This study aims to reveal the spatial structural characteristics of 1,652 Ethnic-Minority Villages(EMV)in China and to analyze the mechanisms driving their spatial heterogeneity.EMV are a special type of settlement sp...This study aims to reveal the spatial structural characteristics of 1,652 Ethnic-Minority Villages(EMV)in China and to analyze the mechanisms driving their spatial heterogeneity.EMV are a special type of settlement space that preserve a large number of historical traces of the ethnic culture of ancient China.They are important carriers of China’s excellent traditional culture and are key to the implementation of rural revitalization strategies.In this study,1652 EMV in China were selected as the research subjects.The Nearest Neighbor Index,kernel density,and spatial autocorrelation index were employed to reveal the spatial structural characteristics of minority villages.Neural network models,spatial lag models,and geographical detectors were used to analyze the formation mechanism of spatial heterogeneity in EMV.The results indicate that:(1)EMV exhibit significant spatial differentiation characterized by“single-core with multiple surrounding sub-centers,”“polarization between east and west,”“decreasing quantity from southwest to east coast to northeast to northwest,”and“large dispersion with small agglomeration.”(2)EMV are mainly distributed in areas rich in intangible cultural heritage,with high vegetation coverage and low altitude,far from central cities,and having limited arable land and an underdeveloped economy and transportation,particularly in shaded or riverbank areas.(3)Distance from the nearest river(X3),distance from central cities(X8),national intangible cultural heritage(X9),and NDVI(X10)were the main driving factors affecting the spatial distribution of EMV,whereas elevation(X1)and GDP(X5)had the weakest influence.As EMV are a relatively unique territorial spatial unit,the identification of their spatial heterogeneity characteristics not only deepens the research content of settlement geography,but also involves the assessment,protection,and development of Minority Villages,which is of great significance for the inheritance and utilization of excellent ethnic cultures in the era.展开更多
In the context of building a country with a strong transportation network,railway container transportation(RCT)is an import-ant means of reducing costs,increasing efficiency,and adjusting transportation structures.Thu...In the context of building a country with a strong transportation network,railway container transportation(RCT)is an import-ant means of reducing costs,increasing efficiency,and adjusting transportation structures.Thus,its impact on regional economic devel-opment is important.Based on data from railway container-handling stations and spatial econometric models,this study discusses the differences in the development of RCT and their impact on regional economic development at different leves.This study has three main findings:first,there are significant regional differences in the development of the RCT.The intra-regional differences between the east-ern and central regions of China(which do not include Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)are gradually narrowing,while the regional dif-ferences in the western region are widening.Meanwhile,the intra-regional differences in important economic zones such as Pearl River Delta Economic Zone(PRDEZ),Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone(CYEZ),Bohai Rim Economic Zone(BHEZ),and Yangtze River Delta Economic Zone(YRDEZ)are narrowing daily.Second,the development differences of RCT in regional level and import-ant economic regions level show different trends.The unbalanced features of large regions are increasingly evident,whereas the differ-ences in economic regions are decreasing.However,the problem of overlapping RCT remains prominent.Third,the transformation of RCT development mode and fierce competition among transportation modes cause RCT to have a restraining effect on the regional eco-nomy at three levels.Rational allocation of resources and other means must be used to guide the transformation from inhibition to pro-motion,and by formulating targeted policies that will promote the development of RCT,which will improve the transportation structure and help construct a country with a strong transportation system.展开更多
To address climate change,the world needs deep decarbonization to achieve carbon neutrality(CN),which implies net-zero human-caused CO_(2) emissions in the atmosphere.This study used emission-side drivers,including so...To address climate change,the world needs deep decarbonization to achieve carbon neutrality(CN),which implies net-zero human-caused CO_(2) emissions in the atmosphere.This study used emission-side drivers,including socioeconomic and net primary productivity(NPP)-based factors,to determine the changes in CN based on vegetation carbon sequestration in the case of China during 2001-2015.Spatial exploratory analysis as well as the combined use of production-theoretical decomposition analysis(PDA)and an econometric model were also utilized.We showed that CN was significantly spatially correlated over the study period;Yunnan,Heilongjiang,and Jilin presented positive spatial autocorrelations,whereas Guizhou showed a negative spatial autocorrelation.More than half of CN declined over the period during which potential energy intensity(PEIE)and energy usage technological change were the largest negative and positive drivers for increasing CN.PEIE played a significantly negative role in increasing CN.We advise policymakers to focus more on emission-side drivers(e.g.,energy intensity)in addition to strengthening NPP management to achieve CN.展开更多
This paper analyzes and compares the key factors influencing food security in two populous countries(China and India),and cate-gorizes them into three types:agricultural production,economic development and income leve...This paper analyzes and compares the key factors influencing food security in two populous countries(China and India),and cate-gorizes them into three types:agricultural production,economic development and income level,and income distribution.Using the prevalence of undernourishment as an indicator of food security,the paper empirically tests the degree of impact of various factors on food security in both countries using Tobit regression and Newey regression methods.The study finds that improving the level of economic development can significantly enhance food security in both countriesꎻreducing the Gini coefficient has a significant impact on India,but not on Chinaꎻincreasing the agricultural production per capita has a much greater effect on China than on India.Therefore,both countries should take measures that are both similar and different according to their national conditions to improve their food security level.展开更多
Metropolitan cities in China have become a major economic hubs with an unprecedented increase of land use and decline of environmental resources. Based on a simple and abstract forest conservation model, this paper at...Metropolitan cities in China have become a major economic hubs with an unprecedented increase of land use and decline of environmental resources. Based on a simple and abstract forest conservation model, this paper attempts to explain changes of forest resources caused by urban sprawl. Through the research, it is found that high level of regional human capital is beneficial to curb urban sprawl. In this vein the model presents the urban forest conservation cost strategy at the Nash equilibrium of varied discount factor and parameter control.展开更多
Agricultural input and output status in southern Xinjiang,China is introduced,such as lack of agricultural input,low level of agricultural modernization,excessive fertilizer use,serious damage of environment,shortage ...Agricultural input and output status in southern Xinjiang,China is introduced,such as lack of agricultural input,low level of agricultural modernization,excessive fertilizer use,serious damage of environment,shortage of water resources,tremendous pressure on ecological balance,insignificant economic and social benefits of agricultural production in southern Xinjiang,agriculture remaining a weak industry,agricultural economy as the economic subject of southern Xinjiang,and backward economic development of southern Xinjiang.Taking the Aksu area as an example,according to the input and output data in the years 2002-2007,input-output model about regional agriculture of the southern Xinjiang is established by principal component analysis.DPS software is used in the process of solving the model.Then,Eviews software is adopted to revise and test the model in order to analyze and evaluate the economic significance of the results obtained,and to make additional explanations of the relevant model.Since the agricultural economic output is seriously restricted in southern Xinjiang at present,the following countermeasures are put forward,such as adjusting the structure of agricultural land,improving the utilization ratio of land,increasing agricultural input,realizing agricultural modernization,rationally utilizing water resources,maintaining eco-environmental balance,enhancing the awareness of agricultural insurance,minimizing the risk and loss,taking the road of industrialization of characteristic agricultural products,and realizing the transfer of surplus labor force.展开更多
This study explores the Exposure at Default(EAD)emanating from credit events undertaken by listed banking corporations trading on emerging markets,such as Zimbabwe’s Stock Exchange(ZSE)or market in the dollarization ...This study explores the Exposure at Default(EAD)emanating from credit events undertaken by listed banking corporations trading on emerging markets,such as Zimbabwe’s Stock Exchange(ZSE)or market in the dollarization era,namely period 2010-2012.The dollarization of the Zimbabwean economy in 2009 coincided with the recovery of the global financial economy from the worst worldwide economic recession ever experienced in this world.The study used audited and published data drawn from financial statements of two banking corporations for the period 2010 to 2012 that were accessible on ZSE website.These data were presented and analyzed using Eviews7.The study revealed that there were a lot of non-performing loans drawn from EADs of banking corporations trading on the ZSE in the period under review.The study further noted that credit exposures issued by commercial banks in the period 2010-2012 were also exposed to risk from the nature of the borrowers,banks’internal and external market variables.The variables that impacted on banks’credit exposures include political,social,industrial,unemployment,technological challenges,state of financial markets,their capitalization and liquidity statuses.We therefore conclude that banks in emerging markets need to efficiently and effectively manage their credit portfolios in their desire to grow towards sustainable development.The study also concludes that banks in emerging markets that are into lending activities should adopt and implement financial econometric(EAD)models that are easy to apply,practical,pragmatic,and adjusted for market friction.The study recommends that listed banking corporations in emerging markets need to adhere to the requirements of the Basel Ⅱ and Ⅲ Capital Accords if they are to make meaningful business out of their credit exposure operations.It also recommends that banks should come up with capitalization and investment strategies that suit their economic conditions if they are to grow and develop sizeable market shares and wealth from their lending businesses.Finally the study recommends that banks in emerging economies should adapt to international business standards,strategies,ethics,and corporate governance parameters if they are to grow towards greater similarity with those in developed nations in their service delivery to the stakeholders and contribution to nation building and sustainable development.展开更多
Within the European Union (EU) a paradigm shift is currently occurring in the waste sector, where EU waste directives and national waste strategies are placing emphasis on resource efficiency and recycling targets. Th...Within the European Union (EU) a paradigm shift is currently occurring in the waste sector, where EU waste directives and national waste strategies are placing emphasis on resource efficiency and recycling targets. The most recent Danish resource strategy calculates a national recycling rate of 22% for household waste, and sets an ambitious goal of a 50% recycling rate by 2020. This study integrates the recycling target into the FRIDA model to project how much waste and from which streams should be diverted from incineration to recycling in order to achieve the target. Furthermore, it discusses how the existing technological, organizational and legislative frameworks may affect recycling activities. The results of the analysis show that with current best practice recycling rates, the 50% recycling rate cannot be reached without recycling of household biowaste. It also shows that all Danish municipalities will need to make efforts to recover all recyclable fractions, and that the increased recycling efforts of only selected municipalities will not be sufficient to reach the target.展开更多
Qinghai is the strategic base and important fulcrum of the Belt and Road Initiative while tourism is a strategic pillar industry in Qinghai Province.Due to its rich tourism resources and unique ecological environment,...Qinghai is the strategic base and important fulcrum of the Belt and Road Initiative while tourism is a strategic pillar industry in Qinghai Province.Due to its rich tourism resources and unique ecological environment,the integration of tourism in Qinghai into the Belt and Road has attracted great attention of the Asian Development Bank(ADB).With the spatial data of tourism elements POI and the statistical data of 44 counties in Qinghai to analyze the characteristics and influencing factors of the spatial agglomeration of tourism in Qinghai,the paper conducts research on spatial coupling and concludes with the following results:The spatial agglomeration of tourism in Qinghai presents the distribution pattern of“one circle and one belt”;economic density and population density play an important role in the formation of the spatial agglomeration pattern of tourism with some spatial spillovers;Belt and Road has a significant impact on the promotion of tourism agglomeration in Qinghai.The paper suggests that tourism in Qinghai should fully integrate into the Belt and Road,giving full play to the guiding role of Belt and Road in the allocation of social and economic resources,and optimizing the spatial layout.展开更多
Urban agglomeration(UA)is an advanced spatial economic form formed and developed in the process of rapid industrialization and urbanization,and an important carrier of urbanization and economic development.The economy...Urban agglomeration(UA)is an advanced spatial economic form formed and developed in the process of rapid industrialization and urbanization,and an important carrier of urbanization and economic development.The economy has developed rapidly in the recent decades of China,and the UAs have also developed rapidly.However,as a large population country,the population distribution and changes of UAs in China has unique characteristics.Using the fifth,sixth and seventh population census data,spatial auto-correlation and spatial econometric models,we analyzed the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of population agglomeration in China’s UAs.Results revealed that:1)from 2000 to 2020,the population gradually converged into UAs,and the characteristics of population agglomeration in different development degree of UAs differ.The higher the development degree of UA,the higher the population agglomeration degree.Besides,UAs are the main area with the most significant population agglomeration degree,and the spatial autocorrelation show that the cities with similar degree tend to be concentrated in space.The urban population gathering in UAs has a certain positive spillover effect on population size of neighboring cities.2)Economic development and social conditions factors are important factors affecting population agglomeration degree in UAs.The main factors of population gather into UAs are similar with the outside UAs,but the positive promotion of urbanization rate and proportion of tertiary industry in GDP on population agglomeration of UAs in China are enhancing from 2000 to 2020.Meanwhile,the other factors,such as high-quality public services,good urban living environment conditions,high-quality medical and educational resources,are also important factors to promote urban population gather into UAs.This study provides a basis for formulating the development planning of UAs in China,and enriches the relevant theoretical research of population evolution and influencing factors of UAs.展开更多
Investigating the spatiotemporal variation of human activity intensity and its determinants is a crucial basis for further revealing the mechanism of human-environment interaction and optimizing the human development ...Investigating the spatiotemporal variation of human activity intensity and its determinants is a crucial basis for further revealing the mechanism of human-environment interaction and optimizing the human development mode.In this study,the human activity intensity on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP)from 1990 to 2020 was measured based on the quantitative model of land use data and the actual regional background,and the under-lying natural and socioeconomic determinants were investigated using spatial econometric methods.The results demonstrate that(1)the human activity intensity in QTP has increased by 11.96%,and there are differences in different spatial scales;the areas with high human activity intensity are distributed in the Hehuang Valley where Xining City and its surrounding areas are located,as well as the One-River and Two-River Area where Lhasa City and surrounding areas are located.(2)Human activity intensity has significant positive spatial spillover,suggesting that local changes will cause changes in the same direction in adjacent areas.(3)The human activ-ity intensity in QTP is affected by various determinants.Concerning socioeconomic factors,the economic level has no significant impact on the human activity intensity in QTP,which differs from the general regional law.Both urbanization and traffic conditions have a significant positive effect,and the impact intensity continues to increase.Concerning natural factors,topographic relief has a significant positive effect;the impacts of temper-ature and vegetation coverage have changed from insignificant to a significant positive effect;the impacts of precipitation and river network density have not been verified;there is no linear relationship between altitude and human activity intensity in the entire QTP,while it exists in local regions.Finally,this study proposes three policy implications for the realization of a more harmonious human-environment relationship in QTP.展开更多
There is plenty of forests in Northeast China which contributes a lot to the conservation of water and land resources, produces timber products, and provides habitats for a huge number of wild animals and plants. With...There is plenty of forests in Northeast China which contributes a lot to the conservation of water and land resources, produces timber products, and provides habitats for a huge number of wild animals and plants. With changes of socio-economic factors as well as the geophysical conditions, there are dramatic changes on the spatial patterns of forest area. In this sense, it is of great significance to shed light on the dynamics of forest area changes to find the underlining reasons for shaping the changing patterns of forest area in Northeast China. To explore the dynamics of forest area change in Northeast China, an econometric model is developed which is composed of three equations identifying forestry production, conversion from open forest to closed forest and conversion from other land uses to closed forest so as to explore the impacts on the forest area changes from demographic, social, economic, location and geophysical factors. On this basis, we employ the Dynamics of Land System （DLS） model to simulate land-use conversions between forest area and non-forest cover and the land-use conversions within the sub-classes of forest area for the period 2000-2020 under business as usual scenario, environmental protection scenario and economic growth scenario. The simulation results show that forest area will expand continuously and there exist various kinds of changing patterns for the sub-classes of forest area, for example, closed forest will expand continuously and open forest and shrub will decrease a little bit, while area of other forest will keep intact. The research results provide meaningful decision-making information for conserving and exploiting the forest resources and makJng out the planning for forestry production Jn the Northeast China region.展开更多
This article explores the factors and mechanism driving the land-use conversion at regional level by developing and using an econometric approach which is called the simultaneous equations model （SEM）. A case study ...This article explores the factors and mechanism driving the land-use conversion at regional level by developing and using an econometric approach which is called the simultaneous equations model （SEM）. A case study in Jiangxi Province of China is conducted by establishing the SEM, which consists of three equations including agricultural production, land conversion of cultivated land to built-up area and land conversion of cultivated land to forest cover/grassland from 1988 to 2005. And then this paper employs the method of piecewise estimation to represent the influences of the factors such as population, society, economy, location and geophysical conditions on the process of land-use conversion in Jiangxi Province. Estimation results show that population is a predominant factor driving the land-use conversion at counties, while social and economic factors are determinant factors in the short term for the entire Jiangxi Province. Specifically, the size of agricultural population and the magnitude of agricultural input determine the agricultural production to a large extent; population size, plain area proportion at counties and land management policies together affect the direction and magnitude of conversion between cultivated land and built-up area; agricultural population proportion, terrain slope, grain production and non-agricultural industry promote the conversion of cultivated land to forest cover/grassland. Furthermore, the explored mechanism also reveals the underlying causes of the land use changes driven by a series of factors in Jiangxi Province. Finally, this paper concludes that factors proven to play an important role in driving the land-use conversion need to be considered when the land management agencies make out the land use planning to optimize the land use, expand the agricultural production, and conserve the cultivated land.展开更多
In this study,an inventory analysis approach was used to investigate the intensity of agricultural non-point source pollution(ANSP)and its spatial convergence at national and provincial levels in China from 1999 to 20...In this study,an inventory analysis approach was used to investigate the intensity of agricultural non-point source pollution(ANSP)and its spatial convergence at national and provincial levels in China from 1999 to 2017.On this basis,spatial factors affecting ANSP were explored by constructing a spatial econometric model.The results indicate that:1)The intensity of China's ANSP emission showed an overall upward trend and an obvious spatial difference,with the values being high in the eastern and central regions and relatively low in the western region.2)Significant spatial agglomeration was shown in China's ANSP intensity,and the agglomeration effect was increasing gradually.3)In the convergence analysis,a spatial lag model was found applicable for interpretation of the ANSP intensity,with the convergence rate being accelerated after considering the spatial factors but slower than that of regional economic growth.4)The spatial factors affecting the ANSP intensity are shown to be reduced by improving agricultural infrastructure investment,labor-force quality,and crop production ratio,while the expansion of agricultural economy scale and precipitation and runoff have positive impact on ANSP in the study region.However,agricultural research and development(R&D)investment showed no direct significant effect on the ANSP intensity.Meanwhile,improving the quality of the labor force would significantly reduce the ANSP intensity in the surrounding areas,while the precipitation and runoff would significantly increase the pollution of neighboring regions.This research has laid a theoretical basis for formulation and optimization of ANSP prevention strategies in China and related regions.展开更多
This article examines the spatial characteristics of public service supply and the factors influencing such supply in cities of Sichuan Province, China using spatial-autocorrelation and spatial econometric models with...This article examines the spatial characteristics of public service supply and the factors influencing such supply in cities of Sichuan Province, China using spatial-autocorrelation and spatial econometric models with statistical data in 2012. The results demonstrate that expenditures on different types of public services present different spatial autocorrelation patterns. Although the spatial differences in basic public service expenditures are relatively small, a clear fan-shaped spillover to the east can be seen in Chengdu City. Chengdu also shows high clustering of advanced public service expenditures, being a typical core-periphery pattern. Post-earthquake reconstruction expenditures are clustered in the "5.12 Wenchuan earthquake" region and spill over toward cities to the east. The efficiency of public services in the mountainous areas in western Sichuan is low and exhibits a pattern of low-low spatial autocorrelation. The efficiency of public service supply is affected by economic, social, political and geographical factors. Based on the results of this analysis, we recommend a supply strategy that incorporates different types of public services and a specialized public service supply strategy for mountainous areas. Overall public service efficiency should be enhanced by focusing on narrowing the gap in farmers' income among regions and accelerating urbanization. Decision-makers should consider moresupportive policies with regard to providing basic public services in mountainous areas to ensure an equalized supply of basic public services. To enhance the efficiency of advanced public service supply, additional growth pole should be encouraged and incentivized; however, investments are required to drive the development of the peripheral regions through regional economic integration. Both software and hardware types of infrastructure are required to supply services efficiently during post-disaster reconstruction.展开更多
In this study,we developed an evaluation index system for green total-factor water-use efficiency(GTFWUE)which reflected both economic and green efficiencies of water resource utilization.Then we measured the GTFWUE o...In this study,we developed an evaluation index system for green total-factor water-use efficiency(GTFWUE)which reflected both economic and green efficiencies of water resource utilization.Then we measured the GTFWUE of 30 provinces/municipalities/autonomous regions(hereafter provinces)in China(not including Tibet,Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan as no data)from 2000 to 2018 using a minimum distance to the strong frontier model that contained an undesirable output.We further analyzed the regional differences and spatial correlations of GTFWUE using these values based on Global and Local Moran’s I statistics,and empirically determined the factors affecting GTFWUE using a spatial econometric model.The evaluation results revealed that the GTFWUE differed substantially between the regions.The provinces with high and low GTFWUE values were located in the coastal and inland areas of China,respectively.The eastern region had a significantly higher GTFWUE than the central and western regions.The GTFWUEs for all three regions(eastern,central,and western regions)decreased slowly from 2000 to 2011(except 2005),remained stable from 2012 to 2016,and rapidly increased in 2017 before decreasing again in 2018.We found significant spatial correlations between the provincial GTFWUEs.The GTFWUE for most provinces belonged to the high-high or low-low cluster region,revealing a significant spatial clustering effect of provincial GTFWUEs.We also found that China’s GTFWUE was highly promoted by economic growth,population size,opening-up level,and urbanization level,and was evidently hindered by water endowment,technological progress,and government influence.However,the water-use structure had little impact on GTFWUE.This study fully demonstrated that the water use mode would be improved,and water resources needed to be used more efficiently and green in China.Moreover,based on the findings of this study,several policy recommendations were proposed from the aspects of cross-regional cooperation,economy,society,and institution.展开更多
This study provides a harmonization framework for common capital flight policies in Africa.It builds on evidence of persistent extreme poverty in the continent to assess how common measures can be adopted by sampled c...This study provides a harmonization framework for common capital flight policies in Africa.It builds on evidence of persistent extreme poverty in the continent to assess how common measures can be adopted by sampled countries on one cause of extreme poverty:capital flight.The dataset is sub-divided into fundamental characteristics of African capital flight based on income levels,legal foundations,natural resources,political stability,regional proximity,and religious domination.The main finding shows that from a projection date of 2010,a feasible timeframe for harmonizing policies is between 2016 and 2023.This timeframe coincides with the beginning of the post-2015 agenda on sustainable development goals.展开更多
To analyze the spatial influence mechanism of talent policy on population flow, this study compares the government work reports of 31 provinces between 2008 and 2020, and quantifies regional talent policies in nine as...To analyze the spatial influence mechanism of talent policy on population flow, this study compares the government work reports of 31 provinces between 2008 and 2020, and quantifies regional talent policies in nine aspects, including talent evaluation and incentives, utilizing a comprehensive, standardized, and continuous approach. Additionally, this paper develops a spatial econometric analysis model and expands on the conventional neighborhood, distance, and economic matrices by constructing a spatial weight matrix that reflects talent flow. The findings indicate that population movement exhibits spatial clustering patterns. The regional government's talent policy, primarily based on talent evaluation and incentives, positively influences population inflow. Moreover, during the implementation of talent policies, local governments demonstrate cooperative relationships. The inter-regional spillover effect between talent evaluation and talent incentives is significantly positive. In other words, a stronger local talent evaluation policy, along with robust talent incentives, encourages population inflow from neighboring provinces. However, this conclusion may vary in different regions and over time. Recently, the spatial spillover effect of population inflow and the impact of talent policies have not shown significant results. Additionally, the attractiveness of talent evaluation in the eastern region surpasses that of talent incentives, while the opposite holds true for the central and western regions. This study investigates the impact of local government talent policies on population inflow and its spatial spillover effect, offering theoretical support for intergovernmental cooperation.展开更多
This paper presents an analysis of the effects of the Hangzhou-Ningbo Expressway (in Zhejiang Province of the People' s Republic of China) on the region' s economic development. An econometric model shows the...This paper presents an analysis of the effects of the Hangzhou-Ningbo Expressway (in Zhejiang Province of the People' s Republic of China) on the region' s economic development. An econometric model shows the estimated contributions attributable to the expressway have increased year by year. And statistical data indicate that the Hangzhou-Ningbo Expressway has promoted to some extent the region's economic devel-opment in various aspects.展开更多
Data from the World Federation of Exchanges show that Brazil＇s Sao Paulo stock exchange is one of the largest worldwide in terms of market value. Thus, the objective of this study is to obtain univariate and bivariat...Data from the World Federation of Exchanges show that Brazil＇s Sao Paulo stock exchange is one of the largest worldwide in terms of market value. Thus, the objective of this study is to obtain univariate and bivariate forecasting models based on intraday data from the futures and spot markets of the BOVESPA index. The interest is to verify if there exist arbitrage opportunities in Brazilian financial market. To this end, three econometric forecasting models were built： ARFIMA, vector autoregressive （VAR）, and vector error correction （VEC）. Furthermore, it presents the results of a Granger causality test for the aforementioned series. This type of study shows that it is important to identify arbitrage opportunities in financial markets and, in particular, in the application of these models on data of this nature. In terms of the forecasts made with these models, VEC showed better results. The causality test shows that futures BOVESPA index Granger causes spot BOVESPA index. This result may indicate arbitrage opportunities in Brazil.展开更多
文摘This study aims to reveal the spatial structural characteristics of 1,652 Ethnic-Minority Villages(EMV)in China and to analyze the mechanisms driving their spatial heterogeneity.EMV are a special type of settlement space that preserve a large number of historical traces of the ethnic culture of ancient China.They are important carriers of China’s excellent traditional culture and are key to the implementation of rural revitalization strategies.In this study,1652 EMV in China were selected as the research subjects.The Nearest Neighbor Index,kernel density,and spatial autocorrelation index were employed to reveal the spatial structural characteristics of minority villages.Neural network models,spatial lag models,and geographical detectors were used to analyze the formation mechanism of spatial heterogeneity in EMV.The results indicate that:(1)EMV exhibit significant spatial differentiation characterized by“single-core with multiple surrounding sub-centers,”“polarization between east and west,”“decreasing quantity from southwest to east coast to northeast to northwest,”and“large dispersion with small agglomeration.”(2)EMV are mainly distributed in areas rich in intangible cultural heritage,with high vegetation coverage and low altitude,far from central cities,and having limited arable land and an underdeveloped economy and transportation,particularly in shaded or riverbank areas.(3)Distance from the nearest river(X3),distance from central cities(X8),national intangible cultural heritage(X9),and NDVI(X10)were the main driving factors affecting the spatial distribution of EMV,whereas elevation(X1)and GDP(X5)had the weakest influence.As EMV are a relatively unique territorial spatial unit,the identification of their spatial heterogeneity characteristics not only deepens the research content of settlement geography,but also involves the assessment,protection,and development of Minority Villages,which is of great significance for the inheritance and utilization of excellent ethnic cultures in the era.
基金Under the auspices of National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2023YFB4302200)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71831002,72174053)+1 种基金Liaoning Province Xingliao Talent Plan(No.XLYC2008030)Talent Planning in Dalian(No.2022RG05)。
文摘In the context of building a country with a strong transportation network,railway container transportation(RCT)is an import-ant means of reducing costs,increasing efficiency,and adjusting transportation structures.Thus,its impact on regional economic devel-opment is important.Based on data from railway container-handling stations and spatial econometric models,this study discusses the differences in the development of RCT and their impact on regional economic development at different leves.This study has three main findings:first,there are significant regional differences in the development of the RCT.The intra-regional differences between the east-ern and central regions of China(which do not include Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)are gradually narrowing,while the regional dif-ferences in the western region are widening.Meanwhile,the intra-regional differences in important economic zones such as Pearl River Delta Economic Zone(PRDEZ),Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone(CYEZ),Bohai Rim Economic Zone(BHEZ),and Yangtze River Delta Economic Zone(YRDEZ)are narrowing daily.Second,the development differences of RCT in regional level and import-ant economic regions level show different trends.The unbalanced features of large regions are increasingly evident,whereas the differ-ences in economic regions are decreasing.However,the problem of overlapping RCT remains prominent.Third,the transformation of RCT development mode and fierce competition among transportation modes cause RCT to have a restraining effect on the regional eco-nomy at three levels.Rational allocation of resources and other means must be used to guide the transformation from inhibition to pro-motion,and by formulating targeted policies that will promote the development of RCT,which will improve the transportation structure and help construct a country with a strong transportation system.
文摘To address climate change,the world needs deep decarbonization to achieve carbon neutrality(CN),which implies net-zero human-caused CO_(2) emissions in the atmosphere.This study used emission-side drivers,including socioeconomic and net primary productivity(NPP)-based factors,to determine the changes in CN based on vegetation carbon sequestration in the case of China during 2001-2015.Spatial exploratory analysis as well as the combined use of production-theoretical decomposition analysis(PDA)and an econometric model were also utilized.We showed that CN was significantly spatially correlated over the study period;Yunnan,Heilongjiang,and Jilin presented positive spatial autocorrelations,whereas Guizhou showed a negative spatial autocorrelation.More than half of CN declined over the period during which potential energy intensity(PEIE)and energy usage technological change were the largest negative and positive drivers for increasing CN.PEIE played a significantly negative role in increasing CN.We advise policymakers to focus more on emission-side drivers(e.g.,energy intensity)in addition to strengthening NPP management to achieve CN.
基金Supported by the MOE(Ministry of Education in China)Project of Humanities and Social Sciences(19YJA790105).
文摘This paper analyzes and compares the key factors influencing food security in two populous countries(China and India),and cate-gorizes them into three types:agricultural production,economic development and income level,and income distribution.Using the prevalence of undernourishment as an indicator of food security,the paper empirically tests the degree of impact of various factors on food security in both countries using Tobit regression and Newey regression methods.The study finds that improving the level of economic development can significantly enhance food security in both countriesꎻreducing the Gini coefficient has a significant impact on India,but not on Chinaꎻincreasing the agricultural production per capita has a much greater effect on China than on India.Therefore,both countries should take measures that are both similar and different according to their national conditions to improve their food security level.
基金Supported by the Major Project of National Social Science Fund of China(No.16ZDA026)
文摘Metropolitan cities in China have become a major economic hubs with an unprecedented increase of land use and decline of environmental resources. Based on a simple and abstract forest conservation model, this paper attempts to explain changes of forest resources caused by urban sprawl. Through the research, it is found that high level of regional human capital is beneficial to curb urban sprawl. In this vein the model presents the urban forest conservation cost strategy at the Nash equilibrium of varied discount factor and parameter control.
基金Supported by the Key Research Subject of Economic Census of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps(201004)the President Fund for Natural Science Project of Tarim University(TDZKSS09010)+1 种基金the Quality Project of Tarim University(TDZGKC09085)the Quality Project of Tarim University(TDZGTD09004)
文摘Agricultural input and output status in southern Xinjiang,China is introduced,such as lack of agricultural input,low level of agricultural modernization,excessive fertilizer use,serious damage of environment,shortage of water resources,tremendous pressure on ecological balance,insignificant economic and social benefits of agricultural production in southern Xinjiang,agriculture remaining a weak industry,agricultural economy as the economic subject of southern Xinjiang,and backward economic development of southern Xinjiang.Taking the Aksu area as an example,according to the input and output data in the years 2002-2007,input-output model about regional agriculture of the southern Xinjiang is established by principal component analysis.DPS software is used in the process of solving the model.Then,Eviews software is adopted to revise and test the model in order to analyze and evaluate the economic significance of the results obtained,and to make additional explanations of the relevant model.Since the agricultural economic output is seriously restricted in southern Xinjiang at present,the following countermeasures are put forward,such as adjusting the structure of agricultural land,improving the utilization ratio of land,increasing agricultural input,realizing agricultural modernization,rationally utilizing water resources,maintaining eco-environmental balance,enhancing the awareness of agricultural insurance,minimizing the risk and loss,taking the road of industrialization of characteristic agricultural products,and realizing the transfer of surplus labor force.
文摘This study explores the Exposure at Default(EAD)emanating from credit events undertaken by listed banking corporations trading on emerging markets,such as Zimbabwe’s Stock Exchange(ZSE)or market in the dollarization era,namely period 2010-2012.The dollarization of the Zimbabwean economy in 2009 coincided with the recovery of the global financial economy from the worst worldwide economic recession ever experienced in this world.The study used audited and published data drawn from financial statements of two banking corporations for the period 2010 to 2012 that were accessible on ZSE website.These data were presented and analyzed using Eviews7.The study revealed that there were a lot of non-performing loans drawn from EADs of banking corporations trading on the ZSE in the period under review.The study further noted that credit exposures issued by commercial banks in the period 2010-2012 were also exposed to risk from the nature of the borrowers,banks’internal and external market variables.The variables that impacted on banks’credit exposures include political,social,industrial,unemployment,technological challenges,state of financial markets,their capitalization and liquidity statuses.We therefore conclude that banks in emerging markets need to efficiently and effectively manage their credit portfolios in their desire to grow towards sustainable development.The study also concludes that banks in emerging markets that are into lending activities should adopt and implement financial econometric(EAD)models that are easy to apply,practical,pragmatic,and adjusted for market friction.The study recommends that listed banking corporations in emerging markets need to adhere to the requirements of the Basel Ⅱ and Ⅲ Capital Accords if they are to make meaningful business out of their credit exposure operations.It also recommends that banks should come up with capitalization and investment strategies that suit their economic conditions if they are to grow and develop sizeable market shares and wealth from their lending businesses.Finally the study recommends that banks in emerging economies should adapt to international business standards,strategies,ethics,and corporate governance parameters if they are to grow towards greater similarity with those in developed nations in their service delivery to the stakeholders and contribution to nation building and sustainable development.
基金supported by the Danish Strategic Research Council as part of the TOPWASTE project
文摘Within the European Union (EU) a paradigm shift is currently occurring in the waste sector, where EU waste directives and national waste strategies are placing emphasis on resource efficiency and recycling targets. The most recent Danish resource strategy calculates a national recycling rate of 22% for household waste, and sets an ambitious goal of a 50% recycling rate by 2020. This study integrates the recycling target into the FRIDA model to project how much waste and from which streams should be diverted from incineration to recycling in order to achieve the target. Furthermore, it discusses how the existing technological, organizational and legislative frameworks may affect recycling activities. The results of the analysis show that with current best practice recycling rates, the 50% recycling rate cannot be reached without recycling of household biowaste. It also shows that all Danish municipalities will need to make efforts to recover all recyclable fractions, and that the increased recycling efforts of only selected municipalities will not be sufficient to reach the target.
基金Asian Development Bank(ADB)Technical Assistance(TA)on the Integration of Tourism in Qinghai Province Into the Belt and Road Initiative(149788-S53524).
文摘Qinghai is the strategic base and important fulcrum of the Belt and Road Initiative while tourism is a strategic pillar industry in Qinghai Province.Due to its rich tourism resources and unique ecological environment,the integration of tourism in Qinghai into the Belt and Road has attracted great attention of the Asian Development Bank(ADB).With the spatial data of tourism elements POI and the statistical data of 44 counties in Qinghai to analyze the characteristics and influencing factors of the spatial agglomeration of tourism in Qinghai,the paper conducts research on spatial coupling and concludes with the following results:The spatial agglomeration of tourism in Qinghai presents the distribution pattern of“one circle and one belt”;economic density and population density play an important role in the formation of the spatial agglomeration pattern of tourism with some spatial spillovers;Belt and Road has a significant impact on the promotion of tourism agglomeration in Qinghai.The paper suggests that tourism in Qinghai should fully integrate into the Belt and Road,giving full play to the guiding role of Belt and Road in the allocation of social and economic resources,and optimizing the spatial layout.
基金Under the auspices of National Planning Office of Philosophy and Social Science(No.17BRK010)。
文摘Urban agglomeration(UA)is an advanced spatial economic form formed and developed in the process of rapid industrialization and urbanization,and an important carrier of urbanization and economic development.The economy has developed rapidly in the recent decades of China,and the UAs have also developed rapidly.However,as a large population country,the population distribution and changes of UAs in China has unique characteristics.Using the fifth,sixth and seventh population census data,spatial auto-correlation and spatial econometric models,we analyzed the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of population agglomeration in China’s UAs.Results revealed that:1)from 2000 to 2020,the population gradually converged into UAs,and the characteristics of population agglomeration in different development degree of UAs differ.The higher the development degree of UA,the higher the population agglomeration degree.Besides,UAs are the main area with the most significant population agglomeration degree,and the spatial autocorrelation show that the cities with similar degree tend to be concentrated in space.The urban population gathering in UAs has a certain positive spillover effect on population size of neighboring cities.2)Economic development and social conditions factors are important factors affecting population agglomeration degree in UAs.The main factors of population gather into UAs are similar with the outside UAs,but the positive promotion of urbanization rate and proportion of tertiary industry in GDP on population agglomeration of UAs in China are enhancing from 2000 to 2020.Meanwhile,the other factors,such as high-quality public services,good urban living environment conditions,high-quality medical and educational resources,are also important factors to promote urban population gather into UAs.This study provides a basis for formulating the development planning of UAs in China,and enriches the relevant theoretical research of population evolution and influencing factors of UAs.
基金the National Natural Sci-ence Foundation of China(Grant No.42001139)the Second Ti-betan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(Grant No.2019QZKK0406)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42230510)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2020M670472).
文摘Investigating the spatiotemporal variation of human activity intensity and its determinants is a crucial basis for further revealing the mechanism of human-environment interaction and optimizing the human development mode.In this study,the human activity intensity on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP)from 1990 to 2020 was measured based on the quantitative model of land use data and the actual regional background,and the under-lying natural and socioeconomic determinants were investigated using spatial econometric methods.The results demonstrate that(1)the human activity intensity in QTP has increased by 11.96%,and there are differences in different spatial scales;the areas with high human activity intensity are distributed in the Hehuang Valley where Xining City and its surrounding areas are located,as well as the One-River and Two-River Area where Lhasa City and surrounding areas are located.(2)Human activity intensity has significant positive spatial spillover,suggesting that local changes will cause changes in the same direction in adjacent areas.(3)The human activ-ity intensity in QTP is affected by various determinants.Concerning socioeconomic factors,the economic level has no significant impact on the human activity intensity in QTP,which differs from the general regional law.Both urbanization and traffic conditions have a significant positive effect,and the impact intensity continues to increase.Concerning natural factors,topographic relief has a significant positive effect;the impacts of temper-ature and vegetation coverage have changed from insignificant to a significant positive effect;the impacts of precipitation and river network density have not been verified;there is no linear relationship between altitude and human activity intensity in the entire QTP,while it exists in local regions.Finally,this study proposes three policy implications for the realization of a more harmonious human-environment relationship in QTP.
文摘There is plenty of forests in Northeast China which contributes a lot to the conservation of water and land resources, produces timber products, and provides habitats for a huge number of wild animals and plants. With changes of socio-economic factors as well as the geophysical conditions, there are dramatic changes on the spatial patterns of forest area. In this sense, it is of great significance to shed light on the dynamics of forest area changes to find the underlining reasons for shaping the changing patterns of forest area in Northeast China. To explore the dynamics of forest area change in Northeast China, an econometric model is developed which is composed of three equations identifying forestry production, conversion from open forest to closed forest and conversion from other land uses to closed forest so as to explore the impacts on the forest area changes from demographic, social, economic, location and geophysical factors. On this basis, we employ the Dynamics of Land System （DLS） model to simulate land-use conversions between forest area and non-forest cover and the land-use conversions within the sub-classes of forest area for the period 2000-2020 under business as usual scenario, environmental protection scenario and economic growth scenario. The simulation results show that forest area will expand continuously and there exist various kinds of changing patterns for the sub-classes of forest area, for example, closed forest will expand continuously and open forest and shrub will decrease a little bit, while area of other forest will keep intact. The research results provide meaningful decision-making information for conserving and exploiting the forest resources and makJng out the planning for forestry production Jn the Northeast China region.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40801231Knowledge Innovation Program of the CAS, No.KZCX2-YW-326-1+3 种基金 No.KZCX2-YW-305-2 No.KSCX1-YW-09-04National Key Technology R&D Program of China, No.2006BAC08B03 No.2006BAC08B06
文摘This article explores the factors and mechanism driving the land-use conversion at regional level by developing and using an econometric approach which is called the simultaneous equations model （SEM）. A case study in Jiangxi Province of China is conducted by establishing the SEM, which consists of three equations including agricultural production, land conversion of cultivated land to built-up area and land conversion of cultivated land to forest cover/grassland from 1988 to 2005. And then this paper employs the method of piecewise estimation to represent the influences of the factors such as population, society, economy, location and geophysical conditions on the process of land-use conversion in Jiangxi Province. Estimation results show that population is a predominant factor driving the land-use conversion at counties, while social and economic factors are determinant factors in the short term for the entire Jiangxi Province. Specifically, the size of agricultural population and the magnitude of agricultural input determine the agricultural production to a large extent; population size, plain area proportion at counties and land management policies together affect the direction and magnitude of conversion between cultivated land and built-up area; agricultural population proportion, terrain slope, grain production and non-agricultural industry promote the conversion of cultivated land to forest cover/grassland. Furthermore, the explored mechanism also reveals the underlying causes of the land use changes driven by a series of factors in Jiangxi Province. Finally, this paper concludes that factors proven to play an important role in driving the land-use conversion need to be considered when the land management agencies make out the land use planning to optimize the land use, expand the agricultural production, and conserve the cultivated land.
基金Under the auspices of Key Program of the National Social Science Fund of China(No.16ASH007)。
文摘In this study,an inventory analysis approach was used to investigate the intensity of agricultural non-point source pollution(ANSP)and its spatial convergence at national and provincial levels in China from 1999 to 2017.On this basis,spatial factors affecting ANSP were explored by constructing a spatial econometric model.The results indicate that:1)The intensity of China's ANSP emission showed an overall upward trend and an obvious spatial difference,with the values being high in the eastern and central regions and relatively low in the western region.2)Significant spatial agglomeration was shown in China's ANSP intensity,and the agglomeration effect was increasing gradually.3)In the convergence analysis,a spatial lag model was found applicable for interpretation of the ANSP intensity,with the convergence rate being accelerated after considering the spatial factors but slower than that of regional economic growth.4)The spatial factors affecting the ANSP intensity are shown to be reduced by improving agricultural infrastructure investment,labor-force quality,and crop production ratio,while the expansion of agricultural economy scale and precipitation and runoff have positive impact on ANSP in the study region.However,agricultural research and development(R&D)investment showed no direct significant effect on the ANSP intensity.Meanwhile,improving the quality of the labor force would significantly reduce the ANSP intensity in the surrounding areas,while the precipitation and runoff would significantly increase the pollution of neighboring regions.This research has laid a theoretical basis for formulation and optimization of ANSP prevention strategies in China and related regions.
基金sponsored by the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,Research on the Residential Liveability and Reconstruction of Typical Mountainous Settlements in Southwest China(No.KZCX2-EW317)The Western Light Talent Training Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,Public services Efficiency of Central Towns in Western Mountainous Areas of Sichuan(NO.Y2R2230230)+1 种基金the Humanities and Social Sciences Youth Project of Ministry of Education in China,Evolution and Optimisation of Spatial Structure of Urbanisation in Mountainous Areas(No.14YJCZH130)"135"Directional Program of Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Study on the Development Type and Space Optimisation of Settlement and Urbanisation in Upper Reaches of Minjiang River Basin(No.SDS-135-1204-04 110ZK20013)
文摘This article examines the spatial characteristics of public service supply and the factors influencing such supply in cities of Sichuan Province, China using spatial-autocorrelation and spatial econometric models with statistical data in 2012. The results demonstrate that expenditures on different types of public services present different spatial autocorrelation patterns. Although the spatial differences in basic public service expenditures are relatively small, a clear fan-shaped spillover to the east can be seen in Chengdu City. Chengdu also shows high clustering of advanced public service expenditures, being a typical core-periphery pattern. Post-earthquake reconstruction expenditures are clustered in the "5.12 Wenchuan earthquake" region and spill over toward cities to the east. The efficiency of public services in the mountainous areas in western Sichuan is low and exhibits a pattern of low-low spatial autocorrelation. The efficiency of public service supply is affected by economic, social, political and geographical factors. Based on the results of this analysis, we recommend a supply strategy that incorporates different types of public services and a specialized public service supply strategy for mountainous areas. Overall public service efficiency should be enhanced by focusing on narrowing the gap in farmers' income among regions and accelerating urbanization. Decision-makers should consider moresupportive policies with regard to providing basic public services in mountainous areas to ensure an equalized supply of basic public services. To enhance the efficiency of advanced public service supply, additional growth pole should be encouraged and incentivized; however, investments are required to drive the development of the peripheral regions through regional economic integration. Both software and hardware types of infrastructure are required to supply services efficiently during post-disaster reconstruction.
基金Under the auspices of Chinese Ministry of Education Humanities and Social Sciences Project(No.19YJCZH241)Project of Chongqing Social Science Planning Project of China(No.2020QNGL38)+1 种基金Science and Technology Research Program of Chongqing Education Commission of China(No.KJQN201901143)Humanities and Social Sciences Research Program of Chongqing Education Commission of China(No.20SKGH169)。
文摘In this study,we developed an evaluation index system for green total-factor water-use efficiency(GTFWUE)which reflected both economic and green efficiencies of water resource utilization.Then we measured the GTFWUE of 30 provinces/municipalities/autonomous regions(hereafter provinces)in China(not including Tibet,Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan as no data)from 2000 to 2018 using a minimum distance to the strong frontier model that contained an undesirable output.We further analyzed the regional differences and spatial correlations of GTFWUE using these values based on Global and Local Moran’s I statistics,and empirically determined the factors affecting GTFWUE using a spatial econometric model.The evaluation results revealed that the GTFWUE differed substantially between the regions.The provinces with high and low GTFWUE values were located in the coastal and inland areas of China,respectively.The eastern region had a significantly higher GTFWUE than the central and western regions.The GTFWUEs for all three regions(eastern,central,and western regions)decreased slowly from 2000 to 2011(except 2005),remained stable from 2012 to 2016,and rapidly increased in 2017 before decreasing again in 2018.We found significant spatial correlations between the provincial GTFWUEs.The GTFWUE for most provinces belonged to the high-high or low-low cluster region,revealing a significant spatial clustering effect of provincial GTFWUEs.We also found that China’s GTFWUE was highly promoted by economic growth,population size,opening-up level,and urbanization level,and was evidently hindered by water endowment,technological progress,and government influence.However,the water-use structure had little impact on GTFWUE.This study fully demonstrated that the water use mode would be improved,and water resources needed to be used more efficiently and green in China.Moreover,based on the findings of this study,several policy recommendations were proposed from the aspects of cross-regional cooperation,economy,society,and institution.
文摘This study provides a harmonization framework for common capital flight policies in Africa.It builds on evidence of persistent extreme poverty in the continent to assess how common measures can be adopted by sampled countries on one cause of extreme poverty:capital flight.The dataset is sub-divided into fundamental characteristics of African capital flight based on income levels,legal foundations,natural resources,political stability,regional proximity,and religious domination.The main finding shows that from a projection date of 2010,a feasible timeframe for harmonizing policies is between 2016 and 2023.This timeframe coincides with the beginning of the post-2015 agenda on sustainable development goals.
基金Supported by the Social and Science Fund of Xinjiang(17BKS008)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71988101)。
文摘To analyze the spatial influence mechanism of talent policy on population flow, this study compares the government work reports of 31 provinces between 2008 and 2020, and quantifies regional talent policies in nine aspects, including talent evaluation and incentives, utilizing a comprehensive, standardized, and continuous approach. Additionally, this paper develops a spatial econometric analysis model and expands on the conventional neighborhood, distance, and economic matrices by constructing a spatial weight matrix that reflects talent flow. The findings indicate that population movement exhibits spatial clustering patterns. The regional government's talent policy, primarily based on talent evaluation and incentives, positively influences population inflow. Moreover, during the implementation of talent policies, local governments demonstrate cooperative relationships. The inter-regional spillover effect between talent evaluation and talent incentives is significantly positive. In other words, a stronger local talent evaluation policy, along with robust talent incentives, encourages population inflow from neighboring provinces. However, this conclusion may vary in different regions and over time. Recently, the spatial spillover effect of population inflow and the impact of talent policies have not shown significant results. Additionally, the attractiveness of talent evaluation in the eastern region surpasses that of talent incentives, while the opposite holds true for the central and western regions. This study investigates the impact of local government talent policies on population inflow and its spatial spillover effect, offering theoretical support for intergovernmental cooperation.
文摘This paper presents an analysis of the effects of the Hangzhou-Ningbo Expressway (in Zhejiang Province of the People' s Republic of China) on the region' s economic development. An econometric model shows the estimated contributions attributable to the expressway have increased year by year. And statistical data indicate that the Hangzhou-Ningbo Expressway has promoted to some extent the region's economic devel-opment in various aspects.
文摘Data from the World Federation of Exchanges show that Brazil＇s Sao Paulo stock exchange is one of the largest worldwide in terms of market value. Thus, the objective of this study is to obtain univariate and bivariate forecasting models based on intraday data from the futures and spot markets of the BOVESPA index. The interest is to verify if there exist arbitrage opportunities in Brazilian financial market. To this end, three econometric forecasting models were built： ARFIMA, vector autoregressive （VAR）, and vector error correction （VEC）. Furthermore, it presents the results of a Granger causality test for the aforementioned series. This type of study shows that it is important to identify arbitrage opportunities in financial markets and, in particular, in the application of these models on data of this nature. In terms of the forecasts made with these models, VEC showed better results. The causality test shows that futures BOVESPA index Granger causes spot BOVESPA index. This result may indicate arbitrage opportunities in Brazil.
