A fragility calculation scheme is estabtished in this paper for porcelain-type equipments subjected to random earthquake ground motions. All steps of the method are illustrated by the seismic damage analysis of GW4-11...A fragility calculation scheme is estabtished in this paper for porcelain-type equipments subjected to random earthquake ground motions. All steps of the method are illustrated by the seismic damage analysis of GW4-110 disconnect switch. The model of the equipment is built applying the finite element method with flexible joints, and the seismic response of the equipment is analyzed using elastic time history method. On the base, according to the strength damage index and Monte-Carlo Method, the seismic damage ratios are counted and the seismic fragility curves are presented. Then the seismic damage of GW4-110 disconnect switch can be predicted.展开更多
In this research the fault parameters causing the September 27, 2010 Kazeron Earthquake with a magnitude of MW = 5.8 (BHRC) were determined using the random finite fault method. The parameters were recorded by 27 acce...In this research the fault parameters causing the September 27, 2010 Kazeron Earthquake with a magnitude of MW = 5.8 (BHRC) were determined using the random finite fault method. The parameters were recorded by 27 accelerometer stations. Simulation of strong ground motion is very useful for areas about which little information and data are available. Considering the distribution of earthquake records and the existing relationships, for the fault plane causing the September 27, 2010 Kazeron Earthquake the length of the fault along the strike direction and the width of the fault along the dip direction were determined to be 10 km and 7 km, respectively. Moreover, 10 elements were assumed along the length and 7 were assumed along the width of the plane. Research results indicated that the epicenter of the earthquake had a geographic coordination of 29.88N - 51.77E, which complied with the results reported by the Institute of Geophysics Tehran University (IGTU). In addition, the strike and dip measured for the fault causing the Kazeron Earthquake were 27 and 50 degrees, respectively. Therefore, the causing fault was almost parallel to and coincident with the fault. There are magnetic discontinuities on the analytical signal map with a north-south strike followed by a northwest-southeast strike. The discontinuities are consistent with the trend of Kazeron fault but are several kilometers away from it. Therefore, they show the fault depth at a distance of 12 km from the fault surface.展开更多
This paper develops a trigonometric-basis-fimction based Karhunen-Loeve （KL） expansion for simulating random earthquake excitations with known covariance functions. The methods for determining the number of the KL t...This paper develops a trigonometric-basis-fimction based Karhunen-Loeve （KL） expansion for simulating random earthquake excitations with known covariance functions. The methods for determining the number of the KL terms and defining the involved random variables are described in detail. The simplified form of the KL expansion is given, whereby the relationship between the KL expansion and the spectral representation method is investigated and revealed. The KL expansion is of high efficiency for simulating long-term earthquake excitations in the sense that it needs a minimum number of random variables, as compared with the spectral representation method. Numerical examples demonstrate the convergence and accuracy of the KL expansion for simulating two commonly-used random earthquake excitation models and estimating linear and nonlinear random responses to the random excitations.展开更多
A simplified Olami-Feder-Christensen model on a random network has been studied. We propose a new toppling rule -- when there is an unstable site toppling, the energy of the site is redistributed to its nearest neighb...A simplified Olami-Feder-Christensen model on a random network has been studied. We propose a new toppling rule -- when there is an unstable site toppling, the energy of the site is redistributed to its nearest neighbors randomly not averagely. The simulation results indicate that the model displays self-organized criticality when the system is conservative, and the avalanche size probability distribution of the system obeys finite size scaling. When the system is nonconservative, the model does not display scaling behavior. Simulation results of our model with different nearest neighbors q is also compared, which indicates that the spatial topology does not alter the critical behavior of the system.展开更多
We consider the earthquake model on a random graph. A detailed analysis of the probability distribution of the size of the avalanches will be given. The model with different inhomogeneities is studied in order to comp...We consider the earthquake model on a random graph. A detailed analysis of the probability distribution of the size of the avalanches will be given. The model with different inhomogeneities is studied in order to compare the critical behavior of different systems. The results indicate that with the increase of the inhomogeneities, the avalanche exponents reduce, i.e., the different numbers of defects cause different critical behaviors of the system. This is virtually ascribed to the dynamical perturbation.展开更多
A kind of method of modal identification subject to ambient excitation is presented. A new synthesis stationary signal based on structural response wavelet transform and wavelet coefficient processes co-integration is...A kind of method of modal identification subject to ambient excitation is presented. A new synthesis stationary signal based on structural response wavelet transform and wavelet coefficient processes co-integration is obtained. The new signal instead of structural response is used in identifying the modal parameters of a non- stationary system, combined with the method of modal identification under stationary random excitation-the NExT method and the adjusted continuous least square method. The numerical results show that the method can eliminate the non-stationarity of structural response subject to non-stationary random excitation to a great extent, and is highly precise and robust.展开更多
For exploring the aftershock occurrence process of the 2008 Wenchuan strong earthquake, the spatio-temporal point pattern analysis method is employed to study the sequences of aflershocks with magnitude M≥4.0, M≥4.5...For exploring the aftershock occurrence process of the 2008 Wenchuan strong earthquake, the spatio-temporal point pattern analysis method is employed to study the sequences of aflershocks with magnitude M≥4.0, M≥4.5, and M≥5.0. It is found that these data exhibit the spatio-temporal clustering on a certain distance scale and on a certain time scale. In particular, the space-time interaction obviously strengthens when the distance is less than 60 km and the time is less than 260 h for the first two aftershock sequences; however, it becomes strong when the distance scale is less than 80 km and the time scale is less than 150 h for the last aftershock sequence. The completely spatial randomness analysis on the data regardless of time component shows that the spatial clustering of the aftershocks gradually strengthens on the condition that the distance is less than 60 km. The results are valuable for exploring the occurrence rules of the Wenchuan strong earthquake and for predicting the aftershocks.展开更多
In 1997 - 2003, 27 earthquakes with M≥ 5.0 occurred in the Jiashi-Bachu area of Xinjiang. It was a rare strong earthquake swarm activity. The earthquake swarm has three time segments of activity with different magnit...In 1997 - 2003, 27 earthquakes with M≥ 5.0 occurred in the Jiashi-Bachu area of Xinjiang. It was a rare strong earthquake swarm activity. The earthquake swarm has three time segments of activity with different magnitudes in the years 1997, 1998 and 2003. In different time segments, the seismic activity showed strengthenin-qguiet changes in various degrees before earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0. In order to delimitate effectively the precursory meaning of the clustering （strengthening） quiet change in sequence and to seek the time criterion for impending prediction, the nonlinear characteristics of seismic activity have been used to analyze the time structure characteristics of the earthquake swarm sequence, and further to forecast the development tendency of earthquake sequences in the future. Using the sequence catalogue recorded by the Kashi Station, and taking the earthquakes with Ms≥ 5.0 in the sequence as the starting point and the next earthquake with Ms = 5.0 as the end, statistical analysis has been performed on the time structure relations of the earthquake sequence in different stages. The main results are as follows： （1） Before the major earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0 in the swarm sequence, the time variation coefficient （δ-value） has abnormal demonstrations to different degrees. （2） Within 10 days after δ= 1, occurrence of earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0 in the swarm is very possible. （3） The time variation coefficient has three types of change. （4） The change process before earthquakes with M5.0 is similar to that before earthquakes with M6.0, with little difference in the threshold value. In the earthquake swarm sequence, it is difficult to delimitate accurately the attribute of the current sequences （foreshock or aftershock sequence） and to judge the magnitude of the follow-up earthquake by δ-value. We can only make the judgment that earthquakes with M5.0 are likely to occur in the sequence. （5） The critical clustering characteristics of the sequence are hierarchical. Only corresponding to a certain magnitude can the sequence have the variation state of critical clustering. （6） The coefficient of the time variation has a clear meaning in physics. After the clustering-quiet state of earthquake activity has appeared, it can describe clearly the randomness of the seismogenic system. Furthermore, it can efficiently clarify whether or not the clustering quiescence variation is of some prognostic meaning. In the case that the earthquake frequency attenuation is essentially normal （h 〉 1 ） and there is no remarkable clustering-quiescence state, it is still possible to discover the abnormal change of the sequence from the time variation coefficient. On the contrary, in the later period of swarm activity, after the appearance of many seismic quiescence phenomena, this coefficient did not appear abnormally, even when h 〈 1, suggesting that the δ-value diagnosis is more universal.展开更多
A probability forecast method of earthquake magnitude, based on the earthquake frequency magnitude relation and the model of Bernoulli′s random independent trial, is applied to the earthquake risk assessmen...A probability forecast method of earthquake magnitude, based on the earthquake frequency magnitude relation and the model of Bernoulli′s random independent trial, is applied to the earthquake risk assessment of seismic zones in China's Mainland before A.D.2005 in the paper. The forecasting results indicate that the probabilities of earthquake occurrence with magnitude 5 in seismic zones before 2005 are estimated to be over 0.7 in common and 0.8 in most zones; and from 0.5 to 0.7 with M =6; the maximum probability of earthquake occurrence with magnitude 7 is estimated at 0.858, which is also expected in Shanxi seismic zone. In west China's Mainland, earthquakes with magnitude 6 are expected to occur in most seismic zones with high probability (over 0.9 in general) ; the relatively high probabilities of earthquake occurrence (more than 0.7) with magnitude 7 are expected in the seismic zones surrounding the Qinghai Tibet plateau and south Tianshan seismic zone. A discussion about the result confidence and the relationship between the estimated probability and the possible annual rate of earthquake occurrence is made in the last part of the paper.展开更多
This paper proposes a new deterministic envelope function to define non-stationary stochastic processes modeling seismic ground motion accelerations. The proposed envelope function modulates the amplitude of the time ...This paper proposes a new deterministic envelope function to define non-stationary stochastic processes modeling seismic ground motion accelerations. The proposed envelope function modulates the amplitude of the time history of a stationary filtered white noise to properly represent the amplitude variations in the time histories of the ground motion accelerations. This function depends on two basic seismological indices: the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and the kind of soil. These indices are widely used in earthquake engineering. Firstly, the envelope function is defined analytically from the Saragoni Hart’s function. Then its parameters are identified for a set of selected real records of earthquake collected in PEER Next Generation Attenuation database. Finally, functions of the parameters depending on the Peak Ground Acceleration and the kind of soil are defined from these identified values of the parameters of the envelope function through a regression analysis.展开更多
This work applies non-stationary random processes to resilience of power distribution under severe weather. Power distribution, the edge of the energy infrastructure, is susceptible to external hazards from severe wea...This work applies non-stationary random processes to resilience of power distribution under severe weather. Power distribution, the edge of the energy infrastructure, is susceptible to external hazards from severe weather. Large-scale power failures often occur, resulting in millions of people without electricity for days. However, the problem of large-scale power failure, recovery and resilience has not been formulated rigorously nor studied systematically. This work studies the resilience of power distribution from three aspects. First, we derive non-stationary random processes to model large-scale failures and recoveries. Transient Little’s Law then provides a simple approximation of the entire life cycle of failure and recovery through a queue at the network-level. Second, we define time-varying resilience based on the non-stationary model. The resilience metric characterizes the ability of power distribution to remain operational and recover rapidly upon failures. Third, we apply the non-stationary model and the resilience metric to large-scale power failures caused by Hurricane Ike. We use the real data from the electric grid to learn time-varying model parameters and the resilience metric. Our results show non-stationary evolution of failure rates and recovery times, and how the network resilience deviates from that of normal operation during the hurricane.展开更多
Predicting the time-varying auto-spectral density of a spacecraft in high-altitude orbits requires an accurate model for the non-stationary random vibration signals with densely spaced modal frequency. The traditional...Predicting the time-varying auto-spectral density of a spacecraft in high-altitude orbits requires an accurate model for the non-stationary random vibration signals with densely spaced modal frequency. The traditional time-varying algorithm limits prediction accuracy, thus affecting a number of operational decisions. To solve this problem, a time-varying auto regressive （TVAR） model based on the process neural network （PNN） and the empirical mode decomposition （EMD） is proposed. The time-varying system is tracked on-line by establishing a time-varying parameter model, and then the relevant parameter spectrum is obtained. Firstly, the EMD method is utilized to decompose the signal into several intrinsic mode functions （IMFs）. Then for each IMF, the PNN is established and the time-varying auto-spectral density is obtained. Finally, the time-frequency distribution of the signals can be reconstructed by linear superposition. The simulation and the analytical results from an example demonstrate that this approach possesses simplicity, effectiveness, and feasibility, as well as higher frequency resolution.展开更多
基金supported by the Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality (Grant No.04JC14035)
文摘A fragility calculation scheme is estabtished in this paper for porcelain-type equipments subjected to random earthquake ground motions. All steps of the method are illustrated by the seismic damage analysis of GW4-110 disconnect switch. The model of the equipment is built applying the finite element method with flexible joints, and the seismic response of the equipment is analyzed using elastic time history method. On the base, according to the strength damage index and Monte-Carlo Method, the seismic damage ratios are counted and the seismic fragility curves are presented. Then the seismic damage of GW4-110 disconnect switch can be predicted.
文摘In this research the fault parameters causing the September 27, 2010 Kazeron Earthquake with a magnitude of MW = 5.8 (BHRC) were determined using the random finite fault method. The parameters were recorded by 27 accelerometer stations. Simulation of strong ground motion is very useful for areas about which little information and data are available. Considering the distribution of earthquake records and the existing relationships, for the fault plane causing the September 27, 2010 Kazeron Earthquake the length of the fault along the strike direction and the width of the fault along the dip direction were determined to be 10 km and 7 km, respectively. Moreover, 10 elements were assumed along the length and 7 were assumed along the width of the plane. Research results indicated that the epicenter of the earthquake had a geographic coordination of 29.88N - 51.77E, which complied with the results reported by the Institute of Geophysics Tehran University (IGTU). In addition, the strike and dip measured for the fault causing the Kazeron Earthquake were 27 and 50 degrees, respectively. Therefore, the causing fault was almost parallel to and coincident with the fault. There are magnetic discontinuities on the analytical signal map with a north-south strike followed by a northwest-southeast strike. The discontinuities are consistent with the trend of Kazeron fault but are several kilometers away from it. Therefore, they show the fault depth at a distance of 12 km from the fault surface.
文摘This paper develops a trigonometric-basis-fimction based Karhunen-Loeve （KL） expansion for simulating random earthquake excitations with known covariance functions. The methods for determining the number of the KL terms and defining the involved random variables are described in detail. The simplified form of the KL expansion is given, whereby the relationship between the KL expansion and the spectral representation method is investigated and revealed. The KL expansion is of high efficiency for simulating long-term earthquake excitations in the sense that it needs a minimum number of random variables, as compared with the spectral representation method. Numerical examples demonstrate the convergence and accuracy of the KL expansion for simulating two commonly-used random earthquake excitation models and estimating linear and nonlinear random responses to the random excitations.
文摘A simplified Olami-Feder-Christensen model on a random network has been studied. We propose a new toppling rule -- when there is an unstable site toppling, the energy of the site is redistributed to its nearest neighbors randomly not averagely. The simulation results indicate that the model displays self-organized criticality when the system is conservative, and the avalanche size probability distribution of the system obeys finite size scaling. When the system is nonconservative, the model does not display scaling behavior. Simulation results of our model with different nearest neighbors q is also compared, which indicates that the spatial topology does not alter the critical behavior of the system.
基金The project supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 50272022
文摘We consider the earthquake model on a random graph. A detailed analysis of the probability distribution of the size of the avalanches will be given. The model with different inhomogeneities is studied in order to compare the critical behavior of different systems. The results indicate that with the increase of the inhomogeneities, the avalanche exponents reduce, i.e., the different numbers of defects cause different critical behaviors of the system. This is virtually ascribed to the dynamical perturbation.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No50278017)
文摘A kind of method of modal identification subject to ambient excitation is presented. A new synthesis stationary signal based on structural response wavelet transform and wavelet coefficient processes co-integration is obtained. The new signal instead of structural response is used in identifying the modal parameters of a non- stationary system, combined with the method of modal identification under stationary random excitation-the NExT method and the adjusted continuous least square method. The numerical results show that the method can eliminate the non-stationarity of structural response subject to non-stationary random excitation to a great extent, and is highly precise and robust.
基金supported by the Key Project of Chinese National Programs for Fun-damental Research and Development (973 program) (2008CB425704)
文摘For exploring the aftershock occurrence process of the 2008 Wenchuan strong earthquake, the spatio-temporal point pattern analysis method is employed to study the sequences of aflershocks with magnitude M≥4.0, M≥4.5, and M≥5.0. It is found that these data exhibit the spatio-temporal clustering on a certain distance scale and on a certain time scale. In particular, the space-time interaction obviously strengthens when the distance is less than 60 km and the time is less than 260 h for the first two aftershock sequences; however, it becomes strong when the distance scale is less than 80 km and the time scale is less than 150 h for the last aftershock sequence. The completely spatial randomness analysis on the data regardless of time component shows that the spatial clustering of the aftershocks gradually strengthens on the condition that the distance is less than 60 km. The results are valuable for exploring the occurrence rules of the Wenchuan strong earthquake and for predicting the aftershocks.
基金a sub-project entitled"Strong Earthquake Trend Assessment of the Jiashi-Bachu and the Tianshan,Xinjiang Areas (Grant No.200333116-06)"under the project of "The MS6.8 Jiashi-Bachu, Xinjiang Earthquakesthe Strong Earthquake Trendin the Future" of the key science and technology research program of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region
文摘In 1997 - 2003, 27 earthquakes with M≥ 5.0 occurred in the Jiashi-Bachu area of Xinjiang. It was a rare strong earthquake swarm activity. The earthquake swarm has three time segments of activity with different magnitudes in the years 1997, 1998 and 2003. In different time segments, the seismic activity showed strengthenin-qguiet changes in various degrees before earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0. In order to delimitate effectively the precursory meaning of the clustering （strengthening） quiet change in sequence and to seek the time criterion for impending prediction, the nonlinear characteristics of seismic activity have been used to analyze the time structure characteristics of the earthquake swarm sequence, and further to forecast the development tendency of earthquake sequences in the future. Using the sequence catalogue recorded by the Kashi Station, and taking the earthquakes with Ms≥ 5.0 in the sequence as the starting point and the next earthquake with Ms = 5.0 as the end, statistical analysis has been performed on the time structure relations of the earthquake sequence in different stages. The main results are as follows： （1） Before the major earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0 in the swarm sequence, the time variation coefficient （δ-value） has abnormal demonstrations to different degrees. （2） Within 10 days after δ= 1, occurrence of earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0 in the swarm is very possible. （3） The time variation coefficient has three types of change. （4） The change process before earthquakes with M5.0 is similar to that before earthquakes with M6.0, with little difference in the threshold value. In the earthquake swarm sequence, it is difficult to delimitate accurately the attribute of the current sequences （foreshock or aftershock sequence） and to judge the magnitude of the follow-up earthquake by δ-value. We can only make the judgment that earthquakes with M5.0 are likely to occur in the sequence. （5） The critical clustering characteristics of the sequence are hierarchical. Only corresponding to a certain magnitude can the sequence have the variation state of critical clustering. （6） The coefficient of the time variation has a clear meaning in physics. After the clustering-quiet state of earthquake activity has appeared, it can describe clearly the randomness of the seismogenic system. Furthermore, it can efficiently clarify whether or not the clustering quiescence variation is of some prognostic meaning. In the case that the earthquake frequency attenuation is essentially normal （h 〉 1 ） and there is no remarkable clustering-quiescence state, it is still possible to discover the abnormal change of the sequence from the time variation coefficient. On the contrary, in the later period of swarm activity, after the appearance of many seismic quiescence phenomena, this coefficient did not appear abnormally, even when h 〈 1, suggesting that the δ-value diagnosis is more universal.
文摘A probability forecast method of earthquake magnitude, based on the earthquake frequency magnitude relation and the model of Bernoulli′s random independent trial, is applied to the earthquake risk assessment of seismic zones in China's Mainland before A.D.2005 in the paper. The forecasting results indicate that the probabilities of earthquake occurrence with magnitude 5 in seismic zones before 2005 are estimated to be over 0.7 in common and 0.8 in most zones; and from 0.5 to 0.7 with M =6; the maximum probability of earthquake occurrence with magnitude 7 is estimated at 0.858, which is also expected in Shanxi seismic zone. In west China's Mainland, earthquakes with magnitude 6 are expected to occur in most seismic zones with high probability (over 0.9 in general) ; the relatively high probabilities of earthquake occurrence (more than 0.7) with magnitude 7 are expected in the seismic zones surrounding the Qinghai Tibet plateau and south Tianshan seismic zone. A discussion about the result confidence and the relationship between the estimated probability and the possible annual rate of earthquake occurrence is made in the last part of the paper.
文摘This paper proposes a new deterministic envelope function to define non-stationary stochastic processes modeling seismic ground motion accelerations. The proposed envelope function modulates the amplitude of the time history of a stationary filtered white noise to properly represent the amplitude variations in the time histories of the ground motion accelerations. This function depends on two basic seismological indices: the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and the kind of soil. These indices are widely used in earthquake engineering. Firstly, the envelope function is defined analytically from the Saragoni Hart’s function. Then its parameters are identified for a set of selected real records of earthquake collected in PEER Next Generation Attenuation database. Finally, functions of the parameters depending on the Peak Ground Acceleration and the kind of soil are defined from these identified values of the parameters of the envelope function through a regression analysis.
文摘This work applies non-stationary random processes to resilience of power distribution under severe weather. Power distribution, the edge of the energy infrastructure, is susceptible to external hazards from severe weather. Large-scale power failures often occur, resulting in millions of people without electricity for days. However, the problem of large-scale power failure, recovery and resilience has not been formulated rigorously nor studied systematically. This work studies the resilience of power distribution from three aspects. First, we derive non-stationary random processes to model large-scale failures and recoveries. Transient Little’s Law then provides a simple approximation of the entire life cycle of failure and recovery through a queue at the network-level. Second, we define time-varying resilience based on the non-stationary model. The resilience metric characterizes the ability of power distribution to remain operational and recover rapidly upon failures. Third, we apply the non-stationary model and the resilience metric to large-scale power failures caused by Hurricane Ike. We use the real data from the electric grid to learn time-varying model parameters and the resilience metric. Our results show non-stationary evolution of failure rates and recovery times, and how the network resilience deviates from that of normal operation during the hurricane.
基金Aeronautical Science Foundation of China (20071551016)
文摘Predicting the time-varying auto-spectral density of a spacecraft in high-altitude orbits requires an accurate model for the non-stationary random vibration signals with densely spaced modal frequency. The traditional time-varying algorithm limits prediction accuracy, thus affecting a number of operational decisions. To solve this problem, a time-varying auto regressive （TVAR） model based on the process neural network （PNN） and the empirical mode decomposition （EMD） is proposed. The time-varying system is tracked on-line by establishing a time-varying parameter model, and then the relevant parameter spectrum is obtained. Firstly, the EMD method is utilized to decompose the signal into several intrinsic mode functions （IMFs）. Then for each IMF, the PNN is established and the time-varying auto-spectral density is obtained. Finally, the time-frequency distribution of the signals can be reconstructed by linear superposition. The simulation and the analytical results from an example demonstrate that this approach possesses simplicity, effectiveness, and feasibility, as well as higher frequency resolution.
