On 23 June 2016,the citizens of the United Kingdom(UK)took part in one of the most iconic votes in modern economic history as they voted in favour of the UK leaving the European Union(EU).This has resulted in great un...On 23 June 2016,the citizens of the United Kingdom(UK)took part in one of the most iconic votes in modern economic history as they voted in favour of the UK leaving the European Union(EU).This has resulted in great uncertainty around the future of the economy of the UK as well as the world economy.There were obvious and immediate effects around the time of the vote,such as the decrease in business and consumer confidence,depreciation in the value of the pound which will ultimately lead to inflation,and there are also many effects which we will only see come to fruition as the Brexit(Britain exiting from the EU)scenario plays out over the coming two-to three-year horizon.This allows us to conduct a scenario analysis of the various methods that the UK may utilise to withdraw from the EU and the effects that these methods will have on the economy of the UK and these effects will come through many channels.Our analysis shows how the Bank of England can use monetary policy to limit the effects of Brexit through trying to achieve its 2%inflation target.展开更多
The performance of inflation in China over the past few decades has been remarkable. This paper characterizes the statistical nature of the inflation series in China over the past quarter of a century and presents an ...The performance of inflation in China over the past few decades has been remarkable. This paper characterizes the statistical nature of the inflation series in China over the past quarter of a century and presents an interesting scenario of large decline in inflation passthrough accompanied with low inflation since the end of the 1990s. How should monetary policy in China be conducted under these new economic conditions？ We propose a discrete inflation-targeting framework for monetary policy, which is likely to be suitable for the regime of low inflation and inflation pass-through. The advantages and caveats of adopting such a framework are also discussed.展开更多
This text evaluates the convergence among the main targets of a Central Bank, like the Brazilian Central Bank, with that deals with objectives such as inflation targeting, bank regulation, and financial inclusion, whe...This text evaluates the convergence among the main targets of a Central Bank, like the Brazilian Central Bank, with that deals with objectives such as inflation targeting, bank regulation, and financial inclusion, when it operates subject to the Bank for International Settlements （BIS） recommendations gathered in the recent Basel III agreement. A Brazilian conjuncture analysis starts with the economic stabilization plan known as Piano Real （July, 1994） and takes account that, from 2007 onwards, the world economy is going through troubled times unchained by the international financial crisis that motivated the recent Basel Agreement （Basel III）. There are two lines of analysis： macroeconomic and marketing. From the macroeconomic approach, there are plenty models to predict money supply and monetary aggregates. From a marketing perspective, it can be inferred that technologies potentially innovatives may alter the current scenario. The financial time series chosen are： daily money supply, banking reserves, and annual inflation （monthly announced）. The first statistical and empirical evidences from the period （July, 1994 to December, 2011） show that the management of banking reserves does not interfere with the continuous growth of the monetary base plus demand deposits （M1） and cash in circulation, which possibly indicates an increasing financial inclusion. Moreover, there is no evidence that it creates inflationary pressures. The future works may require competencies pertinent to prospective finance and consumer behavior （marketing）.展开更多
基金supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(China)[Grant number 15XNI001].
文摘On 23 June 2016,the citizens of the United Kingdom(UK)took part in one of the most iconic votes in modern economic history as they voted in favour of the UK leaving the European Union(EU).This has resulted in great uncertainty around the future of the economy of the UK as well as the world economy.There were obvious and immediate effects around the time of the vote,such as the decrease in business and consumer confidence,depreciation in the value of the pound which will ultimately lead to inflation,and there are also many effects which we will only see come to fruition as the Brexit(Britain exiting from the EU)scenario plays out over the coming two-to three-year horizon.This allows us to conduct a scenario analysis of the various methods that the UK may utilise to withdraw from the EU and the effects that these methods will have on the economy of the UK and these effects will come through many channels.Our analysis shows how the Bank of England can use monetary policy to limit the effects of Brexit through trying to achieve its 2%inflation target.
文摘The performance of inflation in China over the past few decades has been remarkable. This paper characterizes the statistical nature of the inflation series in China over the past quarter of a century and presents an interesting scenario of large decline in inflation passthrough accompanied with low inflation since the end of the 1990s. How should monetary policy in China be conducted under these new economic conditions？ We propose a discrete inflation-targeting framework for monetary policy, which is likely to be suitable for the regime of low inflation and inflation pass-through. The advantages and caveats of adopting such a framework are also discussed.
文摘This text evaluates the convergence among the main targets of a Central Bank, like the Brazilian Central Bank, with that deals with objectives such as inflation targeting, bank regulation, and financial inclusion, when it operates subject to the Bank for International Settlements （BIS） recommendations gathered in the recent Basel III agreement. A Brazilian conjuncture analysis starts with the economic stabilization plan known as Piano Real （July, 1994） and takes account that, from 2007 onwards, the world economy is going through troubled times unchained by the international financial crisis that motivated the recent Basel Agreement （Basel III）. There are two lines of analysis： macroeconomic and marketing. From the macroeconomic approach, there are plenty models to predict money supply and monetary aggregates. From a marketing perspective, it can be inferred that technologies potentially innovatives may alter the current scenario. The financial time series chosen are： daily money supply, banking reserves, and annual inflation （monthly announced）. The first statistical and empirical evidences from the period （July, 1994 to December, 2011） show that the management of banking reserves does not interfere with the continuous growth of the monetary base plus demand deposits （M1） and cash in circulation, which possibly indicates an increasing financial inclusion. Moreover, there is no evidence that it creates inflationary pressures. The future works may require competencies pertinent to prospective finance and consumer behavior （marketing）.
