Estimates of PMP are needed in order to estimate the spillway design flood for dams which must be capable of safely passing the probable maximum flood (PMF). For over forty years the standard estimates of the Flood St...Estimates of PMP are needed in order to estimate the spillway design flood for dams which must be capable of safely passing the probable maximum flood (PMF). For over forty years the standard estimates of the Flood Studies Report (FSR) have almost always been used. However, since then several studies have shown that these values are too low, and new estimates for South West England and then Britain were published. This paper extends these studies to include the whole of the British Isles. The study uses 6570 station years’ data in a new method of frequency analysis that identifies part of the data which represents the long term situation. Further analyses to support the results of this approach have been produced from the in situ maximisation of 12 historic storms using World Meteorological Organisation methods. The results are broadly consistent with those obtained from frequency analysis. Values of 24 hour PMP in Britain range from 600 mm in upland areas of the Lake District, to 400 mm in parts of East Anglia. This range of values is present in Wales and parts of South West England. For Ireland the highest values are over the upland areas, such as in the Wicklow Mountains (550 mm) and SW Ireland (600 mm), while in the lowlands values around 350 mm can be expected. The question of uncertainty in estimating PMP is considered, most of which is due to the temporal and spatial shortcomings of the data. The implications for the probable maximum flood (PMF) and spillway design flood mean that widespread reassessment of dam safety should be carried out at once.展开更多
可能最大降雨(Probable Maximum Precipitation,PMP)是评价核电厂防洪安全和排水系统设计的重要参数。在分析山东省某滨海核电厂厂址区域暴雨特性和天气成因的基础上,采用当地暴雨放大方法(水汽放大法和水汽效率放大法)和暴雨移置放大...可能最大降雨(Probable Maximum Precipitation,PMP)是评价核电厂防洪安全和排水系统设计的重要参数。在分析山东省某滨海核电厂厂址区域暴雨特性和天气成因的基础上,采用当地暴雨放大方法(水汽放大法和水汽效率放大法)和暴雨移置放大法推求出厂址24 h PMP。通过计算方案的合理性检查,对比山东省可能最大24 h点降雨量等值线图和其他核电厂工程24 h PMP成果,经综合分析确定该厂址24 h PMP为1100.0 mm,研究成果可为全国类似流域的PMP研究提供参考和借鉴。展开更多
文摘Estimates of PMP are needed in order to estimate the spillway design flood for dams which must be capable of safely passing the probable maximum flood (PMF). For over forty years the standard estimates of the Flood Studies Report (FSR) have almost always been used. However, since then several studies have shown that these values are too low, and new estimates for South West England and then Britain were published. This paper extends these studies to include the whole of the British Isles. The study uses 6570 station years’ data in a new method of frequency analysis that identifies part of the data which represents the long term situation. Further analyses to support the results of this approach have been produced from the in situ maximisation of 12 historic storms using World Meteorological Organisation methods. The results are broadly consistent with those obtained from frequency analysis. Values of 24 hour PMP in Britain range from 600 mm in upland areas of the Lake District, to 400 mm in parts of East Anglia. This range of values is present in Wales and parts of South West England. For Ireland the highest values are over the upland areas, such as in the Wicklow Mountains (550 mm) and SW Ireland (600 mm), while in the lowlands values around 350 mm can be expected. The question of uncertainty in estimating PMP is considered, most of which is due to the temporal and spatial shortcomings of the data. The implications for the probable maximum flood (PMF) and spillway design flood mean that widespread reassessment of dam safety should be carried out at once.
文摘可能最大降雨(Probable Maximum Precipitation,PMP)是评价核电厂防洪安全和排水系统设计的重要参数。在分析山东省某滨海核电厂厂址区域暴雨特性和天气成因的基础上,采用当地暴雨放大方法(水汽放大法和水汽效率放大法)和暴雨移置放大法推求出厂址24 h PMP。通过计算方案的合理性检查,对比山东省可能最大24 h点降雨量等值线图和其他核电厂工程24 h PMP成果,经综合分析确定该厂址24 h PMP为1100.0 mm,研究成果可为全国类似流域的PMP研究提供参考和借鉴。
