Extreme high-temperature stress(HTS) associated with climate change poses potential threats to wheat grain yield and quality. Wheat grain protein concentration(GPC) is a determinant of wheat quality for human nutritio...Extreme high-temperature stress(HTS) associated with climate change poses potential threats to wheat grain yield and quality. Wheat grain protein concentration(GPC) is a determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition and is often neglected in attempts to assess climate change impacts on wheat production. Crop models are useful tools for quantification of temperature impacts on grain yield and quality.Current crop models either cannot simulate or can simulate only partially the effects of HTS on crop N dynamics and grain N accumulation. There is a paucity of observational data on crop N and grain quality collected under systematic HTS scenarios to develop algorithms for model improvement as well as evaluate crop models. Two-year phytotron experiments were conducted with two wheat cultivars under HTS at anthesis, grain filling, and both stages. HTS significantly reduced total aboveground N and increased the rate of grain N accumulation, while total aboveground N and the rate of grain N accumulation were more sensitive to HTS at anthesis than at grain filling. The observed relationships between total aboveground N, rate of grain N accumulation, and HTS were quantified and incorporated into the WheatGrow model. The new HTS routines improved simulation of the dynamics of total aboveground N, grain N accumulation, and GPC by the model. The improved model provided better estimates of total aboveground N, grain N accumulation, and GPC under HTS(the normalized root mean square error was reduced by 40%, 85%, and 80%, respectively) than the original WheatGrow model. The improvements in the model enhance its applicability to the assessment of climate change effects on wheat grain quality by reducing the uncertainties of simulating N dynamics and grain quality under HTS.展开更多
以河南省商丘市为研究区,首先采用OAT(One-at-a-time)方法对WheatGrow模型的输入品种参数进行敏感性分析,在此基础上以抽穗期的开始日期作为约束条件构建代价函数,引入SCE-UA(Shuffled complex evolution method developed at the Unive...以河南省商丘市为研究区,首先采用OAT(One-at-a-time)方法对WheatGrow模型的输入品种参数进行敏感性分析,在此基础上以抽穗期的开始日期作为约束条件构建代价函数,引入SCE-UA(Shuffled complex evolution method developed at the University of Arizona)算法求解得到最优作物品种参数组合,并利用2015—2016年度和2016—2017年度田间实验资料对SCE-UA算法的有效性进行验证。结果表明,基本早熟性参数对穗分化期的模拟结果影响最显著,温度敏感性参数比光周期敏感性参数和生理春化时间参数具有更高的敏感度,生理春化时间的敏感度最低。基于优化后的参数得到的穗分化期模拟值与观测值之间的平均绝对误差(Mean absolute error,MAE)和均方根误差(Root mean square error,RMSE)均小于3 d,表明SCE-UA算法可以有效地获取WheatGrow模型最优品种参数组合。本研究可为WheatGrow模型品种参数的调整优化和模型的推广应用提供依据。展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2019YFA0607404)the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(BK20180523)+2 种基金the National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars(31725020)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(31801260,31872848,41961124008,and 32021004)the China Scholarship Council。
文摘Extreme high-temperature stress(HTS) associated with climate change poses potential threats to wheat grain yield and quality. Wheat grain protein concentration(GPC) is a determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition and is often neglected in attempts to assess climate change impacts on wheat production. Crop models are useful tools for quantification of temperature impacts on grain yield and quality.Current crop models either cannot simulate or can simulate only partially the effects of HTS on crop N dynamics and grain N accumulation. There is a paucity of observational data on crop N and grain quality collected under systematic HTS scenarios to develop algorithms for model improvement as well as evaluate crop models. Two-year phytotron experiments were conducted with two wheat cultivars under HTS at anthesis, grain filling, and both stages. HTS significantly reduced total aboveground N and increased the rate of grain N accumulation, while total aboveground N and the rate of grain N accumulation were more sensitive to HTS at anthesis than at grain filling. The observed relationships between total aboveground N, rate of grain N accumulation, and HTS were quantified and incorporated into the WheatGrow model. The new HTS routines improved simulation of the dynamics of total aboveground N, grain N accumulation, and GPC by the model. The improved model provided better estimates of total aboveground N, grain N accumulation, and GPC under HTS(the normalized root mean square error was reduced by 40%, 85%, and 80%, respectively) than the original WheatGrow model. The improvements in the model enhance its applicability to the assessment of climate change effects on wheat grain quality by reducing the uncertainties of simulating N dynamics and grain quality under HTS.
文摘以河南省商丘市为研究区,首先采用OAT(One-at-a-time)方法对WheatGrow模型的输入品种参数进行敏感性分析,在此基础上以抽穗期的开始日期作为约束条件构建代价函数,引入SCE-UA(Shuffled complex evolution method developed at the University of Arizona)算法求解得到最优作物品种参数组合,并利用2015—2016年度和2016—2017年度田间实验资料对SCE-UA算法的有效性进行验证。结果表明,基本早熟性参数对穗分化期的模拟结果影响最显著,温度敏感性参数比光周期敏感性参数和生理春化时间参数具有更高的敏感度,生理春化时间的敏感度最低。基于优化后的参数得到的穗分化期模拟值与观测值之间的平均绝对误差(Mean absolute error,MAE)和均方根误差(Root mean square error,RMSE)均小于3 d,表明SCE-UA算法可以有效地获取WheatGrow模型最优品种参数组合。本研究可为WheatGrow模型品种参数的调整优化和模型的推广应用提供依据。
