A dual-arm nursing robot can gently lift patients and transfer them between a bed and a wheelchair.With its lightweight design,high load-bearing capacity,and smooth surface,the coupled-drive joint is particularly well...A dual-arm nursing robot can gently lift patients and transfer them between a bed and a wheelchair.With its lightweight design,high load-bearing capacity,and smooth surface,the coupled-drive joint is particularly well suited for these robots.However,the coupled nature of the joint disrupts the direct linear relationship between the input and output torques,posing challenges for dynamic modeling and practical applications.This study investigated the transmission mechanism of this joint and employed the Lagrangian method to construct a dynamic model of its internal dynamics.Building on this foundation,the Newton-Euler method was used to develop a dynamic model for the entire robotic arm.A continuously differentiable friction model was incorporated to reduce the vibrations caused by speed transitions to zero.An experimental method was designed to compensate for gravity,inertia,and modeling errors to identify the parameters of the friction model.This method establishes a mapping relationship between the friction force and motor current.In addition,a Fourier series-based excitation trajectory was developed to facilitate the identification of the dynamic model parameters of the robotic arm.Trajectory tracking experiments were conducted during the experimental validation phase,demonstrating the high accuracy of the dynamic model and the parameter identification method for the robotic arm.This study presents a dynamic modeling and parameter identification method for coupled-drive joint robotic arms,thereby establishing a foundation for motion control in humanoid nursing robots.展开更多
The tensile-shear interactive damage(TSID)model is a novel and powerful constitutive model for rock-like materials.This study proposes a methodology to calibrate the TSID model parameters to simulate sandstone.The bas...The tensile-shear interactive damage(TSID)model is a novel and powerful constitutive model for rock-like materials.This study proposes a methodology to calibrate the TSID model parameters to simulate sandstone.The basic parameters of sandstone are determined through a series of static and dynamic tests,including uniaxial compression,Brazilian disc,triaxial compression under varying confining pressures,hydrostatic compression,and dynamic compression and tensile tests with a split Hopkinson pressure bar.Based on the sandstone test results from this study and previous research,a step-by-step procedure for parameter calibration is outlined,which accounts for the categories of the strength surface,equation of state(EOS),strain rate effect,and damage.The calibrated parameters are verified through numerical tests that correspond to the experimental loading conditions.Consistency between numerical results and experimental data indicates the precision and reliability of the calibrated parameters.The methodology presented in this study is scientifically sound,straightforward,and essential for improving the TSID model.Furthermore,it has the potential to contribute to other rock constitutive models,particularly new user-defined models.展开更多
According to a high-temperature compression test of rare earth magnesium alloy(WE43),a strain-compensated constitutive model of the Arrhenius equation based on Zener-Hollomon parameters was established,and the rheolog...According to a high-temperature compression test of rare earth magnesium alloy(WE43),a strain-compensated constitutive model of the Arrhenius equation based on Zener-Hollomon parameters was established,and the rheological behaviors were predicted.The model exhibited relatively serious prediction distortion in the low-temperature and high-strain rate parameter interval,and its accuracy was still unsatisfactory even after modification by a correction operator considering the coupling of temperature and strain rate.The microstructure characterization and statistical analysis showed that a large number of twinning occurred in the parameter intervals with prediction deviation.The occurrence of twinning complicated the local internal stress distribution by drastically changing the crystal orientation and led to significant fluctuations in the macroscopic strain-stress and hardening curves relative to the rheological processes dominated by the dislocation and softening mechanisms,making the logarithm of the strain rate and stress deviate from the linear relationship.This twinning phenomenon was greatly influenced by the temperature and strain rate.Herein,the influence mechanism on twinning behavior was analyzed from the perspective of the interaction of dislocation and twinning.展开更多
In this paper, a filtering method is presented to estimate time-varying parameters of a missile dual control system with tail fins and reaction jets as control variables. In this method, the long-short-term memory(LST...In this paper, a filtering method is presented to estimate time-varying parameters of a missile dual control system with tail fins and reaction jets as control variables. In this method, the long-short-term memory(LSTM) neural network is nested into the extended Kalman filter(EKF) to modify the Kalman gain such that the filtering performance is improved in the presence of large model uncertainties. To avoid the unstable network output caused by the abrupt changes of system states,an adaptive correction factor is introduced to correct the network output online. In the process of training the network, a multi-gradient descent learning mode is proposed to better fit the internal state of the system, and a rolling training is used to implement an online prediction logic. Based on the Lyapunov second method, we discuss the stability of the system, the result shows that when the training error of neural network is sufficiently small, the system is asymptotically stable. With its application to the estimation of time-varying parameters of a missile dual control system, the LSTM-EKF shows better filtering performance than the EKF and adaptive EKF(AEKF) when there exist large uncertainties in the system model.展开更多
A robust parameter identification method based on Kiencke model was proposed to solve the problem of the parameter identification accuracy being affected by the rail environment change and noise interference for heavy...A robust parameter identification method based on Kiencke model was proposed to solve the problem of the parameter identification accuracy being affected by the rail environment change and noise interference for heavy-duty trains. Firstly, a Kiencke stick-creep identification model was constructed, and the parameter identification task was transformed into a quadratic programming problem. Secondly, an iterative algorithm was constructed to solve the problem, into which a time-varying forgetting factor was added to track the change of the rail environment, and to solve the uncertainty problem of the wheel-rail environment. The Granger causality test was adopted to detect the interference, and then the weights of the current data were redistributed to solve the problem of noise interference in parameter identification. Finally, simulations were carried out and the results showed that the proposed method could track the change of the track environment in time, reduce the noise interference in the identification process, and effectively identify the adhesion performance parameters.展开更多
The outbreak of COVID-19 in 2019 resulted in numerous infections and deaths. In order to better study the transmission of COVID-19, this article adopts an improved fractional-order SIR model. Firstly, the properties o...The outbreak of COVID-19 in 2019 resulted in numerous infections and deaths. In order to better study the transmission of COVID-19, this article adopts an improved fractional-order SIR model. Firstly, the properties of the model are studied, including the feasible domain and bounded solutions of the system. Secondly, the stability of the system is discussed, among other things. Then, the GMMP method is introduced to obtain numerical solutions for the COVID-19 system and combined with the improved MH-NMSS-PSO parameter estimation method to fit the real data of Delhi, India from April 1, 2020 to June 30, 2020. The results show that the fitting effect is quite ideal. Finally, long-term predictions were made on the number of infections. We accurately estimate that the peak number of infections in Delhi, India, can reach around 2.1 million. This paper also compares the fitting performance of the integer-order COVID-19 model and the fractional-order COVID-19 model using the real data from Delhi. The results indicate that the fractional-order model with different orders, as we proposed, performs the best.展开更多
Atmospheric models are physical equations based on the ideal gas law. Applied to the atmosphere, this law yields equations for water, vapor (gas), ice, air, humidity, dryness, fire, and heat, thus defining the model o...Atmospheric models are physical equations based on the ideal gas law. Applied to the atmosphere, this law yields equations for water, vapor (gas), ice, air, humidity, dryness, fire, and heat, thus defining the model of key atmospheric parameters. The distribution of these parameters across the entire planet Earth is the origin of the formation of the climatic cycle, which is a normal climatic variation. To do this, the Earth is divided into eight (8) parts according to the number of key parameters to be defined in a physical representation of the model. Following this distribution, numerical models calculate the constants for the formation of water, vapor, ice, dryness, thermal energy (fire), heat, air, and humidity. These models vary in complexity depending on the indirect trigonometric direction and simplicity in the sum of neighboring models. Note that the constants obtained from the equations yield 275.156˚K (2.006˚C) for water, 273.1596˚K (0.00963˚C) for vapor, 273.1633˚K (0.0133˚C) for ice, 0.00365 in/s for atmospheric dryness, 1.996 in<sup>2</sup>/s for humidity, 2.993 in<sup>2</sup>/s for air, 1 J for thermal energy of fire, and 0.9963 J for heat. In summary, this study aims to define the main parameters and natural phenomena contributing to the modification of planetary climate. .展开更多
BACKGROUND The severity of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD)and lipid metabolism are related to the occurrence of colorectal polyps.Liver-controlled attenuation parameters(liver-CAPs)have been established to pre...BACKGROUND The severity of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD)and lipid metabolism are related to the occurrence of colorectal polyps.Liver-controlled attenuation parameters(liver-CAPs)have been established to predict the prognosis of hepatic steatosis patients.AIM To explore the risk factors associated with colorectal polyps in patients with NAFLD by analyzing liver-CAPs and establishing a diagnostic model.METHODS Patients who were diagnosed with colorectal polyps in the Department of Gastroenterology of our hospital between June 2021 and April 2022 composed the case group,and those with no important abnormalities composed the control group.The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used to predict the diagnostic efficiency.Differences were considered statistically significant when P<0.05.RESULTS The median triglyceride(TG)and liver-CAP in the case group were significantly greater than those in the control group(mmol/L,1.74 vs 1.05;dB/m,282 vs 254,P<0.05).TG and liver-CAP were found to be independent risk factors for colorectal polyps,with ORs of 2.338(95%CI:1.154–4.733)and 1.019(95%CI:1.006–1.033),respectively(P<0.05).And there was no difference in the diagnostic efficacy between liver-CAP and TG combined with liver-CAP(TG+CAP)(P>0.05).When the liver-CAP was greater than 291 dB/m,colorectal polyps were more likely to occur.CONCLUSION The levels of TG and liver-CAP in patients with colorectal polyps are significantly greater than those patients without polyps.Liver-CAP alone can be used to diagnose NAFLD with colorectal polyps.展开更多
In time-variant reliability problems,there are a lot of uncertain variables from different sources.Therefore,it is important to consider these uncertainties in engineering.In addition,time-variant reliability problems...In time-variant reliability problems,there are a lot of uncertain variables from different sources.Therefore,it is important to consider these uncertainties in engineering.In addition,time-variant reliability problems typically involve a complexmultilevel nested optimization problem,which can result in an enormous amount of computation.To this end,this paper studies the time-variant reliability evaluation of structures with stochastic and bounded uncertainties using a mixed probability and convex set model.In this method,the stochastic process of a limit-state function with mixed uncertain parameters is first discretized and then converted into a timeindependent reliability problem.Further,to solve the double nested optimization problem in hybrid reliability calculation,an efficient iterative scheme is designed in standard uncertainty space to determine the most probable point(MPP).The limit state function is linearized at these points,and an innovative random variable is defined to solve the equivalent static reliability analysis model.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by two benchmark numerical examples and a practical engineering problem.展开更多
On-site and real-time non-destructive measurement of elastic constants for materials of a component in a in-service structure is a challenge due to structural complexities,such as ambiguous boundary,variable thickness...On-site and real-time non-destructive measurement of elastic constants for materials of a component in a in-service structure is a challenge due to structural complexities,such as ambiguous boundary,variable thickness,nonuniform material properties.This work develops for the first time a method that uses ultrasound echo groups and artificial neural network(ANN)for reliable on-site real-time identification of material parameters.The use of echo groups allows the use of lower frequencies,and hence more accommodative to structural complexity.To train the ANNs,a numerical model is established that is capable of computing the waveform of ultrasonic echo groups for any given set of material properties of a given structure.The waveform of an ultrasonic echo groups at an interest location on the surface the structure with material parameters varying in a predefined range are then computed using the numerical model.This results in a set of dataset for training the ANN model.Once the ANN is trained,the material parameters can be identified simultaneously using the actual measured echo waveform as input to the ANN.Intensive tests have been conducted both numerically and experimentally to evaluate the effectiveness and accuracy of the currently proposed method.The results show that the maximum identification error of numerical example is less than 2%,and the maximum identification error of experimental test is less than 7%.Compared with currently prevailing methods and equipment,the proposefy the density and thickness,in addition to the elastic constants.Moreover,the reliability and accuracy of inverse prediction is significantly improved.Thus,it has broad applications and enables real-time field measurements,which has not been fulfilled by any other available methods or equipment.展开更多
AIM:To develop a deep learning-based model for automatic retinal vascular segmentation,analyzing and comparing parameters under diverse glucose metabolic status(normal,prediabetes,diabetes)and to assess the potential ...AIM:To develop a deep learning-based model for automatic retinal vascular segmentation,analyzing and comparing parameters under diverse glucose metabolic status(normal,prediabetes,diabetes)and to assess the potential of artificial intelligence(AI)in image segmentation and retinal vascular parameters for predicting prediabetes and diabetes.METHODS:Retinal fundus photos from 200 normal individuals,200 prediabetic patients,and 200 diabetic patients(600 eyes in total)were used.The U-Net network served as the foundational architecture for retinal arteryvein segmentation.An automatic segmentation and evaluation system for retinal vascular parameters was trained,encompassing 26 parameters.RESULTS:Significant differences were found in retinal vascular parameters across normal,prediabetes,and diabetes groups,including artery diameter(P=0.008),fractal dimension(P=0.000),vein curvature(P=0.003),C-zone artery branching vessel count(P=0.049),C-zone vein branching vessel count(P=0.041),artery branching angle(P=0.005),vein branching angle(P=0.001),artery angle asymmetry degree(P=0.003),vessel length density(P=0.000),and vessel area density(P=0.000),totaling 10 parameters.CONCLUSION:The deep learning-based model facilitates retinal vascular parameter identification and quantification,revealing significant differences.These parameters exhibit potential as biomarkers for prediabetes and diabetes.展开更多
Accurate and efficient online parameter identification and state estimation are crucial for leveraging digital twin simulations to optimize the operation of near-carbon-free nuclear energy systems.In previous studies,...Accurate and efficient online parameter identification and state estimation are crucial for leveraging digital twin simulations to optimize the operation of near-carbon-free nuclear energy systems.In previous studies,we developed a reactor operation digital twin(RODT).However,non-differentiabilities and discontinuities arise when employing machine learning-based surrogate forward models,challenging traditional gradient-based inverse methods and their variants.This study investigated deterministic and metaheuristic algorithms and developed hybrid algorithms to address these issues.An efficient modular RODT software framework that incorporates these methods into its post-evaluation module is presented for comprehensive comparison.The methods were rigorously assessed based on convergence profiles,stability with respect to noise,and computational performance.The numerical results show that the hybrid KNNLHS algorithm excels in real-time online applications,balancing accuracy and efficiency with a prediction error rate of only 1%and processing times of less than 0.1 s.Contrastingly,algorithms such as FSA,DE,and ADE,although slightly slower(approximately 1 s),demonstrated higher accuracy with a 0.3%relative L_2 error,which advances RODT methodologies to harness machine learning and system modeling for improved reactor monitoring,systematic diagnosis of off-normal events,and lifetime management strategies.The developed modular software and novel optimization methods presented offer pathways to realize the full potential of RODT for transforming energy engineering practices.展开更多
This paper presents a novel artificial intelligence (AI) based approach to predict crucial meteorological parameters such as temperature,pressure,and wind speed,typically calculated from computationally intensive weat...This paper presents a novel artificial intelligence (AI) based approach to predict crucial meteorological parameters such as temperature,pressure,and wind speed,typically calculated from computationally intensive weather research and forecasting (WRF) model.Accurate meteorological data is indispensable for simulating the release of radioactive effluents,especially in dispersion modeling for nuclear emergency decision support systems.Simulation of meteorological conditions during nuclear emergencies using the conventional WRF model is very complex and time-consuming.Therefore,a new artificial neural network (ANN) based technique was proposed as a viable alternative for meteorological prediction.A multi-input multi-output neural network was trained using historical site-specific meteorological data to forecast the meteorological parameters.Comprehensive evaluation of this technique was conducted to test its performance in forecasting various parameters including atmospheric pressure,temperature,and wind speed components in both East-West and North-South directions.The performance of developed network was evaluated on an unknown dataset,and acquired results are within the acceptable range for all meteorological parameters.Results show that ANNs possess the capability to forecast meteorological parameters,such as temperature and pressure,at multiple spatial locations within a grid with high accuracy,utilizing input data from a single station.However,accuracy is slightly compromised when predicting wind speed components.Root mean square error (RMSE) was utilized to report the accuracy of predicted results,with values of 1.453℃for temperature,77 Pa for predicted pressure,1.058 m/s for the wind speed of U-component and 0.959 m/s for the wind speed of V-component.In conclusion,this approach offers a precise,efficient,and wellinformed method for administrative decision-making during nuclear emergencies.展开更多
To estimate the parameters of the mixed additive and multiplicative(MAM)random error model using the weighted least squares iterative algorithm that requires derivation of the complex weight array,we introduce a deriv...To estimate the parameters of the mixed additive and multiplicative(MAM)random error model using the weighted least squares iterative algorithm that requires derivation of the complex weight array,we introduce a derivative-free cat swarm optimization for parameter estimation.We embed the Powell method,which uses conjugate direction acceleration and does not need to derive the objective function,into the original cat swarm optimization to accelerate its convergence speed and search accuracy.We use the ordinary least squares,weighted least squares,original cat swarm optimization,particle swarm algorithm and improved cat swarm optimization to estimate the parameters of the straight-line fitting MAM model with lower nonlinearity and the DEM MAM model with higher nonlinearity,respectively.The experimental results show that the improved cat swarm optimization has faster convergence speed,higher search accuracy,and better stability than the original cat swarm optimization and the particle swarm algorithm.At the same time,the improved cat swarm optimization can obtain results consistent with the weighted least squares method based on the objective function only while avoiding multiple complex weight array derivations.The method in this paper provides a new idea for theoretical research on parameter estimation of MAM error models.展开更多
The eastern foothills of the Helan Mountains in China are a typical mountainous region of soil and gravel,where gravel could affect the water movement process in the soil.This study focused on the effects of different...The eastern foothills of the Helan Mountains in China are a typical mountainous region of soil and gravel,where gravel could affect the water movement process in the soil.This study focused on the effects of different gravel contents on the water absorption characteristics and hydraulic parameters of stony soil.The stony soil samples were collected from the eastern foothills of the Helan Mountains in April 2023 and used as the experimental materials to conduct a one-dimensional horizontal soil column absorption experiment.Six experimental groups with gravel contents of 0%,10%,20%,30%,40%,and 50%were established to determine the saturated hydraulic conductivity(K_(s)),saturated water content(θ_(s)),initial water content(θ_(i)),and retention water content(θ_(r)),and explore the changes in the wetting front depth and cumulative absorption volume during the absorption experiment.The Philip model was used to fit the soil absorption process and determine the soil water absorption rate.Then the length of the characteristic wetting front depth,shape coefficient,empirical parameter,inverse intake suction and soil water suction were derived from the van Genuchten model.Finally,the hydraulic parameters mentioned above were used to fit the soil water characteristic curves,unsaturated hydraulic conductivity(K_(θ))and specific water capacity(C(h)).The results showed that the wetting front depth and cumulative absorption volume of each treatment gradually decreased with increasing gravel content.Compared with control check treatment with gravel content of 0%,soil water absorption rates in the treatments with gravel contents of 10%,20%,30%,40%,and 50%decreased by 11.47%,17.97%,25.24%,29.83%,and 42.45%,respectively.As the gravel content increased,inverse intake suction gradually increased,and shape coefficient,K_(s),θ_(s),andθ_(r)gradually decreased.For the same soil water content,soil water suction and K_(θ)gradually decreased with increasing gravel content.At the same soil water suction,C(h)decreased with increasing gravel content,and the water use efficiency worsened.Overall,the water holding capacity,hydraulic conductivity,and water use efficiency of stony soil in the eastern foothills of the Helan Mountains decreased with increasing gravel content.This study could provide data support for improving soil water use efficiency in the eastern foothills of the Helan Mountains and other similar rocky mountainous areas.展开更多
Model parameters estimation is a pivotal issue for runoff modeling in ungauged catchments.The nonlinear relationship between model parameters and catchment descriptors is a major obstacle for parameter regionalization...Model parameters estimation is a pivotal issue for runoff modeling in ungauged catchments.The nonlinear relationship between model parameters and catchment descriptors is a major obstacle for parameter regionalization,which is the most widely used approach.Runoff modeling was studied in 38 catchments located in the Yellow–Huai–Hai River Basin(YHHRB).The values of the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient(NSE),coefficient of determination(R2),and percent bias(PBIAS)indicated the acceptable performance of the soil and water assessment tool(SWAT)model in the YHHRB.Nine descriptors belonging to the categories of climate,soil,vegetation,and topography were used to express the catchment characteristics related to the hydrological processes.The quantitative relationships between the parameters of the SWAT model and the catchment descriptors were analyzed by six regression-based models,including linear regression(LR)equations,support vector regression(SVR),random forest(RF),k-nearest neighbor(kNN),decision tree(DT),and radial basis function(RBF).Each of the 38 catchments was assumed to be an ungauged catchment in turn.Then,the parameters in each target catchment were estimated by the constructed regression models based on the remaining 37 donor catchments.Furthermore,the similaritybased regionalization scheme was used for comparison with the regression-based approach.The results indicated that the runoff with the highest accuracy was modeled by the SVR-based scheme in ungauged catchments.Compared with the traditional LR-based approach,the accuracy of the runoff modeling in ungauged catchments was improved by the machine learning algorithms because of the outstanding capability to deal with nonlinear relationships.The performances of different approaches were similar in humid regions,while the advantages of the machine learning techniques were more evident in arid regions.When the study area contained nested catchments,the best result was calculated with the similarity-based parameter regionalization scheme because of the high catchment density and short spatial distance.The new findings could improve flood forecasting and water resources planning in regions that lack observed data.展开更多
Time-varying mesh stiffness(TVMS)is a vital internal excitation source for the spiral bevel gear(SBG)transmission system.Spalling defect often causes decrease in gear mesh stiffness and changes the dynamic characteris...Time-varying mesh stiffness(TVMS)is a vital internal excitation source for the spiral bevel gear(SBG)transmission system.Spalling defect often causes decrease in gear mesh stiffness and changes the dynamic characteristics of the gear system,which further increases noise and vibration.This paper aims to calculate the TVMS and establish dynamic model of SBG with spalling defect.In this study,a novel analytical model based on slice method is proposed to calculate the TVMS of SBG considering spalling defect.Subsequently,the influence of spalling defect on the TVMS is studied through a numerical simulation,and the proposed analytical model is verified by a finite element model.Besides,an 8-degrees-of-freedom dynamic model is established for SBG transmission system.Incorporating the spalling defect into TVMS,the dynamic responses of spalled SBG are analyzed.The numerical results indicate that spalling defect would cause periodic impact in time domain.Finally,an experiment is designed to verify the proposed dynamic model.The experimental results show that the spalling defect makes the response characterized by periodic impact with the rotating frequency of spalled pinion.展开更多
Typically,a computer has infectivity as soon as it is infected.It is a reality that no antivirus programming can identify and eliminate all kinds of viruses,suggesting that infections would persevere on the Internet.T...Typically,a computer has infectivity as soon as it is infected.It is a reality that no antivirus programming can identify and eliminate all kinds of viruses,suggesting that infections would persevere on the Internet.To understand the dynamics of the virus propagation in a better way,a computer virus spread model with fuzzy parameters is presented in this work.It is assumed that all infected computers do not have the same contribution to the virus transmission process and each computer has a different degree of infectivity,which depends on the quantity of virus.Considering this,the parametersβandγbeing functions of the computer virus load,are considered fuzzy numbers.Using fuzzy theory helps us understand the spread of computer viruses more realistically as these parameters have fixed values in classical models.The essential features of the model,like reproduction number and equilibrium analysis,are discussed in fuzzy senses.Moreover,with fuzziness,two numerical methods,the forward Euler technique,and a nonstandard finite difference(NSFD)scheme,respectively,are developed and analyzed.In the evidence of the numerical simulations,the proposed NSFD method preserves the main features of the dynamic system.It can be considered a reliable tool to predict such types of solutions.展开更多
A challenge for the development of Land Surface Models(LSMs) is improving transpiration of water exchange and photosynthesis of carbon exchange between terrestrial plants and the atmosphere, both of which are governed...A challenge for the development of Land Surface Models(LSMs) is improving transpiration of water exchange and photosynthesis of carbon exchange between terrestrial plants and the atmosphere, both of which are governed by stoma in leaves. In the photosynthesis module of these LSMs, variations of parameters arising from diversity in plant functional types(PFTs) and climate remain unclear. Identifying sensitive parameters among all photosynthetic parameters before parameter estimation can not only reduce operation cost, but also improve the usability of photosynthesis models worldwide. Here, we analyzed 13 parameters of a biochemically-based photosynthesis model(FvCB), implemented in many LSMs, using two sensitivity analysis(SA) methods(i.e., the Sobol’ method and the Morris method) for setting up the parameter ensemble. Three different model performance metrics, i.e.,Root Mean Squared Error(RMSE), Nash Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE), and Standard Deviation(STDEV) were introduced for model assessment and sensitive parameters identification. The results showed that among all photosynthetic parameters only a small portion of parameters were sensitive, and the sensitive parameters were different across plant functional types: maximum rate of Rubisco activity(Vcmax25), maximum electron transport rate(Jmax25), triose phosphate use rate(TPU) and dark respiration in light(Rd) were sensitive in broad leafevergreen trees(BET), broad leaf-deciduous trees(BDT) and needle leaf-evergreen trees(NET), while only Vcmax25and TPU are sensitive in short vegetation(SV), dwarf trees and shrubs(DTS), and agriculture and grassland(AG). The two sensitivity analysis methods suggested a strong SA coherence;in contrast, different model performance metrics led to different SA results. This misfit suggests that more accurate values of sensitive parameters, specifically, species specific and seasonal variable parameters, are required to improve the performance of the FvCB model.展开更多
We discuss formulas and techniques for finding maximum-likelihood estimators of parameters of autoregressive (with particular emphasis on Markov and Yule) models, computing their asymptotic variance-covariance matrix ...We discuss formulas and techniques for finding maximum-likelihood estimators of parameters of autoregressive (with particular emphasis on Markov and Yule) models, computing their asymptotic variance-covariance matrix and displaying the resulting confidence regions;Monte Carlo simulation is then used to establish the accuracy of the corresponding level of confidence. The results indicate that a direct application of the Central Limit Theorem yields errors too large to be acceptable;instead, we recommend using a technique based directly on the natural logarithm of the likelihood function, verifying its substantially higher accuracy. Our study is then extended to the case of estimating only a subset of a model’s parameters, when the remaining ones (called nuisance) are of no interest to us.展开更多
基金Supported by Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Program (Grant No.21511101701)National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No.2021YFC0122704)。
文摘A dual-arm nursing robot can gently lift patients and transfer them between a bed and a wheelchair.With its lightweight design,high load-bearing capacity,and smooth surface,the coupled-drive joint is particularly well suited for these robots.However,the coupled nature of the joint disrupts the direct linear relationship between the input and output torques,posing challenges for dynamic modeling and practical applications.This study investigated the transmission mechanism of this joint and employed the Lagrangian method to construct a dynamic model of its internal dynamics.Building on this foundation,the Newton-Euler method was used to develop a dynamic model for the entire robotic arm.A continuously differentiable friction model was incorporated to reduce the vibrations caused by speed transitions to zero.An experimental method was designed to compensate for gravity,inertia,and modeling errors to identify the parameters of the friction model.This method establishes a mapping relationship between the friction force and motor current.In addition,a Fourier series-based excitation trajectory was developed to facilitate the identification of the dynamic model parameters of the robotic arm.Trajectory tracking experiments were conducted during the experimental validation phase,demonstrating the high accuracy of the dynamic model and the parameter identification method for the robotic arm.This study presents a dynamic modeling and parameter identification method for coupled-drive joint robotic arms,thereby establishing a foundation for motion control in humanoid nursing robots.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.12272247)National Key Project(Grant No.GJXM92579)Major Research and Development Project of Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd.in the Non-Steel Field(Grant No.2021-5).
文摘The tensile-shear interactive damage(TSID)model is a novel and powerful constitutive model for rock-like materials.This study proposes a methodology to calibrate the TSID model parameters to simulate sandstone.The basic parameters of sandstone are determined through a series of static and dynamic tests,including uniaxial compression,Brazilian disc,triaxial compression under varying confining pressures,hydrostatic compression,and dynamic compression and tensile tests with a split Hopkinson pressure bar.Based on the sandstone test results from this study and previous research,a step-by-step procedure for parameter calibration is outlined,which accounts for the categories of the strength surface,equation of state(EOS),strain rate effect,and damage.The calibrated parameters are verified through numerical tests that correspond to the experimental loading conditions.Consistency between numerical results and experimental data indicates the precision and reliability of the calibrated parameters.The methodology presented in this study is scientifically sound,straightforward,and essential for improving the TSID model.Furthermore,it has the potential to contribute to other rock constitutive models,particularly new user-defined models.
基金support of the Key Research and Development Program of Shandong Province of China(grant no.2021ZLGX01)Shandong Provincial Key Research and Development Program(Major Scientific and Technological Innovation Project),China(grant no.2021CXGC010206).
文摘According to a high-temperature compression test of rare earth magnesium alloy(WE43),a strain-compensated constitutive model of the Arrhenius equation based on Zener-Hollomon parameters was established,and the rheological behaviors were predicted.The model exhibited relatively serious prediction distortion in the low-temperature and high-strain rate parameter interval,and its accuracy was still unsatisfactory even after modification by a correction operator considering the coupling of temperature and strain rate.The microstructure characterization and statistical analysis showed that a large number of twinning occurred in the parameter intervals with prediction deviation.The occurrence of twinning complicated the local internal stress distribution by drastically changing the crystal orientation and led to significant fluctuations in the macroscopic strain-stress and hardening curves relative to the rheological processes dominated by the dislocation and softening mechanisms,making the logarithm of the strain rate and stress deviate from the linear relationship.This twinning phenomenon was greatly influenced by the temperature and strain rate.Herein,the influence mechanism on twinning behavior was analyzed from the perspective of the interaction of dislocation and twinning.
文摘In this paper, a filtering method is presented to estimate time-varying parameters of a missile dual control system with tail fins and reaction jets as control variables. In this method, the long-short-term memory(LSTM) neural network is nested into the extended Kalman filter(EKF) to modify the Kalman gain such that the filtering performance is improved in the presence of large model uncertainties. To avoid the unstable network output caused by the abrupt changes of system states,an adaptive correction factor is introduced to correct the network output online. In the process of training the network, a multi-gradient descent learning mode is proposed to better fit the internal state of the system, and a rolling training is used to implement an online prediction logic. Based on the Lyapunov second method, we discuss the stability of the system, the result shows that when the training error of neural network is sufficiently small, the system is asymptotically stable. With its application to the estimation of time-varying parameters of a missile dual control system, the LSTM-EKF shows better filtering performance than the EKF and adaptive EKF(AEKF) when there exist large uncertainties in the system model.
文摘A robust parameter identification method based on Kiencke model was proposed to solve the problem of the parameter identification accuracy being affected by the rail environment change and noise interference for heavy-duty trains. Firstly, a Kiencke stick-creep identification model was constructed, and the parameter identification task was transformed into a quadratic programming problem. Secondly, an iterative algorithm was constructed to solve the problem, into which a time-varying forgetting factor was added to track the change of the rail environment, and to solve the uncertainty problem of the wheel-rail environment. The Granger causality test was adopted to detect the interference, and then the weights of the current data were redistributed to solve the problem of noise interference in parameter identification. Finally, simulations were carried out and the results showed that the proposed method could track the change of the track environment in time, reduce the noise interference in the identification process, and effectively identify the adhesion performance parameters.
文摘The outbreak of COVID-19 in 2019 resulted in numerous infections and deaths. In order to better study the transmission of COVID-19, this article adopts an improved fractional-order SIR model. Firstly, the properties of the model are studied, including the feasible domain and bounded solutions of the system. Secondly, the stability of the system is discussed, among other things. Then, the GMMP method is introduced to obtain numerical solutions for the COVID-19 system and combined with the improved MH-NMSS-PSO parameter estimation method to fit the real data of Delhi, India from April 1, 2020 to June 30, 2020. The results show that the fitting effect is quite ideal. Finally, long-term predictions were made on the number of infections. We accurately estimate that the peak number of infections in Delhi, India, can reach around 2.1 million. This paper also compares the fitting performance of the integer-order COVID-19 model and the fractional-order COVID-19 model using the real data from Delhi. The results indicate that the fractional-order model with different orders, as we proposed, performs the best.
文摘Atmospheric models are physical equations based on the ideal gas law. Applied to the atmosphere, this law yields equations for water, vapor (gas), ice, air, humidity, dryness, fire, and heat, thus defining the model of key atmospheric parameters. The distribution of these parameters across the entire planet Earth is the origin of the formation of the climatic cycle, which is a normal climatic variation. To do this, the Earth is divided into eight (8) parts according to the number of key parameters to be defined in a physical representation of the model. Following this distribution, numerical models calculate the constants for the formation of water, vapor, ice, dryness, thermal energy (fire), heat, air, and humidity. These models vary in complexity depending on the indirect trigonometric direction and simplicity in the sum of neighboring models. Note that the constants obtained from the equations yield 275.156˚K (2.006˚C) for water, 273.1596˚K (0.00963˚C) for vapor, 273.1633˚K (0.0133˚C) for ice, 0.00365 in/s for atmospheric dryness, 1.996 in<sup>2</sup>/s for humidity, 2.993 in<sup>2</sup>/s for air, 1 J for thermal energy of fire, and 0.9963 J for heat. In summary, this study aims to define the main parameters and natural phenomena contributing to the modification of planetary climate. .
基金Supported by the Special Research Project of the Capital’s Health Development,No.2024-3-7037and the Beijing Clinical Key Specialty Project.
文摘BACKGROUND The severity of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD)and lipid metabolism are related to the occurrence of colorectal polyps.Liver-controlled attenuation parameters(liver-CAPs)have been established to predict the prognosis of hepatic steatosis patients.AIM To explore the risk factors associated with colorectal polyps in patients with NAFLD by analyzing liver-CAPs and establishing a diagnostic model.METHODS Patients who were diagnosed with colorectal polyps in the Department of Gastroenterology of our hospital between June 2021 and April 2022 composed the case group,and those with no important abnormalities composed the control group.The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used to predict the diagnostic efficiency.Differences were considered statistically significant when P<0.05.RESULTS The median triglyceride(TG)and liver-CAP in the case group were significantly greater than those in the control group(mmol/L,1.74 vs 1.05;dB/m,282 vs 254,P<0.05).TG and liver-CAP were found to be independent risk factors for colorectal polyps,with ORs of 2.338(95%CI:1.154–4.733)and 1.019(95%CI:1.006–1.033),respectively(P<0.05).And there was no difference in the diagnostic efficacy between liver-CAP and TG combined with liver-CAP(TG+CAP)(P>0.05).When the liver-CAP was greater than 291 dB/m,colorectal polyps were more likely to occur.CONCLUSION The levels of TG and liver-CAP in patients with colorectal polyps are significantly greater than those patients without polyps.Liver-CAP alone can be used to diagnose NAFLD with colorectal polyps.
基金partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52375238)Science and Technology Program of Guangzhou(202201020213,202201020193,202201010399)GZHU-HKUST Joint Research Fund(YH202109).
文摘In time-variant reliability problems,there are a lot of uncertain variables from different sources.Therefore,it is important to consider these uncertainties in engineering.In addition,time-variant reliability problems typically involve a complexmultilevel nested optimization problem,which can result in an enormous amount of computation.To this end,this paper studies the time-variant reliability evaluation of structures with stochastic and bounded uncertainties using a mixed probability and convex set model.In this method,the stochastic process of a limit-state function with mixed uncertain parameters is first discretized and then converted into a timeindependent reliability problem.Further,to solve the double nested optimization problem in hybrid reliability calculation,an efficient iterative scheme is designed in standard uncertainty space to determine the most probable point(MPP).The limit state function is linearized at these points,and an innovative random variable is defined to solve the equivalent static reliability analysis model.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by two benchmark numerical examples and a practical engineering problem.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51805141)Funds for Creative Research Groups of Hebei Province of China(Grant No.E2020202142)+2 种基金Tianjin Municipal Science and Technology Plan Project of China(Grant No.19ZXZNGX00100)Key R&D Program of Hebei Province of China(Grant No.19227208D)National Key Research and development Program of China(Grant No.2020YFB2009400).
文摘On-site and real-time non-destructive measurement of elastic constants for materials of a component in a in-service structure is a challenge due to structural complexities,such as ambiguous boundary,variable thickness,nonuniform material properties.This work develops for the first time a method that uses ultrasound echo groups and artificial neural network(ANN)for reliable on-site real-time identification of material parameters.The use of echo groups allows the use of lower frequencies,and hence more accommodative to structural complexity.To train the ANNs,a numerical model is established that is capable of computing the waveform of ultrasonic echo groups for any given set of material properties of a given structure.The waveform of an ultrasonic echo groups at an interest location on the surface the structure with material parameters varying in a predefined range are then computed using the numerical model.This results in a set of dataset for training the ANN model.Once the ANN is trained,the material parameters can be identified simultaneously using the actual measured echo waveform as input to the ANN.Intensive tests have been conducted both numerically and experimentally to evaluate the effectiveness and accuracy of the currently proposed method.The results show that the maximum identification error of numerical example is less than 2%,and the maximum identification error of experimental test is less than 7%.Compared with currently prevailing methods and equipment,the proposefy the density and thickness,in addition to the elastic constants.Moreover,the reliability and accuracy of inverse prediction is significantly improved.Thus,it has broad applications and enables real-time field measurements,which has not been fulfilled by any other available methods or equipment.
基金Supported by Shenzhen Science and Technology Program(No.JCYJ20220530153604010).
文摘AIM:To develop a deep learning-based model for automatic retinal vascular segmentation,analyzing and comparing parameters under diverse glucose metabolic status(normal,prediabetes,diabetes)and to assess the potential of artificial intelligence(AI)in image segmentation and retinal vascular parameters for predicting prediabetes and diabetes.METHODS:Retinal fundus photos from 200 normal individuals,200 prediabetic patients,and 200 diabetic patients(600 eyes in total)were used.The U-Net network served as the foundational architecture for retinal arteryvein segmentation.An automatic segmentation and evaluation system for retinal vascular parameters was trained,encompassing 26 parameters.RESULTS:Significant differences were found in retinal vascular parameters across normal,prediabetes,and diabetes groups,including artery diameter(P=0.008),fractal dimension(P=0.000),vein curvature(P=0.003),C-zone artery branching vessel count(P=0.049),C-zone vein branching vessel count(P=0.041),artery branching angle(P=0.005),vein branching angle(P=0.001),artery angle asymmetry degree(P=0.003),vessel length density(P=0.000),and vessel area density(P=0.000),totaling 10 parameters.CONCLUSION:The deep learning-based model facilitates retinal vascular parameter identification and quantification,revealing significant differences.These parameters exhibit potential as biomarkers for prediabetes and diabetes.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai(No.23ZR1429300)Innovation Funds of CNNC(Lingchuang Fund,Contract No.CNNC-LCKY-202234)the Project of the Nuclear Power Technology Innovation Center of Science Technology and Industry(No.HDLCXZX-2023-HD-039-02)。
文摘Accurate and efficient online parameter identification and state estimation are crucial for leveraging digital twin simulations to optimize the operation of near-carbon-free nuclear energy systems.In previous studies,we developed a reactor operation digital twin(RODT).However,non-differentiabilities and discontinuities arise when employing machine learning-based surrogate forward models,challenging traditional gradient-based inverse methods and their variants.This study investigated deterministic and metaheuristic algorithms and developed hybrid algorithms to address these issues.An efficient modular RODT software framework that incorporates these methods into its post-evaluation module is presented for comprehensive comparison.The methods were rigorously assessed based on convergence profiles,stability with respect to noise,and computational performance.The numerical results show that the hybrid KNNLHS algorithm excels in real-time online applications,balancing accuracy and efficiency with a prediction error rate of only 1%and processing times of less than 0.1 s.Contrastingly,algorithms such as FSA,DE,and ADE,although slightly slower(approximately 1 s),demonstrated higher accuracy with a 0.3%relative L_2 error,which advances RODT methodologies to harness machine learning and system modeling for improved reactor monitoring,systematic diagnosis of off-normal events,and lifetime management strategies.The developed modular software and novel optimization methods presented offer pathways to realize the full potential of RODT for transforming energy engineering practices.
文摘This paper presents a novel artificial intelligence (AI) based approach to predict crucial meteorological parameters such as temperature,pressure,and wind speed,typically calculated from computationally intensive weather research and forecasting (WRF) model.Accurate meteorological data is indispensable for simulating the release of radioactive effluents,especially in dispersion modeling for nuclear emergency decision support systems.Simulation of meteorological conditions during nuclear emergencies using the conventional WRF model is very complex and time-consuming.Therefore,a new artificial neural network (ANN) based technique was proposed as a viable alternative for meteorological prediction.A multi-input multi-output neural network was trained using historical site-specific meteorological data to forecast the meteorological parameters.Comprehensive evaluation of this technique was conducted to test its performance in forecasting various parameters including atmospheric pressure,temperature,and wind speed components in both East-West and North-South directions.The performance of developed network was evaluated on an unknown dataset,and acquired results are within the acceptable range for all meteorological parameters.Results show that ANNs possess the capability to forecast meteorological parameters,such as temperature and pressure,at multiple spatial locations within a grid with high accuracy,utilizing input data from a single station.However,accuracy is slightly compromised when predicting wind speed components.Root mean square error (RMSE) was utilized to report the accuracy of predicted results,with values of 1.453℃for temperature,77 Pa for predicted pressure,1.058 m/s for the wind speed of U-component and 0.959 m/s for the wind speed of V-component.In conclusion,this approach offers a precise,efficient,and wellinformed method for administrative decision-making during nuclear emergencies.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42174011 and No.41874001).
文摘To estimate the parameters of the mixed additive and multiplicative(MAM)random error model using the weighted least squares iterative algorithm that requires derivation of the complex weight array,we introduce a derivative-free cat swarm optimization for parameter estimation.We embed the Powell method,which uses conjugate direction acceleration and does not need to derive the objective function,into the original cat swarm optimization to accelerate its convergence speed and search accuracy.We use the ordinary least squares,weighted least squares,original cat swarm optimization,particle swarm algorithm and improved cat swarm optimization to estimate the parameters of the straight-line fitting MAM model with lower nonlinearity and the DEM MAM model with higher nonlinearity,respectively.The experimental results show that the improved cat swarm optimization has faster convergence speed,higher search accuracy,and better stability than the original cat swarm optimization and the particle swarm algorithm.At the same time,the improved cat swarm optimization can obtain results consistent with the weighted least squares method based on the objective function only while avoiding multiple complex weight array derivations.The method in this paper provides a new idea for theoretical research on parameter estimation of MAM error models.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(32360321)the Natural Science Foundation of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,China(2023AAC03046,2023AAC02018)the Ningxia Key Research and Development Project(2021BEG02011).
文摘The eastern foothills of the Helan Mountains in China are a typical mountainous region of soil and gravel,where gravel could affect the water movement process in the soil.This study focused on the effects of different gravel contents on the water absorption characteristics and hydraulic parameters of stony soil.The stony soil samples were collected from the eastern foothills of the Helan Mountains in April 2023 and used as the experimental materials to conduct a one-dimensional horizontal soil column absorption experiment.Six experimental groups with gravel contents of 0%,10%,20%,30%,40%,and 50%were established to determine the saturated hydraulic conductivity(K_(s)),saturated water content(θ_(s)),initial water content(θ_(i)),and retention water content(θ_(r)),and explore the changes in the wetting front depth and cumulative absorption volume during the absorption experiment.The Philip model was used to fit the soil absorption process and determine the soil water absorption rate.Then the length of the characteristic wetting front depth,shape coefficient,empirical parameter,inverse intake suction and soil water suction were derived from the van Genuchten model.Finally,the hydraulic parameters mentioned above were used to fit the soil water characteristic curves,unsaturated hydraulic conductivity(K_(θ))and specific water capacity(C(h)).The results showed that the wetting front depth and cumulative absorption volume of each treatment gradually decreased with increasing gravel content.Compared with control check treatment with gravel content of 0%,soil water absorption rates in the treatments with gravel contents of 10%,20%,30%,40%,and 50%decreased by 11.47%,17.97%,25.24%,29.83%,and 42.45%,respectively.As the gravel content increased,inverse intake suction gradually increased,and shape coefficient,K_(s),θ_(s),andθ_(r)gradually decreased.For the same soil water content,soil water suction and K_(θ)gradually decreased with increasing gravel content.At the same soil water suction,C(h)decreased with increasing gravel content,and the water use efficiency worsened.Overall,the water holding capacity,hydraulic conductivity,and water use efficiency of stony soil in the eastern foothills of the Helan Mountains decreased with increasing gravel content.This study could provide data support for improving soil water use efficiency in the eastern foothills of the Helan Mountains and other similar rocky mountainous areas.
基金funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2017YFA0605002,2017YFA0605004,and 2016YFA0601501)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41961124007,51779145,and 41830863)“Six top talents”in Jiangsu Province(RJFW-031)。
文摘Model parameters estimation is a pivotal issue for runoff modeling in ungauged catchments.The nonlinear relationship between model parameters and catchment descriptors is a major obstacle for parameter regionalization,which is the most widely used approach.Runoff modeling was studied in 38 catchments located in the Yellow–Huai–Hai River Basin(YHHRB).The values of the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient(NSE),coefficient of determination(R2),and percent bias(PBIAS)indicated the acceptable performance of the soil and water assessment tool(SWAT)model in the YHHRB.Nine descriptors belonging to the categories of climate,soil,vegetation,and topography were used to express the catchment characteristics related to the hydrological processes.The quantitative relationships between the parameters of the SWAT model and the catchment descriptors were analyzed by six regression-based models,including linear regression(LR)equations,support vector regression(SVR),random forest(RF),k-nearest neighbor(kNN),decision tree(DT),and radial basis function(RBF).Each of the 38 catchments was assumed to be an ungauged catchment in turn.Then,the parameters in each target catchment were estimated by the constructed regression models based on the remaining 37 donor catchments.Furthermore,the similaritybased regionalization scheme was used for comparison with the regression-based approach.The results indicated that the runoff with the highest accuracy was modeled by the SVR-based scheme in ungauged catchments.Compared with the traditional LR-based approach,the accuracy of the runoff modeling in ungauged catchments was improved by the machine learning algorithms because of the outstanding capability to deal with nonlinear relationships.The performances of different approaches were similar in humid regions,while the advantages of the machine learning techniques were more evident in arid regions.When the study area contained nested catchments,the best result was calculated with the similarity-based parameter regionalization scheme because of the high catchment density and short spatial distance.The new findings could improve flood forecasting and water resources planning in regions that lack observed data.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(grant no.52075414).
文摘Time-varying mesh stiffness(TVMS)is a vital internal excitation source for the spiral bevel gear(SBG)transmission system.Spalling defect often causes decrease in gear mesh stiffness and changes the dynamic characteristics of the gear system,which further increases noise and vibration.This paper aims to calculate the TVMS and establish dynamic model of SBG with spalling defect.In this study,a novel analytical model based on slice method is proposed to calculate the TVMS of SBG considering spalling defect.Subsequently,the influence of spalling defect on the TVMS is studied through a numerical simulation,and the proposed analytical model is verified by a finite element model.Besides,an 8-degrees-of-freedom dynamic model is established for SBG transmission system.Incorporating the spalling defect into TVMS,the dynamic responses of spalled SBG are analyzed.The numerical results indicate that spalling defect would cause periodic impact in time domain.Finally,an experiment is designed to verify the proposed dynamic model.The experimental results show that the spalling defect makes the response characterized by periodic impact with the rotating frequency of spalled pinion.
文摘Typically,a computer has infectivity as soon as it is infected.It is a reality that no antivirus programming can identify and eliminate all kinds of viruses,suggesting that infections would persevere on the Internet.To understand the dynamics of the virus propagation in a better way,a computer virus spread model with fuzzy parameters is presented in this work.It is assumed that all infected computers do not have the same contribution to the virus transmission process and each computer has a different degree of infectivity,which depends on the quantity of virus.Considering this,the parametersβandγbeing functions of the computer virus load,are considered fuzzy numbers.Using fuzzy theory helps us understand the spread of computer viruses more realistically as these parameters have fixed values in classical models.The essential features of the model,like reproduction number and equilibrium analysis,are discussed in fuzzy senses.Moreover,with fuzziness,two numerical methods,the forward Euler technique,and a nonstandard finite difference(NSFD)scheme,respectively,are developed and analyzed.In the evidence of the numerical simulations,the proposed NSFD method preserves the main features of the dynamic system.It can be considered a reliable tool to predict such types of solutions.
基金supported by the CAS"Light of West China"Program (No.[2020]82)Key technology projects of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (Grant No.2020GG0306)+1 种基金Science and Technology Plan Projects of Alxa League (Grant No.AMY2020-18)Natural Science Foundation of Gansu Province (No.21JR7RA038).
文摘A challenge for the development of Land Surface Models(LSMs) is improving transpiration of water exchange and photosynthesis of carbon exchange between terrestrial plants and the atmosphere, both of which are governed by stoma in leaves. In the photosynthesis module of these LSMs, variations of parameters arising from diversity in plant functional types(PFTs) and climate remain unclear. Identifying sensitive parameters among all photosynthetic parameters before parameter estimation can not only reduce operation cost, but also improve the usability of photosynthesis models worldwide. Here, we analyzed 13 parameters of a biochemically-based photosynthesis model(FvCB), implemented in many LSMs, using two sensitivity analysis(SA) methods(i.e., the Sobol’ method and the Morris method) for setting up the parameter ensemble. Three different model performance metrics, i.e.,Root Mean Squared Error(RMSE), Nash Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE), and Standard Deviation(STDEV) were introduced for model assessment and sensitive parameters identification. The results showed that among all photosynthetic parameters only a small portion of parameters were sensitive, and the sensitive parameters were different across plant functional types: maximum rate of Rubisco activity(Vcmax25), maximum electron transport rate(Jmax25), triose phosphate use rate(TPU) and dark respiration in light(Rd) were sensitive in broad leafevergreen trees(BET), broad leaf-deciduous trees(BDT) and needle leaf-evergreen trees(NET), while only Vcmax25and TPU are sensitive in short vegetation(SV), dwarf trees and shrubs(DTS), and agriculture and grassland(AG). The two sensitivity analysis methods suggested a strong SA coherence;in contrast, different model performance metrics led to different SA results. This misfit suggests that more accurate values of sensitive parameters, specifically, species specific and seasonal variable parameters, are required to improve the performance of the FvCB model.
文摘We discuss formulas and techniques for finding maximum-likelihood estimators of parameters of autoregressive (with particular emphasis on Markov and Yule) models, computing their asymptotic variance-covariance matrix and displaying the resulting confidence regions;Monte Carlo simulation is then used to establish the accuracy of the corresponding level of confidence. The results indicate that a direct application of the Central Limit Theorem yields errors too large to be acceptable;instead, we recommend using a technique based directly on the natural logarithm of the likelihood function, verifying its substantially higher accuracy. Our study is then extended to the case of estimating only a subset of a model’s parameters, when the remaining ones (called nuisance) are of no interest to us.
