Risk analysis of reservoir flood control operation mode with forecast information (FCOMFI) is an important basis for the design and implementation of FCOMFI. Most of current researches on this issue are incomplete as ...Risk analysis of reservoir flood control operation mode with forecast information (FCOMFI) is an important basis for the design and implementation of FCOMFI. Most of current researches on this issue are incomplete as they only consider flood forecast errors, but not many other uncertainties in reservoir routing. In order to obtain an integrated risk rate of FCOMFI, this paper analyzes four uncertainties, i.e. hydrological, hydraulic, stage-storage uncertainty and time-delay uncertainty, as well as their probability distributions. On the basis of this analysis, an integrated risk analysis model of FCOMFI for reservoirs and its lower reach is established involving the above-mentioned four uncertainties, and this model is solved by Monte Carlo simulation based on Latin hypercube sampling. The simulation results, with Baiguishan reservoir as the example, show that the integrated risk rates of FCOMFI are less than those of the flood control operation mode without forecast information. This article presents the highest limited water level that satisfies flood control safety requirements of the lower reach.展开更多
Flood control forecast operation mode is one of the main ways for determining the upper bound of dynamic control of flood limited water level during flood season. The floodwater utilization rate can be effectively inc...Flood control forecast operation mode is one of the main ways for determining the upper bound of dynamic control of flood limited water level during flood season. The floodwater utilization rate can be effectively increased by using flood forecast information and flood control forecast operation mode. In this paper, Dahuofang Reservoir is selected as a case study. At first, the distribution pattern and the bound of forecast error which is a key source of risk are analyzed. Then, based on the definition of flood risk, the risk of dynamic control of reservoir flood limited water level within different flood forecast error bounds is studied. The results show that, the dynamic control of reservoir flood limited water level with flood forecast information can increase the floodwater utilization rate without increasing flood control risk effectively and it is feasible in practice.展开更多
基金supported by "Eleventh Five-Year" Technology Support Program of China (Grant No. 2006BAB14B05)
文摘Risk analysis of reservoir flood control operation mode with forecast information (FCOMFI) is an important basis for the design and implementation of FCOMFI. Most of current researches on this issue are incomplete as they only consider flood forecast errors, but not many other uncertainties in reservoir routing. In order to obtain an integrated risk rate of FCOMFI, this paper analyzes four uncertainties, i.e. hydrological, hydraulic, stage-storage uncertainty and time-delay uncertainty, as well as their probability distributions. On the basis of this analysis, an integrated risk analysis model of FCOMFI for reservoirs and its lower reach is established involving the above-mentioned four uncertainties, and this model is solved by Monte Carlo simulation based on Latin hypercube sampling. The simulation results, with Baiguishan reservoir as the example, show that the integrated risk rates of FCOMFI are less than those of the flood control operation mode without forecast information. This article presents the highest limited water level that satisfies flood control safety requirements of the lower reach.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 51079015, 50979011)
文摘Flood control forecast operation mode is one of the main ways for determining the upper bound of dynamic control of flood limited water level during flood season. The floodwater utilization rate can be effectively increased by using flood forecast information and flood control forecast operation mode. In this paper, Dahuofang Reservoir is selected as a case study. At first, the distribution pattern and the bound of forecast error which is a key source of risk are analyzed. Then, based on the definition of flood risk, the risk of dynamic control of reservoir flood limited water level within different flood forecast error bounds is studied. The results show that, the dynamic control of reservoir flood limited water level with flood forecast information can increase the floodwater utilization rate without increasing flood control risk effectively and it is feasible in practice.
