The ProP waveform data obtained from a deep seismic sounding profile, which ran through Zhangbei seismic region, were processed by means of both seismic wave complexity coefficient and frequency spectrum analysis meth...The ProP waveform data obtained from a deep seismic sounding profile, which ran through Zhangbei seismic region, were processed by means of both seismic wave complexity coefficient and frequency spectrum analysis methods, and the complexity characteristics of crest-mantle boundary beneath the studied area and its adjacent region were determined. The results show that the place below epicenter can be taken as boundary, the northern side of which is Inner Mongolia axis with small complexity coefficient and the southern side of which is Huai＇an basin with large complexity coefficient. The different spectrum patterns at the two sides of the epicenter were inferred from spectrum analysis. In the epicentral area, there have been multi-period magmatic eruptions since Meso-Cenozoic and craters exist at the surface. From the velocity imaging of middle and upper crust in Zhangbei seismic region it can be found that there are crustal low velocity bodies around the craters and also there are low velocity zones, which went into deep crust. It is suggested that the distinct zones of crust-mantle boundary complexity may be the margin, where the magma had intruded due to magma activity in Meso-Cenozoic. The southern side with large complexity coefficient is deep magmatic activity area and the northern side with small complexity coefficient is stable crust-mantle tectonics. The difference of crust-mantle complexity provides deep background for the development of strong earthquake.展开更多
Based on the analysis of newly collected data of plate tectonics, distribution of active faults and crustal deformation, the Taiwan Region is divided into two seismic regions and six seismic belts. Then, correlation f...Based on the analysis of newly collected data of plate tectonics, distribution of active faults and crustal deformation, the Taiwan Region is divided into two seismic regions and six seismic belts. Then, correlation fractal dimensions of all the regions and belts are calculated, and the fractal characteristics of hypocenteral distribution can be quantitatively analyzed. Finally, multifractal dimensions D q and f(α) are calculated by using the earthquake catalog of the past 11 years in the Taiwan Region. This study indicates that (1) there exists a favorable corresponding relationship between spatial images of seismic activity described with correlation fractal dimension analysis and tectonic settings; (2) the temporal structure of earthquakes is not single but multifractal fractal, and the pattern of D q variation with time is a good indicator for predicting strong earthquake events.展开更多
This paper studies the computation method of two step inversion of interface and velocity in a region. The 3 D interface is described by a segmented incomplete polynomial; while the reconstruction of 3 D velocity i...This paper studies the computation method of two step inversion of interface and velocity in a region. The 3 D interface is described by a segmented incomplete polynomial; while the reconstruction of 3 D velocity is accomplished by the principle of least squares in functional space. The computation is carried out in two steps. The first step is to inverse the shape of 3 D interface; while the second step is to do 3 D velocity inversion by distributing the remaining residual errors of travel time in accordance with their weights. The data of seismic sounding in the Tangshan Luanxian seismic region are processed, from which the 3 D structural form in depth of the Tangshan seismic region and the 3 D velocity distribution in the crust below the Tangshan Luanxian seismic region are obtained. The result shows that the deep 3 D structure in the Tangshan seismic region trends NE on the whole and the structure sandwiched between the NE trending Fengtai Yejituo fault and the NE trending Tangshan fault is an uplifted zone of the Moho. In the 3 D velocity structure of middle lower crust below that region, there is an obvious belt of low velocity anomaly to exist along the NE trending Tangshan fault, the position of which tallies with that of the Tangshan seismicity belt. The larger block of low velocity anomaly near Shaheyi corresponds to a denser earthquake distribution. In that region, there is an NW trending belt of high velocity anomaly, probably a buried fault zone. The lower crust below the epicentral region of the Tangshan M S=7.8 earthquake is a place where the NE trending belt of low velocity anomaly meets the NW trending belt of high velocity anomaly. The two sets of structures had played an important role in controlling the preparation and occurrence of the M S=7.8 Tangshan earthquake.展开更多
ccording to the fracture mechanics rupture model of earthquakes put forward by us, several equations to compute tectonic ambient shear stress value τ0 have been derived [equations (1), (2), (3), (5)].τ0 values for i...ccording to the fracture mechanics rupture model of earthquakes put forward by us, several equations to compute tectonic ambient shear stress value τ0 have been derived [equations (1), (2), (3), (5)].τ0 values for intermediate and small earthquakes occurred in Chinese mainland and Southern California have been calculated by use of these equations. The results demonstrate that the level and distribution of τ0 are closely related to the location where large earthquakes will occur, i.e. the region with higher level of τ0 will be prone to occur large earthquakes and the region with lower level will usually occur small earthquakes. According to the spatial distribution of τ0 , the seismic hazard regions or the potential earthquake source regions can in some degree be determined. According to the variation of τ0 with time, the large earthquake occurrence time can be roughly estimated. According to the distribution of τ0 in Southern California and variation with time, three high stress level regions are determined, one (Goldfield area) of them is the present seismic hazard region.展开更多
The "Arctic" region,where the North Pole occupies the center of the Arctic Ocean,has been affecting the environmental variation of the Earth from geological time to the present.However,the seismic activities...The "Arctic" region,where the North Pole occupies the center of the Arctic Ocean,has been affecting the environmental variation of the Earth from geological time to the present.However,the seismic activities in the area are not adequately monitored.Therefore,by conducting long term monitoring of seismic phenomenon as sustainable parameters,our understanding of both the tectonic evolution of the Earth and the dynamic interaction between the cryosphere and geosphere in surface layers of the Earth will increase.In this paper,the association of the seismicity and structure of the Arctic region,particularly focused on Eurasian continent and surrounding oceans,and its relationship with regional evolution during the Earth’s history is studied.The target areas cover representative tectonic provinces in the Eurasian Arctic,such as the wide area of Siberia,Baikal Rift Zone.Far East Russia,Arctic Ocean together with Greenland and Northern Canada.Based on discussion including characteristics of seismicity,heterogeneous structure of the crust and upper mantle,tectonic history and recent dynamic features of the Earth’s surface in the Arctic are summarized.展开更多
The time and spatial feature of the regional seismicity triggered by the Hyogo-Ken Nanbu, Japan, M=7.2 earthquake on January 17, 1995, was studied. The concerned region is about several hundred kilometers in length a...The time and spatial feature of the regional seismicity triggered by the Hyogo-Ken Nanbu, Japan, M=7.2 earthquake on January 17, 1995, was studied. The concerned region is about several hundred kilometers in length and breadth surrounding the epicenter (33°-37°N, 133°-138°E). It is divided into 16 subregions. The seismicity of these subregions from January of 1976 to June of 1996 has been analyzed. It is showed that, 1) there were significant seismicity changes in 10 subregions triggered by the Hyogo-Ken Nanbu, Japan, M=7.2 earthquake on January 17, 1995. These changes passed a Z statistic test exceeding 0.95 confidence level and the greatest epicenter distance of these subregions was 280 km; 2) seismicity changes were triggered within 1-5 days in three subregions near the main shock while in other subregions the seismicity changes were triggered within several ten days after the main shock; 3) the greatest triggered event is 5.4, which is about the same size as the greatest aftershock; 4) the regional stress change resulted from the main shock may be the triggered mechanism of the regional seismicity.展开更多
In the paper, we have discovered the abnormal area distribution features of maximum variation values of ground motion parameter uncertainty with different probabilities of exceedance in 50 years within the range of 10...In the paper, we have discovered the abnormal area distribution features of maximum variation values of ground motion parameter uncertainty with different probabilities of exceedance in 50 years within the range of 100°-120°E, 29°-42°N for the purpose to solve the problem that abnormal areas of maximum variation values of ground motion parameter uncertainties emerge in a certain cities and towns caused by seismicity parameter uncertainty in a seismic statistical region in an inhomogeneous distribution model that considers tempo-spatial nonuniformity of seismic activity. And we have also approached the interrelation between the risk estimation uncertainty of a site caused by seismicity parameter uncertainty in a seismic statistical region and the delimitation of potential sources, as well as the reasons for forming abnormal areas. The results from the research indicate that the seismicity parameter uncertainty has unequal influence on the uncertainty of risk estimation at each site in a statistical region in the inhomogeneous distribution model, which relates to the scheme for delimiting potential sources. Abnormal areas of maximum variation values of ground motion parameter uncertainty often emerge in the potential sources of Mu greater than or equal 8 (Mu is upper limit of a potential source) and their vicinity. However, this kind of influence is equal in the homogeneous distribution model. The uncertainty of risk estimation of each site depends on its seat. Generally speaking, the sites located in the middle part of a statistical region are only related to the seismicity parameter uncertainty of the region, while the sites situated in or near the juncture of two or three statistical regions might be subject to the synthetic influences of seismicity parameter uncertainties of several statistical regions.展开更多
The primary goal of the demonstration project endorsed by the Scientific and Technical Committee for IDNDR in 1992 is to ensure that national agencies are able to assess seismic hazard in a regionally coordinated fash...The primary goal of the demonstration project endorsed by the Scientific and Technical Committee for IDNDR in 1992 is to ensure that national agencies are able to assess seismic hazard in a regionally coordinated fashion by using advanced methods.China,as a Regional Center of Central Southern Asia,has contacted with countries of the region to realistically practice seismic hazard assessments of Continental Asia.A test area located in the collision boundary between the Indian and Eurasian plates was chosen to examine the seismic hazard assessment approach in the regional coordinates.The seismotectonics and three versions of seismic sources of the test area are described in this paper and under the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program(GSHAP),guidelines an earthquake catalogue of the test area was assembled.Because of the incompleteness of earthquake data in different countries,we adopt different time windows for different magnitude intervals in order to obtain the seismicity parameters of sources.By展开更多
In this paper, according to the data on the middle and strong earthquakes in China, we have preliminary studied the relation between the characteristic of space-time evolution of the seismic apparent strain field and ...In this paper, according to the data on the middle and strong earthquakes in China, we have preliminary studied the relation between the characteristic of space-time evolution of the seismic apparent strain field and the regions of 31 macroseism events since 1955. The result shows that, there is a rather well correlation between the anomaly region of seismic apparent strain and the zone of macroseism event occurrence within the time range of one to about five years. The R value of the application of the abnormal region of seismic apparent strain to predicting the area of strong earthquake occurrence is 0.458, and the empirical possibility of forecasting the region of macroseism occurrence is 0.625, and so the forecasting effect is comparatively well. Finally, the main results obtained above are discussed preliminarily.展开更多
The special seismic tectonic environment and frequent seismicity in the southeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau show that this area is an ideal location to study the present tectonic movement and background o...The special seismic tectonic environment and frequent seismicity in the southeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau show that this area is an ideal location to study the present tectonic movement and background of strong earthquakes in China's Mainland and to predict future strong earthquake risk zones. Studies of the structural environment and physical characteristics of the deep structure in this area are helpful to explore deep dynamic effects and deformation field characteristics, to strengthen our understanding of the roles of anisotropy and tectonic deformation and to study the deep tectonic background of the seismic origin of the block＇s interior. In this paper, the three-dimensional （3D） P-wave velocity structure of the crust and upper mantle under the southeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is obtained via observational data from 224 permanent seismic stations in the regional digital seismic network of Yunnan and Sichuan Provinces and from 356 mobile China seismic arrays in the southern section of the north-south seismic belt using a joint inversion method of the regional earthquake and teleseismic data. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of the P-wave velocity anomalies in the shallow upper crust is closely related to the surface geological structure, terrain and lithology. Baoxing and Kangding, with their basic volcanic rocks and volcanic clastic rocks, present obvious high-velocity anomalies. The Chengdu Basin shows low-velocity anomalies associated with the Quaternary sediments. The Xichang Mesozoic Basin and the Butuo Basin are characterised by low- velocity anomalies related to very thick sedimentary layers. The upper and middle crust beneath the Chuan-Dian and Songpan-Ganzi Blocks has apparent lateral heterogeneities, including low-velocity zones of different sizes. There is a large range of low-velocity layers in the Songpan-Ganzi Block and the sub-block northwest of Sichuan Province, showing that the middle and lower crust is relatively weak. The Sichuan Basin, which is located in the western margin of the Yangtze platform, shows high-velocity characteristics. The results also reveal that there are continuous low-velocity layer distributions in the middle and lower crust of the Daliangshan Block and that the distribution direction of the low-velocity anomaly is nearly SN, which is consistent with the trend of the Daliangshan fault. The existence of the low-velocity layer in the crust also provides a deep source for the deep dynamic deformation and seismic activity of the Daliangshan Block and its boundary faults. The results of the 3D P-wave velocity structure show that an anomalous distribution of high-density, strong-magnetic and high-wave velocity exists inside the crust in the Panxi region. This is likely related to late Paleozoic mantle plume activity that led to a large number of mafic and ultra-mafic intrusions into the crust. In the crustal doming process, the massive intrusion of mantle-derived material enhanced the mechanical strength of the crustal medium. The P-wave velocity structure also revealed that the upper mantle contains a low-velocity layer at a depth of 80-120 km in the Panxi region. The existence of deep faults in the Panxi region, which provide conditions for transporting mantle thermal material into the crust, is the deep tectonic background for the area＇s strong earthquake activity.展开更多
The magma system of Changbaishan-Tianchi Volcanic region is studied with three-dimensional deep seismic sounding (DSS) technique. The results show that the magma system of Changbaishan-Tianchi volcanic region, mainly ...The magma system of Changbaishan-Tianchi Volcanic region is studied with three-dimensional deep seismic sounding (DSS) technique. The results show that the magma system of Changbaishan-Tianchi volcanic region, mainly characterized by low velocity of P wave, can be divided into three parts in terms of depth. At the depth range of 9-15 km, the distribution of the magma system is characterized by extensiveness, large scale and near-SN orientation. This layer is the major place for magma storage. From the depth of 15 km down to the lower crust, it is characterized by small lateral scale, which indicates the 'trace' of magma intrusion from the upper mantle into the crust and also implies that the magma system most probably extends to the upper mantle, or even deeper.(less than 8-9 km deep), the range of magma distribution is even smaller, centering on an SN-oriented area just north of the Tianchi crater. If low velocity of P wave is related to the magma system, it then reflects that the magma here is still in a state of relatively high temperature. In this sense, the magma system of Changbaishan-Tianchi volcanic region is at least not 'remains', in other words, it is in an 'active' state.展开更多
Two kinds of methods for determining seismic parameters are presented, that is, the potential seismic source zoning method and grid-spatially smoothing method. The Gaussian smoothing method and the modified Gaussian s...Two kinds of methods for determining seismic parameters are presented, that is, the potential seismic source zoning method and grid-spatially smoothing method. The Gaussian smoothing method and the modified Gaussian smoothing method are described in detail, and a comprehensive analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of these methods is made. Then, we take centrai China as the study region, and use the Gaussian smoothing method and potential seismic source zoning method to build seismic models to calculate the mean annual seismic rate. Seismic hazard is calculated using the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method to construct the ground motion acceleration zoning maps. The differences between the maps and these models are discussed and the causes are investigated. The results show that the spatial smoothing method is suitable for estimating the seismic hazard over the moderate and low seismicity regions or the hazard caused by background seismicity; while the potential seismic source zoning method is suitable for estimating the seismic hazard in well-defined seismotectonics. Combining the spatial smoothing method and the potential seismic source zoning method with an integrated account of the seismicity and known seismotectonics is a feasible approach to estimate the seismic hazard in moderate and low seismicity regions.展开更多
In this paper, the lithospheric isostatic gravity anomaly with its distribution features in the Central Asian region (30°～70°N, 50°～140°E), according to the research of the lithospheric isostati...In this paper, the lithospheric isostatic gravity anomaly with its distribution features in the Central Asian region (30°～70°N, 50°～140°E), according to the research of the lithospheric isostatic principle, is discussed. Moreover, some primary structures and seismic activities in this region are discussed.展开更多
The results of the spectral-correlation analysis of the fluid-dynamic (radon and hydrogen) data monitoring obtained in the seismically active region—on Kamchatka and in conditions of Russian platform where compared t...The results of the spectral-correlation analysis of the fluid-dynamic (radon and hydrogen) data monitoring obtained in the seismically active region—on Kamchatka and in conditions of Russian platform where compared to the results of the laser-deformometer measurements obtained on Caucasus. It allowed identify spectral components of the measured parameters, first of all, in the area of the lunar-solar tides. This identification have demonstrated the identical reaction of the mountain and platform regions to the global geodeformation processes of the tidal level and have shown the possibility of the measuring parameters response to the catastrophic events preparation processes. Really the prognostic effects in the investigated fields where indicated in periods of preparation and realization of the catastrophic earthquakes in Indian Ocean on December, 26, 2004 and on March, 28, 2005.展开更多
During the preparation process of a great earthquake, there are certain patterns of less randomness but more order in the space-time distribution of micro-earthquakes, which had been proved by seismic events and exper...During the preparation process of a great earthquake, there are certain patterns of less randomness but more order in the space-time distribution of micro-earthquakes, which had been proved by seismic events and experiments. The information entropy concerning the dimension of the order in seismic distribution is systematically defined from the point of modern statistical physics in this paper. Relations of dynamic variations of information entropy with a strong shock occurrence time and the distribution of information with a strong shock occurrence place were approached through seismic data from the Wuqia, Xikar, Wushi, and Manasi regions in Xinjiang. It is indicated that before strong earthquakes, the value of information entropy often noticeably drops in seismic region, and generally much lower in the epicentral area than the surrounding regions. These two characters are of important significance in strong shock risk region determination and large shock tendency prediction.展开更多
In this paper, the abnormal characteristics of the crustal structures in the seismic active region, Yanqing-Huailai and Zhangbei-Shangyi, are obtained by means of comprehensively interpreting and studying the data of ...In this paper, the abnormal characteristics of the crustal structures in the seismic active region, Yanqing-Huailai and Zhangbei-Shangyi, are obtained by means of comprehensively interpreting and studying the data of deep seis- mic sounding profiles passing through the northwestern part of Zhangjiakou-Bohai seismic zone. The results show that the fluctuation of crystalline basement in the study region is obvious and that there exist considerable differ- ences in depth in different geological units. The locally abrupt variation of crystalline basement depths may be regarded as a mark of existence of crystalline basement faults. These crystalline basement faults and deep crustal faults provide a pass for the magma upwelling, resulting in the strong inhomogeneity of crustal structures. These phenomena of the complex seismic reflected waves and locally discontinuous reflection zones with different en- ergy indicate that the intensive squeeze and deformation of crust took place, which have led to the complex crustal structures and offered the dynamic source for the earthquake occurrence in this region. The low velocity bodies in different depths of crust and the local interface C1 in Zhangbei-Shangyi region may result from repeated magmatic activities. The certain stress accumulation in the brittle upper crust can cause the occurrence of earthquake under the action of local tectonic activity.展开更多
The paper describes firstly the principles and scientific train of thought involved in determining the significant seismic monitoring and protection regions (SSMPR) in China. The principles include the gradation princ...The paper describes firstly the principles and scientific train of thought involved in determining the significant seismic monitoring and protection regions (SSMPR) in China. The principles include the gradation principle, i.e. the national level SSMPR and the provincial level SSMPR, the principle of highlighting priorities, namely, the area of an SSMPR should be a fraction of the total area of the country or of the respective province, but the earthquake losses incurred in SSMPR should be a major proportion of the national or provincial ones. The scientific train of thought adopted is to determine the SSMPR on the basis of seismic hazard assessment and loss estimation. Secondly, it reviews the achievements in determining the SSMPRs for the period from 1996 to 2005. The result shows that 10 strong earthquakes occurred during that period in the areas with earthquake monitoring and prediction capability available on the Chinese continent, 8 of which occurred in SSMPRs with the economic loss and death toll accounting for 67% and 92% of the total loss on the Chinese mainland. Lastly, the paper introduces preparatory research for determining the SSMPR for the period from 2006 to 2020, including decade-scale mid-and long-range seismic risk assessment based on seismology, seismogeology, geodesy, earthquake engineering, sociology and stochastics and so on, and the national seismic risk probability map, the seismic hazard (intensity) map, earthquake disaster losses map and the comprehensive seismic risk index, etc. obtained for the period of 2006 to 2020.展开更多
With the theory of subcritical crack growth, we can deduce the fundamental equation of regional seismicity acceleration model. Applying this model to intraplate earthquake regions, we select three earthquake subplates...With the theory of subcritical crack growth, we can deduce the fundamental equation of regional seismicity acceleration model. Applying this model to intraplate earthquake regions, we select three earthquake subplates: North China Subplate, Chuan Dian Block and Xinjiang Subplate, and divide the three subplates into seven researched regions by the difference of seismicity and tectonic conditions. With the modified equation given by Sornette and Sammis (1995), we analysis the seismicity of each region. To those strong earthquakes already occurred in these region, the model can give close fitting of magnitude and occurrence time, and the result in this article indicates that the seismicity acceleration model can also be used for describing the seismicity of intraplate. In the article, we give the magnitude and occurrence time of possible strong earthquakes in Shanxi, Ordos, Bole Tuokexun, Ayinke Wuqia earthquake regions. In the same subplate or block, the earthquake periods for each earthquake region are similar in time interval. The constant α in model can be used to describe the intensity of regional seismicity, and for the Chinese Mainland, α is 0.4 generally. To the seismicity in Taiwan and other regions with complex tectonic conditions, the model does not fit well at present.展开更多
In this paper we present an approach for forecasting the imminent regional seismic activity by using geomagnetic data and Earth tide data. The time periods of seismic activity are the time periods around the Sun-Moon ...In this paper we present an approach for forecasting the imminent regional seismic activity by using geomagnetic data and Earth tide data. The time periods of seismic activity are the time periods around the Sun-Moon extreme of the diurnal average value of the tide vector module. For analyzing the geomagnetic data behaviour we use diurnal standard deviation of geomagnetic vector components F (North, East, Down) for calculating the time variance GeomagSignal. The Sun storm influence is avoided by using data for daily A-indexes (published by NOAA). The precursor signal for forecasting the incoming regional seismic activity is a simple function of the present and previous day GeomagSignal and A-indexes values. The reliability of the geomagnetic “when, regional” precursor is demonstrated by using statistical analysis of day difference between the times of “predicted” and occurred earthquakes. The base of the analysis is a natural hypothesis that the “predicted” earthquake is the one whose surface energy density in the monitoring point is bigger than the energy densities of all occurred earthquakes in the same period and region. The reliability of the approach was tested using the INTERMAGNET stations data located in Bulgaria, Panagurishte, PAG (Jan 1, 2008-Jan 29, 2014), Romania, Surlari, SUA (Jan 1, 2008-Jan 27, 2014), Italy, L’Aquila, AQU (Jan 1, 2008-May 30, 2013) in the time of EU IRSES BlackSeaHazNet (2011-2014) project. The steps of program for solving the “when, where and how” earthquake prediction problem are shortly described.展开更多
The regulation of the National Significant Seismic Monitoring and Protection Regions(NSSMPR for short) is defined by the Law of the Peoples Republic of China on Protecting Against and Mitigating Earthquake Disasters.T...The regulation of the National Significant Seismic Monitoring and Protection Regions(NSSMPR for short) is defined by the Law of the Peoples Republic of China on Protecting Against and Mitigating Earthquake Disasters.The first stage of implementation of the regulation of NSSMPR in the Chinese mainland was finished from 1996 to 2005.The second stage is being carried on from 2006 to 2020.With the support of the National Social Science Foundation,this paper follows up and evaluates the implementation of the regulation of NSSMPR from 1996 to 2012 in the Chinese mainland.Based on analysis of earthquake examples and investigation data,we find that the effect of disaster mitigation is good,and on this basis,some suggestions are proposed to improve the regulation of NSSMPR.展开更多
基金Joint Seismological Science Foundation of China (104027 and 102025).
文摘The ProP waveform data obtained from a deep seismic sounding profile, which ran through Zhangbei seismic region, were processed by means of both seismic wave complexity coefficient and frequency spectrum analysis methods, and the complexity characteristics of crest-mantle boundary beneath the studied area and its adjacent region were determined. The results show that the place below epicenter can be taken as boundary, the northern side of which is Inner Mongolia axis with small complexity coefficient and the southern side of which is Huai＇an basin with large complexity coefficient. The different spectrum patterns at the two sides of the epicenter were inferred from spectrum analysis. In the epicentral area, there have been multi-period magmatic eruptions since Meso-Cenozoic and craters exist at the surface. From the velocity imaging of middle and upper crust in Zhangbei seismic region it can be found that there are crustal low velocity bodies around the craters and also there are low velocity zones, which went into deep crust. It is suggested that the distinct zones of crust-mantle boundary complexity may be the margin, where the magma had intruded due to magma activity in Meso-Cenozoic. The southern side with large complexity coefficient is deep magmatic activity area and the northern side with small complexity coefficient is stable crust-mantle tectonics. The difference of crust-mantle complexity provides deep background for the development of strong earthquake.
基金the Joint Earthquake Science Foundation grant number 100070 the NationalNatural Science Foundation of Chinagrant number40272111.
文摘Based on the analysis of newly collected data of plate tectonics, distribution of active faults and crustal deformation, the Taiwan Region is divided into two seismic regions and six seismic belts. Then, correlation fractal dimensions of all the regions and belts are calculated, and the fractal characteristics of hypocenteral distribution can be quantitatively analyzed. Finally, multifractal dimensions D q and f(α) are calculated by using the earthquake catalog of the past 11 years in the Taiwan Region. This study indicates that (1) there exists a favorable corresponding relationship between spatial images of seismic activity described with correlation fractal dimension analysis and tectonic settings; (2) the temporal structure of earthquakes is not single but multifractal fractal, and the pattern of D q variation with time is a good indicator for predicting strong earthquake events.
文摘This paper studies the computation method of two step inversion of interface and velocity in a region. The 3 D interface is described by a segmented incomplete polynomial; while the reconstruction of 3 D velocity is accomplished by the principle of least squares in functional space. The computation is carried out in two steps. The first step is to inverse the shape of 3 D interface; while the second step is to do 3 D velocity inversion by distributing the remaining residual errors of travel time in accordance with their weights. The data of seismic sounding in the Tangshan Luanxian seismic region are processed, from which the 3 D structural form in depth of the Tangshan seismic region and the 3 D velocity distribution in the crust below the Tangshan Luanxian seismic region are obtained. The result shows that the deep 3 D structure in the Tangshan seismic region trends NE on the whole and the structure sandwiched between the NE trending Fengtai Yejituo fault and the NE trending Tangshan fault is an uplifted zone of the Moho. In the 3 D velocity structure of middle lower crust below that region, there is an obvious belt of low velocity anomaly to exist along the NE trending Tangshan fault, the position of which tallies with that of the Tangshan seismicity belt. The larger block of low velocity anomaly near Shaheyi corresponds to a denser earthquake distribution. In that region, there is an NW trending belt of high velocity anomaly, probably a buried fault zone. The lower crust below the epicentral region of the Tangshan M S=7.8 earthquake is a place where the NE trending belt of low velocity anomaly meets the NW trending belt of high velocity anomaly. The two sets of structures had played an important role in controlling the preparation and occurrence of the M S=7.8 Tangshan earthquake.
文摘ccording to the fracture mechanics rupture model of earthquakes put forward by us, several equations to compute tectonic ambient shear stress value τ0 have been derived [equations (1), (2), (3), (5)].τ0 values for intermediate and small earthquakes occurred in Chinese mainland and Southern California have been calculated by use of these equations. The results demonstrate that the level and distribution of τ0 are closely related to the location where large earthquakes will occur, i.e. the region with higher level of τ0 will be prone to occur large earthquakes and the region with lower level will usually occur small earthquakes. According to the spatial distribution of τ0 , the seismic hazard regions or the potential earthquake source regions can in some degree be determined. According to the variation of τ0 with time, the large earthquake occurrence time can be roughly estimated. According to the distribution of τ0 in Southern California and variation with time, three high stress level regions are determined, one (Goldfield area) of them is the present seismic hazard region.
基金supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number 26241010(P.I.by Dr.Masaki Kanao)
文摘The "Arctic" region,where the North Pole occupies the center of the Arctic Ocean,has been affecting the environmental variation of the Earth from geological time to the present.However,the seismic activities in the area are not adequately monitored.Therefore,by conducting long term monitoring of seismic phenomenon as sustainable parameters,our understanding of both the tectonic evolution of the Earth and the dynamic interaction between the cryosphere and geosphere in surface layers of the Earth will increase.In this paper,the association of the seismicity and structure of the Arctic region,particularly focused on Eurasian continent and surrounding oceans,and its relationship with regional evolution during the Earth’s history is studied.The target areas cover representative tectonic provinces in the Eurasian Arctic,such as the wide area of Siberia,Baikal Rift Zone.Far East Russia,Arctic Ocean together with Greenland and Northern Canada.Based on discussion including characteristics of seismicity,heterogeneous structure of the crust and upper mantle,tectonic history and recent dynamic features of the Earth’s surface in the Arctic are summarized.
文摘The time and spatial feature of the regional seismicity triggered by the Hyogo-Ken Nanbu, Japan, M=7.2 earthquake on January 17, 1995, was studied. The concerned region is about several hundred kilometers in length and breadth surrounding the epicenter (33°-37°N, 133°-138°E). It is divided into 16 subregions. The seismicity of these subregions from January of 1976 to June of 1996 has been analyzed. It is showed that, 1) there were significant seismicity changes in 10 subregions triggered by the Hyogo-Ken Nanbu, Japan, M=7.2 earthquake on January 17, 1995. These changes passed a Z statistic test exceeding 0.95 confidence level and the greatest epicenter distance of these subregions was 280 km; 2) seismicity changes were triggered within 1-5 days in three subregions near the main shock while in other subregions the seismicity changes were triggered within several ten days after the main shock; 3) the greatest triggered event is 5.4, which is about the same size as the greatest aftershock; 4) the regional stress change resulted from the main shock may be the triggered mechanism of the regional seismicity.
基金Joint Seismological Science Foundation of China (103051).
文摘In the paper, we have discovered the abnormal area distribution features of maximum variation values of ground motion parameter uncertainty with different probabilities of exceedance in 50 years within the range of 100°-120°E, 29°-42°N for the purpose to solve the problem that abnormal areas of maximum variation values of ground motion parameter uncertainties emerge in a certain cities and towns caused by seismicity parameter uncertainty in a seismic statistical region in an inhomogeneous distribution model that considers tempo-spatial nonuniformity of seismic activity. And we have also approached the interrelation between the risk estimation uncertainty of a site caused by seismicity parameter uncertainty in a seismic statistical region and the delimitation of potential sources, as well as the reasons for forming abnormal areas. The results from the research indicate that the seismicity parameter uncertainty has unequal influence on the uncertainty of risk estimation at each site in a statistical region in the inhomogeneous distribution model, which relates to the scheme for delimiting potential sources. Abnormal areas of maximum variation values of ground motion parameter uncertainty often emerge in the potential sources of Mu greater than or equal 8 (Mu is upper limit of a potential source) and their vicinity. However, this kind of influence is equal in the homogeneous distribution model. The uncertainty of risk estimation of each site depends on its seat. Generally speaking, the sites located in the middle part of a statistical region are only related to the seismicity parameter uncertainty of the region, while the sites situated in or near the juncture of two or three statistical regions might be subject to the synthetic influences of seismicity parameter uncertainties of several statistical regions.
文摘The primary goal of the demonstration project endorsed by the Scientific and Technical Committee for IDNDR in 1992 is to ensure that national agencies are able to assess seismic hazard in a regionally coordinated fashion by using advanced methods.China,as a Regional Center of Central Southern Asia,has contacted with countries of the region to realistically practice seismic hazard assessments of Continental Asia.A test area located in the collision boundary between the Indian and Eurasian plates was chosen to examine the seismic hazard assessment approach in the regional coordinates.The seismotectonics and three versions of seismic sources of the test area are described in this paper and under the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program(GSHAP),guidelines an earthquake catalogue of the test area was assembled.Because of the incompleteness of earthquake data in different countries,we adopt different time windows for different magnitude intervals in order to obtain the seismicity parameters of sources.By
基金The Key Project(95-04-06-03,95-04-07-02)from China Seismological Bureau.
文摘In this paper, according to the data on the middle and strong earthquakes in China, we have preliminary studied the relation between the characteristic of space-time evolution of the seismic apparent strain field and the regions of 31 macroseism events since 1955. The result shows that, there is a rather well correlation between the anomaly region of seismic apparent strain and the zone of macroseism event occurrence within the time range of one to about five years. The R value of the application of the abnormal region of seismic apparent strain to predicting the area of strong earthquake occurrence is 0.458, and the empirical possibility of forecasting the region of macroseism occurrence is 0.625, and so the forecasting effect is comparatively well. Finally, the main results obtained above are discussed preliminarily.
基金supported by China earthquake scientific array exploration Southern section of North South seismic belt(201008001)Northern section of North South seismic belt(20130811)+1 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(41474057)Science for Earthquake Resllience of China Earthquake Administration(XH15040Y)
文摘The special seismic tectonic environment and frequent seismicity in the southeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau show that this area is an ideal location to study the present tectonic movement and background of strong earthquakes in China's Mainland and to predict future strong earthquake risk zones. Studies of the structural environment and physical characteristics of the deep structure in this area are helpful to explore deep dynamic effects and deformation field characteristics, to strengthen our understanding of the roles of anisotropy and tectonic deformation and to study the deep tectonic background of the seismic origin of the block＇s interior. In this paper, the three-dimensional （3D） P-wave velocity structure of the crust and upper mantle under the southeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is obtained via observational data from 224 permanent seismic stations in the regional digital seismic network of Yunnan and Sichuan Provinces and from 356 mobile China seismic arrays in the southern section of the north-south seismic belt using a joint inversion method of the regional earthquake and teleseismic data. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of the P-wave velocity anomalies in the shallow upper crust is closely related to the surface geological structure, terrain and lithology. Baoxing and Kangding, with their basic volcanic rocks and volcanic clastic rocks, present obvious high-velocity anomalies. The Chengdu Basin shows low-velocity anomalies associated with the Quaternary sediments. The Xichang Mesozoic Basin and the Butuo Basin are characterised by low- velocity anomalies related to very thick sedimentary layers. The upper and middle crust beneath the Chuan-Dian and Songpan-Ganzi Blocks has apparent lateral heterogeneities, including low-velocity zones of different sizes. There is a large range of low-velocity layers in the Songpan-Ganzi Block and the sub-block northwest of Sichuan Province, showing that the middle and lower crust is relatively weak. The Sichuan Basin, which is located in the western margin of the Yangtze platform, shows high-velocity characteristics. The results also reveal that there are continuous low-velocity layer distributions in the middle and lower crust of the Daliangshan Block and that the distribution direction of the low-velocity anomaly is nearly SN, which is consistent with the trend of the Daliangshan fault. The existence of the low-velocity layer in the crust also provides a deep source for the deep dynamic deformation and seismic activity of the Daliangshan Block and its boundary faults. The results of the 3D P-wave velocity structure show that an anomalous distribution of high-density, strong-magnetic and high-wave velocity exists inside the crust in the Panxi region. This is likely related to late Paleozoic mantle plume activity that led to a large number of mafic and ultra-mafic intrusions into the crust. In the crustal doming process, the massive intrusion of mantle-derived material enhanced the mechanical strength of the crustal medium. The P-wave velocity structure also revealed that the upper mantle contains a low-velocity layer at a depth of 80-120 km in the Panxi region. The existence of deep faults in the Panxi region, which provide conditions for transporting mantle thermal material into the crust, is the deep tectonic background for the area＇s strong earthquake activity.
基金Key project of the Ninth Five-Year plan from China Seismological Bureau (95-11-02-01).Contribution No. RCEG200107, Research Ce
文摘The magma system of Changbaishan-Tianchi Volcanic region is studied with three-dimensional deep seismic sounding (DSS) technique. The results show that the magma system of Changbaishan-Tianchi volcanic region, mainly characterized by low velocity of P wave, can be divided into three parts in terms of depth. At the depth range of 9-15 km, the distribution of the magma system is characterized by extensiveness, large scale and near-SN orientation. This layer is the major place for magma storage. From the depth of 15 km down to the lower crust, it is characterized by small lateral scale, which indicates the 'trace' of magma intrusion from the upper mantle into the crust and also implies that the magma system most probably extends to the upper mantle, or even deeper.(less than 8-9 km deep), the range of magma distribution is even smaller, centering on an SN-oriented area just north of the Tianchi crater. If low velocity of P wave is related to the magma system, it then reflects that the magma here is still in a state of relatively high temperature. In this sense, the magma system of Changbaishan-Tianchi volcanic region is at least not 'remains', in other words, it is in an 'active' state.
基金sponsored by the National Key Technology R&D Program,China (2006BAC13B01)
文摘Two kinds of methods for determining seismic parameters are presented, that is, the potential seismic source zoning method and grid-spatially smoothing method. The Gaussian smoothing method and the modified Gaussian smoothing method are described in detail, and a comprehensive analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of these methods is made. Then, we take centrai China as the study region, and use the Gaussian smoothing method and potential seismic source zoning method to build seismic models to calculate the mean annual seismic rate. Seismic hazard is calculated using the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method to construct the ground motion acceleration zoning maps. The differences between the maps and these models are discussed and the causes are investigated. The results show that the spatial smoothing method is suitable for estimating the seismic hazard over the moderate and low seismicity regions or the hazard caused by background seismicity; while the potential seismic source zoning method is suitable for estimating the seismic hazard in well-defined seismotectonics. Combining the spatial smoothing method and the potential seismic source zoning method with an integrated account of the seismicity and known seismotectonics is a feasible approach to estimate the seismic hazard in moderate and low seismicity regions.
文摘In this paper, the lithospheric isostatic gravity anomaly with its distribution features in the Central Asian region (30°～70°N, 50°～140°E), according to the research of the lithospheric isostatic principle, is discussed. Moreover, some primary structures and seismic activities in this region are discussed.
文摘The results of the spectral-correlation analysis of the fluid-dynamic (radon and hydrogen) data monitoring obtained in the seismically active region—on Kamchatka and in conditions of Russian platform where compared to the results of the laser-deformometer measurements obtained on Caucasus. It allowed identify spectral components of the measured parameters, first of all, in the area of the lunar-solar tides. This identification have demonstrated the identical reaction of the mountain and platform regions to the global geodeformation processes of the tidal level and have shown the possibility of the measuring parameters response to the catastrophic events preparation processes. Really the prognostic effects in the investigated fields where indicated in periods of preparation and realization of the catastrophic earthquakes in Indian Ocean on December, 26, 2004 and on March, 28, 2005.
基金This project was Sponsored by the Joint Earthquake Science Foundation, China.
文摘During the preparation process of a great earthquake, there are certain patterns of less randomness but more order in the space-time distribution of micro-earthquakes, which had been proved by seismic events and experiments. The information entropy concerning the dimension of the order in seismic distribution is systematically defined from the point of modern statistical physics in this paper. Relations of dynamic variations of information entropy with a strong shock occurrence time and the distribution of information with a strong shock occurrence place were approached through seismic data from the Wuqia, Xikar, Wushi, and Manasi regions in Xinjiang. It is indicated that before strong earthquakes, the value of information entropy often noticeably drops in seismic region, and generally much lower in the epicentral area than the surrounding regions. These two characters are of important significance in strong shock risk region determination and large shock tendency prediction.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China (40334040) and Key Project from China Earthquake Administration during the ninth Five-year Plan (9504080101).
文摘In this paper, the abnormal characteristics of the crustal structures in the seismic active region, Yanqing-Huailai and Zhangbei-Shangyi, are obtained by means of comprehensively interpreting and studying the data of deep seis- mic sounding profiles passing through the northwestern part of Zhangjiakou-Bohai seismic zone. The results show that the fluctuation of crystalline basement in the study region is obvious and that there exist considerable differ- ences in depth in different geological units. The locally abrupt variation of crystalline basement depths may be regarded as a mark of existence of crystalline basement faults. These crystalline basement faults and deep crustal faults provide a pass for the magma upwelling, resulting in the strong inhomogeneity of crustal structures. These phenomena of the complex seismic reflected waves and locally discontinuous reflection zones with different en- ergy indicate that the intensive squeeze and deformation of crust took place, which have led to the complex crustal structures and offered the dynamic source for the earthquake occurrence in this region. The low velocity bodies in different depths of crust and the local interface C1 in Zhangbei-Shangyi region may result from repeated magmatic activities. The certain stress accumulation in the brittle upper crust can cause the occurrence of earthquake under the action of local tectonic activity.
基金the Special Public Welfare Project of Ministry of Science and Technology of China (2004DIA3J010)
文摘The paper describes firstly the principles and scientific train of thought involved in determining the significant seismic monitoring and protection regions (SSMPR) in China. The principles include the gradation principle, i.e. the national level SSMPR and the provincial level SSMPR, the principle of highlighting priorities, namely, the area of an SSMPR should be a fraction of the total area of the country or of the respective province, but the earthquake losses incurred in SSMPR should be a major proportion of the national or provincial ones. The scientific train of thought adopted is to determine the SSMPR on the basis of seismic hazard assessment and loss estimation. Secondly, it reviews the achievements in determining the SSMPRs for the period from 1996 to 2005. The result shows that 10 strong earthquakes occurred during that period in the areas with earthquake monitoring and prediction capability available on the Chinese continent, 8 of which occurred in SSMPRs with the economic loss and death toll accounting for 67% and 92% of the total loss on the Chinese mainland. Lastly, the paper introduces preparatory research for determining the SSMPR for the period from 2006 to 2020, including decade-scale mid-and long-range seismic risk assessment based on seismology, seismogeology, geodesy, earthquake engineering, sociology and stochastics and so on, and the national seismic risk probability map, the seismic hazard (intensity) map, earthquake disaster losses map and the comprehensive seismic risk index, etc. obtained for the period of 2006 to 2020.
文摘With the theory of subcritical crack growth, we can deduce the fundamental equation of regional seismicity acceleration model. Applying this model to intraplate earthquake regions, we select three earthquake subplates: North China Subplate, Chuan Dian Block and Xinjiang Subplate, and divide the three subplates into seven researched regions by the difference of seismicity and tectonic conditions. With the modified equation given by Sornette and Sammis (1995), we analysis the seismicity of each region. To those strong earthquakes already occurred in these region, the model can give close fitting of magnitude and occurrence time, and the result in this article indicates that the seismicity acceleration model can also be used for describing the seismicity of intraplate. In the article, we give the magnitude and occurrence time of possible strong earthquakes in Shanxi, Ordos, Bole Tuokexun, Ayinke Wuqia earthquake regions. In the same subplate or block, the earthquake periods for each earthquake region are similar in time interval. The constant α in model can be used to describe the intensity of regional seismicity, and for the Chinese Mainland, α is 0.4 generally. To the seismicity in Taiwan and other regions with complex tectonic conditions, the model does not fit well at present.
文摘In this paper we present an approach for forecasting the imminent regional seismic activity by using geomagnetic data and Earth tide data. The time periods of seismic activity are the time periods around the Sun-Moon extreme of the diurnal average value of the tide vector module. For analyzing the geomagnetic data behaviour we use diurnal standard deviation of geomagnetic vector components F (North, East, Down) for calculating the time variance GeomagSignal. The Sun storm influence is avoided by using data for daily A-indexes (published by NOAA). The precursor signal for forecasting the incoming regional seismic activity is a simple function of the present and previous day GeomagSignal and A-indexes values. The reliability of the geomagnetic “when, regional” precursor is demonstrated by using statistical analysis of day difference between the times of “predicted” and occurred earthquakes. The base of the analysis is a natural hypothesis that the “predicted” earthquake is the one whose surface energy density in the monitoring point is bigger than the energy densities of all occurred earthquakes in the same period and region. The reliability of the approach was tested using the INTERMAGNET stations data located in Bulgaria, Panagurishte, PAG (Jan 1, 2008-Jan 29, 2014), Romania, Surlari, SUA (Jan 1, 2008-Jan 27, 2014), Italy, L’Aquila, AQU (Jan 1, 2008-May 30, 2013) in the time of EU IRSES BlackSeaHazNet (2011-2014) project. The steps of program for solving the “when, where and how” earthquake prediction problem are shortly described.
基金sponsored by the National Social Science Foundation of China"Research on the Status,Efficiencies and the Policy on the National Significant Seismic Monitoring and Protection Regions"(11&ZD054)
文摘The regulation of the National Significant Seismic Monitoring and Protection Regions(NSSMPR for short) is defined by the Law of the Peoples Republic of China on Protecting Against and Mitigating Earthquake Disasters.The first stage of implementation of the regulation of NSSMPR in the Chinese mainland was finished from 1996 to 2005.The second stage is being carried on from 2006 to 2020.With the support of the National Social Science Foundation,this paper follows up and evaluates the implementation of the regulation of NSSMPR from 1996 to 2012 in the Chinese mainland.Based on analysis of earthquake examples and investigation data,we find that the effect of disaster mitigation is good,and on this basis,some suggestions are proposed to improve the regulation of NSSMPR.
