In contrast to the traditional Western approach to macro-fiscal management,China’s proactive fiscal policy is founded on a people-centered development philosophy and,with distinctive Chinese characteristics,is a sign...In contrast to the traditional Western approach to macro-fiscal management,China’s proactive fiscal policy is founded on a people-centered development philosophy and,with distinctive Chinese characteristics,is a significant policy innovation of macroeconomic management in the Chinese modernization.Although there are notable distinctions between the Western“Keynesian”and the“nonKeynesian”schools of thought,both of these approaches’core policy goals and methodological roots are the same,composing the traditional Western macro-fiscal approach.This approach faces increasing real dilemmas.China’s proactive fiscal policy,however,places greater emphasis on future potential growth rates in addition to equilibrium between supply and demand,achieving a fiscal policy transformation with a new approach.In this paper we argue that with such a new approach,China should reconsider the nature and reasonable level of the fiscal deficit,the function and risk assessment criteria of government debt,the scope and effects of reductions in taxes and fees,its approach and focus of demand management,and the costs and resulting efficiencies of policies in order to develop a new fiscal policy paradigm that is more in line with its stated goals.展开更多
Can green fiscal policy(GFP)incentivize the proliferation of urban green innovation(GI)and be a novel cata‐lyst for energy conservation and emission reduction within the“dual-carbon”framework?This paper explores GF...Can green fiscal policy(GFP)incentivize the proliferation of urban green innovation(GI)and be a novel cata‐lyst for energy conservation and emission reduction within the“dual-carbon”framework?This paper explores GFP ramifications for GI by implementing a difference-in-differences model in a natural experiment centered on the“Comprehensive Demonstration City of Energy Saving and Emission Reduction Fiscal Policies”.The em‐pirical analysis reveals several key findings:(1)GFP exhibits significant augmentation at the GI level,with an observable evolutionary trend of increasing marginal impact.Importantly,these outcomes withstand rigorous robustness tests,including propensity score matching.(2)A mechanism analysis elucidates the dual impact of GFP on GI growth.GFP directly fosters GI advancement indirectly by promoting talent aggregation,expanding scientific and technological investment,and attracting external financial resources.(3)A heterogeneity analy‐sis demonstrates that GFP enhancement of GI is closely associated with the patent category,manifesting a dis‐tinct pattern of“eastern region>other regions”and“non-resource cities>resource cities”.The study’s em‐pirical findings offer crucial real-world insights to guide the Chinese government in formulating a more effi‐cient GFP and facilitating the expansion of innovative endeavors while contributing to environmentally sus‐tainable and high-value development.展开更多
This paper empirically examined the impact of fiscal policy on inflation in Nigeria.Time series data on inflation,government revenue,government expenditure,and gross domestic product were sourced from the Central Bank...This paper empirically examined the impact of fiscal policy on inflation in Nigeria.Time series data on inflation,government revenue,government expenditure,and gross domestic product were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria(CBN).The aforementioned secondary data cover the period from 1981 to 2021.The Augmented Dickey Fuller(ADF)unit root test and Johansen co-integration test were used to testing for data stationarity and the existence or otherwise of co-integrating equations respectively.Thereafter,data were analyzed using Ordinary Least Square and Parsimonious Error Correction techniques.Findings from the study show that government expenditure and revenue both have a positive relationship with the rate of inflation,though the latter is not statistically significant.Also,there is a positive but insignificant relationship between inflation and gross domestic product.In line with the above findings,we,therefore,recommend that the Nigerian government at all levels(local,state,and federal)should be tactful in the use of fiscal policy tools to avoid triggering inflationary pressure and its negative multiplier effects on the welfare of its citizenry.展开更多
This paper employs a stochastic endogenous growth model extended to the case of a recursive utility function which can disentangle intertemporal substitution from risk aversion to analyze productive government expendi...This paper employs a stochastic endogenous growth model extended to the case of a recursive utility function which can disentangle intertemporal substitution from risk aversion to analyze productive government expenditure and optimal fiscal policy, particularly stresses the importance of factor income. First, the explicit solutions of the central planner＇s stochastic optimization problem are derived, the growth maximizing and welfare-maximizing government expenditure policies are obtained and their standing in conflict or coincidence depends upon intertemporal substitution. Second, the explicit solutions of the representative individual＇s stochastic optimization problem which permits to tax on capital income and labor income separately are derived ,and it is found that the effect of risk on growth crucially depends on the degree of risk aversion,the intertemporal elasticity of substitution and the capital income share. Finally, a flexible optimal tax policy which can be internally adjusted to a certain extent is derived, and it is found that the distribution of factor income plays an important role in designing the optimal tax policy.展开更多
Agents response equilibrium (ARE) model has been taken advantage of to build a multi-agent system for analyzing fiscal policy effect. Through establishing various types of economic entities and endowing them with abil...Agents response equilibrium (ARE) model has been taken advantage of to build a multi-agent system for analyzing fiscal policy effect. Through establishing various types of economic entities and endowing them with abilities to react and make decision, the whole system will evolve to new conditions in response to policy change. Compared with different scenarios, it can be concluded that when raising taxation ratio, sectoral scale will shrink to some extent. But supported by government expenditure, certain sectors could be kept in comparatively larger production scale.展开更多
The impact of Polish fiscal policy on economy after accession to the euro area is analyzed in the article. It was found that government spending financed by distortionary taxation affects output in a different way tha...The impact of Polish fiscal policy on economy after accession to the euro area is analyzed in the article. It was found that government spending financed by distortionary taxation affects output in a different way than in case of government spending financed by bonds. Poland＇s accession to the Economic and Monetary Union will reduce the possibility of increased government spending financed by bonds, which in light of the presented model will greatly reduce the possibility of stimulating the economy through fiscal policy.展开更多
This paper （1） discusses how the two indicators used in official statistics of China, namely total investment in fixed assets and the gross fixed capital formation, reflect changes infixed asset investment and their...This paper （1） discusses how the two indicators used in official statistics of China, namely total investment in fixed assets and the gross fixed capital formation, reflect changes infixed asset investment and their relationship, （2） analyzes the growth of fixed asset investment and its contribution to changes of economic growth rate since the reform and opening-up, and （3） explains how fiscal policy impacts the growth of fixed asset investment and analyzes in detail the impacts of the two rounds of contractionary fiscal policy, two rounds of expansionary fiscal policy and one round of neutral fiscal policy on China＇ s fixed asset investment growth since reform and opening-up using full and accurate data. Practice shows that the impact of fiscal policy on China＇ s fixed asset investment is direct and obvious, yet sometimes too drastic. In the future, fiscal policy should be used in alignment with other economic policies with appropriate intensity and timing so that it will help stabilize the growth of fixed asset investment.展开更多
Harmonious fiscal policy is the Inner requirement for Constructing Harmonious society and is an important means of realiziug such society. The harmonious fiscal policy should realize the harmony of “two hands”, the ...Harmonious fiscal policy is the Inner requirement for Constructing Harmonious society and is an important means of realiziug such society. The harmonious fiscal policy should realize the harmony of “two hands”, the harmony of values, the unity of short-term and long-term harmony the unity of parts and the whole harmony, the unity of internal and external efficacy harmony. To scientifically evaluate harmony of fiscal policy is the prerequisite to bring harmonious fiscal policy to its full play.展开更多
China will continue to implement its proactive fiscal policy in 2011 and better handle the relations between maintaining steady and relatively fast economic development, restructuring the
China’s proactive fiscal policy adheres to the development ideology centered around the people and differs from the traditional Western logic of macro-fiscal policy.It bears distinct Chinese characteristics and repre...China’s proactive fiscal policy adheres to the development ideology centered around the people and differs from the traditional Western logic of macro-fiscal policy.It bears distinct Chinese characteristics and represents a significant macroeconomic governance policy innovation in China’s process of modernization.Despite the considerable differences between the perspectives of the Keynesian tradition and the non-Keynesian tradition,their policy objectives and methodological foundations are broadly similar,constituting the traditional Western logic of macro-fiscal policy.Currently,this logic is facing increasing practical challenges.In contrast,China’s proactive fiscal policy not only aims to restore supply-demand balance and potential growth levels but also emphasizes enhancing future potential growth rates,marking a transformation from the traditional Western logic to a new logic.It is essential to emphasize that under this new logic,forming a new fiscal policy paradigm requires a reevaluation of the nature and appropriate scale of fiscal deficits,the role and risk measurement standards of government debt,the space and effectiveness of reduction of taxes and administrative fees,demand management methods and priorities,as well as policy costs and efficiency,among other fundamental categories.展开更多
By constructing a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model that embeds structural fiscal policy and contains two types of households,labor intermediaries,manufacturers,the central bank,and fisca...By constructing a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model that embeds structural fiscal policy and contains two types of households,labor intermediaries,manufacturers,the central bank,and fiscal departments,and based on China's macroeconomic controls that combine proactive fiscal policy with prudent monetary policy in the context of supply-side structural reform,this paper compares and analyzes the macroeconomic effects of the various types of proactive fiscal policy instruments,and measures the impact of the choice of anchors for monetary policy on the long-term welfare loss caused by the various fiscal policy instruments.This study finds that the consumption-oriented fiscal expenditure increase and labor income tax reduction policies have the most significant macroeconomic stimulus effects in the short term,but attention should be paid to the disadvantage that they may lead to the rise of government debt risks;and in the long term,the role of production-oriented fiscal expenditure policies in guaranteeing the stable operations of China's economy should be brought into play.In addition,once the implementation of proactive fiscal policy lasts for too long,their long-term effects may be weakened,with negative macroeconomic impacts.In order to mitigate the resulting long-term economic fluctuations and welfare loss,prudent monetary policy should be fine-tuned with price stability as the anchor.展开更多
As two main tools of macroeconomic policies,coordination and conflict between fiscal and monetary policies have been paid considerable attention by researchers.Under a structural vector autoregressive model that incor...As two main tools of macroeconomic policies,coordination and conflict between fiscal and monetary policies have been paid considerable attention by researchers.Under a structural vector autoregressive model that incorporates fiscal and monetary policies,this paper analyzes the monetary policy response to fiscal shocks.Our study finds that during the occurrence of a fiscal shock,the growth rate of broad money supply M2 substantially increased,indicating the adoption of an expansionary monetary policy by the monetary authority to fiscal policy expansion.Based on this empirical finding,this paper improves the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to investigate the fiscal policy effects under China’s monetary policy coordination.Our analysis shows that monetary policy coordination will significantly boost the economic stimulus effect of fiscal policy,generating a fiscal crowding-in effect.From the perspective of China’s institutional strength,this conclusion offers a theoretical explanation on the empirical fact of the fiscal crowdingin effect uncovered in the research literature,and offers a policy reference for making the proactive fiscal policy more efficient and effective.This paper suggests that China’s policymakers give full play to the country’s institutional strength by coordinating fiscal and monetary policies for high-quality economic development.展开更多
In the present paper, we use the Markov-switching model to test the nonlinear effects of government expenditure and taxes on private consumption in China. The results show that fiscal policy in China has a significant...In the present paper, we use the Markov-switching model to test the nonlinear effects of government expenditure and taxes on private consumption in China. The results show that fiscal policy in China has a significantly nonlinear effect. In years 1978-1980 and 1984- 1997, the effect of government consumption on private consumption is non-Keynesian. During the same periods, the effect of taxes is also non-Keynesian, but the effect is not significant. The effect of government investment is linear but asymmetric. After retesting the reasons for the existence of nonlinear effects, we find that in China initial fiscal conditions and the magnitude of fiscal consolidations are not related to the nonlinear effects of fiscal policy. The government should pay close attention to the characteristics of commodity and labor markets to identify the conditions and regimes associated with nonlinear effects.展开更多
The prudent fiscal policy adopted in 2005 is the result of adopting a series of measures tostrengthen macro control in recent years. The process of implementation will be gradual.During this period, pushing forward re...The prudent fiscal policy adopted in 2005 is the result of adopting a series of measures tostrengthen macro control in recent years. The process of implementation will be gradual.During this period, pushing forward reforms is the main focus of all the measures. Taxreform, social security system reform and rural reform will need the most emphasis.展开更多
The sustainability of the proactive or expansionary fiscal policy adopted by China since 1998, or the transformation of the proactive fiscal policy, has received great attention domestically and internationally. This ...The sustainability of the proactive or expansionary fiscal policy adopted by China since 1998, or the transformation of the proactive fiscal policy, has received great attention domestically and internationally. This paper summarizes the current situation and future trend of China’s proactive fiscal policy from four aspects.展开更多
At present,most of the research discussing the uncertainty of fiscal policy is based on the total fiscal policy and foreign data.There is no literature on the index construction of China’s total and specific fiscal p...At present,most of the research discussing the uncertainty of fiscal policy is based on the total fiscal policy and foreign data.There is no literature on the index construction of China’s total and specific fiscal policy.By means of the standard data collecting methods of policy uncertainty with China’s contextual characteristics of fiscal policy,this paper constructs China’s fiscal policy uncertainty index.This paper also analyzes the statistical features of China’s fiscal policy uncertainty index and the main factors affecting the uncertainty.Firstly,the index constructed in this paper is robust while the volatility of fiscal expenditure uncertainty is higher than that of the policy.Secondly,the fiscal policy uncertainty index is characterized by regime-switching between“low mean,low volatility”and“high mean,high volatility”.Thirdly,the uncertainty of fiscal policy is closely related to the volatility of economic growth and monetary policy uncertainty.It means that studying the uncertainty of China’s fiscal policy is of practical significance.Finally,domestic factors are the main causes affecting fiscal policy uncertainty.展开更多
The paper reviews the fi scal policies adopted by China in the past 70 years,summarizes their characteristics at different stages and looks into the future fiscal policy options for China.The fiscal policy history sin...The paper reviews the fi scal policies adopted by China in the past 70 years,summarizes their characteristics at different stages and looks into the future fiscal policy options for China.The fiscal policy history since the founding of the People’s Republic of China can be divided into four stages.Stage 1:1949-1952,the market-oriented fi scal policy aiming to restore the national economy;Stage 2:1953-1978,the planned fi scal policy;Stage 3:1978-2012,the fi scal policy accommodating the needs of economic transformation;and Stage 4:2012-present,the fiscal policy accommodating the needs of the new era.A look at the above fiscal policy history draws the following conclusions.(1)The goal of the fiscal policy should be set based on a correct understanding of the role of the state;(2).For the fi scal policy to work,it must respect the fi scal law;(3)The fi scal policy must aim higher than the goal of macroeconomic stability and provide guarantees for industrialization and modernization;(4)The government should understand fi scal defi cits while proactively guarding against fi scal risks;(5)The implementation of the fi scal policy must go hand in hand with the fi scal reform;(6)The funding for the fi scal policy must come from diverse sources;(7)The choice of the fi scal policy should fully consider external impacts.The future fi scal policy should revolve around serving the modernization of china’s governance system and capacity,and serving China’s contribution to the building of a community with a shared future for humanity.We should update our knowledge on the fi scal policy to support the decision-making for the choice of fi scal policy.The goal of fi scal policy should be set in coordination with that of other policies.Moreover,from the perspective of the government’s disposable revenue and cash fl ow,the paper probes into the space and challenges for future fi scal policy and sorts the problems of the transmission mechanism that might prevent the fi scal policy from working.展开更多
In different economic periods,if the government blindly adopts expansionary fiscal policy,it may not be able to effectively increase total factor productivity(TFP).Based on this,this paper constructs a factor augmente...In different economic periods,if the government blindly adopts expansionary fiscal policy,it may not be able to effectively increase total factor productivity(TFP).Based on this,this paper constructs a factor augmented vector autoregressive model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility(SV-TVP-FAVAR),and explores the nonlinear shock effect of China’s fiscal policy on TFP from the dual perspective of aggregate and structure.The study finds that:(1)At the aggregate level,the increase in fiscal expenditure in each period has a signifi cant inhibitory effect on TFP,while the increase in fiscal revenue has a significant promotion effect on TFP;(2)At the structural level of expenditure,in the period of economic depression and high economic growth,the increase in investment expenditure,education expenditure,technology expenditure,and public service expenditure all have a strong incentive effect on TFP,but the increase in science and technology and education expenditure in the period of economic stability has not effectively improved TFP;(3)At the structural level of tax,the increase in commodity tax,including consumption tax,value-added tax,and tariff,and individual income tax will signifi cantly inhibit the increase in TFP,but the increase in corporate income tax can signifi cantly increase TFP.Therefore,under the new economic normal,policy makers should build a two-wheel driven fiscal policy of“aggregate regulation and structural optimization”to optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure and taxation,and promote high-quality economic development.展开更多
In terms of GDP and unemployment, the US's recovery from the crisis wasrelatively rapid. This was in large part due to forceful fiscal policy conducted bythe Obama Administration. This column surveys the lessons f...In terms of GDP and unemployment, the US's recovery from the crisis wasrelatively rapid. This was in large part due to forceful fiscal policy conducted bythe Obama Administration. This column surveys the lessons for other economies,which have seen less-convincing recoveries.展开更多
文摘In contrast to the traditional Western approach to macro-fiscal management,China’s proactive fiscal policy is founded on a people-centered development philosophy and,with distinctive Chinese characteristics,is a significant policy innovation of macroeconomic management in the Chinese modernization.Although there are notable distinctions between the Western“Keynesian”and the“nonKeynesian”schools of thought,both of these approaches’core policy goals and methodological roots are the same,composing the traditional Western macro-fiscal approach.This approach faces increasing real dilemmas.China’s proactive fiscal policy,however,places greater emphasis on future potential growth rates in addition to equilibrium between supply and demand,achieving a fiscal policy transformation with a new approach.In this paper we argue that with such a new approach,China should reconsider the nature and reasonable level of the fiscal deficit,the function and risk assessment criteria of government debt,the scope and effects of reductions in taxes and fees,its approach and focus of demand management,and the costs and resulting efficiencies of policies in order to develop a new fiscal policy paradigm that is more in line with its stated goals.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foun‐dation of China[Grant No.72163018]the Yunnan Philosophy and So‐cial Science Planning Project[Grant No.ZD202206]+1 种基金the Yunnan Col‐lege Students’Innovation and Entrepreneurship Training Program[Grant No.S202310674173]Zhejiang college students’science and technology innovation activity plan and new talent plan[Grant No.2022R408A001].
文摘Can green fiscal policy(GFP)incentivize the proliferation of urban green innovation(GI)and be a novel cata‐lyst for energy conservation and emission reduction within the“dual-carbon”framework?This paper explores GFP ramifications for GI by implementing a difference-in-differences model in a natural experiment centered on the“Comprehensive Demonstration City of Energy Saving and Emission Reduction Fiscal Policies”.The em‐pirical analysis reveals several key findings:(1)GFP exhibits significant augmentation at the GI level,with an observable evolutionary trend of increasing marginal impact.Importantly,these outcomes withstand rigorous robustness tests,including propensity score matching.(2)A mechanism analysis elucidates the dual impact of GFP on GI growth.GFP directly fosters GI advancement indirectly by promoting talent aggregation,expanding scientific and technological investment,and attracting external financial resources.(3)A heterogeneity analy‐sis demonstrates that GFP enhancement of GI is closely associated with the patent category,manifesting a dis‐tinct pattern of“eastern region>other regions”and“non-resource cities>resource cities”.The study’s em‐pirical findings offer crucial real-world insights to guide the Chinese government in formulating a more effi‐cient GFP and facilitating the expansion of innovative endeavors while contributing to environmentally sus‐tainable and high-value development.
文摘This paper empirically examined the impact of fiscal policy on inflation in Nigeria.Time series data on inflation,government revenue,government expenditure,and gross domestic product were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria(CBN).The aforementioned secondary data cover the period from 1981 to 2021.The Augmented Dickey Fuller(ADF)unit root test and Johansen co-integration test were used to testing for data stationarity and the existence or otherwise of co-integrating equations respectively.Thereafter,data were analyzed using Ordinary Least Square and Parsimonious Error Correction techniques.Findings from the study show that government expenditure and revenue both have a positive relationship with the rate of inflation,though the latter is not statistically significant.Also,there is a positive but insignificant relationship between inflation and gross domestic product.In line with the above findings,we,therefore,recommend that the Nigerian government at all levels(local,state,and federal)should be tactful in the use of fiscal policy tools to avoid triggering inflationary pressure and its negative multiplier effects on the welfare of its citizenry.
文摘This paper employs a stochastic endogenous growth model extended to the case of a recursive utility function which can disentangle intertemporal substitution from risk aversion to analyze productive government expenditure and optimal fiscal policy, particularly stresses the importance of factor income. First, the explicit solutions of the central planner＇s stochastic optimization problem are derived, the growth maximizing and welfare-maximizing government expenditure policies are obtained and their standing in conflict or coincidence depends upon intertemporal substitution. Second, the explicit solutions of the representative individual＇s stochastic optimization problem which permits to tax on capital income and labor income separately are derived ,and it is found that the effect of risk on growth crucially depends on the degree of risk aversion,the intertemporal elasticity of substitution and the capital income share. Finally, a flexible optimal tax policy which can be internally adjusted to a certain extent is derived, and it is found that the distribution of factor income plays an important role in designing the optimal tax policy.
文摘Agents response equilibrium (ARE) model has been taken advantage of to build a multi-agent system for analyzing fiscal policy effect. Through establishing various types of economic entities and endowing them with abilities to react and make decision, the whole system will evolve to new conditions in response to policy change. Compared with different scenarios, it can be concluded that when raising taxation ratio, sectoral scale will shrink to some extent. But supported by government expenditure, certain sectors could be kept in comparatively larger production scale.
文摘The impact of Polish fiscal policy on economy after accession to the euro area is analyzed in the article. It was found that government spending financed by distortionary taxation affects output in a different way than in case of government spending financed by bonds. Poland＇s accession to the Economic and Monetary Union will reduce the possibility of increased government spending financed by bonds, which in light of the presented model will greatly reduce the possibility of stimulating the economy through fiscal policy.
文摘This paper （1） discusses how the two indicators used in official statistics of China, namely total investment in fixed assets and the gross fixed capital formation, reflect changes infixed asset investment and their relationship, （2） analyzes the growth of fixed asset investment and its contribution to changes of economic growth rate since the reform and opening-up, and （3） explains how fiscal policy impacts the growth of fixed asset investment and analyzes in detail the impacts of the two rounds of contractionary fiscal policy, two rounds of expansionary fiscal policy and one round of neutral fiscal policy on China＇ s fixed asset investment growth since reform and opening-up using full and accurate data. Practice shows that the impact of fiscal policy on China＇ s fixed asset investment is direct and obvious, yet sometimes too drastic. In the future, fiscal policy should be used in alignment with other economic policies with appropriate intensity and timing so that it will help stabilize the growth of fixed asset investment.
文摘Harmonious fiscal policy is the Inner requirement for Constructing Harmonious society and is an important means of realiziug such society. The harmonious fiscal policy should realize the harmony of “two hands”, the harmony of values, the unity of short-term and long-term harmony the unity of parts and the whole harmony, the unity of internal and external efficacy harmony. To scientifically evaluate harmony of fiscal policy is the prerequisite to bring harmonious fiscal policy to its full play.
文摘China will continue to implement its proactive fiscal policy in 2011 and better handle the relations between maintaining steady and relatively fast economic development, restructuring the
文摘China’s proactive fiscal policy adheres to the development ideology centered around the people and differs from the traditional Western logic of macro-fiscal policy.It bears distinct Chinese characteristics and represents a significant macroeconomic governance policy innovation in China’s process of modernization.Despite the considerable differences between the perspectives of the Keynesian tradition and the non-Keynesian tradition,their policy objectives and methodological foundations are broadly similar,constituting the traditional Western logic of macro-fiscal policy.Currently,this logic is facing increasing practical challenges.In contrast,China’s proactive fiscal policy not only aims to restore supply-demand balance and potential growth levels but also emphasizes enhancing future potential growth rates,marking a transformation from the traditional Western logic to a new logic.It is essential to emphasize that under this new logic,forming a new fiscal policy paradigm requires a reevaluation of the nature and appropriate scale of fiscal deficits,the role and risk measurement standards of government debt,the space and effectiveness of reduction of taxes and administrative fees,demand management methods and priorities,as well as policy costs and efficiency,among other fundamental categories.
基金the"Research on the Construction of China's Monetary Policy System under the New Normal of Economic Development"(No.15JZD013)a key project of the Ministry of Education for philosophical,social and scientific research,and the"Mechanisms for Analyzing,Discovering,and Collaborating in the Creation of the Value of Financial Big Data Based on Knowledge Correlations"(No.91646206)a key project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China.The authors would like to express their gratitude to the anonymous reviewers for their revisions,and take sole responsibility for this paper。
文摘By constructing a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model that embeds structural fiscal policy and contains two types of households,labor intermediaries,manufacturers,the central bank,and fiscal departments,and based on China's macroeconomic controls that combine proactive fiscal policy with prudent monetary policy in the context of supply-side structural reform,this paper compares and analyzes the macroeconomic effects of the various types of proactive fiscal policy instruments,and measures the impact of the choice of anchors for monetary policy on the long-term welfare loss caused by the various fiscal policy instruments.This study finds that the consumption-oriented fiscal expenditure increase and labor income tax reduction policies have the most significant macroeconomic stimulus effects in the short term,but attention should be paid to the disadvantage that they may lead to the rise of government debt risks;and in the long term,the role of production-oriented fiscal expenditure policies in guaranteeing the stable operations of China's economy should be brought into play.In addition,once the implementation of proactive fiscal policy lasts for too long,their long-term effects may be weakened,with negative macroeconomic impacts.In order to mitigate the resulting long-term economic fluctuations and welfare loss,prudent monetary policy should be fine-tuned with price stability as the anchor.
基金a result of the Major Project of the National Social Science Fund of China (NSSFC)“Study on Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy Coordination under the Dual Economic Circulations”(Grant No.20&ZD104)
文摘As two main tools of macroeconomic policies,coordination and conflict between fiscal and monetary policies have been paid considerable attention by researchers.Under a structural vector autoregressive model that incorporates fiscal and monetary policies,this paper analyzes the monetary policy response to fiscal shocks.Our study finds that during the occurrence of a fiscal shock,the growth rate of broad money supply M2 substantially increased,indicating the adoption of an expansionary monetary policy by the monetary authority to fiscal policy expansion.Based on this empirical finding,this paper improves the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to investigate the fiscal policy effects under China’s monetary policy coordination.Our analysis shows that monetary policy coordination will significantly boost the economic stimulus effect of fiscal policy,generating a fiscal crowding-in effect.From the perspective of China’s institutional strength,this conclusion offers a theoretical explanation on the empirical fact of the fiscal crowdingin effect uncovered in the research literature,and offers a policy reference for making the proactive fiscal policy more efficient and effective.This paper suggests that China’s policymakers give full play to the country’s institutional strength by coordinating fiscal and monetary policies for high-quality economic development.
基金supported by the Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University(NCET-10-0824)the Program of the Innovative Research Team of the Central University of Finance and Economics and the Program of Statistics Research in China(Grant number:2009LZ032)
文摘In the present paper, we use the Markov-switching model to test the nonlinear effects of government expenditure and taxes on private consumption in China. The results show that fiscal policy in China has a significantly nonlinear effect. In years 1978-1980 and 1984- 1997, the effect of government consumption on private consumption is non-Keynesian. During the same periods, the effect of taxes is also non-Keynesian, but the effect is not significant. The effect of government investment is linear but asymmetric. After retesting the reasons for the existence of nonlinear effects, we find that in China initial fiscal conditions and the magnitude of fiscal consolidations are not related to the nonlinear effects of fiscal policy. The government should pay close attention to the characteristics of commodity and labor markets to identify the conditions and regimes associated with nonlinear effects.
文摘The prudent fiscal policy adopted in 2005 is the result of adopting a series of measures tostrengthen macro control in recent years. The process of implementation will be gradual.During this period, pushing forward reforms is the main focus of all the measures. Taxreform, social security system reform and rural reform will need the most emphasis.
文摘The sustainability of the proactive or expansionary fiscal policy adopted by China since 1998, or the transformation of the proactive fiscal policy, has received great attention domestically and internationally. This paper summarizes the current situation and future trend of China’s proactive fiscal policy from four aspects.
文摘At present,most of the research discussing the uncertainty of fiscal policy is based on the total fiscal policy and foreign data.There is no literature on the index construction of China’s total and specific fiscal policy.By means of the standard data collecting methods of policy uncertainty with China’s contextual characteristics of fiscal policy,this paper constructs China’s fiscal policy uncertainty index.This paper also analyzes the statistical features of China’s fiscal policy uncertainty index and the main factors affecting the uncertainty.Firstly,the index constructed in this paper is robust while the volatility of fiscal expenditure uncertainty is higher than that of the policy.Secondly,the fiscal policy uncertainty index is characterized by regime-switching between“low mean,low volatility”and“high mean,high volatility”.Thirdly,the uncertainty of fiscal policy is closely related to the volatility of economic growth and monetary policy uncertainty.It means that studying the uncertainty of China’s fiscal policy is of practical significance.Finally,domestic factors are the main causes affecting fiscal policy uncertainty.
基金The Project to Accelerate the Establishment of the Modern Fiscal System,a Class-A Project of the Innovation Program sponsored by the National Academy of Economic Strategy,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
文摘The paper reviews the fi scal policies adopted by China in the past 70 years,summarizes their characteristics at different stages and looks into the future fiscal policy options for China.The fiscal policy history since the founding of the People’s Republic of China can be divided into four stages.Stage 1:1949-1952,the market-oriented fi scal policy aiming to restore the national economy;Stage 2:1953-1978,the planned fi scal policy;Stage 3:1978-2012,the fi scal policy accommodating the needs of economic transformation;and Stage 4:2012-present,the fiscal policy accommodating the needs of the new era.A look at the above fiscal policy history draws the following conclusions.(1)The goal of the fiscal policy should be set based on a correct understanding of the role of the state;(2).For the fi scal policy to work,it must respect the fi scal law;(3)The fi scal policy must aim higher than the goal of macroeconomic stability and provide guarantees for industrialization and modernization;(4)The government should understand fi scal defi cits while proactively guarding against fi scal risks;(5)The implementation of the fi scal policy must go hand in hand with the fi scal reform;(6)The funding for the fi scal policy must come from diverse sources;(7)The choice of the fi scal policy should fully consider external impacts.The future fi scal policy should revolve around serving the modernization of china’s governance system and capacity,and serving China’s contribution to the building of a community with a shared future for humanity.We should update our knowledge on the fi scal policy to support the decision-making for the choice of fi scal policy.The goal of fi scal policy should be set in coordination with that of other policies.Moreover,from the perspective of the government’s disposable revenue and cash fl ow,the paper probes into the space and challenges for future fi scal policy and sorts the problems of the transmission mechanism that might prevent the fi scal policy from working.
基金Youth Fund for Humanities and Social Sciences Research of the Ministry of Education“Research on Risk Shock,Government Guarantee and Optimal Macroprudential Policy:Based on the Perspective of Financial Acceleration Period”(20YJC790172).
文摘In different economic periods,if the government blindly adopts expansionary fiscal policy,it may not be able to effectively increase total factor productivity(TFP).Based on this,this paper constructs a factor augmented vector autoregressive model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility(SV-TVP-FAVAR),and explores the nonlinear shock effect of China’s fiscal policy on TFP from the dual perspective of aggregate and structure.The study finds that:(1)At the aggregate level,the increase in fiscal expenditure in each period has a signifi cant inhibitory effect on TFP,while the increase in fiscal revenue has a significant promotion effect on TFP;(2)At the structural level of expenditure,in the period of economic depression and high economic growth,the increase in investment expenditure,education expenditure,technology expenditure,and public service expenditure all have a strong incentive effect on TFP,but the increase in science and technology and education expenditure in the period of economic stability has not effectively improved TFP;(3)At the structural level of tax,the increase in commodity tax,including consumption tax,value-added tax,and tariff,and individual income tax will signifi cantly inhibit the increase in TFP,but the increase in corporate income tax can signifi cantly increase TFP.Therefore,under the new economic normal,policy makers should build a two-wheel driven fiscal policy of“aggregate regulation and structural optimization”to optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure and taxation,and promote high-quality economic development.
文摘In terms of GDP and unemployment, the US's recovery from the crisis wasrelatively rapid. This was in large part due to forceful fiscal policy conducted bythe Obama Administration. This column surveys the lessons for other economies,which have seen less-convincing recoveries.
