The kinetic theory is employed to analyze influence of agent competence and psychological factors on investment decision-making.We assume that the wealth held by agents in the financial market is non-negative,and agen...The kinetic theory is employed to analyze influence of agent competence and psychological factors on investment decision-making.We assume that the wealth held by agents in the financial market is non-negative,and agents set their own investment strategies.The herding behavior is considered when analyzing the impact of an agent's psychological factors on investment decision-making.A nonlinear Boltzmann model containing herding behavior,agent competence and irrational behavior is employed to investigate investment decision-making.To characterize the agent's irrational behavior,we utilize a value function which includes current and ideal-investment decisions to describe the agent's irrational behavior.Employing the asymptotic procedure,we obtain the Fokker-Planck equation from the Boltzmann equation.Numerical results and the stationary solution of the obtained Fokker-Planck equation illustrate how herding behavior,agent competence,psychological factors,and irrational behavior affect investment decision-making,i.e.,herding behavior has both advantages and disadvantages for investment decision-making,and the agent's competence to invest helps the agent to increase income and to reduce loss.展开更多
Investment decision is a traditional multi-attribute decision making (MADM) problem since it has many uncertainty factors and incomplete information such as investment value, cost, sales, etc. D numbers theory is a us...Investment decision is a traditional multi-attribute decision making (MADM) problem since it has many uncertainty factors and incomplete information such as investment value, cost, sales, etc. D numbers theory is a useful tool to deal with uncertainty factors and incomplete information. In this paper, interval number and D numbers theory are revealed in the uncertain factor and incomplete information of investment decision. The weights of uncertain factors are calculated using entropy weight method. Thus, a new MADM model for investment decision based on D numbers theory is proposed. Numerical example is used to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed method.展开更多
Decision makers’ choices are often influenced by visual background information. This study uses open-ended equity funds in Taiwan to investigate three well-known optimal portfolio models, including the mean-variance,...Decision makers’ choices are often influenced by visual background information. This study uses open-ended equity funds in Taiwan to investigate three well-known optimal portfolio models, including the mean-variance, maximin, and minimization of mean absolute deviation. The optimal portfolios are then visualized on Decision Balls to assist investors in making investment decisions. By observing the Decision Balls, investors can see the optimal portfolios, compare the optimal weights provided by the different models, view the cluster of funds, and even find substitute funds if preferred funds are not available.展开更多
The investment decision making of Project Gang, the projects that are associated with one another on economy and technique, is studied. In order to find out the best Scheme that can make the maximum profit, a dynamic ...The investment decision making of Project Gang, the projects that are associated with one another on economy and technique, is studied. In order to find out the best Scheme that can make the maximum profit, a dynamic programming algorithm on the investment decision making of Project Gang is brought forward, and this algorithm can find out the best Scheme of distributing the m resources to the n Items in the time of O(m 2 n).展开更多
One of the remarkable characteristics of the current development of China's national economy is the increase of uncertainties, which makes the traditional method more and more unsuitable for the current economic d...One of the remarkable characteristics of the current development of China's national economy is the increase of uncertainties, which makes the traditional method more and more unsuitable for the current economic development in the real estate investment process. Based on the option game theory, the investment decision making of real estate is analyzed here, the investment optimization mathematic model established, and Nash Equilibrium discussed. Through case studies, we analyze the application of game option in the real estate, which is put under symmetrical duopoly. The conclusions will contribute to both the theory on and practice of the present investment in the real estate enterprise.展开更多
There are many kinds of real options,which are valuable,in each phase of the lifetime of an information technology(IT)project.However,in the current IT investment decision theory,real options that embedded in IT proje...There are many kinds of real options,which are valuable,in each phase of the lifetime of an information technology(IT)project.However,in the current IT investment decision theory,real options that embedded in IT projects are not considered. In this paper, the process of IT project decision and implementation is fully analyzed, the real options that may be embedded in an IT project are identified, and a real option analysis (ROA) method is proposed for evaluation of an IT project under uncertain business environment. ROA employs Black-Scholes expansion model and cancels the assumption that the cost of project is certain. The numerical example manifests that the ROA can better evaluate IT project and select the IT investment alternative. Finally, a road map is provided to help selecting the suitable evaluation method to make IT investment decision.展开更多
Background:The purpose of the study is to understand the role of cash flow sensitivity to investment as a measure of financial constraints among listed Indian manufacturing firms.It also analyses the role of tangibili...Background:The purpose of the study is to understand the role of cash flow sensitivity to investment as a measure of financial constraints among listed Indian manufacturing firms.It also analyses the role of tangibility in alleviating financial constraints.Further,the role of other financial factors in investment decisions is explored.Methods:The study is conducted using the generalized method of moments(GMM)estimator on dynamic panel data for the period of(2009–2015)on 768 listed manufacturing firms.Results:The analysis finds that cash flow sensitivity is a valid measure of financial constraints in the Indian manufacturing sector.Results according to splitting criteria found that investment decisions of standalone firms are more sensitive to cash flow than group affiliated firms.Further,splitting the firms according to market capitalization and tangible net worth reveals a higher degree of cash flow sensitivity by firms with lower market capitalization and asset tangibility.The results for the effects of tangibility of assets on easing financial constraint were found significant only in the case of firms with low tangible net worth and medium market capitalization.Conclusions:The study confirms cash flow sensitivity to investment as a valid measure of financial constraints.It will confirm pooling of internal funds by financially constrained firms to accept profitable investment opportunities in future.Further,it also reports that asset tangibility eases the financial constraints faced by firms.展开更多
According to the size of the projector function to evaluate the merits of the program, Projection Pursuit method is applied to real estate investment decision-making by using the real coding based on Accelerating Gene...According to the size of the projector function to evaluate the merits of the program, Projection Pursuit method is applied to real estate investment decision-making by using the real coding based on Accelerating Genetic Algorithm (RAGA) to optimize the Projection Pursuit Classification (PPC) process and a wide range of indicators value was projected linearly. The results are reasonable and verified with an example. At the same time, the subjective of the target weight can be avoided. It provides decision-makers with comprehensive information on all the indicators of new ideas and new展开更多
This study investigates the role of default options in the relationship between trait anxiety,and decision-making styles and financial decisions.One hundred and ninety-four participants were divided into three groups ...This study investigates the role of default options in the relationship between trait anxiety,and decision-making styles and financial decisions.One hundred and ninety-four participants were divided into three groups and subjected to three different conditions.Under each experimental condition,they had to decide whether to accept or reject investment proposals.In the first group,they had been enrolled in investment plans by default(opt-out condition),in the second group,they had not been automatically enrolled in these plans(opt-in condition),and in the third group they had to choose whether to enroll or not(control condition).The results showed that the investment decisions of anxious,avoidant,rational and dependent individuals could be facilitated by default options.In conclusion,using default options as a“nudge”can support specific groups of people to improve their financial decisions.展开更多
Most studies on investment evaluation mainly focus on enterprise economic benefits only, without process operability and sustainability considered. In this paper, we suggest that investment evaluation in process indus...Most studies on investment evaluation mainly focus on enterprise economic benefits only, without process operability and sustainability considered. In this paper, we suggest that investment evaluation in process industries should be executed under three strategic objectives--enterprise benefits, social benefits and customer benefits. A systematic investment evaluation and decision-making method with a four-step procedure based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is proposed to evaluate various qualitative and quantitative elements with various criteria. At the first step, the decision hierarchy is constructed under the three strategic objectives. Second, pair-wise comparison is utilized to evaluate the weights of elements and criteria. Third, qualitative elements are quantified by pair-wise comparison and quantitative elements are re-scaled by a uniform criterion. At the last, the best choice is made through synthesizing values upward in the hierarchy. An investment decision support system (DSS) is developed based on Microsoft Excel, and applied to a retrofit investment of united fluid catalytic cracking(FCC) and liquefied gas separation process in a refinery plant.展开更多
Literature in finance and neurosciences shows that male and female differ in many relevant issues concerning financial decision investment. Here, we studied the EEG activity recorded while volunteers were playing a st...Literature in finance and neurosciences shows that male and female differ in many relevant issues concerning financial decision investment. Here, we studied the EEG activity recorded while volunteers were playing a stock trading game to investigate these gender differences. 20 males and 20 females made 100 trading decisions using a portfolio of 200 shares of 7 different companies. Males and females were equally successful in earning above the market. sLORETA was used to identify sources of EEG recorded 2 seconds before trading decision. Results showed that male and female used different sets of neuron to make equally successful financial decisions.展开更多
Using data from duo-teacher program, I use the mixed logit model and nested logit model to estimate the effect of expected lifetime income on students' human capital investment decision-making after nine-year comp...Using data from duo-teacher program, I use the mixed logit model and nested logit model to estimate the effect of expected lifetime income on students' human capital investment decision-making after nine-year compulsory education. The result of the mixed logit model shows that one percentage point increase of expected lifetime income will increase students' 3.98 percentage points' probability of choosing corresponding choice, while the nested logit model shows the marginal effect of 4.38. Fathers' educaiton, family income and students' academic performance have significantly positive effect of students' choice probalitiy of going to normal high school and accepting secondary vocational education, which is consistent with the previous literature.展开更多
The manager′s investment decisions is modeled when the manager is risk averse and has stock options as compensation. It is found that the strike price of options is crucial to the investment incentives of managers, a...The manager′s investment decisions is modeled when the manager is risk averse and has stock options as compensation. It is found that the strike price of options is crucial to the investment incentives of managers, and that the correct value, or interval of values, of managerial stock option strike price can bring stockholder and manager interests in agreement.展开更多
Agricultural investment project selection is a complex multi-criteria decision-making problem,as agricultural projects are easily influenced by various risk factors,and the evaluation information provided by decisionm...Agricultural investment project selection is a complex multi-criteria decision-making problem,as agricultural projects are easily influenced by various risk factors,and the evaluation information provided by decisionmakers usually involves uncertainty and inconsistency.Existing literature primarily employed direct preference elicitation methods to address such issues,necessitating a great cognitive effort on the part of decision-makers during evaluation,specifically,determining the weights of criteria.In this study,we propose an indirect preference elicitation method,known as a preference disaggregation method,to learn decision-maker preference models fromdecision examples.To enhance evaluation ease,decision-makers merely need to compare pairs of alternatives with which they are familiar,also known as reference alternatives.Probabilistic linguistic preference relations are employed to account for the presence of incomplete and uncertain information in such pairwise comparisons.To address the inconsistency among a group of decision-makers,we develop a pair of 0-1mixed integer programming models that consider both the semantics of linguistic terms and the belief degrees of decision-makers.Finally,we conduct a case study and comparative analysis.Results reveal the effectiveness of the proposed model in solving agricultural investment project selection problems with uncertain and inconsistent decision information.展开更多
This study aimed to evaluate the components of a fintech ecosystem for distributed energy investments.A new decision-making model was created using multiple stepwise weight assessment ratio analysis and elimination an...This study aimed to evaluate the components of a fintech ecosystem for distributed energy investments.A new decision-making model was created using multiple stepwise weight assessment ratio analysis and elimination and choice translating reality techniques based on quantum spherical fuzzy sets.First,in this model,the criteria for distributed energy investment necessities were weighted.Second,we ranked the components of the fintech ecosystem for distributed energy investments.The main contribution of this study is that appropriate strategies can be presented to design effective fintech ecosystems to increase distributed energy investments,by considering an original fuzzy decision-making model.Capacity is the most critical issue with respect to distributed energy investment necessities because it has the greatest weight(0.261).Pricing is another significant factor for this condition,with a weight of 0.254.Results of the ranking of the components of the fintech ecosystem indicate that end users are of the greatest importance for the effectiveness of this system.It is necessary to develop new techniques for the energy storage process,especially with technological developments,to prevent disruptions in energy production capacity.In addition,customers’expectations should be considered for the development of effective and user-friendly financial products that are preferred by a wider audience.This would have a positive effect on fintech ecosystem performance.展开更多
Using the improved prospect theory with the linear transformations of rewarding good and punishing bad(RGPBIT),a new investment ranking model for power grid construction projects(PGCPs)is proposed.Given the uncertaint...Using the improved prospect theory with the linear transformations of rewarding good and punishing bad(RGPBIT),a new investment ranking model for power grid construction projects(PGCPs)is proposed.Given the uncertainty of each index value under the market environment,fuzzy numbers are used to describe qualitative indicators and interval numbers are used to describe quantitative ones.Taking into account decision-maker’s subjective risk attitudes,a multi-criteria decision-making(MCDM)method based on improved prospect theory is proposed.First,the[−1,1]RGPBIT operator is proposed to normalize the original data,to obtain the best andworst schemes of PGCPs.Furthermore,the correlation coefficients between interval/fuzzy numbers and the best/worst schemes are defined and introduced to the prospect theory to improve its value function and loss function,and the positive and negative prospect value matrices of the project are obtained.Then,the optimization model with the maximum comprehensive prospect value is constructed,the optimal attribute weight is determined,and the PGCPs are ranked accordingly.Taking four PGCPs of the IEEERTS-79 node system as examples,an illustration of the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method is provided.展开更多
基金Project supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities and Southwest Minzu University(Grant No.2022SJQ002)。
文摘The kinetic theory is employed to analyze influence of agent competence and psychological factors on investment decision-making.We assume that the wealth held by agents in the financial market is non-negative,and agents set their own investment strategies.The herding behavior is considered when analyzing the impact of an agent's psychological factors on investment decision-making.A nonlinear Boltzmann model containing herding behavior,agent competence and irrational behavior is employed to investigate investment decision-making.To characterize the agent's irrational behavior,we utilize a value function which includes current and ideal-investment decisions to describe the agent's irrational behavior.Employing the asymptotic procedure,we obtain the Fokker-Planck equation from the Boltzmann equation.Numerical results and the stationary solution of the obtained Fokker-Planck equation illustrate how herding behavior,agent competence,psychological factors,and irrational behavior affect investment decision-making,i.e.,herding behavior has both advantages and disadvantages for investment decision-making,and the agent's competence to invest helps the agent to increase income and to reduce loss.
文摘Investment decision is a traditional multi-attribute decision making (MADM) problem since it has many uncertainty factors and incomplete information such as investment value, cost, sales, etc. D numbers theory is a useful tool to deal with uncertainty factors and incomplete information. In this paper, interval number and D numbers theory are revealed in the uncertain factor and incomplete information of investment decision. The weights of uncertain factors are calculated using entropy weight method. Thus, a new MADM model for investment decision based on D numbers theory is proposed. Numerical example is used to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed method.
文摘Decision makers’ choices are often influenced by visual background information. This study uses open-ended equity funds in Taiwan to investigate three well-known optimal portfolio models, including the mean-variance, maximin, and minimization of mean absolute deviation. The optimal portfolios are then visualized on Decision Balls to assist investors in making investment decisions. By observing the Decision Balls, investors can see the optimal portfolios, compare the optimal weights provided by the different models, view the cluster of funds, and even find substitute funds if preferred funds are not available.
文摘The investment decision making of Project Gang, the projects that are associated with one another on economy and technique, is studied. In order to find out the best Scheme that can make the maximum profit, a dynamic programming algorithm on the investment decision making of Project Gang is brought forward, and this algorithm can find out the best Scheme of distributing the m resources to the n Items in the time of O(m 2 n).
文摘One of the remarkable characteristics of the current development of China's national economy is the increase of uncertainties, which makes the traditional method more and more unsuitable for the current economic development in the real estate investment process. Based on the option game theory, the investment decision making of real estate is analyzed here, the investment optimization mathematic model established, and Nash Equilibrium discussed. Through case studies, we analyze the application of game option in the real estate, which is put under symmetrical duopoly. The conclusions will contribute to both the theory on and practice of the present investment in the real estate enterprise.
文摘There are many kinds of real options,which are valuable,in each phase of the lifetime of an information technology(IT)project.However,in the current IT investment decision theory,real options that embedded in IT projects are not considered. In this paper, the process of IT project decision and implementation is fully analyzed, the real options that may be embedded in an IT project are identified, and a real option analysis (ROA) method is proposed for evaluation of an IT project under uncertain business environment. ROA employs Black-Scholes expansion model and cancels the assumption that the cost of project is certain. The numerical example manifests that the ROA can better evaluate IT project and select the IT investment alternative. Finally, a road map is provided to help selecting the suitable evaluation method to make IT investment decision.
基金This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public,commercial,or not-for-profit sectors。
文摘Background:The purpose of the study is to understand the role of cash flow sensitivity to investment as a measure of financial constraints among listed Indian manufacturing firms.It also analyses the role of tangibility in alleviating financial constraints.Further,the role of other financial factors in investment decisions is explored.Methods:The study is conducted using the generalized method of moments(GMM)estimator on dynamic panel data for the period of(2009–2015)on 768 listed manufacturing firms.Results:The analysis finds that cash flow sensitivity is a valid measure of financial constraints in the Indian manufacturing sector.Results according to splitting criteria found that investment decisions of standalone firms are more sensitive to cash flow than group affiliated firms.Further,splitting the firms according to market capitalization and tangible net worth reveals a higher degree of cash flow sensitivity by firms with lower market capitalization and asset tangibility.The results for the effects of tangibility of assets on easing financial constraint were found significant only in the case of firms with low tangible net worth and medium market capitalization.Conclusions:The study confirms cash flow sensitivity to investment as a valid measure of financial constraints.It will confirm pooling of internal funds by financially constrained firms to accept profitable investment opportunities in future.Further,it also reports that asset tangibility eases the financial constraints faced by firms.
文摘According to the size of the projector function to evaluate the merits of the program, Projection Pursuit method is applied to real estate investment decision-making by using the real coding based on Accelerating Genetic Algorithm (RAGA) to optimize the Projection Pursuit Classification (PPC) process and a wide range of indicators value was projected linearly. The results are reasonable and verified with an example. At the same time, the subjective of the target weight can be avoided. It provides decision-makers with comprehensive information on all the indicators of new ideas and new
文摘This study investigates the role of default options in the relationship between trait anxiety,and decision-making styles and financial decisions.One hundred and ninety-four participants were divided into three groups and subjected to three different conditions.Under each experimental condition,they had to decide whether to accept or reject investment proposals.In the first group,they had been enrolled in investment plans by default(opt-out condition),in the second group,they had not been automatically enrolled in these plans(opt-in condition),and in the third group they had to choose whether to enroll or not(control condition).The results showed that the investment decisions of anxious,avoidant,rational and dependent individuals could be facilitated by default options.In conclusion,using default options as a“nudge”can support specific groups of people to improve their financial decisions.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 79931000) and The State Major Basic Research Development Program (G20000263).
文摘Most studies on investment evaluation mainly focus on enterprise economic benefits only, without process operability and sustainability considered. In this paper, we suggest that investment evaluation in process industries should be executed under three strategic objectives--enterprise benefits, social benefits and customer benefits. A systematic investment evaluation and decision-making method with a four-step procedure based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is proposed to evaluate various qualitative and quantitative elements with various criteria. At the first step, the decision hierarchy is constructed under the three strategic objectives. Second, pair-wise comparison is utilized to evaluate the weights of elements and criteria. Third, qualitative elements are quantified by pair-wise comparison and quantitative elements are re-scaled by a uniform criterion. At the last, the best choice is made through synthesizing values upward in the hierarchy. An investment decision support system (DSS) is developed based on Microsoft Excel, and applied to a retrofit investment of united fluid catalytic cracking(FCC) and liquefied gas separation process in a refinery plant.
文摘Literature in finance and neurosciences shows that male and female differ in many relevant issues concerning financial decision investment. Here, we studied the EEG activity recorded while volunteers were playing a stock trading game to investigate these gender differences. 20 males and 20 females made 100 trading decisions using a portfolio of 200 shares of 7 different companies. Males and females were equally successful in earning above the market. sLORETA was used to identify sources of EEG recorded 2 seconds before trading decision. Results showed that male and female used different sets of neuron to make equally successful financial decisions.
文摘Using data from duo-teacher program, I use the mixed logit model and nested logit model to estimate the effect of expected lifetime income on students' human capital investment decision-making after nine-year compulsory education. The result of the mixed logit model shows that one percentage point increase of expected lifetime income will increase students' 3.98 percentage points' probability of choosing corresponding choice, while the nested logit model shows the marginal effect of 4.38. Fathers' educaiton, family income and students' academic performance have significantly positive effect of students' choice probalitiy of going to normal high school and accepting secondary vocational education, which is consistent with the previous literature.
文摘The manager′s investment decisions is modeled when the manager is risk averse and has stock options as compensation. It is found that the strike price of options is crucial to the investment incentives of managers, and that the correct value, or interval of values, of managerial stock option strike price can bring stockholder and manager interests in agreement.
文摘Agricultural investment project selection is a complex multi-criteria decision-making problem,as agricultural projects are easily influenced by various risk factors,and the evaluation information provided by decisionmakers usually involves uncertainty and inconsistency.Existing literature primarily employed direct preference elicitation methods to address such issues,necessitating a great cognitive effort on the part of decision-makers during evaluation,specifically,determining the weights of criteria.In this study,we propose an indirect preference elicitation method,known as a preference disaggregation method,to learn decision-maker preference models fromdecision examples.To enhance evaluation ease,decision-makers merely need to compare pairs of alternatives with which they are familiar,also known as reference alternatives.Probabilistic linguistic preference relations are employed to account for the presence of incomplete and uncertain information in such pairwise comparisons.To address the inconsistency among a group of decision-makers,we develop a pair of 0-1mixed integer programming models that consider both the semantics of linguistic terms and the belief degrees of decision-makers.Finally,we conduct a case study and comparative analysis.Results reveal the effectiveness of the proposed model in solving agricultural investment project selection problems with uncertain and inconsistent decision information.
文摘This study aimed to evaluate the components of a fintech ecosystem for distributed energy investments.A new decision-making model was created using multiple stepwise weight assessment ratio analysis and elimination and choice translating reality techniques based on quantum spherical fuzzy sets.First,in this model,the criteria for distributed energy investment necessities were weighted.Second,we ranked the components of the fintech ecosystem for distributed energy investments.The main contribution of this study is that appropriate strategies can be presented to design effective fintech ecosystems to increase distributed energy investments,by considering an original fuzzy decision-making model.Capacity is the most critical issue with respect to distributed energy investment necessities because it has the greatest weight(0.261).Pricing is another significant factor for this condition,with a weight of 0.254.Results of the ranking of the components of the fintech ecosystem indicate that end users are of the greatest importance for the effectiveness of this system.It is necessary to develop new techniques for the energy storage process,especially with technological developments,to prevent disruptions in energy production capacity.In addition,customers’expectations should be considered for the development of effective and user-friendly financial products that are preferred by a wider audience.This would have a positive effect on fintech ecosystem performance.
文摘Using the improved prospect theory with the linear transformations of rewarding good and punishing bad(RGPBIT),a new investment ranking model for power grid construction projects(PGCPs)is proposed.Given the uncertainty of each index value under the market environment,fuzzy numbers are used to describe qualitative indicators and interval numbers are used to describe quantitative ones.Taking into account decision-maker’s subjective risk attitudes,a multi-criteria decision-making(MCDM)method based on improved prospect theory is proposed.First,the[−1,1]RGPBIT operator is proposed to normalize the original data,to obtain the best andworst schemes of PGCPs.Furthermore,the correlation coefficients between interval/fuzzy numbers and the best/worst schemes are defined and introduced to the prospect theory to improve its value function and loss function,and the positive and negative prospect value matrices of the project are obtained.Then,the optimization model with the maximum comprehensive prospect value is constructed,the optimal attribute weight is determined,and the PGCPs are ranked accordingly.Taking four PGCPs of the IEEERTS-79 node system as examples,an illustration of the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method is provided.
