A new approach is proposed in this study for accountable capability improvement based on interpretable capability evaluation using the belief rule base(BRB).Firstly,a capability evaluation model is constructed and opt...A new approach is proposed in this study for accountable capability improvement based on interpretable capability evaluation using the belief rule base(BRB).Firstly,a capability evaluation model is constructed and optimized.Then,the key sub-capabilities are identified by quantitatively calculating the contributions made by each sub-capability to the overall capability.Finally,the overall capability is improved by optimizing the identified key sub-capabilities.The theoretical contributions of the proposed approach are as follows.(i)An interpretable capability evaluation model is constructed by employing BRB which can provide complete access to decision-makers.(ii)Key sub-capabilities are identified according to the quantitative contribution analysis results.(iii)Accountable capability improvement is carried out by only optimizing the identified key sub-capabilities.Case study results show that“Surveillance”,“Positioning”,and“Identification”are identified as key sub-capabilities with a summed contribution of 75.55%in an analytical and deducible fashion based on the interpretable capability evaluation model.As a result,the overall capability is improved by optimizing only the identified key sub-capabilities.The overall capability can be greatly improved from 59.20%to 81.80%with a minimum cost of 397.Furthermore,this paper also investigates how optimizing the BRB with more collected data would affect the evaluation results:only optimizing“Surveillance”and“Positioning”can also improve the overall capability to 81.34%with a cost of 370,which thus validates the efficiency of the proposed approach.展开更多
To promote adaptation of logging evaluation technologies to the development trend of unconventional oil and gas exploration and development era in China,the current situation and challenges of logging evaluation techn...To promote adaptation of logging evaluation technologies to the development trend of unconventional oil and gas exploration and development era in China,the current situation and challenges of logging evaluation technologies in China are analyzed systematically.Based on the concept of that demand drives technology development,and referring to the international leading technologies,development strategy of logging evaluation technology in China has been put forward.(1)Deepen petrophysics study:mobile 2 D NMR laboratory analysis technology for full diameter core should be developed,characteristic charts and evaluation standards of different fluid properties,different pore structures and different core exposure times should be established based on longitudinal and traverse relaxation spectra;in-depth digital rock experiment and mathematical and physical simulation research should be carried out to create innovative logging evaluation methods;acoustic and electrical anisotropy experimental analysis technology should be developed,and corresponding logging evaluation methods be innovated.(2)Strengthen target processing of logging data:precise inversion processing technology and sensitive information extraction technology of 2 D NMR logging should be developed to finely describe the micro-pore distribution in tight reservoir and accurately distinguish movable oil,bound oil,and bound water etc.The processing method of 3 D ultra-distance detection acoustic logging should be researched.(3)Develop special logging interpretation and evaluation methods:first,mathematical model for quantitatively describing the saturation distribution law of unconventional oil and gas near source and in source should be created;second,evaluation methods and standards of shale oil and deep shale gas"sweet-spots"with mobile oil content and gas content as key parameter separately should be researched vigorously;third,calculation methods of pore pressure under two high-pressure genetic mechanisms,under-compaction and hydrocarbon charging,should be improved;fourth,evaluation method of formation fracability considering the reservoir geologic and engineering quality,and optimization method of horizontal well fracturing stage and cluster based on comprehensive evaluation of stress barrier and lithologic barrier should be worked out.展开更多
China has developed more than 20 water pollution control plans for river basins （RBWPs） since 1996. However, the implementation has generally lagged. This paper proposes a three-step, post-evaluation methodology to ...China has developed more than 20 water pollution control plans for river basins （RBWPs） since 1996. However, the implementation has generally lagged. This paper proposes a three-step, post-evaluation methodology to analyze the implementation result of a RBWP and its influential factors. First, a multi-attribute evaluation method based on an index system is established to score the enforcement results of a RBWP. Indicators measure how well a RBWP has achieved its objectives, which include water quality compliance, pollution load control, project construction, financial inputs, and related management requirements. Second, an interpretive structural model is used to detect the significant factors that affect RBWP implementation. This model can effectively analyze the cause-effect chain and hierarchical relationship among variables. Five groups of factors were identified, namely, plan preparation, water resource endowment, policy, institution, and management. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are employed in the third step to evaluate the extent to which these factors have influenced the execution result of a RBWP, including pre-post contrast, scenario analysis, and correlation analysis. This research then post-evaluated the implementation of the Huai River Basin water pollution control plans （H-RBWPs） over a period of 10 years as a case study. Results showed that the implementation of the H-RBWPs was unsatisfactory during 2001–2005, although it improved during 2006–2010. The poor execution of these plans was partially caused by the underestimation of regional economic development in combination with ineffective industrial structure adjustment policies. Therefore, this case study demonstrates the feasibility and flexibility of the proposed post-evaluation methodology.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(72471067,72431011,72471238,72231011,62303474,72301286)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Provincial Universities of Zhejiang(GK239909299001-010).
文摘A new approach is proposed in this study for accountable capability improvement based on interpretable capability evaluation using the belief rule base(BRB).Firstly,a capability evaluation model is constructed and optimized.Then,the key sub-capabilities are identified by quantitatively calculating the contributions made by each sub-capability to the overall capability.Finally,the overall capability is improved by optimizing the identified key sub-capabilities.The theoretical contributions of the proposed approach are as follows.(i)An interpretable capability evaluation model is constructed by employing BRB which can provide complete access to decision-makers.(ii)Key sub-capabilities are identified according to the quantitative contribution analysis results.(iii)Accountable capability improvement is carried out by only optimizing the identified key sub-capabilities.Case study results show that“Surveillance”,“Positioning”,and“Identification”are identified as key sub-capabilities with a summed contribution of 75.55%in an analytical and deducible fashion based on the interpretable capability evaluation model.As a result,the overall capability is improved by optimizing only the identified key sub-capabilities.The overall capability can be greatly improved from 59.20%to 81.80%with a minimum cost of 397.Furthermore,this paper also investigates how optimizing the BRB with more collected data would affect the evaluation results:only optimizing“Surveillance”and“Positioning”can also improve the overall capability to 81.34%with a cost of 370,which thus validates the efficiency of the proposed approach.
文摘To promote adaptation of logging evaluation technologies to the development trend of unconventional oil and gas exploration and development era in China,the current situation and challenges of logging evaluation technologies in China are analyzed systematically.Based on the concept of that demand drives technology development,and referring to the international leading technologies,development strategy of logging evaluation technology in China has been put forward.(1)Deepen petrophysics study:mobile 2 D NMR laboratory analysis technology for full diameter core should be developed,characteristic charts and evaluation standards of different fluid properties,different pore structures and different core exposure times should be established based on longitudinal and traverse relaxation spectra;in-depth digital rock experiment and mathematical and physical simulation research should be carried out to create innovative logging evaluation methods;acoustic and electrical anisotropy experimental analysis technology should be developed,and corresponding logging evaluation methods be innovated.(2)Strengthen target processing of logging data:precise inversion processing technology and sensitive information extraction technology of 2 D NMR logging should be developed to finely describe the micro-pore distribution in tight reservoir and accurately distinguish movable oil,bound oil,and bound water etc.The processing method of 3 D ultra-distance detection acoustic logging should be researched.(3)Develop special logging interpretation and evaluation methods:first,mathematical model for quantitatively describing the saturation distribution law of unconventional oil and gas near source and in source should be created;second,evaluation methods and standards of shale oil and deep shale gas"sweet-spots"with mobile oil content and gas content as key parameter separately should be researched vigorously;third,calculation methods of pore pressure under two high-pressure genetic mechanisms,under-compaction and hydrocarbon charging,should be improved;fourth,evaluation method of formation fracability considering the reservoir geologic and engineering quality,and optimization method of horizontal well fracturing stage and cluster based on comprehensive evaluation of stress barrier and lithologic barrier should be worked out.
文摘China has developed more than 20 water pollution control plans for river basins （RBWPs） since 1996. However, the implementation has generally lagged. This paper proposes a three-step, post-evaluation methodology to analyze the implementation result of a RBWP and its influential factors. First, a multi-attribute evaluation method based on an index system is established to score the enforcement results of a RBWP. Indicators measure how well a RBWP has achieved its objectives, which include water quality compliance, pollution load control, project construction, financial inputs, and related management requirements. Second, an interpretive structural model is used to detect the significant factors that affect RBWP implementation. This model can effectively analyze the cause-effect chain and hierarchical relationship among variables. Five groups of factors were identified, namely, plan preparation, water resource endowment, policy, institution, and management. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are employed in the third step to evaluate the extent to which these factors have influenced the execution result of a RBWP, including pre-post contrast, scenario analysis, and correlation analysis. This research then post-evaluated the implementation of the Huai River Basin water pollution control plans （H-RBWPs） over a period of 10 years as a case study. Results showed that the implementation of the H-RBWPs was unsatisfactory during 2001–2005, although it improved during 2006–2010. The poor execution of these plans was partially caused by the underestimation of regional economic development in combination with ineffective industrial structure adjustment policies. Therefore, this case study demonstrates the feasibility and flexibility of the proposed post-evaluation methodology.
