With continuous hydrocarbon exploration extending to deeper basins,the deepest industrial oil accumulation was discovered below 8,200 m,revealing a new exploration field.Hence,the extent to which oil exploration can b...With continuous hydrocarbon exploration extending to deeper basins,the deepest industrial oil accumulation was discovered below 8,200 m,revealing a new exploration field.Hence,the extent to which oil exploration can be extended,and the prediction of the depth limit of oil accumulation(DLOA),are issues that have attracted significant attention in petroleum geology.Since it is difficult to characterize the evolution of the physical properties of the marine carbonate reservoir with burial depth,and the deepest drilling still cannot reach the DLOA.Hence,the DLOA cannot be predicted by directly establishing the relationship between the ratio of drilling to the dry layer and the depth.In this study,by establishing the relationships between the porosity and the depth and dry layer ratio of the carbonate reservoir,the relationships between the depth and dry layer ratio were obtained collectively.The depth corresponding to a dry layer ratio of 100%is the DLOA.Based on this,a quantitative prediction model for the DLOA was finally built.The results indicate that the porosity of the carbonate reservoir,Lower Ordovician in Tazhong area of Tarim Basin,tends to decrease with burial depth,and manifests as an overall low porosity reservoir in deep layer.The critical porosity of the DLOA was 1.8%,which is the critical geological condition corresponding to a 100%dry layer ratio encountered in the reservoir.The depth of the DLOA was 9,000 m.This study provides a new method for DLOA prediction that is beneficial for a deeper understanding of oil accumulation,and is of great importance for scientific guidance on deep oil drilling.展开更多
A rotating packed bed is a typical chemical process enhancement equipment that can strengthen micromixing and mass transfer.During the operation of the rotating packed bed,the nonreactants and products irregularly adh...A rotating packed bed is a typical chemical process enhancement equipment that can strengthen micromixing and mass transfer.During the operation of the rotating packed bed,the nonreactants and products irregularly adhere to the wire mesh packing in the rotor,thus resulting in an imbalance in the vibration of the rotor,which may cause serious damage to the bearing and material leakage.This study proposes a model prediction for estimating the bearing residual life of a rotating packed bed based on rotor imbalance response analysis.This method is used to determine the influence of the mass on the imbalance in the vibration of the rotor on bearing damage.The major influence on rotor vibration was found to be exerted by the imbalanced mass and its distribution radius,as revealed by the results of orthogonal experiments.Through implementing finite element analysis,the imbalance response curve for the rotating packed bed rotor was obtained,and a correlation among rotor imbalance mass,distribution radius of imbalance mass,and bearing residue life was established via data fitting.The predicted value of the bearing life can be used as the reference basis for an early safety warning of a rotating packed bed to effectively avoid accidents.展开更多
Postoperative pancreatic fistula(POPF)is a frequent complication after pancre-atectomy,leading to increased morbidity and mortality.Optimizing prediction models for POPF has emerged as a critical focus in surgical res...Postoperative pancreatic fistula(POPF)is a frequent complication after pancre-atectomy,leading to increased morbidity and mortality.Optimizing prediction models for POPF has emerged as a critical focus in surgical research.Although over sixty models following pancreaticoduodenectomy,predominantly reliant on a variety of clinical,surgical,and radiological parameters,have been documented,their predictive accuracy remains suboptimal in external validation and across diverse populations.As models after distal pancreatectomy continue to be pro-gressively reported,their external validation is eagerly anticipated.Conversely,POPF prediction after central pancreatectomy is in its nascent stage,warranting urgent need for further development and validation.The potential of machine learning and big data analytics offers promising prospects for enhancing the accuracy of prediction models by incorporating an extensive array of variables and optimizing algorithm performance.Moreover,there is potential for the development of personalized prediction models based on patient-or pancreas-specific factors and postoperative serum or drain fluid biomarkers to improve accuracy in identifying individuals at risk of POPF.In the future,prospective multicenter studies and the integration of novel imaging technologies,such as artificial intelligence-based radiomics,may further refine predictive models.Addressing these issues is anticipated to revolutionize risk stratification,clinical decision-making,and postoperative management in patients undergoing pancre-atectomy.展开更多
Objectives:Anastomotic leakage(AL)stands out as a prevalent and severe complication following gastric cancer surgery.It frequently precipitates additional serious complications,significantly influencing the overall su...Objectives:Anastomotic leakage(AL)stands out as a prevalent and severe complication following gastric cancer surgery.It frequently precipitates additional serious complications,significantly influencing the overall survival time of patients.This study aims to enhance the risk-assessment strategy for AL following gastrectomy for gastric cancer.Methods:This study included a derivation cohort and validation cohort.The derivation cohort included patients who underwent radical gastrectomy at Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital,Zhejiang University School of Medicine,from January 1,2015 to December 31,2020.An evidence-based predictor questionnaire was crafted through extensive literature review and panel discussions.Based on the questionnaire,inpatient data were collected to form a model-derivation cohort.This cohort underwent both univariate and multivariate analyses to identify factors associated with AL events,and a logistic regression model with stepwise regression was developed.A 5-fold cross-validation ensured model reliability.The validation cohort included patients from August 1,2021 to December 31,2021 at the same hospital.Using the same imputation method,we organized the validation-queue data.We then employed the risk-prediction model constructed in the earlier phase of the study to predict the risk of AL in the subjects included in the validation queue.We compared the predictions with the actual occurrence,and evaluated the external validation performance of the model using model-evaluation indicators such as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUROC),Brier score,and calibration curve.Results:The derivation cohort included 1377 patients,and the validation cohort included 131 patients.The independent predictors of AL after radical gastrectomy included age65 y,preoperative albumin<35 g/L,resection extent,operative time240 min,and intraoperative blood loss90 mL.The predictive model exhibited a solid AUROC of 0.750(95%CI:0.694e0.806;p<0.001)with a Brier score of 0.049.The 5-fold cross-validation confirmed these findings with a calibrated C-index of 0.749 and an average Brier score of 0.052.External validation showed an AUROC of 0.723(95%CI:0.564e0.882;p?0.006)and a Brier score of 0.055,confirming reliability in different clinical settings.Conclusions:We successfully developed a risk-prediction model for AL following radical gastrectomy.This tool will aid healthcare professionals in anticipating AL,potentially reducing unnecessary interventions.展开更多
BACKGROUND Cancer patients often suffer from severe stress reactions psychologically,such as anxiety and depression.Prostate cancer(PC)is one of the common cancer types,with most patients diagnosed at advanced stages ...BACKGROUND Cancer patients often suffer from severe stress reactions psychologically,such as anxiety and depression.Prostate cancer(PC)is one of the common cancer types,with most patients diagnosed at advanced stages that cannot be treated by radical surgery and which are accompanied by complications such as bodily pain and bone metastasis.Therefore,attention should be given to the mental health status of PC patients as well as physical adverse events in the course of clinical treatment.AIM To analyze the risk factors leading to anxiety and depression in PC patients after castration and build a risk prediction model.METHODS A retrospective analysis was performed on the data of 120 PC cases treated in Xi'an People's Hospital between January 2019 and January 2022.The patient cohort was divided into a training group(n=84)and a validation group(n=36)at a ratio of 7:3.The patients’anxiety symptoms and depression levels were assessed 2 wk after surgery with the Self-Rating Anxiety Scale(SAS)and the Selfrating Depression Scale(SDS),respectively.Logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors affecting negative mood,and a risk prediction model was constructed.RESULTS In the training group,35 patients and 37 patients had an SAS score and an SDS score greater than or equal to 50,respectively.Based on the scores,we further subclassified patients into two groups:a bad mood group(n=35)and an emotional stability group(n=49).Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that marital status,castration scheme,and postoperative Visual Analogue Scale(VAS)score were independent risk factors affecting a patient's bad mood(P<0.05).In the training and validation groups,patients with adverse emotions exhibited significantly higher risk scores than emotionally stable patients(P<0.0001).The area under the curve(AUC)of the risk prediction model for predicting bad mood in the training group was 0.743,the specificity was 70.96%,and the sensitivity was 66.03%,while in the validation group,the AUC,specificity,and sensitivity were 0.755,66.67%,and 76.19%,respectively.The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed aχ^(2) of 4.2856,a P value of 0.830,and a C-index of 0.773(0.692-0.854).The calibration curve revealed that the predicted curve was basically consistent with the actual curve,and the calibration curve showed that the prediction model had good discrimination and accuracy.Decision curve analysis showed that the model had a high net profit.CONCLUSION In PC patients,marital status,castration scheme,and postoperative pain(VAS)score are important factors affecting postoperative anxiety and depression.The logistic regression model can be used to successfully predict the risk of adverse psychological emotions.展开更多
Dilated cardiomyopathy(DCM)is a common myocardial disease characterized by enlargement of the heart cavity and decreased systolic function,often leading to heart failure(HF)and arrhythmia.The occurrence of atrial fibr...Dilated cardiomyopathy(DCM)is a common myocardial disease characterized by enlargement of the heart cavity and decreased systolic function,often leading to heart failure(HF)and arrhythmia.The occurrence of atrial fibrillation(AF)is closely related to the progression and prognosis of the disease.In recent years,with the advancement of medical imaging and biomarkers,models for predicting the occurrence of AF in DCM patients have gradually become a research hotspot.This article aims to review the current situation of AF in DCM patients and explore the importance and possible methods of constructing predictive models to provide reference for clinical prevention and treatment.We comprehensively analyzed the risk factors for AF in DCM patients from epidemiological data,pathophysiological mechanisms,clinical and laboratory indicators,electrocardiogram and imaging parameters,and biomarkers,and evaluated the effectiveness of existing predictive models.Through analysis of existing literature and research,this article proposes a predictive model that integrates multiple parameters to improve the accuracy of predicting AF in DCM patients and provide a scientific basis for personalized treatment.展开更多
This is an erratum to an already published paper named“Establishment of a prediction model for prehospital return of spontaneous circulation in out-ofhospital patients with cardiac arrest”.We found errors in the aff...This is an erratum to an already published paper named“Establishment of a prediction model for prehospital return of spontaneous circulation in out-ofhospital patients with cardiac arrest”.We found errors in the affiliated institution of the authors.We apologize for our unintentional mistake.Please note,these changes do not affect our results.展开更多
BACKGROUND Surgical site infections(SSIs) are the commonest healthcare-associated infection. In addition to increasing mortality, it also lengthens the hospital stay and raises healthcare expenses. SSIs are challengin...BACKGROUND Surgical site infections(SSIs) are the commonest healthcare-associated infection. In addition to increasing mortality, it also lengthens the hospital stay and raises healthcare expenses. SSIs are challenging to predict, with most models having poor predictability. Therefore, we developed a prediction model for SSI after elective abdominal surgery by identifying risk factors.AIM To analyse the data on inpatients undergoing elective abdominal surgery to identify risk factors and develop predictive models that will help clinicians assess patients preoperatively.METHODS We retrospectively analysed the inpatient records of Shaanxi Provincial People’s Hospital from January 1, 2018 to January 1, 2021. We included the demographic data of the patients and their haematological test results in our analysis. The attending physicians provided the Nutritional Risk Screening 2002(NRS 2002)scores. The surgeons and anaesthesiologists manually calculated the National Nosocomial Infections Surveillance(NNIS) scores. Inpatient SSI risk factors were evaluated using univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression. Nomograms were used in the predictive models. The receiver operating characteristic and area under the curve values were used to measure the specificity and accuracy of the model.RESULTS A total of 3018 patients met the inclusion criteria. The surgical sites included the uterus(42.2%), the liver(27.6%), the gastrointestinal tract(19.1%), the appendix(5.9%), the kidney(3.7%), and the groin area(1.4%). SSI occurred in 5% of the patients(n = 150). The risk factors associated with SSI were as follows: Age;gender;marital status;place of residence;history of diabetes;surgical season;surgical site;NRS 2002 score;preoperative white blood cell, procalcitonin(PCT), albumin, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol(LDL) levels;preoperative antibiotic use;anaesthesia method;incision grade;NNIS score;intraoperative blood loss;intraoperative drainage tube placement;surgical operation items. Multivariate logistic regression revealed the following independent risk factors: A history of diabetes [odds ratio(OR) = 5.698, 95% confidence interval(CI): 3.305-9.825, P = 0.001], antibiotic use(OR = 14.977, 95%CI: 2.865-78.299, P = 0.001), an NRS 2002 score of ≥ 3(OR = 2.426, 95%CI: 1.199-4.909, P = 0.014), general anaesthesia(OR = 3.334, 95%CI: 1.134-9.806, P = 0.029), an NNIS score of ≥ 2(OR = 2.362, 95%CI: 1.019-5.476, P = 0.045), PCT ≥ 0.05 μg/L(OR = 1.687, 95%CI: 1.056-2.695, P = 0.029), LDL < 3.37 mmol/L(OR = 1.719, 95%CI: 1.039-2.842, P = 0.035), intraoperative blood loss ≥ 200 mL(OR = 29.026, 95%CI: 13.751-61.266, P < 0.001), surgical season(P < 0.05), surgical site(P < 0.05), and incision grade I or Ⅲ(P < 0.05). The overall area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the predictive model was 0.926, which is significantly higher than the NNIS score(0.662).CONCLUSION The patient’s condition and haematological test indicators form the bases of our prediction model. It is a novel, efficient, and highly accurate predictive model for preventing postoperative SSI, thereby improving the prognosis in patients undergoing abdominal surgery.展开更多
The strength of water-bearing rock cannot be obtained in real time and by nondestructive experiments,which is an issue at cultural relics protection sites such as grotto temples.To solve this problem,we conducted a ne...The strength of water-bearing rock cannot be obtained in real time and by nondestructive experiments,which is an issue at cultural relics protection sites such as grotto temples.To solve this problem,we conducted a near-infrared spectrum acquisition experiment in the field and laboratory uniaxial compression strength tests on sandstone that had different water saturation levels.The correlations between the peak height and peak area of the nearinfrared absorption bands of the water-bearing sandstone and uniaxial compressive strength were analyzed.On this basis,a strength prediction model for water-bearing sandstone was established using the long short-term memory full convolutional network(LSTM-FCN)method.Subsequently,a field engineering test was carried out.The results showed that:(1)The sandstone samples had four distinct characteristic absorption peaks at 1400,1900,2200,and 2325 nm.The peak height and peak area of the absorption bands near 1400 nm and 1900 nm had a negative correlation with uniaxial compressive strength.The peak height and peak area of the absorption bands near 2200 nm and 2325 nm had nonlinear positive correlations with uniaxial compressive strength.(2)The LSTM-FCN method was used to establish a strength prediction model for water-bearing sandstone based on near-infrared spectroscopy,and the model achieved an accuracy of up to 97.52%.(3)The prediction model was used to realize non-destructive,quantitative,and real-time determination of uniaxial compressive strength;this represents a new method for the non-destructive testing of grotto rock mass at sites of cultural relics protection.展开更多
Interparticle adhesion force has a controlling effect on the physical and mechanical properties of planetary regolith and rocks.The current research on the adhesion force of planetary regolith and rock particles has b...Interparticle adhesion force has a controlling effect on the physical and mechanical properties of planetary regolith and rocks.The current research on the adhesion force of planetary regolith and rock particles has been primarily based on the assumption of smooth spherical particles to calculate the intergranular adhesion force;this approach lacks consideration for the adhesion force between irregular shaped particles.In our study,an innovative approach was established to directly measure the adhesion force between the arbitrary irregular shaped particles;the probe was modified using simulated lunar soil particles that were a typical representation of planetary regolith.The experimental results showed that for irregular shaped mineral particles,the particle size and mineral composition had no significant influence on the interparticle adhesion force;however,the complex morphology of the contact surface predominantly controlled the adhesion force.As the contact surface roughness increased,the adhesion force gradually decreased,and the rate of decrease gradually slowed;these results were consistent with the change trend predicted via the theoretical models of quantum electrodynamics.Moreover,a theoretical model to predict the adhesion force between the irregular shaped particles was constructed based on Rabinovich’s theory,and the prediction results were correlated with the experimental measurements.展开更多
Traditional microstructure scale parameters have difficulty describing the structure and distribution of a roughmaterial’s surface morphology comprehensively and quantitatively. This study constructs hydrophilic and ...Traditional microstructure scale parameters have difficulty describing the structure and distribution of a roughmaterial’s surface morphology comprehensively and quantitatively. This study constructs hydrophilic and underwateroleophobic surfaces based on polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) using a chemical modification method, and the fractaldimension and multifractal spectrum are used to quantitatively characterize the microscopic morphology. A new contactangle prediction model for underwater oleophobic surfaces is established. The results show that the fractal dimension ofthe PVDF surface first increases and then decreases with the reaction time. The uniformity characterized by the multifractalspectrum was generally consistent with scanning electron microscope observations. The contact angle of water droplets onthe PVDF surface is negatively correlated with the fractal dimension, and oil droplets in water are positively correlated.When the fractal dimension is 2.0975, the new contact angle prediction model has higher prediction accuracy. Themaximum and minimum relative deviations of the contact angle between the theoretical and measured data are 18.20%and 0.72%, respectively. For water ring transportation, the larger the fractal dimension and spectral width of the materialsurface, the smaller the absolute value of the spectral difference, the stronger the hydrophilic and oleophobic properties, andthe better the water ring transportation stability.展开更多
The geometry of a landslide dam plays a critical role in its stability and failure mode,and is influenced by the damming process.However,there is a lack of understanding of the factors that affect the 3D geometry of a...The geometry of a landslide dam plays a critical role in its stability and failure mode,and is influenced by the damming process.However,there is a lack of understanding of the factors that affect the 3D geometry of a landslide dam.To address this gap,we conducted a study using the smoothed particle hydrodynamics numerical method to investigate the evolution of landslide dams.Our study included 17 numerical simulations to examine the effects of several factors on the geometry of landslide dams,including valley inclination,sliding angle,landslide velocity,and landslide mass repose angle.Based on this,three rapid prediction models were established for calculating the maximum height,the minimum height,and the maximum width of a landslide dam.The results show that the downstream width of a landslide dam remarkably increases with the valley inclination.The position of the maximum dam height along the valley direction is independent of external factors and is always located in the middle of the landslide width area.In contrast,that position of the maximum dam height across the valley direction is significantly influenced by the sliding angle and landslide velocity.To validate our models,we applied them to three typical landslide dams and found that the calculated values of the landslide dam geometry were in good agreement with the actual values.The findings of the current study provide a better understanding of the evolution and geometry of landslide dams,giving crucial guidance for the prediction and early warning of landslide dam disasters.展开更多
BACKGROUND Gestational diabetes mellitus(GDM)is a condition characterized by high blood sugar levels during pregnancy.The prevalence of GDM is on the rise globally,and this trend is particularly evident in China,which...BACKGROUND Gestational diabetes mellitus(GDM)is a condition characterized by high blood sugar levels during pregnancy.The prevalence of GDM is on the rise globally,and this trend is particularly evident in China,which has emerged as a significant issue impacting the well-being of expectant mothers and their fetuses.Identifying and addressing GDM in a timely manner is crucial for maintaining the health of both expectant mothers and their developing fetuses.Therefore,this study aims to establish a risk prediction model for GDM and explore the effects of serum ferritin,blood glucose,and body mass index(BMI)on the occurrence of GDM.AIM To develop a risk prediction model to analyze factors leading to GDM,and evaluate its efficiency for early prevention.METHODS The clinical data of 406 pregnant women who underwent routine prenatal examination in Fujian Maternity and Child Health Hospital from April 2020 to December 2022 were retrospectively analyzed.According to whether GDM occurred,they were divided into two groups to analyze the related factors affecting GDM.Then,according to the weight of the relevant risk factors,the training set and the verification set were divided at a ratio of 7:3.Subsequently,a risk prediction model was established using logistic regression and random forest models,and the model was evaluated and verified.RESULTS Pre-pregnancy BMI,previous history of GDM or macrosomia,hypertension,hemoglobin(Hb)level,triglyceride level,family history of diabetes,serum ferritin,and fasting blood glucose levels during early pregnancy were determined.These factors were found to have a significant impact on the development of GDM(P<0.05).According to the nomogram model’s prediction of GDM in pregnancy,the area under the curve(AUC)was determined to be 0.883[95%confidence interval(CI):0.846-0.921],and the sensitivity and specificity were 74.1%and 87.6%,respectively.The top five variables in the random forest model for predicting the occurrence of GDM were serum ferritin,fasting blood glucose in early pregnancy,pre-pregnancy BMI,Hb level and triglyceride level.The random forest model achieved an AUC of 0.950(95%CI:0.927-0.973),the sensitivity was 84.8%,and the specificity was 91.4%.The Delong test showed that the AUC value of the random forest model was higher than that of the decision tree model(P<0.05).CONCLUSION The random forest model is superior to the nomogram model in predicting the risk of GDM.This method is helpful for early diagnosis and appropriate intervention of GDM.展开更多
BACKGROUND Hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)is difficult to diagnose with poor therapeutic effect,high recurrence rate and has a low survival rate.The survival of patients with HCC is closely related to the stage of diagn...BACKGROUND Hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)is difficult to diagnose with poor therapeutic effect,high recurrence rate and has a low survival rate.The survival of patients with HCC is closely related to the stage of diagnosis.At present,no specific serolo-gical indicator or method to predict HCC,early diagnosis of HCC remains a challenge,especially in China,where the situation is more severe.AIM To identify risk factors associated with HCC and establish a risk prediction model based on clinical characteristics and liver-related indicators.METHODS The clinical data of patients in the Affiliated Hospital of North Sichuan Medical College from 2016 to 2020 were collected,using a retrospective study method.The results of needle biopsy or surgical pathology were used as the grouping criteria for the experimental group and the control group in this study.Based on the time of admission,the cases were divided into training cohort(n=1739)and validation cohort(n=467).Using HCC as a dependent variable,the research indicators were incorporated into logistic univariate and multivariate analysis.An HCC risk prediction model,which was called NSMC-HCC model,was then established in training cohort and verified in validation cohort.RESULTS Logistic univariate analysis showed that,gender,age,alpha-fetoprotein,and protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist-II,gamma-glutamyl transferase,aspartate aminotransferase and hepatitis B surface antigen were risk factors for HCC,alanine aminotransferase,total bilirubin and total bile acid were protective factors for HCC.When the cut-off value of the NSMC-HCC model joint prediction was 0.22,the area under receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC)of NSMC-HCC model in HCC diagnosis was 0.960,with sensitivity 94.40%and specificity 95.35%in training cohort,and AUC was 0.966,with sensitivity 90.00%and specificity 94.20%in validation cohort.In early-stage HCC diagnosis,the AUC of NSMC-HCC model was 0.946,with sensitivity 85.93%and specificity 93.62%in training cohort,and AUC was 0.947,with sensitivity 89.10%and specificity 98.49%in validation cohort.CONCLUSION The newly NSMC-HCC model was an effective risk prediction model in HCC and early-stage HCC diagnosis.展开更多
Recent advancement in low-cost cameras has facilitated surveillance in various developing towns in India.The video obtained from such surveillance are of low quality.Still counting vehicles from such videos are necess...Recent advancement in low-cost cameras has facilitated surveillance in various developing towns in India.The video obtained from such surveillance are of low quality.Still counting vehicles from such videos are necessity to avoid traf-fic congestion and allows drivers to plan their routes more precisely.On the other hand,detecting vehicles from such low quality videos are highly challenging with vision based methodologies.In this research a meticulous attempt is made to access low-quality videos to describe traffic in Salem town in India,which is mostly an un-attempted entity by most available sources.In this work profound Detection Transformer(DETR)model is used for object(vehicle)detection.Here vehicles are anticipated in a rush-hour traffic video using a set of loss functions that carry out bipartite coordinating among estimated and information acquired on real attributes.Every frame in the traffic footage has its date and time which is detected and retrieved using Tesseract Optical Character Recognition.The date and time extricated and perceived from the input image are incorporated with the length of the recognized objects acquired from the DETR model.This furnishes the vehicles report with timestamp.Transformer Timeseries Prediction Model(TTPM)is proposed to predict the density of the vehicle for future prediction,here the regular NLP layers have been removed and the encoding temporal layer has been modified.The proposed TTPM error rate outperforms the existing models with RMSE of 4.313 and MAE of 3.812.展开更多
BACKGROUND Severe infection often results in bacteremia,which significantly increases mortality rate.Different therapeutic strategies are employed depending on whether the blood-borne infection is Gram-negative(G-)or ...BACKGROUND Severe infection often results in bacteremia,which significantly increases mortality rate.Different therapeutic strategies are employed depending on whether the blood-borne infection is Gram-negative(G-)or Gram-positive(G+).However,there is no risk prediction model for assessing whether bacteremia patients are infected with G-or G+pathogens.AIM To establish a clinical prediction model to distinguish G-from G+infection.METHODS A total of 130 patients with positive blood culture admitted to a single intensive care unit were recruited,and Th1 and Th2 cytokine concentrations,routine blood test results,procalcitonin and C-reactive protein concentrations,liver and kidney function test results and coagulation function were compared between G+and Ggroups.Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO)regression analysis was employed to optimize the selection of predictive variables by running cyclic coordinate descent and K-fold cross-validation(K=10).The predictive variables selected by LASSO regression analysis were then included in multivariate logistic regression analysis to establish a prediction model.A nomogram was also constructed based on the prediction model.Calibration chart,receiver operating characteristic curve and decision curve analysis were adopted for validating the prediction model.RESULTS Age,plasma interleukin 6(IL-6)concentration and plasma aspartate aminotransferase concentration were identified from 57 measured variables as potential factors distinguishing G+from G-infection by LASSO regression analysis.Inclusion of these three variables in a multivariate logistic regression model identified age and IL-6 as significant predictors.In receiver operating characteristic curve analysis,age and IL-6 yielded an area under the curve of 0.761 and distinguished G+from G-infection with specificity of 0.756 and sensitivity of 0.692.Serum IL-6 and IL-10 levels were upregulated by more than 10-fold from baseline in the G-bacteremia group but by less than ten-fold in the G+bacteremia group.The calibration curve of the model and Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated good model fit(P>0.05).When the decision curve analysis curve indicated a risk threshold probability between 0%and 68%,a nomogram could be applied in clinical settings.CONCLUSION A simple prediction model distinguishing G-from G+bacteremia can be constructed based on reciprocal association with age and IL-6 level.展开更多
Obscure gastrointestinal bleeding(OGIB)has traditionally been defined as gastrointestinal bleeding whose source remains unidentified after bidirectional endoscopy.OGIB can present as overt bleeding or occult bleeding,...Obscure gastrointestinal bleeding(OGIB)has traditionally been defined as gastrointestinal bleeding whose source remains unidentified after bidirectional endoscopy.OGIB can present as overt bleeding or occult bleeding,and small bowel lesions are the most common causes.The small bowel can be evaluated using capsule endoscopy,device-assisted enteroscopy,computed tomography enterography,or magnetic resonance enterography.Once the cause of smallbowel bleeding is identified and targeted therapeutic intervention is completed,the patient can be managed with routine visits.However,diagnostic tests may produce negative results,and some patients with small bowel bleeding,regardless of diagnostic findings,may experience rebleeding.Predicting those at risk of rebleeding can help clinicians form individualized surveillance plans.Several studies have identified different factors associated with rebleeding,and a limited number of studies have attempted to create prediction models for recurrence.This article describes prediction models developed so far for identifying patients with OGIB who are at greater risk of rebleeding.These models may aid clinicians in forming tailored patient management and surveillance.展开更多
Objective:To analyze the independent risk factors for the occurrence of moderate-to-severe metabolic-associated fatty liver disease(MAFLD),to construct a prediction model for moderate-to-severe MAFLD,and to verify the...Objective:To analyze the independent risk factors for the occurrence of moderate-to-severe metabolic-associated fatty liver disease(MAFLD),to construct a prediction model for moderate-to-severe MAFLD,and to verify the validity of the model.Methods:In the first part,278 medical examiners who were diagnosed with MAFLD in Medical Examination Center at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Hainan University from January to May 2022 were taken as the study subjects(training set),and they were divided into mild MAFLD group(200)and moderate-severe MAFLD group(78)based on ultrasound results.Demographic data and laboratory indexes were collected,and risk factors were screened by univariate and multifactor analysis.In the second part,a dichotomous logistic regression equation was used to construct a prediction model for moderate-to-severe MAFLD,and the model was visualized in a line graph.In the third part,the MAFLD population(200 people in the external validation set)from our physical examination center from November to December 2022 was collected as the moderate-to-severe MAFLD prediction model,and the risk factors in both groups were compared.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves,calibration curves,and clinical applicability of the model were plotted to represent model discrimination for internal and external validation.Results:The risk factors of moderate-to-severe MAFLD were fasting glucose(FPG),blood uric acid(UA),triglycerides(TG),triglyceride glucose index(TyG),total cholesterol(CHOL),and high-density lipoprotein(HDL-C).UA[OR=1.021,95%CI(1.015,1.027),P<0.001]and FPG[OR=1.575,95%CI(1.158,2.143),P=0.004]were independent risk factors for people with moderate to severe MAFLD.The visualized line graph model showed that UA was the factor contributing more to the risk of moderate to severe MAFLD in this model.The ROC curves showed AUC values of 0.8701,0.8686 and 0.7991 for the training set,internal validation set and external validation set,respectively.The curves almost coincided with the reference line after calibration of the model calibration degree with P>0.05 in Hosmer-Lemeshow test.The decision curve analysis(DCA)plotted by the clinical applicability of the model was higher than the two extreme curves,predicting that patients with moderate to severe MAFLD would benefit from the prediction model.Conclusion:The prediction model constructed by combining FPG with UA has higher accuracy and better clinical applicability,and can be used for clinical diagnosis.展开更多
In order to realize the accurate prediction of the total output value of construction industry in the future,the grey prediction model is used to compare the measured value with the predicted value from 2012 to 2021,a...In order to realize the accurate prediction of the total output value of construction industry in the future,the grey prediction model is used to compare the measured value with the predicted value from 2012 to 2021,and based on the existing data,the total output value of construction industry in Jiangxi Province in the next five years is predicted.The results show that the grey prediction model has a good prediction effect,and the error between the predicted value and the measured value is within 14%,which provides a basis for policy adjustment and resource optimization.展开更多
Objective: To explore the related factors of surgical treatment of patients with corpus luteum rupture and establish a risk prediction model of surgical treatment of corpus luteum rupture. Methods: 222 patients with c...Objective: To explore the related factors of surgical treatment of patients with corpus luteum rupture and establish a risk prediction model of surgical treatment of corpus luteum rupture. Methods: 222 patients with corpus luteum rupture treated in Jingzhou First People’s Hospital from January 2015 to March 2022 were analyzed retrospectively, including 45 cases of surgery and 177 cases of conservative treatment. The training set and validation set were randomly assigned according to 7:3. We collected the basic information, laboratory and ultrasonic examination data of 222 patients. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the independent risk factors and combined predictors of surgical treatment of corpus luteum rupture. The risk prediction model was established and the nomogram was drawn. The discrimination and calibration of the prediction model were verified and evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test;Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the clinical effectiveness of the prediction model. Results: Univariate logistic regression showed that whole abdominal pain (OR: 2.314, 95% CI: 1.090 - 4.912), abdominal muscle tension (OR: 2.379, 95% CI: 1.112 - 5.089), adnexal mass ≥ 4 cm (OR: 3.926, 95% CI: 1.771 - 8.266), hemoglobin Conclusion: The nomogram prediction model containing three predictive variables (hemoglobin, depth of pelvic effusion under ultrasound and cervical lifting pain) can be used to predict the risk of surgical treatment in patients with corpus luteum rupture.展开更多
基金This work was supported by the Beijing Nova Program[Z211100002121136]Open Fund Project of State Key Laboratory of Lithospheric Evolution[SKL-K202103]+1 种基金Joint Funds of National Natural Science Foundation of China[U19B6003-02]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[42302149].We would like to thank Prof.Zhu Rixiang from the Institute of Geology and Geophysics,Chinese Academy of Sciences.
文摘With continuous hydrocarbon exploration extending to deeper basins,the deepest industrial oil accumulation was discovered below 8,200 m,revealing a new exploration field.Hence,the extent to which oil exploration can be extended,and the prediction of the depth limit of oil accumulation(DLOA),are issues that have attracted significant attention in petroleum geology.Since it is difficult to characterize the evolution of the physical properties of the marine carbonate reservoir with burial depth,and the deepest drilling still cannot reach the DLOA.Hence,the DLOA cannot be predicted by directly establishing the relationship between the ratio of drilling to the dry layer and the depth.In this study,by establishing the relationships between the porosity and the depth and dry layer ratio of the carbonate reservoir,the relationships between the depth and dry layer ratio were obtained collectively.The depth corresponding to a dry layer ratio of 100%is the DLOA.Based on this,a quantitative prediction model for the DLOA was finally built.The results indicate that the porosity of the carbonate reservoir,Lower Ordovician in Tazhong area of Tarim Basin,tends to decrease with burial depth,and manifests as an overall low porosity reservoir in deep layer.The critical porosity of the DLOA was 1.8%,which is the critical geological condition corresponding to a 100%dry layer ratio encountered in the reservoir.The depth of the DLOA was 9,000 m.This study provides a new method for DLOA prediction that is beneficial for a deeper understanding of oil accumulation,and is of great importance for scientific guidance on deep oil drilling.
基金the High-Performance Computing Platform of Beijing University of Chemical Technology(BUCT)for supporting this papersupported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(JD2319)+2 种基金the CNOOC Technical Cooperation Project(ZX2022ZCTYF7612)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51775029,52004014)the Chinese Universities Scientific Fund(XK2020-04)。
文摘A rotating packed bed is a typical chemical process enhancement equipment that can strengthen micromixing and mass transfer.During the operation of the rotating packed bed,the nonreactants and products irregularly adhere to the wire mesh packing in the rotor,thus resulting in an imbalance in the vibration of the rotor,which may cause serious damage to the bearing and material leakage.This study proposes a model prediction for estimating the bearing residual life of a rotating packed bed based on rotor imbalance response analysis.This method is used to determine the influence of the mass on the imbalance in the vibration of the rotor on bearing damage.The major influence on rotor vibration was found to be exerted by the imbalanced mass and its distribution radius,as revealed by the results of orthogonal experiments.Through implementing finite element analysis,the imbalance response curve for the rotating packed bed rotor was obtained,and a correlation among rotor imbalance mass,distribution radius of imbalance mass,and bearing residue life was established via data fitting.The predicted value of the bearing life can be used as the reference basis for an early safety warning of a rotating packed bed to effectively avoid accidents.
文摘Postoperative pancreatic fistula(POPF)is a frequent complication after pancre-atectomy,leading to increased morbidity and mortality.Optimizing prediction models for POPF has emerged as a critical focus in surgical research.Although over sixty models following pancreaticoduodenectomy,predominantly reliant on a variety of clinical,surgical,and radiological parameters,have been documented,their predictive accuracy remains suboptimal in external validation and across diverse populations.As models after distal pancreatectomy continue to be pro-gressively reported,their external validation is eagerly anticipated.Conversely,POPF prediction after central pancreatectomy is in its nascent stage,warranting urgent need for further development and validation.The potential of machine learning and big data analytics offers promising prospects for enhancing the accuracy of prediction models by incorporating an extensive array of variables and optimizing algorithm performance.Moreover,there is potential for the development of personalized prediction models based on patient-or pancreas-specific factors and postoperative serum or drain fluid biomarkers to improve accuracy in identifying individuals at risk of POPF.In the future,prospective multicenter studies and the integration of novel imaging technologies,such as artificial intelligence-based radiomics,may further refine predictive models.Addressing these issues is anticipated to revolutionize risk stratification,clinical decision-making,and postoperative management in patients undergoing pancre-atectomy.
基金This workwas supported by the Medical and Health Science and Technology Project of Zhejiang Province(No.2021KY180).
文摘Objectives:Anastomotic leakage(AL)stands out as a prevalent and severe complication following gastric cancer surgery.It frequently precipitates additional serious complications,significantly influencing the overall survival time of patients.This study aims to enhance the risk-assessment strategy for AL following gastrectomy for gastric cancer.Methods:This study included a derivation cohort and validation cohort.The derivation cohort included patients who underwent radical gastrectomy at Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital,Zhejiang University School of Medicine,from January 1,2015 to December 31,2020.An evidence-based predictor questionnaire was crafted through extensive literature review and panel discussions.Based on the questionnaire,inpatient data were collected to form a model-derivation cohort.This cohort underwent both univariate and multivariate analyses to identify factors associated with AL events,and a logistic regression model with stepwise regression was developed.A 5-fold cross-validation ensured model reliability.The validation cohort included patients from August 1,2021 to December 31,2021 at the same hospital.Using the same imputation method,we organized the validation-queue data.We then employed the risk-prediction model constructed in the earlier phase of the study to predict the risk of AL in the subjects included in the validation queue.We compared the predictions with the actual occurrence,and evaluated the external validation performance of the model using model-evaluation indicators such as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUROC),Brier score,and calibration curve.Results:The derivation cohort included 1377 patients,and the validation cohort included 131 patients.The independent predictors of AL after radical gastrectomy included age65 y,preoperative albumin<35 g/L,resection extent,operative time240 min,and intraoperative blood loss90 mL.The predictive model exhibited a solid AUROC of 0.750(95%CI:0.694e0.806;p<0.001)with a Brier score of 0.049.The 5-fold cross-validation confirmed these findings with a calibrated C-index of 0.749 and an average Brier score of 0.052.External validation showed an AUROC of 0.723(95%CI:0.564e0.882;p?0.006)and a Brier score of 0.055,confirming reliability in different clinical settings.Conclusions:We successfully developed a risk-prediction model for AL following radical gastrectomy.This tool will aid healthcare professionals in anticipating AL,potentially reducing unnecessary interventions.
文摘BACKGROUND Cancer patients often suffer from severe stress reactions psychologically,such as anxiety and depression.Prostate cancer(PC)is one of the common cancer types,with most patients diagnosed at advanced stages that cannot be treated by radical surgery and which are accompanied by complications such as bodily pain and bone metastasis.Therefore,attention should be given to the mental health status of PC patients as well as physical adverse events in the course of clinical treatment.AIM To analyze the risk factors leading to anxiety and depression in PC patients after castration and build a risk prediction model.METHODS A retrospective analysis was performed on the data of 120 PC cases treated in Xi'an People's Hospital between January 2019 and January 2022.The patient cohort was divided into a training group(n=84)and a validation group(n=36)at a ratio of 7:3.The patients’anxiety symptoms and depression levels were assessed 2 wk after surgery with the Self-Rating Anxiety Scale(SAS)and the Selfrating Depression Scale(SDS),respectively.Logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors affecting negative mood,and a risk prediction model was constructed.RESULTS In the training group,35 patients and 37 patients had an SAS score and an SDS score greater than or equal to 50,respectively.Based on the scores,we further subclassified patients into two groups:a bad mood group(n=35)and an emotional stability group(n=49).Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that marital status,castration scheme,and postoperative Visual Analogue Scale(VAS)score were independent risk factors affecting a patient's bad mood(P<0.05).In the training and validation groups,patients with adverse emotions exhibited significantly higher risk scores than emotionally stable patients(P<0.0001).The area under the curve(AUC)of the risk prediction model for predicting bad mood in the training group was 0.743,the specificity was 70.96%,and the sensitivity was 66.03%,while in the validation group,the AUC,specificity,and sensitivity were 0.755,66.67%,and 76.19%,respectively.The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed aχ^(2) of 4.2856,a P value of 0.830,and a C-index of 0.773(0.692-0.854).The calibration curve revealed that the predicted curve was basically consistent with the actual curve,and the calibration curve showed that the prediction model had good discrimination and accuracy.Decision curve analysis showed that the model had a high net profit.CONCLUSION In PC patients,marital status,castration scheme,and postoperative pain(VAS)score are important factors affecting postoperative anxiety and depression.The logistic regression model can be used to successfully predict the risk of adverse psychological emotions.
文摘Dilated cardiomyopathy(DCM)is a common myocardial disease characterized by enlargement of the heart cavity and decreased systolic function,often leading to heart failure(HF)and arrhythmia.The occurrence of atrial fibrillation(AF)is closely related to the progression and prognosis of the disease.In recent years,with the advancement of medical imaging and biomarkers,models for predicting the occurrence of AF in DCM patients have gradually become a research hotspot.This article aims to review the current situation of AF in DCM patients and explore the importance and possible methods of constructing predictive models to provide reference for clinical prevention and treatment.We comprehensively analyzed the risk factors for AF in DCM patients from epidemiological data,pathophysiological mechanisms,clinical and laboratory indicators,electrocardiogram and imaging parameters,and biomarkers,and evaluated the effectiveness of existing predictive models.Through analysis of existing literature and research,this article proposes a predictive model that integrates multiple parameters to improve the accuracy of predicting AF in DCM patients and provide a scientific basis for personalized treatment.
文摘This is an erratum to an already published paper named“Establishment of a prediction model for prehospital return of spontaneous circulation in out-ofhospital patients with cardiac arrest”.We found errors in the affiliated institution of the authors.We apologize for our unintentional mistake.Please note,these changes do not affect our results.
基金Supported by Key Research and Development Program of Shaanxi,No.2020GXLH-Y-019 and 2022KXJ-141Innovation Capability Support Program of Shaanxi,No.2019GHJD-14 and 2021TD-40+1 种基金Science and Technology Talent Support Program of Shaanxi Provincial People's Hospital,No.2021LJ-052023 Natural Science Basic Research Foundation of Shaanxi Province,No.2023-JC-YB-739.
文摘BACKGROUND Surgical site infections(SSIs) are the commonest healthcare-associated infection. In addition to increasing mortality, it also lengthens the hospital stay and raises healthcare expenses. SSIs are challenging to predict, with most models having poor predictability. Therefore, we developed a prediction model for SSI after elective abdominal surgery by identifying risk factors.AIM To analyse the data on inpatients undergoing elective abdominal surgery to identify risk factors and develop predictive models that will help clinicians assess patients preoperatively.METHODS We retrospectively analysed the inpatient records of Shaanxi Provincial People’s Hospital from January 1, 2018 to January 1, 2021. We included the demographic data of the patients and their haematological test results in our analysis. The attending physicians provided the Nutritional Risk Screening 2002(NRS 2002)scores. The surgeons and anaesthesiologists manually calculated the National Nosocomial Infections Surveillance(NNIS) scores. Inpatient SSI risk factors were evaluated using univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression. Nomograms were used in the predictive models. The receiver operating characteristic and area under the curve values were used to measure the specificity and accuracy of the model.RESULTS A total of 3018 patients met the inclusion criteria. The surgical sites included the uterus(42.2%), the liver(27.6%), the gastrointestinal tract(19.1%), the appendix(5.9%), the kidney(3.7%), and the groin area(1.4%). SSI occurred in 5% of the patients(n = 150). The risk factors associated with SSI were as follows: Age;gender;marital status;place of residence;history of diabetes;surgical season;surgical site;NRS 2002 score;preoperative white blood cell, procalcitonin(PCT), albumin, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol(LDL) levels;preoperative antibiotic use;anaesthesia method;incision grade;NNIS score;intraoperative blood loss;intraoperative drainage tube placement;surgical operation items. Multivariate logistic regression revealed the following independent risk factors: A history of diabetes [odds ratio(OR) = 5.698, 95% confidence interval(CI): 3.305-9.825, P = 0.001], antibiotic use(OR = 14.977, 95%CI: 2.865-78.299, P = 0.001), an NRS 2002 score of ≥ 3(OR = 2.426, 95%CI: 1.199-4.909, P = 0.014), general anaesthesia(OR = 3.334, 95%CI: 1.134-9.806, P = 0.029), an NNIS score of ≥ 2(OR = 2.362, 95%CI: 1.019-5.476, P = 0.045), PCT ≥ 0.05 μg/L(OR = 1.687, 95%CI: 1.056-2.695, P = 0.029), LDL < 3.37 mmol/L(OR = 1.719, 95%CI: 1.039-2.842, P = 0.035), intraoperative blood loss ≥ 200 mL(OR = 29.026, 95%CI: 13.751-61.266, P < 0.001), surgical season(P < 0.05), surgical site(P < 0.05), and incision grade I or Ⅲ(P < 0.05). The overall area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the predictive model was 0.926, which is significantly higher than the NNIS score(0.662).CONCLUSION The patient’s condition and haematological test indicators form the bases of our prediction model. It is a novel, efficient, and highly accurate predictive model for preventing postoperative SSI, thereby improving the prognosis in patients undergoing abdominal surgery.
基金supported by the Zhejiang Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center of Mountain Geological Hazard Prevention(PCMGH-2021-05)the Special Fund for Fundamental Research Business Expenses of Central Universities(Grant No.600101110102)。
文摘The strength of water-bearing rock cannot be obtained in real time and by nondestructive experiments,which is an issue at cultural relics protection sites such as grotto temples.To solve this problem,we conducted a near-infrared spectrum acquisition experiment in the field and laboratory uniaxial compression strength tests on sandstone that had different water saturation levels.The correlations between the peak height and peak area of the nearinfrared absorption bands of the water-bearing sandstone and uniaxial compressive strength were analyzed.On this basis,a strength prediction model for water-bearing sandstone was established using the long short-term memory full convolutional network(LSTM-FCN)method.Subsequently,a field engineering test was carried out.The results showed that:(1)The sandstone samples had four distinct characteristic absorption peaks at 1400,1900,2200,and 2325 nm.The peak height and peak area of the absorption bands near 1400 nm and 1900 nm had a negative correlation with uniaxial compressive strength.The peak height and peak area of the absorption bands near 2200 nm and 2325 nm had nonlinear positive correlations with uniaxial compressive strength.(2)The LSTM-FCN method was used to establish a strength prediction model for water-bearing sandstone based on near-infrared spectroscopy,and the model achieved an accuracy of up to 97.52%.(3)The prediction model was used to realize non-destructive,quantitative,and real-time determination of uniaxial compressive strength;this represents a new method for the non-destructive testing of grotto rock mass at sites of cultural relics protection.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.U22A20166,52104141,12172230 and U2013603)the Department of Science and Technology of Guangdong Province(No.2019ZT08G315)the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(No.2023A1515012654).
文摘Interparticle adhesion force has a controlling effect on the physical and mechanical properties of planetary regolith and rocks.The current research on the adhesion force of planetary regolith and rock particles has been primarily based on the assumption of smooth spherical particles to calculate the intergranular adhesion force;this approach lacks consideration for the adhesion force between irregular shaped particles.In our study,an innovative approach was established to directly measure the adhesion force between the arbitrary irregular shaped particles;the probe was modified using simulated lunar soil particles that were a typical representation of planetary regolith.The experimental results showed that for irregular shaped mineral particles,the particle size and mineral composition had no significant influence on the interparticle adhesion force;however,the complex morphology of the contact surface predominantly controlled the adhesion force.As the contact surface roughness increased,the adhesion force gradually decreased,and the rate of decrease gradually slowed;these results were consistent with the change trend predicted via the theoretical models of quantum electrodynamics.Moreover,a theoretical model to predict the adhesion force between the irregular shaped particles was constructed based on Rabinovich’s theory,and the prediction results were correlated with the experimental measurements.
基金the Natural Science Basic Research Program of Shaanxi(Program No.2023-JC-YB-351)the Scientific Research Program Funded by the Shaanxi Provincial Education Department(Program No.20JS118)the Xi’an Shiyou University Graduate Innovation and Practice Ability Training Plan(YCS21212097,YCS21212092).
文摘Traditional microstructure scale parameters have difficulty describing the structure and distribution of a roughmaterial’s surface morphology comprehensively and quantitatively. This study constructs hydrophilic and underwateroleophobic surfaces based on polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) using a chemical modification method, and the fractaldimension and multifractal spectrum are used to quantitatively characterize the microscopic morphology. A new contactangle prediction model for underwater oleophobic surfaces is established. The results show that the fractal dimension ofthe PVDF surface first increases and then decreases with the reaction time. The uniformity characterized by the multifractalspectrum was generally consistent with scanning electron microscope observations. The contact angle of water droplets onthe PVDF surface is negatively correlated with the fractal dimension, and oil droplets in water are positively correlated.When the fractal dimension is 2.0975, the new contact angle prediction model has higher prediction accuracy. Themaximum and minimum relative deviations of the contact angle between the theoretical and measured data are 18.20%and 0.72%, respectively. For water ring transportation, the larger the fractal dimension and spectral width of the materialsurface, the smaller the absolute value of the spectral difference, the stronger the hydrophilic and oleophobic properties, andthe better the water ring transportation stability.
基金funding from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42207228,51879036,51579032)the Liaoning Revitalization Talents Program(XLYC2002036)the Sichuan Science and Technology Program(2022NSFSC1060)。
文摘The geometry of a landslide dam plays a critical role in its stability and failure mode,and is influenced by the damming process.However,there is a lack of understanding of the factors that affect the 3D geometry of a landslide dam.To address this gap,we conducted a study using the smoothed particle hydrodynamics numerical method to investigate the evolution of landslide dams.Our study included 17 numerical simulations to examine the effects of several factors on the geometry of landslide dams,including valley inclination,sliding angle,landslide velocity,and landslide mass repose angle.Based on this,three rapid prediction models were established for calculating the maximum height,the minimum height,and the maximum width of a landslide dam.The results show that the downstream width of a landslide dam remarkably increases with the valley inclination.The position of the maximum dam height along the valley direction is independent of external factors and is always located in the middle of the landslide width area.In contrast,that position of the maximum dam height across the valley direction is significantly influenced by the sliding angle and landslide velocity.To validate our models,we applied them to three typical landslide dams and found that the calculated values of the landslide dam geometry were in good agreement with the actual values.The findings of the current study provide a better understanding of the evolution and geometry of landslide dams,giving crucial guidance for the prediction and early warning of landslide dam disasters.
文摘BACKGROUND Gestational diabetes mellitus(GDM)is a condition characterized by high blood sugar levels during pregnancy.The prevalence of GDM is on the rise globally,and this trend is particularly evident in China,which has emerged as a significant issue impacting the well-being of expectant mothers and their fetuses.Identifying and addressing GDM in a timely manner is crucial for maintaining the health of both expectant mothers and their developing fetuses.Therefore,this study aims to establish a risk prediction model for GDM and explore the effects of serum ferritin,blood glucose,and body mass index(BMI)on the occurrence of GDM.AIM To develop a risk prediction model to analyze factors leading to GDM,and evaluate its efficiency for early prevention.METHODS The clinical data of 406 pregnant women who underwent routine prenatal examination in Fujian Maternity and Child Health Hospital from April 2020 to December 2022 were retrospectively analyzed.According to whether GDM occurred,they were divided into two groups to analyze the related factors affecting GDM.Then,according to the weight of the relevant risk factors,the training set and the verification set were divided at a ratio of 7:3.Subsequently,a risk prediction model was established using logistic regression and random forest models,and the model was evaluated and verified.RESULTS Pre-pregnancy BMI,previous history of GDM or macrosomia,hypertension,hemoglobin(Hb)level,triglyceride level,family history of diabetes,serum ferritin,and fasting blood glucose levels during early pregnancy were determined.These factors were found to have a significant impact on the development of GDM(P<0.05).According to the nomogram model’s prediction of GDM in pregnancy,the area under the curve(AUC)was determined to be 0.883[95%confidence interval(CI):0.846-0.921],and the sensitivity and specificity were 74.1%and 87.6%,respectively.The top five variables in the random forest model for predicting the occurrence of GDM were serum ferritin,fasting blood glucose in early pregnancy,pre-pregnancy BMI,Hb level and triglyceride level.The random forest model achieved an AUC of 0.950(95%CI:0.927-0.973),the sensitivity was 84.8%,and the specificity was 91.4%.The Delong test showed that the AUC value of the random forest model was higher than that of the decision tree model(P<0.05).CONCLUSION The random forest model is superior to the nomogram model in predicting the risk of GDM.This method is helpful for early diagnosis and appropriate intervention of GDM.
文摘BACKGROUND Hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)is difficult to diagnose with poor therapeutic effect,high recurrence rate and has a low survival rate.The survival of patients with HCC is closely related to the stage of diagnosis.At present,no specific serolo-gical indicator or method to predict HCC,early diagnosis of HCC remains a challenge,especially in China,where the situation is more severe.AIM To identify risk factors associated with HCC and establish a risk prediction model based on clinical characteristics and liver-related indicators.METHODS The clinical data of patients in the Affiliated Hospital of North Sichuan Medical College from 2016 to 2020 were collected,using a retrospective study method.The results of needle biopsy or surgical pathology were used as the grouping criteria for the experimental group and the control group in this study.Based on the time of admission,the cases were divided into training cohort(n=1739)and validation cohort(n=467).Using HCC as a dependent variable,the research indicators were incorporated into logistic univariate and multivariate analysis.An HCC risk prediction model,which was called NSMC-HCC model,was then established in training cohort and verified in validation cohort.RESULTS Logistic univariate analysis showed that,gender,age,alpha-fetoprotein,and protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist-II,gamma-glutamyl transferase,aspartate aminotransferase and hepatitis B surface antigen were risk factors for HCC,alanine aminotransferase,total bilirubin and total bile acid were protective factors for HCC.When the cut-off value of the NSMC-HCC model joint prediction was 0.22,the area under receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC)of NSMC-HCC model in HCC diagnosis was 0.960,with sensitivity 94.40%and specificity 95.35%in training cohort,and AUC was 0.966,with sensitivity 90.00%and specificity 94.20%in validation cohort.In early-stage HCC diagnosis,the AUC of NSMC-HCC model was 0.946,with sensitivity 85.93%and specificity 93.62%in training cohort,and AUC was 0.947,with sensitivity 89.10%and specificity 98.49%in validation cohort.CONCLUSION The newly NSMC-HCC model was an effective risk prediction model in HCC and early-stage HCC diagnosis.
文摘Recent advancement in low-cost cameras has facilitated surveillance in various developing towns in India.The video obtained from such surveillance are of low quality.Still counting vehicles from such videos are necessity to avoid traf-fic congestion and allows drivers to plan their routes more precisely.On the other hand,detecting vehicles from such low quality videos are highly challenging with vision based methodologies.In this research a meticulous attempt is made to access low-quality videos to describe traffic in Salem town in India,which is mostly an un-attempted entity by most available sources.In this work profound Detection Transformer(DETR)model is used for object(vehicle)detection.Here vehicles are anticipated in a rush-hour traffic video using a set of loss functions that carry out bipartite coordinating among estimated and information acquired on real attributes.Every frame in the traffic footage has its date and time which is detected and retrieved using Tesseract Optical Character Recognition.The date and time extricated and perceived from the input image are incorporated with the length of the recognized objects acquired from the DETR model.This furnishes the vehicles report with timestamp.Transformer Timeseries Prediction Model(TTPM)is proposed to predict the density of the vehicle for future prediction,here the regular NLP layers have been removed and the encoding temporal layer has been modified.The proposed TTPM error rate outperforms the existing models with RMSE of 4.313 and MAE of 3.812.
基金Supported by Guizhou Provincial Health Commission Science and Technology Department,No.GZWKJ2023-009Guizhou Science and Technology Department,No.QIANKEHEZHICHEN[2022]YIBAN179Guizhou Science and Technology Department,No.QIANKEHEZHICHEN[2022]YIBAN087.
文摘BACKGROUND Severe infection often results in bacteremia,which significantly increases mortality rate.Different therapeutic strategies are employed depending on whether the blood-borne infection is Gram-negative(G-)or Gram-positive(G+).However,there is no risk prediction model for assessing whether bacteremia patients are infected with G-or G+pathogens.AIM To establish a clinical prediction model to distinguish G-from G+infection.METHODS A total of 130 patients with positive blood culture admitted to a single intensive care unit were recruited,and Th1 and Th2 cytokine concentrations,routine blood test results,procalcitonin and C-reactive protein concentrations,liver and kidney function test results and coagulation function were compared between G+and Ggroups.Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO)regression analysis was employed to optimize the selection of predictive variables by running cyclic coordinate descent and K-fold cross-validation(K=10).The predictive variables selected by LASSO regression analysis were then included in multivariate logistic regression analysis to establish a prediction model.A nomogram was also constructed based on the prediction model.Calibration chart,receiver operating characteristic curve and decision curve analysis were adopted for validating the prediction model.RESULTS Age,plasma interleukin 6(IL-6)concentration and plasma aspartate aminotransferase concentration were identified from 57 measured variables as potential factors distinguishing G+from G-infection by LASSO regression analysis.Inclusion of these three variables in a multivariate logistic regression model identified age and IL-6 as significant predictors.In receiver operating characteristic curve analysis,age and IL-6 yielded an area under the curve of 0.761 and distinguished G+from G-infection with specificity of 0.756 and sensitivity of 0.692.Serum IL-6 and IL-10 levels were upregulated by more than 10-fold from baseline in the G-bacteremia group but by less than ten-fold in the G+bacteremia group.The calibration curve of the model and Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated good model fit(P>0.05).When the decision curve analysis curve indicated a risk threshold probability between 0%and 68%,a nomogram could be applied in clinical settings.CONCLUSION A simple prediction model distinguishing G-from G+bacteremia can be constructed based on reciprocal association with age and IL-6 level.
文摘Obscure gastrointestinal bleeding(OGIB)has traditionally been defined as gastrointestinal bleeding whose source remains unidentified after bidirectional endoscopy.OGIB can present as overt bleeding or occult bleeding,and small bowel lesions are the most common causes.The small bowel can be evaluated using capsule endoscopy,device-assisted enteroscopy,computed tomography enterography,or magnetic resonance enterography.Once the cause of smallbowel bleeding is identified and targeted therapeutic intervention is completed,the patient can be managed with routine visits.However,diagnostic tests may produce negative results,and some patients with small bowel bleeding,regardless of diagnostic findings,may experience rebleeding.Predicting those at risk of rebleeding can help clinicians form individualized surveillance plans.Several studies have identified different factors associated with rebleeding,and a limited number of studies have attempted to create prediction models for recurrence.This article describes prediction models developed so far for identifying patients with OGIB who are at greater risk of rebleeding.These models may aid clinicians in forming tailored patient management and surveillance.
基金Clinical Medical Center Construction Project of Hainan Province(No.2021818)Construction of Innovation Center of Academician Team of Hainan Province(No.2022136)+2 种基金Academician Innovation Platform of Hainan Province(No.00817378)Health Industry Research Project of Hainan Province(No.22A200078)Innovative Research Project of Hainan Graduate Students(No.Qhyb2022‑133)。
文摘Objective:To analyze the independent risk factors for the occurrence of moderate-to-severe metabolic-associated fatty liver disease(MAFLD),to construct a prediction model for moderate-to-severe MAFLD,and to verify the validity of the model.Methods:In the first part,278 medical examiners who were diagnosed with MAFLD in Medical Examination Center at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Hainan University from January to May 2022 were taken as the study subjects(training set),and they were divided into mild MAFLD group(200)and moderate-severe MAFLD group(78)based on ultrasound results.Demographic data and laboratory indexes were collected,and risk factors were screened by univariate and multifactor analysis.In the second part,a dichotomous logistic regression equation was used to construct a prediction model for moderate-to-severe MAFLD,and the model was visualized in a line graph.In the third part,the MAFLD population(200 people in the external validation set)from our physical examination center from November to December 2022 was collected as the moderate-to-severe MAFLD prediction model,and the risk factors in both groups were compared.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves,calibration curves,and clinical applicability of the model were plotted to represent model discrimination for internal and external validation.Results:The risk factors of moderate-to-severe MAFLD were fasting glucose(FPG),blood uric acid(UA),triglycerides(TG),triglyceride glucose index(TyG),total cholesterol(CHOL),and high-density lipoprotein(HDL-C).UA[OR=1.021,95%CI(1.015,1.027),P<0.001]and FPG[OR=1.575,95%CI(1.158,2.143),P=0.004]were independent risk factors for people with moderate to severe MAFLD.The visualized line graph model showed that UA was the factor contributing more to the risk of moderate to severe MAFLD in this model.The ROC curves showed AUC values of 0.8701,0.8686 and 0.7991 for the training set,internal validation set and external validation set,respectively.The curves almost coincided with the reference line after calibration of the model calibration degree with P>0.05 in Hosmer-Lemeshow test.The decision curve analysis(DCA)plotted by the clinical applicability of the model was higher than the two extreme curves,predicting that patients with moderate to severe MAFLD would benefit from the prediction model.Conclusion:The prediction model constructed by combining FPG with UA has higher accuracy and better clinical applicability,and can be used for clinical diagnosis.
文摘In order to realize the accurate prediction of the total output value of construction industry in the future,the grey prediction model is used to compare the measured value with the predicted value from 2012 to 2021,and based on the existing data,the total output value of construction industry in Jiangxi Province in the next five years is predicted.The results show that the grey prediction model has a good prediction effect,and the error between the predicted value and the measured value is within 14%,which provides a basis for policy adjustment and resource optimization.
文摘Objective: To explore the related factors of surgical treatment of patients with corpus luteum rupture and establish a risk prediction model of surgical treatment of corpus luteum rupture. Methods: 222 patients with corpus luteum rupture treated in Jingzhou First People’s Hospital from January 2015 to March 2022 were analyzed retrospectively, including 45 cases of surgery and 177 cases of conservative treatment. The training set and validation set were randomly assigned according to 7:3. We collected the basic information, laboratory and ultrasonic examination data of 222 patients. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the independent risk factors and combined predictors of surgical treatment of corpus luteum rupture. The risk prediction model was established and the nomogram was drawn. The discrimination and calibration of the prediction model were verified and evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test;Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the clinical effectiveness of the prediction model. Results: Univariate logistic regression showed that whole abdominal pain (OR: 2.314, 95% CI: 1.090 - 4.912), abdominal muscle tension (OR: 2.379, 95% CI: 1.112 - 5.089), adnexal mass ≥ 4 cm (OR: 3.926, 95% CI: 1.771 - 8.266), hemoglobin Conclusion: The nomogram prediction model containing three predictive variables (hemoglobin, depth of pelvic effusion under ultrasound and cervical lifting pain) can be used to predict the risk of surgical treatment in patients with corpus luteum rupture.
