Responses of late spring （21 April 20 May） rainfall to the upper tropospheric cooling over East Asia are investigated with a regional climate model based on Laboratoire de M6t6orologie Dynamique Zoom （LMDZ4-RCM）. ...Responses of late spring （21 April 20 May） rainfall to the upper tropospheric cooling over East Asia are investigated with a regional climate model based on Laboratoire de M6t6orologie Dynamique Zoom （LMDZ4-RCM）. A control experiment is performed with two runs driven by the mean ERA-40 data during 1958-1977 and 1981 2000, respectively. The model reproduces the major decadal-scale circulation changes in late spring over East Asia, including a cooling in the upper troposphere and an anomalous meridional cell. Accordingly, the precipitation decrease is also captured in the southeast of the upper-level cooling region. To quantify the role of the upper-level cooling in the drought mechanism, a sensitivity experiment is further conducted with the cooling imposed in the upper troposphere. It is demonstrated that the upper-level cooling can generate the anomalous meridional cell and consequently the drought to the southeast of the cooling center. Therefore, upper tropospheric cooling should have played a dominant role in the observed late spring drought over Southeast China in recent decades.展开更多
In the spring of 2021,southwestern China(SWC)experienced extreme drought,accompanied by the highest seasonal-mean temperature record since 1961.This drought event occurred in the decaying phase of a La Niña event...In the spring of 2021,southwestern China(SWC)experienced extreme drought,accompanied by the highest seasonal-mean temperature record since 1961.This drought event occurred in the decaying phase of a La Niña event with negative geopotential height anomalies over the Philippine Sea,which is distinct from the historical perspective.Historically,spring drought over SWC is often linked to El Niño and strong western North Pacific subtropical high.Here,we show that the extreme drought in the spring of 2021 may be mainly driven by the atmospheric internal variability and amplified by the warming trend.Specifically,the evaporation increase due to the high temperature accounts for about 30%of drought severity,with the contributions of its linear trend portion being nearly 20%and the interannual variability portion being about 10%.Since the sea surface temperature forcing from the tropical central and eastern Pacific played a minor role in the occurrence of drought,it is a challenge for a climate model to capture the 2021 SWC drought beyond one-month lead times.展开更多
2023年春季,我国西南地区发生了严重的气象干旱,对当地社会经济造成严重影响。为深入认识这次干旱事件的成因、并为未来西南地区春旱的预测提供科学依据,本文利用站点观测数据、美国国家环境预测中心和国家大气研究中心(National Center...2023年春季,我国西南地区发生了严重的气象干旱,对当地社会经济造成严重影响。为深入认识这次干旱事件的成因、并为未来西南地区春旱的预测提供科学依据,本文利用站点观测数据、美国国家环境预测中心和国家大气研究中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research,NCEP/NCAR)再分析数据、美国国家海洋和大气管理局(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,NOAA)的海表温度等,采用T-N波作用通量和合成分析等方法,从海温和热带大气季节内振荡(Madden-Julian Oscillation,MJO)的角度深入探讨此次春旱成因。结果表明:(1)2023年我国西南春旱是高温干旱复合事件,3月干旱发生在中部,4月干旱加剧并向西扩展,5月干旱持续。(2)3月北太平洋的马蹄形海温异常导致西风急流偏南偏西,抑制了西南地区的降水。(3)4月印度洋暖海温通过Kelvin波导致孟加拉湾附近的反气旋式环流异常,西北太平洋暖海温通过Rossby波导致南海至菲律宾的气旋式环流异常,造成西南地区南部出现偏北风,导致水汽辐散,加剧干旱。(4)5月MJO长时间维持在西太平洋,通过Gill响应引发南海至菲律宾对流层低层的气旋异常,减少偏南水汽的输送,从而使得西南干旱持续。展开更多
Guangzhou spring rainfall mainly exhibits interannual variation of Quasi-biannual and interdecadal variation of 30 yrs, and is in the period of weak rainfall at interdecadal time scale. SST anomalies （SSTA） of Nino3...Guangzhou spring rainfall mainly exhibits interannual variation of Quasi-biannual and interdecadal variation of 30 yrs, and is in the period of weak rainfall at interdecadal time scale. SST anomalies （SSTA） of Nino3 are the strongest precursor of Guangzhou spring rainfall. They have significant positive correlation from previous November and persist stably to April. Nino3 SSTA in the previous winter affects Guangzhou spring rainfall through North Pacific subtropical high and low wind in spring. When Nino3 SSTA is positive in the previous winter, sprirg subtropical high is intense and westward, South China is located in the area of ascending airflow at the edge of the subtropical high, and water vapor transporting to South China is intensified by anticyclone circulation to the east of the Philippines. So Guangzhou spring rainfall is heavy. When Nino3 SSTA is negative, the subtropical high is weak and eastward, South China is far away from the subtropical high and is located in the area of descending airflow, and water vapor transportirg to South China is weak because low-level cyclonic circulation controls areas to the east of the Philippines and north wind prevails in South China. So Guangzhou spring rainfall is weak ard spring drought is resulted.展开更多
【目的】干旱是影响中国农业生产的主要自然灾害之一。东北地区作为中国最大的玉米生产基地,气候变化背景下干旱频发重发严重影响玉米的高产稳产。评估未来气候情景下东北地区春玉米干旱发生风险及其空间格局变化,为该地区春玉米防旱避...【目的】干旱是影响中国农业生产的主要自然灾害之一。东北地区作为中国最大的玉米生产基地,气候变化背景下干旱频发重发严重影响玉米的高产稳产。评估未来气候情景下东北地区春玉米干旱发生风险及其空间格局变化,为该地区春玉米防旱避灾以及保障其高产稳产提供科学依据。【方法】选取东北地区春玉米潜在种植区为研究区域,基于ISIMIP输出的SSP1-2.6、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.53种气候情景的1981—2060年逐日气象资料以及53个农业气象观测站1981—2014年春玉米生育期资料,选取作物水分亏缺指数(crop water deficit index,CWDI)为农业干旱指标,分析东北地区春玉米不同生育时期不同等级干旱时空分布特征,选择最优概率理论分布函数进行干旱指数序列的概率估算,基于信息扩散理论估算得到各点春玉米不同等级干旱风险,构建干旱风险指数,评估未来不同气候情景下东北地区春玉米干旱发生风险及未来各等级风险区的空间格局变化。【结果】(1)1981—2014年东北地区春玉米全生育期干旱指数总体呈西南高东北低的特征,表现为内蒙古东四盟(57.3%)>黑龙江省(40.6%)>辽宁省(39.5%)>吉林省(38.9%)。(2)研究区域春玉米生育中期干旱指数整体高于生育前期和生育后期。其中,2030s和2050s研究区域春玉米生育前期干旱风险概率为轻旱>中旱≈重旱>特旱,生育中期干旱风险概率为特旱>重旱>轻旱≈中旱,生育后期干旱风险概率轻旱>中旱>重旱>特旱。(3)1981—2060年,SSP1-2.6低排放情景下,东北地区春玉米较高等级干旱风险发生概率将减少,极高和较高干旱风险区明显向西南收缩,2030s和2050s面积占比分别减少5.4%和9.6%、0.8%和2.5%;而SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5两个高排放情景下,较高等级干旱风险发生概率增加,且较高干旱风险区向东北扩张,2050s面积占比分别增加8.5%和9.7%。【结论】基于干旱风险指数的未来干旱风险时空分布格局中,东北春玉米干旱风险呈现由西南向东北减少的特征,且未来SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5情景下,较高干旱风险区向东北方向扩张,需关注作物关键生育时期提出针对性的防御措施。展开更多
气候变化背景下,为探索黄土高原半干旱区春玉米光合生理过程对土壤水分、温度变化的响应机制,以春玉米为研究对象,于2017年在中国气象局定西干旱气象与生态环境试验基地进行盆栽水分控制试验,在春玉米七叶期设置对照处理(Control,简称...气候变化背景下,为探索黄土高原半干旱区春玉米光合生理过程对土壤水分、温度变化的响应机制,以春玉米为研究对象,于2017年在中国气象局定西干旱气象与生态环境试验基地进行盆栽水分控制试验,在春玉米七叶期设置对照处理(Control,简称“CK处理”,土壤水分为田间持水量的80%)和控水处理(Water Stress,简称“WS处理”,土壤水分为田间持水量的45%~50%)以及3个叶片温度梯度,分别为适宜温度25℃、高温35℃及极端高温40℃(CK处理对应CK-25、CK-35及CK-40;WS处理对应WS-25、WS-35及WS-40),分析春玉米叶片气体交换参数和水分利用效率对土壤水分、温度变化的响应特征。结果表明:在一定的光合有效辐射(Photosynthetically Active Radiation,PAR)范围内,春玉米叶片净光合速率(Net Photosynthetic Rate,Pn)随PAR的增加逐渐增大。水分供给不足时,随着PAR不断增加,WS处理春玉米叶片气孔限制因素向非气孔限制因素转变,光合作用出现明显的光抑制,WS-35处理叶片Pn最大,WS处理叶片Pn在PAR高值区明显小于CK处理,且不同温度梯度下叶片达到光饱和的PAR下降;与CK-40处理相比,WS-40处理春玉米叶片Pn随PAR增大显著减小(P<0.05),光合作用表现出明显的光抑制。水分供给充足时,蒸腾速率(Transpiration Rate,Tr)随温度升高而增大;水分供给不足时,WS-40处理春玉米叶片Tr、气孔限制(Ls)较CK-40处理显著降低(P<0.05),胞间CO_(2)浓度(Ci)显著增加(P<0.05)。WS-40处理春玉米Tr随着PAR的增大而减小,水分利用效率(Water Use Efficiency,WUE)较CK处理高。该研究可为气候变化背景下黄土高原半干旱区春玉米应对极端气候生理特征变化提供参考。展开更多
Groundwater extraction is used to alleviate drought in many habitats. However, widespread drought decreases spring discharge and there is a need to integrate climate change research into resource management and action...Groundwater extraction is used to alleviate drought in many habitats. However, widespread drought decreases spring discharge and there is a need to integrate climate change research into resource management and action. Accurate estimates of groundwater discharge may be valuable in improving decision support systems of hydrogeological resource exploitation. The present study performs a forecast for groundwater discharge in Aquifer?s Cervialto Mountains(southern Italy). A time series starting in 1883 was the basis for longterm predictions. An Ensemble Discharge Prediction(EDis P) was applied, and the progress of the discharge ensemble forecast was inferred with the aid of an Exponential Smoothing(ES) model initialized at different annual times. EDisP-ES hindcast model experiments were tested, and discharge plume-patterns forecast was assessed with horizon placed in the year 2044. A 46-year cycle pattern was identified by comparing simulations and observations, which is essential for the forecasting purpose. ED is P-ES performed an ensemble mean path for the coming decades that indicates a discharge regime within ± 1 standard deviation around the mean value of 4.1 m^3 s^(-1). These fluctuations are comparable with those observed in the period 1961-1980 and further back, with changepoints detectable around the years 2025 and 2035. Temporary drought conditions are expected after the year 2030.展开更多
文摘Responses of late spring （21 April 20 May） rainfall to the upper tropospheric cooling over East Asia are investigated with a regional climate model based on Laboratoire de M6t6orologie Dynamique Zoom （LMDZ4-RCM）. A control experiment is performed with two runs driven by the mean ERA-40 data during 1958-1977 and 1981 2000, respectively. The model reproduces the major decadal-scale circulation changes in late spring over East Asia, including a cooling in the upper troposphere and an anomalous meridional cell. Accordingly, the precipitation decrease is also captured in the southeast of the upper-level cooling region. To quantify the role of the upper-level cooling in the drought mechanism, a sensitivity experiment is further conducted with the cooling imposed in the upper troposphere. It is demonstrated that the upper-level cooling can generate the anomalous meridional cell and consequently the drought to the southeast of the cooling center. Therefore, upper tropospheric cooling should have played a dominant role in the observed late spring drought over Southeast China in recent decades.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2017YFA0605004)Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research(Grant No.2020B0301030004)+2 种基金National Natural Science Foundations of China(Grant No.42175056)the China Meteorological Administration Innovation and Development Project(CXFZ2022J031)the Joint Open Project of KLME&CIC-FEMD,NUIST(Grant No.KLME202102).
文摘In the spring of 2021,southwestern China(SWC)experienced extreme drought,accompanied by the highest seasonal-mean temperature record since 1961.This drought event occurred in the decaying phase of a La Niña event with negative geopotential height anomalies over the Philippine Sea,which is distinct from the historical perspective.Historically,spring drought over SWC is often linked to El Niño and strong western North Pacific subtropical high.Here,we show that the extreme drought in the spring of 2021 may be mainly driven by the atmospheric internal variability and amplified by the warming trend.Specifically,the evaporation increase due to the high temperature accounts for about 30%of drought severity,with the contributions of its linear trend portion being nearly 20%and the interannual variability portion being about 10%.Since the sea surface temperature forcing from the tropical central and eastern Pacific played a minor role in the occurrence of drought,it is a challenge for a climate model to capture the 2021 SWC drought beyond one-month lead times.
文摘2023年春季,我国西南地区发生了严重的气象干旱,对当地社会经济造成严重影响。为深入认识这次干旱事件的成因、并为未来西南地区春旱的预测提供科学依据,本文利用站点观测数据、美国国家环境预测中心和国家大气研究中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research,NCEP/NCAR)再分析数据、美国国家海洋和大气管理局(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,NOAA)的海表温度等,采用T-N波作用通量和合成分析等方法,从海温和热带大气季节内振荡(Madden-Julian Oscillation,MJO)的角度深入探讨此次春旱成因。结果表明:(1)2023年我国西南春旱是高温干旱复合事件,3月干旱发生在中部,4月干旱加剧并向西扩展,5月干旱持续。(2)3月北太平洋的马蹄形海温异常导致西风急流偏南偏西,抑制了西南地区的降水。(3)4月印度洋暖海温通过Kelvin波导致孟加拉湾附近的反气旋式环流异常,西北太平洋暖海温通过Rossby波导致南海至菲律宾的气旋式环流异常,造成西南地区南部出现偏北风,导致水汽辐散,加剧干旱。(4)5月MJO长时间维持在西太平洋,通过Gill响应引发南海至菲律宾对流层低层的气旋异常,减少偏南水汽的输送,从而使得西南干旱持续。
基金Research on the Technologies of Predicting Drought Prospects in Guangdong, a plannedproject for Guangdong Province (2005B32601007)
文摘Guangzhou spring rainfall mainly exhibits interannual variation of Quasi-biannual and interdecadal variation of 30 yrs, and is in the period of weak rainfall at interdecadal time scale. SST anomalies （SSTA） of Nino3 are the strongest precursor of Guangzhou spring rainfall. They have significant positive correlation from previous November and persist stably to April. Nino3 SSTA in the previous winter affects Guangzhou spring rainfall through North Pacific subtropical high and low wind in spring. When Nino3 SSTA is positive in the previous winter, sprirg subtropical high is intense and westward, South China is located in the area of ascending airflow at the edge of the subtropical high, and water vapor transporting to South China is intensified by anticyclone circulation to the east of the Philippines. So Guangzhou spring rainfall is heavy. When Nino3 SSTA is negative, the subtropical high is weak and eastward, South China is far away from the subtropical high and is located in the area of descending airflow, and water vapor transportirg to South China is weak because low-level cyclonic circulation controls areas to the east of the Philippines and north wind prevails in South China. So Guangzhou spring rainfall is weak ard spring drought is resulted.
文摘【目的】干旱是影响中国农业生产的主要自然灾害之一。东北地区作为中国最大的玉米生产基地,气候变化背景下干旱频发重发严重影响玉米的高产稳产。评估未来气候情景下东北地区春玉米干旱发生风险及其空间格局变化,为该地区春玉米防旱避灾以及保障其高产稳产提供科学依据。【方法】选取东北地区春玉米潜在种植区为研究区域,基于ISIMIP输出的SSP1-2.6、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.53种气候情景的1981—2060年逐日气象资料以及53个农业气象观测站1981—2014年春玉米生育期资料,选取作物水分亏缺指数(crop water deficit index,CWDI)为农业干旱指标,分析东北地区春玉米不同生育时期不同等级干旱时空分布特征,选择最优概率理论分布函数进行干旱指数序列的概率估算,基于信息扩散理论估算得到各点春玉米不同等级干旱风险,构建干旱风险指数,评估未来不同气候情景下东北地区春玉米干旱发生风险及未来各等级风险区的空间格局变化。【结果】(1)1981—2014年东北地区春玉米全生育期干旱指数总体呈西南高东北低的特征,表现为内蒙古东四盟(57.3%)>黑龙江省(40.6%)>辽宁省(39.5%)>吉林省(38.9%)。(2)研究区域春玉米生育中期干旱指数整体高于生育前期和生育后期。其中,2030s和2050s研究区域春玉米生育前期干旱风险概率为轻旱>中旱≈重旱>特旱,生育中期干旱风险概率为特旱>重旱>轻旱≈中旱,生育后期干旱风险概率轻旱>中旱>重旱>特旱。(3)1981—2060年,SSP1-2.6低排放情景下,东北地区春玉米较高等级干旱风险发生概率将减少,极高和较高干旱风险区明显向西南收缩,2030s和2050s面积占比分别减少5.4%和9.6%、0.8%和2.5%;而SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5两个高排放情景下,较高等级干旱风险发生概率增加,且较高干旱风险区向东北扩张,2050s面积占比分别增加8.5%和9.7%。【结论】基于干旱风险指数的未来干旱风险时空分布格局中,东北春玉米干旱风险呈现由西南向东北减少的特征,且未来SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5情景下,较高干旱风险区向东北方向扩张,需关注作物关键生育时期提出针对性的防御措施。
文摘气候变化背景下,为探索黄土高原半干旱区春玉米光合生理过程对土壤水分、温度变化的响应机制,以春玉米为研究对象,于2017年在中国气象局定西干旱气象与生态环境试验基地进行盆栽水分控制试验,在春玉米七叶期设置对照处理(Control,简称“CK处理”,土壤水分为田间持水量的80%)和控水处理(Water Stress,简称“WS处理”,土壤水分为田间持水量的45%~50%)以及3个叶片温度梯度,分别为适宜温度25℃、高温35℃及极端高温40℃(CK处理对应CK-25、CK-35及CK-40;WS处理对应WS-25、WS-35及WS-40),分析春玉米叶片气体交换参数和水分利用效率对土壤水分、温度变化的响应特征。结果表明:在一定的光合有效辐射(Photosynthetically Active Radiation,PAR)范围内,春玉米叶片净光合速率(Net Photosynthetic Rate,Pn)随PAR的增加逐渐增大。水分供给不足时,随着PAR不断增加,WS处理春玉米叶片气孔限制因素向非气孔限制因素转变,光合作用出现明显的光抑制,WS-35处理叶片Pn最大,WS处理叶片Pn在PAR高值区明显小于CK处理,且不同温度梯度下叶片达到光饱和的PAR下降;与CK-40处理相比,WS-40处理春玉米叶片Pn随PAR增大显著减小(P<0.05),光合作用表现出明显的光抑制。水分供给充足时,蒸腾速率(Transpiration Rate,Tr)随温度升高而增大;水分供给不足时,WS-40处理春玉米叶片Tr、气孔限制(Ls)较CK-40处理显著降低(P<0.05),胞间CO_(2)浓度(Ci)显著增加(P<0.05)。WS-40处理春玉米Tr随着PAR的增大而减小,水分利用效率(Water Use Efficiency,WUE)较CK处理高。该研究可为气候变化背景下黄土高原半干旱区春玉米应对极端气候生理特征变化提供参考。
文摘Groundwater extraction is used to alleviate drought in many habitats. However, widespread drought decreases spring discharge and there is a need to integrate climate change research into resource management and action. Accurate estimates of groundwater discharge may be valuable in improving decision support systems of hydrogeological resource exploitation. The present study performs a forecast for groundwater discharge in Aquifer?s Cervialto Mountains(southern Italy). A time series starting in 1883 was the basis for longterm predictions. An Ensemble Discharge Prediction(EDis P) was applied, and the progress of the discharge ensemble forecast was inferred with the aid of an Exponential Smoothing(ES) model initialized at different annual times. EDisP-ES hindcast model experiments were tested, and discharge plume-patterns forecast was assessed with horizon placed in the year 2044. A 46-year cycle pattern was identified by comparing simulations and observations, which is essential for the forecasting purpose. ED is P-ES performed an ensemble mean path for the coming decades that indicates a discharge regime within ± 1 standard deviation around the mean value of 4.1 m^3 s^(-1). These fluctuations are comparable with those observed in the period 1961-1980 and further back, with changepoints detectable around the years 2025 and 2035. Temporary drought conditions are expected after the year 2030.
