This paper discusses the application of the model in predicting for hydrothermal Cu, Ag, Au and Pb-Zn occurrences in northwestern Yunnan. Geochemical, lineament and lithology data were the selected recognition criteri...This paper discusses the application of the model in predicting for hydrothermal Cu, Ag, Au and Pb-Zn occurrences in northwestern Yunnan. Geochemical, lineament and lithology data were the selected recognition criteria. The mentioned criteria varied against 75 known hydrothermal occurrences; the geochemical data had a weight of （W^＋= 1. 209 7, W^- =-0. 748 1） being the maximum among the three and the rest lineament and lithology have （W^＋= 0.7424, W^-= -0.449 6）, （W^＋= 0.378 7,W^-=-0.6243） respectively. The application was successful since the predicted results covers about 70% of the known deposits and predicted unknown areas.展开更多
Gengma region, Sanjiang district is known to have some large-scale gold deposits. GIS predictive model for hydrothermal gold potential was carried out in this region using weights of evidence modeling technique. Datas...Gengma region, Sanjiang district is known to have some large-scale gold deposits. GIS predictive model for hydrothermal gold potential was carried out in this region using weights of evidence modeling technique. Datasets used include large-scale hydrothermal gold deposit records, geological, geophysical and remote sensing imagery. Based on the geological and mineral characteristics of areas with known gold occurrences in Sanjiang, several geological features were thought to be indicative of areas with potential for the occurrence of hydrothermal gold deposits. Indicative features were extracted from geoexploration datasets for use as input in the predictive model. The features include host rock lithology, geologic structures, wallrock alteration and associated (volcanic-plutonic) igneous rocks. To determine which of the indicative geological features are important spatial predictors of area with potential for gold deposits, spatial analysis was done through the modeling method. The input maps were buffered and the optimum distance of spatial association for each geological feature was determined by calculating the contrast and studentized contrast. Five feature maps were converted to binary predictor patterns and used as evidential layers for predictive modeling. The binary patterns were integrated in two combinations, each of which consists of four patterns in order to avoid over prediction due to the effect of duplicate features in the two structural evidences. The two produced potential maps define almost similar favorable zones. Areas of intersections between these zones in the two potential maps placed the highest predictive favorable zones in the region.展开更多
Weights of evidence （WofE） is an artificial intelligent method for integration of information from diverse sources for predictive purpose in supporting decision making. This method has been commonly used to predict ...Weights of evidence （WofE） is an artificial intelligent method for integration of information from diverse sources for predictive purpose in supporting decision making. This method has been commonly used to predict point events by integrating point training layer and binary or ternary evidential layers （multiclass evidence less commonly used）. Omnibus weights of evidence integrates fuzzy training layer and diverse evidential layers. This method provides new features in comparison with the ordinary Wore method. This new method has been implemented in a geographic information system-geophysical data analysis system and the method includes the following contents： （1） dual fuzzy weights of evidence （DFWofE）, in which training layer and evidential layers can be treated as fuzzy sets. DFWofE can be used to predict not only point events but also area or line events. In this model a fuzzy training layer can be defined based on point, line, and areas using fuzzy membership function; and （2） degree-of-exploration model for WorE is implemented through building a degree of exploration map. This method can be used to assess possible spatial correlations between the degree of exploration and potential evidential layers. Importantly, it would also make it possible to estimate undiscovered resources, if the degree of exploration map is combined with other models that predict where such resources are most likely to occur. These methods and relevant systems were vafidated using a case study of mineral potential prediction in Gejiu （个旧） mineral district, Yunnan （ 云南）, China.展开更多
Rainfall induced landslides are a common threat to the communities living on dangerous hillslopes in Chittagong Metropolitan Area, Bangladesh. Extreme population pressure, indiscriminate hill cutting, increased precip...Rainfall induced landslides are a common threat to the communities living on dangerous hillslopes in Chittagong Metropolitan Area, Bangladesh. Extreme population pressure, indiscriminate hill cutting, increased precipitation events due to global warming and associated unplanned urbanization in the hills are exaggerating landslide events. The aim of this article is to prepare a scientifically accurate landslide susceptibility map by combining landslide initiation and runout maps. Land cover, slope, soil permeability, surface geology, precipitation, aspect, and distance to hill cut, road cut, drainage and stream network factor maps were selected by conditional independence test. The locations of 56 landslides were collected by field surveying. A weight of evidence(Wo E) method was applied to calculate the positive(presence of landslides) and negative(absence of landslides) factor weights. A combination of analytical hierarchical process(AHP) and fuzzymembership standardization(weighs from 0 to 1) was applied for performing a spatial multi-criteria evaluation. Expert opinion guided the decision rule for AHP. The Flow-R tool that allows modeling landslide runout from the initiation sources was applied. The flow direction was calculated using the modified Holmgren's algorithm. The AHP landslide initiation and runout susceptibility maps were used to prepare a combined landslide susceptibility map. The relative operating characteristic curve was used for model validation purpose. The accuracy of Wo E, AHP, and combined susceptibility map was calculated 96%, 97%, and 98%, respectively.展开更多
The multivariate information comprehensive processing technique is especially important at present to the digital mineral prospecting. However, the GIS-based weights of evidence have provided us with a powerful tool f...The multivariate information comprehensive processing technique is especially important at present to the digital mineral prospecting. However, the GIS-based weights of evidence have provided us with a powerful tool for the quantitative assessment of mineral resource potential. In this paper, the mineralization model is established, based on the achievements made by previous researchers, to mend such deficiencies as few references on ore fields in Yujiacun, Yunnan Province and the shortage of quantitative prediction and assessment of mineral resources. In addition, the weights of evidence are used to make a systematic quantitative prediction and assessment of mineral resources there, so that 2 mineral prospecting target areas of grade Ⅰand 8 mineral prospecting target areas of grade Ⅱ are delineated, providing the further mineral resource exploration with the basis for the selection of mineral deposits.展开更多
Geological data are usually of the characteristics of multi-source, large amount and multi-scale. The construction of Spatial Information Grid overcomes the shortages of personal computers when dealing with geological...Geological data are usually of the characteristics of multi-source, large amount and multi-scale. The construction of Spatial Information Grid overcomes the shortages of personal computers when dealing with geological data. The authors introduce the definition, architecture and flow of mineral resources assessment by weights of evidence model based on Spatial Information Grid (SIG). Meanwhile, a case study on the prediction of copper mineral occurrence in the Middle-Lower Yangtze metallogenic belt is given. The results show that mineral resources assessement based on SIG is an effective new method which provides a way of sharing and integrating distributed geospatial information and improves the efficiency greatly.展开更多
The M_s 7.0 Lushan earthquake triggered a huge number of landslides. Landslide susceptibility mapping is of great importance. Weight of Evidence（Wo E） and Logistic Regression（LR） methods have been widely used for ...The M_s 7.0 Lushan earthquake triggered a huge number of landslides. Landslide susceptibility mapping is of great importance. Weight of Evidence（Wo E） and Logistic Regression（LR） methods have been widely used for LSM（Landslide Susceptibility Mapping）. However, limitations still exist. Wo E is capable of assessing the influence of different classes of each factor, but neglects the correlation between factors. LR is able to analyze the relationship among the factors while it is not capable of evaluating the influence of different classes. This paper proposes a combined method of LR and Wo E for LSM, taking advantage of their individual merits and overcoming their limitations. An inventory of 1289 landslides was used： 70% were random-selected for training and the remaining for validation. 11 landslide condition factors were employed in the model and the result was validated using Receiver Operating Characteristic（ROC） curve. The results showed that the LRWo E model had a better accuracy than the LR model, producing an area below the curve with values of 0.802 success and 0.791 predictive, higher than that of the LR model（0.715 success and 0.722 predictive）. It is therefore concluded that the combined method of Wo E and LR can provide a promising level of accuracy for earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility mapping.展开更多
Machine learning(ML)-based prediction models for mapping hazard(e.g.,landslide and debris flow)susceptibility have been widely developed in recent research.However,in some specific areas,ML models have limited applica...Machine learning(ML)-based prediction models for mapping hazard(e.g.,landslide and debris flow)susceptibility have been widely developed in recent research.However,in some specific areas,ML models have limited application because of the uncertainties in identifying negative samples.The Parlung Tsangpo Basin exemplifies a region prone to recurrent glacial debris flows(GDFs)and is characterized by a prominent landform featuring deep gullies.Considering the limitations of the ML model,we developed and compared two combined statistical models(FA-WE and FA-IC)based on factor analysis(FA),weight of evidence(WE),and the information content(IC)method.The final GDF susceptibility maps were generated by selecting 8 most important static factors and considering the influence of precipitation.The results show that the FA-IC model has the best performance.The areas with a very high susceptibility to GDFs are primarily located in the narrow valley section upstream,on both sides of the valley in the middle and downstream of the Parlung Tsangpo River,and in the narrow valley section of each tributary.These areas encompass 86 gullies and are characterized as"narrow and steep".展开更多
Dust storms in arid and desert areas affect radiation budget,air quality,visibility,enzymatic activities,agricultural products and human health.Due to increased drought and land use changes in recent years,the frequen...Dust storms in arid and desert areas affect radiation budget,air quality,visibility,enzymatic activities,agricultural products and human health.Due to increased drought and land use changes in recent years,the frequency of dust storms occurrence in Iran has been increased.This study aims to identify dust source areas in the Sistan watershed(Iran-Afghanistan borders)-an important regional source for dust storms in southwestern Asia,using remote sensing(RS)and bivariate statistical models.Furthermore,this study determines the relative importance of factors controlling dust emissions using frequency ratio(FR)and weights of evidence(WOE)models and interpretability of predictive models using game theory.For this purpose,we identified 211 dust sources in the study area and generated a dust source distribution map-inventory map-by dust source potential index based on RS data.In addition,spatial maps of topographic factors affecting dust source areas including soil,lithology,slope,Normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI),geomorphology and land use were prepared.The performance of two models(WOE and FR)was evaluated using the area under curve(AUC)of the receiver operating characteristic curve.The results showed that soil,geomorphology and slope exhibited the greatest influence in the dust source areas.The 55.3%(according to FR)and 62.6%(according to WOE)of the total area were classified as high and very high potential dust sources,while both models displayed acceptable accuracy with subsurface levels of 0.704 for FR and 0.751 for WOE,although they predict different fractions of dust potential classes.Based on Shapley additive explanations(SHAP),three factors,i.e.,soil,slope and NDVI have the highest impact on the model's output.Overall,combination of statistic-based predictive models(or data mining models),RS and game theory techniques can provide accurate maps of dust source areas in arid and semi-arid regions,which can be helpful for mitigation of negative effects of dust storms.展开更多
ABSTRACT The geologic features indicative of Cu, Pb, Zn mineral deposits in a area are fractures （structure）, and host rock sediments. Datasets used include Cu, Pb, Zn deposit points record, geological data, remote ...ABSTRACT The geologic features indicative of Cu, Pb, Zn mineral deposits in a area are fractures （structure）, and host rock sediments. Datasets used include Cu, Pb, Zn deposit points record, geological data, remote sensing imagery （Landsat TM5）. The mineral potential of the study area is assessed by means of GIS based geodata integration techniques for generating predictive maps. GIS predictive model for Cu, Pb, Zn potential was carried out in this study area （Weixi） using weight of evidence. The weights of evidence modeling techniques is the data driven method in which the spatial associations of the indicative geologic features with the known mineral occurrences in the area are quantified, and weights statistically assigned to the geologic features. The best predictive map generated by this method defines 24 % the area having potential for Cu, Pb, Zn mineralization further exploration work.展开更多
Hydrothermal activity in mid-ocean ridges(MORs)is an important intermediary for the mass and heat exchange between the ocean and lithosphere.The development of hydrothermal activity on MORs is primarily controlled by ...Hydrothermal activity in mid-ocean ridges(MORs)is an important intermediary for the mass and heat exchange between the ocean and lithosphere.The development of hydrothermal activity on MORs is primarily controlled by coupled magmatic and tectonic activities.In ultraslow-spreading ridges,deepdipping low-angle normal faults with large offsets,typically detachment faults in the inside corners of ridge offsets,favor the formation of tectonic-related hydrothermal activities,whereas volcanic-related hydrothermal fields are typically developed in neovolcanic zones in this category of the ridge system.However,whether tectonic or magmatic activity is dominant and to what extent they control the formation of hydrothermal activities on ultraslow-spreading ridges remain unclear.Segments in the west and east of the Gallieni transform fault(TF)located in the ultraslow-spreading Southwest Indian Ridge(SWIR),namely,western area(WA)and eastern area(EA),exhibit distinct magma-supply conditions that provide favorable conditions for examining the influence of magmatic and tectonic activities.We generated prediction models for these areas using the spatial analysis of the water depth,minor faults,large faults,ridge axis,nontransform discontinuity(NTD)inside corners,TF inside corners,Bouguer gravity anomaly,magnetic anomalies,and seismic activities.By employing the weights of evidence method,we reported that the formation of seafloor hydrothermal systems in SWIR was primarily correlated to the NTD inside corner,ridge axis,and minor fault(i.e.,contrast values(C)of 4.186,3.727,and 3.482 in WA and 4.278,3.769,and 3.135 in EA).Furthermore,EA was significantly affected by the TF inside corner(C=3.501),whereas WA was influenced by large faults(C=4.062).Our results demonstrated that tectonism was the primary controlling factor in the development of hydrothermal activities in the study area,and the contribution of magmatism was secondary,even in WA,which has a relatively robust magma supply.We delimited prominent prospecting areas at each side based on posterior probability.Our results provided insights into the formation mechanisms of hydrothermal activities and support prospecting in MORs.展开更多
Various contaminants are present in aquatic environment and pose potential threats to pelagic and benthic organisms,calling for effective risk assessment.Traditional risk assessments based on target analysis are usefu...Various contaminants are present in aquatic environment and pose potential threats to pelagic and benthic organisms,calling for effective risk assessment.Traditional risk assessments based on target analysis are useful when the principal contaminants responsible for ecological risk are known;however,these approaches become challenging when dealing with chemical mixtures.In addition,the compositions of chemical mixtures often differ in regions with different levels of socioeconomic develop-ment,requiring risk assessment methods that are applicable under different pollution scenarios.Herein,in situ bioassays were conducted with two native species,Chinese rare minnows(Gobiocypris rarus)and Asian clams(Corbicula fluminea),in economically developed watersheds in China(Pearl River Basin(PRB)and Taihu Lake Basin(THB))and agriculture-dominated Poyang Lake Basin(PYB).Significant lethal and sublethal effects(e.g.,neurotoxicity,reproductive toxicity,and metabolic and oxidative stress)were observed in fish and clams irrespective of economic gradients.Notably,ecological effects differed significantly between water and sediment phases within the same region.Target(98 contaminants)and suspect screening(942 contaminants)revealed regional-specific characteristics.Ecological risk assessments using a weight of evidence approach demonstrated that both water and sediment in the PRB were at moderate to high risk,as was the sediment in the less developed PYB.However,the characteristics of mixture pollution varied greatly among regions.Suspect screening identified many pollutants that are not regularly monitored but are present at high environmental concentrations and are linked to local industrial production.These distinct mixture risk characteristics across different basins suggest that mitigating aquatic pollution requires region-specific management measures.展开更多
Tens of thousands of landslides were triggered by May 12, 2008 earthquake over a broad area. The main purpose of this article is to apply and verify earthquake-triggered landslide hazard analysis techniques by using w...Tens of thousands of landslides were triggered by May 12, 2008 earthquake over a broad area. The main purpose of this article is to apply and verify earthquake-triggered landslide hazard analysis techniques by using weight of evidence modeling in Qingshui （清水） River watershed, Deyang （德阳） City, Sichuan （四川） Province, China. Two thousand three hundred and twenty-one landslides were interpreted in the study area from aerial photographs and multi-source remote sensing imageries post-earthquake, verified by field surveys. The landslide inventory in the study area was established. A spatial database, including landslides and associated controlling parameters that may have influence on the occurrence of landslides, was constructed from topographic maps, geological maps, and enhanced thematic mapper （ETM＋） remote sensing imageries. The factors that influence landslide occurrence,such as slope angle, aspect, curvature, elevation, flow accumulation, distance from drainages, and distance from roads were calculated from the topographic maps. Lithology, distance from seismogenic fault, distance from all faults, and distance from stratigraphic boundaries were derived from the geological maps. Normalized difference vegetation index （NDV1） was extracted from ETM＋ images. Seismic intensity zoning was collected from Wenchuan （汶川） Ms8.0 Earthquake Intensity Distribution Map published by the China Earthquake Administration.Landslide hazard indices were calculated using the weight of evidence model, and landslide hazard maps were calculated from using different controlling parameters cases. The hazard map was compared with known landslide locations and verified. The success accuracy percentage of using all 13 controlling parameters was 71.82%. The resulting landslide hazard map showed five classes of landslide hazard, i.e., very high, high, moderate, low, and very low. The validation results showed satisfactory agreement between the hazard map and the existing landslides distribution data. The landslide hazard map can be used to identify and delineate unstable hazard-prone areas. It can also help planners to choose favorable locations for development schemes, such as infrastructural, buildings, road constructions, and environmental protection.展开更多
Schistosomiasis is a serious public health problem in the middle-lower Yangtze River Basin in China. Study of spatial variation of snail distribution that is related to microgeographic factors can help to choose perti...Schistosomiasis is a serious public health problem in the middle-lower Yangtze River Basin in China. Study of spatial variation of snail distribution that is related to microgeographic factors can help to choose pertinent measures for snail extinguishment and environment rebuilding. This paper studied the theoretical architecture of weights-of-evidence approach. The case study was made for spatial relation between the occurrence of infected snails and geographic factor combinations in Waijiazhou marshland of Poyang Lake region in China. The multievidence data came from the geographical factor combinations by crossing operation of vegetation coverage grade layer, cattle route distance grade layer, and special environment layer (181 combinations in total) in GIS. The calculation of weight contrast index shows that high vegetation coverage, cattle route distance of <45 meters, and special geographic factor "ground depression" had direct spatial relation with the occurrence of infected snails. The verification by crossing operation in GIS indicated 72.45% of the infected snails concentrated on the areas of positive weight contrast index (sequenced in an order of weight contrast index from high to low), demonstrating the high efficiency of the model established in finding infected snails according to the geographic factor combinations that can be explicitly discerned in the study area.展开更多
Recent studies have pointed out that the widespread iron deposits in southwestern Fujian metallogenic belt(SFMB)(China) are skarn-type deposits associated with the Yanshanian granites. There is still excellent potenti...Recent studies have pointed out that the widespread iron deposits in southwestern Fujian metallogenic belt(SFMB)(China) are skarn-type deposits associated with the Yanshanian granites. There is still excellent potential for mineral exploration because large areas in this belt are covered by forest. A new predictive model for mapping skarn-type Fe deposit prospectivity in this belt was developed and focused on in this study, using five criteria as evidence:(1) the contact zones of Yanshanian granites(GRANITE);(2) the contact zones within the late Paleozoic marine sedimentary rocks and the carbonate formations(FORMATION);(3) the NE-NNE-trending faults(FAULT);(4) the zones of skarn alterations(SKARN); and(5) the aeromagnetic anomaly(AEROMAGNETIC). The fuzzy weights of evidence(FWof E) method, developed from the classical weights of evidence(Wof E) and based on fuzzy sets and fuzzy probabilities, could provide smaller variances and more accurate posterior probabilities and could effectively minimize the uncertainty caused by omitted or wrongly assigned data and be more flexible than the Wof E. It is an efficient and widely used method for mineral potential mapping. Random forests(RF) is a new and useful method for data-driven predictive mapping of mineral prospectivity method, and needs further scrutiny. Both prospectivity results respectively using the FWof E and RF methods reveal that the prediction model for the skarn-type Fe deposits in the SFMB is successful and efficient. Both methods suggested that the GRANITE and FORMATION are the most valuable evidence maps, followed by SKARN, AEROMAGNETIC, and FAULT. This is coincident with the skarn-type Fe deposit mineral model in the SFMB. The unstable performance experienced when FORMATION was omitted might indicate that the highest uncertainty and risk in follow-up exploration is related to the sequences. In addition, the performance of the RF method for the skarn-type Fe deposits prospectivity in the SFMB is better than the FWof E; therefore, it could be used to guide further exploration of skarn-type Fe prospects in the SFMB.展开更多
This study presents a statistical landslide susceptibility assessment(LSA) in a dynamic environment. The study area is located in the eastern part of Lanzhou, NW China. The Lanzhou area has exhibited rapid urbanizatio...This study presents a statistical landslide susceptibility assessment(LSA) in a dynamic environment. The study area is located in the eastern part of Lanzhou, NW China. The Lanzhou area has exhibited rapid urbanization rates over the past decade associated with greening, continuous land use change, and geomorphic reshaping activities. To consider the dynamics of the environment in the LSA, multitemporal data for landslide inventories and the corresponding causal factors were collected. The weights of evidence(Wof E) method was used to perform the LSA. Three time stamps, i.e., 2000, 2012, and 2016, were selected to assess the state of landslide susceptibility over time. The results show a clear evolution of the landslide susceptibility patterns that was mainly governed by anthropogenic activities directed toward generating safer building grounds for civil infrastructure. The low and very low susceptibility areas increased by approximately 10% between 2000 and 2016. At the same time, areas of medium, high and very high susceptibility zones decreased proportionally. Based on the results, an approach to design the statistical LSA under dynamic conditions is proposed, the issues and limitations of this approach are also discussed. The study shows that under dynamic conditions, the requirements for data quantity and quality increase significantly. A dynamic environment requires greater effort to estimate the causal relations between the landslides and controlling factors as well as for model validation.展开更多
The objective of prospectivity modeling is prediction of the conditional probability of the presence T = 1 or absence T = 0 of a target T given favorable or prohibitive predictors B, or construction of a two classes {...The objective of prospectivity modeling is prediction of the conditional probability of the presence T = 1 or absence T = 0 of a target T given favorable or prohibitive predictors B, or construction of a two classes {0,1} classification of T. A special case of logistic regression called weights-of-evidence （WofE） is geolo- gists＇ favorite method of prospectivity modeling due to its apparent simplicity. However, the numerical simplicity is deceiving as it is implied by the severe mathematical modeling assumption of joint conditional independence of all predictors given the target. General weights of evidence are explicitly introduced which are as simple to estimate as conventional weights, i.e., by counting, but do not require conditional independence. Complementary to the regres- sion view is the classification view on prospectivity modeling. Boosting is the construction of a strong classifier from a set of weak classifiers. From the regression point of view it is closely related to logistic regression. Boost weights-of-evidence （BoostWofE） was introduced into prospectivity modeling to counterbalance violations of the assumption of conditional independence even though relaxation of modeling assumptions with respect to weak classifiers was not the （initial） purpose of boosting. In the original publication of BoostWofE a fabricated dataset was used to ＂validate＂ this approach. Using the same fabricated dataset it is shown that BoostWofE cannot generally compensate lacking condi- tional independence whatever the consecutively proces- sing order of predictors. Thus the alleged features of BoostWofE are disproved by way of counterexamples, while theoretical findings are confirmed that logistic regression including interaction terms can exactly com- pensate violations of joint conditional independence if the predictors are indicators.展开更多
With the rapid development of big data technology, the personal credit evaluation industry has entered a new stage. Among them, the evaluation of personal credit based on mobile telecommunications data is one of the h...With the rapid development of big data technology, the personal credit evaluation industry has entered a new stage. Among them, the evaluation of personal credit based on mobile telecommunications data is one of the hotspots of current research. However, due to the complexity and diversity of personal credit evaluation variables, in order to reduce the complexity of the model and improve the prediction accuracy of the model, we need to reduce the dimension of the input variables. According to the data provided by a mobile telecommunications operator, this paper divides the data into a training sets and verification sets. We perform correlation analysis on each indicator of the data in the training set, and calculate the corresponding IV value based on the WOE value of the selected index, then binning data with SPSS Modeler. The selected variables were modeled using a logistic regression algorithm. In order to make the regression results more practical, we extract the scoring rules according to the results of logistic regression, convert them into the form of score cards, and finally verify the validity of the model.展开更多
Mineral resource potential mapping is a complex analytical process,which requires the consideration and the inte-gration of a number of spatial evidences like geological,geomorphological,and wall rock alteration.The a...Mineral resource potential mapping is a complex analytical process,which requires the consideration and the inte-gration of a number of spatial evidences like geological,geomorphological,and wall rock alteration.The aim of this paper is to establish mineral exploration model for copper,lead,and zinc in Lanping basin area using the capability of analytical tools of Geographic Information System(GIS) and remote sensing data to generate maps showing favorable mineralized area.The geo-exploration dataset used for the research includes copper,lead,and zinc deposits,geological maps,topographic maps,structural maps,and ETM+ imagery.Geological features indicative of potential copper,lead,and zinc were extracted from the datasets input in the predictive model.The method of weights of evidence modeling is a probability-based technique for generating mineral potential maps using the spatial distribution of indicative features with respect to the known mineral occur-rences.The method of weights of evidence probabilistic modeling provides a quantitative method for delineating areas with potential of copper,lead,and zinc mineral deposits in the Lanping Basin area.weights(W+,W-) and contrast(C=(W+) -(W-) ) calculations guide the data-driven modeling.The four most important spatial features for exploration guide for copper,lead,and zinc mineralization hosted in the Lanping Basin area are alteration zones,faults,host rocks,and lineaments.The host rocks and deep faults have the strongest spatial association with the known copper,lead,and zinc deposits.The hydrothermal alteration zones have the moderate spatial association with the copper,lead,and zinc deposits.The predicted high-favorability zones do not show the strong affinity with lineaments.The distribution of 22(copper,lead,and zinc) occur-rences in the Lanping Basin was examined in terms of spatial association with various geological phenomena.The analysis of these relationships using GIS and weights of evidence modeling has predicted areas of high and moderate mineral potential,where a little or no mining activities exist.展开更多
The North China district has been subjected to significant research with regard to the ore-forming dynamics,processes,and quantitative forecasting of gold deposits;it accounts for the highest number of gold reserves a...The North China district has been subjected to significant research with regard to the ore-forming dynamics,processes,and quantitative forecasting of gold deposits;it accounts for the highest number of gold reserves and annual products in China.Based on the top-level design of geoscience theory and the method adopted by the National Key R&D Project(deep process and metallogenic mechanism of North China Craton(NCC)metallogenic system),this paper systematically collects and constructs the geoscience data(district,camp,and deposit scales)in four key gold districts of North China(Jiaojia-Sanshandao,Southern Zhaoping,Wulong,and Qingchengzi).The settings associated with the geological dynamics of gold deposits were quantitatively and synthetically analyzed,namely:NCC destruction,metallogenic events,genetic models,and exploration models.Three-dimensional(3D)and four-dimensional(4D)geological modeling was performed using the big data on the districts,while the district-scale 3D exploration criteria were integrated to construct a quantitative exploration model.Among them,FLAC3D modelling and the Geo Cube software(version 3.0)were used to implement the numerical simulation of the 3D geological models and the constraints of the fluid saturation parameters of the Jiaojia fault to reconstruct the 4D fault structure models of the Jiaojia fault(with a depth of 5000 m).Using Geo Cube3.0,multiple integration modules(general weights of evidence(Wof E),Boost Wof E,Fuzzy Wof E,Logistic Regression,Information Entropy,and Random Forest)and exploration criteria were integrated,while the C-V fractal classification of A,B and C targets in four districts was carried out.The research results are summarized in the following four areas:(1)Four gold districts in the study area have more than three targets(the depth is 3000 m),and the class A,B and C targets exhibit a good spatial correlation with gold bodies that are controlled by mining engineering at depths greater than 1000 m.(2)The Boost Wof E method was used to identify the target optimization in 3D spaces(at depths of 3000–5000 m)of the Jiaojia-Sanshandao,Southern Zhaoping,and Wulong districts.(3)The general Wof E method is based on the Bayesian theory in 3D space and provides robust integration and target optimization that are suitable for the Jiaojia-Sanshandao and Southern Zhaoping districts in the Jiaodong area;it can also be applied to the Wulong district in the Liaodong area using a quantitative genetic model and an exploration model.Random forest is a multi-objective integration and target optimization method for 3D spaces,and it is suitable for the complex exploration model in the Qingchengzi district of the Liaodong area.The genetic model and exploration criteria associated with the exploration model of the Qingchengzi district were constrained by the common characteristics of the gold fault structure,magmatic rock emplacement in North China,and the strata fold and interlayer detachment structure.(4)Based on the gold reserves and the 3D block unit model of the Sanshandao gold deposit in the Jiaojia-Sanshandao district,the gold contents of the 3D block units in class A and B targets of the ore concentration were estimated to be 65.5%and 25.1%,respectively.The total Au resources of the optimized targets below a depth of 3000 m were 3908 t(including 1700 t reserves),and the total Au resources of the targets at depths from 3000 to 5000 m were 936 t.The study shows that the deep gold deposits in the four gold districts of North China exhibit a strong"transport-deposition"spatial correlation with potential targets.These"transport-deposition"spatial models represent the tectonic-magmatic-hydrothermal activities of the metallogenic system associated with the NCC destruction events and indicate the Au enrichment zones.展开更多
文摘This paper discusses the application of the model in predicting for hydrothermal Cu, Ag, Au and Pb-Zn occurrences in northwestern Yunnan. Geochemical, lineament and lithology data were the selected recognition criteria. The mentioned criteria varied against 75 known hydrothermal occurrences; the geochemical data had a weight of （W^＋= 1. 209 7, W^- =-0. 748 1） being the maximum among the three and the rest lineament and lithology have （W^＋= 0.7424, W^-= -0.449 6）, （W^＋= 0.378 7,W^-=-0.6243） respectively. The application was successful since the predicted results covers about 70% of the known deposits and predicted unknown areas.
文摘Gengma region, Sanjiang district is known to have some large-scale gold deposits. GIS predictive model for hydrothermal gold potential was carried out in this region using weights of evidence modeling technique. Datasets used include large-scale hydrothermal gold deposit records, geological, geophysical and remote sensing imagery. Based on the geological and mineral characteristics of areas with known gold occurrences in Sanjiang, several geological features were thought to be indicative of areas with potential for the occurrence of hydrothermal gold deposits. Indicative features were extracted from geoexploration datasets for use as input in the predictive model. The features include host rock lithology, geologic structures, wallrock alteration and associated (volcanic-plutonic) igneous rocks. To determine which of the indicative geological features are important spatial predictors of area with potential for gold deposits, spatial analysis was done through the modeling method. The input maps were buffered and the optimum distance of spatial association for each geological feature was determined by calculating the contrast and studentized contrast. Five feature maps were converted to binary predictor patterns and used as evidential layers for predictive modeling. The binary patterns were integrated in two combinations, each of which consists of four patterns in order to avoid over prediction due to the effect of duplicate features in the two structural evidences. The two produced potential maps define almost similar favorable zones. Areas of intersections between these zones in the two potential maps placed the highest predictive favorable zones in the region.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40638041)National Key Technology R&D Program (No. 2006BAB01A01)+2 种基金Project of China Geological Survey (No. 1212010633910)the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (Nos. 2006AA06Z115, 2006AA06Z113)State Key Laboratory of Geological Processes and Mineral Resources (No. GPMR2007-12)
文摘Weights of evidence （WofE） is an artificial intelligent method for integration of information from diverse sources for predictive purpose in supporting decision making. This method has been commonly used to predict point events by integrating point training layer and binary or ternary evidential layers （multiclass evidence less commonly used）. Omnibus weights of evidence integrates fuzzy training layer and diverse evidential layers. This method provides new features in comparison with the ordinary Wore method. This new method has been implemented in a geographic information system-geophysical data analysis system and the method includes the following contents： （1） dual fuzzy weights of evidence （DFWofE）, in which training layer and evidential layers can be treated as fuzzy sets. DFWofE can be used to predict not only point events but also area or line events. In this model a fuzzy training layer can be defined based on point, line, and areas using fuzzy membership function; and （2） degree-of-exploration model for WorE is implemented through building a degree of exploration map. This method can be used to assess possible spatial correlations between the degree of exploration and potential evidential layers. Importantly, it would also make it possible to estimate undiscovered resources, if the degree of exploration map is combined with other models that predict where such resources are most likely to occur. These methods and relevant systems were vafidated using a case study of mineral potential prediction in Gejiu （个旧） mineral district, Yunnan （ 云南）, China.
基金funded by the Center for Spatial Information Science and Systems at George Mason University, USABayes Ahmed is a Commonwealth Scholar funded by the UK govt
文摘Rainfall induced landslides are a common threat to the communities living on dangerous hillslopes in Chittagong Metropolitan Area, Bangladesh. Extreme population pressure, indiscriminate hill cutting, increased precipitation events due to global warming and associated unplanned urbanization in the hills are exaggerating landslide events. The aim of this article is to prepare a scientifically accurate landslide susceptibility map by combining landslide initiation and runout maps. Land cover, slope, soil permeability, surface geology, precipitation, aspect, and distance to hill cut, road cut, drainage and stream network factor maps were selected by conditional independence test. The locations of 56 landslides were collected by field surveying. A weight of evidence(Wo E) method was applied to calculate the positive(presence of landslides) and negative(absence of landslides) factor weights. A combination of analytical hierarchical process(AHP) and fuzzymembership standardization(weighs from 0 to 1) was applied for performing a spatial multi-criteria evaluation. Expert opinion guided the decision rule for AHP. The Flow-R tool that allows modeling landslide runout from the initiation sources was applied. The flow direction was calculated using the modified Holmgren's algorithm. The AHP landslide initiation and runout susceptibility maps were used to prepare a combined landslide susceptibility map. The relative operating characteristic curve was used for model validation purpose. The accuracy of Wo E, AHP, and combined susceptibility map was calculated 96%, 97%, and 98%, respectively.
文摘The multivariate information comprehensive processing technique is especially important at present to the digital mineral prospecting. However, the GIS-based weights of evidence have provided us with a powerful tool for the quantitative assessment of mineral resource potential. In this paper, the mineralization model is established, based on the achievements made by previous researchers, to mend such deficiencies as few references on ore fields in Yujiacun, Yunnan Province and the shortage of quantitative prediction and assessment of mineral resources. In addition, the weights of evidence are used to make a systematic quantitative prediction and assessment of mineral resources there, so that 2 mineral prospecting target areas of grade Ⅰand 8 mineral prospecting target areas of grade Ⅱ are delineated, providing the further mineral resource exploration with the basis for the selection of mineral deposits.
基金Supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Programof China(863 Program) Nos .2002AA134010 and 2002AA131010
文摘Geological data are usually of the characteristics of multi-source, large amount and multi-scale. The construction of Spatial Information Grid overcomes the shortages of personal computers when dealing with geological data. The authors introduce the definition, architecture and flow of mineral resources assessment by weights of evidence model based on Spatial Information Grid (SIG). Meanwhile, a case study on the prediction of copper mineral occurrence in the Middle-Lower Yangtze metallogenic belt is given. The results show that mineral resources assessement based on SIG is an effective new method which provides a way of sharing and integrating distributed geospatial information and improves the efficiency greatly.
基金financial support from the State Key Development Program of Basic Research of China(Grant:2011CB710601)Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research+1 种基金15K12483,G.Chen)from the Japanese Society for the Promotion of Sciencesupported by the Kyushu University Interdisciplinary Programs in Education and Projects in Research Development
文摘The M_s 7.0 Lushan earthquake triggered a huge number of landslides. Landslide susceptibility mapping is of great importance. Weight of Evidence（Wo E） and Logistic Regression（LR） methods have been widely used for LSM（Landslide Susceptibility Mapping）. However, limitations still exist. Wo E is capable of assessing the influence of different classes of each factor, but neglects the correlation between factors. LR is able to analyze the relationship among the factors while it is not capable of evaluating the influence of different classes. This paper proposes a combined method of LR and Wo E for LSM, taking advantage of their individual merits and overcoming their limitations. An inventory of 1289 landslides was used： 70% were random-selected for training and the remaining for validation. 11 landslide condition factors were employed in the model and the result was validated using Receiver Operating Characteristic（ROC） curve. The results showed that the LRWo E model had a better accuracy than the LR model, producing an area below the curve with values of 0.802 success and 0.791 predictive, higher than that of the LR model（0.715 success and 0.722 predictive）. It is therefore concluded that the combined method of Wo E and LR can provide a promising level of accuracy for earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility mapping.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42377170).
文摘Machine learning(ML)-based prediction models for mapping hazard(e.g.,landslide and debris flow)susceptibility have been widely developed in recent research.However,in some specific areas,ML models have limited application because of the uncertainties in identifying negative samples.The Parlung Tsangpo Basin exemplifies a region prone to recurrent glacial debris flows(GDFs)and is characterized by a prominent landform featuring deep gullies.Considering the limitations of the ML model,we developed and compared two combined statistical models(FA-WE and FA-IC)based on factor analysis(FA),weight of evidence(WE),and the information content(IC)method.The final GDF susceptibility maps were generated by selecting 8 most important static factors and considering the influence of precipitation.The results show that the FA-IC model has the best performance.The areas with a very high susceptibility to GDFs are primarily located in the narrow valley section upstream,on both sides of the valley in the middle and downstream of the Parlung Tsangpo River,and in the narrow valley section of each tributary.These areas encompass 86 gullies and are characterized as"narrow and steep".
基金The study was financially supported by the Fund for Support of Researchers and Technologists of Iran(97022330)Panhellenic Infrastructure for Atmospheric Composition and Climate Change(PANACEA,MIS 5021516)+1 种基金Competitiveness,Entrepreneurship and Innovation(NSRF 2014-2020)co-financed by Greece and the European Union(European Regional Development Fund).
文摘Dust storms in arid and desert areas affect radiation budget,air quality,visibility,enzymatic activities,agricultural products and human health.Due to increased drought and land use changes in recent years,the frequency of dust storms occurrence in Iran has been increased.This study aims to identify dust source areas in the Sistan watershed(Iran-Afghanistan borders)-an important regional source for dust storms in southwestern Asia,using remote sensing(RS)and bivariate statistical models.Furthermore,this study determines the relative importance of factors controlling dust emissions using frequency ratio(FR)and weights of evidence(WOE)models and interpretability of predictive models using game theory.For this purpose,we identified 211 dust sources in the study area and generated a dust source distribution map-inventory map-by dust source potential index based on RS data.In addition,spatial maps of topographic factors affecting dust source areas including soil,lithology,slope,Normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI),geomorphology and land use were prepared.The performance of two models(WOE and FR)was evaluated using the area under curve(AUC)of the receiver operating characteristic curve.The results showed that soil,geomorphology and slope exhibited the greatest influence in the dust source areas.The 55.3%(according to FR)and 62.6%(according to WOE)of the total area were classified as high and very high potential dust sources,while both models displayed acceptable accuracy with subsurface levels of 0.704 for FR and 0.751 for WOE,although they predict different fractions of dust potential classes.Based on Shapley additive explanations(SHAP),three factors,i.e.,soil,slope and NDVI have the highest impact on the model's output.Overall,combination of statistic-based predictive models(or data mining models),RS and game theory techniques can provide accurate maps of dust source areas in arid and semi-arid regions,which can be helpful for mitigation of negative effects of dust storms.
文摘ABSTRACT The geologic features indicative of Cu, Pb, Zn mineral deposits in a area are fractures （structure）, and host rock sediments. Datasets used include Cu, Pb, Zn deposit points record, geological data, remote sensing imagery （Landsat TM5）. The mineral potential of the study area is assessed by means of GIS based geodata integration techniques for generating predictive maps. GIS predictive model for Cu, Pb, Zn potential was carried out in this study area （Weixi） using weight of evidence. The weights of evidence modeling techniques is the data driven method in which the spatial associations of the indicative geologic features with the known mineral occurrences in the area are quantified, and weights statistically assigned to the geologic features. The best predictive map generated by this method defines 24 % the area having potential for Cu, Pb, Zn mineralization further exploration work.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42127807)Key Research and Development Program of Zhejiang Province(Grant No.2021C03016)+1 种基金Scientific Research Fund of the Second Institute of Oceanography,MNR(Grant No.SZ2201)China Ocean Mineral Resources R&D Association Project(Grant No.DY135-S1-1-01).
文摘Hydrothermal activity in mid-ocean ridges(MORs)is an important intermediary for the mass and heat exchange between the ocean and lithosphere.The development of hydrothermal activity on MORs is primarily controlled by coupled magmatic and tectonic activities.In ultraslow-spreading ridges,deepdipping low-angle normal faults with large offsets,typically detachment faults in the inside corners of ridge offsets,favor the formation of tectonic-related hydrothermal activities,whereas volcanic-related hydrothermal fields are typically developed in neovolcanic zones in this category of the ridge system.However,whether tectonic or magmatic activity is dominant and to what extent they control the formation of hydrothermal activities on ultraslow-spreading ridges remain unclear.Segments in the west and east of the Gallieni transform fault(TF)located in the ultraslow-spreading Southwest Indian Ridge(SWIR),namely,western area(WA)and eastern area(EA),exhibit distinct magma-supply conditions that provide favorable conditions for examining the influence of magmatic and tectonic activities.We generated prediction models for these areas using the spatial analysis of the water depth,minor faults,large faults,ridge axis,nontransform discontinuity(NTD)inside corners,TF inside corners,Bouguer gravity anomaly,magnetic anomalies,and seismic activities.By employing the weights of evidence method,we reported that the formation of seafloor hydrothermal systems in SWIR was primarily correlated to the NTD inside corner,ridge axis,and minor fault(i.e.,contrast values(C)of 4.186,3.727,and 3.482 in WA and 4.278,3.769,and 3.135 in EA).Furthermore,EA was significantly affected by the TF inside corner(C=3.501),whereas WA was influenced by large faults(C=4.062).Our results demonstrated that tectonism was the primary controlling factor in the development of hydrothermal activities in the study area,and the contribution of magmatism was secondary,even in WA,which has a relatively robust magma supply.We delimited prominent prospecting areas at each side based on posterior probability.Our results provided insights into the formation mechanisms of hydrothermal activities and support prospecting in MORs.
基金supported by Guangdong Provincial Department of Science and Technology(2023A1515011396)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42377270,42277265)the Innovative Research Team of Department of Education of Guangdong Province(2020KCXTD005).
文摘Various contaminants are present in aquatic environment and pose potential threats to pelagic and benthic organisms,calling for effective risk assessment.Traditional risk assessments based on target analysis are useful when the principal contaminants responsible for ecological risk are known;however,these approaches become challenging when dealing with chemical mixtures.In addition,the compositions of chemical mixtures often differ in regions with different levels of socioeconomic develop-ment,requiring risk assessment methods that are applicable under different pollution scenarios.Herein,in situ bioassays were conducted with two native species,Chinese rare minnows(Gobiocypris rarus)and Asian clams(Corbicula fluminea),in economically developed watersheds in China(Pearl River Basin(PRB)and Taihu Lake Basin(THB))and agriculture-dominated Poyang Lake Basin(PYB).Significant lethal and sublethal effects(e.g.,neurotoxicity,reproductive toxicity,and metabolic and oxidative stress)were observed in fish and clams irrespective of economic gradients.Notably,ecological effects differed significantly between water and sediment phases within the same region.Target(98 contaminants)and suspect screening(942 contaminants)revealed regional-specific characteristics.Ecological risk assessments using a weight of evidence approach demonstrated that both water and sediment in the PRB were at moderate to high risk,as was the sediment in the less developed PYB.However,the characteristics of mixture pollution varied greatly among regions.Suspect screening identified many pollutants that are not regularly monitored but are present at high environmental concentrations and are linked to local industrial production.These distinct mixture risk characteristics across different basins suggest that mitigating aquatic pollution requires region-specific management measures.
基金supported by the International Scientific Joint Project of China (No. 2009DFA21280)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40821160550)the Doctoral Candidate Innovation Research Support Program by Science & Technology Review (No. kjdb200902-5)
文摘Tens of thousands of landslides were triggered by May 12, 2008 earthquake over a broad area. The main purpose of this article is to apply and verify earthquake-triggered landslide hazard analysis techniques by using weight of evidence modeling in Qingshui （清水） River watershed, Deyang （德阳） City, Sichuan （四川） Province, China. Two thousand three hundred and twenty-one landslides were interpreted in the study area from aerial photographs and multi-source remote sensing imageries post-earthquake, verified by field surveys. The landslide inventory in the study area was established. A spatial database, including landslides and associated controlling parameters that may have influence on the occurrence of landslides, was constructed from topographic maps, geological maps, and enhanced thematic mapper （ETM＋） remote sensing imageries. The factors that influence landslide occurrence,such as slope angle, aspect, curvature, elevation, flow accumulation, distance from drainages, and distance from roads were calculated from the topographic maps. Lithology, distance from seismogenic fault, distance from all faults, and distance from stratigraphic boundaries were derived from the geological maps. Normalized difference vegetation index （NDV1） was extracted from ETM＋ images. Seismic intensity zoning was collected from Wenchuan （汶川） Ms8.0 Earthquake Intensity Distribution Map published by the China Earthquake Administration.Landslide hazard indices were calculated using the weight of evidence model, and landslide hazard maps were calculated from using different controlling parameters cases. The hazard map was compared with known landslide locations and verified. The success accuracy percentage of using all 13 controlling parameters was 71.82%. The resulting landslide hazard map showed five classes of landslide hazard, i.e., very high, high, moderate, low, and very low. The validation results showed satisfactory agreement between the hazard map and the existing landslides distribution data. The landslide hazard map can be used to identify and delineate unstable hazard-prone areas. It can also help planners to choose favorable locations for development schemes, such as infrastructural, buildings, road constructions, and environmental protection.
基金Supported by a the National Natural Science Fundation of China (No. 30590370)the Research Project "Spatial Simulation of Schistosomiasis Susceptible Areas in the Poyang Lake Region" Sponsored by Science Research Plan 2007 of Jiangxi Normal University (Natural Science Category)
文摘Schistosomiasis is a serious public health problem in the middle-lower Yangtze River Basin in China. Study of spatial variation of snail distribution that is related to microgeographic factors can help to choose pertinent measures for snail extinguishment and environment rebuilding. This paper studied the theoretical architecture of weights-of-evidence approach. The case study was made for spatial relation between the occurrence of infected snails and geographic factor combinations in Waijiazhou marshland of Poyang Lake region in China. The multievidence data came from the geographical factor combinations by crossing operation of vegetation coverage grade layer, cattle route distance grade layer, and special environment layer (181 combinations in total) in GIS. The calculation of weight contrast index shows that high vegetation coverage, cattle route distance of <45 meters, and special geographic factor "ground depression" had direct spatial relation with the occurrence of infected snails. The verification by crossing operation in GIS indicated 72.45% of the infected snails concentrated on the areas of positive weight contrast index (sequenced in an order of weight contrast index from high to low), demonstrating the high efficiency of the model established in finding infected snails according to the geographic factor combinations that can be explicitly discerned in the study area.
基金the joint financial support from a research project on "Quantitative models for prediction of strategic mineral resources in China" (Grant No. 201211022) by China Geological Surveythe National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41372007, 41430320 & 41522206)the Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University (Grant No. NCET-13-1016)
文摘Recent studies have pointed out that the widespread iron deposits in southwestern Fujian metallogenic belt(SFMB)(China) are skarn-type deposits associated with the Yanshanian granites. There is still excellent potential for mineral exploration because large areas in this belt are covered by forest. A new predictive model for mapping skarn-type Fe deposit prospectivity in this belt was developed and focused on in this study, using five criteria as evidence:(1) the contact zones of Yanshanian granites(GRANITE);(2) the contact zones within the late Paleozoic marine sedimentary rocks and the carbonate formations(FORMATION);(3) the NE-NNE-trending faults(FAULT);(4) the zones of skarn alterations(SKARN); and(5) the aeromagnetic anomaly(AEROMAGNETIC). The fuzzy weights of evidence(FWof E) method, developed from the classical weights of evidence(Wof E) and based on fuzzy sets and fuzzy probabilities, could provide smaller variances and more accurate posterior probabilities and could effectively minimize the uncertainty caused by omitted or wrongly assigned data and be more flexible than the Wof E. It is an efficient and widely used method for mineral potential mapping. Random forests(RF) is a new and useful method for data-driven predictive mapping of mineral prospectivity method, and needs further scrutiny. Both prospectivity results respectively using the FWof E and RF methods reveal that the prediction model for the skarn-type Fe deposits in the SFMB is successful and efficient. Both methods suggested that the GRANITE and FORMATION are the most valuable evidence maps, followed by SKARN, AEROMAGNETIC, and FAULT. This is coincident with the skarn-type Fe deposit mineral model in the SFMB. The unstable performance experienced when FORMATION was omitted might indicate that the highest uncertainty and risk in follow-up exploration is related to the sequences. In addition, the performance of the RF method for the skarn-type Fe deposits prospectivity in the SFMB is better than the FWof E; therefore, it could be used to guide further exploration of skarn-type Fe prospects in the SFMB.
基金the framework of a scientific-technical cooperation project between the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources(BGR)and the China Geological Survey(CGS)co-funded by the German Ministry of the Economic Affairs and Energy(BMWi)and Ministry of Land and Resources of the People's Republik of China
文摘This study presents a statistical landslide susceptibility assessment(LSA) in a dynamic environment. The study area is located in the eastern part of Lanzhou, NW China. The Lanzhou area has exhibited rapid urbanization rates over the past decade associated with greening, continuous land use change, and geomorphic reshaping activities. To consider the dynamics of the environment in the LSA, multitemporal data for landslide inventories and the corresponding causal factors were collected. The weights of evidence(Wof E) method was used to perform the LSA. Three time stamps, i.e., 2000, 2012, and 2016, were selected to assess the state of landslide susceptibility over time. The results show a clear evolution of the landslide susceptibility patterns that was mainly governed by anthropogenic activities directed toward generating safer building grounds for civil infrastructure. The low and very low susceptibility areas increased by approximately 10% between 2000 and 2016. At the same time, areas of medium, high and very high susceptibility zones decreased proportionally. Based on the results, an approach to design the statistical LSA under dynamic conditions is proposed, the issues and limitations of this approach are also discussed. The study shows that under dynamic conditions, the requirements for data quantity and quality increase significantly. A dynamic environment requires greater effort to estimate the causal relations between the landslides and controlling factors as well as for model validation.
文摘The objective of prospectivity modeling is prediction of the conditional probability of the presence T = 1 or absence T = 0 of a target T given favorable or prohibitive predictors B, or construction of a two classes {0,1} classification of T. A special case of logistic regression called weights-of-evidence （WofE） is geolo- gists＇ favorite method of prospectivity modeling due to its apparent simplicity. However, the numerical simplicity is deceiving as it is implied by the severe mathematical modeling assumption of joint conditional independence of all predictors given the target. General weights of evidence are explicitly introduced which are as simple to estimate as conventional weights, i.e., by counting, but do not require conditional independence. Complementary to the regres- sion view is the classification view on prospectivity modeling. Boosting is the construction of a strong classifier from a set of weak classifiers. From the regression point of view it is closely related to logistic regression. Boost weights-of-evidence （BoostWofE） was introduced into prospectivity modeling to counterbalance violations of the assumption of conditional independence even though relaxation of modeling assumptions with respect to weak classifiers was not the （initial） purpose of boosting. In the original publication of BoostWofE a fabricated dataset was used to ＂validate＂ this approach. Using the same fabricated dataset it is shown that BoostWofE cannot generally compensate lacking condi- tional independence whatever the consecutively proces- sing order of predictors. Thus the alleged features of BoostWofE are disproved by way of counterexamples, while theoretical findings are confirmed that logistic regression including interaction terms can exactly com- pensate violations of joint conditional independence if the predictors are indicators.
文摘With the rapid development of big data technology, the personal credit evaluation industry has entered a new stage. Among them, the evaluation of personal credit based on mobile telecommunications data is one of the hotspots of current research. However, due to the complexity and diversity of personal credit evaluation variables, in order to reduce the complexity of the model and improve the prediction accuracy of the model, we need to reduce the dimension of the input variables. According to the data provided by a mobile telecommunications operator, this paper divides the data into a training sets and verification sets. We perform correlation analysis on each indicator of the data in the training set, and calculate the corresponding IV value based on the WOE value of the selected index, then binning data with SPSS Modeler. The selected variables were modeled using a logistic regression algorithm. In order to make the regression results more practical, we extract the scoring rules according to the results of logistic regression, convert them into the form of score cards, and finally verify the validity of the model.
文摘Mineral resource potential mapping is a complex analytical process,which requires the consideration and the inte-gration of a number of spatial evidences like geological,geomorphological,and wall rock alteration.The aim of this paper is to establish mineral exploration model for copper,lead,and zinc in Lanping basin area using the capability of analytical tools of Geographic Information System(GIS) and remote sensing data to generate maps showing favorable mineralized area.The geo-exploration dataset used for the research includes copper,lead,and zinc deposits,geological maps,topographic maps,structural maps,and ETM+ imagery.Geological features indicative of potential copper,lead,and zinc were extracted from the datasets input in the predictive model.The method of weights of evidence modeling is a probability-based technique for generating mineral potential maps using the spatial distribution of indicative features with respect to the known mineral occur-rences.The method of weights of evidence probabilistic modeling provides a quantitative method for delineating areas with potential of copper,lead,and zinc mineral deposits in the Lanping Basin area.weights(W+,W-) and contrast(C=(W+) -(W-) ) calculations guide the data-driven modeling.The four most important spatial features for exploration guide for copper,lead,and zinc mineralization hosted in the Lanping Basin area are alteration zones,faults,host rocks,and lineaments.The host rocks and deep faults have the strongest spatial association with the known copper,lead,and zinc deposits.The hydrothermal alteration zones have the moderate spatial association with the copper,lead,and zinc deposits.The predicted high-favorability zones do not show the strong affinity with lineaments.The distribution of 22(copper,lead,and zinc) occur-rences in the Lanping Basin was examined in terms of spatial association with various geological phenomena.The analysis of these relationships using GIS and weights of evidence modeling has predicted areas of high and moderate mineral potential,where a little or no mining activities exist.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant Nos.2016YFC0600107&2016YFC0600108)。
文摘The North China district has been subjected to significant research with regard to the ore-forming dynamics,processes,and quantitative forecasting of gold deposits;it accounts for the highest number of gold reserves and annual products in China.Based on the top-level design of geoscience theory and the method adopted by the National Key R&D Project(deep process and metallogenic mechanism of North China Craton(NCC)metallogenic system),this paper systematically collects and constructs the geoscience data(district,camp,and deposit scales)in four key gold districts of North China(Jiaojia-Sanshandao,Southern Zhaoping,Wulong,and Qingchengzi).The settings associated with the geological dynamics of gold deposits were quantitatively and synthetically analyzed,namely:NCC destruction,metallogenic events,genetic models,and exploration models.Three-dimensional(3D)and four-dimensional(4D)geological modeling was performed using the big data on the districts,while the district-scale 3D exploration criteria were integrated to construct a quantitative exploration model.Among them,FLAC3D modelling and the Geo Cube software(version 3.0)were used to implement the numerical simulation of the 3D geological models and the constraints of the fluid saturation parameters of the Jiaojia fault to reconstruct the 4D fault structure models of the Jiaojia fault(with a depth of 5000 m).Using Geo Cube3.0,multiple integration modules(general weights of evidence(Wof E),Boost Wof E,Fuzzy Wof E,Logistic Regression,Information Entropy,and Random Forest)and exploration criteria were integrated,while the C-V fractal classification of A,B and C targets in four districts was carried out.The research results are summarized in the following four areas:(1)Four gold districts in the study area have more than three targets(the depth is 3000 m),and the class A,B and C targets exhibit a good spatial correlation with gold bodies that are controlled by mining engineering at depths greater than 1000 m.(2)The Boost Wof E method was used to identify the target optimization in 3D spaces(at depths of 3000–5000 m)of the Jiaojia-Sanshandao,Southern Zhaoping,and Wulong districts.(3)The general Wof E method is based on the Bayesian theory in 3D space and provides robust integration and target optimization that are suitable for the Jiaojia-Sanshandao and Southern Zhaoping districts in the Jiaodong area;it can also be applied to the Wulong district in the Liaodong area using a quantitative genetic model and an exploration model.Random forest is a multi-objective integration and target optimization method for 3D spaces,and it is suitable for the complex exploration model in the Qingchengzi district of the Liaodong area.The genetic model and exploration criteria associated with the exploration model of the Qingchengzi district were constrained by the common characteristics of the gold fault structure,magmatic rock emplacement in North China,and the strata fold and interlayer detachment structure.(4)Based on the gold reserves and the 3D block unit model of the Sanshandao gold deposit in the Jiaojia-Sanshandao district,the gold contents of the 3D block units in class A and B targets of the ore concentration were estimated to be 65.5%and 25.1%,respectively.The total Au resources of the optimized targets below a depth of 3000 m were 3908 t(including 1700 t reserves),and the total Au resources of the targets at depths from 3000 to 5000 m were 936 t.The study shows that the deep gold deposits in the four gold districts of North China exhibit a strong"transport-deposition"spatial correlation with potential targets.These"transport-deposition"spatial models represent the tectonic-magmatic-hydrothermal activities of the metallogenic system associated with the NCC destruction events and indicate the Au enrichment zones.
