of a WMO Task Team,together with other reported findings for this region.For projections of TC genesis/frequency,most models suggest a reduction of TC frequency,but an increase in the proportion of very intense TCs over the WNP in the future.However,some individual studies project an increase in WNP TC frequency.Most studies agree on a projected increase of WNP TC intensity over the 21 st century.All available projections for TC related precipitation in the WNP indicate an increase in TC related precipitation rate in a warmer climate.Anthropogenic warming may also lead to changes in TC prevailing tracks.A further increase in storm surge risk may result from increases in TC intensity.The most confident aspect of forced anthropogenic change in TC inundation risk derives from the highly confident expectation of further sea level rise,which we expect will exacerbate storm inundation risk in coastal regions,assuming all other factors equal.
