This study aims to examine whether life insurance futures can serve as a hedge against the COVID-19 pandemic and whether they have the characteristics of a safe haven under the impact of the health shocks of the COVID...This study aims to examine whether life insurance futures can serve as a hedge against the COVID-19 pandemic and whether they have the characteristics of a safe haven under the impact of the health shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic.We chose three life insurance stock futures in India and one in Taiwan as samples,including the market index of the two countries and the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases as sample variables.We used the growth rate of COVID-19 cases as the threshold variable,esti-mated the asymmetric threshold vector autoregression model,and found that insur-ance futures in the regime with a significant growth rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases can hedge against COVID-19 risks;therefore,insurance futures are a safe haven for the market.We further estimated the time-varying parameter vector autoregression model,and the impulse response results showed that insurance futures are a safe haven for COVID-19 pandemic risks.展开更多
An empirical test on long memory between price and trading volume of China metals futures market was given with MF-DCCA method. The empirical results show that long memory feature with a certain period exists in price...An empirical test on long memory between price and trading volume of China metals futures market was given with MF-DCCA method. The empirical results show that long memory feature with a certain period exists in price-volume correlation and a fittther proof was given by analyzing the source of multifractal feature. The empirical results suggest that it is of important practical significance to bring the fractal market theory and other nonlinear theory into the analysis and explanation of the behavior in metal futures market.展开更多
This paper analyzes the role of price discovery of Shanghai fuel oil futures market by using methods, such as unit root test, co-integration test, error correction model, Granger causality test, impulse-response fimct...This paper analyzes the role of price discovery of Shanghai fuel oil futures market by using methods, such as unit root test, co-integration test, error correction model, Granger causality test, impulse-response fimction and variance decomposition. The results showed that there exists a strong relationship between the spot price of Huangpu fuel oil spot market and the futures price of Shanghai fuel oil futures market. In addition, the Shanghai fuel oil futures market exhibits a highly effective price discovery function.展开更多
Similar to the method of continuum mechanics, the variation of the price of index futures is viewed to be continuous and regular. According to the characteristic of index futures, a basic equation of price of index fu...Similar to the method of continuum mechanics, the variation of the price of index futures is viewed to be continuous and regular. According to the characteristic of index futures, a basic equation of price of index futures was established. It is a differential equation, its solution shows that the relation between time and price forms a logarithmic circle. If the time is thought of as the probability of its corresponding price, then such a relation is perfectly coincided with the main assumption of the famous formula of option pricing, based on statistical theory, established by Black and Scholes winner of 1997 Nobel' prize on economy. In that formula, the probability of price of basic assets (they stand for index futures here) is assummed to be a logarithmic normal distribution. This agreement shows that the same result may be obtained by two analytic methods with different bases. However, the result, given by assumption by Black-Scholes, is derived from the solution of the differential equation.展开更多
The article presents the example of using relations between the price of wheat flour sold by the milling companies and the price of wheat futures listed on the FOREX market to protect the companies from bakery sector ...The article presents the example of using relations between the price of wheat flour sold by the milling companies and the price of wheat futures listed on the FOREX market to protect the companies from bakery sector against adverse price movements of raw material--wheat flour. The paper aims to present a method which can help to reduce risk of changes wheat flour price in the market by using wheat futures traded at FOREX market. For the analysis authors used weekly data since January 2006 until October 2010 about wheat flour price, wheat grain price, wheat futures prices, quotes a currency pair USD/PLN. Wheat flour prices came from studies of the Department of Agricultural Markets, Ministry of Agriculture, and Rural Development in Poland and represented the average sales price of wheat flour by milling companies. Information about wheat futures and quotes a currency pair USD/PLN reflects the actual trading of the FOREX market. Authors used statistical analysis tool for determining the strength of the relationship between the price of wheat flour and the wheat price on the domestic market and the wheat futures price. The correlation coefficient between them was 0.763. For further test authors used seven different options that use future contracts to reduce fluctuations in the flour price which can be used in bakery businesses. These results of research show that someone can effectively use wheat futures contracts listed on the FOREX market to protect the bakery business against adverse movements of wheat flour prices. Application in practice chosen strategies can allow bakery companies to achieve cost advantages by reducing the adverse changes in the wheat flour prices. Chosen strategies are more efficient if the prices of flour in the domestic market are rising. If prices drop down, the effectiveness of using wheat futures contracts was lower. It should be noted that wheat futures contracts are a good tool to achieve cost advantages in the bakery industry, especially when the wheat flour prices are increased on the domestic market.展开更多
This study investigates the relationship between trading volume and returns in SET50 index Futures market in the period from April 2006 to December 2008 using 653 observations. From previous studies, we include three ...This study investigates the relationship between trading volume and returns in SET50 index Futures market in the period from April 2006 to December 2008 using 653 observations. From previous studies, we include three methodologies namely the GARCH model, the Generalized Method of Moments （GMM） to estimate systems of equations and the Granger causality test to investigate the relationship more thoroughly. In addition, we introduce the lagged volume as a new explanatory variable in the GARCH model. Overall, the results show the significant contemporaneous and dynamic relationships between trading volume and returns volatility which support the sequential information arrival hypothesis and imply some degree of market inefficiency. The results from this study also show that past information of trading volume can be used to improve the prediction of price volatility. Therefore, regulators and traders could include past information of trading volume of SET50 index futures in tracking and monitoring the market volatility level and the investment risk in order to make a timely decision.展开更多
Based on the commodity property and finance property of gold in the international gold futures market,the influence factors of international gold futures price volatility are analyzed from the perspectives of supply a...Based on the commodity property and finance property of gold in the international gold futures market,the influence factors of international gold futures price volatility are analyzed from the perspectives of supply and demand factors,financial factors and speculation factors.The structural vector autoregression(SVAR)model is applied to investigating the direction and strength of the effects of influence factors on the international gold futures prices and the variance decomposition approach(VDA)is used to compare the contributions of these factors.The results show that the supply and demand factors still play a fundamental role in the international gold futures price volatility and the role of“China’s gold demand”is exaggerated.The financial factors and speculation factors have significant impacts on the international gold futures price volatility,which reflects that the financial property of gold becomes increasingly important.Governments and investors should pay close attention to the financial property of gold futures.展开更多
Following Bessembinder and Seguins,trading volume is separated into expected and unexpected components.Meanwhile,realized volatility is divided into continuous and discontinuous jump components.We make the empirical r...Following Bessembinder and Seguins,trading volume is separated into expected and unexpected components.Meanwhile,realized volatility is divided into continuous and discontinuous jump components.We make the empirical research to investigate the relationship between trading volume components and various realized volatility using1min high frequency data of Shanghai copper and aluminum futures.Moreover,the asymmetry of volatility-volume relationship is investigated.The results show that there is strong positive correlation between volatility and trading volume when realized volatility and its continuous component are considered.The relationship between trading volume and discontinuous jump component is ambiguous.The expected and unexpected trading volumes have positive influence on volatility.Furthermore,the unexpected trading volume,which is caused by arrival of new information,has a larger influence on price volatility.The findings also show that an asymmetric volatility-volume relationship indeed exists,which can be interpreted by the fact that trading volume has more explanatory power in positive realized semi-variance than negative realized semi-variance.The influence of positive trading volume shock on volatility is larger than that of negative trading volume shock,which reflects strong arbitrage in Chinese copper and aluminum futures markets.展开更多
A description of the future as it might be without forecasts, predictions and trend analysis can be referred to as a 'future scenario'. An abundance of scenarios literature exists in which numerous pictures ha...A description of the future as it might be without forecasts, predictions and trend analysis can be referred to as a 'future scenario'. An abundance of scenarios literature exists in which numerous pictures have been painted of changed future worlds. However, upon closer inspection it becomes apparent that virtually all of this literature refers to changes occurring above ground, ignoring the inevitable consequences (or opportunities) for sustainable use of underground space, not least in densely populated urban areas, some of which may be underlain by complex geological conditions. This paper reports on the development (to date) of an 'Urban Futures' (UF) toolkit for sub-surface environments (including infrastructure and utilities) which, through use of 'key' questions 'sustainable' indicators and a 'contextual' narrative, allows for better definition and measured performance of underground space in the UK, both today and in the future. The toolkit explores possible uses for underground space within 4 plausible and well-cited future scenarios (i.e. New Sustainability Paradigm, Fortress World, Market Forces and Policy Reform). This forms part of a much larger generic toolkit which the UF research team are developing for exploring possible future scenarios over a range of UK urban regeneration case study areas.展开更多
This study investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on the volatility of European Union(EU)carbon futures prices and whether it has predictive power for the volatility of carbon futures prices.The GA...This study investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on the volatility of European Union(EU)carbon futures prices and whether it has predictive power for the volatility of carbon futures prices.The GARCH-MIDAS model is applied for evaluating the impact of different EPU indexes on the price volatility of European Union Allowance(EUA)futures.We then compare the predictive power for the volatility of the two GARCH-MIDAS models based on different EPU indexes and six GARCH-type models.Our empirical results show that the GARCH-MIDAS models,which exhibit superior out-of-sample predictive ability,outperform GARCH-type models.The results also indicate that EPU has noticeable effect on the volatility of EUA futures.Specifically,the forecast accuracy of the EU EPU index is significantly higher than that of the global EPU index.Robustness checks further confirm that the EPU index(especially the EPU index of the EU)has strong predictive power for EUA futures prices.Additionally,using the volatility forecasting methods that GARCH-MIDAS models combine with the EPU index,investors can construct their portfolios to realize economic returns.展开更多
The thesis analyzes the causal relationship between the cotton spot,and the tendency and impact of prices of futures markets in Xinjiang by using ADF test,co-integration analysis,Granger causality test and other econo...The thesis analyzes the causal relationship between the cotton spot,and the tendency and impact of prices of futures markets in Xinjiang by using ADF test,co-integration analysis,Granger causality test and other econometric methods in order to discuss the interacted relationship between futures market prices of cotton and spot market prices since the futures of cotton in Xinjiang go public.The results of empirical analysis show that the spot market prices of cotton and the futures market prices in Xinjiang fluctuate prominently in the short run and tend to counterpoise in the long run;the futures market of cotton plays the role of leading the spot market prices of cotton in Xinjiang,while the spot market prices of cotton in Xinjiang impacts little on the futures market prices.The corresponding countermeasures are put forward.The government should continuously perfect the construction of the futures market of cotton in Xinjiang,so as to exert the function of price discovery and the function of hedging,and promote the development of cotton industry in Xinjiang.展开更多
The metal futures price fluctuation prediction model was constructed based on symbolic high-frequency time series using high-frequency data on the Shanghai Copper Futures Exchange from July 2014 to September 2018,and ...The metal futures price fluctuation prediction model was constructed based on symbolic high-frequency time series using high-frequency data on the Shanghai Copper Futures Exchange from July 2014 to September 2018,and the sample was divided into 194 histogram time series employing symbolic time series.The next cycle was then predicted using the K-NN algorithm and exponential smoothing,respectively.The results show that the trend of the histogram of the copper futures earnings prediction is gentler than that of the actual histogram,the overall situation of the prediction results is better,and the overall fluctuation of the one-week earnings of the copper futures predicted and the actual volatility are largely the same.This shows that the results predicted by the K-NN algorithm are more accurate than those predicted by the exponential smoothing method.Based on the predicted one-week price fluctuations of copper futures,regulators and investors in China’s copper futures market can timely adjust their regulatory policies and investment strategies to control risks.展开更多
This paper seeks to model and forecast the Chinese nonferrous metals futures market volatility and allows new insights into the time-varying volatility of realized volatility and leverage effects using high-frequency ...This paper seeks to model and forecast the Chinese nonferrous metals futures market volatility and allows new insights into the time-varying volatility of realized volatility and leverage effects using high-frequency data.The LHAR-CJ model is extended and the empirical research on copper and aluminum futures in Shanghai Futures Exchange suggests the dynamic dependencies and time-varying volatility of realized volatility,which are captured by long memory HAR-GARCH model.Besides,the findings also show the significant weekly leverage effects in Chinese nonferrous metals futures market volatility.Finally,in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts are investigated,and the results show that the LHAR-CJ-G model,considering time-varyingvolatility of realized volatility and leverage effects,effectively improves the explanatory power as well as out-of sample predictive performance.展开更多
Taking soybean products as an example and using the daily price data of 2007-2015,this paper established the error correction model and BEKK-GARCH model,and made an empirical study on the spillover effect of futures a...Taking soybean products as an example and using the daily price data of 2007-2015,this paper established the error correction model and BEKK-GARCH model,and made an empirical study on the spillover effect of futures and spot price of agricultural products of China. According to this study,there were mean spillover effect and two-way volatility spillover effect in futures and spot price of soybean,soybean oil,and soybean meal; soybean futures prices significantly guided the spot price; in the price linkage between the types,the price relationship between the soybean meal and soybean was closer than between the soybean oil and soybean.展开更多
Agricultural futures market plays an important role in financial system,and its function of price discovery and hedging is of great significance to the long-term price stability for agricultural products.However,in Ch...Agricultural futures market plays an important role in financial system,and its function of price discovery and hedging is of great significance to the long-term price stability for agricultural products.However,in China,agricultural futures market is still in construction stage,and scholars have not fully studied its price discovery function.Hence,this study will investigate the price discovery function of China agricultural futures market.The causal relationship,price contribution degree and volatility spillover effect of futures and spot markets are studied by comparing the price discovery function of soybean,yellow corn and soybean oil futures and spot.Taking the average daily settlement price of futures and spot in Dalian Commodity Exchange as study objects,the VECM and PT-IS model is used to investigate the causal relationship and the difference in price contribution between them.Then DDC-MGARCH-t model is used to analyze their volatility spillover effect.The empirical results show that there is obvious mutual guiding relationship between agricultural futures and spot market,and the price contribution of futures is significantly higher than that of spot,proving that agricultural futures have the function of price discovery.Meanwhile,the volatility spillover effect between agricultural futures and spot is bidirectional.The impact of internal fluctuations is often greater than that of external shocks.展开更多
Different from western markets, the margin rates in Chinese futures markets are raised when contract approaches maturity. This paper concentrates on the effect of this time dependent margin rule on volatility. Open in...Different from western markets, the margin rates in Chinese futures markets are raised when contract approaches maturity. This paper concentrates on the effect of this time dependent margin rule on volatility. Open interest, another candidate in the margin rule, is also included in our model to investigate its necessity as one of the factors of the rise of margin rates. With the popular copper contract in Shanghai Futures Exchange （ SHFE）, our test results suggest that margin levels have a significant positive effect on volatility, yet open interest has little to do with volatility. The implication is that the rise of margin rate approaching maturity virtually deteriorates the degree of market risks, and open interest is not a necessary factor for the margin rule. It indicates that the policy tool, represented by margin rates, has significantly greater influence on volatility than the market element, represented by open interest.展开更多
No-arbitrage bound is established with no-arbitrage theory considering all kinds of trade costs, different deposit and loan interest rate, margin and tax in futures markets. The empirical results find that there are m...No-arbitrage bound is established with no-arbitrage theory considering all kinds of trade costs, different deposit and loan interest rate, margin and tax in futures markets. The empirical results find that there are many lower bound arbitrage opportunities in China copper futures market from August 8th, 2003 to August 16th, 2005, Concretely, no-arbitrage opportunity is dominant and lower bound arbitrage is narrow in normal market segment. Lower bound arbitrage almost always exists with huge magnitude in inverted market segment. There is basically no-arbitrage in normal market because spot volume is enough, so that upper or lower bound arbi- trage can be realized, There is mostly lower bound arbitrage in inverted market because spot volume is lack.展开更多
The forecast on price of agricultural futures is studied in this paper. We use the ARIMA model to estimate the price trends of agricultural futures,which can help the investors to optimize their investing plans. The s...The forecast on price of agricultural futures is studied in this paper. We use the ARIMA model to estimate the price trends of agricultural futures,which can help the investors to optimize their investing plans. The soybean future contracts are taken as an example to simulate the forecast based on the auto-regression coefficient(p),differential times(d) and moving average coefficient(q). The results show that ARIMA model is better to simulate and forecast the trend of closing prices of soybean futures contract,and it is applicable to forecasting the price of agricultural futures.展开更多
In order to investigate the nature of international crude oil futures and present evidence of long memory and nonlinear dependence for crude oil futures volatility as well as returns, a certain number of recent statis...In order to investigate the nature of international crude oil futures and present evidence of long memory and nonlinear dependence for crude oil futures volatility as well as returns, a certain number of recent statistical tests, such as the powerful BDS test, the fractional integration test and other known statistics, are applied. The results show that though the returns themselves contain little serial correlation, the market volatility series have significant long-term dependence structures which may have important implications for volatility forecasts and derivative pricing. On the other hand, evidence of strong ARCH effect is also presented, and, moreover, the BDS statistics on the standardized residuals of the fitted GARCH model indicate that the ARCH-type process may generally explain the nonlinearities in the data. It seems that the crude oil futures market can be appropriately modeled by ARCH and fractal processes. These findings indicate that it would be beneficial to assess the behavior of the crude oil and price the oil derivative contracts by encompassing long memory and nonlinear structure.展开更多
基金supported in part by grants from the Ministry of Science and Technology,Taiwan,under Grant no.MOST 111-2410-H-240-001-.
文摘This study aims to examine whether life insurance futures can serve as a hedge against the COVID-19 pandemic and whether they have the characteristics of a safe haven under the impact of the health shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic.We chose three life insurance stock futures in India and one in Taiwan as samples,including the market index of the two countries and the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases as sample variables.We used the growth rate of COVID-19 cases as the threshold variable,esti-mated the asymmetric threshold vector autoregression model,and found that insur-ance futures in the regime with a significant growth rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases can hedge against COVID-19 risks;therefore,insurance futures are a safe haven for the market.We further estimated the time-varying parameter vector autoregression model,and the impulse response results showed that insurance futures are a safe haven for COVID-19 pandemic risks.
基金Project(13&ZD024)supported by the Major Program of the National Social Science Fund of ChinaProject(71073177)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China+3 种基金Project(CX2012B107)supported by the Graduate Student Innovation Project of Hunan Province,ChinaProject(13YJAZH149)supported by the Social Science Fund of Ministry of Education of ChinaProject(2011ZK2043)supported by the Key Program of the Soft Science Research Project of Hunan Province,ChinaProject(12JJ4077)supported by Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province of China
文摘An empirical test on long memory between price and trading volume of China metals futures market was given with MF-DCCA method. The empirical results show that long memory feature with a certain period exists in price-volume correlation and a fittther proof was given by analyzing the source of multifractal feature. The empirical results suggest that it is of important practical significance to bring the fractal market theory and other nonlinear theory into the analysis and explanation of the behavior in metal futures market.
文摘This paper analyzes the role of price discovery of Shanghai fuel oil futures market by using methods, such as unit root test, co-integration test, error correction model, Granger causality test, impulse-response fimction and variance decomposition. The results showed that there exists a strong relationship between the spot price of Huangpu fuel oil spot market and the futures price of Shanghai fuel oil futures market. In addition, the Shanghai fuel oil futures market exhibits a highly effective price discovery function.
文摘Similar to the method of continuum mechanics, the variation of the price of index futures is viewed to be continuous and regular. According to the characteristic of index futures, a basic equation of price of index futures was established. It is a differential equation, its solution shows that the relation between time and price forms a logarithmic circle. If the time is thought of as the probability of its corresponding price, then such a relation is perfectly coincided with the main assumption of the famous formula of option pricing, based on statistical theory, established by Black and Scholes winner of 1997 Nobel' prize on economy. In that formula, the probability of price of basic assets (they stand for index futures here) is assummed to be a logarithmic normal distribution. This agreement shows that the same result may be obtained by two analytic methods with different bases. However, the result, given by assumption by Black-Scholes, is derived from the solution of the differential equation.
文摘The article presents the example of using relations between the price of wheat flour sold by the milling companies and the price of wheat futures listed on the FOREX market to protect the companies from bakery sector against adverse price movements of raw material--wheat flour. The paper aims to present a method which can help to reduce risk of changes wheat flour price in the market by using wheat futures traded at FOREX market. For the analysis authors used weekly data since January 2006 until October 2010 about wheat flour price, wheat grain price, wheat futures prices, quotes a currency pair USD/PLN. Wheat flour prices came from studies of the Department of Agricultural Markets, Ministry of Agriculture, and Rural Development in Poland and represented the average sales price of wheat flour by milling companies. Information about wheat futures and quotes a currency pair USD/PLN reflects the actual trading of the FOREX market. Authors used statistical analysis tool for determining the strength of the relationship between the price of wheat flour and the wheat price on the domestic market and the wheat futures price. The correlation coefficient between them was 0.763. For further test authors used seven different options that use future contracts to reduce fluctuations in the flour price which can be used in bakery businesses. These results of research show that someone can effectively use wheat futures contracts listed on the FOREX market to protect the bakery business against adverse movements of wheat flour prices. Application in practice chosen strategies can allow bakery companies to achieve cost advantages by reducing the adverse changes in the wheat flour prices. Chosen strategies are more efficient if the prices of flour in the domestic market are rising. If prices drop down, the effectiveness of using wheat futures contracts was lower. It should be noted that wheat futures contracts are a good tool to achieve cost advantages in the bakery industry, especially when the wheat flour prices are increased on the domestic market.
文摘This study investigates the relationship between trading volume and returns in SET50 index Futures market in the period from April 2006 to December 2008 using 653 observations. From previous studies, we include three methodologies namely the GARCH model, the Generalized Method of Moments （GMM） to estimate systems of equations and the Granger causality test to investigate the relationship more thoroughly. In addition, we introduce the lagged volume as a new explanatory variable in the GARCH model. Overall, the results show the significant contemporaneous and dynamic relationships between trading volume and returns volatility which support the sequential information arrival hypothesis and imply some degree of market inefficiency. The results from this study also show that past information of trading volume can be used to improve the prediction of price volatility. Therefore, regulators and traders could include past information of trading volume of SET50 index futures in tracking and monitoring the market volatility level and the investment risk in order to make a timely decision.
基金Projects(71874210,71633006,71501193) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Based on the commodity property and finance property of gold in the international gold futures market,the influence factors of international gold futures price volatility are analyzed from the perspectives of supply and demand factors,financial factors and speculation factors.The structural vector autoregression(SVAR)model is applied to investigating the direction and strength of the effects of influence factors on the international gold futures prices and the variance decomposition approach(VDA)is used to compare the contributions of these factors.The results show that the supply and demand factors still play a fundamental role in the international gold futures price volatility and the role of“China’s gold demand”is exaggerated.The financial factors and speculation factors have significant impacts on the international gold futures price volatility,which reflects that the financial property of gold becomes increasingly important.Governments and investors should pay close attention to the financial property of gold futures.
基金Projects (71874210,71633006,71573282,71403298) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject (18ZWA07) supported by Think-Tank Major Project of Hunan Province,China
文摘Following Bessembinder and Seguins,trading volume is separated into expected and unexpected components.Meanwhile,realized volatility is divided into continuous and discontinuous jump components.We make the empirical research to investigate the relationship between trading volume components and various realized volatility using1min high frequency data of Shanghai copper and aluminum futures.Moreover,the asymmetry of volatility-volume relationship is investigated.The results show that there is strong positive correlation between volatility and trading volume when realized volatility and its continuous component are considered.The relationship between trading volume and discontinuous jump component is ambiguous.The expected and unexpected trading volumes have positive influence on volatility.Furthermore,the unexpected trading volume,which is caused by arrival of new information,has a larger influence on price volatility.The findings also show that an asymmetric volatility-volume relationship indeed exists,which can be interpreted by the fact that trading volume has more explanatory power in positive realized semi-variance than negative realized semi-variance.The influence of positive trading volume shock on volatility is larger than that of negative trading volume shock,which reflects strong arbitrage in Chinese copper and aluminum futures markets.
基金support of the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) under grant number EP/F007426/1
文摘A description of the future as it might be without forecasts, predictions and trend analysis can be referred to as a 'future scenario'. An abundance of scenarios literature exists in which numerous pictures have been painted of changed future worlds. However, upon closer inspection it becomes apparent that virtually all of this literature refers to changes occurring above ground, ignoring the inevitable consequences (or opportunities) for sustainable use of underground space, not least in densely populated urban areas, some of which may be underlain by complex geological conditions. This paper reports on the development (to date) of an 'Urban Futures' (UF) toolkit for sub-surface environments (including infrastructure and utilities) which, through use of 'key' questions 'sustainable' indicators and a 'contextual' narrative, allows for better definition and measured performance of underground space in the UK, both today and in the future. The toolkit explores possible uses for underground space within 4 plausible and well-cited future scenarios (i.e. New Sustainability Paradigm, Fortress World, Market Forces and Policy Reform). This forms part of a much larger generic toolkit which the UF research team are developing for exploring possible future scenarios over a range of UK urban regeneration case study areas.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.71871030,72131011)the Open Fund Project of Key Research Institute of Philosophies and Social Sciences in Hunan University of China(No.20FEFMZ1).
文摘This study investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on the volatility of European Union(EU)carbon futures prices and whether it has predictive power for the volatility of carbon futures prices.The GARCH-MIDAS model is applied for evaluating the impact of different EPU indexes on the price volatility of European Union Allowance(EUA)futures.We then compare the predictive power for the volatility of the two GARCH-MIDAS models based on different EPU indexes and six GARCH-type models.Our empirical results show that the GARCH-MIDAS models,which exhibit superior out-of-sample predictive ability,outperform GARCH-type models.The results also indicate that EPU has noticeable effect on the volatility of EUA futures.Specifically,the forecast accuracy of the EU EPU index is significantly higher than that of the global EPU index.Robustness checks further confirm that the EPU index(especially the EPU index of the EU)has strong predictive power for EUA futures prices.Additionally,using the volatility forecasting methods that GARCH-MIDAS models combine with the EPU index,investors can construct their portfolios to realize economic returns.
基金Supported by The President Foundation Program of Tarim University(TDSKSS08002)
文摘The thesis analyzes the causal relationship between the cotton spot,and the tendency and impact of prices of futures markets in Xinjiang by using ADF test,co-integration analysis,Granger causality test and other econometric methods in order to discuss the interacted relationship between futures market prices of cotton and spot market prices since the futures of cotton in Xinjiang go public.The results of empirical analysis show that the spot market prices of cotton and the futures market prices in Xinjiang fluctuate prominently in the short run and tend to counterpoise in the long run;the futures market of cotton plays the role of leading the spot market prices of cotton in Xinjiang,while the spot market prices of cotton in Xinjiang impacts little on the futures market prices.The corresponding countermeasures are put forward.The government should continuously perfect the construction of the futures market of cotton in Xinjiang,so as to exert the function of price discovery and the function of hedging,and promote the development of cotton industry in Xinjiang.
基金Projects(71633006,7184207,7184210)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2019CX016)supported by the Annual Innovation-driven Project in Central South University,China。
文摘The metal futures price fluctuation prediction model was constructed based on symbolic high-frequency time series using high-frequency data on the Shanghai Copper Futures Exchange from July 2014 to September 2018,and the sample was divided into 194 histogram time series employing symbolic time series.The next cycle was then predicted using the K-NN algorithm and exponential smoothing,respectively.The results show that the trend of the histogram of the copper futures earnings prediction is gentler than that of the actual histogram,the overall situation of the prediction results is better,and the overall fluctuation of the one-week earnings of the copper futures predicted and the actual volatility are largely the same.This shows that the results predicted by the K-NN algorithm are more accurate than those predicted by the exponential smoothing method.Based on the predicted one-week price fluctuations of copper futures,regulators and investors in China’s copper futures market can timely adjust their regulatory policies and investment strategies to control risks.
基金Project(13&ZD169)supported by the Major Program of the National Social Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2016zzts009)supported by Doctoral Students Independent Explore Innovation Project of Central South University,China+3 种基金Project(13YJAZH149)supported by the Social Science Foundation of Ministry of Education of ChinaProject(2015JJ2182)supported by the Social Science Foundation of Hunan Province,ChinaProject(71573282)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(15K133)supported by the Educational Commission of Hunan Province of China
文摘This paper seeks to model and forecast the Chinese nonferrous metals futures market volatility and allows new insights into the time-varying volatility of realized volatility and leverage effects using high-frequency data.The LHAR-CJ model is extended and the empirical research on copper and aluminum futures in Shanghai Futures Exchange suggests the dynamic dependencies and time-varying volatility of realized volatility,which are captured by long memory HAR-GARCH model.Besides,the findings also show the significant weekly leverage effects in Chinese nonferrous metals futures market volatility.Finally,in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts are investigated,and the results show that the LHAR-CJ-G model,considering time-varyingvolatility of realized volatility and leverage effects,effectively improves the explanatory power as well as out-of sample predictive performance.
基金Supported by the Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China"Study on Risk Evaluation and Transmission of Agricultural Product Futures and Spot Market in China in the Context of Finance"(71673103)
文摘Taking soybean products as an example and using the daily price data of 2007-2015,this paper established the error correction model and BEKK-GARCH model,and made an empirical study on the spillover effect of futures and spot price of agricultural products of China. According to this study,there were mean spillover effect and two-way volatility spillover effect in futures and spot price of soybean,soybean oil,and soybean meal; soybean futures prices significantly guided the spot price; in the price linkage between the types,the price relationship between the soybean meal and soybean was closer than between the soybean oil and soybean.
文摘Agricultural futures market plays an important role in financial system,and its function of price discovery and hedging is of great significance to the long-term price stability for agricultural products.However,in China,agricultural futures market is still in construction stage,and scholars have not fully studied its price discovery function.Hence,this study will investigate the price discovery function of China agricultural futures market.The causal relationship,price contribution degree and volatility spillover effect of futures and spot markets are studied by comparing the price discovery function of soybean,yellow corn and soybean oil futures and spot.Taking the average daily settlement price of futures and spot in Dalian Commodity Exchange as study objects,the VECM and PT-IS model is used to investigate the causal relationship and the difference in price contribution between them.Then DDC-MGARCH-t model is used to analyze their volatility spillover effect.The empirical results show that there is obvious mutual guiding relationship between agricultural futures and spot market,and the price contribution of futures is significantly higher than that of spot,proving that agricultural futures have the function of price discovery.Meanwhile,the volatility spillover effect between agricultural futures and spot is bidirectional.The impact of internal fluctuations is often greater than that of external shocks.
文摘Different from western markets, the margin rates in Chinese futures markets are raised when contract approaches maturity. This paper concentrates on the effect of this time dependent margin rule on volatility. Open interest, another candidate in the margin rule, is also included in our model to investigate its necessity as one of the factors of the rise of margin rates. With the popular copper contract in Shanghai Futures Exchange （ SHFE）, our test results suggest that margin levels have a significant positive effect on volatility, yet open interest has little to do with volatility. The implication is that the rise of margin rate approaching maturity virtually deteriorates the degree of market risks, and open interest is not a necessary factor for the margin rule. It indicates that the policy tool, represented by margin rates, has significantly greater influence on volatility than the market element, represented by open interest.
基金National Natural Science Foundation ofChina (No.70331001)
文摘No-arbitrage bound is established with no-arbitrage theory considering all kinds of trade costs, different deposit and loan interest rate, margin and tax in futures markets. The empirical results find that there are many lower bound arbitrage opportunities in China copper futures market from August 8th, 2003 to August 16th, 2005, Concretely, no-arbitrage opportunity is dominant and lower bound arbitrage is narrow in normal market segment. Lower bound arbitrage almost always exists with huge magnitude in inverted market segment. There is basically no-arbitrage in normal market because spot volume is enough, so that upper or lower bound arbi- trage can be realized, There is mostly lower bound arbitrage in inverted market because spot volume is lack.
文摘The forecast on price of agricultural futures is studied in this paper. We use the ARIMA model to estimate the price trends of agricultural futures,which can help the investors to optimize their investing plans. The soybean future contracts are taken as an example to simulate the forecast based on the auto-regression coefficient(p),differential times(d) and moving average coefficient(q). The results show that ARIMA model is better to simulate and forecast the trend of closing prices of soybean futures contract,and it is applicable to forecasting the price of agricultural futures.
基金The MEXT Global COE Program on Informatics Education and Research Center for Knowledge-Circulating society (Kyoto University)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (No.20070410548)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.70221001)
文摘In order to investigate the nature of international crude oil futures and present evidence of long memory and nonlinear dependence for crude oil futures volatility as well as returns, a certain number of recent statistical tests, such as the powerful BDS test, the fractional integration test and other known statistics, are applied. The results show that though the returns themselves contain little serial correlation, the market volatility series have significant long-term dependence structures which may have important implications for volatility forecasts and derivative pricing. On the other hand, evidence of strong ARCH effect is also presented, and, moreover, the BDS statistics on the standardized residuals of the fitted GARCH model indicate that the ARCH-type process may generally explain the nonlinearities in the data. It seems that the crude oil futures market can be appropriately modeled by ARCH and fractal processes. These findings indicate that it would be beneficial to assess the behavior of the crude oil and price the oil derivative contracts by encompassing long memory and nonlinear structure.
