Environmental conditions determining the timing of the lifetime maximum intensities of tropical cyclones(TCs)are investigated for the TCs over the western North Pacific during the period 2008-2017.The results show tha...Environmental conditions determining the timing of the lifetime maximum intensities of tropical cyclones(TCs)are investigated for the TCs over the western North Pacific during the period 2008-2017.The results show that the land controls the timings of the lifetime maximum intensities in 42% of the TCs over this basin,indicating that accurate track forecasts are beneficial for TC intensity forecasts.With respect to other TCs that are not affected by the land(i.e.,Ocean-TCs),the timings of their lifetime maximum intensities are determined by multiple oceanic factors.In particular,interactions between TCs and cold-core eddies occur in a large proportion(nearly 60%)of Ocean-TCs at or shortly after the times of their lifetime maximum intensities,especially in strong TCs(categories 4 and 5),suggesting that a consideration of the above interactions is necessary for improving TC intensity forecasting skills.In addition,unfavorable oceanic heat content conditions become common as the latitude increases over 25°N,influencing half of the Ocean-TCs.Strong vertical wind shear contributes detrimentally to the atmospheric environment in 17% of the TCs over this basin,especially in moderate and weak TCs.In contrast,neither the maximum potential intensity nor the humidity in the middle level of the atmosphere plays dominant roles when TCs turn from their peak intensities to weakening.展开更多
In this study, three high frequent occurrence regions of tropical cyclones(TCs), i.e., the northern South China Sea(the region S), the south Philippine Sea(the region P) and the region east of Taiwan Island(the region...In this study, three high frequent occurrence regions of tropical cyclones(TCs), i.e., the northern South China Sea(the region S), the south Philippine Sea(the region P) and the region east of Taiwan Island(the region E), are defined with frequency of TC's occurrence at each grid for a 45-year period(1965–2009), where the frequency of occurrence(FO) of TCs is triple the mean value of the whole western North Pacific. Over the region S, there are decreasing trends in the FO of TCs, the number of TCs' tracks going though this region and the number of TCs' genesis in this region. Over the region P, the FO and tracks demonstrate decadal variation with periods of 10–12 year, while over the region E, a significant 4–5 years' oscillation appears in both FO and tracks. It is demonstrated that the differences of TCs' variation in these three different regions are mainly caused by the variation of the Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH) at different time scales. The westward shift of WPSH is responsible for the northwesterly anomaly over the region S which inhibits westward TC movement into the region S. On the decadal timescale, the WPSH stretches northwestward because of the anomalous anticyclone over the northwestern part of the region P, and steers more TCs reaching the region P in the greater FO years of the region P. The retreating of the WPSH on the interannual time scale is the main reason for the FO's oscillation over the region E.展开更多
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFC1506402)National Natural Scientific Foundations of China(41575061,41775061)JSPS KAKENHI(JP18H01283)。
文摘Environmental conditions determining the timing of the lifetime maximum intensities of tropical cyclones(TCs)are investigated for the TCs over the western North Pacific during the period 2008-2017.The results show that the land controls the timings of the lifetime maximum intensities in 42% of the TCs over this basin,indicating that accurate track forecasts are beneficial for TC intensity forecasts.With respect to other TCs that are not affected by the land(i.e.,Ocean-TCs),the timings of their lifetime maximum intensities are determined by multiple oceanic factors.In particular,interactions between TCs and cold-core eddies occur in a large proportion(nearly 60%)of Ocean-TCs at or shortly after the times of their lifetime maximum intensities,especially in strong TCs(categories 4 and 5),suggesting that a consideration of the above interactions is necessary for improving TC intensity forecasting skills.In addition,unfavorable oceanic heat content conditions become common as the latitude increases over 25°N,influencing half of the Ocean-TCs.Strong vertical wind shear contributes detrimentally to the atmospheric environment in 17% of the TCs over this basin,especially in moderate and weak TCs.In contrast,neither the maximum potential intensity nor the humidity in the middle level of the atmosphere plays dominant roles when TCs turn from their peak intensities to weakening.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos. 41106018, 40975038)Program 973 (Nos. 2012CB417402, 2010CB950402, 2012CB955604)
文摘In this study, three high frequent occurrence regions of tropical cyclones(TCs), i.e., the northern South China Sea(the region S), the south Philippine Sea(the region P) and the region east of Taiwan Island(the region E), are defined with frequency of TC's occurrence at each grid for a 45-year period(1965–2009), where the frequency of occurrence(FO) of TCs is triple the mean value of the whole western North Pacific. Over the region S, there are decreasing trends in the FO of TCs, the number of TCs' tracks going though this region and the number of TCs' genesis in this region. Over the region P, the FO and tracks demonstrate decadal variation with periods of 10–12 year, while over the region E, a significant 4–5 years' oscillation appears in both FO and tracks. It is demonstrated that the differences of TCs' variation in these three different regions are mainly caused by the variation of the Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH) at different time scales. The westward shift of WPSH is responsible for the northwesterly anomaly over the region S which inhibits westward TC movement into the region S. On the decadal timescale, the WPSH stretches northwestward because of the anomalous anticyclone over the northwestern part of the region P, and steers more TCs reaching the region P in the greater FO years of the region P. The retreating of the WPSH on the interannual time scale is the main reason for the FO's oscillation over the region E.
