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面向多重耗损失效的民用飞机运行风险评估
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作者 吴雨婷 陆中 +1 位作者 宋海靖 周伽 《北京航空航天大学学报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2023年第10期2807-2816,共10页
针对民用飞机部件具有多重失效的特点,提出一种面向多重耗损失效模式的运行风险评估方法。以机队运行失效数据为样本,构建基于混合威布尔分布的多重失效模型,提出基于期望最大(EM)算法的混合威布尔分布参数估计方法,并利用粒子群优化(P... 针对民用飞机部件具有多重失效的特点,提出一种面向多重耗损失效模式的运行风险评估方法。以机队运行失效数据为样本,构建基于混合威布尔分布的多重失效模型,提出基于期望最大(EM)算法的混合威布尔分布参数估计方法,并利用粒子群优化(PSO)算法对EM算法进行优化,提高了参数估计精度;以基于混合威布尔分布的多重失效模型为基础,利用蒙特卡罗仿真的方法提出多重失效模式影响下的机队缺陷飞机数量(DA)预测算法;构建贝叶斯网络模型以分析初因事件发生条件下的不安全后果发生概率(CP),并结合由历史运营经验得到的死亡率(IR)和未检出率(ND),计算总体未纠正机队风险(RT)。实例表明:所提风险评估方法可以直接应用于多重失效模式导致的机队风险评估,所提模型参数估计方法相比极大似然估计和最小二乘估计方法,均方根误差分别降低了80.6%和85.7%。 展开更多
关键词 风险评估 多重失效模式 参数估计 期望最大算法 蒙特卡罗仿真 贝叶斯网络
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Dynamic probabilistic design technique for multi-component system with multi-failure modes 被引量:2
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作者 ZHANG Chun-yi LU Cheng +2 位作者 FEI Cheng-wei JING Hui-zhe LI Cheng-wei 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2018年第11期2688-2700,共13页
For unacceptable computational efficiency and accuracy on the probabilistic analysis of multi-component system with multi-failure modes,this paper proposed multi-extremum response surface method(MERSM).MERSM model was... For unacceptable computational efficiency and accuracy on the probabilistic analysis of multi-component system with multi-failure modes,this paper proposed multi-extremum response surface method(MERSM).MERSM model was established based on quadratic polynomial function by taking extremum response surface model as the sub-model of multi-response surface method.The dynamic probabilistic analysis of an aeroengine turbine blisk with two components,and their reliability of deformation and stress failures was obtained,based on thermal-structural coupling technique,by considering the nonlinearity of material parameters and the transients of gas flow,gas temperature and rotational speed.The results show that the comprehensive reliability of structure is 0.9904 when the allowable deformations and stresses of blade and disk are 4.78×10–3 m and 1.41×109 Pa,and 1.64×10–3 m and 1.04×109 Pa,respectively.Besides,gas temperature and rotating speed severely influence the comprehensive reliability of system.Through the comparison of methods,it is shown that the MERSM holds higher computational precision and speed in the probabilistic analysis of turbine blisk,and MERSM computational precision satisfies the requirement of engineering design.The efforts of this study address the difficulties on transients and multiple models coupling for the dynamic probabilistic analysis of multi-component system with multi-failure modes. 展开更多
关键词 probabilistic analysis multi-extremum response surface method MULTI-COMPONENT multi-failure modes
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