Errors inevitably exist in numerical weather prediction （NWP） due to imperfect numeric and physical parameterizations. To eliminate these errors, by considering NWP as an inverse problem, an unknown term in the pred...Errors inevitably exist in numerical weather prediction （NWP） due to imperfect numeric and physical parameterizations. To eliminate these errors, by considering NWP as an inverse problem, an unknown term in the prediction equations can be estimated inversely by using the past data, which are presumed to represent the imperfection of the NWP model （model error, denoted as ME）. In this first paper of a two-part series, an iteration method for obtaining the MEs in past intervals is presented, and the results from testing its convergence in idealized experiments are reported. Moreover, two batches of iteration tests were applied in the global forecast system of the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System （GRAPES-GFS） for July-August 2009 and January-February 2010. The datasets associated with the initial conditions and sea surface temperature （SST） were both based on NCEP （National Centers for Environmental Prediction） FNL （final） data. The results showed that 6th h forecast errors were reduced to 10% of their original value after a 20-step iteration. Then, off-line forecast error corrections were estimated linearly based on the 2-month mean MEs and compared with forecast errors. The estimated error corrections agreed well with the forecast errors, but the linear growth rate of the estimation was steeper than the forecast error. The advantage of this iteration method is that the MEs can provide the foundation for online correction. A larger proportion of the forecast errors can be expected to be canceled out by properly introducing the model error correction into GRAPES-GFS.展开更多
By using error correction model, I conduct co-integration analysis on the research of the relationship between the per capita practical consumption and per capita practical disposable income of urban residents in Huna...By using error correction model, I conduct co-integration analysis on the research of the relationship between the per capita practical consumption and per capita practical disposable income of urban residents in Hunan Province from 1978 to 2009. The results show that there is a co-integration relationship between the per capita practical consumption and the practical per capita disposable income of urban residents, and based on these, the corresponding error correction model is established. Finally, corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward as follows: broaden the income channel of urban residents; create goods consuming environment; perfect socialist security system.展开更多
An online systematic error correction is presented and examined as a technique to improve the accuracy of real-time numerical weather prediction, based on the dataset of model errors （MEs） in past intervals. Given t...An online systematic error correction is presented and examined as a technique to improve the accuracy of real-time numerical weather prediction, based on the dataset of model errors （MEs） in past intervals. Given the analyses, the ME in each interval （6 h） between two analyses can be iteratively obtained by introducing an unknown tendency term into the prediction equation, shown in Part I of this two-paper series. In this part, after analyzing the 5-year （2001-2005） GRAPES- GFS （Global Forecast System of the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System） error patterns and evolution, a systematic model error correction is given based on the least-squares approach by firstly using the past MEs. To test the correction, we applied the approach in GRAPES-GFS for July 2009 and January 2010. The datasets associated with the initial condition and SST used in this study were based on NCEP （National Centers for Environmental Prediction） FNL （final） data. The results indicated that the Northern Hemispheric systematically underestimated equator-to-pole geopotential gradient and westerly wind of GRAPES-GFS were largely enhanced, and the biases of temperature and wind in the tropics were strongly reduced. Therefore, the correction results in a more skillful forecast with lower mean bias and root-mean-square error and higher anomaly correlation coefficient.展开更多
Euler angle error model, rotation vector error model （RVE） and quaternion error model （QE） were qualitatively and quantitatively compared and an in-flight alignment filter algorithm was designed. This algorithm us...Euler angle error model, rotation vector error model （RVE） and quaternion error model （QE） were qualitatively and quantitatively compared and an in-flight alignment filter algorithm was designed. This algorithm used extended Kalman filter （EKF） based on RVE and QE separately avoi- ding the accuracy problem of the Euler angle model and used Rauch-Tung-Striebel（RTS） smoothing method to refine the accuracy recuperating the coning error for simplified RVE. Simulation results show that RVE and QE are more adapt for nonlinear filter estimation than the Euler angle model. The filter algorithm designed has more advantages in convergence speed, accuracy and stability comparing with the algorithm based on the three models separately.展开更多
In this paper, we conduct research on the large precision instrument error correction model under the perspectives of stability androbustness. It is one of the effective methods to improve the instruments accuracy usi...In this paper, we conduct research on the large precision instrument error correction model under the perspectives of stability androbustness. It is one of the effective methods to improve the instruments accuracy using error correction technology, but at present, a lot of errorcorrection is limited to the system error modifi cation, only a small number of the instruments to an error in the dynamic error correction timely,device on the instrument precision sensors, apparently complicate the instrument structure. To fully system error correction that will affect theprecision of instrument mainly random error. Instrument is the main task of error correction is to use a certain method to compensate separableinstruments each component part of a deterministic system error, so the key problems of error correction as is the requirement of equipmentstructure stability is good, with this to ensure that the instrument error of the uncertainty, so that the fundamental fl aw. Under this basis, this paperproposes the novel countermeasure of the issues that is innovative.展开更多
This paper proposes a design of internal model control systems for process with delay by using support vector regression(SVR).The proposed system fully uses the excellent nonlinear estimation performance of SVR with t...This paper proposes a design of internal model control systems for process with delay by using support vector regression(SVR).The proposed system fully uses the excellent nonlinear estimation performance of SVR with the structural risk minimization principle.Closed-system stability and steady error are analyzed for the existence of modeling errors.The simulations show that the proposed control systems have the better control performance than that by neural networks in the cases of the training samples with small size and noises.展开更多
Heilongjiang is a large agriculture province.Problems of agriculture,rural areas and farmers are urgent to be solved.The development of agriculture needs the support of agricultural credits,because finance is the cent...Heilongjiang is a large agriculture province.Problems of agriculture,rural areas and farmers are urgent to be solved.The development of agriculture needs the support of agricultural credits,because finance is the center of agriculture economy.However,the low comparative advantage in agriculture and pursuit of the capital interests which aggravate the conflicts of supply and demand of agricultural funds.Lacking of fund is the main factor that constrains the development of agricultural economy.In order to analyze the economic effect of agricultural credits on agricultural economy,an error correction model was set up to research the relationship between them,which based on the least square methods.Through the study of the contribution from agricultural credits to total value of agricultural out-put,the empirical evidence for developing the rural financial vigorously was provided,in order to promote the agricultura leconomic development.展开更多
Machine learning models were used to improve the accuracy of China Meteorological Administration Multisource Precipitation Analysis System(CMPAS)in complex terrain areas by combining rain gauge precipitation with topo...Machine learning models were used to improve the accuracy of China Meteorological Administration Multisource Precipitation Analysis System(CMPAS)in complex terrain areas by combining rain gauge precipitation with topographic factors like altitude,slope,slope direction,slope variability,surface roughness,and meteorological factors like temperature and wind speed.The results of the correction demonstrated that the ensemble learning method has a considerably corrective effect and the three methods(Random Forest,AdaBoost,and Bagging)adopted in the study had similar results.The mean bias between CMPAS and 85%of automatic weather stations has dropped by more than 30%.The plateau region displays the largest accuracy increase,the winter season shows the greatest error reduction,and decreasing precipitation improves the correction outcome.Additionally,the heavy precipitation process’precision has improved to some degree.For individual stations,the revised CMPAS error fluctuation range is significantly reduced.展开更多
The errors in wind power forecast will incur additional cost.It is critical to quantify the relationship between forecasting error in wind speed and power output.Unlike previous works that have rarely considered the s...The errors in wind power forecast will incur additional cost.It is critical to quantify the relationship between forecasting error in wind speed and power output.Unlike previous works that have rarely considered the speed error,we propose a comprehensive and repeatable wind power forecast correction model that quantitatively assess the impacts of speed error on power error,based on the power curves,speed predictions and distribution of speed forecast error.In this correction model,the power forecast error is obtained by calculating the mathematical expectation.The mathematical expectation of the wind power error is equal to the integral of the wind power error multiplied by its associated probability.Additionally,power forecast error and its probability are constructed as a function of speed forecast error and speed forecast error probability,respectively.To evaluate the model performance,numerical simulations are carried out in Guilin,Xiangyang and Xihai.The results suggest that the model can reduce the biases between observed and forecasted power,with the correlation coefficients increasing by over 15%in Guilin and Xihai.Furthermore,the root mean square error exhibits notable decline,with a reduction of over 35%,from 0.34 to 0.21 MW,from 0.42 to 0.27 MW and from 0.39 to 0.24 MW in the three aforementioned locations,respectively.This study contributes to enhancing the efficiency of wind power generation.展开更多
In this paper, an analogue correction method of errors （ACE） based on a complicated atmospheric model is further developed and applied to numerical weather prediction （NWP）. The analysis shows that the ACE can eff...In this paper, an analogue correction method of errors （ACE） based on a complicated atmospheric model is further developed and applied to numerical weather prediction （NWP）. The analysis shows that the ACE can effectively reduce model errors by combining the statistical analogue method with the dynamical model together in order that the information of plenty of historical data is utilized in the current complicated NWP model, Furthermore, in the ACE, the differences of the similarities between different historical analogues and the current initial state are considered as the weights for estimating model errors. The results of daily, decad and monthly prediction experiments on a complicated T63 atmospheric model show that the performance of the ACE by correcting model errors based on the estimation of the errors of 4 historical analogue predictions is not only better than that of the scheme of only introducing the correction of the errors of every single analogue prediction, but is also better than that of the T63 model.展开更多
Longley-Rice channel model modifies the atmospheric refraction by the equivalent earth radius method, which is simple calculation but is not accurate. As it only uses the horizontal difference, but does not make use o...Longley-Rice channel model modifies the atmospheric refraction by the equivalent earth radius method, which is simple calculation but is not accurate. As it only uses the horizontal difference, but does not make use of the vertical section information, it does not agree with the actual propagation path. The atmospheric refraction error correction method of the Longley-Rice channel model has been improved. The improved method makes use of the vertical section information sufficiently and maps the distance between the receiver and transmitter to the radio wave propagation distance, It can exactly reflect the infection of propagation distance for the radio wave propagation loss. It is predicted to be more close to the experimental results by simulation in comparison with the measured data. The effectiveness of improved methods is proved by simulation.展开更多
The concept of cointegration describes an equilibrium relationship among a set of time-varying variables, and the cointegrated relationship can be represented through an error-correction model (ECM). The error-correct...The concept of cointegration describes an equilibrium relationship among a set of time-varying variables, and the cointegrated relationship can be represented through an error-correction model (ECM). The error-correction variable, which represents the short-run discrepancy from the equilibrium state in a cointegrated system, plays an important role in the ECM. It is natural to ask how the error-correction mechanism works, or equivalently, how the short-run discrepancy affects the development of the cointegrated system? This paper examines the effect or local influence on the error-correction variable in an error-correction model. Following the argument of the second-order approach to local influence suggested by reference [5], we develop a diagnostic statistic to examine the local influence on the estimation of the parameter associated with the error-correction variable in an ECM. An empirical example is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed diagnostic. We find that the short-run discre pancy may have strong influence on the estimation of the parameter associated with the error-correction model. It is the error-correction variable that the short-run discrepancies can be incorporated through the error-correction mechanism.展开更多
Chemical processes are complex, for which traditional neural network models usually can not lead to satisfactory accuracy. Selective neural network ensemble is an effective way to enhance the generalization accuracy o...Chemical processes are complex, for which traditional neural network models usually can not lead to satisfactory accuracy. Selective neural network ensemble is an effective way to enhance the generalization accuracy of networks, but there are some problems, e.g., lacking of unified definition of diversity among component neural networks and difficult to improve the accuracy by selecting if the diversities of available networks are small. In this study, the output errors of networks are vectorized, the diversity of networks is defined based on the error vectors, and the size of ensemble is analyzed. Then an error vectorization based selective neural network ensemble (EVSNE) is proposed, in which the error vector of each network can offset that of the other networks by training the component networks orderly. Thus the component networks have large diversity. Experiments and comparisons over standard data sets and actual chemical process data set for production of high-density polyethylene demonstrate that EVSNE performs better in generalization ability.展开更多
Complex water movement and insufficient observation stations are the unfavorable factors in improving the accuracy of flow calculation of river networks. A water level updating model for river networks was set up base...Complex water movement and insufficient observation stations are the unfavorable factors in improving the accuracy of flow calculation of river networks. A water level updating model for river networks was set up based on a three-step method at key nodes, and model correction values were collected from gauge stations. To improve the accuracy of water level and discharge forecasts for the entire network, the discrete coefficients of the Saint-Venant equations for river sections were regarded as the media carrying the correction values from observation locations to other cross-sections of the river network system. To examine the applicability, the updating model was applied to flow calculation of an ideal river network and the Chengtong section of the Yangtze River. Comparison of the forecast results with the observed data demonstrates that this updating model can improve the forecast accuracy in both ideal and real river networks.展开更多
Model errors offset by constant and time-variant optimal forcing vector approaches （termed COF and OFV, respectively） are analyzed within the framework of E1 Nifio simulations. Applying the COF and OFV approaches to...Model errors offset by constant and time-variant optimal forcing vector approaches （termed COF and OFV, respectively） are analyzed within the framework of E1 Nifio simulations. Applying the COF and OFV approaches to the well-known Zebiak-Cane model, we re-simulate the 1997 and 2004 E1 Nifio events, both of which were poorly degraded by a certain amount of model error when the initial anomalies were generated by coupling the observed wind forcing to an ocean com- ponent. It is found that the Zebiak-Cane model with the COF approach roughly reproduced the 1997 E1 Nifio, but the 2004 E1 Nifio simulated by this approach defied an ENSO classification, i.e., it was hardly distinguishable as CP-E1 Nifio or EP-E1 Nifio. In hoth E1 Nifio simulations, substituting the COF with the OFV improved the fit between the simulations and obser- vations because the OFV better manages the time-variant errors in the model. Furthermore, the OFV approach effectively corrected the modeled E1 Nifio events even when the observational data （and hence the computational time） were reduced. Such a cost-effective offset of model errors suggests a role for the OFV approach in complicated CGCMs.展开更多
According to the data of the total trade of agricultural products between China and the United States from 2009 to 2018 and the general description of agriculture in China,this paper adopts the method of econometric m...According to the data of the total trade of agricultural products between China and the United States from 2009 to 2018 and the general description of agriculture in China,this paper adopts the method of econometric model to make a detailed analysis of the agricultural trade between China and the United States by using cointegration analysis,Granger causality test and error correction model in order to explore the impact of agricultural trade between China and the United States on China’s agricultural development. The results of empirical analysis show that there is a balanced relationship between the trade of agricultural products between China and the United States and the development of agriculture in China. The total trade of agricultural products between China and the United States affects the development of China’s agriculture.In addition,in the short term,if the short-term fluctuation deviates from the long-term equilibrium,then the error correction term will reverse it with strength of 0. 378,so that the non-equilibrium state will gradually return to the equilibrium state.展开更多
This study aims to address the deviation in downstream tasks caused by inaccurate recognition results when applying Automatic Speech Recognition(ASR)technology in the Air Traffic Control(ATC)field.This paper presents ...This study aims to address the deviation in downstream tasks caused by inaccurate recognition results when applying Automatic Speech Recognition(ASR)technology in the Air Traffic Control(ATC)field.This paper presents a novel cascaded model architecture,namely Conformer-CTC/Attention-T5(CCAT),to build a highly accurate and robust ATC speech recognition model.To tackle the challenges posed by noise and fast speech rate in ATC,the Conformer model is employed to extract robust and discriminative speech representations from raw waveforms.On the decoding side,the Attention mechanism is integrated to facilitate precise alignment between input features and output characters.The Text-To-Text Transfer Transformer(T5)language model is also introduced to handle particular pronunciations and code-mixing issues,providing more accurate and concise textual output for downstream tasks.To enhance the model’s robustness,transfer learning and data augmentation techniques are utilized in the training strategy.The model’s performance is optimized by performing hyperparameter tunings,such as adjusting the number of attention heads,encoder layers,and the weights of the loss function.The experimental results demonstrate the significant contributions of data augmentation,hyperparameter tuning,and error correction models to the overall model performance.On the Our ATC Corpus dataset,the proposed model achieves a Character Error Rate(CER)of 3.44%,representing a 3.64%improvement compared to the baseline model.Moreover,the effectiveness of the proposed model is validated on two publicly available datasets.On the AISHELL-1 dataset,the CCAT model achieves a CER of 3.42%,showcasing a 1.23%improvement over the baseline model.Similarly,on the LibriSpeech dataset,the CCAT model achieves a Word Error Rate(WER)of 5.27%,demonstrating a performance improvement of 7.67%compared to the baseline model.Additionally,this paper proposes an evaluation criterion for assessing the robustness of ATC speech recognition systems.In robustness evaluation experiments based on this criterion,the proposed model demonstrates a performance improvement of 22%compared to the baseline model.展开更多
The algorithm of fingerprint constructing for still images based on weighted image structure model is proposed. The error correcting codes that are perfect in weighted Hamming metric are used as a base for fingerprint...The algorithm of fingerprint constructing for still images based on weighted image structure model is proposed. The error correcting codes that are perfect in weighted Hamming metric are used as a base for fingerprint constructing.展开更多
The article initially reviews various works describing the physical model (PM) of Michelson’s interferometric experiment (ME), represented by the race between two swimmers Sw1, Sw2 (or boats, or planes, or sound sign...The article initially reviews various works describing the physical model (PM) of Michelson’s interferometric experiment (ME), represented by the race between two swimmers Sw1, Sw2 (or boats, or planes, or sound signals, etc.). The two swimmers must each swim the same distance, but Sw1 will swim along the river flow, and Sw2 will swim perpendicularly to this direction. In all such works, it is considered that Sw2’s path will require less time and that it will reach the start point first. However, in this work, it has been determined that in order to make this possible, Sw2 must not observe the orthogonality rule of his start direction. This action would be deceitful to the arbiters and thus considered as non-fair-play towards Sw1. The article proves by swimming times calculus, that if the fair-play rules are observed, then the correct crosswise path (in water reference frame) is a right triangle instead of the isosceles triangle considered by Michelson. Consequently, the two times shall be perfectly equal and the race ends in a tie, and the myth of Sw2 as the race winner shall be debunked. Note that the same result shall also be applicable to Michelson’s interferometric experiment (ME) as well as to any similar experiment. Therefore, utilising the isosceles triangle as the transversal path in PM and also in ME is an erroneous act.展开更多
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation Science Fund for Youth (Grant No.41405095)the Key Projects in the National Science and Technology Pillar Program during the Twelfth Fiveyear Plan Period (Grant No.2012BAC22B02)the National Natural Science Foundation Science Fund for Creative Research Groups (Grant No.41221064)
文摘Errors inevitably exist in numerical weather prediction （NWP） due to imperfect numeric and physical parameterizations. To eliminate these errors, by considering NWP as an inverse problem, an unknown term in the prediction equations can be estimated inversely by using the past data, which are presumed to represent the imperfection of the NWP model （model error, denoted as ME）. In this first paper of a two-part series, an iteration method for obtaining the MEs in past intervals is presented, and the results from testing its convergence in idealized experiments are reported. Moreover, two batches of iteration tests were applied in the global forecast system of the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System （GRAPES-GFS） for July-August 2009 and January-February 2010. The datasets associated with the initial conditions and sea surface temperature （SST） were both based on NCEP （National Centers for Environmental Prediction） FNL （final） data. The results showed that 6th h forecast errors were reduced to 10% of their original value after a 20-step iteration. Then, off-line forecast error corrections were estimated linearly based on the 2-month mean MEs and compared with forecast errors. The estimated error corrections agreed well with the forecast errors, but the linear growth rate of the estimation was steeper than the forecast error. The advantage of this iteration method is that the MEs can provide the foundation for online correction. A larger proportion of the forecast errors can be expected to be canceled out by properly introducing the model error correction into GRAPES-GFS.
基金Supported by the Scientific Research Subject of Department of Education in Hunan Province(10C0556)
文摘By using error correction model, I conduct co-integration analysis on the research of the relationship between the per capita practical consumption and per capita practical disposable income of urban residents in Hunan Province from 1978 to 2009. The results show that there is a co-integration relationship between the per capita practical consumption and the practical per capita disposable income of urban residents, and based on these, the corresponding error correction model is established. Finally, corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward as follows: broaden the income channel of urban residents; create goods consuming environment; perfect socialist security system.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation Science Fund for Youth (Grant No.41405095)the Key Projects in the National Science and Technology Pillar Program during the Twelfth Fiveyear Plan Period (Grant No.2012BAC22B02)the National Natural Science Foundation Science Fund for Creative Research Groups (Grant No.41221064)
文摘An online systematic error correction is presented and examined as a technique to improve the accuracy of real-time numerical weather prediction, based on the dataset of model errors （MEs） in past intervals. Given the analyses, the ME in each interval （6 h） between two analyses can be iteratively obtained by introducing an unknown tendency term into the prediction equation, shown in Part I of this two-paper series. In this part, after analyzing the 5-year （2001-2005） GRAPES- GFS （Global Forecast System of the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System） error patterns and evolution, a systematic model error correction is given based on the least-squares approach by firstly using the past MEs. To test the correction, we applied the approach in GRAPES-GFS for July 2009 and January 2010. The datasets associated with the initial condition and SST used in this study were based on NCEP （National Centers for Environmental Prediction） FNL （final） data. The results indicated that the Northern Hemispheric systematically underestimated equator-to-pole geopotential gradient and westerly wind of GRAPES-GFS were largely enhanced, and the biases of temperature and wind in the tropics were strongly reduced. Therefore, the correction results in a more skillful forecast with lower mean bias and root-mean-square error and higher anomaly correlation coefficient.
文摘Euler angle error model, rotation vector error model （RVE） and quaternion error model （QE） were qualitatively and quantitatively compared and an in-flight alignment filter algorithm was designed. This algorithm used extended Kalman filter （EKF） based on RVE and QE separately avoi- ding the accuracy problem of the Euler angle model and used Rauch-Tung-Striebel（RTS） smoothing method to refine the accuracy recuperating the coning error for simplified RVE. Simulation results show that RVE and QE are more adapt for nonlinear filter estimation than the Euler angle model. The filter algorithm designed has more advantages in convergence speed, accuracy and stability comparing with the algorithm based on the three models separately.
文摘In this paper, we conduct research on the large precision instrument error correction model under the perspectives of stability androbustness. It is one of the effective methods to improve the instruments accuracy using error correction technology, but at present, a lot of errorcorrection is limited to the system error modifi cation, only a small number of the instruments to an error in the dynamic error correction timely,device on the instrument precision sensors, apparently complicate the instrument structure. To fully system error correction that will affect theprecision of instrument mainly random error. Instrument is the main task of error correction is to use a certain method to compensate separableinstruments each component part of a deterministic system error, so the key problems of error correction as is the requirement of equipmentstructure stability is good, with this to ensure that the instrument error of the uncertainty, so that the fundamental fl aw. Under this basis, this paperproposes the novel countermeasure of the issues that is innovative.
文摘This paper proposes a design of internal model control systems for process with delay by using support vector regression(SVR).The proposed system fully uses the excellent nonlinear estimation performance of SVR with the structural risk minimization principle.Closed-system stability and steady error are analyzed for the existence of modeling errors.The simulations show that the proposed control systems have the better control performance than that by neural networks in the cases of the training samples with small size and noises.
基金Supported by the Fund for Heilongjiang Province Philosophy and Social Sciences Project (08E015)Social Sciences Fund of the Heilongjiang Provincial Education Department (11542014)Scientific Research Fund of Northeast Agricultural University
文摘Heilongjiang is a large agriculture province.Problems of agriculture,rural areas and farmers are urgent to be solved.The development of agriculture needs the support of agricultural credits,because finance is the center of agriculture economy.However,the low comparative advantage in agriculture and pursuit of the capital interests which aggravate the conflicts of supply and demand of agricultural funds.Lacking of fund is the main factor that constrains the development of agricultural economy.In order to analyze the economic effect of agricultural credits on agricultural economy,an error correction model was set up to research the relationship between them,which based on the least square methods.Through the study of the contribution from agricultural credits to total value of agricultural out-put,the empirical evidence for developing the rural financial vigorously was provided,in order to promote the agricultura leconomic development.
基金Program of Science and Technology Department of Sichuan Province(2022YFS0541-02)Program of Heavy Rain and Drought-flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province(SCQXKJQN202121)Innovative Development Program of the China Meteorological Administration(CXFZ2021Z007)。
文摘Machine learning models were used to improve the accuracy of China Meteorological Administration Multisource Precipitation Analysis System(CMPAS)in complex terrain areas by combining rain gauge precipitation with topographic factors like altitude,slope,slope direction,slope variability,surface roughness,and meteorological factors like temperature and wind speed.The results of the correction demonstrated that the ensemble learning method has a considerably corrective effect and the three methods(Random Forest,AdaBoost,and Bagging)adopted in the study had similar results.The mean bias between CMPAS and 85%of automatic weather stations has dropped by more than 30%.The plateau region displays the largest accuracy increase,the winter season shows the greatest error reduction,and decreasing precipitation improves the correction outcome.Additionally,the heavy precipitation process’precision has improved to some degree.For individual stations,the revised CMPAS error fluctuation range is significantly reduced.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42205040,42275009 and 42205170)the Beijing Meteorological Bureau(202201007)+1 种基金Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education&Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters open research project(202303 and 202306)China Meteorological Administration Training Centre Youth Research Program(2023CMATCQN05).
文摘The errors in wind power forecast will incur additional cost.It is critical to quantify the relationship between forecasting error in wind speed and power output.Unlike previous works that have rarely considered the speed error,we propose a comprehensive and repeatable wind power forecast correction model that quantitatively assess the impacts of speed error on power error,based on the power curves,speed predictions and distribution of speed forecast error.In this correction model,the power forecast error is obtained by calculating the mathematical expectation.The mathematical expectation of the wind power error is equal to the integral of the wind power error multiplied by its associated probability.Additionally,power forecast error and its probability are constructed as a function of speed forecast error and speed forecast error probability,respectively.To evaluate the model performance,numerical simulations are carried out in Guilin,Xiangyang and Xihai.The results suggest that the model can reduce the biases between observed and forecasted power,with the correlation coefficients increasing by over 15%in Guilin and Xihai.Furthermore,the root mean square error exhibits notable decline,with a reduction of over 35%,from 0.34 to 0.21 MW,from 0.42 to 0.27 MW and from 0.39 to 0.24 MW in the three aforementioned locations,respectively.This study contributes to enhancing the efficiency of wind power generation.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （Grant Nos 40575036 and 40325015）.Acknowledgement The authors thank Drs Zhang Pei-Qun and Bao Ming very much for their valuable comments on the present paper.
文摘In this paper, an analogue correction method of errors （ACE） based on a complicated atmospheric model is further developed and applied to numerical weather prediction （NWP）. The analysis shows that the ACE can effectively reduce model errors by combining the statistical analogue method with the dynamical model together in order that the information of plenty of historical data is utilized in the current complicated NWP model, Furthermore, in the ACE, the differences of the similarities between different historical analogues and the current initial state are considered as the weights for estimating model errors. The results of daily, decad and monthly prediction experiments on a complicated T63 atmospheric model show that the performance of the ACE by correcting model errors based on the estimation of the errors of 4 historical analogue predictions is not only better than that of the scheme of only introducing the correction of the errors of every single analogue prediction, but is also better than that of the T63 model.
文摘Longley-Rice channel model modifies the atmospheric refraction by the equivalent earth radius method, which is simple calculation but is not accurate. As it only uses the horizontal difference, but does not make use of the vertical section information, it does not agree with the actual propagation path. The atmospheric refraction error correction method of the Longley-Rice channel model has been improved. The improved method makes use of the vertical section information sufficiently and maps the distance between the receiver and transmitter to the radio wave propagation distance, It can exactly reflect the infection of propagation distance for the radio wave propagation loss. It is predicted to be more close to the experimental results by simulation in comparison with the measured data. The effectiveness of improved methods is proved by simulation.
基金This project was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation (No. 79800012 and No. 79400014).
文摘The concept of cointegration describes an equilibrium relationship among a set of time-varying variables, and the cointegrated relationship can be represented through an error-correction model (ECM). The error-correction variable, which represents the short-run discrepancy from the equilibrium state in a cointegrated system, plays an important role in the ECM. It is natural to ask how the error-correction mechanism works, or equivalently, how the short-run discrepancy affects the development of the cointegrated system? This paper examines the effect or local influence on the error-correction variable in an error-correction model. Following the argument of the second-order approach to local influence suggested by reference [5], we develop a diagnostic statistic to examine the local influence on the estimation of the parameter associated with the error-correction variable in an ECM. An empirical example is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed diagnostic. We find that the short-run discre pancy may have strong influence on the estimation of the parameter associated with the error-correction model. It is the error-correction variable that the short-run discrepancies can be incorporated through the error-correction mechanism.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (61074153, 61104131)the Fundamental Research Fundsfor Central Universities of China (ZY1111, JD1104)
文摘Chemical processes are complex, for which traditional neural network models usually can not lead to satisfactory accuracy. Selective neural network ensemble is an effective way to enhance the generalization accuracy of networks, but there are some problems, e.g., lacking of unified definition of diversity among component neural networks and difficult to improve the accuracy by selecting if the diversities of available networks are small. In this study, the output errors of networks are vectorized, the diversity of networks is defined based on the error vectors, and the size of ensemble is analyzed. Then an error vectorization based selective neural network ensemble (EVSNE) is proposed, in which the error vector of each network can offset that of the other networks by training the component networks orderly. Thus the component networks have large diversity. Experiments and comparisons over standard data sets and actual chemical process data set for production of high-density polyethylene demonstrate that EVSNE performs better in generalization ability.
基金supported by the Major Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51190091)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51009045)the Open Research Fund Program of the State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science of Wuhan University(Grant No.2012B094)
文摘Complex water movement and insufficient observation stations are the unfavorable factors in improving the accuracy of flow calculation of river networks. A water level updating model for river networks was set up based on a three-step method at key nodes, and model correction values were collected from gauge stations. To improve the accuracy of water level and discharge forecasts for the entire network, the discrete coefficients of the Saint-Venant equations for river sections were regarded as the media carrying the correction values from observation locations to other cross-sections of the river network system. To examine the applicability, the updating model was applied to flow calculation of an ideal river network and the Chengtong section of the Yangtze River. Comparison of the forecast results with the observed data demonstrates that this updating model can improve the forecast accuracy in both ideal and real river networks.
基金sponsored by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2012CB955202)the National Public Benefit(Meteorology)Research Foundation of China(Grant No.GYHY201306018)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41176013 and41230420)
文摘Model errors offset by constant and time-variant optimal forcing vector approaches （termed COF and OFV, respectively） are analyzed within the framework of E1 Nifio simulations. Applying the COF and OFV approaches to the well-known Zebiak-Cane model, we re-simulate the 1997 and 2004 E1 Nifio events, both of which were poorly degraded by a certain amount of model error when the initial anomalies were generated by coupling the observed wind forcing to an ocean com- ponent. It is found that the Zebiak-Cane model with the COF approach roughly reproduced the 1997 E1 Nifio, but the 2004 E1 Nifio simulated by this approach defied an ENSO classification, i.e., it was hardly distinguishable as CP-E1 Nifio or EP-E1 Nifio. In hoth E1 Nifio simulations, substituting the COF with the OFV improved the fit between the simulations and obser- vations because the OFV better manages the time-variant errors in the model. Furthermore, the OFV approach effectively corrected the modeled E1 Nifio events even when the observational data （and hence the computational time） were reduced. Such a cost-effective offset of model errors suggests a role for the OFV approach in complicated CGCMs.
文摘According to the data of the total trade of agricultural products between China and the United States from 2009 to 2018 and the general description of agriculture in China,this paper adopts the method of econometric model to make a detailed analysis of the agricultural trade between China and the United States by using cointegration analysis,Granger causality test and error correction model in order to explore the impact of agricultural trade between China and the United States on China’s agricultural development. The results of empirical analysis show that there is a balanced relationship between the trade of agricultural products between China and the United States and the development of agriculture in China. The total trade of agricultural products between China and the United States affects the development of China’s agriculture.In addition,in the short term,if the short-term fluctuation deviates from the long-term equilibrium,then the error correction term will reverse it with strength of 0. 378,so that the non-equilibrium state will gradually return to the equilibrium state.
基金This study was co-supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2021YFF0603904)National Natural Science Foundation of China(U1733203)Safety Capacity Building Project of Civil Aviation Administration of China(TM2019-16-1/3).
文摘This study aims to address the deviation in downstream tasks caused by inaccurate recognition results when applying Automatic Speech Recognition(ASR)technology in the Air Traffic Control(ATC)field.This paper presents a novel cascaded model architecture,namely Conformer-CTC/Attention-T5(CCAT),to build a highly accurate and robust ATC speech recognition model.To tackle the challenges posed by noise and fast speech rate in ATC,the Conformer model is employed to extract robust and discriminative speech representations from raw waveforms.On the decoding side,the Attention mechanism is integrated to facilitate precise alignment between input features and output characters.The Text-To-Text Transfer Transformer(T5)language model is also introduced to handle particular pronunciations and code-mixing issues,providing more accurate and concise textual output for downstream tasks.To enhance the model’s robustness,transfer learning and data augmentation techniques are utilized in the training strategy.The model’s performance is optimized by performing hyperparameter tunings,such as adjusting the number of attention heads,encoder layers,and the weights of the loss function.The experimental results demonstrate the significant contributions of data augmentation,hyperparameter tuning,and error correction models to the overall model performance.On the Our ATC Corpus dataset,the proposed model achieves a Character Error Rate(CER)of 3.44%,representing a 3.64%improvement compared to the baseline model.Moreover,the effectiveness of the proposed model is validated on two publicly available datasets.On the AISHELL-1 dataset,the CCAT model achieves a CER of 3.42%,showcasing a 1.23%improvement over the baseline model.Similarly,on the LibriSpeech dataset,the CCAT model achieves a Word Error Rate(WER)of 5.27%,demonstrating a performance improvement of 7.67%compared to the baseline model.Additionally,this paper proposes an evaluation criterion for assessing the robustness of ATC speech recognition systems.In robustness evaluation experiments based on this criterion,the proposed model demonstrates a performance improvement of 22%compared to the baseline model.
文摘The algorithm of fingerprint constructing for still images based on weighted image structure model is proposed. The error correcting codes that are perfect in weighted Hamming metric are used as a base for fingerprint constructing.
文摘The article initially reviews various works describing the physical model (PM) of Michelson’s interferometric experiment (ME), represented by the race between two swimmers Sw1, Sw2 (or boats, or planes, or sound signals, etc.). The two swimmers must each swim the same distance, but Sw1 will swim along the river flow, and Sw2 will swim perpendicularly to this direction. In all such works, it is considered that Sw2’s path will require less time and that it will reach the start point first. However, in this work, it has been determined that in order to make this possible, Sw2 must not observe the orthogonality rule of his start direction. This action would be deceitful to the arbiters and thus considered as non-fair-play towards Sw1. The article proves by swimming times calculus, that if the fair-play rules are observed, then the correct crosswise path (in water reference frame) is a right triangle instead of the isosceles triangle considered by Michelson. Consequently, the two times shall be perfectly equal and the race ends in a tie, and the myth of Sw2 as the race winner shall be debunked. Note that the same result shall also be applicable to Michelson’s interferometric experiment (ME) as well as to any similar experiment. Therefore, utilising the isosceles triangle as the transversal path in PM and also in ME is an erroneous act.
