Arid areas with low precipitation and sparse vegetation typically yield compact urban pattern,and drought directly impacts urban site selection,growth processes,and future scenarios.Spatial simulation and projection b...Arid areas with low precipitation and sparse vegetation typically yield compact urban pattern,and drought directly impacts urban site selection,growth processes,and future scenarios.Spatial simulation and projection based on cellular automata(CA)models is important to achieve sustainable urban development in arid areas.We developed a new CA model using bat algorithm(BA)named bat algorithm-probability-of-occurrence-cellular automata(BA-POO-CA)model by considering drought constraint to accurately delineate urban growth patterns and project future scenarios of Urumqi City and its surrounding areas,located in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China.We calibrated the BA-POO-CA model for the drought-prone study area with 2000 and 2010 data and validated the model with 2010 and 2020 data,and finally projected its urban scenarios in 2030.The results showed that BA-POO-CA model yielded overall accuracy of 97.70%and figure-of-merits(FOMs)of 35.50%in 2010,and 97.70%and 26.70%in 2020,respectively.The inclusion of drought intensity factor improved the performance of BA-POO-CA model in terms of FOMs,with increases of 5.50%in 2010 and 7.90%in 2020 than the model excluding drought intensity factor.This suggested that the urban growth of Urumqi City was affected by drought,and therefore taking drought intensity factor into account would contribute to simulation accuracy.The BA-POO-CA model including drought intensity factor was used to project two possible scenarios(i.e.,business-as-usual(BAU)scenario and ecological scenario)in 2030.In the BAU scenario,the urban growth dominated mainly in urban fringe areas,especially in the northern part of Toutunhe District,Xinshi District,and Midong District.Using exceptional and extreme drought areas as a spatial constraint,the urban growth was mainly concentrated in the"main urban areas-Changji-Hutubi"corridor urban pattern in the ecological scenario.The results of this research can help to adjust urban planning and development policies.Our model is readily applicable to simulating urban growth and future scenarios in global arid areas such as Northwest China and Africa.展开更多
The spatiotemporal variations of the site and regional droughts in China during 1960–2009 were analyzed by applying a daily composite-drought index （CDI） to 722 stations in China's Mainland. Droughts frequently...The spatiotemporal variations of the site and regional droughts in China during 1960–2009 were analyzed by applying a daily composite-drought index （CDI） to 722 stations in China's Mainland. Droughts frequently happened in a zone extended from Southwest China to the Yellow River, North China, and the southwestern part of Northeast China, with two centers of high frequency in North China and Southwest China. In Southwest and South China, droughts tend to happen during the winter. In North China and along the Yellow River, droughts mainly occur during the winter and during May–June. During the past 50 years, the geographical distribution of site drought events showed high frequencies （0.9–1.3 times per year） in the upper Yellow River basin and North China, comparing with moderate frequencies （0.6–0.9 times per year） in Southwest China and the southwestern part of Northeast China and with lower frequencies over the middle and lower Yangtze River basin. And the frequencies increased over China's Mainland except for the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. A regional drought （RD） event is a widespread and persistent event that covers at least five adjacent sites and lasts for at least 10 days. There were 252 RD events in the past 50 years—five times per year. Most RD events lasted for 100 days and covered 100 stations, but the longest and largest RD event lasted for 307 days from 6 September 1998 to 9 July 1999 and covered 327 stations from North to Southwest China.展开更多
The spatial pattern of meteorological factors cannot be accurately simulated by using observations from meteorological stations(OMS) that are distributed sparsely in complex terrain. It is expected that the spatial-te...The spatial pattern of meteorological factors cannot be accurately simulated by using observations from meteorological stations(OMS) that are distributed sparsely in complex terrain. It is expected that the spatial-temporal characteristics of drought in regions with complex terrain can be better represented by meteorological data with the high spatial-temporal resolution and accuracy. In this study, Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI) calculated with meteorological factors extracted from ITPCAS(China Meteorological Forcing Dataset produced by the Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences) was applied to identify the spatial-temporal characteristics of drought in Shaanxi Province of China, during the period of 1979–2016. Drought areas detected by SPEI calculated with data from ITPCAS(SPEI-ITPCAS) on the seasonal scale were validated by historical drought records from the Chinese Meteorological Disaster Canon-Shaanxi, and compared with drought areas detected by SPEI calculated with data from OMS(SPEI-OMS). Drought intensity, trend and temporal ranges for mutations of SPEI-ITPCAS were analyzed by using the cumulative drought intensity(CDI) index and the Mann-Kendall test. The results indicated that drought areas detected from SPEI-ITPCAS were closer to the historical drought records than those detected from SPEI-OMS. Severe and exceptional drought events with SPEI-ITPCAS lower than –1.0 occurred most frequently in summer, followed by spring. There was a general drying trend in spring and summer in Shaanxi Province and a significant wetting trend in autumn and winter in northern Shaanxi Province. On seasonal and annual scales, the regional and temporal ranges for mutations of SPEI-ITPCAS were different and most mutations occurred before the year 1990 in most regions of Shaanxi Province. The results reflect the response of different regions of Shaanxi Province to climate change, which will help to manage regional water resources.展开更多
Drought is an inevitable condition with negative impacts in the agricultural and climatic sectors,especially in developing countries.This study attempts to examine the spatial and temporal characteristics of drought a...Drought is an inevitable condition with negative impacts in the agricultural and climatic sectors,especially in developing countries.This study attempts to examine the spatial and temporal characteristics of drought and its trends in the Koshi River Basin(KRB)in Nepal,using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)over the period from 1987 to 2017.The Mann-Kendall test was used to explore the trends of the SPEI values.The study illustrated the increasing annual and seasonal drought trends in the KRB over the study period.Spatially,the hill region of the KRB showed substantial increasing drought trends at the annual and seasonal scales,especially in summer and winter.The mountain region also showed a significant increasing drought trend in winter.The drought characteristic analysis indicated that the maximum duration,intensity,and severity of drought events were observed in the KRB after 2000.The Terai region presented the highest drought frequency and intensity,while the hill region presented the longest maximum drought duration.Moreover,the spatial extent of drought showed a significant increasing trend in the hill region at the monthly(drought station proportion of 7.6%/10 a in August),seasonal(drought station proportion of 7.2%/10 a in summer),and annual(drought station proportion of 6.7%/10 a)scales.The findings of this study can assist local governments,planners,and project implementers in understanding drought and developing appropriate mitigation strategies to cope with its impacts.展开更多
Meteorological drought is a natural hazard that can occur under all climatic regimes. Monitoring the drought is a vital and important part of predicting and analyzing drought impacts. Because no single index can repre...Meteorological drought is a natural hazard that can occur under all climatic regimes. Monitoring the drought is a vital and important part of predicting and analyzing drought impacts. Because no single index can represent all facets of meteorological drought, we took a multi-index approach for drought monitoring in this study. We assessed the ability of eight precipitation-based drought indices（SPI（Standardized Precipitation Index）, PNI（Percent of Normal Index）, DI（Deciles index）, EDI（Effective drought index）, CZI（China-Z index）, MCZI（Modified CZI）, RAI（Rainfall Anomaly Index）, and ZSI（Z-score Index）） calculated from the station-observed precipitation data and the Ag MERRA gridded precipitation data to assess historical drought events during the period 1987–2010 for the Kashafrood Basin of Iran. We also presented the Degree of Dryness Index（DDI） for comparing the intensities of different drought categories in each year of the study period（1987–2010）. In general, the correlations among drought indices calculated from the Ag MERRA precipitation data were higher than those derived from the station-observed precipitation data. All indices indicated the most severe droughts for the study period occurred in 2001 and 2008. Regardless of data input source, SPI, PNI, and DI were highly inter-correlated（R^2=0.99）. Furthermore, the higher correlations（R^2=0.99） were also found between CZI and MCZI, and between ZSI and RAI. All indices were able to track drought intensity, but EDI and RAI showed higher DDI values compared with the other indices. Based on the strong correlation among drought indices derived from the Ag MERRA precipitation data and from the station-observed precipitation data, we suggest that the Ag MERRA precipitation data can be accepted to fill the gaps existed in the station-observed precipitation data in future studies in Iran. In addition, if tested by station-observed precipitation data, the Ag MERRA precipitation data may be used for the data-lacking areas.展开更多
Drought is one of the most complex natural hazards affecting agriculture, water resources, natural ecosystems, and society. The negative societal consequences of drought include severe economic losses, famine, epidemi...Drought is one of the most complex natural hazards affecting agriculture, water resources, natural ecosystems, and society. The negative societal consequences of drought include severe economic losses, famine, epidemics, and land degradation. However, few studies have analyzed the complexity of drought characteristics, both at multiple time scales and with variations in evapotranspiration. In this study, drought occurrences were quantified using a new drought index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index （SPEI）, based on observed data of monthly mean temperature and precipitation from 1961 to 2013 in Henan province, central China. Based on the SPEI values of each weather station in the study the frequency and severity of meteorological droughts were computed, and the monthly, seasonal, and annual drought frequency and intensity over a 53-year period were analyzed. The spatial and temporal evolution, intensity, and the primary causes of drought occurrence in Henan were revealed. The results showed that the SPEI values effectively reflected the spa- tial and temporal pattern of drought occurrence. As the time scale decreased, the amplitude of the SPEI increased and droughts became more frequent. Since 1961, drought has oc- curred at the annual, seasonal, and monthly scales, and the occurrence of drought has in- creased. However, regional distribution has been uneven. The highest drought frequency, 35%, was observed in the Zhoukou region, while the lowest value, -26%, was measured in central and western Henan. The most severe droughts occurred in the spring and summer, followed by autumn. Annually, wide-ranging droughts occurred in 1966-1968, 1998-2000, and 2011-2013. The drought intensity showed higher values in north and west Henan, and lower values in its east and south. The maximum drought intensity value was recorded in Anyang, and the minimum occurred in Zhumadian, at 22.18% and 16.60%, respectively. The factors with the greatest influence on drought occurrence are increasing temperatures, the Eurasian atmospheric circulation patterns, and the El Nino effect.展开更多
基金supported the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42071371)the National Key R&D Program of China(2018YFB0505400).
文摘Arid areas with low precipitation and sparse vegetation typically yield compact urban pattern,and drought directly impacts urban site selection,growth processes,and future scenarios.Spatial simulation and projection based on cellular automata(CA)models is important to achieve sustainable urban development in arid areas.We developed a new CA model using bat algorithm(BA)named bat algorithm-probability-of-occurrence-cellular automata(BA-POO-CA)model by considering drought constraint to accurately delineate urban growth patterns and project future scenarios of Urumqi City and its surrounding areas,located in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China.We calibrated the BA-POO-CA model for the drought-prone study area with 2000 and 2010 data and validated the model with 2010 and 2020 data,and finally projected its urban scenarios in 2030.The results showed that BA-POO-CA model yielded overall accuracy of 97.70%and figure-of-merits(FOMs)of 35.50%in 2010,and 97.70%and 26.70%in 2020,respectively.The inclusion of drought intensity factor improved the performance of BA-POO-CA model in terms of FOMs,with increases of 5.50%in 2010 and 7.90%in 2020 than the model excluding drought intensity factor.This suggested that the urban growth of Urumqi City was affected by drought,and therefore taking drought intensity factor into account would contribute to simulation accuracy.The BA-POO-CA model including drought intensity factor was used to project two possible scenarios(i.e.,business-as-usual(BAU)scenario and ecological scenario)in 2030.In the BAU scenario,the urban growth dominated mainly in urban fringe areas,especially in the northern part of Toutunhe District,Xinshi District,and Midong District.Using exceptional and extreme drought areas as a spatial constraint,the urban growth was mainly concentrated in the"main urban areas-Changji-Hutubi"corridor urban pattern in the ecological scenario.The results of this research can help to adjust urban planning and development policies.Our model is readily applicable to simulating urban growth and future scenarios in global arid areas such as Northwest China and Africa.
基金supported jointly bythe National Natural Science Foundation of China (GrantNo. 40975039)the Key Technologies R&D Program(Grant No. 2009BAC51B04)+1 种基金the Chinese COPES Project (Grant No. GYHY201006018)The CDI data was provided by the Key Technologies R&D Program (GrantNo. 2007BAC29B06).
文摘The spatiotemporal variations of the site and regional droughts in China during 1960–2009 were analyzed by applying a daily composite-drought index （CDI） to 722 stations in China's Mainland. Droughts frequently happened in a zone extended from Southwest China to the Yellow River, North China, and the southwestern part of Northeast China, with two centers of high frequency in North China and Southwest China. In Southwest and South China, droughts tend to happen during the winter. In North China and along the Yellow River, droughts mainly occur during the winter and during May–June. During the past 50 years, the geographical distribution of site drought events showed high frequencies （0.9–1.3 times per year） in the upper Yellow River basin and North China, comparing with moderate frequencies （0.6–0.9 times per year） in Southwest China and the southwestern part of Northeast China and with lower frequencies over the middle and lower Yangtze River basin. And the frequencies increased over China's Mainland except for the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. A regional drought （RD） event is a widespread and persistent event that covers at least five adjacent sites and lasts for at least 10 days. There were 252 RD events in the past 50 years—five times per year. Most RD events lasted for 100 days and covered 100 stations, but the longest and largest RD event lasted for 307 days from 6 September 1998 to 9 July 1999 and covered 327 stations from North to Southwest China.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41871307)the Shaanxi Coordinate Innovation Plan Project of Science and Technology (2016KTCL03-17)。
文摘The spatial pattern of meteorological factors cannot be accurately simulated by using observations from meteorological stations(OMS) that are distributed sparsely in complex terrain. It is expected that the spatial-temporal characteristics of drought in regions with complex terrain can be better represented by meteorological data with the high spatial-temporal resolution and accuracy. In this study, Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI) calculated with meteorological factors extracted from ITPCAS(China Meteorological Forcing Dataset produced by the Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences) was applied to identify the spatial-temporal characteristics of drought in Shaanxi Province of China, during the period of 1979–2016. Drought areas detected by SPEI calculated with data from ITPCAS(SPEI-ITPCAS) on the seasonal scale were validated by historical drought records from the Chinese Meteorological Disaster Canon-Shaanxi, and compared with drought areas detected by SPEI calculated with data from OMS(SPEI-OMS). Drought intensity, trend and temporal ranges for mutations of SPEI-ITPCAS were analyzed by using the cumulative drought intensity(CDI) index and the Mann-Kendall test. The results indicated that drought areas detected from SPEI-ITPCAS were closer to the historical drought records than those detected from SPEI-OMS. Severe and exceptional drought events with SPEI-ITPCAS lower than –1.0 occurred most frequently in summer, followed by spring. There was a general drying trend in spring and summer in Shaanxi Province and a significant wetting trend in autumn and winter in northern Shaanxi Province. On seasonal and annual scales, the regional and temporal ranges for mutations of SPEI-ITPCAS were different and most mutations occurred before the year 1990 in most regions of Shaanxi Province. The results reflect the response of different regions of Shaanxi Province to climate change, which will help to manage regional water resources.
基金funded by the CAS(Chinese Academy of Sciences)Overseas Institutions Platform Project(Grant No.131C11KYSB20200033)the NSFC-ICIMOD Joint Research Project(Grant No.41661144038)。
文摘Drought is an inevitable condition with negative impacts in the agricultural and climatic sectors,especially in developing countries.This study attempts to examine the spatial and temporal characteristics of drought and its trends in the Koshi River Basin(KRB)in Nepal,using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)over the period from 1987 to 2017.The Mann-Kendall test was used to explore the trends of the SPEI values.The study illustrated the increasing annual and seasonal drought trends in the KRB over the study period.Spatially,the hill region of the KRB showed substantial increasing drought trends at the annual and seasonal scales,especially in summer and winter.The mountain region also showed a significant increasing drought trend in winter.The drought characteristic analysis indicated that the maximum duration,intensity,and severity of drought events were observed in the KRB after 2000.The Terai region presented the highest drought frequency and intensity,while the hill region presented the longest maximum drought duration.Moreover,the spatial extent of drought showed a significant increasing trend in the hill region at the monthly(drought station proportion of 7.6%/10 a in August),seasonal(drought station proportion of 7.2%/10 a in summer),and annual(drought station proportion of 6.7%/10 a)scales.The findings of this study can assist local governments,planners,and project implementers in understanding drought and developing appropriate mitigation strategies to cope with its impacts.
文摘Meteorological drought is a natural hazard that can occur under all climatic regimes. Monitoring the drought is a vital and important part of predicting and analyzing drought impacts. Because no single index can represent all facets of meteorological drought, we took a multi-index approach for drought monitoring in this study. We assessed the ability of eight precipitation-based drought indices（SPI（Standardized Precipitation Index）, PNI（Percent of Normal Index）, DI（Deciles index）, EDI（Effective drought index）, CZI（China-Z index）, MCZI（Modified CZI）, RAI（Rainfall Anomaly Index）, and ZSI（Z-score Index）） calculated from the station-observed precipitation data and the Ag MERRA gridded precipitation data to assess historical drought events during the period 1987–2010 for the Kashafrood Basin of Iran. We also presented the Degree of Dryness Index（DDI） for comparing the intensities of different drought categories in each year of the study period（1987–2010）. In general, the correlations among drought indices calculated from the Ag MERRA precipitation data were higher than those derived from the station-observed precipitation data. All indices indicated the most severe droughts for the study period occurred in 2001 and 2008. Regardless of data input source, SPI, PNI, and DI were highly inter-correlated（R^2=0.99）. Furthermore, the higher correlations（R^2=0.99） were also found between CZI and MCZI, and between ZSI and RAI. All indices were able to track drought intensity, but EDI and RAI showed higher DDI values compared with the other indices. Based on the strong correlation among drought indices derived from the Ag MERRA precipitation data and from the station-observed precipitation data, we suggest that the Ag MERRA precipitation data can be accepted to fill the gaps existed in the station-observed precipitation data in future studies in Iran. In addition, if tested by station-observed precipitation data, the Ag MERRA precipitation data may be used for the data-lacking areas.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41140019 No.41501263 The Key Program of Higher Education of Henan Province of China, No.15A180054
文摘Drought is one of the most complex natural hazards affecting agriculture, water resources, natural ecosystems, and society. The negative societal consequences of drought include severe economic losses, famine, epidemics, and land degradation. However, few studies have analyzed the complexity of drought characteristics, both at multiple time scales and with variations in evapotranspiration. In this study, drought occurrences were quantified using a new drought index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index （SPEI）, based on observed data of monthly mean temperature and precipitation from 1961 to 2013 in Henan province, central China. Based on the SPEI values of each weather station in the study the frequency and severity of meteorological droughts were computed, and the monthly, seasonal, and annual drought frequency and intensity over a 53-year period were analyzed. The spatial and temporal evolution, intensity, and the primary causes of drought occurrence in Henan were revealed. The results showed that the SPEI values effectively reflected the spa- tial and temporal pattern of drought occurrence. As the time scale decreased, the amplitude of the SPEI increased and droughts became more frequent. Since 1961, drought has oc- curred at the annual, seasonal, and monthly scales, and the occurrence of drought has in- creased. However, regional distribution has been uneven. The highest drought frequency, 35%, was observed in the Zhoukou region, while the lowest value, -26%, was measured in central and western Henan. The most severe droughts occurred in the spring and summer, followed by autumn. Annually, wide-ranging droughts occurred in 1966-1968, 1998-2000, and 2011-2013. The drought intensity showed higher values in north and west Henan, and lower values in its east and south. The maximum drought intensity value was recorded in Anyang, and the minimum occurred in Zhumadian, at 22.18% and 16.60%, respectively. The factors with the greatest influence on drought occurrence are increasing temperatures, the Eurasian atmospheric circulation patterns, and the El Nino effect.
