The degradation of micropollutants in water via ultraviolet(UV)-based advanced oxidation processes(AOPs)is strongly dependent on the water matrix.Various reactive radicals(RRs)formed in UV-AOPs have different reaction...The degradation of micropollutants in water via ultraviolet(UV)-based advanced oxidation processes(AOPs)is strongly dependent on the water matrix.Various reactive radicals(RRs)formed in UV-AOPs have different reaction selectivities toward water matrices and degradation efficiencies for target micropollutants.Hence,process selection and optimization are crucial.This study developed a facilitated prediction method for the photon fluence-based rate constant for micropollutant degradation(K′_(p,MP))in various UV-AOPs by combining model simulation with portable measurement.Portable methods for measuring the scavenging capacities of the principal RRs(RRSCs)involved in UV-AOPs(i.e.,HO^(·),SO_(4)^(·-),and Cl^(·))using a mini-fluidic photoreaction system were proposed.The simulation models consisted of photochemical,quantitative structure–activity relationship,and radical concentration steady-state approximation models.The RRSCs were determined in eight test waters,and a higher RRSC was found to be associated with a more complex water matrix.Then,by taking sulfamethazine,caffeine,and carbamazepine as model micropollutants,the k′_(p,MP) values in various UV-AOPs were predicted and further verified experimentally.A lower k′_(p,MP) was found to be associated with a higher RRSC for a stronger RR competition;for example,k′_(p,MP) values of 130.9 and 332.5 m^(2) einstein^(–1),respectively,were obtained for carbamazepine degradation by UV/H_(2)O_(2) in the raw water(RRSC=9.47×10^(4) s^(-1))and sand-filtered effluent(RRSC=2.87×10^(4) s^(-1))of a drinking water treatment plant.The developed method facilitates process selection and optimization for UV-AOPs,which is essential for increasing the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of water treatment.展开更多
In this paper,a statistical cluster-based simulation channel model with a finite number of sinusoids is proposed for depicting the multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO)communications in vehicleto-everything(V2X)environ...In this paper,a statistical cluster-based simulation channel model with a finite number of sinusoids is proposed for depicting the multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO)communications in vehicleto-everything(V2X)environments.In the proposed sum-of-sinusoids(SoS)channel model,the waves that emerge from the transmitter undergo line-of-sight(LoS)and non-line-of-sight(NLoS)propagation to the receiver,which makes the model suitable for describing numerous V2X wireless communication scenarios for sixth-generation(6G).We derive expressions for the real and imaginary parts of the complex channel impulse response(CIR),which characterize the physical propagation characteristics of V2X wireless channels.The statistical properties of the real and imaginary parts of the complex CIRs,i.e.,autocorrelation functions(ACFs),Doppler power spectral densities(PSDs),cross-correlation functions(CCFs),and variances of ACFs and CCFs,are derived and discussed.Simulation results are generated and match those predicted by the underlying theory,demonstrating the accuracy of our derivation and analysis.The proposed framework and underlying theory arise as an efficient tool to investigate the statistical properties of 6G MIMO V2X communication systems.展开更多
In the existing power system with a large-scale hydrogen storage system,there are problems such as low efficiency of electric-hydrogen-electricity conversion and single modeling of the hydrogen storage system.In order...In the existing power system with a large-scale hydrogen storage system,there are problems such as low efficiency of electric-hydrogen-electricity conversion and single modeling of the hydrogen storage system.In order to improve the hydrogen utilization rate of hydrogen storage system in the process of participating in the power grid operation,and speed up the process of electric-hydrogen-electricity conversion.This article provides a detailed introduction to the mathematical and electrical models of various components of the hydrogen storage unit,and also establishes a charging and discharging efficiency model that considers the temperature and internal gas partial pressure of the hydrogen storage unit.These models are of great significance for studying and optimizing gas storage technology.Through these models,the performance of gas storage units can be better understood and improved.These studies are very helpful for improving energy storage efficiency and sustainable development.The factors affecting the charge-discharge efficiency of hydrogen storage units are analyzed.By integrating the models of each unit and considering the capacity degradation of the hydrogen storage system,we can construct an efficiency model for a large hydrogen storage system and power conversion system.In addition,the simulation models of the hydrogen production system and hydrogen consumption system were established in MATLAB/Simulink.The accuracy and effectiveness of the simulation model were proved by comparing the output voltage variation curve of the simulation with the polarization curve of the typical hydrogen production system and hydrogen consumption system.The results show that the charge-discharge efficiency of the hydrogen storage unit increases with the increase of operating temperature,and H2 and O2 partial voltage have little influence on the charge-discharge efficiency.In the process of power conversion system converter rectification operation,its efficiency decreases with the increase of temperature,while in the process of inverter operation,power conversion system efficiency increases with the increase of temperature.Combined with the efficiency of each hydrogen storage unit and power conversion system converter,the upper limit of the capacity loss of different hydrogen storage units was set.The optimal charge-discharge efficiency of the hydrogen storage system was obtained by using the Cplex solver at 36.46%and 66.34%.展开更多
Dominant technology formation is the key for the hightech industry to“cross the chasm”and gain an established foothold in the market(and hence disrupt the regime).Therefore,a stimulus-response model is proposed to i...Dominant technology formation is the key for the hightech industry to“cross the chasm”and gain an established foothold in the market(and hence disrupt the regime).Therefore,a stimulus-response model is proposed to investigate the dominant technology by exploring its formation process and mechanism.Specifically,based on complex adaptive system theory and the basic stimulus-response model,we use a combination of agent-based modeling and system dynamics modeling to capture the interactions between dominant technology and the socio-technical landscape.The results indicate the following:(i)The dynamic interaction is“stimulus-reaction-selection”,which promotes the dominant technology’s formation.(ii)The dominant technology’s formation can be described as a dynamic process in which the adaptation intensity of technology standards increases continuously until it becomes the leading technology under the dual action of internal and external mechanisms.(iii)The dominant technology’s formation in the high-tech industry is influenced by learning ability,the number of adopting users and adaptability.Therein,a“critical scale”of learning ability exists to promote the formation of leading technology:a large number of adopting users can promote the dominant technology’s formation by influencing the adaptive response of technology standards to the socio-technical landscape and the choice of technology standards by the socio-technical landscape.There is a minimum threshold and a maximum threshold for the role of adaptability in the dominant technology’s formation.(iv)The socio-technical landscape can promote the leading technology’s shaping in the high-tech industry,and different elements have different effects.This study promotes research on the formation mechanism of dominant technology in the high-tech industry,presents new perspectives and methods for researchers,and provides essential enlightenment for managers to formulate technology strategies.展开更多
Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover chang...Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover change(LUCC)is crucial for guiding the healthy and sustainable development of coastal zones.System dynamic(SD)-future land use simulation(FLUS)model,a coupled simulation model,was developed to analyze land use dynamics in China's coastal zone.This model encompasses five scenarios,namely,SSP1-RCP2.6(A),SSP2-RCP4.5(B),SSP3-RCP4.5(C),SSP4-RCP4.5(D),and SSP5-RCP8.5(E).The SD model simulates land use demand on an annual basis up to the year 2100.Subsequently,the FLUS model determines the spatial distribution of land use for the near term(2035),medium term(2050),and long term(2100).Results reveal a slowing trend in land use changes in China's coastal zone from 2000–2020.Among these changes,the expansion rate of construction land was the highest and exhibited an annual decrease.By 2100,land use predictions exhibit high accuracy,and notable differences are observed in trends across scenarios.In summary,the expansion of production,living,and ecological spaces toward the sea remains prominent.Scenario A emphasizes reduced land resource dependence,benefiting ecological land protection.Scenario B witnesses an intensified expansion of artificial wetlands.Scenario C sees substantial land needs for living and production,while Scenario D shows coastal forest and grassland shrinkage.Lastly,in Scenario E,the conflict between humans and land intensifies.This study presents pertinent recommendations for the future development,utilization,and management of coastal areas in China.The research contributes valuable scientific support for informed,long-term strategic decision making within coastal regions.展开更多
Objective: To explore the effectiveness of applying patient simulators combined with Internet Plus scenario simulation teaching models on intravenous (IV) infusion nursing education, and to provide scientific evidence...Objective: To explore the effectiveness of applying patient simulators combined with Internet Plus scenario simulation teaching models on intravenous (IV) infusion nursing education, and to provide scientific evidence for the implementation of advanced teaching models in future nursing education. Methods: Enrolled 60 nurses who took the IV infusion therapy training program in our hospital from January 2022 to December 2023 for research. 30 nurses who were trained in traditional teaching models from January to December 2022 were selected as the control group, and 30 nurses who were trained with simulation-based teaching models with methods including simulated patients, internet, online meetings which can be replayed and scenario simulation, etc. from January to December 2023 were selected as the experimental group. Evaluated the learning outcomes based on the Competency Inventory for Nursing Students (CINS), Problem-Solving Inventory (PSI), comprehensive learning ability, scientific research ability, and proficiency in the theoretical knowledge and practical skills of IV infusion therapy. Nursing quality, the incidence of IV infusion therapy complications and nurse satisfaction with different teaching models were also measured. Results: The scientific research ability, PSI scores, CINS scores, and comprehensive learning ability of the experimental group were better than those of the control group (P 0.05), and their assessment results of practical skills, nursing quality of IV infusion therapy during training, and satisfaction with teaching models were all better than those of the control group with statistical significance (P < 0.05). The incidence of IV infusion therapy complications in the experimental group was lower than that in the control group, indicating statistical significance (P < 0.05). Conclusions: Teaching models based on patient simulators combined with Internet Plus scenario simulation enable nursing students to learn more directly and practice at any time and in any place, and can improve their proficiency in IV infusion theoretical knowledge and skills (e.g. PICC catheterization), core competencies, problem-solving ability, comprehensive learning ability, scientific research ability and the ability to deal with complicated cases. Also, it helps provide high-quality nursing education, improve the nursing quality of IV therapy, reduce the incidence of related complications, and ensure the safety of patients with IV therapy.展开更多
In the R&D phase of Gravity-1(YL-1), a multi-domain modeling and simulation technology based on Modelica language was introduced, which was a recent attempt in the practice of modeling and simulation method for la...In the R&D phase of Gravity-1(YL-1), a multi-domain modeling and simulation technology based on Modelica language was introduced, which was a recent attempt in the practice of modeling and simulation method for launch vehicles in China. It realizes a complex coupling model within a unified model for different domains, so that technologists can work on one model. It ensured the success of YL-1 first launch mission, supports rapid iteration, full validation, and tight design collaboration.展开更多
In order to balance the contradiction between the demand of high precision and that of short time interval of model computing for the power plant simulator, a set of simulated mathematical models are constructed. The ...In order to balance the contradiction between the demand of high precision and that of short time interval of model computing for the power plant simulator, a set of simulated mathematical models are constructed. The model describes the cylinder wall temperature located at four key positions of the high pressure cylinder. The simulated model is confirmed to be not only simple but also precise via comparison between the simulated results and the autoptic data of a power plant.展开更多
At present,the optimization of the plunger mechanism is shale gas wells is mostly based on empirical methods,which lack a relevant rationale and often are not able to deal with the quick variations experienced by the ...At present,the optimization of the plunger mechanism is shale gas wells is mostly based on empirical methods,which lack a relevant rationale and often are not able to deal with the quick variations experienced by the production parameters of shale gas wells in comparison to conventional gas wells.In order to mitigate this issue,in the present work,a model is proposed to loosely couple the dynamics of gas inflow into shale gas wells with the dynamics of the liquid inflow.Starting from the flow law that accounts for the four stages of movement of the plunger,a dynamic model of the plunger lift based on the real wellbore trajectory is introduced.The model is then tested against 5 example wells,and it is shown that the accuracy level is higher than 90%.The well‘switch’,optimized on the basis of simulations based on such a model,is tested through on-site experiments.It is shown that,compared with the original switch configuration,the average production of the sample well can be increased by about 15%.展开更多
The purpose of this study is to verify an 1D multi-plate heat-transfer model estimating the temperature distribution on the interface between polymer electrolyte membrane and catalyst layer at cathode in single cell o...The purpose of this study is to verify an 1D multi-plate heat-transfer model estimating the temperature distribution on the interface between polymer electrolyte membrane and catalyst layer at cathode in single cell of polymer electrolyte fuel cell, which is named as reaction surface in this study, with a 3D numerical simulation model solving many governing equations on the coupling phenomena in the cell. The results from both models/simulations agreed well. The effects of initial operation temperature, flow rate, and relative humidity of supply gas on temperature distribution on the reaction surface were also investigated. It was found in both 1D and 3D simulations that, the temperature rise （i.e., Treact-Tini） of the reaction surface from initial operation temperature at 70℃ was higher than that at 80℃ irrespective of flow rate of supply gas. The effect of relative humidity of supply gas on Treact- Tini near the inlet of the cell was small. Compared to the previous studies conducted under the similar operation conditions, the Treact - Tini calculated by 1D multi-plate heat-transfer model in this study as well as numerical simulation using 3D model was reasonable.展开更多
With the aid of multi-agent based modeling approach to complex systems, the hierarchy simulation models of carrier-based aircraft catapult launch are developed. Ocean, carrier, aircraft, and atmosphere are treated as ...With the aid of multi-agent based modeling approach to complex systems, the hierarchy simulation models of carrier-based aircraft catapult launch are developed. Ocean, carrier, aircraft, and atmosphere are treated as aggregation agents, the detailed components like catapult, landing gears, and disturbances are considered as meta-agents, which belong to their aggregation agent. Thus, the model with two layers is formed i.e. the aggregation agent layer and the meta-agent layer. The information communication among all agents is described. The meta-agents within one aggregation agent communicate with each other directly by information sharing, but the meta-agents, which belong to different aggregation agents exchange their information through the aggregation layer first, and then perceive it from the sharing environment, that is the aggregation agent. Thus, not only the hierarchy model is built, but also the environment perceived by each agent is specified. Meanwhile, the problem of balancing the independency of agent and the resource consumption brought by real-time communication within multi-agent system （MAS） is resolved. Each agent involved in carrier-based aircraft catapult launch is depicted, with considering the interaction within disturbed atmospheric environment and multiple motion bodies including carrier, aircraft, and landing gears. The models of reactive agents among them are derived based on tensors, and the perceived messages and inner frameworks of each agent are characterized. Finally, some results of a simulation instance are given. The simulation and modeling of dynamic system based on multi-agent system is of benefit to express physical concepts and logical hierarchy clearly and precisely. The system model can easily draw in kinds of other agents to achieve a precise simulation of more complex system. This modeling technique makes the complex integral dynamic equations of multibodies decompose into parallel operations of single agent, and it is convenient to expand, maintain, and reuse the program codes.展开更多
As an accurate 2D/3D fabrication tool,inkjet printing technology has great potential in preparation of micro electronic devices.The morphology of droplets produced by the inkjet printer has a great impact on the accur...As an accurate 2D/3D fabrication tool,inkjet printing technology has great potential in preparation of micro electronic devices.The morphology of droplets produced by the inkjet printer has a great impact on the accuracy of deposition.In this study,the drop-on-demand(DoD)inkjet simulation model was established,and the accuracy of the simulation model was verified by corresponding experiments.The simulation result shows that the velocity of the droplet front and tail,as well as the time to disconnect from the nozzle is mainly affected by density(ρ),viscosity(μ)and surface tension(σ)of droplets.When the liquid filament is about to disconnect from the nozzle,the filament length and filament front velocity are found to have a linear correlation withσ/ρμand ln(ρ/(μσ1/2)).展开更多
In order to facilitate engineering design and coastal flooding protection, the potential storm surge induced by a typhoon is studied.Using an unstructured mesh, a coupled model which combines the advanced circulation ...In order to facilitate engineering design and coastal flooding protection, the potential storm surge induced by a typhoon is studied.Using an unstructured mesh, a coupled model which combines the advanced circulation （ ADCIRC ） hydrodynamic model and simulating waves nearshore （ SWAN ） model is applied to analyze the storm surge and waves on the coast of Jiangsu Province.The verifications of wind velocity, tidal levels and wave height show that this coupling model performs well to reflect the characteristics of the water levels and waves in the studied region.Results show that the effect of radiation stress on storm surge is significant, especially in shallow areas such as the coast of Jiangsu Province and the Yangtze estuary.By running the coupled model, the simulated potential flooding results can be employed in coastal engineering applications in the Jiangsu coastal area, such as storm surge warnings and extreme water level predictions.展开更多
Suzhou City,located in the Yangtze River Delta in China,is prone to flooding due to a complex combination of natural factors,including its monsoon climate,low elevation,and tidally influenced position,as well as inten...Suzhou City,located in the Yangtze River Delta in China,is prone to flooding due to a complex combination of natural factors,including its monsoon climate,low elevation,and tidally influenced position,as well as intensive human activities.The Large Encirclement Flood Control Project(LEFCP)was launched to cope with serious floods in the urban area.This project changed the spatiotemporal pattern of flood processes and caused spatial diversion of floods from the urban area to the outskirts of the city.Therefore,this study developed a distributed flood simulation model in order to understand this transition of flood processes.The results revealed that the LEFCP effectively protected the urban areas from floods,but the present scheduling schemes resulted in the spatial diversion of floods to the outskirts of the city.With rainstorm frequencies of 10.0%to 0.5%,the water level differences between two representative water level stations(Miduqiao(MDQ)and Fengqiao(FQ))located inside and outside the LEFCP area,ranged from 0.75 m to 0.24 m and from 1.80 m to 1.58 m,respectively.In addition,the flood safety margin at MDQ and the duration with the water level exceeding the warning water level at FQ ranged from 0.95 m to 0.43 m and from 4 h to 22 h,respectively.Rational scheduling schemes for the hydraulic facilities of the LEFCP in extreme precipitation cases were developed ac-cording to food simulations under seven scheduling scenarios.This helps to regulate the spatial flood diversion caused by the LEFCP during extreme precipitation.展开更多
A cascading failure of landslide dams caused by strong earthquakes or torrential rains in mountainous river valleys can pose great threats to people’s lives,properties,and infrastructures.In this study,based on the t...A cascading failure of landslide dams caused by strong earthquakes or torrential rains in mountainous river valleys can pose great threats to people’s lives,properties,and infrastructures.In this study,based on the three-dimensional Reynoldsaveraged Navier-Stokes equations(RANS),the renormalization group(RNG)k-εturbulence model,suspended and bed load transport equations,and the instability discriminant formula of dam breach side slope,and the explicit finite volume method(FVM),a detailed numerical simulation model for calculating the hydro-morphodynamic characteristics of cascading dam breach process has been developed.The developed numerical model can simulate the breach hydrograph and the dam breach morphology evolution during the cascading failure process of landslide dams.A model test of the breaches of two cascading landslide dams has been used as the validation case.The comparison of the calculated and measured results indicates that the breach hydrograph and the breach morphology evolution process of the upstream and downstream dams are generally consistent with each other,and the relative errors of the key breaching parameters,i.e.,the peak breach flow and the time to peak of each dam,are less than±5%.Further,the comparison of the breach hydrographs of the upstream and downstream dams shows that there is an amplification effect of the breach flood on the cascading landslide dam failures.Three key parameters,i.e.,the distance between the upstream and the downstream dams,the river channel slope,and the downstream dam height,have been used to study the flood amplification effect.The parameter sensitivity analyses show that the peak breach flow at the downstream dam decreases with increasing distance between the upstream and the downstream dams,and the downstream dam height.Further,the peak breach flow at the downstream dam first increases and then decreases with steepening of the river channel slope.When the flood caused by the upstream dam failure flows to the downstream dam,it can produce a surge wave that overtops and erodes the dam crest,resulting in a lowering of the dam crest elevation.This has an impact on the failure occurrence time and the peak breach flow of the downstream dam.The influence of the surge wave on the downstream dam failure process is related to the volume of water that overtops the dam crest and the erosion characteristics of dam material.Moreover,the cascading failure case of the Xiaogangjian and Lower Xiaogangjian landslide dams has also been used as the representative case for validating the model.In comparisons of the calculated and measured breach hydrographs and final breach morphologies,the relative errors of the key dam breaching parameters are all within±10%,which verify the rationality of the model is applicable to real-world cases.Overall,the numerical model developed in this study can provide important technical support for the risk assessment and emergency treatment of failures of cascading landslide dams.展开更多
Validating simulation model is one of the important aspects for modeling and simulation. Some methods of validating model are compared and analyzed. Several typical methods, such as TIC’s inequality coefficient, gray...Validating simulation model is one of the important aspects for modeling and simulation. Some methods of validating model are compared and analyzed. Several typical methods, such as TIC’s inequality coefficient, gray interconnected analysis, direct spectrum estimation, maximum entropy spectral estimation based on Burg or Marple, are chosen and programmed in C language. Some examples by using the program are given. The results show that the program is available and it is best to adopt multi methods for validating models.展开更多
Mountainous regions have disadvantages in economic development because of harsh physical and climatic conditions.However,winter tourism activities are one of the key components for supporting economic development in t...Mountainous regions have disadvantages in economic development because of harsh physical and climatic conditions.However,winter tourism activities are one of the key components for supporting economic development in the highlands.Establishing a ski resort area supports direct and indirect employment in a region,and it stops immigration from mountainous regions to other places.This research aimed to assess the potential ski areas using a multi criteria evaluation technique in the Van region which is located in the eastern part of Türkiye.In this context,snow cover duration,sun effect,slope,slope length,elevation,population density,distance from main roads and lake visibility were used as input factors in the decision making process.Each factor was standardized using a fuzzy technique based on existing well-known ski centers in Türkiye.The weight of inputs was defined by applying a survey to the professional skiers.The most important factors were detected as transportation opportunities and snow covers whereas,the least important factors were elevation and population density.Additionally,lake visibility was very important to make a difference from other existing facilities in the region.Therefore,it was included as constraints and lake visible areas were extracted at the final stage of the research.Potential ski areas were mapped in three levels as professional,intermediate and beginner skiers.One of the suitable areas was selected as a sample projection and for the 3D simulation of the ski investment area.Potential costs and benefits were discussed.It was found that a ski tourism area investment can be amortized in 3 years in the region.展开更多
AIGaN/GaN HEMTs are investigated by numerical simulation from the self-consistent solution of Schr6dinger-Poisson-hydrodynamic （HD） systems. The influences of polarization charge and quantum effects are considered i...AIGaN/GaN HEMTs are investigated by numerical simulation from the self-consistent solution of Schr6dinger-Poisson-hydrodynamic （HD） systems. The influences of polarization charge and quantum effects are considered in this model. Then the two-dimensional conduction band and electron distribution, electron temperature characteristics, Id versus Vd and Id versus Vg, transfer characteristics and transconductance curves are obtained. Corresponding analysis and discussion based on the simulation results are subsequently given.展开更多
Terrestrial carbon storage(CS)plays a crucial role in achieving carbon balance and mitigating global climate change.This study employs the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways(SSPs-R...Terrestrial carbon storage(CS)plays a crucial role in achieving carbon balance and mitigating global climate change.This study employs the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways(SSPs-RCPs)published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)and incorporates the Policy Control Scenario(PCS)regulated by China’s land management policies.The Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model is employed to generate a 1 km resolution land use/cover change(LUCC)dataset for China in 2030 and 2060.Based on the carbon density dataset of China’s terrestrial ecosystems,the study analyses CS changes and their relationship with land use changes spanning from 1990 to 2060.The findings indicate that the quantitative changes in land use in China from 1990 to 2020 are characterised by a reduction in the area proportion of cropland and grassland,along with an increase in the impervious surface and forest area.This changing trend is projected to continue under the PCS from 2020 to 2060.Under the SSPs-RCPs scenario,the proportion of cropland and impervious surface predominantly increases,while the proportions of forest and grassland continuously decrease.Carbon loss in China’s carbon storage from 1990 to 2020 amounted to 0.53×10^(12)kg,primarily due to the reduced area of cropland and grassland.In the SSPs-RCPs scenario,more significant carbon loss occurs,reaching a peak of8.07×10^(12)kg in the SSP4-RCP3.4 scenario.Carbon loss is mainly concentrated in the southeastern coastal area and the Beijing-TianjinHebei(BTH)region of China,with urbanisation and deforestation identified as the primary drivers.In the future,it is advisable to enhance the protection of forests and grassland while stabilising cropland areas and improving the intensity of urban land.These research findings offer valuable data support for China’s land management policy,land space optimisation,and the achievement of dual-carbon targets.展开更多
Assessing and managing ecological risks in ecologically fragile areas remain challenging at present.To get to know the ecological risk situation in Turpan City,China,this study constructed an ecological risk evaluatio...Assessing and managing ecological risks in ecologically fragile areas remain challenging at present.To get to know the ecological risk situation in Turpan City,China,this study constructed an ecological risk evaluation system to obtain the ecological risk level(ERL)and ecological risk index(ERI)based on the multi-objective linear programming-patch generation land use simulation(MOP-PLUS)model,analyzed the changes in land use and ecological risk in Turpan City from 2000 to 2020,and predicted the land use and ecological risk in 2030 under four different scenarios(business as usual(BAU),rapid economic development(RED),ecological protection priority(EPP),and eco-economic equilibrium,(EEB)).The results showed that the conversion of land use from 2000 to 2030 was mainly between unused land and the other land use types.The ERL of unused land was the highest among all the land use types.The ecological risk increased sharply from 2000 to 2010 and then decreased from 2010 to 2020.According to the value of ERI,we divided the ecological risk into seven levels by natural breakpoint method;the higher the level,the higher the ecological risk.For the four scenarios in 2030,under the EPP scenario,the area at VII level was zero,while the area at VII level reached the largest under the RED scenario.Comparing with 2020,the areas at I and II levels increased under the BAU,EPP,and EEB scenarios,while decreased under the RED scenario.The spatial distributions of ecological risk of BAU and EEB scenarios were similar,but the areas at I and II levels were larger and the areas at V and VI levels were smaller under the EEB scenario than under the BAU scenario.Therefore,the EEB scenario was the optimal development route for Turpan City.In addition,the results of spatial autocorrelation showed that the large area of unused land was the main reason affecting the spatial pattern of ecological risk under different scenarios.According to Geodetector,the dominant driving factors of ecological risk were gross domestic product rating(GDPR),soil type,population,temperature,and distance from riverbed(DFRD).The interaction between driving factor pairs amplified their influence on ecological risk.This research would help explore the low ecological risk development path for urban construction in the future.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52222002)Bureau of International Cooperation of Chinese Academy of Sciences(032GJHZ2022035MI)State Key Laboratory of Environmental Aquatic Chemistry(23Z01ESPCR).
文摘The degradation of micropollutants in water via ultraviolet(UV)-based advanced oxidation processes(AOPs)is strongly dependent on the water matrix.Various reactive radicals(RRs)formed in UV-AOPs have different reaction selectivities toward water matrices and degradation efficiencies for target micropollutants.Hence,process selection and optimization are crucial.This study developed a facilitated prediction method for the photon fluence-based rate constant for micropollutant degradation(K′_(p,MP))in various UV-AOPs by combining model simulation with portable measurement.Portable methods for measuring the scavenging capacities of the principal RRs(RRSCs)involved in UV-AOPs(i.e.,HO^(·),SO_(4)^(·-),and Cl^(·))using a mini-fluidic photoreaction system were proposed.The simulation models consisted of photochemical,quantitative structure–activity relationship,and radical concentration steady-state approximation models.The RRSCs were determined in eight test waters,and a higher RRSC was found to be associated with a more complex water matrix.Then,by taking sulfamethazine,caffeine,and carbamazepine as model micropollutants,the k′_(p,MP) values in various UV-AOPs were predicted and further verified experimentally.A lower k′_(p,MP) was found to be associated with a higher RRSC for a stronger RR competition;for example,k′_(p,MP) values of 130.9 and 332.5 m^(2) einstein^(–1),respectively,were obtained for carbamazepine degradation by UV/H_(2)O_(2) in the raw water(RRSC=9.47×10^(4) s^(-1))and sand-filtered effluent(RRSC=2.87×10^(4) s^(-1))of a drinking water treatment plant.The developed method facilitates process selection and optimization for UV-AOPs,which is essential for increasing the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of water treatment.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(No.62101274 and 62101275)Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(BK20210640)Open Research Fund of National Mobile Communications Research Laboratory Southeast University under Grant 2021D03。
文摘In this paper,a statistical cluster-based simulation channel model with a finite number of sinusoids is proposed for depicting the multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO)communications in vehicleto-everything(V2X)environments.In the proposed sum-of-sinusoids(SoS)channel model,the waves that emerge from the transmitter undergo line-of-sight(LoS)and non-line-of-sight(NLoS)propagation to the receiver,which makes the model suitable for describing numerous V2X wireless communication scenarios for sixth-generation(6G).We derive expressions for the real and imaginary parts of the complex channel impulse response(CIR),which characterize the physical propagation characteristics of V2X wireless channels.The statistical properties of the real and imaginary parts of the complex CIRs,i.e.,autocorrelation functions(ACFs),Doppler power spectral densities(PSDs),cross-correlation functions(CCFs),and variances of ACFs and CCFs,are derived and discussed.Simulation results are generated and match those predicted by the underlying theory,demonstrating the accuracy of our derivation and analysis.The proposed framework and underlying theory arise as an efficient tool to investigate the statistical properties of 6G MIMO V2X communication systems.
基金supported by the Jilin Province Higher Education TeachingReform Research Project Funding(Contract No.2020285O73B005E).
文摘In the existing power system with a large-scale hydrogen storage system,there are problems such as low efficiency of electric-hydrogen-electricity conversion and single modeling of the hydrogen storage system.In order to improve the hydrogen utilization rate of hydrogen storage system in the process of participating in the power grid operation,and speed up the process of electric-hydrogen-electricity conversion.This article provides a detailed introduction to the mathematical and electrical models of various components of the hydrogen storage unit,and also establishes a charging and discharging efficiency model that considers the temperature and internal gas partial pressure of the hydrogen storage unit.These models are of great significance for studying and optimizing gas storage technology.Through these models,the performance of gas storage units can be better understood and improved.These studies are very helpful for improving energy storage efficiency and sustainable development.The factors affecting the charge-discharge efficiency of hydrogen storage units are analyzed.By integrating the models of each unit and considering the capacity degradation of the hydrogen storage system,we can construct an efficiency model for a large hydrogen storage system and power conversion system.In addition,the simulation models of the hydrogen production system and hydrogen consumption system were established in MATLAB/Simulink.The accuracy and effectiveness of the simulation model were proved by comparing the output voltage variation curve of the simulation with the polarization curve of the typical hydrogen production system and hydrogen consumption system.The results show that the charge-discharge efficiency of the hydrogen storage unit increases with the increase of operating temperature,and H2 and O2 partial voltage have little influence on the charge-discharge efficiency.In the process of power conversion system converter rectification operation,its efficiency decreases with the increase of temperature,while in the process of inverter operation,power conversion system efficiency increases with the increase of temperature.Combined with the efficiency of each hydrogen storage unit and power conversion system converter,the upper limit of the capacity loss of different hydrogen storage units was set.The optimal charge-discharge efficiency of the hydrogen storage system was obtained by using the Cplex solver at 36.46%and 66.34%.
基金supported by the Shanghai Philosophy and Social Science Foundation(2022ECK004)Shanghai Soft Science Research Project(23692123400)。
文摘Dominant technology formation is the key for the hightech industry to“cross the chasm”and gain an established foothold in the market(and hence disrupt the regime).Therefore,a stimulus-response model is proposed to investigate the dominant technology by exploring its formation process and mechanism.Specifically,based on complex adaptive system theory and the basic stimulus-response model,we use a combination of agent-based modeling and system dynamics modeling to capture the interactions between dominant technology and the socio-technical landscape.The results indicate the following:(i)The dynamic interaction is“stimulus-reaction-selection”,which promotes the dominant technology’s formation.(ii)The dominant technology’s formation can be described as a dynamic process in which the adaptation intensity of technology standards increases continuously until it becomes the leading technology under the dual action of internal and external mechanisms.(iii)The dominant technology’s formation in the high-tech industry is influenced by learning ability,the number of adopting users and adaptability.Therein,a“critical scale”of learning ability exists to promote the formation of leading technology:a large number of adopting users can promote the dominant technology’s formation by influencing the adaptive response of technology standards to the socio-technical landscape and the choice of technology standards by the socio-technical landscape.There is a minimum threshold and a maximum threshold for the role of adaptability in the dominant technology’s formation.(iv)The socio-technical landscape can promote the leading technology’s shaping in the high-tech industry,and different elements have different effects.This study promotes research on the formation mechanism of dominant technology in the high-tech industry,presents new perspectives and methods for researchers,and provides essential enlightenment for managers to formulate technology strategies.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.42176221,41901133)Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.XDA19060205)Seed project of Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.YIC-E3518907)。
文摘Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover change(LUCC)is crucial for guiding the healthy and sustainable development of coastal zones.System dynamic(SD)-future land use simulation(FLUS)model,a coupled simulation model,was developed to analyze land use dynamics in China's coastal zone.This model encompasses five scenarios,namely,SSP1-RCP2.6(A),SSP2-RCP4.5(B),SSP3-RCP4.5(C),SSP4-RCP4.5(D),and SSP5-RCP8.5(E).The SD model simulates land use demand on an annual basis up to the year 2100.Subsequently,the FLUS model determines the spatial distribution of land use for the near term(2035),medium term(2050),and long term(2100).Results reveal a slowing trend in land use changes in China's coastal zone from 2000–2020.Among these changes,the expansion rate of construction land was the highest and exhibited an annual decrease.By 2100,land use predictions exhibit high accuracy,and notable differences are observed in trends across scenarios.In summary,the expansion of production,living,and ecological spaces toward the sea remains prominent.Scenario A emphasizes reduced land resource dependence,benefiting ecological land protection.Scenario B witnesses an intensified expansion of artificial wetlands.Scenario C sees substantial land needs for living and production,while Scenario D shows coastal forest and grassland shrinkage.Lastly,in Scenario E,the conflict between humans and land intensifies.This study presents pertinent recommendations for the future development,utilization,and management of coastal areas in China.The research contributes valuable scientific support for informed,long-term strategic decision making within coastal regions.
文摘Objective: To explore the effectiveness of applying patient simulators combined with Internet Plus scenario simulation teaching models on intravenous (IV) infusion nursing education, and to provide scientific evidence for the implementation of advanced teaching models in future nursing education. Methods: Enrolled 60 nurses who took the IV infusion therapy training program in our hospital from January 2022 to December 2023 for research. 30 nurses who were trained in traditional teaching models from January to December 2022 were selected as the control group, and 30 nurses who were trained with simulation-based teaching models with methods including simulated patients, internet, online meetings which can be replayed and scenario simulation, etc. from January to December 2023 were selected as the experimental group. Evaluated the learning outcomes based on the Competency Inventory for Nursing Students (CINS), Problem-Solving Inventory (PSI), comprehensive learning ability, scientific research ability, and proficiency in the theoretical knowledge and practical skills of IV infusion therapy. Nursing quality, the incidence of IV infusion therapy complications and nurse satisfaction with different teaching models were also measured. Results: The scientific research ability, PSI scores, CINS scores, and comprehensive learning ability of the experimental group were better than those of the control group (P 0.05), and their assessment results of practical skills, nursing quality of IV infusion therapy during training, and satisfaction with teaching models were all better than those of the control group with statistical significance (P < 0.05). The incidence of IV infusion therapy complications in the experimental group was lower than that in the control group, indicating statistical significance (P < 0.05). Conclusions: Teaching models based on patient simulators combined with Internet Plus scenario simulation enable nursing students to learn more directly and practice at any time and in any place, and can improve their proficiency in IV infusion theoretical knowledge and skills (e.g. PICC catheterization), core competencies, problem-solving ability, comprehensive learning ability, scientific research ability and the ability to deal with complicated cases. Also, it helps provide high-quality nursing education, improve the nursing quality of IV therapy, reduce the incidence of related complications, and ensure the safety of patients with IV therapy.
文摘In the R&D phase of Gravity-1(YL-1), a multi-domain modeling and simulation technology based on Modelica language was introduced, which was a recent attempt in the practice of modeling and simulation method for launch vehicles in China. It realizes a complex coupling model within a unified model for different domains, so that technologists can work on one model. It ensured the success of YL-1 first launch mission, supports rapid iteration, full validation, and tight design collaboration.
文摘In order to balance the contradiction between the demand of high precision and that of short time interval of model computing for the power plant simulator, a set of simulated mathematical models are constructed. The model describes the cylinder wall temperature located at four key positions of the high pressure cylinder. The simulated model is confirmed to be not only simple but also precise via comparison between the simulated results and the autoptic data of a power plant.
基金The authors would like to acknowledge the National Natural Science Fund Project(62173049)for Key Projectthe Open Fund Project“Study on Transient Flow Mechanism of Fluid Accumulation in Shale Gas Wells”of the Sinopec Key Laboratory of Shale Oil/Gas Exploration and Production Technology.
文摘At present,the optimization of the plunger mechanism is shale gas wells is mostly based on empirical methods,which lack a relevant rationale and often are not able to deal with the quick variations experienced by the production parameters of shale gas wells in comparison to conventional gas wells.In order to mitigate this issue,in the present work,a model is proposed to loosely couple the dynamics of gas inflow into shale gas wells with the dynamics of the liquid inflow.Starting from the flow law that accounts for the four stages of movement of the plunger,a dynamic model of the plunger lift based on the real wellbore trajectory is introduced.The model is then tested against 5 example wells,and it is shown that the accuracy level is higher than 90%.The well‘switch’,optimized on the basis of simulations based on such a model,is tested through on-site experiments.It is shown that,compared with the original switch configuration,the average production of the sample well can be increased by about 15%.
文摘The purpose of this study is to verify an 1D multi-plate heat-transfer model estimating the temperature distribution on the interface between polymer electrolyte membrane and catalyst layer at cathode in single cell of polymer electrolyte fuel cell, which is named as reaction surface in this study, with a 3D numerical simulation model solving many governing equations on the coupling phenomena in the cell. The results from both models/simulations agreed well. The effects of initial operation temperature, flow rate, and relative humidity of supply gas on temperature distribution on the reaction surface were also investigated. It was found in both 1D and 3D simulations that, the temperature rise （i.e., Treact-Tini） of the reaction surface from initial operation temperature at 70℃ was higher than that at 80℃ irrespective of flow rate of supply gas. The effect of relative humidity of supply gas on Treact- Tini near the inlet of the cell was small. Compared to the previous studies conducted under the similar operation conditions, the Treact - Tini calculated by 1D multi-plate heat-transfer model in this study as well as numerical simulation using 3D model was reasonable.
基金Aeronautical Science Foundation of China (2006ZA51004)
文摘With the aid of multi-agent based modeling approach to complex systems, the hierarchy simulation models of carrier-based aircraft catapult launch are developed. Ocean, carrier, aircraft, and atmosphere are treated as aggregation agents, the detailed components like catapult, landing gears, and disturbances are considered as meta-agents, which belong to their aggregation agent. Thus, the model with two layers is formed i.e. the aggregation agent layer and the meta-agent layer. The information communication among all agents is described. The meta-agents within one aggregation agent communicate with each other directly by information sharing, but the meta-agents, which belong to different aggregation agents exchange their information through the aggregation layer first, and then perceive it from the sharing environment, that is the aggregation agent. Thus, not only the hierarchy model is built, but also the environment perceived by each agent is specified. Meanwhile, the problem of balancing the independency of agent and the resource consumption brought by real-time communication within multi-agent system （MAS） is resolved. Each agent involved in carrier-based aircraft catapult launch is depicted, with considering the interaction within disturbed atmospheric environment and multiple motion bodies including carrier, aircraft, and landing gears. The models of reactive agents among them are derived based on tensors, and the perceived messages and inner frameworks of each agent are characterized. Finally, some results of a simulation instance are given. The simulation and modeling of dynamic system based on multi-agent system is of benefit to express physical concepts and logical hierarchy clearly and precisely. The system model can easily draw in kinds of other agents to achieve a precise simulation of more complex system. This modeling technique makes the complex integral dynamic equations of multibodies decompose into parallel operations of single agent, and it is convenient to expand, maintain, and reuse the program codes.
基金supported by the Tsinghua University–Toyota Research Center Project。
文摘As an accurate 2D/3D fabrication tool,inkjet printing technology has great potential in preparation of micro electronic devices.The morphology of droplets produced by the inkjet printer has a great impact on the accuracy of deposition.In this study,the drop-on-demand(DoD)inkjet simulation model was established,and the accuracy of the simulation model was verified by corresponding experiments.The simulation result shows that the velocity of the droplet front and tail,as well as the time to disconnect from the nozzle is mainly affected by density(ρ),viscosity(μ)and surface tension(σ)of droplets.When the liquid filament is about to disconnect from the nozzle,the filament length and filament front velocity are found to have a linear correlation withσ/ρμand ln(ρ/(μσ1/2)).
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51209040,51279134)the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(No.BK2012341)+1 种基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.SJLX_0087)the Research Fund of Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute(No.Y213012)
文摘In order to facilitate engineering design and coastal flooding protection, the potential storm surge induced by a typhoon is studied.Using an unstructured mesh, a coupled model which combines the advanced circulation （ ADCIRC ） hydrodynamic model and simulating waves nearshore （ SWAN ） model is applied to analyze the storm surge and waves on the coast of Jiangsu Province.The verifications of wind velocity, tidal levels and wave height show that this coupling model performs well to reflect the characteristics of the water levels and waves in the studied region.Results show that the effect of radiation stress on storm surge is significant, especially in shallow areas such as the coast of Jiangsu Province and the Yangtze estuary.By running the coupled model, the simulated potential flooding results can be employed in coastal engineering applications in the Jiangsu coastal area, such as storm surge warnings and extreme water level predictions.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants No.42001025 and 42001014)the Belt and Road Special Foundation of the State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering(Grant No.2021491211)the Natural Science Foundation of Ningbo Municipality(Grant No.2023J133).
文摘Suzhou City,located in the Yangtze River Delta in China,is prone to flooding due to a complex combination of natural factors,including its monsoon climate,low elevation,and tidally influenced position,as well as intensive human activities.The Large Encirclement Flood Control Project(LEFCP)was launched to cope with serious floods in the urban area.This project changed the spatiotemporal pattern of flood processes and caused spatial diversion of floods from the urban area to the outskirts of the city.Therefore,this study developed a distributed flood simulation model in order to understand this transition of flood processes.The results revealed that the LEFCP effectively protected the urban areas from floods,but the present scheduling schemes resulted in the spatial diversion of floods to the outskirts of the city.With rainstorm frequencies of 10.0%to 0.5%,the water level differences between two representative water level stations(Miduqiao(MDQ)and Fengqiao(FQ))located inside and outside the LEFCP area,ranged from 0.75 m to 0.24 m and from 1.80 m to 1.58 m,respectively.In addition,the flood safety margin at MDQ and the duration with the water level exceeding the warning water level at FQ ranged from 0.95 m to 0.43 m and from 4 h to 22 h,respectively.Rational scheduling schemes for the hydraulic facilities of the LEFCP in extreme precipitation cases were developed ac-cording to food simulations under seven scheduling scenarios.This helps to regulate the spatial flood diversion caused by the LEFCP during extreme precipitation.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U22A20602,U2040221).
文摘A cascading failure of landslide dams caused by strong earthquakes or torrential rains in mountainous river valleys can pose great threats to people’s lives,properties,and infrastructures.In this study,based on the three-dimensional Reynoldsaveraged Navier-Stokes equations(RANS),the renormalization group(RNG)k-εturbulence model,suspended and bed load transport equations,and the instability discriminant formula of dam breach side slope,and the explicit finite volume method(FVM),a detailed numerical simulation model for calculating the hydro-morphodynamic characteristics of cascading dam breach process has been developed.The developed numerical model can simulate the breach hydrograph and the dam breach morphology evolution during the cascading failure process of landslide dams.A model test of the breaches of two cascading landslide dams has been used as the validation case.The comparison of the calculated and measured results indicates that the breach hydrograph and the breach morphology evolution process of the upstream and downstream dams are generally consistent with each other,and the relative errors of the key breaching parameters,i.e.,the peak breach flow and the time to peak of each dam,are less than±5%.Further,the comparison of the breach hydrographs of the upstream and downstream dams shows that there is an amplification effect of the breach flood on the cascading landslide dam failures.Three key parameters,i.e.,the distance between the upstream and the downstream dams,the river channel slope,and the downstream dam height,have been used to study the flood amplification effect.The parameter sensitivity analyses show that the peak breach flow at the downstream dam decreases with increasing distance between the upstream and the downstream dams,and the downstream dam height.Further,the peak breach flow at the downstream dam first increases and then decreases with steepening of the river channel slope.When the flood caused by the upstream dam failure flows to the downstream dam,it can produce a surge wave that overtops and erodes the dam crest,resulting in a lowering of the dam crest elevation.This has an impact on the failure occurrence time and the peak breach flow of the downstream dam.The influence of the surge wave on the downstream dam failure process is related to the volume of water that overtops the dam crest and the erosion characteristics of dam material.Moreover,the cascading failure case of the Xiaogangjian and Lower Xiaogangjian landslide dams has also been used as the representative case for validating the model.In comparisons of the calculated and measured breach hydrographs and final breach morphologies,the relative errors of the key dam breaching parameters are all within±10%,which verify the rationality of the model is applicable to real-world cases.Overall,the numerical model developed in this study can provide important technical support for the risk assessment and emergency treatment of failures of cascading landslide dams.
文摘Validating simulation model is one of the important aspects for modeling and simulation. Some methods of validating model are compared and analyzed. Several typical methods, such as TIC’s inequality coefficient, gray interconnected analysis, direct spectrum estimation, maximum entropy spectral estimation based on Burg or Marple, are chosen and programmed in C language. Some examples by using the program are given. The results show that the program is available and it is best to adopt multi methods for validating models.
文摘Mountainous regions have disadvantages in economic development because of harsh physical and climatic conditions.However,winter tourism activities are one of the key components for supporting economic development in the highlands.Establishing a ski resort area supports direct and indirect employment in a region,and it stops immigration from mountainous regions to other places.This research aimed to assess the potential ski areas using a multi criteria evaluation technique in the Van region which is located in the eastern part of Türkiye.In this context,snow cover duration,sun effect,slope,slope length,elevation,population density,distance from main roads and lake visibility were used as input factors in the decision making process.Each factor was standardized using a fuzzy technique based on existing well-known ski centers in Türkiye.The weight of inputs was defined by applying a survey to the professional skiers.The most important factors were detected as transportation opportunities and snow covers whereas,the least important factors were elevation and population density.Additionally,lake visibility was very important to make a difference from other existing facilities in the region.Therefore,it was included as constraints and lake visible areas were extracted at the final stage of the research.Potential ski areas were mapped in three levels as professional,intermediate and beginner skiers.One of the suitable areas was selected as a sample projection and for the 3D simulation of the ski investment area.Potential costs and benefits were discussed.It was found that a ski tourism area investment can be amortized in 3 years in the region.
文摘AIGaN/GaN HEMTs are investigated by numerical simulation from the self-consistent solution of Schr6dinger-Poisson-hydrodynamic （HD） systems. The influences of polarization charge and quantum effects are considered in this model. Then the two-dimensional conduction band and electron distribution, electron temperature characteristics, Id versus Vd and Id versus Vg, transfer characteristics and transconductance curves are obtained. Corresponding analysis and discussion based on the simulation results are subsequently given.
基金Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41971219,41571168)Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province(No.2020JJ4372)Philosophy and Social Science Fund Project of Hunan Province(No.18ZDB015)。
文摘Terrestrial carbon storage(CS)plays a crucial role in achieving carbon balance and mitigating global climate change.This study employs the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways(SSPs-RCPs)published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)and incorporates the Policy Control Scenario(PCS)regulated by China’s land management policies.The Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model is employed to generate a 1 km resolution land use/cover change(LUCC)dataset for China in 2030 and 2060.Based on the carbon density dataset of China’s terrestrial ecosystems,the study analyses CS changes and their relationship with land use changes spanning from 1990 to 2060.The findings indicate that the quantitative changes in land use in China from 1990 to 2020 are characterised by a reduction in the area proportion of cropland and grassland,along with an increase in the impervious surface and forest area.This changing trend is projected to continue under the PCS from 2020 to 2060.Under the SSPs-RCPs scenario,the proportion of cropland and impervious surface predominantly increases,while the proportions of forest and grassland continuously decrease.Carbon loss in China’s carbon storage from 1990 to 2020 amounted to 0.53×10^(12)kg,primarily due to the reduced area of cropland and grassland.In the SSPs-RCPs scenario,more significant carbon loss occurs,reaching a peak of8.07×10^(12)kg in the SSP4-RCP3.4 scenario.Carbon loss is mainly concentrated in the southeastern coastal area and the Beijing-TianjinHebei(BTH)region of China,with urbanisation and deforestation identified as the primary drivers.In the future,it is advisable to enhance the protection of forests and grassland while stabilising cropland areas and improving the intensity of urban land.These research findings offer valuable data support for China’s land management policy,land space optimisation,and the achievement of dual-carbon targets.
基金financed by the Third Comprehensive Scientific Survey Project of Xinjiang(2021xjkk1003)the Youth Innovation and Cultivation Talent Project of Shihezi University(CXFZ202201,CXPY202201)+1 种基金the Annual Youth Doctoral Program of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region'Tianchi Elite'Introduction Plan(CZ002302,CZ002305)the High Level Talent Research Launch Project of Shihezi University(RCZK202316,RCZK202321).
文摘Assessing and managing ecological risks in ecologically fragile areas remain challenging at present.To get to know the ecological risk situation in Turpan City,China,this study constructed an ecological risk evaluation system to obtain the ecological risk level(ERL)and ecological risk index(ERI)based on the multi-objective linear programming-patch generation land use simulation(MOP-PLUS)model,analyzed the changes in land use and ecological risk in Turpan City from 2000 to 2020,and predicted the land use and ecological risk in 2030 under four different scenarios(business as usual(BAU),rapid economic development(RED),ecological protection priority(EPP),and eco-economic equilibrium,(EEB)).The results showed that the conversion of land use from 2000 to 2030 was mainly between unused land and the other land use types.The ERL of unused land was the highest among all the land use types.The ecological risk increased sharply from 2000 to 2010 and then decreased from 2010 to 2020.According to the value of ERI,we divided the ecological risk into seven levels by natural breakpoint method;the higher the level,the higher the ecological risk.For the four scenarios in 2030,under the EPP scenario,the area at VII level was zero,while the area at VII level reached the largest under the RED scenario.Comparing with 2020,the areas at I and II levels increased under the BAU,EPP,and EEB scenarios,while decreased under the RED scenario.The spatial distributions of ecological risk of BAU and EEB scenarios were similar,but the areas at I and II levels were larger and the areas at V and VI levels were smaller under the EEB scenario than under the BAU scenario.Therefore,the EEB scenario was the optimal development route for Turpan City.In addition,the results of spatial autocorrelation showed that the large area of unused land was the main reason affecting the spatial pattern of ecological risk under different scenarios.According to Geodetector,the dominant driving factors of ecological risk were gross domestic product rating(GDPR),soil type,population,temperature,and distance from riverbed(DFRD).The interaction between driving factor pairs amplified their influence on ecological risk.This research would help explore the low ecological risk development path for urban construction in the future.
