Given the great strides that China＇s education sector has made in recent decades, it can be expected that the overall workforce quality of exiting China＇s labor market in coming one or two decades will be relatively...Given the great strides that China＇s education sector has made in recent decades, it can be expected that the overall workforce quality of exiting China＇s labor market in coming one or two decades will be relatively low, while the overall quality of workforce newly entering into China＇s labor market will be high. As the new, bettereducated generation takes over, China＇s workforce quality will be vastly improved. This in turn will promote economic growth. We refer to economic growth arising from improved workforce quality as qualitative demographic dividend. Using the computable general equilibrium （CGE） model, this paper investigates the relationship between workforce quality improvements and economic growth. According to the model＇s results, an improvement in workforce quality will raise the economic growth rate by about two percentage points per annum between 2016 and 2020 and by 10 percentage points cumulatively by 2020. In other words, GDP will be 1.1 times the level of baseline GDP by 2020 due to the improved education levels. Given different production functions across sectors, the improvement of workforce quality will affect different sectors in different ways. On the whole, the improvement of workforce quality is more favorable to the development of capital-intensive sectors and sectors with rapid technology progress. According to this paper, considering the improvement of workforce quality, we cannot conclude that China＇s potential economic growth rate has already begun to decline. Despite diminishing conventional quantitative demographic dividends, China ＂s qualitative demographic dividends will keep rising. Qualitative demographic dividends will further push forward China＇s industrial restructuring and the strategic transition of industrial competitiveness from quantitative to qualitative and from an extensive to an intensive pattern of development.展开更多
[Objective] The aim was to analyze the phenomenon of employment diffi- culty and labor shortage, and to reveal the influencing factors of employment difli- culty and labor shortage. [Method] On the basis of the econom...[Objective] The aim was to analyze the phenomenon of employment diffi- culty and labor shortage, and to reveal the influencing factors of employment difli- culty and labor shortage. [Method] On the basis of the economic principle of popu- lation dividend, the use of human resources and natural resource constraints The IS-LM model describes these two states. [Results] The resource constraints have a ＂squeeze＂ effect on the demographic dividend, and employment pressure is shown in terms of the population opportunity window; the labor market segmentation, the ir- rational industrial structure, the backward curriculum and employment concept are the main factors affecting employment and labor shortage. [Conclusion] The way to solve this dilemma must be removed from the division of labor market, the adjust- ment of industrial structure, the setting of university specialty, the change of em- ployment concept of university graduates as well as the improvement of the quality of labor.展开更多
Due to diminishing demographic dividend characterized by a falling workingage population and rising dependency ratio, China's long-term potential growth rates will keep declining, likely to be a mere 6.6% during t...Due to diminishing demographic dividend characterized by a falling workingage population and rising dependency ratio, China's long-term potential growth rates will keep declining, likely to be a mere 6.6% during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period(2016-2020). China's economic growth sustainability hinges upon its transition from the previous dependence on demographic dividend to the future reform dividend. In the growth accounting equation, we have simulated various reform initiatives and arrived at the following findings. First, although both the labor participation rate and TFP can increase China's potential growth rate, the former will only achieve a short-term growth effect, which will diminish in the long run. By contrast, the growth effect of TFP demonstrates the tendency of continuous increase. This further indicates that China's economic growth will increasingly rely on TFP improvement instead of traditional factor input. Second, different from the diminishing growth effect of enrolment rate, training may play a pivotal role in human capital development to significantly enhance potential growth rates. Third, if all reform initiatives can achieve their expected effects, integrated reform dividends may reach one or two percentage points of China's potential growth rate.展开更多
THE history of all developed economies and even the emerging ones have been their abilities to harness human resource into capital and use its diverse multiplier effects to create value chains spanning all other resou...THE history of all developed economies and even the emerging ones have been their abilities to harness human resource into capital and use its diverse multiplier effects to create value chains spanning all other resources categories. In addition, this process unleashes outcomes that include a rise in national economic aggregates and more importantly, improved quality of living standards for citizens.展开更多
This paper sheds light on the nexus of age compositional shifts and the generation of the first demographic dividend over the past several decades in China, and also discusses how this dividend could be extended. We f...This paper sheds light on the nexus of age compositional shifts and the generation of the first demographic dividend over the past several decades in China, and also discusses how this dividend could be extended. We first estimate how long China ＇s first demographic dividend will last and then compare the computed results for China with those for other selected Asian countries in order to place the Chinese case in a wider perspective. Furthermore, in view of the possibility that China ＇s first demographic dividend will turn negative in 2014, we offer insight into how and to what extent China ＂s labor market needs to adjust and how much labor income must increase for the first demographic dividend to remain positive up to year 2050. For this goal to be achieved, the labor income age profile needs to be shifted to a considerable extent. We conduct an exercise in which the 2007peak labor income age of 32 years is shifted to 40years. In the case of the elderly, this implies an annual labor income growth of 3.1 percent over the period of 39 years. Throughout this paper, we draw on a variety of computed results derived from the Chinese component of the global ＂National Transfer Accounts＂ project.展开更多
As China’s demographic transition enters a new stage,the“first demographic dividend”-the economic advantage resulting from demographic changes in recent decades-is bound to disappear permanently.China s future deve...As China’s demographic transition enters a new stage,the“first demographic dividend”-the economic advantage resulting from demographic changes in recent decades-is bound to disappear permanently.China s future development will be characterized by an aging population.The“second demographic dividend”refers to new sources of economic growth derived from this later population change.This paper reveals major constraints caused by aging in China,which is characterized by a tendency to grow old before becoming rich.As the population ages,human capital improvement slows,labor force participation declines and consumption power reduces.This paper suggests taking advantage of a population“echo effect”to improve human capital at all ages,to enhance workers’ability to benefit from employment,and to improve the labor participation rate of the elderly,which in turn would increase the income and social security of the aged.These measures are conducive tofuture economic growth and to the cultivation of the second demographic dividend.展开更多
Is China able to maintain fast growth after three decades？ This paper tries to answer this question by： 1） arguing that factors contributed to sustained long-run growth at supply side;2） focusing on contributions ...Is China able to maintain fast growth after three decades？ This paper tries to answer this question by： 1） arguing that factors contributed to sustained long-run growth at supply side;2） focusing on contributions of demographic dividend especially that of rural-urban migration;and 3） analyzing rural demographic change with information collected through village-wide household survey.Policy alternatives to realize remaining potential demographic dividend are proposed based on the analysis of changing rural demographic structure.展开更多
Different from other methodologies for the forecasting of China＇s economic growth rate, this paper forecast of future potential growth rates from the end of China＇s demographic dividends, and then identified it as a...Different from other methodologies for the forecasting of China＇s economic growth rate, this paper forecast of future potential growth rates from the end of China＇s demographic dividends, and then identified it as a growth target. Official promulgation of non-binding targets will guide social expectation, assist in government policy-making, boost confidence in consumers, and provide guidance for producers and investors. Based on our estimation results, we suggest that during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, a GDP growth target between 6. 5% and 7% would be appropriate.展开更多
China＇s extraordinary performance of economic growth is not without source. It has simultaneously resulted from the profound reform and wide opening-up as a sufficient condition and from demographic dividend as a nec...China＇s extraordinary performance of economic growth is not without source. It has simultaneously resulted from the profound reform and wide opening-up as a sufficient condition and from demographic dividend as a necessary condition. The characteristic of consolidating reform, opening-up, growth, and sharing in China makes its experience an inclusive development. This paper looks back at China＇s reform process to reveal how growth potentials have been translated into actual growth through factors accumulation and resources reallocation. It then points out that as the stage of dual economy development has altered and as a result demographic dividend has disappeared, the sustainable growth of the Chinese economy is facing big challenges. This paper concludes by proposing policy suggestions for deepening reform.展开更多
Contraception is a set of procedures that aim to achieve temporary infertility in a woman without her ability to conceive being engaged in the future. It plays an essential role in the health of women and children, th...Contraception is a set of procedures that aim to achieve temporary infertility in a woman without her ability to conceive being engaged in the future. It plays an essential role in the health of women and children, the psychological well-being of husbands and allows, among other things, savings for the family. The objective was to study the perceptions and social representations of husbands on family planning. A mixed method was used with a qualitative dominance, carried out in the health district of Pout. The result showed that the perceptions and representations of husbands influence this practice family planning. Even if they have positive attitudes and a good level of knowledge about contraceptive methods, their involvement in FP practices remains low with gaps to be filled. Direct or intermediate variables such as the social, cultural, economic and religious aspects are pitfalls. Indeed, the commitment of men and the consideration of their social attributes are variables to be integrated into the process of information and awareness on family planning;this is crucial in achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3 (Good Health and Well-being), including its target 7 focused on sexual and proactive health: a second best move towards the demographic dividend.展开更多
The demographic dividend, that is, the growth of the working age population aged 16years relative to younger and older age dependents, has often been cited as a crucial component of the accelerated economic growth exp...The demographic dividend, that is, the growth of the working age population aged 16years relative to younger and older age dependents, has often been cited as a crucial component of the accelerated economic growth experienced by disparate countries and regions at different points in time. Generally less emphasized are the ramifications of this proeess when it occurs in reverse; that is, when the relative size of the working age population begins to shrink. Related to this is the more subtle effect of changes to the age structure of the overall working age population, which can have compounding or offsetting effects in relation to the demographic dividend noted above. This paper explores how these age-related phenomena were instrumental to both the Great Depression and the Great Recession of 2008. We explore how the generational eomposition of economic actors and the aging of the baby-boom worker may have played a role in provoking these remarkable recessionary periods. The reversal of the demographic dividend and the aging of the working age population are factors now contributing to the propagation of the global economic downturn, as witnessed in the example of Japan over the past half-century. This paper applies the lessons of the Great Depression, the Great Recession and Japan to offer a forward-looking analysis of the Chinese economy. China is on the precipiee of a significant demographic shift whose implications for economic growth are explored.展开更多
Demographic transition has occurred more rapidly in China than in most developed countries. As the population ages, the growth rate of the working age population has started to decline and the absolute quantity of the...Demographic transition has occurred more rapidly in China than in most developed countries. As the population ages, the growth rate of the working age population has started to decline and the absolute quantity of the working age population will begin to shrink after 2015, which will inevitably result in structural labor shortage. Under the circumstance where comparative advantage is still embodied in its labor-intensive commodities, timely and sufficient supply of a skilled labor force is vital for China to sustain fast economic growth.展开更多
Population aging will become the norm in the Chinese society. Its challenge derives mainly from the failure of the existing socio-economic system to cope with the aging process. The intervention of public policy is th...Population aging will become the norm in the Chinese society. Its challenge derives mainly from the failure of the existing socio-economic system to cope with the aging process. The intervention of public policy is therefore inevitable. This paper argues that in order to comprehensively deal with the aging problem, it is not sufficient to merely readjust population policies, policy measures focusing on the aged or policies for one or another sector. Instead, we need to reconstruct the current public policy system from the perspective of social integration and a long-term development strategy. During the reconstruction process, efforts should be made not only to coordinate the population system with other social systems, but also to coordinate short-term goals with medium and longterm strategies. Accordingly, an authoritative permanent government coordinating agency should be established and, taking into account China＇s national conditions, should redefine the social role of senior citizens, solve practical problems related to support for the aged and support the sustainable development of an aging society.展开更多
China＇s reform, opening up and resultant economic growth in the past 40 years have led to the accumulation of an immense array of experiences, which economists are obligated to look into, analyze and theorize upon. I...China＇s reform, opening up and resultant economic growth in the past 40 years have led to the accumulation of an immense array of experiences, which economists are obligated to look into, analyze and theorize upon. In fact, the rich literature in this area has positively assessed and documented China＇s successful experiences. However, theories that were established in Western countries have been applied as doctrine to judge China＇s experiences. By adopting an analytical framework unifying historical logic and theoretical logic, the purpose of this paper is to reveal the unique Chinese experience and its relevance to the general laws of economic development. Based on the experiences of and in reference to research findings about China, this paper chronicles the process of reform, opening up and economic growth, and analyzes the nexus between them. The study demystifies how the incentive mechanism, the factor accumulation and allocation system, market development, and macro policy environment reforms have spurred China＇s economic growth, structural changes and the increase in productivity. The changes in development stage are examined and policy implications for further reform are discussed.展开更多
Nearly half of the Belt and Road countries are still in the opportunity window of demographic dividend.Based on the experiences of China and many other countries,the improvement of health and education level is necess...Nearly half of the Belt and Road countries are still in the opportunity window of demographic dividend.Based on the experiences of China and many other countries,the improvement of health and education level is necessary to transform the economic potential of the age structure into a demographic dividend.Therefore,in order to develop demographic dividend of the Belt and Road,it is important to increase the human capital investment in these countries.On the other hand,there are some problems in education resources allocations in China,especially in tertiary education resources,resulting in inefficient operation of educational resources and is unconducive to the promotion of tertiary education levels.Therefore,the governments in the Belt and Road region would think about policies and strategies to promote the redistribution of westward movement of tertiary education resources.展开更多
文摘Given the great strides that China＇s education sector has made in recent decades, it can be expected that the overall workforce quality of exiting China＇s labor market in coming one or two decades will be relatively low, while the overall quality of workforce newly entering into China＇s labor market will be high. As the new, bettereducated generation takes over, China＇s workforce quality will be vastly improved. This in turn will promote economic growth. We refer to economic growth arising from improved workforce quality as qualitative demographic dividend. Using the computable general equilibrium （CGE） model, this paper investigates the relationship between workforce quality improvements and economic growth. According to the model＇s results, an improvement in workforce quality will raise the economic growth rate by about two percentage points per annum between 2016 and 2020 and by 10 percentage points cumulatively by 2020. In other words, GDP will be 1.1 times the level of baseline GDP by 2020 due to the improved education levels. Given different production functions across sectors, the improvement of workforce quality will affect different sectors in different ways. On the whole, the improvement of workforce quality is more favorable to the development of capital-intensive sectors and sectors with rapid technology progress. According to this paper, considering the improvement of workforce quality, we cannot conclude that China＇s potential economic growth rate has already begun to decline. Despite diminishing conventional quantitative demographic dividends, China ＂s qualitative demographic dividends will keep rising. Qualitative demographic dividends will further push forward China＇s industrial restructuring and the strategic transition of industrial competitiveness from quantitative to qualitative and from an extensive to an intensive pattern of development.
基金Supported by the National Social Science Fund of China(13XSH017)~~
文摘[Objective] The aim was to analyze the phenomenon of employment diffi- culty and labor shortage, and to reveal the influencing factors of employment difli- culty and labor shortage. [Method] On the basis of the economic principle of popu- lation dividend, the use of human resources and natural resource constraints The IS-LM model describes these two states. [Results] The resource constraints have a ＂squeeze＂ effect on the demographic dividend, and employment pressure is shown in terms of the population opportunity window; the labor market segmentation, the ir- rational industrial structure, the backward curriculum and employment concept are the main factors affecting employment and labor shortage. [Conclusion] The way to solve this dilemma must be removed from the division of labor market, the adjust- ment of industrial structure, the setting of university specialty, the change of em- ployment concept of university graduates as well as the improvement of the quality of labor.
基金the National Social Sciences Foundation Program "A Study on the Effects of Changing Demographic Structure on China's Economic Deceleration and Countermeasures"
文摘Due to diminishing demographic dividend characterized by a falling workingage population and rising dependency ratio, China's long-term potential growth rates will keep declining, likely to be a mere 6.6% during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period(2016-2020). China's economic growth sustainability hinges upon its transition from the previous dependence on demographic dividend to the future reform dividend. In the growth accounting equation, we have simulated various reform initiatives and arrived at the following findings. First, although both the labor participation rate and TFP can increase China's potential growth rate, the former will only achieve a short-term growth effect, which will diminish in the long run. By contrast, the growth effect of TFP demonstrates the tendency of continuous increase. This further indicates that China's economic growth will increasingly rely on TFP improvement instead of traditional factor input. Second, different from the diminishing growth effect of enrolment rate, training may play a pivotal role in human capital development to significantly enhance potential growth rates. Third, if all reform initiatives can achieve their expected effects, integrated reform dividends may reach one or two percentage points of China's potential growth rate.
文摘THE history of all developed economies and even the emerging ones have been their abilities to harness human resource into capital and use its diverse multiplier effects to create value chains spanning all other resources categories. In addition, this process unleashes outcomes that include a rise in national economic aggregates and more importantly, improved quality of living standards for citizens.
文摘This paper sheds light on the nexus of age compositional shifts and the generation of the first demographic dividend over the past several decades in China, and also discusses how this dividend could be extended. We first estimate how long China ＇s first demographic dividend will last and then compare the computed results for China with those for other selected Asian countries in order to place the Chinese case in a wider perspective. Furthermore, in view of the possibility that China ＇s first demographic dividend will turn negative in 2014, we offer insight into how and to what extent China ＂s labor market needs to adjust and how much labor income must increase for the first demographic dividend to remain positive up to year 2050. For this goal to be achieved, the labor income age profile needs to be shifted to a considerable extent. We conduct an exercise in which the 2007peak labor income age of 32 years is shifted to 40years. In the case of the elderly, this implies an annual labor income growth of 3.1 percent over the period of 39 years. Throughout this paper, we draw on a variety of computed results derived from the Chinese component of the global ＂National Transfer Accounts＂ project.
文摘As China’s demographic transition enters a new stage,the“first demographic dividend”-the economic advantage resulting from demographic changes in recent decades-is bound to disappear permanently.China s future development will be characterized by an aging population.The“second demographic dividend”refers to new sources of economic growth derived from this later population change.This paper reveals major constraints caused by aging in China,which is characterized by a tendency to grow old before becoming rich.As the population ages,human capital improvement slows,labor force participation declines and consumption power reduces.This paper suggests taking advantage of a population“echo effect”to improve human capital at all ages,to enhance workers’ability to benefit from employment,and to improve the labor participation rate of the elderly,which in turn would increase the income and social security of the aged.These measures are conducive tofuture economic growth and to the cultivation of the second demographic dividend.
文摘Is China able to maintain fast growth after three decades？ This paper tries to answer this question by： 1） arguing that factors contributed to sustained long-run growth at supply side;2） focusing on contributions of demographic dividend especially that of rural-urban migration;and 3） analyzing rural demographic change with information collected through village-wide household survey.Policy alternatives to realize remaining potential demographic dividend are proposed based on the analysis of changing rural demographic structure.
文摘Different from other methodologies for the forecasting of China＇s economic growth rate, this paper forecast of future potential growth rates from the end of China＇s demographic dividends, and then identified it as a growth target. Official promulgation of non-binding targets will guide social expectation, assist in government policy-making, boost confidence in consumers, and provide guidance for producers and investors. Based on our estimation results, we suggest that during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, a GDP growth target between 6. 5% and 7% would be appropriate.
文摘China＇s extraordinary performance of economic growth is not without source. It has simultaneously resulted from the profound reform and wide opening-up as a sufficient condition and from demographic dividend as a necessary condition. The characteristic of consolidating reform, opening-up, growth, and sharing in China makes its experience an inclusive development. This paper looks back at China＇s reform process to reveal how growth potentials have been translated into actual growth through factors accumulation and resources reallocation. It then points out that as the stage of dual economy development has altered and as a result demographic dividend has disappeared, the sustainable growth of the Chinese economy is facing big challenges. This paper concludes by proposing policy suggestions for deepening reform.
文摘Contraception is a set of procedures that aim to achieve temporary infertility in a woman without her ability to conceive being engaged in the future. It plays an essential role in the health of women and children, the psychological well-being of husbands and allows, among other things, savings for the family. The objective was to study the perceptions and social representations of husbands on family planning. A mixed method was used with a qualitative dominance, carried out in the health district of Pout. The result showed that the perceptions and representations of husbands influence this practice family planning. Even if they have positive attitudes and a good level of knowledge about contraceptive methods, their involvement in FP practices remains low with gaps to be filled. Direct or intermediate variables such as the social, cultural, economic and religious aspects are pitfalls. Indeed, the commitment of men and the consideration of their social attributes are variables to be integrated into the process of information and awareness on family planning;this is crucial in achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3 (Good Health and Well-being), including its target 7 focused on sexual and proactive health: a second best move towards the demographic dividend.
文摘The demographic dividend, that is, the growth of the working age population aged 16years relative to younger and older age dependents, has often been cited as a crucial component of the accelerated economic growth experienced by disparate countries and regions at different points in time. Generally less emphasized are the ramifications of this proeess when it occurs in reverse; that is, when the relative size of the working age population begins to shrink. Related to this is the more subtle effect of changes to the age structure of the overall working age population, which can have compounding or offsetting effects in relation to the demographic dividend noted above. This paper explores how these age-related phenomena were instrumental to both the Great Depression and the Great Recession of 2008. We explore how the generational eomposition of economic actors and the aging of the baby-boom worker may have played a role in provoking these remarkable recessionary periods. The reversal of the demographic dividend and the aging of the working age population are factors now contributing to the propagation of the global economic downturn, as witnessed in the example of Japan over the past half-century. This paper applies the lessons of the Great Depression, the Great Recession and Japan to offer a forward-looking analysis of the Chinese economy. China is on the precipiee of a significant demographic shift whose implications for economic growth are explored.
文摘Demographic transition has occurred more rapidly in China than in most developed countries. As the population ages, the growth rate of the working age population has started to decline and the absolute quantity of the working age population will begin to shrink after 2015, which will inevitably result in structural labor shortage. Under the circumstance where comparative advantage is still embodied in its labor-intensive commodities, timely and sufficient supply of a skilled labor force is vital for China to sustain fast economic growth.
基金This paper is a phase result of the youth project of the National Social Science Foundation, ＂Research on the Functional Mechanism of Development-oriented Family Policy in China＇s Aged Care System＂ （11CRK008） and the 985 Project of Fudan University Special Fund, ＂Research on Pattern Innovation and Policy Adjustment in China＇s Population Administration＂ （07FCZD033）.
文摘Population aging will become the norm in the Chinese society. Its challenge derives mainly from the failure of the existing socio-economic system to cope with the aging process. The intervention of public policy is therefore inevitable. This paper argues that in order to comprehensively deal with the aging problem, it is not sufficient to merely readjust population policies, policy measures focusing on the aged or policies for one or another sector. Instead, we need to reconstruct the current public policy system from the perspective of social integration and a long-term development strategy. During the reconstruction process, efforts should be made not only to coordinate the population system with other social systems, but also to coordinate short-term goals with medium and longterm strategies. Accordingly, an authoritative permanent government coordinating agency should be established and, taking into account China＇s national conditions, should redefine the social role of senior citizens, solve practical problems related to support for the aged and support the sustainable development of an aging society.
文摘China＇s reform, opening up and resultant economic growth in the past 40 years have led to the accumulation of an immense array of experiences, which economists are obligated to look into, analyze and theorize upon. In fact, the rich literature in this area has positively assessed and documented China＇s successful experiences. However, theories that were established in Western countries have been applied as doctrine to judge China＇s experiences. By adopting an analytical framework unifying historical logic and theoretical logic, the purpose of this paper is to reveal the unique Chinese experience and its relevance to the general laws of economic development. Based on the experiences of and in reference to research findings about China, this paper chronicles the process of reform, opening up and economic growth, and analyzes the nexus between them. The study demystifies how the incentive mechanism, the factor accumulation and allocation system, market development, and macro policy environment reforms have spurred China＇s economic growth, structural changes and the increase in productivity. The changes in development stage are examined and policy implications for further reform are discussed.
文摘Nearly half of the Belt and Road countries are still in the opportunity window of demographic dividend.Based on the experiences of China and many other countries,the improvement of health and education level is necessary to transform the economic potential of the age structure into a demographic dividend.Therefore,in order to develop demographic dividend of the Belt and Road,it is important to increase the human capital investment in these countries.On the other hand,there are some problems in education resources allocations in China,especially in tertiary education resources,resulting in inefficient operation of educational resources and is unconducive to the promotion of tertiary education levels.Therefore,the governments in the Belt and Road region would think about policies and strategies to promote the redistribution of westward movement of tertiary education resources.
