This paper proposes a new methodology to select an optimal threshold level to be used in the peak over threshold （POT） method for the prediction of short-term distributions of load extremes of offshore wind turbines...This paper proposes a new methodology to select an optimal threshold level to be used in the peak over threshold （POT） method for the prediction of short-term distributions of load extremes of offshore wind turbines. Such an optimal threshold level is found based on the estimation of the variance-to-mean ratio for the occurrence of peak values, which characterizes the Poisson assumption. A generalized Pareto distribution is then fitted to the extracted peaks over the optimal threshold level and the distribution parameters are estimated by the method of the maximum spacing estimation. This methodology is applied to estimate the short-term distributions of load extremes of the blade bending moment and the tower base bending moment at the mudline of a monopile-supported 5MW offshore wind turbine as an example. The accuracy of the POT method using the optimal threshold level is shown to be better, in terms of the distribution fitting, than that of the POT methods using empirical threshold levels. The comparisons among the short-term extreme response values predicted by using the POT method with the optimal threshold levels and with the empirical threshold levels and by using direct simulation results further substantiate the validity of the proposed new methodology.展开更多
With noticing an increasing number of failure events for offshore structures in the present days, it is now realized that modeling the marine environment especially for exceptional environmental conditions is quite im...With noticing an increasing number of failure events for offshore structures in the present days, it is now realized that modeling the marine environment especially for exceptional environmental conditions is quite important. It is recognized that a possible improvement in the traditional modeling of environmental characteristics, which are the basis for the load models for structural analysis and design, may be needed. In this paper, the seasonal and directional varying properties in modeling the ocean parameter, the wave height, are studied. The peak over threshold（POT） method is selected to model the extreme wave height by utilizing a non-stationary discrete statistical extreme model. The varying parameters are taken into account with a changing pattern to reflect the seasonal and directional dependent behavior. Both the magnitude and the occurrence rate of the extreme values are investigated. Detailed discussion on the continuity of the established model is also given. The importance of the proposed model is demonstrated in reliability analysis for a jacket structure. The sensitivity to the changing marine environment in reliability analyses is investigated.展开更多
The wind pressure pulse events, among the most important characteristics of wind pressure fluctuations on large-span flat roofs, were investigated by wind tunnel tests in this paper. Incorporating the formation mechan...The wind pressure pulse events, among the most important characteristics of wind pressure fluctuations on large-span flat roofs, were investigated by wind tunnel tests in this paper. Incorporating the formation mechanism of wind pressure pulse events, the peak over threshold method was employed to study properties of this kind of events. The event duration time, the energy contribution, the number of the pulse events, and the distribution of average peak pressure were calculated. Probability density functions of some typical samples in separation region were also given. Results show that the non-Gaussian roof pressure is strong in the flow separation region owing to the wind pressure pulse events. Evaluations of the extreme peak pressures, which can be determined by the peak over threshold method effectively, are important to the design of building cladding.展开更多
基金supported by the funding of an independent research project from the Chinese State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering(Grant No.GKZD010038)
文摘This paper proposes a new methodology to select an optimal threshold level to be used in the peak over threshold （POT） method for the prediction of short-term distributions of load extremes of offshore wind turbines. Such an optimal threshold level is found based on the estimation of the variance-to-mean ratio for the occurrence of peak values, which characterizes the Poisson assumption. A generalized Pareto distribution is then fitted to the extracted peaks over the optimal threshold level and the distribution parameters are estimated by the method of the maximum spacing estimation. This methodology is applied to estimate the short-term distributions of load extremes of the blade bending moment and the tower base bending moment at the mudline of a monopile-supported 5MW offshore wind turbine as an example. The accuracy of the POT method using the optimal threshold level is shown to be better, in terms of the distribution fitting, than that of the POT methods using empirical threshold levels. The comparisons among the short-term extreme response values predicted by using the POT method with the optimal threshold levels and with the empirical threshold levels and by using direct simulation results further substantiate the validity of the proposed new methodology.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51478201)the Natural Science Fund of Hubei Province(Grant No.2012FKC14201)+1 种基金the Scientific Research Fund of Hubei Provincial Education Department(Grant No.D20134401)the Innovation Foundation in Youth Team of Hubei Polytechnic University(Grant No.Y0008)
文摘With noticing an increasing number of failure events for offshore structures in the present days, it is now realized that modeling the marine environment especially for exceptional environmental conditions is quite important. It is recognized that a possible improvement in the traditional modeling of environmental characteristics, which are the basis for the load models for structural analysis and design, may be needed. In this paper, the seasonal and directional varying properties in modeling the ocean parameter, the wave height, are studied. The peak over threshold（POT） method is selected to model the extreme wave height by utilizing a non-stationary discrete statistical extreme model. The varying parameters are taken into account with a changing pattern to reflect the seasonal and directional dependent behavior. Both the magnitude and the occurrence rate of the extreme values are investigated. Detailed discussion on the continuity of the established model is also given. The importance of the proposed model is demonstrated in reliability analysis for a jacket structure. The sensitivity to the changing marine environment in reliability analyses is investigated.
基金Sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.50708030 and 90815021)
文摘The wind pressure pulse events, among the most important characteristics of wind pressure fluctuations on large-span flat roofs, were investigated by wind tunnel tests in this paper. Incorporating the formation mechanism of wind pressure pulse events, the peak over threshold method was employed to study properties of this kind of events. The event duration time, the energy contribution, the number of the pulse events, and the distribution of average peak pressure were calculated. Probability density functions of some typical samples in separation region were also given. Results show that the non-Gaussian roof pressure is strong in the flow separation region owing to the wind pressure pulse events. Evaluations of the extreme peak pressures, which can be determined by the peak over threshold method effectively, are important to the design of building cladding.
