The increasing impact of disasters at local,national,regional and global scales in recent decades has provided enough evidence to urgently direct attention towards the necessity of disaster risk reduction and manageme...The increasing impact of disasters at local,national,regional and global scales in recent decades has provided enough evidence to urgently direct attention towards the necessity of disaster risk reduction and management,and this requires knowledge.Knowledge without communication is barren,and to communicate the risk of disaster it is necessary to understand the perception of the people at risk.In particular,this paper deals with the necessity to delineate strategies of risk communication in pursuance of risk knowledge as a core of disaster risk reduction and management,especially in mountain areas of developing countries.To portray this issue,an analysis of landslide risk perception in terms of experience,landslide risk awareness,exposure,preparedness,and risk communication and trust was undertaken in the municipality of Teziutlán,Puebla,Mexico,an area that has been affected for several decades by episodes of mass movement.Analysis of the responses to a risk perception questionnaire has offered valuable insights in terms of the information and knowledge most required by the people living in the area of interest,in order to devise a realistic and functional strategy to communicate the risk of a landslide disaster.This includes better understanding of controlling factorsand drivers of this risk,and the establishment of potential trusted sources of risk communication.Beyond considering practical matters of risk assessment and management,risk perception and communication can increase the resilience of vulnerable people,and can enhance capacity building for present and future generations.展开更多
Snowline change and snow cover distribution patterns are still poorly understood in steep alpine basins of the Qilian Mountainous region because fast changes in snow cover cannot be observed by current sensing methods...Snowline change and snow cover distribution patterns are still poorly understood in steep alpine basins of the Qilian Mountainous region because fast changes in snow cover cannot be observed by current sensing methods due to their short time scale. To address this issue of daily snowline and snow cover observations, a ground- based EOS 7D camera and four infrared digital hunting video cameras （LTL5210A） were installed around the Hulugou river basin （HRB） in the Qilian Mountains along northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau （38°15′54″N, 99°52′53″E） in September 2011. Pictures taken with the EOS 7D camera were georeferenced and the data from four LIL521oA cameras and snow depth sensors were used to assist snow cover estimation. The results showed that the time-lapse photography can be very useful and precise for monitoring snowline and snow cover in mountainous regions. The snowline and snow cover evolution at this basin can be precisely captured at daily scale. In HRB snow cover is mainly established after October, and the maximum snow cover appeared during February and March. The consistent rise of the snowline and decrease in snow cover appeared after middle part of March. This melt process is strongly associated with air temperature increase.展开更多
In the field of the water resources, hydrologic models have been used to assess water quality performance of complex watersheds and river basins. Hydrologic models can provide essential information for making decision...In the field of the water resources, hydrologic models have been used to assess water quality performance of complex watersheds and river basins. Hydrologic models can provide essential information for making decisions on sustainable management system of water resources within watersheds. The main objective of this study was to validate the performance of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool （SWAT） and the feasibility of using this model as a simulator of runoff at a catchment scale in semi-arid area in Northwestern Tunisia. Calibration and validation of the model output were performed by comparing predicted runoff with corresponding measurements from the Sarrath outlet for the periods 1990-1995 for calibration and 2000-2005 for validation. The time series for the years 1996-1999 showed discrepancies between the measured rainfall and the observed runoff indicating errors due to either the observations or to a dysfunction in the equipments. Sensitivity analysis shows that sensitive parameters for the simulation of discharge include curve number, soil evaporation compensation factor, depth of water in shallow aquifer and slope of subbasin. Statistical comparisons between monthly simulated results and observed data for the calibration period gave a reasonable agreement with a coefficient of determination （R2） greater than 0.75 and Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient （NSE） equal to 0.72. These values were respectively 0.70 and 0.64 for validation period. Overall, the SWAT model has the capability to predict runoff within a complex semi-arid catchment.展开更多
Coastal areas of Bangladesh are especially vulnerable due to their physiographic location and exposure to natural calamities. Around 35 million people living in coastal areas have no access or limited access to safe d...Coastal areas of Bangladesh are especially vulnerable due to their physiographic location and exposure to natural calamities. Around 35 million people living in coastal areas have no access or limited access to safe drinking water. Contamination of water sources by salinity, arsenic or iron are the principal causes of water scarcity. Rising sea levels and unevenness of climatic events due to climate change will exacerbate the situation in coastal areas, especially in the southwestern coastal zone. This study examines one of the vulnerable coastal upazila Tala at Satkhira(an 'upazila' is a medium level administrative unit in Bangladesh) in the southwestern zone of Bangladesh to understand the gravity of the problems. The study develops a GIS based multi-criteria analysis to identify suitable options and locations of fresh water as part of a current and future solution to the problems and further deterioration. To fulfill the objectives, a questionnaire-based GPS guided field survey was conducted to collect details of field level conditions in order to find a suitable solution. Because aquifers are considered the primary source of drinking water, field data have been analyzed for two distinct aquifers, one relatively shallow and one deeper, to understand aquifer quality. Potentiality of different water sources the socioeconomic status of communities, types of water use and corresponding sources and water demand are also evaluated. The analysis finds that alternative water sources that are safe are difficult to find, because both surface and groundwater-based sources are already contaminated, and there are no nearby, easily accessible safe sources. Groundwater-based sources are contaminated by arsenic, iron or salinity, and surface water-based sources are not in use due to maintenance and management issues. In some cases, surface water sources are polluted by flash flooding of high saline water during storm surges or seepage from saline water-based aquacultures. Multiple limitations identified during field observations and field data analysis were considered as an analytical parameter A GIS based multi-criteria analysis incorporated field data, including Geo-spatial and socioeconomic information for road networks, settlement locations, number of households, quality and quantity of existing water sources, water demand and business opportunities. The analysis found some potential options in distributed locations which are consistent with community demand. Suggested options made use of technologies that are already understood and commonly used by communities, like deep tubewells, PSFs(Pond Sand Filter) and WTPs(Water Treatment Plant). In the study area, PSF is the most commonly used method and to make this surface water-based technology sustainable some precautionary measurements are suggested.展开更多
In the present work we model the global ionospheric total electron content (TEC) with the analysis of empirical orthogonal functions (EOF). The obtained statistical eigen modes, which makeup the modeled TEC, consist o...In the present work we model the global ionospheric total electron content (TEC) with the analysis of empirical orthogonal functions (EOF). The obtained statistical eigen modes, which makeup the modeled TEC, consist of two factors: the eigen vectors mapping TEC patterns at latitude and longitude (or local time LT), and the corresponding coefficients displaying the TEC variations in different time scales, i.e., the solar cycle, the yearly (annual and semiannual) and the diurnal universal time variations. It is found that the EOF analysis can separate the TEC variations into chief processes and the first two modes illustrate the most of the ionospheric climate properties. The first mode contains both the semiannual component which shows the semiannual ionospheric anomaly and the annual component which shows the annual or non-seasonal ionospheric anomaly. The second mode contains mainly the annual component and shows the normal seasonal ionospheric variation at most latitudes and local time sectors. The annual component in the second mode also manifests seasonal anomaly of the ionosphere at higher mid-latitudes around noontime. It is concluded that the EOF analysis, as a statistical eigen mode method, is resultful in analyzing the ionospheric climatology hence can be used to construct the empirical model for the ionospheric climatology.展开更多
基金the financial support provided by CONACyT through the research project 156242
文摘The increasing impact of disasters at local,national,regional and global scales in recent decades has provided enough evidence to urgently direct attention towards the necessity of disaster risk reduction and management,and this requires knowledge.Knowledge without communication is barren,and to communicate the risk of disaster it is necessary to understand the perception of the people at risk.In particular,this paper deals with the necessity to delineate strategies of risk communication in pursuance of risk knowledge as a core of disaster risk reduction and management,especially in mountain areas of developing countries.To portray this issue,an analysis of landslide risk perception in terms of experience,landslide risk awareness,exposure,preparedness,and risk communication and trust was undertaken in the municipality of Teziutlán,Puebla,Mexico,an area that has been affected for several decades by episodes of mass movement.Analysis of the responses to a risk perception questionnaire has offered valuable insights in terms of the information and knowledge most required by the people living in the area of interest,in order to devise a realistic and functional strategy to communicate the risk of a landslide disaster.This includes better understanding of controlling factorsand drivers of this risk,and the establishment of potential trusted sources of risk communication.Beyond considering practical matters of risk assessment and management,risk perception and communication can increase the resilience of vulnerable people,and can enhance capacity building for present and future generations.
基金supported by the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41401078, 91025011, 41222001)National Basic Research Program of China (2013CBA01806)
文摘Snowline change and snow cover distribution patterns are still poorly understood in steep alpine basins of the Qilian Mountainous region because fast changes in snow cover cannot be observed by current sensing methods due to their short time scale. To address this issue of daily snowline and snow cover observations, a ground- based EOS 7D camera and four infrared digital hunting video cameras （LTL5210A） were installed around the Hulugou river basin （HRB） in the Qilian Mountains along northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau （38°15′54″N, 99°52′53″E） in September 2011. Pictures taken with the EOS 7D camera were georeferenced and the data from four LIL521oA cameras and snow depth sensors were used to assist snow cover estimation. The results showed that the time-lapse photography can be very useful and precise for monitoring snowline and snow cover in mountainous regions. The snowline and snow cover evolution at this basin can be precisely captured at daily scale. In HRB snow cover is mainly established after October, and the maximum snow cover appeared during February and March. The consistent rise of the snowline and decrease in snow cover appeared after middle part of March. This melt process is strongly associated with air temperature increase.
文摘In the field of the water resources, hydrologic models have been used to assess water quality performance of complex watersheds and river basins. Hydrologic models can provide essential information for making decisions on sustainable management system of water resources within watersheds. The main objective of this study was to validate the performance of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool （SWAT） and the feasibility of using this model as a simulator of runoff at a catchment scale in semi-arid area in Northwestern Tunisia. Calibration and validation of the model output were performed by comparing predicted runoff with corresponding measurements from the Sarrath outlet for the periods 1990-1995 for calibration and 2000-2005 for validation. The time series for the years 1996-1999 showed discrepancies between the measured rainfall and the observed runoff indicating errors due to either the observations or to a dysfunction in the equipments. Sensitivity analysis shows that sensitive parameters for the simulation of discharge include curve number, soil evaporation compensation factor, depth of water in shallow aquifer and slope of subbasin. Statistical comparisons between monthly simulated results and observed data for the calibration period gave a reasonable agreement with a coefficient of determination （R2） greater than 0.75 and Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient （NSE） equal to 0.72. These values were respectively 0.70 and 0.64 for validation period. Overall, the SWAT model has the capability to predict runoff within a complex semi-arid catchment.
基金The Colleges and Universities Humanities and Social Science Fund Project in Jiangxi Province(JC1414).
文摘Coastal areas of Bangladesh are especially vulnerable due to their physiographic location and exposure to natural calamities. Around 35 million people living in coastal areas have no access or limited access to safe drinking water. Contamination of water sources by salinity, arsenic or iron are the principal causes of water scarcity. Rising sea levels and unevenness of climatic events due to climate change will exacerbate the situation in coastal areas, especially in the southwestern coastal zone. This study examines one of the vulnerable coastal upazila Tala at Satkhira(an 'upazila' is a medium level administrative unit in Bangladesh) in the southwestern zone of Bangladesh to understand the gravity of the problems. The study develops a GIS based multi-criteria analysis to identify suitable options and locations of fresh water as part of a current and future solution to the problems and further deterioration. To fulfill the objectives, a questionnaire-based GPS guided field survey was conducted to collect details of field level conditions in order to find a suitable solution. Because aquifers are considered the primary source of drinking water, field data have been analyzed for two distinct aquifers, one relatively shallow and one deeper, to understand aquifer quality. Potentiality of different water sources the socioeconomic status of communities, types of water use and corresponding sources and water demand are also evaluated. The analysis finds that alternative water sources that are safe are difficult to find, because both surface and groundwater-based sources are already contaminated, and there are no nearby, easily accessible safe sources. Groundwater-based sources are contaminated by arsenic, iron or salinity, and surface water-based sources are not in use due to maintenance and management issues. In some cases, surface water sources are polluted by flash flooding of high saline water during storm surges or seepage from saline water-based aquacultures. Multiple limitations identified during field observations and field data analysis were considered as an analytical parameter A GIS based multi-criteria analysis incorporated field data, including Geo-spatial and socioeconomic information for road networks, settlement locations, number of households, quality and quantity of existing water sources, water demand and business opportunities. The analysis found some potential options in distributed locations which are consistent with community demand. Suggested options made use of technologies that are already understood and commonly used by communities, like deep tubewells, PSFs(Pond Sand Filter) and WTPs(Water Treatment Plant). In the study area, PSF is the most commonly used method and to make this surface water-based technology sustainable some precautionary measurements are suggested.
基金supported by the Special Fund for State Seismology Bureau (Grant No. 201008007)the KIP Pilot Project of CAS (Grant No. YYYT-1110-02)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40974090, 41131066)the National Basic Research Program of China ("973" Project) (Grant No. 2011CB811405)
文摘In the present work we model the global ionospheric total electron content (TEC) with the analysis of empirical orthogonal functions (EOF). The obtained statistical eigen modes, which makeup the modeled TEC, consist of two factors: the eigen vectors mapping TEC patterns at latitude and longitude (or local time LT), and the corresponding coefficients displaying the TEC variations in different time scales, i.e., the solar cycle, the yearly (annual and semiannual) and the diurnal universal time variations. It is found that the EOF analysis can separate the TEC variations into chief processes and the first two modes illustrate the most of the ionospheric climate properties. The first mode contains both the semiannual component which shows the semiannual ionospheric anomaly and the annual component which shows the annual or non-seasonal ionospheric anomaly. The second mode contains mainly the annual component and shows the normal seasonal ionospheric variation at most latitudes and local time sectors. The annual component in the second mode also manifests seasonal anomaly of the ionosphere at higher mid-latitudes around noontime. It is concluded that the EOF analysis, as a statistical eigen mode method, is resultful in analyzing the ionospheric climatology hence can be used to construct the empirical model for the ionospheric climatology.
