[Objective] The aim was to establish Elman neural network model to predict the dynamic changes of temperature. [Method] Considering the inherent nature of temperature, and dy dint of the temperature in Chongqing durin...[Objective] The aim was to establish Elman neural network model to predict the dynamic changes of temperature. [Method] Considering the inherent nature of temperature, and dy dint of the temperature in Chongqing during 1951-2010, the Elman artificial neural network model was applied to predict the temperature. [Result] This simulation result suggested that the relative error was small and can have a good simulation to the future temperature changes. [Conclusion] The prediction result can guide agricultural production and further apply to the field of pricing the weather derivative products.展开更多
A temperature forecasting model was created firstly based on the Kalman filter method,and then used to predict the highest and lowest temperature in Nanchang station from October 27 to November 1,2017.Finally,accordin...A temperature forecasting model was created firstly based on the Kalman filter method,and then used to predict the highest and lowest temperature in Nanchang station from October 27 to November 1,2017.Finally,according to the empirical forecasting method,guidance forecasts were established for the northern,central,and southern parts of Nanchang City.After inspection,it was found that the temperature prediction model established based on the Kalman filter method in Nanchang station had good prediction performance,and especially in the 24-hour forecast,it had advantages over the European Center.The accuracy of low temperature forecast was better than that of high temperature forecast.展开更多
Offline bias correction of numerical marine forecast products is an effective post-processing means to improve forecast accuracy. Two offline bias correction methods for sea surface temperature(SST) forecasts have bee...Offline bias correction of numerical marine forecast products is an effective post-processing means to improve forecast accuracy. Two offline bias correction methods for sea surface temperature(SST) forecasts have been developed in this study: a backpropagation neural network(BPNN) algorithm, and a hybrid algorithm of empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis and BPNN(named EOF-BPNN). The performances of these two methods are validated using bias correction experiments implemented in the South China Sea(SCS), in which the target dataset is a six-year(2003–2008) daily mean time series of SST retrospective forecasts for one-day in advance, obtained from a regional ocean forecast and analysis system called the China Ocean Reanalysis(CORA),and the reference time series is the gridded satellite-based SST. The bias-correction results show that the two methods have similar good skills;however, the EOF-BPNN method is more than five times faster than the BPNN method. Before applying the bias correction, the basin-wide climatological error of the daily mean CORA SST retrospective forecasts in the SCS is up to-3°C;now, it is minimized substantially, falling within the error range(±0.5°C) of the satellite SST data.展开更多
The 3-hour-interval prediction of ground-level temperature from +00 h out to +45 h in South Korea (38 stations) is performed using the DLM (dynamic linear model) in order to eliminate the systematic error of numerical...The 3-hour-interval prediction of ground-level temperature from +00 h out to +45 h in South Korea (38 stations) is performed using the DLM (dynamic linear model) in order to eliminate the systematic error of numerical model forecasts. Numerical model forecasts and observations are used as input values of the DLM. According to the comparison of the DLM forecasts to the KFM (Kalman filter model) forecasts with RMSE and bias, the DLM is useful to improve the accuracy of prediction.展开更多
The correction of model forecast is an important step in evaluating weather forecast results.In recent years,post-processing models based on deep learning have become prominent.In this paper,a deep learning model name...The correction of model forecast is an important step in evaluating weather forecast results.In recent years,post-processing models based on deep learning have become prominent.In this paper,a deep learning model named EDConvLSTM based on encoder-decoder structure and ConvLSTM is developed,which appears to be able to effectively correct numerical weather forecasts.Compared with traditional post-processing methods and convolutional neural networks,ED-ConvLSTM has strong collaborative extraction ability to effectively extract the temporal and spatial features of numerical weather forecasts and fit the complex nonlinear relationship between forecast field and observation field.In this paper,the post-processing method of ED-ConvLSTM for 2 m temperature prediction is tested using The International Grand Global Ensemble dataset and ERA5-Land data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF).Root mean square error and temperature prediction accuracy are used as evaluation indexes to compare ED-ConvLSTM with the method of model output statistics,convolutional neural network postprocessing methods,and the original prediction by the ECMWF.The results show that the correction effect of EDConvLSTM is better than that of the other two postprocessing methods in terms of the two indexes,especially in the long forecast time.展开更多
Based on NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data, climate trend rate and other methods are used to quantitatively analyze the change trend of China's summer observed temperature in 1983—2012. Moreover, a dynamics-statist...Based on NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data, climate trend rate and other methods are used to quantitatively analyze the change trend of China's summer observed temperature in 1983—2012. Moreover, a dynamics-statistics-combined seasonal forecast method with optimal multi-factor portfolio is applied to analyze the impact of this trend on summer temperature forecast. The results show that: in the three decades, the summer temperature shows a clear upward trend under the condition of global warming, especially over South China, East China, Northeast China and Xinjiang Region, and the trend rate of national average summer temperature was 0.27℃ per decade. However, it is found that the current business model forecast(Coupled Global Climate Model) of National Climate Centre is unable to forecast summer warming trends in China, so that the post-processing forecast effect of dynamics-statistics-combined method is relatively poor. In this study, observed temperatures are processed first by removing linear fitting trend, and then adding it after forecast to offset the deficiency of model forecast indirectly. After test, ACC average value in the latest decade was 0.44 through dynamics-statistics-combined independent sample return forecast. The temporal correlation(TCC) between forecast and observed temperature was significantly improved compared with direct forecast results in most regions, and effectively improved the skill of the dynamics-statistics-combined forecast method in seasonal temperature forecast.展开更多
An operational ocean circulation-surface wave coupled forecasting system for the seas off China and adjacent areas（OCFS-C） is developed based on parallelized circulation and wave models. It has been in operation sin...An operational ocean circulation-surface wave coupled forecasting system for the seas off China and adjacent areas（OCFS-C） is developed based on parallelized circulation and wave models. It has been in operation since November 1, 2007. In this paper we comprehensively present the simulation and verification of the system, whose distinguishing feature is that the wave-induced mixing is coupled in the circulation model. In particular, with nested technique the resolution in the China＇s seas has been updated to（1/24）° from the global model with（1/2）°resolution. Besides, daily remote sensing sea surface temperature（SST） data have been assimilated into the model to generate a hot restart field for OCFS-C. Moreover, inter-comparisons between forecasting and independent observational data are performed to evaluate the effectiveness of OCFS-C in upper-ocean quantities predictions, including SST, mixed layer depth（MLD） and subsurface temperature. Except in conventional statistical metrics, non-dimensional skill scores（SS） is also used to evaluate forecast skill. Observations from buoys and Argo profiles are used for lead time and real time validations, which give a large SS value（more than 0.90）. Besides, prediction skill for the seasonal variation of SST is confirmed. Comparisons of subsurface temperatures with Argo profiles data indicate that OCFS-C has low skill in predicting subsurface temperatures between 100 m and 150 m. Nevertheless, inter-comparisons of MLD reveal that the MLD from model is shallower than that from Argo profiles by about 12 m, i.e., OCFS-C is successful and steady in MLD predictions. Validation of 1-d, 2-d and 3-d forecasting SST shows that our operational ocean circulation-surface wave coupled forecasting model has reasonable accuracy in the upper ocean.展开更多
Concrete temperature control during dam construction(e.g.,concrete placement and curing)is important for cracking prevention.In this study,a short-term temperature forecast model for mass concrete cooling control is d...Concrete temperature control during dam construction(e.g.,concrete placement and curing)is important for cracking prevention.In this study,a short-term temperature forecast model for mass concrete cooling control is developed using artificial neural networks(ANN).The development workflow for the forecast model consists of data integration,data preprocessing,model construction,and model application.More than 80000 monitoring samples are collected by the developed intelligent cooling control system in the Baihetan Arch Dam,which is the largest hydropower project in the world under construction.Machine learning algorithms,including ANN,support vector machines,long short-term memory networks,and decision tree structures,are compared in temperature prediction,and the ANN is determined to be the best for the forecast model.Furthermore,an ANN framework with two hidden layers is determined to forecast concrete temperature at intervals of one day.The root mean square error of the forecast precision is 0.15∘C on average.The application on concrete blocks verifies that the developed ANN-based forecast model can be used for intelligent cooling control during mass concrete construction.展开更多
Weather prediction is essential to the daily life of human beings. Current numerical weather prediction models such as the Global Forecast System(GFS) are still subject to substantial forecast biases and rarely consid...Weather prediction is essential to the daily life of human beings. Current numerical weather prediction models such as the Global Forecast System(GFS) are still subject to substantial forecast biases and rarely consider the impact of atmospheric aerosol, despite the consensus that aerosol is one of the most important sources of uncertainty in the climate system. Here we demonstrate that atmospheric aerosol is one of the important drivers biasing daily temperature prediction. By comparing observations and the GFS prediction, we find that the monthly-averaged bias in the 24-h temperature forecast varies between ± 1.5 ℃ in regions influenced by atmospheric aerosol. The biases depend on the properties of aerosol, the underlying land surface, and aerosol–cloud interactions over oceans. It is also revealed that forecast errors are rapidly magnified over time in regions featuring high aerosol loadings. Our study provides direct ‘‘observational" evidence of aerosol’s impacts on daily weather forecast, and bridges the gaps between the weather forecast and climate science regarding the understanding of the impact of atmospheric aerosol.展开更多
For a century or so, the Hong Kong Observatory （HKO） has been providing temperature forecast for the whole of Hong Kong with the HKO Headquarters as the reference location. In recent decades, due to spreading of pop...For a century or so, the Hong Kong Observatory （HKO） has been providing temperature forecast for the whole of Hong Kong with the HKO Headquarters as the reference location. In recent decades, due to spreading of population from the main urban center to satellite towns, there is an increasing demand for regional temperature forecasts. To support such provision, the HKO has developed a regression model to provide objective guidance to forecasters in formulating forecasts of maximum and minimum temperatures for the next day at various locations in Hong Kong. In this paper, the regression model is presented, together with the assessment of its performance. Based on the verification of one year of forecasts, it is found that the root mean square errors （RMSEs） of maximum （minimum） temperature forecasts are from about 1.3 to 2.1 （1.1 to 1.4） degrees, respectively. The regression model is shown to have generally out-performed the operational regional spectral model then operated by HKO. Regional temperature forecast methods of other meteorological or research centers are also surveyed. Equipped with the regression model, the HKO has launched an online regional temperature forecast service for the next day in Hong Kong since March 2008.展开更多
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(61001125)~~
文摘[Objective] The aim was to establish Elman neural network model to predict the dynamic changes of temperature. [Method] Considering the inherent nature of temperature, and dy dint of the temperature in Chongqing during 1951-2010, the Elman artificial neural network model was applied to predict the temperature. [Result] This simulation result suggested that the relative error was small and can have a good simulation to the future temperature changes. [Conclusion] The prediction result can guide agricultural production and further apply to the field of pricing the weather derivative products.
文摘A temperature forecasting model was created firstly based on the Kalman filter method,and then used to predict the highest and lowest temperature in Nanchang station from October 27 to November 1,2017.Finally,according to the empirical forecasting method,guidance forecasts were established for the northern,central,and southern parts of Nanchang City.After inspection,it was found that the temperature prediction model established based on the Kalman filter method in Nanchang station had good prediction performance,and especially in the 24-hour forecast,it had advantages over the European Center.The accuracy of low temperature forecast was better than that of high temperature forecast.
基金The National Key Research and Development Program of China under contract No.2018YFC1406206the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.41876014.
文摘Offline bias correction of numerical marine forecast products is an effective post-processing means to improve forecast accuracy. Two offline bias correction methods for sea surface temperature(SST) forecasts have been developed in this study: a backpropagation neural network(BPNN) algorithm, and a hybrid algorithm of empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis and BPNN(named EOF-BPNN). The performances of these two methods are validated using bias correction experiments implemented in the South China Sea(SCS), in which the target dataset is a six-year(2003–2008) daily mean time series of SST retrospective forecasts for one-day in advance, obtained from a regional ocean forecast and analysis system called the China Ocean Reanalysis(CORA),and the reference time series is the gridded satellite-based SST. The bias-correction results show that the two methods have similar good skills;however, the EOF-BPNN method is more than five times faster than the BPNN method. Before applying the bias correction, the basin-wide climatological error of the daily mean CORA SST retrospective forecasts in the SCS is up to-3°C;now, it is minimized substantially, falling within the error range(±0.5°C) of the satellite SST data.
文摘The 3-hour-interval prediction of ground-level temperature from +00 h out to +45 h in South Korea (38 stations) is performed using the DLM (dynamic linear model) in order to eliminate the systematic error of numerical model forecasts. Numerical model forecasts and observations are used as input values of the DLM. According to the comparison of the DLM forecasts to the KFM (Kalman filter model) forecasts with RMSE and bias, the DLM is useful to improve the accuracy of prediction.
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China(2017YFC1502104)Beijige Foundation of NJIAS(BJG202103)。
文摘The correction of model forecast is an important step in evaluating weather forecast results.In recent years,post-processing models based on deep learning have become prominent.In this paper,a deep learning model named EDConvLSTM based on encoder-decoder structure and ConvLSTM is developed,which appears to be able to effectively correct numerical weather forecasts.Compared with traditional post-processing methods and convolutional neural networks,ED-ConvLSTM has strong collaborative extraction ability to effectively extract the temporal and spatial features of numerical weather forecasts and fit the complex nonlinear relationship between forecast field and observation field.In this paper,the post-processing method of ED-ConvLSTM for 2 m temperature prediction is tested using The International Grand Global Ensemble dataset and ERA5-Land data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF).Root mean square error and temperature prediction accuracy are used as evaluation indexes to compare ED-ConvLSTM with the method of model output statistics,convolutional neural network postprocessing methods,and the original prediction by the ECMWF.The results show that the correction effect of EDConvLSTM is better than that of the other two postprocessing methods in terms of the two indexes,especially in the long forecast time.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(4157508241530531+1 种基金41605048)Special Scientific Research Project for Public Interest(GYHY201306021)
文摘Based on NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data, climate trend rate and other methods are used to quantitatively analyze the change trend of China's summer observed temperature in 1983—2012. Moreover, a dynamics-statistics-combined seasonal forecast method with optimal multi-factor portfolio is applied to analyze the impact of this trend on summer temperature forecast. The results show that: in the three decades, the summer temperature shows a clear upward trend under the condition of global warming, especially over South China, East China, Northeast China and Xinjiang Region, and the trend rate of national average summer temperature was 0.27℃ per decade. However, it is found that the current business model forecast(Coupled Global Climate Model) of National Climate Centre is unable to forecast summer warming trends in China, so that the post-processing forecast effect of dynamics-statistics-combined method is relatively poor. In this study, observed temperatures are processed first by removing linear fitting trend, and then adding it after forecast to offset the deficiency of model forecast indirectly. After test, ACC average value in the latest decade was 0.44 through dynamics-statistics-combined independent sample return forecast. The temporal correlation(TCC) between forecast and observed temperature was significantly improved compared with direct forecast results in most regions, and effectively improved the skill of the dynamics-statistics-combined forecast method in seasonal temperature forecast.
基金China-Korea Cooperation Project on the development of oceanic monitoring and prediction system on nuclear safetythe Project of the National Programme on Global Change and Air-sea Interaction under contract No.GASI-03-IPOVAI-05
文摘An operational ocean circulation-surface wave coupled forecasting system for the seas off China and adjacent areas（OCFS-C） is developed based on parallelized circulation and wave models. It has been in operation since November 1, 2007. In this paper we comprehensively present the simulation and verification of the system, whose distinguishing feature is that the wave-induced mixing is coupled in the circulation model. In particular, with nested technique the resolution in the China＇s seas has been updated to（1/24）° from the global model with（1/2）°resolution. Besides, daily remote sensing sea surface temperature（SST） data have been assimilated into the model to generate a hot restart field for OCFS-C. Moreover, inter-comparisons between forecasting and independent observational data are performed to evaluate the effectiveness of OCFS-C in upper-ocean quantities predictions, including SST, mixed layer depth（MLD） and subsurface temperature. Except in conventional statistical metrics, non-dimensional skill scores（SS） is also used to evaluate forecast skill. Observations from buoys and Argo profiles are used for lead time and real time validations, which give a large SS value（more than 0.90）. Besides, prediction skill for the seasonal variation of SST is confirmed. Comparisons of subsurface temperatures with Argo profiles data indicate that OCFS-C has low skill in predicting subsurface temperatures between 100 m and 150 m. Nevertheless, inter-comparisons of MLD reveal that the MLD from model is shallower than that from Argo profiles by about 12 m, i.e., OCFS-C is successful and steady in MLD predictions. Validation of 1-d, 2-d and 3-d forecasting SST shows that our operational ocean circulation-surface wave coupled forecasting model has reasonable accuracy in the upper ocean.
基金This research was supported by the China Three Gorges Corporation Research Program(Nos.WDD/0490,WDD/0578,and BHT/0805)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51979146).
文摘Concrete temperature control during dam construction(e.g.,concrete placement and curing)is important for cracking prevention.In this study,a short-term temperature forecast model for mass concrete cooling control is developed using artificial neural networks(ANN).The development workflow for the forecast model consists of data integration,data preprocessing,model construction,and model application.More than 80000 monitoring samples are collected by the developed intelligent cooling control system in the Baihetan Arch Dam,which is the largest hydropower project in the world under construction.Machine learning algorithms,including ANN,support vector machines,long short-term memory networks,and decision tree structures,are compared in temperature prediction,and the ANN is determined to be the best for the forecast model.Furthermore,an ANN framework with two hidden layers is determined to forecast concrete temperature at intervals of one day.The root mean square error of the forecast precision is 0.15∘C on average.The application on concrete blocks verifies that the developed ANN-based forecast model can be used for intelligent cooling control during mass concrete construction.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41725020 and 41922038)。
文摘Weather prediction is essential to the daily life of human beings. Current numerical weather prediction models such as the Global Forecast System(GFS) are still subject to substantial forecast biases and rarely consider the impact of atmospheric aerosol, despite the consensus that aerosol is one of the most important sources of uncertainty in the climate system. Here we demonstrate that atmospheric aerosol is one of the important drivers biasing daily temperature prediction. By comparing observations and the GFS prediction, we find that the monthly-averaged bias in the 24-h temperature forecast varies between ± 1.5 ℃ in regions influenced by atmospheric aerosol. The biases depend on the properties of aerosol, the underlying land surface, and aerosol–cloud interactions over oceans. It is also revealed that forecast errors are rapidly magnified over time in regions featuring high aerosol loadings. Our study provides direct ‘‘observational" evidence of aerosol’s impacts on daily weather forecast, and bridges the gaps between the weather forecast and climate science regarding the understanding of the impact of atmospheric aerosol.
文摘For a century or so, the Hong Kong Observatory （HKO） has been providing temperature forecast for the whole of Hong Kong with the HKO Headquarters as the reference location. In recent decades, due to spreading of population from the main urban center to satellite towns, there is an increasing demand for regional temperature forecasts. To support such provision, the HKO has developed a regression model to provide objective guidance to forecasters in formulating forecasts of maximum and minimum temperatures for the next day at various locations in Hong Kong. In this paper, the regression model is presented, together with the assessment of its performance. Based on the verification of one year of forecasts, it is found that the root mean square errors （RMSEs） of maximum （minimum） temperature forecasts are from about 1.3 to 2.1 （1.1 to 1.4） degrees, respectively. The regression model is shown to have generally out-performed the operational regional spectral model then operated by HKO. Regional temperature forecast methods of other meteorological or research centers are also surveyed. Equipped with the regression model, the HKO has launched an online regional temperature forecast service for the next day in Hong Kong since March 2008.
