In coping with the global financial crisis, all levels of the Chinese government and foreign trade firms have not only created new practices but have also changed their goal from transforming the growth pattern of for...In coping with the global financial crisis, all levels of the Chinese government and foreign trade firms have not only created new practices but have also changed their goal from transforming the growth pattern of foreign trade to transforming the development pattern of joreign trade. China＇s experience shows that economic instruments such as Net Barter Terms of Trade （NBTT） and the smile curve theory have limitations when it comes to interpreting foreign trade. If used improperly, scientific theories often lead to.fallacies. Transjbrming the development pattern of China＇s .foreign trade requires the following changes： national income distribution, foreign trade competition, market exploration, and resource utilization. We advise that competent authorities create a reasonable and operational system of assessment indicators.展开更多
Over the past 20 years, China has made spectacular achievements in economic growth as well as in thetransformation of economic growth pattern. Industrial structure is being updated, and technology is playing a more an...Over the past 20 years, China has made spectacular achievements in economic growth as well as in thetransformation of economic growth pattern. Industrial structure is being updated, and technology is playing a more andmore important role in economic development. The energy and resource consumption in many industries and enterprisesare reducing. However, we should realize that there are still many problems in changing the economic growth pattern,such as high input, high consumption, high discharge, inharmony, recycling difficulty, and low efficiency, which havegreatly impaired and restrict Chinese economic development. Therefore, the fundamental change of the economic growthpattern is inevitable. Based on the analysis on the status quo and the exploit of resources, this paper suggests that thetransformation from unsustainable to sustainable growth is the only choice in changing the economic growth pattern. Inaddition, the transformation should not completely rely on the fundamental effects of market mechanism. We should makefull use of the power of governments to speed up the transformation of economic system.展开更多
Using available data and necessary estimations, this paper provides a tentative picture of the balance sheet of China＇s sovereign account between 2000 and 2010. The main findings indicate that the net worth of China...Using available data and necessary estimations, this paper provides a tentative picture of the balance sheet of China＇s sovereign account between 2000 and 2010. The main findings indicate that the net worth of China＇s sovereign assets had been positive and increasing during the period under review. This implies that the Chinese government has sufficient sovereign assets to cover its sovereign liabilities, therefore the likelihood of a sovereign debt crisis in China is extremely low in the near term. Moreover, although China＇s leverage ratio （total liabilities/GDP） is far lower compared to advanced economies, it seems higher than that of other major emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia, and India （BRIC）. In fact, the leverage ratio has been increasing rapidly over recent years and requires special attention. In particular, according to sector-specific analysis, high corporate liability ratios （percentage to GDP） constitute a major concern of China＇s national balance sheet. In 2010, this liability ratio exceeded l OO percent, which exceeds the 90 percent level observed in OECD countries. Lastly, this paper concludes that a sustainable economic growth and structural transformation of growth model are the fundamental means to taming China＇s balance sheet risks.展开更多
The driving force for China's industrial growth has shifted from the synergy of efficiency and factor input to the dominance of capital input alone.With the boundary of 2003,the contribution of capital to the grow...The driving force for China's industrial growth has shifted from the synergy of efficiency and factor input to the dominance of capital input alone.With the boundary of 2003,the contribution of capital to the growth of China's industrial economy increased from the annual average of 34.07%to 89.28%while the contribution of TFP dived from the annual average of 47.34%to-4.08%.Meanwhile,TFP growth rates dropped from the annual average of 4.6%to-0.05%and marginal capital output ratio went down from0.61 in 2002 to 0.28 in 2012.This indicates that the investment-driven pattern of China's industrial growth has been confronted with severe inefficiency.Further research suggests that the tendency of worsening industrial growth efficiency already became significant prior to the global financial crisis of 2008 and the eruption of the global financial crisis is not the fundamental reason for the worsening of efficiency and only exacerbated its tendency.The current government-led and investment-driven pattern of industrial growth is the root cause of such efficiency deterioration.Therefore,in order to achieve the transition towards innovation- and efficiency-driven growth pattern,the key is to make an appropriate distinction in the relationship between market and government,i.e.,the government must create a perfect institutional system where the market plays a decisive role and take proactive initiative to promote technology innovation and transfer on the basis of respecting market mechanism and the intent of market entities.展开更多
文摘In coping with the global financial crisis, all levels of the Chinese government and foreign trade firms have not only created new practices but have also changed their goal from transforming the growth pattern of foreign trade to transforming the development pattern of joreign trade. China＇s experience shows that economic instruments such as Net Barter Terms of Trade （NBTT） and the smile curve theory have limitations when it comes to interpreting foreign trade. If used improperly, scientific theories often lead to.fallacies. Transjbrming the development pattern of China＇s .foreign trade requires the following changes： national income distribution, foreign trade competition, market exploration, and resource utilization. We advise that competent authorities create a reasonable and operational system of assessment indicators.
文摘Over the past 20 years, China has made spectacular achievements in economic growth as well as in thetransformation of economic growth pattern. Industrial structure is being updated, and technology is playing a more andmore important role in economic development. The energy and resource consumption in many industries and enterprisesare reducing. However, we should realize that there are still many problems in changing the economic growth pattern,such as high input, high consumption, high discharge, inharmony, recycling difficulty, and low efficiency, which havegreatly impaired and restrict Chinese economic development. Therefore, the fundamental change of the economic growthpattern is inevitable. Based on the analysis on the status quo and the exploit of resources, this paper suggests that thetransformation from unsustainable to sustainable growth is the only choice in changing the economic growth pattern. Inaddition, the transformation should not completely rely on the fundamental effects of market mechanism. We should makefull use of the power of governments to speed up the transformation of economic system.
文摘Using available data and necessary estimations, this paper provides a tentative picture of the balance sheet of China＇s sovereign account between 2000 and 2010. The main findings indicate that the net worth of China＇s sovereign assets had been positive and increasing during the period under review. This implies that the Chinese government has sufficient sovereign assets to cover its sovereign liabilities, therefore the likelihood of a sovereign debt crisis in China is extremely low in the near term. Moreover, although China＇s leverage ratio （total liabilities/GDP） is far lower compared to advanced economies, it seems higher than that of other major emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia, and India （BRIC）. In fact, the leverage ratio has been increasing rapidly over recent years and requires special attention. In particular, according to sector-specific analysis, high corporate liability ratios （percentage to GDP） constitute a major concern of China＇s national balance sheet. In 2010, this liability ratio exceeded l OO percent, which exceeds the 90 percent level observed in OECD countries. Lastly, this paper concludes that a sustainable economic growth and structural transformation of growth model are the fundamental means to taming China＇s balance sheet risks.
文摘The driving force for China's industrial growth has shifted from the synergy of efficiency and factor input to the dominance of capital input alone.With the boundary of 2003,the contribution of capital to the growth of China's industrial economy increased from the annual average of 34.07%to 89.28%while the contribution of TFP dived from the annual average of 47.34%to-4.08%.Meanwhile,TFP growth rates dropped from the annual average of 4.6%to-0.05%and marginal capital output ratio went down from0.61 in 2002 to 0.28 in 2012.This indicates that the investment-driven pattern of China's industrial growth has been confronted with severe inefficiency.Further research suggests that the tendency of worsening industrial growth efficiency already became significant prior to the global financial crisis of 2008 and the eruption of the global financial crisis is not the fundamental reason for the worsening of efficiency and only exacerbated its tendency.The current government-led and investment-driven pattern of industrial growth is the root cause of such efficiency deterioration.Therefore,in order to achieve the transition towards innovation- and efficiency-driven growth pattern,the key is to make an appropriate distinction in the relationship between market and government,i.e.,the government must create a perfect institutional system where the market plays a decisive role and take proactive initiative to promote technology innovation and transfer on the basis of respecting market mechanism and the intent of market entities.
