An Giang province in the Mekong Delta is the most vulnerable province the impact of flooding and climate variability. Thousand of households are at risk due to severe annual floods. This study applied the LVI （liveli...An Giang province in the Mekong Delta is the most vulnerable province the impact of flooding and climate variability. Thousand of households are at risk due to severe annual floods. This study applied the LVI （livelihood vulnerability index） to estimate flood vulnerability of Phu Huu and Ta Danh villages in An Giang province. Data on socio-demographics, livelihoods, health, social networks, physical, financial and natural resources, natural disasters and climate variability were collected from a survey of 120 households in each village. From these data the LVI of each village was calculated. Results show that the overall LV1 of Phu Huu village, located in the early flooded zone, is higher than that of Ta Danh village, located in the late flooded zone. The analysis also indicated that this practical method can be applied for other purposes such as to monitor vulnerability, evaluate development programs or policy effectiveness by incorporating with scenario comparison.展开更多
This study seeks to understand long-term changes of rainfall for the Great Kei River catchment (GKRc) in South Africa for water resources management and planning. Monthly and annual rainfall time series data from 1950...This study seeks to understand long-term changes of rainfall for the Great Kei River catchment (GKRc) in South Africa for water resources management and planning. Monthly and annual rainfall time series data from 1950 to 2017 for 11 rainfall gauging stations are analyzed using various statistical methods. Data obtained from South African Weather Services (SAWS) was quality controlled to enable the use of Mann-Kendall (MK), Theil Sen’s method, Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI), among others to characterise rainfall. Rainfall in the catchment is seasonal (particularly wet in spring and summer) and highly variable with a PCI of 17.2. Years which received rain above and below the mean inter-annually were 46% and 54%, respectively. Seasonality trends also confirm that the GKRc has been progressively receiving less rainfall since 1950, especially in the autumn. The methods are novel in understanding historical and existing trends, variability and characteristics that control freshwater availability in this catchment.展开更多
A new North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, the NAOI, is defined as the differences of normalized sea level pressures regionally zonal-averaged over a broad range of longitudes 80°W-30°E. A comprehensive c...A new North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, the NAOI, is defined as the differences of normalized sea level pressures regionally zonal-averaged over a broad range of longitudes 80°W-30°E. A comprehensive comparison of six NAO indices indicates that the new NAOI provides a more faithful representation of the spatial-temporal variability associated with the NAO on all timescales. A very high signal-to-noise ratio for the NAOI exists for all seasons, and the life cycle represented by the NAOI describes well the seasonal migration for action centers of the NAO. The NAOI captures a larger fraction of the variance of sea level pressure over the North Atlantic sector (20°-90°N, 80°W-30°E), on average 10% more than any other NAO index. There are quite different relationships between the NAOI and surface air temperature during winter and summer. A novel feature, however, is that the NAOI is significantly negative correlated with surface air temperature over the North Atlantic Ocean between 10°-25°N and 70°-30°W, whether in winter or summer. From 1873, the NAOI exhibits strong interannual and decadal variability. Its interannual variability of the twelve calendar months is obviously phase-locked with the seasonal cycle. Moreover, the annual NAOI exhibits a clearer decadal variability in amplitude than the winter NAOI. An upward trend is found in the annual NAOI between the 1870s and 1910s, while the other winter NAO indices fail to show this tendency. The annual NAOI exhibits a strongly positive epoch of 50 years between 1896 and 1950. After 1950, the variability of the annual NAOI is very similar to that of the winter NAO indices.展开更多
The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, or Tibetan Plateau, is a sensitive region for climate change, where the manifestation of global warming is particularly noticeable. The wide climate variability in this region significantly...The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, or Tibetan Plateau, is a sensitive region for climate change, where the manifestation of global warming is particularly noticeable. The wide climate variability in this region significantly affects the local land ecosystem and could consequently lead to notable vegetation changes. In this paper, the interannual variations of the plateau vegetation are investigated using a 21-year normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI） dataset to quantify the consequences of climate warming for the regional ecosystem and its interactions. The results show that vegetation coverage is best in the eastern and southern plateau regions and deteriorates toward the west and north. On the whole, vegetation activity demonstrates a gradual enhancement in an oscillatory manner during 1982-2002. The temporal variation also exhibits striking regional differences： an increasing trend is most apparent in the west, south, north and southeast, whereas a decreasing trend is present along the southern plateau boundary and in the central-east region. Covariance analysis between the NDVI and surface temperature/precipitation suggests that vegetation change is closely related to climate change. However, the controlling physical processes vary geographically. In the west and east, vegetation variability is found to be driven predominantly by temperature, with the impact of precipitation being of secondary importance. In the central plateau, however, temperature and precipitation factors are equally important in modulating the interannual vegetation variability.展开更多
A switching variability index （SVl） constant false alarm rate （CFAR） detector is proposed for improving the detection performance of VI-CFAR detectors in multiple targets backgrounds. When the presence of non-homo...A switching variability index （SVl） constant false alarm rate （CFAR） detector is proposed for improving the detection performance of VI-CFAR detectors in multiple targets backgrounds. When the presence of non-homogeneity in CFAR reference windows is indicated by a VI-CFAR detector, a switching- CFAR detector is introduced to optimize the performance of the VI-CFAR detector in homogeneous, multiple targets and clutter edge backgrounds. The structure and parameters selection method of the SVI-CFAR detector is presented. Comparisons with classic CFAR detectors and recently proposed detectors are also given. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that SVICFAR detector maintains the good performance of the VI-CFAR detector in homogeneous and clutter edge backgrounds, while greatly improving the capacity of anti-multi targets.展开更多
In the case of Z＋^d（d ≥ 2）-the positive d-dimensional lattice points with partial ordering ≤, {Xk,k∈ Z＋^d} i.i.d, random variables with mean 0, Sn =∑k≤nXk and Vn^2 = ∑j≤nXj^2, the precise asymptotics for ∑...In the case of Z＋^d（d ≥ 2）-the positive d-dimensional lattice points with partial ordering ≤, {Xk,k∈ Z＋^d} i.i.d, random variables with mean 0, Sn =∑k≤nXk and Vn^2 = ∑j≤nXj^2, the precise asymptotics for ∑n1/｜n｜（log｜n｜dP（｜Sn/Vn｜≥ε√log log｜n｜） and ∑n（logn｜）b/｜n｜（log｜n｜）^d-1P（｜Sn/Vn｜≥ε√log n）,as ε↓0,is established.展开更多
Septic shock is a common critical condition, for which effective early fluid resuscitation is the therapeutic focus. According to the 2008 international guidelines for management of severe sepsis and septic shock, res...Septic shock is a common critical condition, for which effective early fluid resuscitation is the therapeutic focus. According to the 2008 international guidelines for management of severe sepsis and septic shock, resuscitation should achieve a central venous pressure （CVP） of 8-12 mmHg within the first 6 h. However, it is still uncertain about the sensitivity and specificity of CVP in reflecting the cardiac preload. Ultrasonography is a simple, rapid, non-invasive, and repeatable method for the measurement of sensitivity and specificity of CVP and has thus gradually attracted the increasing attention of physicians. It was reported that ultrasonography can show the inferior vena cava diameter, respiratory variability index, and blood volume in patients with sepsis or heart failure.展开更多
Drylands are highly vulnerable to climate change and human activities.The drylands of China account for approximately 10.8%of global drylands,and China is the country most severely affected by aridity in Asia.Therefor...Drylands are highly vulnerable to climate change and human activities.The drylands of China account for approximately 10.8%of global drylands,and China is the country most severely affected by aridity in Asia.Therefore,studying the spatial variation characteristics in soil multifunctionality(SMF)and investigating the driving factors are critical for elucidating and managing the functions of dryland ecosystems in China.Based on the environmental factors(mean annual precipitation(MAP),mean annual temperature(MAT),solar radiation(Srad),soil acidity(pH),enhanced vegetation index(EVI),and cation exchange capacity(CEC))and aridity from the“dataset of soil properties for land surface modeling over China”,we used non-linear regression,ordinary least square(OLS)regression,structural equation model(SEM),and other analytical methods to investigate the relationships of SMF with environmental factors across different aridity levels in China.SMF in different dryland regions varied significantly and showed a patchy distribution,with SMF index values ranging from–1.21 to 2.42.Regions with SMF index values from–0.20 to 0.51 accounting for 63.0%of dryland area in China.OLS regression results revealed that environmental factors like MAP,MAT,Srad,pH,EVI,and CEC were significantly related to SMF(P<0.05).MAP and MAT were correlated to SMF at the whole aridity level(P<0.05).SEM results showed that the driving factors of SMF differed depending on the aridity level.Soil pH was the strongest driving factor of SMF when the aridity was less than 0.80(P<0.001).Both soil CEC and EVI had a positive effect on SMF when aridity was greater than 0.80(P<0.01),with soil CEC being the strongest driving factor.The importance ranking revealed that the relative importance contribution of soil pH to SMF was greatest when aridity was less than 0.80(66.9%).When aridity was set to greater than 0.80,the relative importance contributions of CEC and EVI to SMF increased(45.1%and 31.9%,respectively).Our findings indicated that SMF had high spatial heterogeneity in drylands of China.The aridity threshold controlled the impact of environmental factors on SMF.展开更多
Intensity and variability of droughts are considered inIranduring the period 1951 to 2005. Four variables are considered: the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), the soil moisture, the temperature and the precipitat...Intensity and variability of droughts are considered inIranduring the period 1951 to 2005. Four variables are considered: the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), the soil moisture, the temperature and the precipitation (products used for the analysis are downloaded from the NCAR website). Link with the climatic indexLa Ninais also considered (NOAA downloadable products is used). The analysis is based on basic statistical approaches (correlation, linear regressions and Principal Component Analysis). The analysis shows that PDSI is highly correlated to the soil moisture and poorly correlated to the other variables—although the temperature in the warm season shows high correlation to the PDSI and that a severe drought was experienced during 1999-2002 inthe country.展开更多
A novel flocking control approach is proposed for multi-agent systems by integrating the variables of velocities, motion directions, and positions of agents. A received signal strength indicator （RSSI） is applied as...A novel flocking control approach is proposed for multi-agent systems by integrating the variables of velocities, motion directions, and positions of agents. A received signal strength indicator （RSSI） is applied as a variable to estimate the inter-distance between agents. A key parameter that contains the local information of agents is defined, and a multi-variable controller is proposed based on the parameter. For the position control of agents, the RSSI is introduced to substitute the distance as a control variable in the systems. The advantages of RSSI include that the relative distance between every two agents can be adjusted through the communication quality under different environments, and it can shun the shortage of the limit of sensors. Simulation studies demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed control approach.展开更多
In this article, we study the variable selection of partially linear single-index model(PLSIM). Based on the minimized average variance estimation, the variable selection of PLSIM is done by minimizing average varianc...In this article, we study the variable selection of partially linear single-index model(PLSIM). Based on the minimized average variance estimation, the variable selection of PLSIM is done by minimizing average variance with adaptive l1 penalty. Implementation algorithm is given. Under some regular conditions, we demonstrate the oracle properties of aLASSO procedure for PLSIM. Simulations are used to investigate the effectiveness of the proposed method for variable selection of PLSIM.展开更多
This study presents the work commenced in northern Thailand on spatial and temporal variability of rainfall. Thirty years (1988-2017) rainfall data of eight meteorological stations were used for assessing temporal var...This study presents the work commenced in northern Thailand on spatial and temporal variability of rainfall. Thirty years (1988-2017) rainfall data of eight meteorological stations were used for assessing temporal variability and trend analysis. The results showed decreasing trend in rainfall from its first half of the observed study period (1988-2002) to last half of the time period (2003-2017) in total average annual as well as monsoonal average rainfall by 14.92% and 15.50% respectively. It was predicted from linear regression results that by 2030 the average annual and monsoonal rainfall will drop by 35% and 34.10% respectively. All stations showed negative trend except Fakara met-station in annual rainfall. In the seasonal trend analysis, the results showed decreasing trend almost in all met-stations. Mann-Kendall trend test was applied to assess the trend. All met-stations show significant negative trend. To assess drought in the study area, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was applied to 12-month temporal time period. The results predicted meteorological drought in the near future. The spatial distribution of rainfall presented changing phenomena in average annual, monsoonal, winter, and summer seasons in both analyzed periods.展开更多
This paper deals with Bianchi type VI0 anisotropic cosmological models filled with a bulk viscous cosmic fluid in the presence of time-varying gravitational and cosmological constant. Physically realistic solutions of...This paper deals with Bianchi type VI0 anisotropic cosmological models filled with a bulk viscous cosmic fluid in the presence of time-varying gravitational and cosmological constant. Physically realistic solutions of Einstein's field equations are obtained by assuming the conditions 1) the expansion scalar is proportional to shear scalar 2) the coefficient of the bulk viscosity is a power function of the energy density and 3) the cosmic fluid obeys the barotropic equation of state. We observe that the corresponding models retain the well established features of the standard cosmology and in addition, are in accordance with recent type Ia supernovae observations. Physical behaviours of the cosmological models are also discussed.展开更多
We consider the problem of variable selection for the single-index random effects models with longitudinal data. An automatic variable selection procedure is developed using smooth-threshold. The proposed method share...We consider the problem of variable selection for the single-index random effects models with longitudinal data. An automatic variable selection procedure is developed using smooth-threshold. The proposed method shares some of the desired features of existing variable selection methods: the resulting estimator enjoys the oracle property;the proposed procedure avoids the convex optimization problem and is flexible and easy to implement. Moreover, we use the penalized weighted deviance criterion for a data-driven choice of the tuning parameters. Simulation studies are carried out to assess the performance of our method, and a real dataset is analyzed for further illustration.展开更多
As an extended period of unusually dry weather conditions without sufficient rain, drought poses enormous risk on societies. Characterized by the absence of precipitation for long periods of time, often resulting in w...As an extended period of unusually dry weather conditions without sufficient rain, drought poses enormous risk on societies. Characterized by the absence of precipitation for long periods of time, often resulting in water scarcity, droughts are increasingly posing significant environmental challenges. Drought is therefore considered an important element in the management of water resources, especially groundwater resources during drought. This study therefore sought to investigate the rainfall variability and the frequency of drought for the period 1991 to 2020 in Bamako based on monthly rainfall data from Bamako-Senou gauge station. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) for 12-month, 6-month and 3-month timescales and the SPI for annual totals were used to characterized drought in the study area (Bamako). Univariate parametric probability distributions such as Normal, Log-normal, Gumbel type I and Pearson type III (P3) distributions were fitted with drought variables (severity and duration) for future planning and management. Non-parametric test such as Mann-Kendall trend test was also used to detect trend in annual rainfall data. The results showed that based on 12-month SPI, Bamako experienced two (02) extreme droughts one in July 2002 (SPI = -2.2165) and another in June 2015 (SPI = -2.0598 QUOTE SPI=-2.0598 ). Drought years represented 46.67% for the overall periods according to the SPI for annual totals. The result further indicated that based on the goodness of fit test, the P3 distribution represents the best fitted distribution to both drought severity and duration over Bamako. Bamako is expected to experience several severe severities with higher and shorter duration in the future. Severities with 1, 2, 6, and 10-month duration had return periods ranged from 2.4 to 3.8 years, while 5, 10, 20, 25, 50, and 100-year return periods had 18.51, 26.08, 33.25, 35.50, 42.38, and 49.14 severities, respectively, and durations associated to these severities were 19.8, 26.9, 33.5, 35.6, 42, and 48.2 months, respectively.展开更多
文摘An Giang province in the Mekong Delta is the most vulnerable province the impact of flooding and climate variability. Thousand of households are at risk due to severe annual floods. This study applied the LVI （livelihood vulnerability index） to estimate flood vulnerability of Phu Huu and Ta Danh villages in An Giang province. Data on socio-demographics, livelihoods, health, social networks, physical, financial and natural resources, natural disasters and climate variability were collected from a survey of 120 households in each village. From these data the LVI of each village was calculated. Results show that the overall LV1 of Phu Huu village, located in the early flooded zone, is higher than that of Ta Danh village, located in the late flooded zone. The analysis also indicated that this practical method can be applied for other purposes such as to monitor vulnerability, evaluate development programs or policy effectiveness by incorporating with scenario comparison.
文摘This study seeks to understand long-term changes of rainfall for the Great Kei River catchment (GKRc) in South Africa for water resources management and planning. Monthly and annual rainfall time series data from 1950 to 2017 for 11 rainfall gauging stations are analyzed using various statistical methods. Data obtained from South African Weather Services (SAWS) was quality controlled to enable the use of Mann-Kendall (MK), Theil Sen’s method, Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI), among others to characterise rainfall. Rainfall in the catchment is seasonal (particularly wet in spring and summer) and highly variable with a PCI of 17.2. Years which received rain above and below the mean inter-annually were 46% and 54%, respectively. Seasonality trends also confirm that the GKRc has been progressively receiving less rainfall since 1950, especially in the autumn. The methods are novel in understanding historical and existing trends, variability and characteristics that control freshwater availability in this catchment.
基金supported jointly by the NOAA Arctic Research,CAS Project ZKCX2-SW-210the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.40275025)
文摘A new North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, the NAOI, is defined as the differences of normalized sea level pressures regionally zonal-averaged over a broad range of longitudes 80°W-30°E. A comprehensive comparison of six NAO indices indicates that the new NAOI provides a more faithful representation of the spatial-temporal variability associated with the NAO on all timescales. A very high signal-to-noise ratio for the NAOI exists for all seasons, and the life cycle represented by the NAOI describes well the seasonal migration for action centers of the NAO. The NAOI captures a larger fraction of the variance of sea level pressure over the North Atlantic sector (20°-90°N, 80°W-30°E), on average 10% more than any other NAO index. There are quite different relationships between the NAOI and surface air temperature during winter and summer. A novel feature, however, is that the NAOI is significantly negative correlated with surface air temperature over the North Atlantic Ocean between 10°-25°N and 70°-30°W, whether in winter or summer. From 1873, the NAOI exhibits strong interannual and decadal variability. Its interannual variability of the twelve calendar months is obviously phase-locked with the seasonal cycle. Moreover, the annual NAOI exhibits a clearer decadal variability in amplitude than the winter NAOI. An upward trend is found in the annual NAOI between the 1870s and 1910s, while the other winter NAO indices fail to show this tendency. The annual NAOI exhibits a strongly positive epoch of 50 years between 1896 and 1950. After 1950, the variability of the annual NAOI is very similar to that of the winter NAO indices.
基金supported by the foundation from:the program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(40675037)the key program of the Sichuan Province Youth Science and Technology Fund(05ZQ026-023)the opening project of the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences.
文摘The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, or Tibetan Plateau, is a sensitive region for climate change, where the manifestation of global warming is particularly noticeable. The wide climate variability in this region significantly affects the local land ecosystem and could consequently lead to notable vegetation changes. In this paper, the interannual variations of the plateau vegetation are investigated using a 21-year normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI） dataset to quantify the consequences of climate warming for the regional ecosystem and its interactions. The results show that vegetation coverage is best in the eastern and southern plateau regions and deteriorates toward the west and north. On the whole, vegetation activity demonstrates a gradual enhancement in an oscillatory manner during 1982-2002. The temporal variation also exhibits striking regional differences： an increasing trend is most apparent in the west, south, north and southeast, whereas a decreasing trend is present along the southern plateau boundary and in the central-east region. Covariance analysis between the NDVI and surface temperature/precipitation suggests that vegetation change is closely related to climate change. However, the controlling physical processes vary geographically. In the west and east, vegetation variability is found to be driven predominantly by temperature, with the impact of precipitation being of secondary importance. In the central plateau, however, temperature and precipitation factors are equally important in modulating the interannual vegetation variability.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61102158)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2011M500667)
文摘A switching variability index （SVl） constant false alarm rate （CFAR） detector is proposed for improving the detection performance of VI-CFAR detectors in multiple targets backgrounds. When the presence of non-homogeneity in CFAR reference windows is indicated by a VI-CFAR detector, a switching- CFAR detector is introduced to optimize the performance of the VI-CFAR detector in homogeneous, multiple targets and clutter edge backgrounds. The structure and parameters selection method of the SVI-CFAR detector is presented. Comparisons with classic CFAR detectors and recently proposed detectors are also given. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that SVICFAR detector maintains the good performance of the VI-CFAR detector in homogeneous and clutter edge backgrounds, while greatly improving the capacity of anti-multi targets.
文摘In the case of Z＋^d（d ≥ 2）-the positive d-dimensional lattice points with partial ordering ≤, {Xk,k∈ Z＋^d} i.i.d, random variables with mean 0, Sn =∑k≤nXk and Vn^2 = ∑j≤nXj^2, the precise asymptotics for ∑n1/｜n｜（log｜n｜dP（｜Sn/Vn｜≥ε√log log｜n｜） and ∑n（logn｜）b/｜n｜（log｜n｜）^d-1P（｜Sn/Vn｜≥ε√log n）,as ε↓0,is established.
文摘Septic shock is a common critical condition, for which effective early fluid resuscitation is the therapeutic focus. According to the 2008 international guidelines for management of severe sepsis and septic shock, resuscitation should achieve a central venous pressure （CVP） of 8-12 mmHg within the first 6 h. However, it is still uncertain about the sensitivity and specificity of CVP in reflecting the cardiac preload. Ultrasonography is a simple, rapid, non-invasive, and repeatable method for the measurement of sensitivity and specificity of CVP and has thus gradually attracted the increasing attention of physicians. It was reported that ultrasonography can show the inferior vena cava diameter, respiratory variability index, and blood volume in patients with sepsis or heart failure.
基金supported by the Xinjiang Outstanding Youth fund(2021D01E03)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U2003214 and 41977099).
文摘Drylands are highly vulnerable to climate change and human activities.The drylands of China account for approximately 10.8%of global drylands,and China is the country most severely affected by aridity in Asia.Therefore,studying the spatial variation characteristics in soil multifunctionality(SMF)and investigating the driving factors are critical for elucidating and managing the functions of dryland ecosystems in China.Based on the environmental factors(mean annual precipitation(MAP),mean annual temperature(MAT),solar radiation(Srad),soil acidity(pH),enhanced vegetation index(EVI),and cation exchange capacity(CEC))and aridity from the“dataset of soil properties for land surface modeling over China”,we used non-linear regression,ordinary least square(OLS)regression,structural equation model(SEM),and other analytical methods to investigate the relationships of SMF with environmental factors across different aridity levels in China.SMF in different dryland regions varied significantly and showed a patchy distribution,with SMF index values ranging from–1.21 to 2.42.Regions with SMF index values from–0.20 to 0.51 accounting for 63.0%of dryland area in China.OLS regression results revealed that environmental factors like MAP,MAT,Srad,pH,EVI,and CEC were significantly related to SMF(P<0.05).MAP and MAT were correlated to SMF at the whole aridity level(P<0.05).SEM results showed that the driving factors of SMF differed depending on the aridity level.Soil pH was the strongest driving factor of SMF when the aridity was less than 0.80(P<0.001).Both soil CEC and EVI had a positive effect on SMF when aridity was greater than 0.80(P<0.01),with soil CEC being the strongest driving factor.The importance ranking revealed that the relative importance contribution of soil pH to SMF was greatest when aridity was less than 0.80(66.9%).When aridity was set to greater than 0.80,the relative importance contributions of CEC and EVI to SMF increased(45.1%and 31.9%,respectively).Our findings indicated that SMF had high spatial heterogeneity in drylands of China.The aridity threshold controlled the impact of environmental factors on SMF.
文摘Intensity and variability of droughts are considered inIranduring the period 1951 to 2005. Four variables are considered: the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), the soil moisture, the temperature and the precipitation (products used for the analysis are downloaded from the NCAR website). Link with the climatic indexLa Ninais also considered (NOAA downloadable products is used). The analysis is based on basic statistical approaches (correlation, linear regressions and Principal Component Analysis). The analysis shows that PDSI is highly correlated to the soil moisture and poorly correlated to the other variables—although the temperature in the warm season shows high correlation to the PDSI and that a severe drought was experienced during 1999-2002 inthe country.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (973Program) under Grant No. 2010CB731800the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 60934003 and 61074065the Key Project for Natural Science Research of Hebei Education Departmentunder Grant No. ZD200908
文摘A novel flocking control approach is proposed for multi-agent systems by integrating the variables of velocities, motion directions, and positions of agents. A received signal strength indicator （RSSI） is applied as a variable to estimate the inter-distance between agents. A key parameter that contains the local information of agents is defined, and a multi-variable controller is proposed based on the parameter. For the position control of agents, the RSSI is introduced to substitute the distance as a control variable in the systems. The advantages of RSSI include that the relative distance between every two agents can be adjusted through the communication quality under different environments, and it can shun the shortage of the limit of sensors. Simulation studies demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed control approach.
文摘In this article, we study the variable selection of partially linear single-index model(PLSIM). Based on the minimized average variance estimation, the variable selection of PLSIM is done by minimizing average variance with adaptive l1 penalty. Implementation algorithm is given. Under some regular conditions, we demonstrate the oracle properties of aLASSO procedure for PLSIM. Simulations are used to investigate the effectiveness of the proposed method for variable selection of PLSIM.
文摘This study presents the work commenced in northern Thailand on spatial and temporal variability of rainfall. Thirty years (1988-2017) rainfall data of eight meteorological stations were used for assessing temporal variability and trend analysis. The results showed decreasing trend in rainfall from its first half of the observed study period (1988-2002) to last half of the time period (2003-2017) in total average annual as well as monsoonal average rainfall by 14.92% and 15.50% respectively. It was predicted from linear regression results that by 2030 the average annual and monsoonal rainfall will drop by 35% and 34.10% respectively. All stations showed negative trend except Fakara met-station in annual rainfall. In the seasonal trend analysis, the results showed decreasing trend almost in all met-stations. Mann-Kendall trend test was applied to assess the trend. All met-stations show significant negative trend. To assess drought in the study area, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was applied to 12-month temporal time period. The results predicted meteorological drought in the near future. The spatial distribution of rainfall presented changing phenomena in average annual, monsoonal, winter, and summer seasons in both analyzed periods.
文摘This paper deals with Bianchi type VI0 anisotropic cosmological models filled with a bulk viscous cosmic fluid in the presence of time-varying gravitational and cosmological constant. Physically realistic solutions of Einstein's field equations are obtained by assuming the conditions 1) the expansion scalar is proportional to shear scalar 2) the coefficient of the bulk viscosity is a power function of the energy density and 3) the cosmic fluid obeys the barotropic equation of state. We observe that the corresponding models retain the well established features of the standard cosmology and in addition, are in accordance with recent type Ia supernovae observations. Physical behaviours of the cosmological models are also discussed.
文摘We consider the problem of variable selection for the single-index random effects models with longitudinal data. An automatic variable selection procedure is developed using smooth-threshold. The proposed method shares some of the desired features of existing variable selection methods: the resulting estimator enjoys the oracle property;the proposed procedure avoids the convex optimization problem and is flexible and easy to implement. Moreover, we use the penalized weighted deviance criterion for a data-driven choice of the tuning parameters. Simulation studies are carried out to assess the performance of our method, and a real dataset is analyzed for further illustration.
文摘As an extended period of unusually dry weather conditions without sufficient rain, drought poses enormous risk on societies. Characterized by the absence of precipitation for long periods of time, often resulting in water scarcity, droughts are increasingly posing significant environmental challenges. Drought is therefore considered an important element in the management of water resources, especially groundwater resources during drought. This study therefore sought to investigate the rainfall variability and the frequency of drought for the period 1991 to 2020 in Bamako based on monthly rainfall data from Bamako-Senou gauge station. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) for 12-month, 6-month and 3-month timescales and the SPI for annual totals were used to characterized drought in the study area (Bamako). Univariate parametric probability distributions such as Normal, Log-normal, Gumbel type I and Pearson type III (P3) distributions were fitted with drought variables (severity and duration) for future planning and management. Non-parametric test such as Mann-Kendall trend test was also used to detect trend in annual rainfall data. The results showed that based on 12-month SPI, Bamako experienced two (02) extreme droughts one in July 2002 (SPI = -2.2165) and another in June 2015 (SPI = -2.0598 QUOTE SPI=-2.0598 ). Drought years represented 46.67% for the overall periods according to the SPI for annual totals. The result further indicated that based on the goodness of fit test, the P3 distribution represents the best fitted distribution to both drought severity and duration over Bamako. Bamako is expected to experience several severe severities with higher and shorter duration in the future. Severities with 1, 2, 6, and 10-month duration had return periods ranged from 2.4 to 3.8 years, while 5, 10, 20, 25, 50, and 100-year return periods had 18.51, 26.08, 33.25, 35.50, 42.38, and 49.14 severities, respectively, and durations associated to these severities were 19.8, 26.9, 33.5, 35.6, 42, and 48.2 months, respectively.
