As for many post-soviet countries, Kazakhstan's building code for seismic design was based on a deterministic approach. Recently, Kazakhstan seismologists are engaged to adapt the PSHA(probabilistic hazard assessm...As for many post-soviet countries, Kazakhstan's building code for seismic design was based on a deterministic approach. Recently, Kazakhstan seismologists are engaged to adapt the PSHA(probabilistic hazard assessment) procedure to the large amount of available geological, geophysical and tectonic Kazakh data and to meet standard requirements for the Eurocode 8. The new procedure has been used within National projects to develop the Probabilistic GSZ(General Seismic Zoning) maps of the Kazakhstan territory and the SMZ(Probabilistic Seismic Microzoning) maps of Almaty city. They agree with the seismic design principles of Eurocode 8 and are expressed in terms of not only seismic intensity,but also engineering parameters(peak ground acceleration PGA). The whole packet of maps has been developed by the Institute of Seismology, together with other Kazakhstan Institutions. Our group was responsible for making analysis in PGA. The GSZ maps and hazard assessment maps for SMZ in terms of PGA for return periods 475 and 2475 years are considered in the article.展开更多
Kazakhstan is currently drafting new construction regulations that comply with the major provisions of the Eurocodes.Such regulations are created on the basis of seismic zoning maps of various degrees of detail,develo...Kazakhstan is currently drafting new construction regulations that comply with the major provisions of the Eurocodes.Such regulations are created on the basis of seismic zoning maps of various degrees of detail,developed by our Institute of Seismology using a new methodological approach for Kazakhstan.The article is about creating the first normative map of the Detailed Seismic Zoning on a probabilistic foundation for the Republic of Kazakhstan’s East Kazakhstan region.We carried out the probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard using a methodology consistent with the main provisions of Eurocode 8and updated compared with that used in developing maps of Kazakhstan’s General Seismic Zoning and seismic microzoning of Almaty.The most thorough and current data accessible for the area under consideration were combined with contemporary analytical techniques.Updates have been done to not only the databases being used but also the way seismic sources were shown,including active faults now.On a scale of 1:1000000,precise seismic zoning maps of the East Kazakhstan region were created for two probabilities of exceedance:10%and 2%in 50 years in terms of peak ground accelerations and macroseismic intensities.The obtained seismic hazard distribution is generally consistent with the General Seismic Zoning of Kazakhstan’s previous findings.However,because active faults were included and a thoroughly revised catalog was used,there are more pronounced zones of increased danger along the fault in the western part of the region.In the west of the territory,acceleration values also increased due to a more accurate consideration of seismotectonic conditions.Zoning maps are the basis for developing new state building regulations of the Republic of Kazakhstan.展开更多
Probabilistic assessment of drought plays an important role in providing valuable information for evaluating water resources systems under drought conditions, and bivariate copulas are effective and efficient for the ...Probabilistic assessment of drought plays an important role in providing valuable information for evaluating water resources systems under drought conditions, and bivariate copulas are effective and efficient for the probabilistic assessment of drought based on joint distributions and/or joint return periods of drought characteristics. In this study, hydrological drought events and their characteristics (including duration and severity) in the Tien Yen River Basin of Quang Ninh province are detected using the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSFI). The BB8Copula is selected as the best-fit copula for hydrological drought duration and severity. Joint probabilities and joint return periods of drought duration and severity in the cases “and” and “or” are calculated based on the BB8Copula, which are employed for drought assessment. The results show that the drought events with 1-season or cross-quarter duration were more popular than others;joint probabilities and joint return periods of the detected drought events from 1962 to 2009, ranged from 0.2% to 92.2% and from 0.782 years to 315.414 years, respectively, in the case “and”, and ranged from 3.8% to 99.6% and from 0.724 years to 18.785 years, respectively, in the case “or”.展开更多
Probabilistic damage tolerance is a critical method to understand and communicate risk and safety.This paper reviews recent research on the probabilistic damage tolerance design for life-limited parts.The vision of th...Probabilistic damage tolerance is a critical method to understand and communicate risk and safety.This paper reviews recent research on the probabilistic damage tolerance design for life-limited parts.The vision of the probabilistic damage tolerance assessment is provided.Five core parts of the probabilistic damage tolerance method are introduced separately,including the anomaly distribution,stress processing and zone definition,fatigue and fracture calculation method,probability of failure(POF)calculation method,and the combination with residual stress induced by the manufacturing process.The above currently-available risk assessment methods provide practical tools for failure risk predictions and are applied by the airworthiness regulations.However,new problems are exposed with the development of the aeroengines.The time-consuming anomaly distribution derivation process restricts the development of the anomaly distribution,especially for the developing aviation industries with little empirical data.Additionally,the strong transient characteristic is prominent because of the significant temperature differences during the take-off and climbing periods.The complex loads then challenge the fatigue and fracture calculation model.Besides,high computational efficiency is required because various variables are considered to calculate the POF.Therefore,new technologies for the probabilistic damage tolerance assessment are provided,including the efficient anomaly distribution acquisition method based on small samples,the zone definition method considering transient process,and stress intensity factor(SIF)solutions under arbitrary stress distributions combined with the machine learning method.Then,an efficient numerical integration method for calculating failure risk based on the probability density evolution theory is proposed.Meanwhile,the influence of the manufacturing process on residual stress and the failure risk of the rotors is explored.The development of the probabilistic damage tolerance method can meet the requirement of the published airworthiness regulation Federal Aviation Regulation(FAR)33.70 and guide the modification or amendment of new regulations to ensure the safety of the high-energy rotors.展开更多
Earthquakes are one of the natural disasters that pose a major threat to human lives and property. Earthquake prediction propels the construction and development of modern seismology;however, current deterministic ear...Earthquakes are one of the natural disasters that pose a major threat to human lives and property. Earthquake prediction propels the construction and development of modern seismology;however, current deterministic earthquake prediction is limited by numerous difficulties. Identifying the temporal and spatial statistical characteristics of earthquake occurrences and constructing earthquake risk statistical prediction models have become significant;particularly for evaluating earthquake risks and addressing seismic planning requirements such as the design of cities and lifeline projects based on the obtained insight. Since the 21 st century, the occurrence of a series of strong earthquakes represented by the Wenchuan M8 earthquake in 2008 in certain low-risk prediction areas has caused seismologists to reflect on traditional seismic hazard assessment globally. This article briefly reviews the development of statistical seismology, emphatically analyzes the research results and existing problems of statistical seismology in seismic hazard assessment, and discusses the direction of its development. The analysis shows that the seismic hazard assessment based on modern earthquake catalogues in most regions should be effective. Particularly, the application of seismic hazard assessment based on ETAS(epidemic type aftershock sequence)should be the easiest and most effective method for the compilation of seismic hazard maps in large urban agglomeration areas and low seismic hazard areas with thick sedimentary zones.展开更多
In this letter,a new formulation of Lebesgue integration is used to evaluate the probabilistic static security of power system operation with uncertain renewable energy generation.The risk of power flow solutions viol...In this letter,a new formulation of Lebesgue integration is used to evaluate the probabilistic static security of power system operation with uncertain renewable energy generation.The risk of power flow solutions violating any pre-defined operation security limits is obtained by integrating a semialgebraic set composed of polynomials.With the high-order moments of historical data of renewable energy generation,the integration is reformulated as a generalized moment problem which is then relaxed to a semi-definite program(SDP).Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by numerical examples.展开更多
Earthquake is a sudden release of energy due to fault motions.The severity of the damages can be minimized by development of a culture of prevention which includes the Seismic Hazard Assessment,microzonation studies a...Earthquake is a sudden release of energy due to fault motions.The severity of the damages can be minimized by development of a culture of prevention which includes the Seismic Hazard Assessment,microzonation studies and appropriate building codes.展开更多
China’s coastal areas are densely populated,economically developed, and located in close proximity to several potential tsunami sources;therefore, tsunami risk cannot be ignored. This study assessed tsunami risk in c...China’s coastal areas are densely populated,economically developed, and located in close proximity to several potential tsunami sources;therefore, tsunami risk cannot be ignored. This study assessed tsunami risk in coastal areas of China by developing a framework for tsunami risk assessment from the perspectives of hazards,vulnerability, and exposure. First, a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment(PTHA) model was applied to estimate the potential tsunami sources in both local crustal faults and circum-Pacific subduction zones based on numerical simulations. The output of the PTHA includes tsunami wave height distributions along the coast. Then, an indicator system reflecting exposure and vulnerability to tsunamis in the coastal areas of China was established by using the entropy method and analytic hierarchy process.The PTHA findings show that the tsunami wave height is close to 3 m on the southern coast of the Bohai Sea, the Pearl River Estuary, and the Yangtze River Delta and exceeds 2 m near the Taiwan Strait for the 2000-year return period. The results of the tsunami risk assessment show that the cities at the highest risk level(level I) include Tangshan, Yantai, and Hong Kong, while cities at the high risk level(level II) include Fuzhou, Xiamen, and Quanzhou near the Taiwan Strait and many cities on the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Estuary, and the southern coast of the Bohai Sea. Our findings can provide an understanding of differences in tsunami risk between Chinese coastal cities that may be affected by tsunamis in the future.展开更多
Modern society is confronted with emerging threats from chemical,biological,and radiological(CBR)hazardous substances,which are intensively utilized in the chemical,medical,and energy industries.The atmospheric dis-pe...Modern society is confronted with emerging threats from chemical,biological,and radiological(CBR)hazardous substances,which are intensively utilized in the chemical,medical,and energy industries.The atmospheric dis-persion of released CBR hazardous pollutants can influence a large percentage of the population owing to their rapid process with extensive spatial coverage.It is important to comprehensively understand the behaviors of the released CBR pollutants in the atmosphere to fully evaluate the risks and protect public safety.In this study,we reviewed the advancements in the atmospheric transport of CBR pollutants,including the urban atmospheric boundary layer,unique concepts,and models for CBR pollutants.We underlined the development of innovative methodologies(e.g.,inverse estimation and data assimilation methods)for the atmospheric transport of acciden-tally released CBR pollutants to reduce uncertainties in emissions and accumulated errors during dispersion by combining numerical models with monitoring data.Finally,we introduced progress in quantitative risk assess-ment,including exposure assessment and dose-response relationships for CBR hazardous pollutants.A framework,source,assimilation,fundamentals,exposure,and risk(SAFER),has been proposed to integrate the key compo-nents in the risk assessment of airborne CBR hazardous pollutants.These methods and models can contribute to effective risk preparedness,prevention,evidence-based policymaking,and emergency response to airborne CBR pollutants.展开更多
基金"Development of the Map of General Seismic Zoning in the Territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan" (state registration 0113RK01142)"Development of the map of Seismic Microzoning of the Territory of Almaty City"(state registration 0115RK02701)funded within the state funding
文摘As for many post-soviet countries, Kazakhstan's building code for seismic design was based on a deterministic approach. Recently, Kazakhstan seismologists are engaged to adapt the PSHA(probabilistic hazard assessment) procedure to the large amount of available geological, geophysical and tectonic Kazakh data and to meet standard requirements for the Eurocode 8. The new procedure has been used within National projects to develop the Probabilistic GSZ(General Seismic Zoning) maps of the Kazakhstan territory and the SMZ(Probabilistic Seismic Microzoning) maps of Almaty city. They agree with the seismic design principles of Eurocode 8 and are expressed in terms of not only seismic intensity,but also engineering parameters(peak ground acceleration PGA). The whole packet of maps has been developed by the Institute of Seismology, together with other Kazakhstan Institutions. Our group was responsible for making analysis in PGA. The GSZ maps and hazard assessment maps for SMZ in terms of PGA for return periods 475 and 2475 years are considered in the article.
基金the“Seismic hazard assessment of the territories of regions and cities of Kazakhstan on a modern scientific and methodological basis”,program code F.0980,IRN OR11465449The funding source is the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan。
文摘Kazakhstan is currently drafting new construction regulations that comply with the major provisions of the Eurocodes.Such regulations are created on the basis of seismic zoning maps of various degrees of detail,developed by our Institute of Seismology using a new methodological approach for Kazakhstan.The article is about creating the first normative map of the Detailed Seismic Zoning on a probabilistic foundation for the Republic of Kazakhstan’s East Kazakhstan region.We carried out the probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard using a methodology consistent with the main provisions of Eurocode 8and updated compared with that used in developing maps of Kazakhstan’s General Seismic Zoning and seismic microzoning of Almaty.The most thorough and current data accessible for the area under consideration were combined with contemporary analytical techniques.Updates have been done to not only the databases being used but also the way seismic sources were shown,including active faults now.On a scale of 1:1000000,precise seismic zoning maps of the East Kazakhstan region were created for two probabilities of exceedance:10%and 2%in 50 years in terms of peak ground accelerations and macroseismic intensities.The obtained seismic hazard distribution is generally consistent with the General Seismic Zoning of Kazakhstan’s previous findings.However,because active faults were included and a thoroughly revised catalog was used,there are more pronounced zones of increased danger along the fault in the western part of the region.In the west of the territory,acceleration values also increased due to a more accurate consideration of seismotectonic conditions.Zoning maps are the basis for developing new state building regulations of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
文摘Probabilistic assessment of drought plays an important role in providing valuable information for evaluating water resources systems under drought conditions, and bivariate copulas are effective and efficient for the probabilistic assessment of drought based on joint distributions and/or joint return periods of drought characteristics. In this study, hydrological drought events and their characteristics (including duration and severity) in the Tien Yen River Basin of Quang Ninh province are detected using the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSFI). The BB8Copula is selected as the best-fit copula for hydrological drought duration and severity. Joint probabilities and joint return periods of drought duration and severity in the cases “and” and “or” are calculated based on the BB8Copula, which are employed for drought assessment. The results show that the drought events with 1-season or cross-quarter duration were more popular than others;joint probabilities and joint return periods of the detected drought events from 1962 to 2009, ranged from 0.2% to 92.2% and from 0.782 years to 315.414 years, respectively, in the case “and”, and ranged from 3.8% to 99.6% and from 0.724 years to 18.785 years, respectively, in the case “or”.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China,grant number U2233213.
文摘Probabilistic damage tolerance is a critical method to understand and communicate risk and safety.This paper reviews recent research on the probabilistic damage tolerance design for life-limited parts.The vision of the probabilistic damage tolerance assessment is provided.Five core parts of the probabilistic damage tolerance method are introduced separately,including the anomaly distribution,stress processing and zone definition,fatigue and fracture calculation method,probability of failure(POF)calculation method,and the combination with residual stress induced by the manufacturing process.The above currently-available risk assessment methods provide practical tools for failure risk predictions and are applied by the airworthiness regulations.However,new problems are exposed with the development of the aeroengines.The time-consuming anomaly distribution derivation process restricts the development of the anomaly distribution,especially for the developing aviation industries with little empirical data.Additionally,the strong transient characteristic is prominent because of the significant temperature differences during the take-off and climbing periods.The complex loads then challenge the fatigue and fracture calculation model.Besides,high computational efficiency is required because various variables are considered to calculate the POF.Therefore,new technologies for the probabilistic damage tolerance assessment are provided,including the efficient anomaly distribution acquisition method based on small samples,the zone definition method considering transient process,and stress intensity factor(SIF)solutions under arbitrary stress distributions combined with the machine learning method.Then,an efficient numerical integration method for calculating failure risk based on the probability density evolution theory is proposed.Meanwhile,the influence of the manufacturing process on residual stress and the failure risk of the rotors is explored.The development of the probabilistic damage tolerance method can meet the requirement of the published airworthiness regulation Federal Aviation Regulation(FAR)33.70 and guide the modification or amendment of new regulations to ensure the safety of the high-energy rotors.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U2039204)the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2018YFC1504203).
文摘Earthquakes are one of the natural disasters that pose a major threat to human lives and property. Earthquake prediction propels the construction and development of modern seismology;however, current deterministic earthquake prediction is limited by numerous difficulties. Identifying the temporal and spatial statistical characteristics of earthquake occurrences and constructing earthquake risk statistical prediction models have become significant;particularly for evaluating earthquake risks and addressing seismic planning requirements such as the design of cities and lifeline projects based on the obtained insight. Since the 21 st century, the occurrence of a series of strong earthquakes represented by the Wenchuan M8 earthquake in 2008 in certain low-risk prediction areas has caused seismologists to reflect on traditional seismic hazard assessment globally. This article briefly reviews the development of statistical seismology, emphatically analyzes the research results and existing problems of statistical seismology in seismic hazard assessment, and discusses the direction of its development. The analysis shows that the seismic hazard assessment based on modern earthquake catalogues in most regions should be effective. Particularly, the application of seismic hazard assessment based on ETAS(epidemic type aftershock sequence)should be the easiest and most effective method for the compilation of seismic hazard maps in large urban agglomeration areas and low seismic hazard areas with thick sedimentary zones.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52007163)in part by China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2020M671718).
文摘In this letter,a new formulation of Lebesgue integration is used to evaluate the probabilistic static security of power system operation with uncertain renewable energy generation.The risk of power flow solutions violating any pre-defined operation security limits is obtained by integrating a semialgebraic set composed of polynomials.With the high-order moments of historical data of renewable energy generation,the integration is reformulated as a generalized moment problem which is then relaxed to a semi-definite program(SDP).Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by numerical examples.
基金partially supported by the Chinese Academy of Sciences Visiting Professorship for Senior International Scientists(2018VMA0007)
文摘Earthquake is a sudden release of energy due to fault motions.The severity of the damages can be minimized by development of a culture of prevention which includes the Seismic Hazard Assessment,microzonation studies and appropriate building codes.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41771537)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities。
文摘China’s coastal areas are densely populated,economically developed, and located in close proximity to several potential tsunami sources;therefore, tsunami risk cannot be ignored. This study assessed tsunami risk in coastal areas of China by developing a framework for tsunami risk assessment from the perspectives of hazards,vulnerability, and exposure. First, a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment(PTHA) model was applied to estimate the potential tsunami sources in both local crustal faults and circum-Pacific subduction zones based on numerical simulations. The output of the PTHA includes tsunami wave height distributions along the coast. Then, an indicator system reflecting exposure and vulnerability to tsunamis in the coastal areas of China was established by using the entropy method and analytic hierarchy process.The PTHA findings show that the tsunami wave height is close to 3 m on the southern coast of the Bohai Sea, the Pearl River Estuary, and the Yangtze River Delta and exceeds 2 m near the Taiwan Strait for the 2000-year return period. The results of the tsunami risk assessment show that the cities at the highest risk level(level I) include Tangshan, Yantai, and Hong Kong, while cities at the high risk level(level II) include Fuzhou, Xiamen, and Quanzhou near the Taiwan Strait and many cities on the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Estuary, and the southern coast of the Bohai Sea. Our findings can provide an understanding of differences in tsunami risk between Chinese coastal cities that may be affected by tsunamis in the future.
文摘Modern society is confronted with emerging threats from chemical,biological,and radiological(CBR)hazardous substances,which are intensively utilized in the chemical,medical,and energy industries.The atmospheric dis-persion of released CBR hazardous pollutants can influence a large percentage of the population owing to their rapid process with extensive spatial coverage.It is important to comprehensively understand the behaviors of the released CBR pollutants in the atmosphere to fully evaluate the risks and protect public safety.In this study,we reviewed the advancements in the atmospheric transport of CBR pollutants,including the urban atmospheric boundary layer,unique concepts,and models for CBR pollutants.We underlined the development of innovative methodologies(e.g.,inverse estimation and data assimilation methods)for the atmospheric transport of acciden-tally released CBR pollutants to reduce uncertainties in emissions and accumulated errors during dispersion by combining numerical models with monitoring data.Finally,we introduced progress in quantitative risk assess-ment,including exposure assessment and dose-response relationships for CBR hazardous pollutants.A framework,source,assimilation,fundamentals,exposure,and risk(SAFER),has been proposed to integrate the key compo-nents in the risk assessment of airborne CBR hazardous pollutants.These methods and models can contribute to effective risk preparedness,prevention,evidence-based policymaking,and emergency response to airborne CBR pollutants.
