The paper describes a closed-loop system identification procedure for hybrid continuous-time Box–Jenkins models and demonstrates how it can be used for IMC based PID controller tuning. An instrumental variable algori...The paper describes a closed-loop system identification procedure for hybrid continuous-time Box–Jenkins models and demonstrates how it can be used for IMC based PID controller tuning. An instrumental variable algorithm is used to identify hybrid continuous-time transfer function models of the Box–Jenkins form from discretetime prefiltered data, where the process model is a continuous-time transfer function, while the noise is represented as a discrete-time ARMA process. A novel penalized maximum-likelihood approach is used for estimating the discrete-time ARMA process and a circulatory noise elimination identification method is employed to estimate process model. The input–output data of a process are affected by additive circulatory noise in a closedloop. The noise-free input–output data of the process are obtained using the proposed method by removing these circulatory noise components. The process model can be achieved by using instrumental variable estimation method with prefiltered noise-free input–output data. The performance of the proposed hybrid parameter estimation scheme is evaluated by the Monte Carlo simulation analysis. Simulation results illustrate the efficacy of the proposed procedure. The methodology has been successfully applied in tuning of IMC based flow controller and a practical application demonstrates the applicability of the algorithm.展开更多
Objective:To explore the modeling of time series of animal bite occurrence in northwest Iran.Methods:In this study,we analyzed surveillance time series data for animal bite cases in the northwest Iran province of Iran...Objective:To explore the modeling of time series of animal bite occurrence in northwest Iran.Methods:In this study,we analyzed surveillance time series data for animal bite cases in the northwest Iran province of Iran from 2011 to 2017.We used decomposition methods to explore seasonality and long-term trends and applied the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)model to fit a univariate time series of animal bite incidence.The ARIMA modeling process involved selecting the time series,transforming the series,selecting the appropriate model,estimating parameters,and forecasting.Results:Our results using the Box Jenkins model showed a significant seasonal trend and an overall increase in animal bite incidents during the study period.The best-fitting model for the available data was a seasonal ARIMA model with drift in the form of ARIMA(2,0,0)(1,1,1).This model can be used to forecast the frequency of animal attacks in northwest Iran over the next two years,suggesting that the incidence of animal attacks in the region would continue to increase during this time frame(2018-2019).Conclusion:Our findings suggest that time series analysis is a useful method for investigating animal bite cases and predicting future occurrences.The existence of a seasonal trend in animal bites can also aid in planning healthcare services during different seasons of the year.Therefore,our study highlights the importance of implementing proactive measures to address the growing issue of animal bites in Iran.展开更多
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61573052,61174128)
文摘The paper describes a closed-loop system identification procedure for hybrid continuous-time Box–Jenkins models and demonstrates how it can be used for IMC based PID controller tuning. An instrumental variable algorithm is used to identify hybrid continuous-time transfer function models of the Box–Jenkins form from discretetime prefiltered data, where the process model is a continuous-time transfer function, while the noise is represented as a discrete-time ARMA process. A novel penalized maximum-likelihood approach is used for estimating the discrete-time ARMA process and a circulatory noise elimination identification method is employed to estimate process model. The input–output data of a process are affected by additive circulatory noise in a closedloop. The noise-free input–output data of the process are obtained using the proposed method by removing these circulatory noise components. The process model can be achieved by using instrumental variable estimation method with prefiltered noise-free input–output data. The performance of the proposed hybrid parameter estimation scheme is evaluated by the Monte Carlo simulation analysis. Simulation results illustrate the efficacy of the proposed procedure. The methodology has been successfully applied in tuning of IMC based flow controller and a practical application demonstrates the applicability of the algorithm.
文摘Objective:To explore the modeling of time series of animal bite occurrence in northwest Iran.Methods:In this study,we analyzed surveillance time series data for animal bite cases in the northwest Iran province of Iran from 2011 to 2017.We used decomposition methods to explore seasonality and long-term trends and applied the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)model to fit a univariate time series of animal bite incidence.The ARIMA modeling process involved selecting the time series,transforming the series,selecting the appropriate model,estimating parameters,and forecasting.Results:Our results using the Box Jenkins model showed a significant seasonal trend and an overall increase in animal bite incidents during the study period.The best-fitting model for the available data was a seasonal ARIMA model with drift in the form of ARIMA(2,0,0)(1,1,1).This model can be used to forecast the frequency of animal attacks in northwest Iran over the next two years,suggesting that the incidence of animal attacks in the region would continue to increase during this time frame(2018-2019).Conclusion:Our findings suggest that time series analysis is a useful method for investigating animal bite cases and predicting future occurrences.The existence of a seasonal trend in animal bites can also aid in planning healthcare services during different seasons of the year.Therefore,our study highlights the importance of implementing proactive measures to address the growing issue of animal bites in Iran.
