By using error correction model, I conduct co-integration analysis on the research of the relationship between the per capita practical consumption and per capita practical disposable income of urban residents in Huna...By using error correction model, I conduct co-integration analysis on the research of the relationship between the per capita practical consumption and per capita practical disposable income of urban residents in Hunan Province from 1978 to 2009. The results show that there is a co-integration relationship between the per capita practical consumption and the practical per capita disposable income of urban residents, and based on these, the corresponding error correction model is established. Finally, corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward as follows: broaden the income channel of urban residents; create goods consuming environment; perfect socialist security system.展开更多
This study aims to address the deviation in downstream tasks caused by inaccurate recognition results when applying Automatic Speech Recognition(ASR)technology in the Air Traffic Control(ATC)field.This paper presents ...This study aims to address the deviation in downstream tasks caused by inaccurate recognition results when applying Automatic Speech Recognition(ASR)technology in the Air Traffic Control(ATC)field.This paper presents a novel cascaded model architecture,namely Conformer-CTC/Attention-T5(CCAT),to build a highly accurate and robust ATC speech recognition model.To tackle the challenges posed by noise and fast speech rate in ATC,the Conformer model is employed to extract robust and discriminative speech representations from raw waveforms.On the decoding side,the Attention mechanism is integrated to facilitate precise alignment between input features and output characters.The Text-To-Text Transfer Transformer(T5)language model is also introduced to handle particular pronunciations and code-mixing issues,providing more accurate and concise textual output for downstream tasks.To enhance the model’s robustness,transfer learning and data augmentation techniques are utilized in the training strategy.The model’s performance is optimized by performing hyperparameter tunings,such as adjusting the number of attention heads,encoder layers,and the weights of the loss function.The experimental results demonstrate the significant contributions of data augmentation,hyperparameter tuning,and error correction models to the overall model performance.On the Our ATC Corpus dataset,the proposed model achieves a Character Error Rate(CER)of 3.44%,representing a 3.64%improvement compared to the baseline model.Moreover,the effectiveness of the proposed model is validated on two publicly available datasets.On the AISHELL-1 dataset,the CCAT model achieves a CER of 3.42%,showcasing a 1.23%improvement over the baseline model.Similarly,on the LibriSpeech dataset,the CCAT model achieves a Word Error Rate(WER)of 5.27%,demonstrating a performance improvement of 7.67%compared to the baseline model.Additionally,this paper proposes an evaluation criterion for assessing the robustness of ATC speech recognition systems.In robustness evaluation experiments based on this criterion,the proposed model demonstrates a performance improvement of 22%compared to the baseline model.展开更多
This study investigated the impact of China’s monetary policy on both the money market and stock markets,assuming that non-policy variables would not respond contemporaneously to changes in policy variables.Monetary ...This study investigated the impact of China’s monetary policy on both the money market and stock markets,assuming that non-policy variables would not respond contemporaneously to changes in policy variables.Monetary policy adjustments are swiftly observed in money markets and gradually extend to the stock market.The study examined the effects of monetary policy shocks using three primary instruments:interest rate policy,reserve requirement ratio,and open market operations.Monthly data from 2007 to 2013 were analyzed using vector error correction(VEC)models.The findings suggest a likely presence of long-lasting and stable relationships among monetary policy,the money market,and stock markets.This research holds practical implications for Chinese policymakers,particularly in managing the challenges associated with fluctuation risks linked to high foreign exchange reserves,aiming to achieve autonomy in monetary policy and formulate effective monetary strategies to stimulate economic growth.展开更多
A whispering gallery mode resonator(WGMR)filter can narrow laser linewidth while significantly changing the output power characteristics of fiber laser system.It is found that traditional laser output power model is i...A whispering gallery mode resonator(WGMR)filter can narrow laser linewidth while significantly changing the output power characteristics of fiber laser system.It is found that traditional laser output power model is invalid.We report a correction model of a narrow linewidth fiber laser filtered with a WGMR to analyze its power.We believe that the loss of the laser system and the threshold gain increase caused by the WGMR filter lead to the predominate amplified spontaneous emission during the original laser period.According to that,we assume the correction coefficient is an exponential decay related to the Er-doped fiber length in the large loss situation,and we verify it experimentally.As a result,the correction model is valid for WGMR-filtered fiber laser.展开更多
Heilongjiang is a large agriculture province.Problems of agriculture,rural areas and farmers are urgent to be solved.The development of agriculture needs the support of agricultural credits,because finance is the cent...Heilongjiang is a large agriculture province.Problems of agriculture,rural areas and farmers are urgent to be solved.The development of agriculture needs the support of agricultural credits,because finance is the center of agriculture economy.However,the low comparative advantage in agriculture and pursuit of the capital interests which aggravate the conflicts of supply and demand of agricultural funds.Lacking of fund is the main factor that constrains the development of agricultural economy.In order to analyze the economic effect of agricultural credits on agricultural economy,an error correction model was set up to research the relationship between them,which based on the least square methods.Through the study of the contribution from agricultural credits to total value of agricultural out-put,the empirical evidence for developing the rural financial vigorously was provided,in order to promote the agricultura leconomic development.展开更多
This study investigates the degree of capital mobility in a panel of 16 Latin American and 4 Caribbean countries during 1960 to 2017 against the backdrop of the Feldstein-Horioka hypothesis by applying recent panel da...This study investigates the degree of capital mobility in a panel of 16 Latin American and 4 Caribbean countries during 1960 to 2017 against the backdrop of the Feldstein-Horioka hypothesis by applying recent panel data techniques.This is the first study on capital mobility in Latin American and Caribbean countries to employ the recently developed panel data procedure of the dynamic common correlated effects modeling technique of Chudik and Pesaran(J Econ 188:393–420,2015)and the error-correction testing of Gengenbach,Urbain,and Westerlund(Panel error correction testing with global stochastic trends,2008,J Appl Econ 31:982–1004,2016).These approaches address the serious panel data econometric issues of crosssection dependence,slope heterogeneity,nonstationarity,and endogeneity in a multifactor error-structure framework.The empirical findings of this study reveal a low average(mean)savings–retention coefficient for the panel as a whole and for most individual countries,as well as indicating a cointegration relationship between saving and investment ratios.The results indicate that there is a relatively high degree of capital mobility in the Latin American and Caribbean countries in the short run,while the long-run solvency condition is maintained,which is due to reduced frictions in goods and services markets causing increase competition.Increased capital mobility in these countries can promote economic growth and hasten the process of globalization by creating a conducive economic environment for FDI in these countries.展开更多
Oil spill models can effectively simulate the trajectories and fate of oil slicks, which is an essential element in contingency planning and effective response strategies prepared for oil spill accidents. However, whe...Oil spill models can effectively simulate the trajectories and fate of oil slicks, which is an essential element in contingency planning and effective response strategies prepared for oil spill accidents. However, when applied to offshore areas such as the Bohai Sea, the trajectories and fate of oil slicks would be affected by time-varying factors in a regional scale, which are assumed to be constant in most of the present models. In fact, these factors in offshore regions show much more variation over time than in the deep sea, due to offshore bathymetric and climatic characteristics. In this paper, the challenge of parameterizing these offshore factors is tackled. The remote sensing data of the region are used to analyze the modification of wind-induced drift factors, and a well-suited solution is established in parameter correction mechanism for oil spill models. The novelty of the algorithm is the self-adaptive modification mechanism of the drift factors derived from the remote sensing data for the targeted sea region, in respect to empirical constants in the present models. Considering this situation, a new regional oil spill model(i4Oil Spill) for the Bohai Sea is developed, which can simulate oil transformation and fate processes by Eulerian-Lagrangian methodology. The forecasting accuracy of the proposed model is proven by the validation results in the comparison between model simulation and subsequent satellite observations on the Penglai 19-3 oil spill accident. The performance of the model parameter correction mechanism is evaluated by comparing with the real spilled oil position extracted from ASAR images.展开更多
This study examines the spillover effects of U.S.monetary policy normalization on Nigeria 10-Year Treasury bond yield between 2011 and 2017,using the vector error correction model approach.Our results reveal that dome...This study examines the spillover effects of U.S.monetary policy normalization on Nigeria 10-Year Treasury bond yield between 2011 and 2017,using the vector error correction model approach.Our results reveal that domestic factors,such as exchange rate and inflation,rather than the U.S.10-Year sovereign bond yield,are the key drivers of Nigeria 10-Year bond yield.Additionally,the spillover effect from the U.S.monetary policy was amplified by oil price shocks and changes in Nigeria’s monetary policy rates.Our counterfactual analysis confirms the findings.展开更多
Banking is an essential sector of Palestine’s economy.More credits provided by banks are considered to have a positive impact on economic growth so that the overall objective of this study is to examine the impact of...Banking is an essential sector of Palestine’s economy.More credits provided by banks are considered to have a positive impact on economic growth so that the overall objective of this study is to examine the impact of bank lending on economic growth in Palestine.The study employs the Augmented Dickey-Fuller to test for stationarity in the time series,The Johansen co-integration,Vector Autoregressive Model and Vector Error Correction Model are employed to identify the long-run and short-run dynamics among the variables,and Granger causality test in order to determine the direction of causality.The study finds that a long run relationship exists among the variables and insignificant short run relationship.Also,the study findings show that there is unidirectional causality and runs from GDP to bank lending.The insignificant contribution of bank lending to GDP is attributed to the fact that banks are not highly interested in lending to the production sector of the economy due to the high level of risk.However,the primary empirical evidence reveals that bank lending doesn’t cause economic growth,but economic growth causes bank lending.展开更多
The escalation in dollar rates and the price instability in the Nigerian economy went through some significant structural and institutional changes such as the liberalization of the external trade, the elimination of ...The escalation in dollar rates and the price instability in the Nigerian economy went through some significant structural and institutional changes such as the liberalization of the external trade, the elimination of price and interest rate controls, and the adoption of a managed float exchange rate system as well as the changes in monetary policy including innovations in the banking sector. Hence, the study examines the impact of financial development on money demand in Nigeria by means of <span style="font-family:Verdana;">ARDL</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> approach. It examined the quarterly returns of M2, </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">exchange</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> rate (EXR), inflation rate (IFR), currency in credits to </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">private</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> sector (CPS) </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">and</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> circulation (CIC). The data span from 1991 to 2018. The study utilizes regression model techniques where the regression model’s residual is tested for Cointegration using Engle-Granger residual approach, the significan</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">ces</span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> of the variable’s co-movement are checked by pairwise Granger Causality tests and ARDL and VECM are estimated in </span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">order to account for the short run and </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">long run</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> relationship among the va</span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">riables. From the empirical results, Engle-Granger residuals and pairwise</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> Granger Causality tests confirm cointegration among variables. The ARDL and VECM confirm the </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">long run</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> relation between money demand (M2) and financial development variables</span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">:</span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> CPS and CIC. ARDL models (</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">short run</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> rela</span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">tionship) are estimated for </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">exchange</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> rate and inflation rate. Long</span></span></span><span style="font-family:;" "=""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">run</span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> (VECM) analysis has confirmed </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">significance</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> of financial development variables (CPS and CIC) with </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">positive</span> <span style="font-family:Verdana;">sign</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">;implies that </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">money</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> demand function is stable in </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">long</span></span><span style="font-family:;" "=""> </span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">run. The VECM </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">granger</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> causality results reveal that bidirectional causality exist</span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">s</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> between currency in circulation and money demand in both short and long run. Unidirectional causal relationship exists between credits to private sector and money demand in both short and long run. Hence, government should pay more attention on financial development and ensure a coordination of</span><span style="font-family:;" "=""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">both fiscal and monetary policy.</span>展开更多
Monetary policies, either actual or perceived, cause changes in monetary interest rates. These changes impact the economy through financial institutions, which react to changes in the monetary rates with changes in th...Monetary policies, either actual or perceived, cause changes in monetary interest rates. These changes impact the economy through financial institutions, which react to changes in the monetary rates with changes in their administered rates, on both deposits and lendings. The dynamics of administered bank interest rates in response to changes in money market rates is essential to examine the impact of monetary policies on the economy. Chong et al. (2006) proposed an error correction model to study such impact, using data previous to the recent financial crisis. In this paper we examine the validity of the model in the recent time period, characterized by very low monetary rates. The current state of close-to-zero monetary rates is of particular relevance, as it has never been studied before. Our main contribution is a novel, more parsimonious, model and a predictive performance assessment methodology, which allows comparing it with the error correction model.展开更多
Based on NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data, climate trend rate and other methods are used to quantitatively analyze the change trend of China's summer observed temperature in 1983—2012. Moreover, a dynamics-statist...Based on NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data, climate trend rate and other methods are used to quantitatively analyze the change trend of China's summer observed temperature in 1983—2012. Moreover, a dynamics-statistics-combined seasonal forecast method with optimal multi-factor portfolio is applied to analyze the impact of this trend on summer temperature forecast. The results show that: in the three decades, the summer temperature shows a clear upward trend under the condition of global warming, especially over South China, East China, Northeast China and Xinjiang Region, and the trend rate of national average summer temperature was 0.27℃ per decade. However, it is found that the current business model forecast(Coupled Global Climate Model) of National Climate Centre is unable to forecast summer warming trends in China, so that the post-processing forecast effect of dynamics-statistics-combined method is relatively poor. In this study, observed temperatures are processed first by removing linear fitting trend, and then adding it after forecast to offset the deficiency of model forecast indirectly. After test, ACC average value in the latest decade was 0.44 through dynamics-statistics-combined independent sample return forecast. The temporal correlation(TCC) between forecast and observed temperature was significantly improved compared with direct forecast results in most regions, and effectively improved the skill of the dynamics-statistics-combined forecast method in seasonal temperature forecast.展开更多
Intelligent machines are knowledge systems with unique knowledge structure and function.In this paper,we discuss issues including the characteristics and forms of machine knowledge,the relationship between knowledge a...Intelligent machines are knowledge systems with unique knowledge structure and function.In this paper,we discuss issues including the characteristics and forms of machine knowledge,the relationship between knowledge and human cognition,and the approach to acquire machine knowledge.These issues are of great significance to the development of artificial intelligence.展开更多
基金Supported by the Scientific Research Subject of Department of Education in Hunan Province(10C0556)
文摘By using error correction model, I conduct co-integration analysis on the research of the relationship between the per capita practical consumption and per capita practical disposable income of urban residents in Hunan Province from 1978 to 2009. The results show that there is a co-integration relationship between the per capita practical consumption and the practical per capita disposable income of urban residents, and based on these, the corresponding error correction model is established. Finally, corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward as follows: broaden the income channel of urban residents; create goods consuming environment; perfect socialist security system.
基金This study was co-supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2021YFF0603904)National Natural Science Foundation of China(U1733203)Safety Capacity Building Project of Civil Aviation Administration of China(TM2019-16-1/3).
文摘This study aims to address the deviation in downstream tasks caused by inaccurate recognition results when applying Automatic Speech Recognition(ASR)technology in the Air Traffic Control(ATC)field.This paper presents a novel cascaded model architecture,namely Conformer-CTC/Attention-T5(CCAT),to build a highly accurate and robust ATC speech recognition model.To tackle the challenges posed by noise and fast speech rate in ATC,the Conformer model is employed to extract robust and discriminative speech representations from raw waveforms.On the decoding side,the Attention mechanism is integrated to facilitate precise alignment between input features and output characters.The Text-To-Text Transfer Transformer(T5)language model is also introduced to handle particular pronunciations and code-mixing issues,providing more accurate and concise textual output for downstream tasks.To enhance the model’s robustness,transfer learning and data augmentation techniques are utilized in the training strategy.The model’s performance is optimized by performing hyperparameter tunings,such as adjusting the number of attention heads,encoder layers,and the weights of the loss function.The experimental results demonstrate the significant contributions of data augmentation,hyperparameter tuning,and error correction models to the overall model performance.On the Our ATC Corpus dataset,the proposed model achieves a Character Error Rate(CER)of 3.44%,representing a 3.64%improvement compared to the baseline model.Moreover,the effectiveness of the proposed model is validated on two publicly available datasets.On the AISHELL-1 dataset,the CCAT model achieves a CER of 3.42%,showcasing a 1.23%improvement over the baseline model.Similarly,on the LibriSpeech dataset,the CCAT model achieves a Word Error Rate(WER)of 5.27%,demonstrating a performance improvement of 7.67%compared to the baseline model.Additionally,this paper proposes an evaluation criterion for assessing the robustness of ATC speech recognition systems.In robustness evaluation experiments based on this criterion,the proposed model demonstrates a performance improvement of 22%compared to the baseline model.
文摘This study investigated the impact of China’s monetary policy on both the money market and stock markets,assuming that non-policy variables would not respond contemporaneously to changes in policy variables.Monetary policy adjustments are swiftly observed in money markets and gradually extend to the stock market.The study examined the effects of monetary policy shocks using three primary instruments:interest rate policy,reserve requirement ratio,and open market operations.Monthly data from 2007 to 2013 were analyzed using vector error correction(VEC)models.The findings suggest a likely presence of long-lasting and stable relationships among monetary policy,the money market,and stock markets.This research holds practical implications for Chinese policymakers,particularly in managing the challenges associated with fluctuation risks linked to high foreign exchange reserves,aiming to achieve autonomy in monetary policy and formulate effective monetary strategies to stimulate economic growth.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(No.52075131)。
文摘A whispering gallery mode resonator(WGMR)filter can narrow laser linewidth while significantly changing the output power characteristics of fiber laser system.It is found that traditional laser output power model is invalid.We report a correction model of a narrow linewidth fiber laser filtered with a WGMR to analyze its power.We believe that the loss of the laser system and the threshold gain increase caused by the WGMR filter lead to the predominate amplified spontaneous emission during the original laser period.According to that,we assume the correction coefficient is an exponential decay related to the Er-doped fiber length in the large loss situation,and we verify it experimentally.As a result,the correction model is valid for WGMR-filtered fiber laser.
基金Supported by the Fund for Heilongjiang Province Philosophy and Social Sciences Project (08E015)Social Sciences Fund of the Heilongjiang Provincial Education Department (11542014)Scientific Research Fund of Northeast Agricultural University
文摘Heilongjiang is a large agriculture province.Problems of agriculture,rural areas and farmers are urgent to be solved.The development of agriculture needs the support of agricultural credits,because finance is the center of agriculture economy.However,the low comparative advantage in agriculture and pursuit of the capital interests which aggravate the conflicts of supply and demand of agricultural funds.Lacking of fund is the main factor that constrains the development of agricultural economy.In order to analyze the economic effect of agricultural credits on agricultural economy,an error correction model was set up to research the relationship between them,which based on the least square methods.Through the study of the contribution from agricultural credits to total value of agricultural out-put,the empirical evidence for developing the rural financial vigorously was provided,in order to promote the agricultura leconomic development.
文摘This study investigates the degree of capital mobility in a panel of 16 Latin American and 4 Caribbean countries during 1960 to 2017 against the backdrop of the Feldstein-Horioka hypothesis by applying recent panel data techniques.This is the first study on capital mobility in Latin American and Caribbean countries to employ the recently developed panel data procedure of the dynamic common correlated effects modeling technique of Chudik and Pesaran(J Econ 188:393–420,2015)and the error-correction testing of Gengenbach,Urbain,and Westerlund(Panel error correction testing with global stochastic trends,2008,J Appl Econ 31:982–1004,2016).These approaches address the serious panel data econometric issues of crosssection dependence,slope heterogeneity,nonstationarity,and endogeneity in a multifactor error-structure framework.The empirical findings of this study reveal a low average(mean)savings–retention coefficient for the panel as a whole and for most individual countries,as well as indicating a cointegration relationship between saving and investment ratios.The results indicate that there is a relatively high degree of capital mobility in the Latin American and Caribbean countries in the short run,while the long-run solvency condition is maintained,which is due to reduced frictions in goods and services markets causing increase competition.Increased capital mobility in these countries can promote economic growth and hasten the process of globalization by creating a conducive economic environment for FDI in these countries.
基金supported by following programs: 1) NSFC-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers (Grant No. U1406404)The National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2014AA09A511)+2 种基金The Scientific and Technological Innovation Project of the Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Grant No. 2015ASKJ01)International Cooperation and Exchange of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 61361136001)Open Fund of Key Laboratory of Marine Spill Oil Identification and Damage Assessment Technology SOA (Grant No. 201508)
文摘Oil spill models can effectively simulate the trajectories and fate of oil slicks, which is an essential element in contingency planning and effective response strategies prepared for oil spill accidents. However, when applied to offshore areas such as the Bohai Sea, the trajectories and fate of oil slicks would be affected by time-varying factors in a regional scale, which are assumed to be constant in most of the present models. In fact, these factors in offshore regions show much more variation over time than in the deep sea, due to offshore bathymetric and climatic characteristics. In this paper, the challenge of parameterizing these offshore factors is tackled. The remote sensing data of the region are used to analyze the modification of wind-induced drift factors, and a well-suited solution is established in parameter correction mechanism for oil spill models. The novelty of the algorithm is the self-adaptive modification mechanism of the drift factors derived from the remote sensing data for the targeted sea region, in respect to empirical constants in the present models. Considering this situation, a new regional oil spill model(i4Oil Spill) for the Bohai Sea is developed, which can simulate oil transformation and fate processes by Eulerian-Lagrangian methodology. The forecasting accuracy of the proposed model is proven by the validation results in the comparison between model simulation and subsequent satellite observations on the Penglai 19-3 oil spill accident. The performance of the model parameter correction mechanism is evaluated by comparing with the real spilled oil position extracted from ASAR images.
文摘This study examines the spillover effects of U.S.monetary policy normalization on Nigeria 10-Year Treasury bond yield between 2011 and 2017,using the vector error correction model approach.Our results reveal that domestic factors,such as exchange rate and inflation,rather than the U.S.10-Year sovereign bond yield,are the key drivers of Nigeria 10-Year bond yield.Additionally,the spillover effect from the U.S.monetary policy was amplified by oil price shocks and changes in Nigeria’s monetary policy rates.Our counterfactual analysis confirms the findings.
文摘Banking is an essential sector of Palestine’s economy.More credits provided by banks are considered to have a positive impact on economic growth so that the overall objective of this study is to examine the impact of bank lending on economic growth in Palestine.The study employs the Augmented Dickey-Fuller to test for stationarity in the time series,The Johansen co-integration,Vector Autoregressive Model and Vector Error Correction Model are employed to identify the long-run and short-run dynamics among the variables,and Granger causality test in order to determine the direction of causality.The study finds that a long run relationship exists among the variables and insignificant short run relationship.Also,the study findings show that there is unidirectional causality and runs from GDP to bank lending.The insignificant contribution of bank lending to GDP is attributed to the fact that banks are not highly interested in lending to the production sector of the economy due to the high level of risk.However,the primary empirical evidence reveals that bank lending doesn’t cause economic growth,but economic growth causes bank lending.
文摘The escalation in dollar rates and the price instability in the Nigerian economy went through some significant structural and institutional changes such as the liberalization of the external trade, the elimination of price and interest rate controls, and the adoption of a managed float exchange rate system as well as the changes in monetary policy including innovations in the banking sector. Hence, the study examines the impact of financial development on money demand in Nigeria by means of <span style="font-family:Verdana;">ARDL</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> approach. It examined the quarterly returns of M2, </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">exchange</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> rate (EXR), inflation rate (IFR), currency in credits to </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">private</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> sector (CPS) </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">and</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> circulation (CIC). The data span from 1991 to 2018. The study utilizes regression model techniques where the regression model’s residual is tested for Cointegration using Engle-Granger residual approach, the significan</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">ces</span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> of the variable’s co-movement are checked by pairwise Granger Causality tests and ARDL and VECM are estimated in </span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">order to account for the short run and </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">long run</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> relationship among the va</span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">riables. From the empirical results, Engle-Granger residuals and pairwise</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> Granger Causality tests confirm cointegration among variables. The ARDL and VECM confirm the </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">long run</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> relation between money demand (M2) and financial development variables</span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">:</span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> CPS and CIC. ARDL models (</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">short run</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> rela</span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">tionship) are estimated for </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">exchange</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> rate and inflation rate. Long</span></span></span><span style="font-family:;" "=""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">run</span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> (VECM) analysis has confirmed </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">significance</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> of financial development variables (CPS and CIC) with </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">positive</span> <span style="font-family:Verdana;">sign</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">;implies that </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">money</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> demand function is stable in </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">long</span></span><span style="font-family:;" "=""> </span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">run. The VECM </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">granger</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> causality results reveal that bidirectional causality exist</span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">s</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> between currency in circulation and money demand in both short and long run. Unidirectional causal relationship exists between credits to private sector and money demand in both short and long run. Hence, government should pay more attention on financial development and ensure a coordination of</span><span style="font-family:;" "=""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">both fiscal and monetary policy.</span>
文摘Monetary policies, either actual or perceived, cause changes in monetary interest rates. These changes impact the economy through financial institutions, which react to changes in the monetary rates with changes in their administered rates, on both deposits and lendings. The dynamics of administered bank interest rates in response to changes in money market rates is essential to examine the impact of monetary policies on the economy. Chong et al. (2006) proposed an error correction model to study such impact, using data previous to the recent financial crisis. In this paper we examine the validity of the model in the recent time period, characterized by very low monetary rates. The current state of close-to-zero monetary rates is of particular relevance, as it has never been studied before. Our main contribution is a novel, more parsimonious, model and a predictive performance assessment methodology, which allows comparing it with the error correction model.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(4157508241530531+1 种基金41605048)Special Scientific Research Project for Public Interest(GYHY201306021)
文摘Based on NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data, climate trend rate and other methods are used to quantitatively analyze the change trend of China's summer observed temperature in 1983—2012. Moreover, a dynamics-statistics-combined seasonal forecast method with optimal multi-factor portfolio is applied to analyze the impact of this trend on summer temperature forecast. The results show that: in the three decades, the summer temperature shows a clear upward trend under the condition of global warming, especially over South China, East China, Northeast China and Xinjiang Region, and the trend rate of national average summer temperature was 0.27℃ per decade. However, it is found that the current business model forecast(Coupled Global Climate Model) of National Climate Centre is unable to forecast summer warming trends in China, so that the post-processing forecast effect of dynamics-statistics-combined method is relatively poor. In this study, observed temperatures are processed first by removing linear fitting trend, and then adding it after forecast to offset the deficiency of model forecast indirectly. After test, ACC average value in the latest decade was 0.44 through dynamics-statistics-combined independent sample return forecast. The temporal correlation(TCC) between forecast and observed temperature was significantly improved compared with direct forecast results in most regions, and effectively improved the skill of the dynamics-statistics-combined forecast method in seasonal temperature forecast.
文摘Intelligent machines are knowledge systems with unique knowledge structure and function.In this paper,we discuss issues including the characteristics and forms of machine knowledge,the relationship between knowledge and human cognition,and the approach to acquire machine knowledge.These issues are of great significance to the development of artificial intelligence.
