Based on daily precipitation and monthly temperature data in southern China, the winter extreme precipitation changes in southern China have been investigated by using the Mann-Kendall test and the return values of Ge...Based on daily precipitation and monthly temperature data in southern China, the winter extreme precipitation changes in southern China have been investigated by using the Mann-Kendall test and the return values of Generalized Pareto Distribution. The results show that a winter climate catastrophe in southern China occurred around i99I, and the intensity of winter extreme precipitation was strengthened after climate wanning. The anomalous circulation characteristics before and after the climate wanning was further analyzed by using the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data. It is found that the tropical winter monsoon over East Asia is negatively correlated with the precipitation in southeastern China. After climate warming the meridionality of the circulations in middle and high latitudes increases, which is favorable for the southward movement of the cold air from the north. In addition, the increase of the temperature over southern China may lead to the decrease of the differential heating between the continent and the ocean. Consequently, the tropical winter monsoon over East Asia is weakened, which is favorable for the transport of the warm and humid air to southeastem China and the formation of the anomalous convergence of the moisture flux, resulting in large precipitation over southeastern China. As a result, the interaction between the anomalous circulations in the middle and high latitudes and lower latitudes after the climate warming plays a major role in the increase of the winter precipitation intensity over southeastem China.展开更多
This paper comprehensively studies the spatio-temporal characteristics of the frequency of extremely heavy precipitation events over South China by using the daily precipitation data of 110 stations during 1961 to 200...This paper comprehensively studies the spatio-temporal characteristics of the frequency of extremely heavy precipitation events over South China by using the daily precipitation data of 110 stations during 1961 to 2008 and the extremely heavy precipitation thresholds determined for different stations by REOF, trend coefficients, linear trend, Mann-Kendall test and variance analysis. The results are shown as follows. The frequency distribution of extremely heavy precipitation is high in the middle of South China and low in the Guangdong coast and western Guangxi. There are three spatial distribution types of extremely heavy precipitation in South China. The consistent anomaly distribution is the main type. Distribution reversed between the east and the west and between the south and the north is also an important type. Extremely heavy precipitation events in South China mainly occurred in the summer-half of the year. Their frequency during this time accounts for 83.7% of the total frequency. In the 1960 s and 1980 s, extremely heavy precipitation events were less frequent while having an increasing trend from the late 1980 s. Their climatological tendency rates decrease in the central and rise in the other areas of South China, and on average the mean series also shows an upward but insignificant trend at all of the stations. South China's frequency of extremely heavy precipitation events can be divided into six major areas and each of them shows a different inter-annual trend and three of the representative stations experience abrupt changes by showing remarkable increases in terms of Mann-Kendall tests.展开更多
In this study,the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO） in winter （DecemberFebruary） and the precipitation over southem China （SCP） in the following spring （March-May） was investigated.Resu...In this study,the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO） in winter （DecemberFebruary） and the precipitation over southem China （SCP） in the following spring （March-May） was investigated.Results showed an interdecadal change,from strong to weak connection,in their connection.Before the early 1980s,they were highly correlated,with a strong （weak） winter NAO followed by an increased （decreased） spring SCP.However,after the early 1980s,their relationship was weakened significantly.This unstable relationship may be linked to the climatological change of East Asian jet.Before the early 1980s,the wave train along the Asian jet propagated the NAO signal eastward to East Asia and affected local upper-tropospheric atmospheric circulation.A strong NAO in winter led to an anomalous anticyclonic circulation at the south side of 30°N in East Asia in spring,resulting in an increase of SCP.In contrast,after the early 1980s,the wave train pattern along the Asian jet extended eastward due to strengthening of the climatological East Asian jet.Correspondingly,the NAO-related East Asian atmospheric circulations in the upper troposphere shifted eastward,thereby weakening the linkage between the spring SCP and the winter NAO.展开更多
During the boreal winter,abundant persistent heavy rainfall(PHR)amount and significant rainfall variability at subseasonal timescale are generally observed over the southern sector of East China,where the large-scale ...During the boreal winter,abundant persistent heavy rainfall(PHR)amount and significant rainfall variability at subseasonal timescale are generally observed over the southern sector of East China,where the large-scale circulation and moisture transport are tightly connected with the equatorial Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO).As the MJO convections occur over the equatorial Indian Ocean(MJO phases 1-4),the low-level moisture convergence is enhanced over southern China(SC,108°-120°E,21°-26°N)with the divergence to the north.Thus,a positive anomaly of PHR amount appears in SC but a negative anomaly of PHR amount is seen in the Yangtze River valley(YR,113°-122°E,28°-30°N).In contrast,the divergence(convergence)of moisture flux anomalies in the SC(YR)associated with the western equatorial Pacific MJO convections(phases 5-8)limits(benefits)the occurrence of PHR in the SC(YR).The wintertime PHR over southern China is found to undergo a long-term change over the past three decades(1979-2011)with a decreasing(an increasing)trend of PHR amount in the SC(YR).The change in PHR amount occurs consistently with the decadal change in MJO activity.In the earlier decade(1979-1994,E1),the active Indian Ocean(western Pacific)MJO events appeared more frequently while they became less frequent in the recent decade(1995-2011,E2).Accordingly,the Indian Ocean(western Pacific)MJO-related moisture convergence(divergence)anomalies in the SC tend to be weakened(enhanced),contributing to the decrease in PHR amount over the SC in the recent decade.展开更多
Based on China’s monthly precipitation data from 1950 to 2000 and by using the Z-index, 4 categories of flood were estimated. Variation and change of flood in South China were analyzed in terms of percentage areas of...Based on China’s monthly precipitation data from 1950 to 2000 and by using the Z-index, 4 categories of flood were estimated. Variation and change of flood in South China were analyzed in terms of percentage areas of flood. This study reveals that flood areas in South China had a slightly decreasing trend in the latest 50 years. During the winter half year, however, it displayed an increasing trend, especially since the 1990’s. It is also found that flood areas decreased during the summer half year from April to September, but increased during summer, especially since the 1990’s. In the annually first season of precipitation, the flood area has a decreasing trend, but it has a strongly increasing trend in the annually second season. The gradual wet trend during the winter-half year results in wetter climate condition for South China, which will be more favorable for spreading some of the epidemic pathogenic bacterium, crop diseases and insect pests.展开更多
In this study, the intensity of the trough over the Bay of Bengal (BBT) and its association with the southern China precipitation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the Rossby wave propagation along the African-...In this study, the intensity of the trough over the Bay of Bengal (BBT) and its association with the southern China precipitation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the Rossby wave propagation along the African-Asian subtropical Jet stream (AASJ) are investigated on the intraseasonal time scale. The results show that the intensity of the BBT affects the southern China precipitation more directly and to a greater degree than the MJO. The peak amplitude of the BBT tended to occur in phase-3 of the MJO. The strong BBT was substantially modulated by the Rossby wave propagation along the AASJ, which was triggered by the anomalous upstream circulation similar to the pattern of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Therefore, from the perspective of medium- and extended-range weather forecasts, the NAO- like pattern may be regarded as a precursory signal for the strong BBT and thus the southern China precipitation.展开更多
The authors used an atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM） of European Centre Hamburg Model （ECHAM5.4） and investigated the possible impacts of eastern Pacific （EP） and central Pacific （CP） El Ni（n）o o...The authors used an atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM） of European Centre Hamburg Model （ECHAM5.4） and investigated the possible impacts of eastern Pacific （EP） and central Pacific （CP） El Ni（n）o on the winter precipitation anomalies in South China.A composite analysis suggested much more rainfall during the mature phase of EP El Ni（n）o than in the case of CP El Ni（n）o,and their corresponding observed wet centers to be located in the southeast coast and the region to the south of the Yangtze River,respectively.Results obtained on the basis of model-sensitive run imply that the modelsimulated rainfall anomalies agree well with the observation,and the magnitude of simulated rainfall anomalies were found to be reduced when the amplitude of sea surface temperature anomaly （SSTA） forcing of EP and CP El Ni（n）o was cut down.These results imply that the rainfall anomaly in South China is very sensitive not only to the type of El Ni（n）o but also to its intensity.展开更多
The evaporation rate over South China is estimated based on the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation(CMAP)data and the NCEP/DOE reanalysis II data from 1979 to 2007. The temporal variation of eva...The evaporation rate over South China is estimated based on the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation(CMAP)data and the NCEP/DOE reanalysis II data from 1979 to 2007. The temporal variation of evaporation over South China and its relationship to precipitation are discussed. Climatologically,the evaporation rate over South China is the largest in July and smallest in March.In spring and summer,the evaporation rate is approximately one half of the precipitation rate.However,the evaporation rate is approximately equal to the precipitation rate in fall and winter.The year-to-year variation of the evaporation rate over South China is quite in phase with that of the precipitation rate in the period from February to May but out of phase with that of the precipitation rate in early winter.Over South China there is a pronounced decreasing trend in the evaporation in colder seasons and a positive correlation between the evaporation variation and the rainfall variation in spring.In summer,the abnormality of rainfall over South China is closely related to the anomalous evaporation over the northeastern part of the South China Sea and its eastern vicinity.In winter,the rainfall variation in South China has a close linkage with the evaporation variation in a belt area covering the eastern Arabian Sea,the Bay of Bengal,the southeastern periphery of the Plateau,the southern part of South China Sea and the central part of Indonesia.展开更多
The Regional Integrated Environmental Model System （RIEMS 2.0） with NCEP Reanalysis II is utilized to simulate the severe freezing rain and snow storm event over southern China in January 2008, which caused severe d...The Regional Integrated Environmental Model System （RIEMS 2.0） with NCEP Reanalysis II is utilized to simulate the severe freezing rain and snow storm event over southern China in January 2008, which caused severe damage in the region. The relationships between the freezing rain process and the large-scale cir- culation, in terms of the westerly and low-level jets, water vapor transportation, and northerly wind area/intensity indices, were analyzed to tmderstand the mechanisms of the freezing rain occurrence. The results indicate the fol- lowing： （1） RIEMS 2.0 reproduced the pattern of precipi- tation in January 2008 well, especially for the temporal evolution of daily precipitation averaged over the Yangtze River valley and southern China; （2） RIEMS 2.0 repro- duced the persistent trough in the South Branch of the westerlies, of which the southwesterly currents trans- ported abundant moisture into southern China; （3） RIEMS 2.0 reasonably reproduced the pattern of frequencies of light and moderate rain, although it overestimated the frequency of rain in southern China. This study shows that RIEMS 2.0 can be feasibly applied to study extreme weather and climate events in East Asia.展开更多
Based on the daily rainfall datasets of 743 stations in China and the NCEP/NCAR monthly reanalysis data during the period of 1960-2003,the relationship between the anomalous extreme precipitation(EP) in the south of C...Based on the daily rainfall datasets of 743 stations in China and the NCEP/NCAR monthly reanalysis data during the period of 1960-2003,the relationship between the anomalous extreme precipitation(EP) in the south of China and atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere is analyzed.The phenomenon of opposite changes in the sea level pressure and geopotential height anomalies over the Ross Sea and New Zealand is defined as RN,and the index which describes this phenomenon is expressed as RNI.The results show that the RN has barotropic structure and the RNI in May is closely related to the June EP amount in the south of China(SCEP) and the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM).The positive correlations between the May RNI at each level and the June SCEP are significant,and the related simultaneous correlations between the RNI and the June SCEP are also positive,suggesting that the potential impact of RN on the SCEP persists from May to June.Therefore,RN in May can be taken as one of the predictive factors for the June SCEP.Furthermore,one possible physical mechanism by which the RN affects the June SCEP is a barotropic meridional teleconnection emanating from the Southern Hemisphere to the western North Pacific.展开更多
Trends of the tropical cyclones (TCs) influence on China and its four subregions,namely the South China (SC),East China (EC),Northeast China (NEC),and China's inland area (CI),are detected by applying quantile reg...Trends of the tropical cyclones (TCs) influence on China and its four subregions,namely the South China (SC),East China (EC),Northeast China (NEC),and China's inland area (CI),are detected by applying quantile regression to the CMA-STI tropical cyclone best track and related severe wind and precipitation observation datasets.The results indicate that in the past 50 years,the number of TCs affecting China and its four subregions has remained steady,except that the frequency in extremely active years has decreased not only in China as a whole,but also in NEC.In addition,TC activity is found to have weakened over the northwest South China Sea,Guangdong,and Shandong Peninsula.However,the most important changes in seasonality are found in the first quartiles of the number of days of TCs affecting CI.While the extreme values of sustained winds all have decreasing trends,the extreme values of wind gusts are completely different not only among different orders of extreme values,but also among different subregions.However,the trends of extreme TC rainfall,namely the maximum storm precipitation and the maximum 1-h precipitation,are not significant.展开更多
基金National Key Technology Support Program (2009BAC51B03)Scientific Research Foundation for the Returned Overseas Chinese Scholars, Ministry of Education (2007)
文摘Based on daily precipitation and monthly temperature data in southern China, the winter extreme precipitation changes in southern China have been investigated by using the Mann-Kendall test and the return values of Generalized Pareto Distribution. The results show that a winter climate catastrophe in southern China occurred around i99I, and the intensity of winter extreme precipitation was strengthened after climate wanning. The anomalous circulation characteristics before and after the climate wanning was further analyzed by using the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data. It is found that the tropical winter monsoon over East Asia is negatively correlated with the precipitation in southeastern China. After climate warming the meridionality of the circulations in middle and high latitudes increases, which is favorable for the southward movement of the cold air from the north. In addition, the increase of the temperature over southern China may lead to the decrease of the differential heating between the continent and the ocean. Consequently, the tropical winter monsoon over East Asia is weakened, which is favorable for the transport of the warm and humid air to southeastem China and the formation of the anomalous convergence of the moisture flux, resulting in large precipitation over southeastern China. As a result, the interaction between the anomalous circulations in the middle and high latitudes and lower latitudes after the climate warming plays a major role in the increase of the winter precipitation intensity over southeastem China.
基金"Variations of Extremely Heavy Precipitation and Their Response to Global Climate Change",a project in Research Fund for the Science of Tropical Marine and Meteorology(200804)"On the Regional Extremely Heavy Rain in South China Under the Background of Climate Warming,a project in Special China Meteorological Administration Program for Climate Change(CCSF-09-03)Assessment Report on the Climate Change in the South China Region(CCSF-09-11)
文摘This paper comprehensively studies the spatio-temporal characteristics of the frequency of extremely heavy precipitation events over South China by using the daily precipitation data of 110 stations during 1961 to 2008 and the extremely heavy precipitation thresholds determined for different stations by REOF, trend coefficients, linear trend, Mann-Kendall test and variance analysis. The results are shown as follows. The frequency distribution of extremely heavy precipitation is high in the middle of South China and low in the Guangdong coast and western Guangxi. There are three spatial distribution types of extremely heavy precipitation in South China. The consistent anomaly distribution is the main type. Distribution reversed between the east and the west and between the south and the north is also an important type. Extremely heavy precipitation events in South China mainly occurred in the summer-half of the year. Their frequency during this time accounts for 83.7% of the total frequency. In the 1960 s and 1980 s, extremely heavy precipitation events were less frequent while having an increasing trend from the late 1980 s. Their climatological tendency rates decrease in the central and rise in the other areas of South China, and on average the mean series also shows an upward but insignificant trend at all of the stations. South China's frequency of extremely heavy precipitation events can be divided into six major areas and each of them shows a different inter-annual trend and three of the representative stations experience abrupt changes by showing remarkable increases in terms of Mann-Kendall tests.
基金supported by the Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (Meteorology) (GYHY201306026)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41275078)the National Basic Research Program of China (2009CB421407)
文摘In this study,the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO） in winter （DecemberFebruary） and the precipitation over southem China （SCP） in the following spring （March-May） was investigated.Results showed an interdecadal change,from strong to weak connection,in their connection.Before the early 1980s,they were highly correlated,with a strong （weak） winter NAO followed by an increased （decreased） spring SCP.However,after the early 1980s,their relationship was weakened significantly.This unstable relationship may be linked to the climatological change of East Asian jet.Before the early 1980s,the wave train along the Asian jet propagated the NAO signal eastward to East Asia and affected local upper-tropospheric atmospheric circulation.A strong NAO in winter led to an anomalous anticyclonic circulation at the south side of 30°N in East Asia in spring,resulting in an increase of SCP.In contrast,after the early 1980s,the wave train pattern along the Asian jet extended eastward due to strengthening of the climatological East Asian jet.Correspondingly,the NAO-related East Asian atmospheric circulations in the upper troposphere shifted eastward,thereby weakening the linkage between the spring SCP and the winter NAO.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China [grant number 2018YFC1505804]
文摘During the boreal winter,abundant persistent heavy rainfall(PHR)amount and significant rainfall variability at subseasonal timescale are generally observed over the southern sector of East China,where the large-scale circulation and moisture transport are tightly connected with the equatorial Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO).As the MJO convections occur over the equatorial Indian Ocean(MJO phases 1-4),the low-level moisture convergence is enhanced over southern China(SC,108°-120°E,21°-26°N)with the divergence to the north.Thus,a positive anomaly of PHR amount appears in SC but a negative anomaly of PHR amount is seen in the Yangtze River valley(YR,113°-122°E,28°-30°N).In contrast,the divergence(convergence)of moisture flux anomalies in the SC(YR)associated with the western equatorial Pacific MJO convections(phases 5-8)limits(benefits)the occurrence of PHR in the SC(YR).The wintertime PHR over southern China is found to undergo a long-term change over the past three decades(1979-2011)with a decreasing(an increasing)trend of PHR amount in the SC(YR).The change in PHR amount occurs consistently with the decadal change in MJO activity.In the earlier decade(1979-1994,E1),the active Indian Ocean(western Pacific)MJO events appeared more frequently while they became less frequent in the recent decade(1995-2011,E2).Accordingly,the Indian Ocean(western Pacific)MJO-related moisture convergence(divergence)anomalies in the SC tend to be weakened(enhanced),contributing to the decrease in PHR amount over the SC in the recent decade.
基金Project "Statistics of drought in China since 1950 and analysis of its characteristics"(SZ2003C-04)
文摘Based on China’s monthly precipitation data from 1950 to 2000 and by using the Z-index, 4 categories of flood were estimated. Variation and change of flood in South China were analyzed in terms of percentage areas of flood. This study reveals that flood areas in South China had a slightly decreasing trend in the latest 50 years. During the winter half year, however, it displayed an increasing trend, especially since the 1990’s. It is also found that flood areas decreased during the summer half year from April to September, but increased during summer, especially since the 1990’s. In the annually first season of precipitation, the flood area has a decreasing trend, but it has a strongly increasing trend in the annually second season. The gradual wet trend during the winter-half year results in wetter climate condition for South China, which will be more favorable for spreading some of the epidemic pathogenic bacterium, crop diseases and insect pests.
基金supported by the National Key Technologies R&D Program of China (Grant Nos.2009BAC51B02 and 2007BAC29B03)the China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund (Grant No.GYHY200906014)the Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No. 40975033)
文摘In this study, the intensity of the trough over the Bay of Bengal (BBT) and its association with the southern China precipitation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the Rossby wave propagation along the African-Asian subtropical Jet stream (AASJ) are investigated on the intraseasonal time scale. The results show that the intensity of the BBT affects the southern China precipitation more directly and to a greater degree than the MJO. The peak amplitude of the BBT tended to occur in phase-3 of the MJO. The strong BBT was substantially modulated by the Rossby wave propagation along the AASJ, which was triggered by the anomalous upstream circulation similar to the pattern of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Therefore, from the perspective of medium- and extended-range weather forecasts, the NAO- like pattern may be regarded as a precursory signal for the strong BBT and thus the southern China precipitation.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(2009CB421404)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41175071,41221064)the Basic Research Fund of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(2012Z001,2013Z002,2010Z001,and 2010Z003)
文摘The authors used an atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM） of European Centre Hamburg Model （ECHAM5.4） and investigated the possible impacts of eastern Pacific （EP） and central Pacific （CP） El Ni（n）o on the winter precipitation anomalies in South China.A composite analysis suggested much more rainfall during the mature phase of EP El Ni（n）o than in the case of CP El Ni（n）o,and their corresponding observed wet centers to be located in the southeast coast and the region to the south of the Yangtze River,respectively.Results obtained on the basis of model-sensitive run imply that the modelsimulated rainfall anomalies agree well with the observation,and the magnitude of simulated rainfall anomalies were found to be reduced when the amplitude of sea surface temperature anomaly （SSTA） forcing of EP and CP El Ni（n）o was cut down.These results imply that the rainfall anomaly in South China is very sensitive not only to the type of El Ni（n）o but also to its intensity.
基金National Key Program for Developing Basic Research(2009CB421404)Key Program of National Science Foundation of China(40730951)
文摘The evaporation rate over South China is estimated based on the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation(CMAP)data and the NCEP/DOE reanalysis II data from 1979 to 2007. The temporal variation of evaporation over South China and its relationship to precipitation are discussed. Climatologically,the evaporation rate over South China is the largest in July and smallest in March.In spring and summer,the evaporation rate is approximately one half of the precipitation rate.However,the evaporation rate is approximately equal to the precipitation rate in fall and winter.The year-to-year variation of the evaporation rate over South China is quite in phase with that of the precipitation rate in the period from February to May but out of phase with that of the precipitation rate in early winter.Over South China there is a pronounced decreasing trend in the evaporation in colder seasons and a positive correlation between the evaporation variation and the rainfall variation in spring.In summer,the abnormality of rainfall over South China is closely related to the anomalous evaporation over the northeastern part of the South China Sea and its eastern vicinity.In winter,the rainfall variation in South China has a close linkage with the evaporation variation in a belt area covering the eastern Arabian Sea,the Bay of Bengal,the southeastern periphery of the Plateau,the southern part of South China Sea and the central part of Indonesia.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2010CB950900 and 2009CB421100)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 91025003)
文摘The Regional Integrated Environmental Model System （RIEMS 2.0） with NCEP Reanalysis II is utilized to simulate the severe freezing rain and snow storm event over southern China in January 2008, which caused severe damage in the region. The relationships between the freezing rain process and the large-scale cir- culation, in terms of the westerly and low-level jets, water vapor transportation, and northerly wind area/intensity indices, were analyzed to tmderstand the mechanisms of the freezing rain occurrence. The results indicate the fol- lowing： （1） RIEMS 2.0 reproduced the pattern of precipi- tation in January 2008 well, especially for the temporal evolution of daily precipitation averaged over the Yangtze River valley and southern China; （2） RIEMS 2.0 repro- duced the persistent trough in the South Branch of the westerlies, of which the southwesterly currents trans- ported abundant moisture into southern China; （3） RIEMS 2.0 reasonably reproduced the pattern of frequencies of light and moderate rain, although it overestimated the frequency of rain in southern China. This study shows that RIEMS 2.0 can be feasibly applied to study extreme weather and climate events in East Asia.
基金National Basic Research Program of China (2004CB418300, 2010CB833406)National Natural Science Foundation of China (40675042, 40890054, 40871007)
文摘Based on the daily rainfall datasets of 743 stations in China and the NCEP/NCAR monthly reanalysis data during the period of 1960-2003,the relationship between the anomalous extreme precipitation(EP) in the south of China and atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere is analyzed.The phenomenon of opposite changes in the sea level pressure and geopotential height anomalies over the Ross Sea and New Zealand is defined as RN,and the index which describes this phenomenon is expressed as RNI.The results show that the RN has barotropic structure and the RNI in May is closely related to the June EP amount in the south of China(SCEP) and the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM).The positive correlations between the May RNI at each level and the June SCEP are significant,and the related simultaneous correlations between the RNI and the June SCEP are also positive,suggesting that the potential impact of RN on the SCEP persists from May to June.Therefore,RN in May can be taken as one of the predictive factors for the June SCEP.Furthermore,one possible physical mechanism by which the RN affects the June SCEP is a barotropic meridional teleconnection emanating from the Southern Hemisphere to the western North Pacific.
基金sponsored by the Climate Change Specialized Foundation of the China Meteorological Administration(Grant No.CCSF-09-10)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.40805040 and 41075071)
文摘Trends of the tropical cyclones (TCs) influence on China and its four subregions,namely the South China (SC),East China (EC),Northeast China (NEC),and China's inland area (CI),are detected by applying quantile regression to the CMA-STI tropical cyclone best track and related severe wind and precipitation observation datasets.The results indicate that in the past 50 years,the number of TCs affecting China and its four subregions has remained steady,except that the frequency in extremely active years has decreased not only in China as a whole,but also in NEC.In addition,TC activity is found to have weakened over the northwest South China Sea,Guangdong,and Shandong Peninsula.However,the most important changes in seasonality are found in the first quartiles of the number of days of TCs affecting CI.While the extreme values of sustained winds all have decreasing trends,the extreme values of wind gusts are completely different not only among different orders of extreme values,but also among different subregions.However,the trends of extreme TC rainfall,namely the maximum storm precipitation and the maximum 1-h precipitation,are not significant.
